SMA

PM Computer Services: (Simple) Moving Average

3-Mon SMA AD SE 5-Mon SMA AD SE

Month Demand Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2 Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2
January 37 - - - - - -
February 40 - - - - - -
March 41 - - - - - -
April 37 39.33 2.33 5.44 - - -
May 45 39.33 5.67 32.11 - - -
June 50 41.00 9.00 81.00 40.00 10.00 100.00
July 43 44.00 1.00 1.00 42.60 0.40 0.16
August 47 46.00 1.00 1.00 43.20 3.80 14.44
September 56 46.67 9.33 87.11 44.40 11.60 134.56
October 52 48.67 3.33 11.11 48.20 3.80 14.44
November 55 51.67 3.33 11.11 49.60 5.40 29.16
December 54 54.33 0.33 0.11 50.60 3.40 11.56
January - 53.67 - - 52.80 - -

3-Mon 5-mon
MAD = 3.93 5.49
MAPD = 8.049% 10.756%
MSE = 25.56 43.47

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 SMA

SMA Comparison
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
June Jul y August September October November December
37 45 39.33 39.33 --

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 WMA

PM Computer Services: Weighted Moving Average

3-Mon WMA AD SE
Month Demand Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2 w1 0.435407
January 37 - - - w2 0
February 40 - - - w3 0.564593
March 41 - - - sum 1
April 37 39.26 2.26 5.10
May 45 38.31 6.69 44.81
June 50 43.26 6.74 45.45
July 43 44.34 1.34 1.79
August 47 43.87 3.13 9.79
September 56 48.31 7.69 59.19
October 52 50.34 1.66 2.76
November 55 49.82 5.18 26.80
December 54 55.44 1.44 2.06
January 53.13

3-Mon
MAD = 4.01
MAPD = 8.230%
MSE = 21.97

PM Computer Services: Optimized Weighted Moving Average with Solver

3-Mon WMA AD SE
Month Demand Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2 w1
January 37 - - - w2
February 40 - - - w3
March 41 - - - sum
April 37
May 45
June 50
July 43
August 47
September 56
October 52
November 55
December 54
January

3-Mon
MAD =
MAPD =
MSE =

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 SES

PM Computer Services: Simple Exponential Smoothing

SES AD SE
Month Demand Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2 alpha 0.3
January 37 37.00 - -
February 40 37.00 3.00 9.00
March 41 37.90 3.10 9.61
April 37 38.83 1.83 3.35
May 45 38.28 6.72 45.14 Chongqi Wu:
June 50 40.30 9.70 94.15 We need to establish the very first forecast
July 43 43.21 0.21 0.04 in order for the SES formula to work.
August 47 43.15 3.85 14.86 Conventionally, F1 is assumed to be equal to
September 56 44.30 11.70 136.85 D1.
October 52 47.81 4.19 17.55
November 55 49.07 5.93 35.19
December 54 50.85 3.15 9.94
January

3-Mon
MAD = 4.85
MAPD = 10.267%
MSE = 34.15

PM Computer Services: Optimized Simple Exponential Smoothing

SES AD SE
Month Demand Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2 alpha 0.660893
January 37 37.00 - -
February 40 37.00 3.00 9.00
March 41 38.98 2.02 4.07
April 37 40.32 3.32 11.00
May 45 38.12 6.88 47.27
June 50 42.67 7.33 53.75
July 43 47.51 4.51 20.37
August 47 44.53 2.47 6.10
September 56 46.16 9.84 96.77
October 52 52.66 0.66 0.44
November 55 52.23 2.77 7.70
December 54 54.06 0.06 0.00
January

SES
MAD = 3.90
MAPD = 8.242%
MSE = 23.32 <- Minimize this

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 SES

h the very first forecast

formula to work.
s assumed to be equal to

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 Holt's

PM Computer Services: Exponentially Smoothed and Adjusted Exponentially Smoothed Forecasts

Alpha = 0.521892
Beta = 0.225295

Adjusted AD SE
Month Demand Forecast Trend Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2
January 37 37.00 0.00 37.00 - -
February 40 37.00 0.00 37.00 3.00 9.00
March 41 38.57 0.35 38.92 2.08 4.33
April 37 39.84 0.56 40.40 3.40 11.53
May 45 38.36 0.10 38.46 6.54 42.82
June 50 41.82 0.86 42.68 7.32 53.55
July 43 46.09 1.63 47.72 4.72 22.25
August 47 44.48 0.90 45.37 1.63 2.64
September 56 45.79 0.99 46.79 9.21 84.91
October 52 51.12 1.97 53.09 1.09 1.18
November 55 51.58 1.63 53.21 1.79 3.21
December 54 53.36 1.66 55.03 1.03 1.06
January

Holt's
MAD = 3.80
MAPD = 8.040%
MSE = 21.50

PM Computer Services: Optimized Exponentially Smoothed and Adjusted Exponentially Smoothed Forecasts

Alpha =
Beta =

Adjusted AD SE
Month Demand Forecast Trend Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2
January 37 37.00 0.00 37.00 - -
February 40
March 41
April 37
May 45
June 50
July 43
August 47
September 56
October 52
November 55
December 54
January

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 Holt's

Holt's
MAD =
MAPD =
MSE =

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 Holt's

moothed Forecasts

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 LinearTrend

PM Computer Services: Linear Trend Line

min MSE Excel func

a 35.2121214 35.21212
b 1.72377621 1.723776

time AD SE
Month period Demand Forecast |D-F| (D - F)^2
January 1 37 36.94 0.064102 0.004109
February 2 40 38.66 1.340326 1.796474
March 3 41 40.38 0.61655 0.380134
April 4 37 42.11 5.107226 26.08376
May 5 45 43.83 1.168998 1.366555
June 6 50 45.55 4.445221 19.75999
July 7 43 47.28 4.278555 18.30603
August 8 47 49.00 2.002331 4.009329
September 9 56 50.73 5.273893 27.81395
October 10 52 52.45 0.449883 0.202395
November 11 55 54.17 0.82634 0.682838
December 12 54 55.90 1.897436 3.600263
January 13

Linear Trend
MAD = 2.29
MAPD = 4.932%
MSE = 8.67 <- Objective function (Try to minimize)

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 Seasonal

Wishbone Farms : Seasonally Adjusted Forecast

Demand (1,000s) per Quarter

Year 1 2 3 4 Total
2013 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 45 trend line intercept
2014 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 50.1 trend line slope
2015 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 53.6
Total 42.0 29.5 21.9 55.3 148.7

seasonal factor S 0.28 0.20 0.15 0.37 1.00

seasonally
adjusted forecast
SF 16.43 11.54 8.57 21.63 58.17

Linear trend line forecast for 2016 58.16667

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 Seasonal

-8610.63
4.3

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 SLR

State University Athletic Department

x y predicted
(wins) (attendance) attendance SE
4 36,300 34,708 2,534,217 Excel Optimization
6 40,100 42,830 7,452,307 a = 18464.37 18464.44982
6 41,200 42,830 2,656,546 b = 4060.92 4060.906927
8 53,000 50,952 4,195,511
6 44,000 42,830 1,369,154 y = 18464.37 +
7 45,600 46,891 1,666,160
5 39,000 38,769 53,368 y(7) = 46890.80
7 47,500 46,891 371,127
49 346,700 r = 0.9478

MSE 2,537,299

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 SLR

y (atendance)
60000

50000

40000
4060.92 x
30000
(attendance)
20000

10000

0
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5

x (wins)

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 MLR

State University Athletic Department

x1 x2 y
(wins) ($ promotion) (attendance)
4 29,500 36,300
6 55,700 40,100
6 71,300 41,200
8 87,000 53,000
6 75,000 44,000
7 72,000 45,600
5 55,300 39,000
7 81,600 47,500
49 527,400 346,700

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9491834135
R Square 0.9009491524
Adjusted R Square 0.8613288134
Standard Error 1988.68737611
Observations 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 179864362.6 89932181.3002 22.73956191 0.0030877739
Residual 5 19774387.3995 3954877.4799
Total 7 199638750

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 19094.42361815 4139.28194496 4.6129797081 0.005771986 8454.0606379
X Variable 1 3560.996402315 1499.98119778 2.3740273595 0.063634166 -294.8280185
X Variable 2 0.0368900025 0.1013463583 0.3639992909 0.730744235 -0.2236291051

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 MLR

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

29734.7866 8454.060638 29734.78659845
7416.82082 -294.828018 7416.820823113
0.29740911 -0.22362911 0.2974091102

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