04 Study Effect of Landuse Change On Hydrological Character 2012

STUDY ON EFFECTS
OF LAND USE CHANGE

ON HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTIC OF WATERSHEDS
NOVEMBER 2012
Prepared by: Center for Water Resources Research and Development

TA 7189-INO: INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING
FOR INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (IWRM)
IN THE 6 CI'S RIVER BASIN TERRITORY - PACKAGE B
In association with:
DEMIS B.V - EUROCONSULT MOTT MACDONALD -SIGNIFICANCE B.V - PT GEO ISSEC

PT INDEC INTERNUSA - PT MULTI AREA CONINDO - PT PPA CONSULTANTS - PT SUPRAHARMONIA CONSULTINDO -
PT TERA BUANA MANGGALA JAYA - PT TRANS INTRA ASIA - PT WASECO TIRTA - PT WIDYA GRAHA ASANA - PT WIRATMAN & ASSOCIATES
Effects of Land Use Changes Final Report
FINAL REPORT
STUDY ON EFFECTS OF LAND USE CHANGES

ON HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF WATERSHEDS
IN THE 6 CIS RIVER BASIN TERITORY
Research Center for Water Resources i

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 6
1.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 6
1.2 Objectives ........................................................................................................... 7
1.3 Expected Results (outputs/outcomes): ................................................................ 7
1.4 Methodology........................................................................................................ 7
2 CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL ............................................................................... 8
2.1 Sacramento Model .............................................................................................. 8
2.2 Data Availability for Callibration ......................................................................... 11
2.3 Ciujung River..................................................................................................... 12
2.4 Ciliwung River ................................................................................................... 15
2.4.1 Calibration for Low Flow Time-Series ......................................................... 16
2.4.2 Calibration for Flood Event ......................................................................... 19
2.5 Citarum River .................................................................................................... 21
3 LOW FLOW ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 24
3.1 Ciujung River..................................................................................................... 24
3.2 Ciliwung River ................................................................................................... 26
3.3 Citarum River .................................................................................................... 27
4 FLOOD ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 28
4.1 Simulation for the year of 2002 and 2006 .......................................................... 28
4.2 Recalibrating the deforestation case.................................................................. 29
5 CONCLUDING REMARKS ...................................................................................... 31
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 31
Research Center for Water Resources 2

TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Concept of Sacramento Model (Burnash, 1973) .................................................. 8

Figure 2 Model Component (Burnash, 1973) ..................................................................... 9
Figure 3 Availability of half-monthly river discharges data................................................ 11
Figure 4 Ciujung-Kragilan using BTA-155 Sacramento parameter................................... 12
Figure 5 Ciujung-Kragilan using modified Sacramento parameter ................................... 12
Figure 6 Sacramento parameter from BTA-155 study...................................................... 13
Figure 7 Improved Sacramento parameter modified in this study .................................... 13
Figure 8 Ciujung-Rangkasbitung using Sacramento parameter from BTA-155 Study ...... 14
Figure 9 Ciujung-Rangkasbitung using improved Sacramento parameter ....................... 14
Figure 10 Land use change of forest and urban area in Ciliwung-Katulampa catchment
area ................................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 11 Ciliwung-Katulampa using Sacramento parameter from BTA-155 ................... 16
Figure 12 Ciliwung-Katulampa using improved Sacramento parameter ........................... 16
Figure 13 Ciliwung Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 1992 ............................. 17
Figure 14 Ciliwung-Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 1997 ............................. 17
Figure 15 Ciliwung-Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 2003 ............................. 18
Figure 16 Hourly rainfall at Citeko and river discharge Ciliwung at Katulampa................. 19
Figure 17 Katulampa Calibration February 1996 ............................................................. 20
Figure 18 Sacramento Parameter for February 1996....................................................... 20
Figure 19 Land use change of forest and urban area in Citarum River Basin .................. 21
Figure 20 Cigulung-Maribaya using the BTA-155 parameter for the year of 1985-2000... 22
Figure 21 Cigulung-Maribaya calibrated for the year of 1985-2000.................................. 22
Figure 22 Sacramento parameter for Cigulung-Maribaya 1985-2000 .............................. 23
Figure 23 Ciujung-Kragilan using improved parameter for 1981-2005 ............................. 24
Figure 24 Ciujung Rangkasbitung using improved parameters for 1981-2005 ............... 25
Figure 25 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa using BTA-155 parameter for the year of
1999-2006 ....................................................................................................................... 26
Figure 26 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa using improved parameter for the year of
1999-2006 ....................................................................................................................... 26
Figure 27 Cigulung Maribaya simulation for the year of 2001-2006 ................................. 27
Figure 28 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa 19 January 15 February 2002 using
parameter of 1996 ........................................................................................................... 28
Figure 29 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa 8 January 26 February 2006 using
parameter of 1996 ........................................................................................................... 29
Figure 30 Ciliwung-Katulampa 19 January 15 February 2002 recalibrated ................... 29
Figure 31 Ciliwung-Katulampa 8 January 26 February 2006 recalibrated ..................... 30

TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1 Sacramento Parameter ....................................................................................... 10

Table 2 List of Discharge Stations for Sacramento Calibration ........................................ 11

GLOSSARY
6 Cis RBT River Basin territory covering Cidanau, Ciujung, Cidurian + Ciliwung, Cisadane + Citarum
Balai PDAS Regional Board for management of River Basins (under Ministry of Forestry)
Balai PSDA Provincial River Basin Management Board
BBWS Greater River Basin Territory Board (Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai), at MPW level
BTA 155 Cisadane - Cimanuk Integrated Water Resources Development project
Strategic WRM Planning project in Indonesia (1985 1991)
BWRMP 1) Basin Water Resources Management Plan (Rencana)
2) Project for formulation of BWRMP (2001 2004)
BWRP Basin Water Resources Planning (1996 2001, later changed to BWRMP)
DGWR Directorate General for Water Resources at MPW
DMI Domestic, Municipal and Industrial (water demand)
FEWS\HYMOS Hydrological data processing system based on Flood Early Warning System
FHM Flood Hazard Mapping, component under Jakarta Flood Management (2007 2010)
GIS Geographic Information System
GOI Government of Indonesia
IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management
JABOTABEK Area comprising Jakarta, Bogor, Tangerang, Bekasi. Later extended with Depok to become
JABODETABEK and later also included Puncak and Cianjur in JABODETABEKPUNJUR
JWRMS JABOTABEK WRM Study
MIS Management Information System
MPW Ministry of Public Works
PSDA WRM
PTPA Present form of Water Resources Council at Provincial Level
PusAir Agency for Research and Development in Water Resources, under MPW
RBT River Basin Territory (Wilayah Sungai, WS)
RIBASIM River Basin Simulation Model, Decision Support System for WR planning /management

1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
The effect of changes in land use on hydrological characteristics of low and high
discharges have been widely assumed to imply that decreasing vegetative cover would
result in lower base flow during dry season and increasing flood discharges after storms.
However, no quantitative data have been collected to confirm these assumptions, and
information that correlates the land use change and the changing of hydrological
properties is still based on hypotheses.
Adequate water resources management requires confirmation of this kind of relationships
to assess the relative benefit of various conservation strategies. In component B.2 of the
6 Cis Project, various strategies for zoning will be assessed. Therefore it is considered
necessary to verify the assumed effect of changing land use, especially the change from
rural to urban area and its related decrease in vegetative cover, concerning low flows and
flood discharges.
The RIBASIM model uses the Sacramento model for establishment of rainfall-runoff
relationships. However, the model assumes values for several parameters based on
experience from the past, and the effect of changes from a rural area to an urban area are
not yet verified. Therefore one or two areas with sufficient data to simulate flows based on
sufficient time series to re-calibrate the rainfall runoff relationship is needed. After
assessment of the new values for the parameters to reflect the changes in land use, one
can extrapolate this relationship with the specific factors for the other basins in 6 Cis. This
is part of the standard practice when simulating with RIBASIM. This has also been
discussed in the 6 Cis Inception Report on page 29, under point 2, and in the paragraph
starting with " The Sacramento rainfall-run-off......".
There are two stations in the 6 Cis area with sufficient time series for hourly and daily
discharges: Katulampa in the Ciliwung river just upstream Bogor and Nanjung in the
Citarum river just upstream Saguling. The catchment of Katulampa (app 150 km2)
represents a good example of changes in land use from rural to urban area. The
catchment of Nanjung is much larger (app 1500 km2), and therefore it is not realistic to
relate the changes to changes in land use, since also river normalization has taken place,
and many other factors may have an influence. Therefore Nanjung is not proposed for this
study.
In order to have a comparison from another basin it is necessary to look for in data base
for other suitable areas, and there might be from hourly discharge data for Brantas and
Bengawan Solo. Using a second site with sufficient data a more reliable estimation can be
made of the land use - runoff relationship, which will improve the accuracy of extrapolation
to other catchments. The extra costs for the extra site are not much, because the main
problem is to develop the methodology.
Data collection and validation for rainfall data and discharges has been done, and they
are ready for use. Data for land use changes are also available through available land use
mapping (Geocover 1990, 2000, 2007). What has to be done now is to identify the land
use changes for the Katulampa catchment, and relate this to various series of rainfall and
discharge data, in order to assess the most likely changes for the applicable rainfall-runoff
parameters. Only in this way we can get a better idea about the correlation between the
land use and the runoff data, which can be extrapolated to other areas.

1.2 Objectives
Determine quantitatively the effect of land use changes on low flow and flood discharge
for some hydrological stations in the area of 6 Cis.
This will be done by selecting two suitable river discharge gauging stations with adequate
information concerning river discharges and simultaneous changes in land use for the
catchment upstream of the river gauging station.
1.3 Expected Results (outputs/outcomes):

Correlation between the land use change and the change in low flow and flood discharge.
Model parameter changes best reflecting the changes in condition of land use.
1.4 Methodology
The methodology is as follows:
- Rainfall-runoff analysis using Sacramento model and other methodologies applied

in HYMOS and RIBASIM,
- Comparing the measured discharges with the results of rainfall-runoff analysis

using the same parameter for the present condition, and examine the differences
of the low flow and the flood discharge before and after the land use change.
- Assess the parameters that better reflect the measured values
- Another approach is to calibrate the present condition and examine the

parameters that have to be changed to fit the present condition.

2 CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL
2.1 Sacramento Model

In the simulation of the runoff process by the Sacramento model a distinction is made
between the land phase and the channel phase. The land phase is represented by an
explicit moisture accounting lumped parameter model. The catchment area is divided into
one or more segments discharging to the main channels. Within every segment areal
homogeneity with respect to rainfall and basin characteristics is assumed. The distance is
not explicitly treated in the simulation process as is time. In this respect the lumped
approach deviates from the distributed catchment models.
The concept of the Sacramento model with the major storages and flow components is
shown in Figure 1 (Burnash et al, 1973). The components of the model are shown in
Figure 2. In this figure also the names of the components used in the menu are indicated.
The components of the model, their working and their interaction are elaborated below.
Note that for the storages a distinction is made between capacity (indicated with the letter
M at the end of the name) and actual content (indicated with a C at the end).
Figure 1 Concept of Sacramento Model (Burnash, 1973)

Figure 2 Model Component (Burnash, 1973)
There are 17 Sacramento parameters, which can be classified as direct runoff parameter,
upper soil moisture parameter, percolation parameter, and lower zone parameter.
Direct Runoff Parameter

PCTIM: permanent impervious fraction
ADIMP: additional impervious fraction
SARVA: fraction covered by streams, lakes, etc.
Upper Soil Moisture Zone Parameter

UZTWM: Upper Zone Tension Water reservoir capacity
UZFWM: Upper Zone Free Water reservoir capacity
UZK: Upper Zone lateral drainage rate
Percolation Parameter
ZPERC: proportional increase percolation from saturated to dry condition
REXP: exponent in percolation demand equation
Lower Zone Parameter

LZTWM: Lower Zone Tension Water reservoir capacity
LZFPM: Lower Zone Free Primary reservoir capacity
LZFSM: Lower Zone Free Supplementary reservoir capacity
LZPK: drainage rate of Lower Zone Primary reservoir
LZSK: drainage rate of Lower Zone Supplementary reservoir
PFREE: fraction percolation water directly to lower zone free
RSERV: fraction of lower zone free not available for transpiration)
SIDE: ratio of unobserved to observed base-flow
SSOUT: fixed rate of flow lost from channel

In the BTA-155 Project (Cisadane-Cimanuk Integrated Water Resources Development),

Sacramento model has been calibrated, resulting one set of parameter for the all river
basins in the Northern part of West Java. Using this parameter, half-monthly runoff is
generated from rainfall time-series for all water districts. It should be noted that this
parameter is recalibrated for Bengawan Solo River Basin in the study of BTA-155 Phase
II. The lists of parameters are as follows.
Table 1 Sacramento Parameter
Parameter BTA-155 Bengawan Solo Suggested
Storage parameters
1. UZTWM : 50 175 50-175
2. UZFWM : 150 90 6-90
3. LZTWM : 150 300 50-600
4. LZFSM : 50 50
5. LZFPM : 300 300
Initial storage:
6. UZTWC : 50 50
7. UZFWC : 50 30
8. LZTWC : 150 100
9. LZFWC : 50 25
10. LZFPC : 250 150
Other parameters:
11. UZK : 0.080 0.18 0.080
12. LZSK : 0.035 0.035
13. LZPK : 0.005 0.005
14. ZPERC : 1 3 >> 1
15. REXP : 0 1.8 1.0-3.0
16. PFREE : 0.2 0.2 0-0.40
17. RSERV : 0.95 0.3 0-0.40

18. PCTIM : 0 0
19. ADIMP : 0 0
20. SARVA : 0 0
21. SIDE : 0 0 0
22. SSOUT : 0 0 0

2.2 Data Availability for Callibration
In the 6 Cis River Basin Territory, effort has been made to collect catchment area having
pairs of rainfall and runoff data, preferably small catchment area, and has been calibrated
from the BTA-155 Project (Puslitbang Pengairan and Delft Hydraulics, 1989). Ciujung
river at Rangkasbitung and Kragilan are river discharge stations that were used in the
BTA-155 Project to calibrate the Sacramento parameter. Two additional stations having
small catchments in this study: Ciliwung-Katulampa and Cigulung-Maribaya are listed in
the following table, while the availability of the river discharge data is presented in the bar
chart in Figure 3.
Table 2 List of Discharge Stations for Sacramento Calibration

Station Name Station Code CA (km2) BTA-155 Water Districts / Period of Data
Rainfall Stations
Ciujung-Kragilan 02-006-03-01 1,562.7 D101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106 1969-1008
Ciujung-Rangkasbitung 02-006-03-02 1,363.9 D101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106 1970-2008
Ciliwung-Katulampa 02-012-01-02 150.0 Citeko 1990-2010
Cigulung-Maribaya 02-016-04-07 36.0 D301 (Upper Citarum) 1985-2006
Graph of Discharge historical

Discharge historical [m3/s]
03-1971 03-1973 03-1975 03-1977 03-1979 03-1981 03-1983 03-1985 03-1987 03-1989 03-1991 03-1993 03-1995 03-1997 03-1999 02-2001 02-2003 02-2005 02-2007 02-2009
CigMaribaya QH Katulampa QH Kragilan QH Rangjasbt QH
Figure 3 Availability of half-monthly river discharges data
Using the same river discharges and rainfall data in the BTA-155 Project (Delft Hydraulics
and Puslitbang Pengairan, 1989), in this study, the parameter of Sacramento Model is
recalibrated using the same rainfall and runoff data in the BTA-155 Project which half-
monthly data is available from the year of 1951 until 1979. The parameter obtained in the
calibration phase will be applied in the rainfall-runoff simulation of the recent rainfall and
runoff data.

2.3 Ciujung River

In Ciujung River, there are two river gauging stations calibrated in the BTA-155 project:
Kragilan and Rangkasbitung (Figure 4 and Figure 8). This study recalibrated the
parameter, and produces better results in Figure 5 and Figure 9. The Sacramento
parameter has been modified from Figure 6 into Figure 7.
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1969 Dec 13 00:00:00 1971 Dec 13 00:00:00 1973 Dec 12 00:00:00 1975 Dec 12 00:00:00 1977 Dec 11 00:00:00
1969 Jan 01 00:00 - 1979 Dec 01 00:00
QS_Segment_1 QM_Segment_1
Figure 4 Ciujung-Kragilan using BTA-155 Sacramento parameter
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1969 Jan 01 00:00 - 1979 Dec 01 00:00
Figure 5 Ciujung-Kragilan using modified Sacramento parameter

Figure 6 Sacramento parameter from BTA-155 study
Figure 7 Improved Sacramento parameter modified in this study

400
380
360
Good low flow
340 modeling
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1969 Jan 01 00:00 - 1979 Dec 01 00:00
Figure 8 Ciujung-Rangkasbitung using Sacramento parameter from BTA-155 Study
400
380
Good low flow
360
340
modeling
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1969 Jan 01 00:00 - 1979 Dec 01 00:00
Figure 9 Ciujung-Rangkasbitung using improved Sacramento parameter
From Figure 8 and Figure 9, indicate that there is no reason to change the parameters for
the new situation. Both set of BTA-155 parameter and improved parameter produce the
same good result for present condition.

2.4 Ciliwung River
Ciliwung River is flowing through West Java Province and Jakarta Special Province.
Katulampa river gauging station is situated at the upper part of Ciliwung River, having
catchment area of 150 km2. An automatic rainfall station Citeko is situated in the
catchment area of Katulampa River Gauging Station. Daily river discharges and daily
rainfall data from the year of 1990 2006 are obtained from Research Center for Water
Resources. Rating curve of the river discharges is based on the work of Ogink (2007) and
Ogink (2008).
The land use change of forest and urban area in the upper Katulampa river gauging
station is obtained from satellite image interpretation by Institutional Strengthening for
IWRM in the 6 Ci's River Basin Territory (package B) Project, for the year of 2000, 2003,
2007 and 2009 as shown in Figure 10. This figure present the percentage of forest that is
decreasing from 58.8% in the year of 2000 to 18.2% in 2007, but little increase to 22.4%
in the last two years of 2009. On the other hand the urban area is increasing from 0.2% in
the year of 2000 to 7.2% in 2009
70.0%
58.8%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
21.5% 22.4%
20.0%
18.2%
10.0% 7.2%
5.3% 5.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Forest Urban
Figure 10 Land use change of forest and urban area in Ciliwung-Katulampa catchment area

2.4.1 Calibration for Low Flow Time-Series
Calibration for Ciliwung-Katulampa is carried out from the year of 1990 to 1998. The
calibration using the BTA-155 parameter and rainfall station Citeko is presented in Figure
11 shows good fit between the model and the observed data, especially around the year
of 1995.
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
Good fit of
42 low flow
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1990 Dec 08 00:00:00 1991 Dec 08 00:00:00 1992 Dec 07 00:00:00 1993 Dec 07 00:00:00 1994 Dec 07 00:00:00 1995 Dec 07 00:00:00 1996 Dec 06 00:00:00 1997 Dec 06 00:00:00
1990 Jan 01 00:00 - 1998 Dec 01 00:00
Figure 11 Ciliwung-Katulampa using Sacramento parameter from BTA-155
Using the same set of Katulampa discharge and Citeko rainfall station, calibraton using
improved Sacramento parameter, presented in Figure 12 is also give good fit, especially
for around the year of 1997.
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
Good fit of
48
46
low flow
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1990 Jan 01 00:00 - 1998 Dec 01 00:00
Figure 12 Ciliwung-Katulampa using improved Sacramento parameter
This fact shows that the BTA-155 parameter is good for calibration in the period of BTA-
155 (1951 1979) while the improved parameter is for more recent period.
Figure 13 show the result of calibration for the period of 1990-1996, give fit for this period
as well as period of 2003-2006, and over estimate for the period of 1997-2002. This
means that in the period of 1997-2002, parameter of the model related to land use and
land cover has changed. This set of changed parameter that fit in this period can be used
for the scenario of decreasing forest and increasing urban area. As a logical consequence
this set of urban parameter would give under estimate for forest land cover condition.
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figure 13 Ciliwung Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 1992
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figure 14 Ciliwung-Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 1997

Graph of Discharge historical

70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figure 15 Ciliwung-Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 2003

2.4.2 Calibration for Flood Event

The hourly time step should be applied for analysing the effect of land use change to flood
hydrograph. Until now it is found that only Ciliwung-Katulampa gauging station has
relatively small catchment area, and sufficient hourly rainfall and corresponding discharge
data.
The hourly available discharge of Ciliwung River at Katulampa is from the year of 1996 to
2008, while the hourly rainfall is from Citeko from the year of 1995 2008. Both data was
obtained from FHM Project, and verified by Ogink (2007) and Ogink (2008). There are
also hourly discharge data from Tideda database Pusair from the year of 1996 until 2004.
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1996 Feb 02 00:00:00 1996 Feb 05 00:00:00 1996 Feb 08 00:00:00 1996 Feb 11 00:00:00 1996 Feb 14 00:00:00 1996 Feb 17 00:00:00 1996 Feb 20 00:00:00 1996 Feb 23 00:00:00 1996 Feb 26 00:00:00
1996 Feb 02 00:00 - 1996 Feb 26 22:58
CITEKO PH KATULAMPA1 QH
Figure 16 Hourly rainfall at Citeko and river discharge Ciliwung at Katulampa
The hourly rainfall at Citeko and river discharges of Ciliwung at Katulampa for February
1996 presented in Figure 16 shows timing error. The rainfall appear about 24 hours after
the flooding happened. To overcome this problem, a backward shifting of 24 hours is
applied for rainfall of Citeko in February 1996.
The calibration results for Katulampa has been carried on for flood event on February
1996, and presented in the following figure. It shows relatively good fit between model and
the observation data, especially in the peak flow. The next figure shows the Sacramento
parameters for this calibration process,

85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1996 Feb 02 00:00:00 1996 Feb 05 00:00:00 1996 Feb 08 00:00:00 1996 Feb 11 00:00:00 1996 Feb 14 00:00:00 1996 Feb 17 00:00:00 1996 Feb 20 00:00:00 1996 Feb 23 00:00:00
1996 Feb 02 00:00 - 1996 Feb 25 22:58
Figure 17 Katulampa Calibration February 1996
Figure 18 Sacramento Parameter for February 1996

2.5 Citarum River
Cigulung River is a tributary of Citarum River, and river gauging station Cigulung-
Maribaya is having small catchment area of 26 km2, situated near tourism object of
Maribaya waterfall, which its upper catchment suffering land use changes into human
settlement. There is no data available on the rate of change in this region, but data for the
whole Citarum river basin might give impression on the land use change in this site.
In Citarum basin, the land use change data from Bappeda Jawa Barat is presented in
following figure. The forest cover is decreasing from 32.4 % in the year of 1994 to 9.3% in
2009, conversely the urban area increasing from 1.9% in 1994 to 26.1% in 2009. The
decreasing forest is high during period in the year 1994 2000.
35.0%
32.4%
30.0%
26.1%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
12.1%
11.3%
9.3%
10.0%
5.0%
2.4% 2.7%
1.9%
0.0%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
Forest Urban
Figure 19 Land use change of forest and urban area in Citarum River Basin
In Cigulung-Maribaya river gauging station, if the BTA-155 parameter is applied, the

model gives underestimate low flow and over estimated peak flow (Figure 20). This
means that the model expect the catchment area which is worse than in reality, drought in
the dry season and flooding in the wet season. Therefore the Sacramento parameter can
not be generalized for all catchment area in the 6 Cis.
The calibrated model for the periode of during high decrease of forest in year of 1986-
2000 is presented in Figure 21. It shows good fit, much better than BTA-155 parameter.

6
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1985 Jan 01 00:00 - 2000 Nov 01 00:00
Figure 20 Cigulung-Maribaya using the BTA-155 parameter for the year of 1985-2000
6
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
1985 Jan 01 00:00 - 2000 Nov 01 00:00
Figure 21 Cigulung-Maribaya calibrated for the year of 1985-2000

Figure 22 Sacramento parameter for Cigulung-Maribaya 1985-2000

3 LOW FLOW ANALYSIS
The main purpose of the low flow analysis in this study is to provide the rainfall-runoff
parameter for input of simulation model Ribasim, and if necessary improve the parameter
of the BTA-155 period from the year of 1951-1979, to accommodate the land use change
effect. Based on the irrigation cycle, the time-step for simulation is half-monthly.
3.1 Ciujung River

The following two figures are showing the Sacramento simulation of Ciujung-Kragilan and
Ciujung-Rangkasbitung for the year of 1981 2005. Kragilan station in Figure 23 shows
that the past Sacramento parameter still gives good fit to the recent data. The same result
also applied to Rangkasbitung station, although the model gives underestimate
discharges for some years.
Time Series
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
Time series
550
500
450
400
350
300
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200
150
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50
10-12-1981 10-12-1983 09-12-1985 09-12-1987 08-12-1989 08-12-1991 07-12-1993 07-12-1995 06-12-1997 06-12-1999 05-12-2001 05-12-2003 04-12-2005
Time
Figure 23 Ciujung-Kragilan using improved parameter for 1981-2005

Time Series
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
Time series
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
10-12-1981 10-12-1983 09-12-1985 09-12-1987 08-12-1989 08-12-1991 07-12-1993 07-12-1995 06-12-1997 06-12-1999 05-12-2001 05-12-2003 04-12-2005
Time
Figure 24 Ciujung Rangkasbitung using improved parameters for 1981-2005

3.2 Ciliwung River
The low flow simulation for Ciliwung-Katulampa is carried out for the year of 1999 to 2006,
a period with low forest fraction. The result of simulation using BTA-155 parameter is
presented in Figure 25. No general pattern exists. It shows over estimate of low flow for
the year of 2000 but under estimate for the year of 2004 and 2005.
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
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8
6
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2
0
-2
1999 Dec 06 00:00:00 2000 Dec 05 00:00:00 2001 Dec 05 00:00:00 2002 Dec 05 00:00:00 2003 Dec 05 00:00:00 2004 Dec 04 00:00:00 2005 Dec 04 00:00:00
Figure 25 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa using BTA-155 parameter for the year of 1999-2006
The simulation using improved parameter, presented in Figure 26 shows similar result
with the simulation using BTA-155 parameter as in previous figure. The difference is so
not clear, however the simulation result using improved parameter seems to be a little
lower than using BTA-155 parameter.
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
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10
8
6
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-2
1999 Dec 06 00:00:00 2000 Dec 05 00:00:00 2001 Dec 05 00:00:00 2002 Dec 05 00:00:00 2003 Dec 05 00:00:00 2004 Dec 04 00:00:00 2005 Dec 04 00:00:00
1999 Jan 01 00:00 - 2006 Dec 01 00:00
Figure 26 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa using improved parameter for the year of 1999-2006

3.3 Citarum River

Simulation result of Cigulung River at Maribaya for the year of 2001-2006 using the
calibrated parameter for the year of 1985-2000 is presented in Figure 27. It shows
consistently that the low flow of the simulated model is always higher than the observed,
in line with the high deforestation. In other word, the model expect the observed data to
be higher than in reality. The magnitude of decreasing low flow is in between 0 (in 2004)
to 75% (in 2003), with the average decreasing is around 25%.
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
2001 Jan 01 00:00 - 2006 Nov 01 00:00
Figure 27 Cigulung Maribaya simulation for the year of 2001-2006

4 FLOOD ANALYSIS
Using the same Hymos Sacramento parameter calibrated in the Chapter 2, the model is
run using the observed rainfall and discharge in the year 2002 and 2006. If the model and
observed can be fitted using this parameter, it means that no change in catchment
characteristic from 1996 to 2002 and 2006. If it doesnt fit then it is caused by land use
change.
4.1 Simulation for the year of 2002 and 2006

For the year of 2002, 19 January 15 February, in Figure 28 the Sacramento model
simulated using 1996 parameter only expecting flood of about 60 m3/s and 40 m3/s.
However in reality the observed flood peaks are much higher, 170 m3/s and 240 m3/s, It
is about 4 times higher.
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2002 Jan 19 00:00:00 2002 Jan 22 00:00:00 2002 Jan 25 00:00:00 2002 Jan 28 00:00:00 2002 Jan 31 00:00:00 2002 Feb 03 00:00:00 2002 Feb 06 00:00:00 2002 Feb 09 00:00:00 2002 Feb 12 00:00:00
2002 Jan 19 00:00 - 2002 Feb 14 22:58
Figure 28 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa 19 January 15 February 2002 using parameter of 1996
For the year of 2006, 8 January to 26 February, in Figure 29 the Sacramento model using
1996 parameter only expect flood of about 70 m3/s and 120 m3/s. However in reality the
observed flood peaks are much higher than expected in the model, as high as 130 m3/s
and 270 m3/s, or about twice higher.
Both simulation cases for the year of 2002 and 2006 give consistent result, that the
observed high flow is higher than expected, by a factor of around twice to 4 times. It is
noted that the forest fraction in 1996 is 60%, and deforestation leaves remaining forest
fraction of only 20% for the year of 2002 and 2006. At the same time the urban area is
increasing from only 0.2% in the year of 1996 to about 5% in the year of 2002 and 2006.

280
270
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240
230
220
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200
190
180
170
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0
2006 Jan 14 00:00:00 2006 Jan 21 00:00:00 2006 Jan 28 00:00:00 2006 Feb 04 00:00:00 2006 Feb 11 00:00:00 2006 Feb 18 00:00:00 2006 Feb 25 00:00:00
2006 Jan 08 00:00 - 2006 Feb 26 22:58
Figure 29 Simulation of Ciliwung-Katulampa 8 January 26 February 2006 using parameter of 1996
4.2 Recalibrating the deforestation case

Figure 30 and Figure 31 showing an attempt to fit the model with the observed flow for the
year of 2002 and 2006 respectively. The Sacramento parameter to be changed is LZTW
(Lower Zone Tension Water) from 300 to 30, which means lowering the capacity of soil to
hold the water.
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
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90
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2002 Jan 19 00:00:00 2002 Jan 22 00:00:00 2002 Jan 25 00:00:00 2002 Jan 28 00:00:00 2002 Jan 31 00:00:00 2002 Feb 03 00:00:00 2002 Feb 06 00:00:00 2002 Feb 09 00:00:00 2002 Feb 12 00:00:00 2002 Feb 15 00:00:00
2002 Jan 19 00:00 - 2002 Feb 15 22:58
Figure 30 Ciliwung-Katulampa 19 January 15 February 2002 recalibrated

280
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2006 Jan 14 00:00:00 2006 Jan 21 00:00:00 2006 Jan 28 00:00:00 2006 Feb 04 00:00:00 2006 Feb 11 00:00:00 2006 Feb 18 00:00:00 2006 Feb 25 00:00:00
2006 Jan 08 00:00 - 2006 Feb 26 22:58
Figure 31 Ciliwung-Katulampa 8 January 26 February 2006 recalibrated

5 CONCLUDING REMARKS
1) This study has developed an improved parameter from BTA-155 parameter for
input of DSS-Ribasim.
2) No differences in low flow for Ciujung, and Ciliwung River. The parameter from the
BTA-155 from 1951-1979, can be used for the recent year in 2005. In other words,
generally we can use old parameter resulting from BTA-155 study, or the improved
parameter in this study for generating flows in the 6 Ci river basin territory.
3) For Citarum, in small catchment tributary Cigulung-Maribaya, the BTA-155
parameter cannot be applied, the possible cause is because the condition of the
catchment is better than expected, or better than the average catchment area in
the 6 Cis area. A new parameter for Cigulung-Maribaya for the year of 1985-2000,
representing good catchment is developed. The application of this parameter for
recent year in 2000-2008 gives over estimate low flow by 25%, to be suspected in
line with the deforestation in its catchment area.
4) Concerning flood flow analysis, land use change in the upstream catchment of
Katulampa, forest change from 58% in the year of 2000 into 22% in the year of
2009, and at the same time increasing urban area from 58% in the year of 2000
into 22% in the year of 2009, has made increase of peak flow in the year of 2002
and 2006, at about 4 times compared with peak flow in 1996.
5) Due to the limitation of the data availability, only Ciliwung-Katulampa for flood, and
Ciliwung-Katulampa and Cigulung-Maribaya for low flow, we cannot yet generalize
the predicted Sacramento parameter value for the deforestation catchment area.
6) To provide time-series of half-monthly runoff for all water district in 6 Cis area to
DSS-Ribasim, it is recommended to make calibrations for some representative
river gauging stations in each rivers, using the starting parameter value of BTA-
155 or the improved parameter developed in this study.
REFERENCES
1. Burnash, R. J. C., Ferral, R. L., and R. A. McGuire, 1973. A Generalized

Streamflow Simulation System, Conceptual Modeling for Digital Computers,
United States Department of Commerce, National Weather Services.
2. Delft Hydraulics and Pusat Litbang Pengairan, 1989. BTA-155, Cisadane-Cimanuk
Integrated Water Resources Development Study, Ministry of Public Works.
3. Ogink, H.J.M. (2007), Discharge measuring stations, Jakarta Flood Hazard
Management, Delft Hydraulics.
4. Ogink, H.J.M. (2008), Hydrological data processing, floods of 2007 and 2008,
Partner for Water and Deltares.
5. Van der Weert, 1993. Hydrological Condition in Indonesia, Delft Hydraulics.

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STUDY ON EFFECTS

OF LAND USE CHANGE

Prepared by: Center for Water Resources Research and Development

DEMIS B.V - EUROCONSULT MOTT MACDONALD -SIGNIFICANCE B.V - PT GEO ISSEC

STUDY ON EFFECTS OF LAND USE CHANGES

Research Center for Water Resources i

Research Center for Water Resources 2

Figure 1 Concept of Sacramento Model (Burnash, 1973) .................................................. 8

Research Center for Water Resources 3

Table 1 Sacramento Parameter ....................................................................................... 10

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1.3 Expected Results (outputs/outcomes):

- Rainfall-runoff analysis using Sacramento model and other methodologies applied

- Comparing the measured discharges with the results of rainfall-runoff analysis

- Assess the parameters that better reflect the measured values

- Another approach is to calibrate the present condition and examine the

Research Center for Water Resources 7

2 CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL

2.1 Sacramento Model

Figure 1 Concept of Sacramento Model (Burnash, 1973)

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Figure 2 Model Component (Burnash, 1973)

Direct Runoff Parameter

Upper Soil Moisture Zone Parameter

Lower Zone Parameter

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In the BTA-155 Project (Cisadane-Cimanuk Integrated Water Resources Development),

Table 1 Sacramento Parameter

Parameter BTA-155 Bengawan Solo Suggested

17. RSERV : 0.95 0.3 0-0.40

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2.2 Data Availability for Callibration

Table 2 List of Discharge Stations for Sacramento Calibration

Graph of Discharge historical

CigMaribaya QH Katulampa QH Kragilan QH Rangjasbt QH

Figure 3 Availability of half-monthly river discharges data

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2.3 Ciujung River

Figure 4 Ciujung-Kragilan using BTA-155 Sacramento parameter

Figure 5 Ciujung-Kragilan using modified Sacramento parameter

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Figure 6 Sacramento parameter from BTA-155 study

Figure 7 Improved Sacramento parameter modified in this study

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Figure 8 Ciujung-Rangkasbitung using Sacramento parameter from BTA-155 Study

Figure 9 Ciujung-Rangkasbitung using improved Sacramento parameter

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2.4 Ciliwung River

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2.4.1 Calibration for Low Flow Time-Series

Figure 11 Ciliwung-Katulampa using Sacramento parameter from BTA-155

Figure 12 Ciliwung-Katulampa using improved Sacramento parameter

Figure 13 Ciliwung Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 1992

Figure 14 Ciliwung-Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 1997

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Graph of Discharge historical

Figure 15 Ciliwung-Katulampa calibrated for around the year of 2003

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2.4.2 Calibration for Flood Event

Figure 16 Hourly rainfall at Citeko and river discharge Ciliwung at Katulampa

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