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Forecastinginfrastructureinvestmentneedsfor50countries,7sectorsthrough2040
SUBMITTEDBYCHRISHEATHCOTEONTHU,08/10/2017
TheGlobalInfrastructureOutlookisalandmarkcountrybasedonlinetoolandreportdevelopedbytheGlobalInfrastructureHubwithOxfordEconomics,
whichforecastsinfrastructureinvestmentneedsacross50countriesandsevensectorsto2040.
Althoughtherearealreadyforecastsforinfrastructureinvestmentinthemarket,thepublicandprivatesectorsindicatedtheirneedforfresh,country
leveldata.Outlookwascreatedtomeetthatknowledgegap.
Forthefirsttimewehavedataaboutwhateachcountryneedstospendineachsector,andimportantlythegapbetweenwhatneedstobespentand
currentspendingtrends.
Whatdotheresultsshow?
By2040,theglobalpopulationwillgrowbyalmost2billionpeoplea25%increase.Ruraltourbanmigrationwillcontinuewiththeurbanpopulation
growingby46%,triggeringmassivedemandforinfrastructuresupport.
Outlookforecaststhatglobalinfrastructureinvestmentneedstoreach$94trillionby2040 tokeeppacewithprofoundeconomicanddemographic
changesacrosstheglobe.
AddtheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)ofuniversalprovisionofcleanwater,sanitation,andelectricity,andthetotalcostrisesto$97trillion.
Theanalysisrevealsashortfallinneededspendingof$18trillion19%oftheforecastneed.
ClosingthegapandmeetingtheSDGswillrequirespendingasaproportionofglobalGDPtogrowfromthecurrentlevelof3%to3.7%.
Beyondtheseglobalfiguresarethecountryandsectorspecificstoriesthatrepresenttherealchallengeoffindingandfundinginfrastructureprojectsthat
enhancepeopleslives.
Keyfindings
1.OverhalfofglobalinfrastructureinvestmentneedsareinAsia.
ThreeofthefivecountrieswiththegreatestinfrastructureneedareinAsia(China,IndiaandJapan),withthosecountriescomprising39%ofglobal
infrastructureinvestmentneeds.Chinaaloneisexpectedtoneed$28trillionininfrastructureinvestment,whichismorethanhalfofAsiastotalneedsand
http://blogs.worldbank.org/ppps/forecasting-infrastructure-investment-needs-50-countries-7-sectors-through-2040 1/5
9/1/2017 Forecasting infrastructure investment needs for 50 countries, 7 sectors through 2040 | ppps
30%ofglobalneeds.
2.TheUnitedStateshasthelargestinvestmentgap,forecasttobe$3.8trillion.
TheUnitedStatesisforecasttohavethelargestinfrastructure
investmentgapthedifferencebetweeninvestmentneedsand
currenttrendsininvestmentof$3.8trillion,doublethenext
largestofChinaat$1.9trillion,followedbyBrazilat$1.1trillion
andRussiaat$0.7trillion.
3.OncurrenttrendsininvestmenttheworldwillfallshortofmeetingtheSDGsby2030.
Outlooklookedspecificallyatthegoalstoensureuniversalaccesstocleanwaterandsanitation,andelectricitysupply(SDGs7.1,6.1and6.2).
Whatitfoundisconcerningandshouldbeaglobalwakeupcall.
Ouranalysisshowstomeetthesegoalswouldcost$5.8trillionfromnowuntil2030.Weestimatethat$3.5trillionofthisfiguremorethan50%will
notbemetby2030.
4.Themajorityofglobalinfrastructureinvestmentgapisintheroadandelectricitysectors.
Outlookestimatesan$8trillioninfrastructureinvestmentgapinroads,whichrepresentsmorethanhalfofthetotalglobalinfrastructureinvestmentgap.
Althoughtheelectricitysectorrepresentsthesecondlargestinfrastructureinvestmentgapat$2.9trillion,themajorityofthatgapisindevelopingand
emergingcountries.
Innovativemethodology
Outlookinvolvedoverayearsworkapplyingaround50datasetsandauniqueapproachtoforecastinginfrastructureinvestmentneeds.
Weappliedadetailedtopdownstatisticalapproach,whichusedsevenbespokeeconometricmodelstoproduce350forecastscoveringeachofthe50
countriesandsevensectors.Theseforecaststakeintoaccountpastspending,countriesspecificeconomicanddemographiccharacteristics,andthe
currentqualityofinfrastructure.
http://blogs.worldbank.org/ppps/forecasting-infrastructure-investment-needs-50-countries-7-sectors-through-2040 2/5
9/1/2017 Forecasting infrastructure investment needs for 50 countries, 7 sectors through 2040 | ppps
Outlookisaccessedviaourreportandthroughouronlinetoolwheredatacanbecustomizedanddownloaded:http://outlook.gihub.org.
WeanticipatethatOutlookwillbecomeausefulsourceofdataandguidancetogovernmentsseekingtoreformandimprovetheirinfrastructure
markets.
Itwillcomplementourothertools:
InfraCompass,atoolidentifyingthekeydriversofsuccessfulplanninganddelivery,andallowsjurisdictionstofocusonthemostimportantdrivers
affectingtheirinfrastructuremarket.
ProjectPipeline,anonlineplatformwithearlystagedataongovernmentinfrastructureprojectstohelptheprivatesector.
AllocatingRisksinPublicPrivatePartnerships,aguidetotypicalriskallocationininfrastructureprojectsbetweenpublicandprivatepartners.
MultilateralDevelopmentBankReportforG20,keyadvicetoG20onhowthesebankscanworktocrowdinprivatefinanceforpublic
infrastructure.
ConcessionManagementofPublicPrivatePartnershipProjects,practicalguidelinesforprojectauthoritiestohelpconcessionmanagementof
PPPstobereleasedlaterthisyear.
YoucanalsofollowtheGlobalInfrastructureHubonTwitter.
Disclaimer:ThecontentofthisblogdoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBankGroup,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,stafforthe
governmentsitrepresents.TheWorldBankGroupdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedata,findings,oranalysisinthispost.
RelatedPostsfromtheGIHub:
InfraCompass:Helpinggovernmentssettheirinfrastructurepoliciesintherightdirection
TheGlobalInfrastructureProjectPipeline:Linkingprivateinvestorswithpublicinfrastructureprojects
Afieldguidetoinfrastructure
Comments
Iwishthesestepswillbe
SUBMITTEDBYMEHEDIHASANONTHU,08/10/201711:55
Iwishthesestepswillbeexecutedwithmassparticipation.
reply
Theasiancountriesarein
SUBMITTEDBYLIAQATHAYATONTHU,08/10/201713:29
Theasiancountriesareinshortageoftechnicalmanpowerforcomplextrades?Howtheycancopethissituation
reply
Really,globalproduction
SUBMITTEDBYDR.MOHAMEDTAHERABDELRAZIKHAMADA,PH.DONTHU,08/10/201713:42
Really,globalproductionshouldmatchwithpopulationgrowth,speciallyin
thecriticalprojectsofinfrastructuresuchascleanwater,sanitation,andelectricity.ThisabovestatisticalarticlewhichiswrittenbyMr.Chris
Heathcoteisstatisticalglobalwakeupcall,anditshouldbefollowedbyother
globalreminders.
Mostlythedevelopingcountriesarethegreatlyaffectedbytheglobalinfrastructureinvestmentgap.
Projectsshouldbemadetosupportprivatesectorsandspreadtherealknowledgeoffamilyplanningaccompaniedrealeducationandhealth
programes
Governmentsandworldagencies,mainlytheWorldBank,shouldpromotethe
linksinpublic,private,partnershipprojects(PPPS)toavoidanyexpectedrisks
whetherfinaciallyorstructurallyrisks.
YoursVeryRespectfully,
Dr.MohamedTaherAbdelrazikHamada,Ph.D
RetiredProfessoratStrayerUniversity,USA
[*editedforprivacy*]
reply
Canyougivethebreakdowns
SUBMITTEDBYPAULMUKOKIONSUN,08/27/201714:37
CanyougivethebreakdownsofAfriac'sinfrastructuregap(needsvscurrentinvestmentneeds)forAfrica,countrybycountr,andsectorbysector.I
amstudyingPhDinthisarea,butdon'thavethelatestdata.
reply
http://blogs.worldbank.org/ppps/forecasting-infrastructure-investment-needs-50-countries-7-sectors-through-2040 3/5
9/1/2017 Forecasting infrastructure investment needs for 50 countries, 7 sectors through 2040 | ppps
Migrationfromruralplaces
SUBMITTEDBYAIGULONTHU,08/31/201709:04
Migrationfromruralplacescouldbestoppedifunemploymentissuesaresolvedinstilldevelopingcountries,especiallyinruralremoteareas.Agood
infrastructuresolvesonlyinfrustructureissues.Whataboutagoodandclearvisionofhowtomaintainthatbuiltinfrustructure?Withoutgoodhuman
resourcesitmightnotbethatsustainable.Thatismyopinion.
reply
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http://blogs.worldbank.org/ppps/forecasting-infrastructure-investment-needs-50-countries-7-sectors-through-2040 4/5
9/1/2017 Forecasting infrastructure investment needs for 50 countries, 7 sectors through 2040 | ppps
http://blogs.worldbank.org/ppps/forecasting-infrastructure-investment-needs-50-countries-7-sectors-through-2040 5/5