IMPACT: International Journal of Research in Applied,

Natural and Social Sciences (IMPACT: IJRANSS)

ISSN (P): 2347-4580; ISSN (E): 2321-8851
Vol. 5, Issue 7, Jul 2017, 121-128
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AN ANALYSIS OF GROWTH RATE AND TREND OF CHILLI IN TELANGANA

G. SATHISH1, K. SUPRIYA2, M.H.V. BHAVE3 & SAMRAT LAHA4

1
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, India
2,3
Department of Statistics & Mathematics, College of Agriculture,
Professor Jayashanker Telangana State Agricultural University, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad, India
4
Department of Genetics and Plant Breeding, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, India

ABSTRACT

Chilli is one amongst the necessary spices crop cultivated in India. India is the largest producer of dry chilli and
pepper contributing 51 per cent to the world production (FAO, 2014). It is additionally, the largest shopper and business
person of chilli. The reference period of this study was from 1971-2010, and it absolutely was carriedout within
Telangana. A trial has been created to look at the trends in area, production and productivity of chilli crop. Linear and
compound growth rates were calculated for this purpose. 10 growth models were fitted to the area, production and
productivity of chilli crop to watch the trend, and the best model for trend was chosen based mostly upon least Residual
Mean Square Error (RMSE) and vital R2 . Besides, the necessary assumption of randomness of residuals was checked
using one sample run test. The results unconcealed that linear and compound growth rates of area, production and
productivity of chilli in Telangana were ascertained to be in considerably increasing trend throughout the study. Among all
the trend models, polynomial trend was found to be the best fitted one for all the aspects of Telangana state. The analyses
forecast chilli production for the year 2018 to be 308.66 t t. These projections can facilitate formulation of appropriate
policies and steps to be taken to improve the crop production further.

KEYWORDS: Chilli, forecasting, growth rate, trends, modelling and production.

INTRODUCTION

Chile is an important commercial spice crop, and is produced throughout India, making our country one of
the leading producers in the world market. Synonymously called hot-pepper or wonder spice, it ranks among the most
widely used universal spice. Several different varieties of chiles are cultivated for various economic uses like vegetable,
pickles, spice, condiments and doubling as a nutraceutical crop (Geetha et al. (2017). As of the year 2014, India ranked 1st
in dry chili production (1.49 Mt) and 17th in green chili (0.69 Mt) in comparison to China, Indonesia and Egypt are the 1st
three contenders, respectively (FAO, 2014-15). Considering the Indian scenario in the year 2014-15, estimates suggest that
Telangana is the 2nd largest producer of dry chilies (0.3 Mt), following Andhra Pradesh and the 6 th largest producer of
green chilies (0.09 Mt) following Karnataka, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand & Haryana, respectively. Productivity
wise, Telangana ranks 3rd at 3.54 t/ha followed by Andhra Pradesh (4.58 t/ha) and Uttarakhand (3.60 t/ha), respectively.
The average productivity in Khammam district was 3453 Kg/ha and production was 11.318 t t, respectively
(Velayutham, L.K. and Damodaran, K., 2015). Collars are an important ingredient in many different cuisines across
nations adding pungency, taste, flavor and color to food. Indian chili is acclaimed for its color and pungency levels. Some

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 122 G. Sathish, K. Supriya, M.H.V. Bhave & Samrat Laha

varieties are famous for the red color and others for quality parameters in Chile like length, width, skin thickness and
antioxidant compounds (Howard et al., 2000). A wide spectrum of antioxidants viz. Vitamins, carotenoids, capsaicinoids
and phenolic compounds are present in hot pepper fruits. The intakes of these compounds as food, supplement
health-protection against several diseases. As consumption continues to increase, hot peppers could provide important
amounts of nutritional antioxidants in the human diet. Green chilies are rich in proteins 2.9 g per 100 g. Ca, Mg, P, K, Cu
and S. Vitamins like Thiamine, Riboflavin and Vitamin C.

In a recent study by Sathish et al. (2015), it was reported that area in both Andhra Pradesh & Telangana was in a
decreasing trend in relation to an area, whereas production and productivity were increasing. It was also duly noted that
production of chili showed the highest degree of instability compared to area and productivity. Sarada et al. (2015), the
study indicated the impact of weather conditions on production and productivity of chili in Guntur district of Andhra
Pradesh and may help in developing forecasting models based on climatic conditions. Rao and Reddy (2005) worked out
the growth rates of area, production and productivity of groundnut for the period I (1988-89 to 2002-03) and period II
(1953-56 to 2002-03) in the three geographical regions of Andhra Pradesh and also Andhra Pradesh state as a whole.
The compound growth rate of the area is significant only in Rayalaseema, production is significant in all three regions and
Andhra Pradesh state as a whole and productivity is significant in Coastal Andhra and Andhra Pradesh state as a whole.

Growth models are useful in drawing inferences regarding the exact relationship between time and growth,
the rate of growth at each point of time, the turning points in the growth and growth rates are considered as the best indices
of growth. Thus, from food, nutritional, medicinal and economic security point of view, study of production behavior and
its future prediction is of utmost importance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The present study is based on 40 years of data i.e., from 1971 to 2010. The area, production and productivity of
chili in Telangana were obtained from the publications of CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy), Statistical
abstracts of Andhra Pradesh and also from www.indiastat.com. In order to examine the nature of change and degree of
relationship in area, production and productivity of chili in Telangana, various statistical measures such as mean, skewness,
kurtosis and coefficient of variation were worked out.

Descriptive Statistics

To examine the nature of each series, these have been subjected to get various statistics. Descriptive
statistics are typically distinguished from inferential statistics. With descriptive statistics, one simply describes what is or
what the data shows. With inferential statistics, one tries t o reach conclusions, that extend beyond the immediate data
alone. Statistical tools used to describe the above series are minimum, maximum, average, standard error, skewness,
kurtosis.

The linear growth rate (LGR) and compound growth rate (CGR) for the crop characteristics i.e., Area, production
and productivity of chili crop in three regions of Andhra Pradesh are estimated by fitting the following functions.

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 An Analysis of Growth Rate and Trend of Chilli in Telangana 123

Parametric trend models

Table 1
Model A functional form Growth rate
b
Linear function Yt = a + bt LGR (%) = x 100
y
Compound function Yt = a b t CGR (%) = (b-1) x 100
Inverse function Yt = a + b/t
Quadratic function Yt = a + bt + ct2
Cubic function Yt = a + bt + ct2 + dt3
Logarithmic function Yt = a + b ln(t)
S-curve function Yt = Exp (a+b/t)
Growth function Yt = Exp (a + bt)
Power function Yt = atb
Exponential function Yt = a Exp (bt)

The models fitted to the time series data of area, production and productivity are linear, logarithmic, inverse,
quadratic, cubic, compound, S-curve, growth, power and exponential. It was observed that R 2 is not enough to examine
goodness of fit of a model (Reddy, 1978). So, in addition to R2, the residual mean square error (RMSE) which will measure
the accuracy in forecasting is also the best criterion to choose a model from among the alternatives. The most important
assumption of randomness of residuals was tested by using one sample run test.

Where,

K is the number of constants in the equation

N is the total number of observations

(X i X i ) 2
RMSE i 1

The model which showed relatively the least residual mean square error (RMSE), significant R2 and significant
runs are chosen for the purpose of trend fitting.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Since 1970, the area under chilli cultivation has been increased from 82.98 t ha to 84.17 t ha till 2010, registering
linear and compound rates of almost 1.16 percent and 1.30 per cent per annum, respectively. The average area under chilli
being 90.12 t ha. Kurtosis value of area reveals negative and platykurtic. Negative skewness value of area indicates that
there has been decreasing early half of the study period. With a mere 46.69 t t of production, it has reached to 300.34 t t
during the year 2010 and registering linear and compound growth of almost 4.94 and 6.30 per cent per annum,
respectively. Increased production of chilli would not been possible without a substantial increasing per hectare yield of the

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 124 G. Sathish, K. Supriya, M.H.V. Bhave & Samrat Laha

crop. Starting with only 562.70 kg of chilli per hectare, it has reached to 3567.97 kg ha-1 during the year 2010; the results
are given in Table 1. Thus, the joint effect of expansion area and yield has resulted in a brighter picture of chilli production
scenario in Telangana. There has been substantial growth in area, production and yield of chilli during the period under
investigation.

Trend Behavior of Chilli in Telangana

To work out the trends in area, production and yield of Chilli in Telangana, different parametric models like
linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, S-curve, growth, power and exponential models were attempted
among the competitive models. The present study reveals that the area of Chilli in Telangana region showed a constant
growth pattern and decreased in the last year during the study period of 1971 to 2010. The results obtained by fitting all the
ten growth models R2 values for all the models were ranging from 0.141 in case of inverse and 0.573 in case of power
function, respectively. Almost all the models R2 values were significant at 1% level of significance. Only quadratic, cubic
and power models satisfied the assumption of randomness of residuals. Polynomial function of second degree was found to
be the best trend equation for future projection purpose of area, as it has exhibited the least RMS significant R2, given in
Table 2 and also satisfied the assumption of randomness of residuals.

The Production of Chilli in Telangana region showed a systematic growth pattern and increased during the study
period of 1971 to 2010. The results obtained by fitting all the ten growth models R2 values for all the models were ranging
from 0.219 in case of inverse and 0.903 in case of cubic function. Almost all the models R 2 values were significant at 1%
level of significance. Except logarithmic, inverse and s-curve models, all models are satisfied with the assumption of
randomness of residuals. Polynomial function of third degree was found to be the best trend equation for future projection
purpose of production; it has exhibited the least RMS and significant R2 as
given in Table 2 and also satisfied the
assumption of randomness of residuals.

The Productivity of Chilli in Telangana region showed an increasing trend during the study period of 1971 to
2010. The results obtained by fitting all the ten growth models R2 values for all the models were ranging from 0.184 in case
of inverse and 0.923 in case of cubic function, respectively. Almost all the models R2 values were significant at 1% level of
significance. Except inverse and s-curve models, all models are satisfied with the assumption of randomness of residuals.
Polynomial function of third degree was found to be the best trend equation for future projection purpose of productivity; it
has exhibited the least RMS and significant R2 as given in Table 2 and also satisfied the assumption of randomness of
residuals.

Observed and Forecasted of Area, Production and Yield of Chilli in Telangana

After identification of best fitted trend model, the same model was used for forecasting of area, production and
productivity of chilli crop in Telangana, the results are shown in Table 3. From figure 1, it is clear that there no much
different in observed and forecasted values of chilli with respect to area, production and productivity. From the forecast
values obtained, it can be said that forecasted production and productivity will increase to some extent in future, and it
would be 308.66 thousand hectares and 5366.21 kg ha-1during 2018, whereas forecasted area will decrease to some extent
in future and it would be 67.45 t ha, respectively.

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 An Analysis of Growth Rate and Trend of Chilli in Telangana 125

CONCLUSIONS

From the present study, it is inferred that among the area, production and productivity of chilli in Telangana, the
production exhibited higher growth rates with an increasing trend, due to increased trend in growth rates of area and
productivity. The future projections in case of area polynomial function indicated decreasing trend in area, in case of
production and productivity, the polynomial function indicated that there would be significant increase in future. And, it
was concluded that the linear and compound growth rates of area under chilli even though positive, in recent past, area
under chilli is gradually decreasing in Telangana state. So, policy makers and research workers should keep an eye on this
aspect and take necessary actions to rejuvenate area under chilli in Telangana by appropriate schemes and regulations
which encourage the chilli farmers to take up chilli cultivation.

Table 2: Per Se Behavior of Chilli Production in Telangana during 1970-2010

Area Production Productivity
(thousand hectares) (thousand tonnes) (Kg ha-1)
Mean 90.12 147.21 1553.06
Kurtosis -0.12 -1.28 -0.28
Skewness -0.42 0.29 0.75
Minimum 44.97 18.37 277.09
Maximum 129.14 300.35 3567.98
LGR (%) 1.16** 4.94** 4.44**
CGR (%) 1.30** 6.30** 4.90**

Table 3: Growth models for Area, Production and Productivity of Chilli in Telangana
Model Constant b1 b2 b3 R2 RMSE RUNS F Sig.
Area Polynomial 44.37 4.513 -0.084 0.602** 137.69 19 15.866 0
Production Polynomial 39.14 -1.585 0.438 -0.0006 0.910** 78.64 23 113.954 0
Productivity Polynomial 446.12 53.83 -1.77 0.588 0.929** 58.23 21 182.94 0

Table 4: Model validation and forecasting of area, production and productivity of chilli of Telangana
Area ( thousand hectares) Production ( thousand tonnes) Productivity (Kg ha-1)
YEAR
Observed Predicated Observed Predicated Observed Predicated
2009 81.67 92.61 287.43 287.60 3519.46 3293.82
2010 84.17 90.49 300.34 292.54 3567.97 3479.32
2011 88.19 296.90 3675.19
2012 85.74 300.67 3881.80
2013 83.11 303.80 4099.48
2014 80.31 306.26 4328.59
2015 77.35 308.01 4569.47
2016 74.22 309.02 4822.46
2017 70.92 309.24 5087.93
2018 67.45 308.66 5366.21

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126 G. Sathish, K. Supriya, M.H.V. Bhave & Samrat Laha

Figure 1: Trend of Chilli Area, Production and Productivity in Telangana

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An Analysis of Growth Rate and Trend of Chilli in Telangana 127

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