Jean Laherrere 25 January 2014

Oil peak in North Dakota & Montana

Last North Dakota (ND) Bakken report for November is at 908 kb/d with 6784 producing wells
North Dakota: Bakken oil monthly production!
1000! 8000!
!"#$%&&'''()*+(,)(-./&.01-2$&$323$&!0$3.+042152667,.01$323$(#)89
900! 7200!

800! 6400!
oil production kb/d!

700! 5600!

number of wells!
600! 4800!

500! 4000!

400! 3200!
kb/d!
300! 2400!
wells!
200! 1600!

100! 800!

0! 0!
1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020!
year!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014!
The Hubbert linearization plot of the production since 2012 trends towards 2500 Mb

Bakken North Dakota oil production Hubbert linearization!

7!
1955-20011!
6! 2012-2013!

5!
aP/CP %!

4!

3!

2!

1!

0!
0! 500! 1000! 1500! 2000! 2500! 3000! 3500! 4000! 4500! 5000! 5500! 6000!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014!
cumulative production Mb!
Using an ultimate of 2.5 Gb for ND Bakken the peak is for fall 2014 at 1 Mb/d

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 North Dakota: Bakken oil monthly production!
1000! 8000!
!"#$%&&'''()*+(,)(-./&.01-2$&
900! $323$&!0$3.+042152667,.01$323$(#)89 7200!

800! 6400!
oil production kb/d!

700! 5600!

number of wells!
600! 4800!

500! 4000!

400! 3200!
kb/d!
300! U=2.5 Gb! 2400!

200! wells! 1600!

100! 800!

0! 0!
2000! 2002! 2004! 2006! 2008! 2010! 2012! 2014! 2016! 2018! 2020! 2022!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!
Using symmetrical curve for tight oil production could be seen as questionable but in 1991 ND had
a Bakken peak which was produced with a symmetrical curve.
North Dakota: Bakken oil monthly production!
30! 600!
kb/d!
U=2.5 Gb!
25! 500!
wells!
oil production kb/d!

number of wells!
20! 400!

15! 300!

10! 200!

Antelope field!
5! 100!

0! 0!
1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020! 2030!
Jean Laherrere Sept 2012!
year!
The ND Bakken peak in 2014 for an ultimate of 2,5 Gb is different to D.Coynes forecast of a peak
in 2017 at 1.25 Mb/d with a unsymmetrical decline for an ultimate of 8.4 Gb

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 North Dakota: Bakken oil monthly production!
1000!

900!
kb/d!
800!
U=2.5 Gb!
oil production kb/d!

700!

600!

500!

400!

300!

200!

100!

0!
2008! 2010! 2012! 2014! 2016! 2018! 2020! 2022! 2024! 2026!
year!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014!
D.Coyne forecasts 500 kb/d in 2026 for ND Bakken when my forecast is zero!

The ND Bakken production per well was above 200 b/d/w in 1954, flattened in the 60s at 75 b/d/w,
up to 60 in 1991 and since 2009 at 135 b/d/w

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 North Dakota: Bakken oil monthly production per well!
200!

175!

150!
oil production b/d/w!

125!
Antelope field!
100!

75!

50!

25!

0!
1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!

The ND production excluding the Bakken displays several cycles and is presently flat at 65 kb/d
North Dakota excluding Bakken: crude oil production!
150!

excl Bakken!
125!
U=2.5 Gb!

100!
kb/d!

75!

50!

25!

0!
1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020! 2030!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!

The Hubbert linearization for the period 1990-2013 trends towards an ultimate of 2500 Mb

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 North Dakolta non Bakken Hubbert linearization!
2,0!

1,8! 1951-1989!
1990-2013!
1,6!

1,4!
aP/CP%!

1,2!

1,0!

0,8!

0,6!

0,4!

0,2!

0,0!
0! 300! 600! 900! 1200! 1500! 1800! 2100! 2400! 2700! 3000!

Jean Laherrere Jan 2014!

cumulative production Mb!
Adding the forecasts of Bakken and non-Bakken each with an ultimate of 2.5 Gb, gives a peak for
ND at 1.06 Mb/d in the fall 2014 and a sharp decline with only 0,2 Mb/d in 2020

North Dakota crude oil production & forecast U= 5 Gb!

1100!

with Bakken !
1000!
U=5 Gb! ultimate!
Bakken = 2.5 Gb!
900! excl Bakken! non Bakken = 2.5 Gb!
U=2.5 Gb!
800!

700!

600!
kb/d!

500!

400!

300!

200!

100!

0!
1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020! 2030!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!

In 2012 ND Department of Mineral resources forecasted NG production with a slow decline, which
is in contradiction with the sharp decline of tight oil production producing mmainly from fractures
and not from the pores of the reservoir.

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USGS assessments are useless, reporting only the potential of undiscovered without telling how
much is already discovered. Undiscovered tight oil seems queer when it is assumed to be a
continuous accumulation being only one already Bakken discovered accumulation!
USGS should stop making assessment of undiscovered reserves and replaced by assessment of
ultimate reserves! I doubt that they are able to do so (their seventh approximation sheet (base of
their assessment) is pure guess)!

Goldman Sachs (Sept 2013) forecasts peak in 2025 but including Three Forks, with a Middle
Bakken peak in 2015.

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Three Forks is just under Bakken formation and has 4 layers: it is claimed to be underexplored..
http://www.worldoil.com/June_2013_Bakken/Three_Forks_shale_once-
ignored_zone_could_double_reserve_base.html

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But ND DMR reports only Bakken and total production. In their report of cumulative production up
to end 2012, Bakken was 546 Mb and Bakken Three Forks only for 2 Mb.
Three Forks production covers less than Bakken
http://www.ogfj.com/articles/print/volume-10/issue-12/features/three-forks-vs-bakken.html

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Production in 2013 at Elm Coulee in Montana from Three Forks is negligible and at Elm Coulee
Northeast small. (5%)

ND oil production 1953-2013 displays several cycles but the last one with Bakken is very sharp.

North Dakota oil production!

1000!

900!
ND production!
800!
Bakken prod!
700!
prod excl Bakken!
600!
kb/d!

500!

400!

300!

200!

100!

0!
1950! 1955! 1960! 1965! 1970! 1975! 1980! 1985! 1990! 1995! 2000! 2005! 2010! 2015!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!

The production is compared to the number of rigs and correlates well when the number is shifted by
2 years (24 months). The extrapolation of the oil production following the shifted number of rigs

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leads to a peak in mid 2014, in agreement with the above peak assuming an ultimate of 5 Gb. A
year ago we compared ND oil production with the number of rigs shifted by one year using the
example of Montana (see below) and forecasted a peak around 2013. We were wrong because in
contrary with Montana (rig peak = 25) ND rig peak was 200 and many wells are drilled but not
fracked. There are presently about 500 wells waiting for hydraulic fracturation, bothering the
correlation with rigs.

North Dakota oil production & number of rigs!

1100! 209!
1000! 190!
ND production!
900! 171!
prod excl Bakken!
800! nb rigs (Baker Hughes)! 152!

number of rigs!
700! rigs 24 months ahead! 133!
kb/d!

600! 114!
500! 95!
400! 76!
300! 57!
200! 38!
100! 19!
0! 0!
2000! 2002! 2004! 2006! 2008! 2010! 2012! 2014! 2016! 2018! 2020!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!
The ND Hubbert linearization of oil production is impossible to extrapolate to 5 Gb, when it
is easy when dealing only with Bakken or with excluding Bakken.

North Dakota oil production Hubbert linearization 1950-2013!

3!

aP/CP %!

2!
aP/CP %!

1!
?!

0!
0! 500 ! 1000 ! 1500 ! 2000 ! 2500 ! 3000 ! 3500 ! 4000 ! 4500 ! 5000 !

Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! cumulative production Mb!

We feel confident for this 2014 peak coming from two different approaches

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The ND daily oil production per well (in green) was less than 40 b/d/w from 1955 to 2009 and than
jumped to 100 b/d/w. The only Bakken production per well is since 2009 around 130 b/d/w
North Dakota daily oil production per well !
240!
220! Bakken per well b/d/w!
200! all ND per well b/d/w!
prroduction per well b/d/w!

180!
160!
140!
120!
100!
80!
60!
40!
20!
0!
1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!
The ND production in November 2013 is at 973 kb/d with 9726 producing wells. The number of
producing wells excluding Bakken is flat since 1985 around 3000 wells when production went from
120 kb/d down to 65 kb/d

North Dakota oil production & producers !

10000! 1000!
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicaloilprodstats.pdf!
9000! 900!
forecast IEA = 675 kb/d in 2016?!
number of wells producing!

8000! 800!
daily oil production kb/d!
forecast ND DMR = 590 kb/d 2012-2015!
7000! 700!

6000! Wells Producing ! 600!

wells excl. Bakken!
5000! 500!
all NDl kb/d!
4000! prod excl Bakken! 400!

3000! 300!

2000! 200!

1000! 100!

0! 0!
1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014! year!

Montana oil production started before 1920, largely sooner than ND, and peaked in 1968 over 120
kb/d, then declined down to 40 kb/d in 2000 and peaked with the discovery of the Bakken Elm
Coulee field at 100 kb/d in 2006, followed by a decline in 2011 with a new increase with the

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discovery of Bakken Elm Coulee Northeast. Elm Coulee cycle is about 10 years and our above
forecast of ND Bakken cycle for an ultimate of 5 Gb is about 14 years in line with Elm Coulee
cycle
Montana oil production from Montana state & EIA!
50! 0,14!
Montana EIA-DGMN !
annual production Mb, number of rigs!

45! 0,12!
NE Montana!
40! all Bakken Mb! 0,11!
U = 180 Mb!
35! 0,10!

Mb/d!
Elm Coulee field = Bakken!
30! nb rigs! 0,08!

25! monthly! 0,07!

20! 0,05!

15! 0,04!

10! 0,03!

5! 0,01!

0! 0,00!
1910! 1920! 1930! 1940! 1950! 1960! 1970! 1980! 1990! 2000! 2010! 2020!
year! http://www.bogc.dnrc.mt.gov!
Jean Laherrere Jan 2014!
Montana oil production is compared with the number of rigs and there is a good fit with the number
shifted by one year with the first peak of Elm Coulee in 2006 and the second peak with Elm Coulee
Northeast at end 2013.
Montana oil production & number of rigs!
110! 27!
prod excl Bakken!
100! 24!
prod kb/d!
90! nb rigs Baker Hughes! 21!
nb rigs 1 yr ahead!
number of rigs!

80! 18!

70! 15!
kb/d!

60! 12!

50! 9!

40! 6!

30! 3!

20! 0!
1980! 1985! 1990! 1995! 2000! 2005! 2010! 2015!
Jean Jan 2014! year!

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