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Strictly private
and confidential
July 2017
Sector
Overview
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
PwC 2
India Power Sector Outlook
Aggressive capacity addition measures and changing fuel mix with emphasis towards
Renewable Energy
Energy Requirement vs Availability Fuel Wise Installed Capacity Present and Future
650 % Represents Ratio of Conventional: Non Conventional 640 GW
1200 -12.0% Sources
523 GW
1000 -10.0% 520 275 43%
175 33%
Surplus (%)
800 -8.0%
Energy (MU)
390 336 GW
Thousands
Growth in Generation (MUs India has been rapidly increasing its capacity to reduce the energy
deficit and is gradually turning into an energy surplus nation.
12
Energy deficit declined from 11.1% in 2009 to 3.6% in 2015
10 7.85% and has touched zero deficit levels in FY2017.
8
Installed generation capacity has grown at a CAGR of ~9.8% since
x 100000
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Power Generation - Renewable Focus
Aggressive solar and wind capacity addition plan to increase Renewable share from
18% in March 2017 to 43% by 2027; will pose significant Grid stability challenges
Installed and Planned Solar Capacity % Contribution of Renewables to Installed and Planned Wind Capacity
Total Energy Requirement
150 100
100 60
7.3% 20.3%
83
65 Apr. - Oct. 2016 End of 2021-22 30.7
48 17.4
32 7.1
2132 BUs 1.7
18
3 4 7
24.2% 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027
Cumulative Wind Capacity (MW)
FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19FY 20FY 21 FY 22FY 27
Source: MNRE End of 2026-27 Capacity Additions in the last 5 years (MW)
The Renewable sector in India has been rapidly scaling up backed Going forward Solar will be the fastest growing sector
by Government impetus due to its associated environmental with expected target of reaching an installed capacity
benefits, ability to meet growing energy needs, economic and social of 100 GW by 2022, about 12 times the current installed
benefits of distributed and off-grid generation and likely cost parity capacity.
with fossil fuel based power.
By the end of 2017, with expected installed capacity of around
The Government has set an ambitious target of achieving 18 GW, India will become the third biggest solar market
175 GW of renewable energy by 2022, out of which around globally, accounting for almost 5% of global solar capacity.
160 GW is to be contributed by solar and wind.
However, due to the inherent variable nature of solar and wind
Currently Wind energy has the highest installed renewable generation, this rapid increase in capacity will pose a significant
capacity. It has grown at a CAGR of 22% since 2002 due to integration challenge on Indias already stressed transmission
attractive feed-in tariffs, generation based incentives (GBI) and the and distribution grid.
growth of large-size turbine manufacturing capacity.
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Need and Benefits
of Energy Storage
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Potential uses of Energy Storage across the value chain
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Benefits of Energy Storage Applications across Value Chain
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Technology
Overview
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Mapping of Technology and Application
Each technology has its own performance characteristics that have to be matched with the specific requirements for different applications.
Partial Suitability
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Overview of various Energy Storage Technologies
Technology Compressed Air (CAES) Lithium-Ion Batteries Sodium Sulphur Flow Batteries
(Li-ion) Batteries (NaS)
Type Mechanical Electro-chemical Electro-chemical Electro-chemical
Large energy and power High energy and power High energy and power Very high cycle life
capacity density density No safety issues
Cost effective Higher efficiency Long cycle life
Advantages
High discharge duration Versatile Available for Scaling potential
many devices and
applications
Low efficiency levels Environmental and Safety Environmental and Safety Lower energy density
Geographic/locational considerations considerations Relatively lower efficiency
Challenges limitations High temperature has Heat source required to Complicated design
Long construction time adverse effect on maintain high operating
capacity/cycle life temp
Tentative Costs 150 - 250 400 - 1400 450 - 1200 500 - 1000
($/kWh) (in 2015)
Operational Parameters
Power Range 100 MW 1 GW < 50 MW 500 kW 20 MW 50 kW 20 MW
Duration Hours Days Mins Hours Mins Hours Hours Months
Efficiency 41 75 85 95 75 85 60 75
Cycles > 10,000 500 10,000 2,500- 4,500 > 10,000
Lifetime (Years) > 25 5 15 10 15 5 20
Response Time min < sec < sec < sec
Sources - Energy Regulators Regional Association Research paper July 2016, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Technology Roadmap Energy Storage IEA,
Lazards levelised cost of storage analysis, 2015
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Overview of various Alternate Technologies
Large energy and power capacity Large energy and power capacity Large energy and power capacity
Relatively high efficiency Relatively high efficiency Cost effective
Advantages Quick start time High discharge duration
Sources - Energy Regulators Regional Association Research paper July 2016, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Technology Roadmap Energy Storage IEA,
Lazards levelised cost of storage analysis, 2015
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Lithium-ion Vs Lead Acid Battery
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Comparing Solar PV and Lithium-ion Battery
Expected to reach
$100/kWh by
2022
Crystalline silicon PV system costs have fallen from $75/W in 1976 to a
2015 Chinese module price of $0.61/W in 2015.
This represents a learning rate of 26%, i.e. for every doubling of capacity,
costs fell 26%.
GW $/Wp BNEF EV Lithium-Ion battery price index
Reported future value, major manufacturers
250 4
Source - Bloomberg New Energy Finance. EV lithium-ion battery price index
3.5
200
3
2.5 Prices for lithium-ion battery packs have fallen from
150
2 roughly $1,000/kWh in 2010 to around $350/kWh in
100 1.5 2015 -16. This represents a 15% learning rate.
1
50 With the Li-ion learning rate being based on a smaller data
0.5
0 0 sample, we expect the prices to drop at a faster rate going ahead.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 This will act as a major trigger and expedite the adaptation of
Installed Solar PV Global Capacity Average Solar Module prices Energy Storage in India.
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Value Chain of Lithium-ion Battery
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Lithium-ion Battery Construction
Lithium /Lithium-ion battery demand is driven by renewables energy storage, hybrid and
electric vehicles and consumer and electronic devices
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Lithium Availability
Source - Wikipedia
In a step towards self reliance and cut the dependence on imports, The Central
Electrochemical Research Institute (CECRI) has set up the first indigenous Li-ion
fabrication facility at Karaikudi in Tamil Nadu
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Health & Environment Impacts due to Batteries
Environmentally unfriendly as they have high lead content and use sulphuric acid
Large scale recycling of lead acid batteries is a challenge
Serious health hazard if recycled improperly
Lithium-ion Batteries
Show poor impact on humans due to lithium and copper mining processes
Contain metallic lithium which react violently when it comes in contact with moisture
Increased supply risks- scarce material found in earths crust in concentrations lower than 0.01%
Highly toxic - can accumulate in the environment by entering ground and surface water
Also proven responsible for lung and kidney related illnesses
Large scale recycling poses a challenge
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Cost Analysis and
Market Potential -
India
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Energy Storage Lithium-ion
Cost per unit of electricity Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity of levelised per unit cost to cost
of Energy Storage system
Levelised per unit cost INR 15.51
INR/unit
11.7
11.6 18.6
11.4
11.2 17.06
11.1 15.51
10.9
10.7 13.97
10.6 12.42
10.4
10.2 10.88
10.1
9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0
$/kWh
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 100 125 150 175 200 225
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Diesel Generator Set
Cost per unit of electricity Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity of levelised per unit cost to
percentage escalation in diesel prices
Levelised per unit cost INR 20.06
INR/unit
25.3 22.43
23.2 23.9 24.6 20.06
21.2
22.0 22.6 19
20.2 20.8 21.4 18.02
19.2 19.7
17.7 18.2 18.7
17.2
1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source: PwC Analysis Source: PwC Analysis
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Cost Benefit Analysis
Inference Outlook
Based on current prices of lithium-ion battery packs, an Both, the payback as well as the per unit cost of power
investment in Energy Storage system with 4 hours back up generated are highly sensitive to the capital cost of battery
facility will break even only after 10 years. pack.
However from the above it is evident that the levelised cost of However looking at the past trend in fall of lithium-
generating power from ESS is significantly cheaper than from Diesel ion prices and other battery technologies, it is
generator sets. envisaged that in the next 5 to 7 years, there will be
Hence even at current prices, it makes economic sense to use ESS in a comprehensive economic case for adoption of
place of DG sets to generate power, albeit with the technical constraint ESS.
that ESS can provide back up power for a maximum of 4 hours. Till such time, majority of the investments will have to be
driven by Central Government entities.
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Energy Storage Global Overview
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Energy Storage Outlook in India
As per one of the reports, global energy
storage systems market is worth USD 16
Billion by 2020
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Value Chain of Energy Storage Systems
Storage Integrators
Global NGK Insulators, BYD, LG Chem, AES, Younicos, Greensmith, NEC Energy Solutions, ABB, RES, LG CNS, S&C Electric and
Players Samsung SDI Siemens
Indian Market is at a very nascent stage with various players currently assessing opportunities
Presence
in Indian PGCIL: Two demonstration projects with Li-ion and NTPC is exploring options for a 20 MW solar storage project for
Market
advanced Pb-acid are being installed. Andaman Nicobar Island.
Gujarat International Finance Tech City (GIFT) has SECI has issued 2 RFPs for 20 MW storage at Pavagada solar park,
issued an RFP for evaluating up to 40 MW of storage. Karnataka and 10 MW at Ananthapuramu solar park at in Andhra
AP Discom has issued RfP for 1 MW of storage. Pradesh.
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Regulations
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Regulatory Overview (1/2)
India currently does not have any policy or regulatory framework to support energy storage.
However, CERC has recently taken initiative by issuing a staff paper titled Introduction of Electricity Storage System in India in
January, 2017 and has invited comments from stakeholders
The paper covers the possible grid level applications of ESS, potential owners, operational framework and recovery of electricity
storage services
Key features of the staff paper related to owners, operational framework and recovery of
ES services
Parameters Details
Potential Owners Transmission Licensees Might act as facilitator and provide storage services
Generating Companies May own the storage facility and use it as part of generation obligation or
provide storage services to others
Distribution Licensees May own the storage facility and use it as part of distribution obligation or
provide storage services
Merchant Power Plant May own storage facility for sale of power in open market
Bulk Consumers May own and install storage facility at end use locations
Operational Devising a business model would be challenging unless a cost sharing mechanism among users is
Framework devised.
The paper suggests few options
Storage operator would operate the electricity storage facility at its customers direction but
would not own the energy stored at the facility. However cost recovery would be a challenge.
Multiple owners (like state entities) setting up storage facilities jointly by creating SPVs for
different applications. In this case cost recovery mechanism may be easier.
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Regulatory Overview (2/2)
Parameters Details
Operational Owned by Generator/s - Can be used for self use or to optimise its use, it may be kept non dedicated so
Framework that ESS services can also be used by system operator or other grid connected entities.
Owned by TL Use of ESS service may not be limited to the owner, but can be used by any grid
connected entity.
Cost Recovery Dedicated use Associated costs may be considered as part of tariff determination itself and no separate
charges for ESS services may be required.
Conventional Generator It may be either pooled with the annual fixed charge of the generator
or recovered through supplemental charges for the period during which it is mandated for use.
Renewable Generator Either fixed charges will be clubbed or ESS costs will be recovered
through supplemental charges based on additional value provided.
Non dedicated use Separate service charges are to be specified for use of storage facilities. However
there will be complexity in scheduling and despatch.
Regulatory The Electricity Act does not cover energy storage exclusively.
Jurisdiction However, since bulk storage has similar characteristics of transmission and generation based on usage, it
can reasonably be considered as a form of transmission for jurisdictional purpose
As CERC has control over inter state transmission and generation, thus storage meant for these
applications across states will be regulated by it
Issues related to planning criteria and grid connectivity which are required for development of bulk ESS
will be addressed by CERC through Indian Electricity Grid Code
Different types of storage facilities warrant different regulatory classifications and treatments
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Draft
National
Energy
Policy
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Salient Points - Draft National Energy Policy prepared by NITI AYOG
Tariff Mechanism Suitable application of time of the day tariff mechanism to encourage electric vehicles to store up
renewable energy when it is available in excess of demand
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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How PwC
can assist?
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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How PwC can assist?
PwC can assist to connect with a solar PwC can assist in conducting a
system manufacturer/ integrator to market study to evaluate the
create viable products to meet market dynamics, drivers and
growing consumer demands restrains, energy storage demand
and supply forecasts and
regulatory scenario and policy
developments
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Credentials
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Advisory services for entering Energy Storage business in India
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Advisory services for assessing Market Potential of Battery Based Energy
Storage and recommending Market Entry Strategy in India
Advisory services for assessing Market Potential of Battery Based Energy Storage and
recommending Market Entry Strategy in India
Client Confidential
Year 2017
Assess the existing and expected market potential in India across the various
Energy Storage applications and segments across the power value chain
Perform sub-regional focus (by states), identifying which states are more
attractive for each application or segment
Identify current pain points faced by players and hence scope for Energy Storage
Activities through primary research by interacting with players across value chain
Performed Conduct a preliminary cost benefit analysis to assess the economic feasibility of
battery based energy storage
Assess the set of players providing Energy Storage services and their offerings
Assess and suggest advocacy required for setting up Regulatory / policy
framework
Identify the potential segments and recommend a market entry strategy along
with probable business model
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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About PwC
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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PwC - globally, the leading management consulting firm
Presence in Over
743 134
cities PwCs Advisory services comprise the following Years
across the globe in strategic business units in India the oldest
& largest
professional services
firm
157
countries
15,000
Over Staff
223,000 and growing
Staff
8
US$ 35.9 Offices @
billion Kolkata, Gurgaon,
Mumbai, Pune,
revenue in Hyderabad,
Bangalore, Chennai,
FY 16 Ahmadabad
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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We are the first in almost every major initiative in power sector; from first
distribution privatization to the last one
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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PwC Indias Power & Utilities Advisory Practice & Achievements
Leading advisory
position in
Power
Sector We have many
firsts in India
Large green power
Power trade
Long term trusted Regulatory multi year
advisor to more than Generation
tariff
24 States Listing of an RE firm
on the Singapore
Energy
Distribution exchange
Conservation
Large restructuring
More than
program
25 years Policy,
Regulatory multiyear
in industry Renewable tariffs
Reforms and Multi-buyer power
Regulations Energy
market,
More than Cross-border private
Transmission power trade in India
250 and Markets PPP in STU and CTU
(transmission)
specialists PPP in nuclear power
in practice
Major Standards and
Labelling program
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Some of our clients across the power value chain
Energy Storage: The Next Game Changer Strictly private and confidential July 2017
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Adding value
2017 PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Limited. All rights reserved. In this document, PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Limited (a limited
liability company in India), which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.