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- Market Realist
The company is preparing for its biggest acquisition yet of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) for
$38 billion excluding debt. This move will change Qualcomms business model from fabless
to IDM (integrated device manufacturer) and mark its entry into the highly competitive MCU
(microcontroller) market.
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Qualcomm has also extended a tender offer to NXP shareholders to sell their shares to it by
May 31, 2017. On May 1, 2017, Qualcomm had validly tendered 14.9% of NXPs outstanding
common shares. The company has to validly tender 80% of NXPs outstanding shares to
complete the tender.
In 2H17, Qualcomm will raise new debt to the tune of $10 billion$12 billion to fund the
acquisition.
However, IC Insights senior market research analyst, Rob Lineback, told EE Times that
Qualcomm would easily adjust to the MCU market because NXPs MCUs are based on ARM
architecture, and even Qualcomm uses ARM designs for its processors. Although MCUs and
processors are two separate businesses, ARM is the common ground for both companies.
Next, lets see how the merger could impact the combined companys earnings.
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However, the acquisition could also pose an integration challenge to Qualcomm, as theres
little overlap of products, and the business models of both companies are different. So why is
Qualcomm keen on acquiring NXP?
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In 2017, its key customer Apple (AAPL) and several countries regulators ganged up on its
licensing model.
Moreover, a slowdown in the Smartphone market has hit Qualcomms chipset revenue,
which accounts for more than 60% of its total revenue. The company has been searching for
alternative revenue sources for quite some time, but its growth in adjacent markets has been
slow due to strong competition from incumbents such as NVIDIA and Texas Instruments.
The acquisition of NXP could jump-start Qualcomms initiatives in the automotive, IoT
(Internet of Things), and digital networking spaces and increase its chipset business by 40%.
NXPs higher operating margin could also improve QCTs profit margins and help Qualcomm
to offset any falls in its QTL segment.
A merger with Qualcomm would give NXP brand recognition, scale, digital computing, and
wireless connectivity technologies. Qualcomm has a strong say in setting industry standards,
and its brand could help NXP to play a key role in setting standards for autonomous cars.
Moreover, NXP will gain access to Qualcomms research efforts, which could accelerate the
companys development of new products and make it competitive.
Combined company
Canaccord Genuity anticipates the NXP acquisition to increase Qualcomms non-GAAP
(generally accepted accounting principles) EPS (earnings per share) by ~15% in 2018. The
benefits of the acquisition are expected to offset any falls in Apples royalty payments.
Next, well see how the NXP merger could change QCTs earnings.
The data showed a shift in the trend away from premium phones toward mid- and low-end
phones. While Samsung (SSNLF) and Apple (AAPL) reported flat growths, Chinese (FXI)
vendors Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo reported more than 20% YoY growths in 1Q17. As
Qualcomm is having trouble with Samsung and Apple, this shift in trend fared well for the
chip supplier.
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Despite this setback, the companys QCT revenue rose because it included the one-month
sales of its RF360 joint venture, which equates to ~$75 million. RF360 is Qualcomms
Singapore-based RFFE (radio frequency front-end) joint venture with TDK Corporation.
Moreover, Qualcomm witnessed strong demand for its Snapdragon processors from the
wearables, drone, connected car, and other IoT (Internet of Things) markets. All this
improved QCTs operating margin from 5% in fiscal 2Q16 to 13% in fiscal 2Q17.
The segments revenue is likely to fall as the company faces a supply shortage of its
Snapdragon 835 processor, which is being manufactured on Samsungs 10nm (nanometer)
node. The supply constraints are mainly due to the initial yields on the 10nm node being
lower and Samsungs using the node to manufacture its own Exynos processor and
Snapdragon 835 processor. Qualcomms chief financial officer, George Davis, expects these
supply issues to be resolved by fiscal 4Q17.
Qualcomm expects its MSM shipments to be between 180 million and 200 million units in
fiscal 3Q17, lower than the 201 million units it shipped in fiscal 3Q16 but close to the 179
million units it shipped in fiscal 2Q17. These shipments are likely to be lower as Chinese
OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) reduce the excess inventory that was created in
fiscal 2Q17.
However, things are likely to improve in fiscal 4Q17 and beyond as the Snapdragon 835
becomes available to more Smartphone manufacturers and the company accelerates its
efforts in the wearables, drone, connected car, IoT, personal computer, and data center
markets.
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The company stated that its witnessing strong demand for its Snapdragon 835 from several
handset makers who want to feature the SoC in their new premium-tier devices, including the
Samsung (SSNLF) Galaxy S8 and S8 Plus, the Sony (SNE) Xperia XZ Premium, and the
Xiaomi Mi 6.
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Snapdragon 835 consumes lower power and gives Smartphone makers more space to use larger
batteries, improving battery life.
Snapdragon 835 features the Qualcomm Quick Charge 4.0, which the company claims is four times
faster than the conventional charging technology and 30% faster than its predecessor, the Quick
Charge 3.0. As the processor operates at lower power, it also generates less heat.
As the 10nm LPP node is just a performance-enhanced version of its predecessor, the 10nm
LPE, there may not be any yield issues. Wccftech and Tweaktown reported that Qualcomms
next SoC is likely to come in 2018 and be named Snapdragon 845. This name accidentally
appeared on Qualcomms official website.
Qualcomm has also launched products for upper-mid and mid-tier phones. Well look into this
next.
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On Qualcomms fiscal 2Q17 earnings call, its CEO, Steve Mollenkopf, stated that the
companys 600 series would be featured in more than 200 devices and designs, and its 400
series would be featured in more than 190 devices and designs.
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Snapdragon 660
Processing power: Snapdragon 660 SoC (system-on-chip) features four Kryo 260 central
processing units that deliver a 20% performance improvement. The 660 has a memory
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bandwidth of 29.9 Gbps (gigabits per second), nearly double that of its predecessor.
Connectivity: The SoC features the X12 LTE (long-term evolution) modem, which was first
featured in the Snapdragon 820 in 2016. This modem delivers up to 600 Mbps (megabits per
second) of downstream and 150 Mbps of upstream connectivity. The Snapdragon 835
features a gigabit LTE modem.
Image processing: The SoC supports 4K through its Spectrum 160 ISP (image signal
processor), which can capture high-definition 4K videos at 30 FPS (frames per second) and
1080p videos at 120 FPS. Snapdragon 835 features the Spectra 180 ISP.
Charging: The SoC features Qualcomm Quick Charge 4.0, which the company claims can
charge a phone for five hours of usage in just five minutes. This feature is also available in
Snapdragon 835.
With this, Qualcomm is enhancing the performances of upper mid-range phones, bringing
them closer to premium handsets.
Qualcomm has entered into a JV (joint venture) with Chinas Datang Telecom and Jianguang
Asset Management to develop low-cost Smartphone chips worth $10. This joint venture will
likely give tough competition to Taiwans MediaTek and Chinas Spreadtrum
Communications, which cater to the low-tier Smartphone market.
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Qualcomm is going beyond Smartphones and into alternative markets. Well take a look at
this in the next article.
As we come closer to being a fully connected world, mobile technologies are being adopted
by more and more devices. Qualcomm is tapping into this opportunity to expand in the
wearables, automotive, IoT (Internet of Things), PC (personal computer), and data center
markets.
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Qualcomm has developed Snapdragon processors for the wearables and automotive
spaces. The company claims that its Snapdragon Wear processors are inside more than
80% of Android Smartwatches worldwide. QCOM witnessed strong demand from the
automotive, networking, and IoT markets in fiscal 2Q17, indicating that its products were
gaining traction.
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Until now, Windows PCs were powered only by Intels (INTC) x86 chips. Now, Qualcomm will
compete with Intel even in the PC and data center processor markets. Qualcomms CEO,
Steve Mollenkopf, said on the companys fiscal 2Q17 earnings call that Snapdragon-powered
Windows 10 laptops would be launched by PC vendors in fiscal 4Q17.
The integration of NXP could increase QCTs revenue by 60% to ~$25 billion and its
operating margin by ~20% in fiscal 2018.
Qualcomm is not only expanding its processor business but also its wireless connectivity
business by taking the lead in the 5G (fifth-generation) revolution. Next, well look at the
companys efforts in the 5G space.
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Qualcomms efforts focused on the connected world
Qualcomm (QCOM) is proceeding with its acquisition of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) to add
microcontrollers to its portfolio and cater to the automotive and IoT (Internet of Things)
markets. Moreover, the company is expanding its Snapdragon processors beyond
Smartphones to other connected devices.
Qualcomm plans to focus the combined companys technology, sales channel, and scale
toward the larger growth opportunity of the connected world.
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On Qualcomms fiscal 2Q17 earnings call, its CEO, Steve Mollenkopf, talked about how the
company would leverage its connectivity, computing, and security solutions to meet the future
needs of the connected world. Below is a synopsis of his statements.
5G modem
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The 5G (fifth-generation) revolution will expand the mobile ecosystem beyond phones and
connect multiple devices simultaneously.
In late 2016, Qualcomm unveiled the industrys first 5G modem, Snapdragon X50. In
February 2017, the company enhanced this modem by adding support for the global 5G NR
(new radio) standard across the millimeter wave and sub-6 gigahertz frequency bands. It also
made the 5G modem compatible with earlier 2G (second-generation), 3G (third-generation),
4G (fourth-generation), and 4G LTE (long-term evolution) technologies.
Mollenkopf expects the first 5G NR-backed commercial products and network to be launched
in 2019. Qualcomm has partnered with Softbank and Sprint (S) for this purpose.
These 5G efforts will likely take at least two years to start generating returns. In the
meantime, Qualcomm is expanding its reach and identifying emerging markets for its existing
technologies to boost growth. Well explore this initiative next.
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Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 8 OF 11
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India has a higher proportion of young people than many countries, and theres increasing awareness
of Smartphone and related services in the population.
Indian carriers such as Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone (VOD), and Idea Cellular are accelerating
their 4G network deployments.
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Local handset brands are active and popular in the mid- and low-range Smartphone space. However,
local players trail behind international players in the high-end market.
India has end-to-end hardware and software manufacturing capabilities that make it the supply base
for several IoT products.
Paulson supported his statements with data. He said that India is the largest data
consumption market, as 80% of Internet traffic is mobile, and this traffic is transmitted over
400 million Internet connections. He expects 3G (third-generation) and 4G mobile
connections in the country to reach over 540 million, with a unique mobile subscriber base
surpassing 1 billion, by 2020.
Indias strong growth potential has attracted Apple (AAPL) and Chinese handset makers as
well. According to IDC (International Data Corporation), 51.4% of Smartphone shipments in
India in 1Q17 were from Chinese handset makers.
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The company is looking to invest in customer engineering and marketing to bring cost-
efficient technology to a larger audience and boost 4G adoption in the country.
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4G infrastructure
Qualcomms senior vice president of Asia Pacific & India, James Cathey, told The Economic
Times that the company is in talks with Indian carriers for network planning and optimization.
Cathey said, We will also continue to put infrastructure RF (radio frequency) design
center, audio, camera and interoperability testing that global and local brands are able to
use.
4G devices
Cathey stated that Qualcomm is also developing products and designs for phones and IoT
(Internet of Things) devices to make local handset brands competitive. Its set up research
labs and is making venture capital investments to develop products in India.
Qualcomms 205 mobile platform, which brings 4G capabilities to entry-level phones, was
developed by its engineering team in India. The company is working with Indian players such
as Micromax, Reliance Jio, and several Chinese OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) to
launch 4G VoLTE (voice over long-term evolution) feature phones powered by the 205
platform.
Qualcomm has entered into a 3G (third-generation) and 4G patent licensing deal with
Smartron India. The two will also collaborate on early access to new technology and
advancements for RF, camera testing, and tuning.
Even Apple (AAPL) is tapping the Indian market by establishing a design and development
center for its iOS in Bangalore, India.
affordable prices to drive the adoption of 4G technology. Once consumers get used to the 4G
experience and its advanced features, they may want to upgrade to better-quality phones,
driving demand for higher-end devices.
However, Qualcomms investors werent too impressed by these growth efforts as licensing
disputes overshadowed the companys future growth potential. Next, lets look at the
companys stock performance.
However, there was increased optimism among investors in May 2017 after the company
launched its Snapdragon 600 series and its Snapdragon 835 witnessed strong demand. Lets
see what a technical analysis says about investors sentiments toward Qualcomm.
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On the other hand, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) is trading at $107.27, above its 50-day
and 100-day moving averages of $105 and $102, respectively. Broadcom (AVGO) is trading
at $237.66, well above its 50-day moving average of $222 and its 100-day moving average of
$210.
RSI
The RSI (relative strength index) is a technical indicator that measures the intensity of
investors sentiments on a stock. The RSI is measured on a scale of zero to 100, with less
than 30 indicating that a stock has been oversold and more than 70 indicating that a stock
has been overbought.
On May 18, 2017, Qualcomms 14-day RSI was 69. Over the past week, the stocks RSI has
fallen from over 70 to under 70. The stocks price rose 2.6% between May 11 and 18, 2017.
On May 18, NXPIs RSI was 71, and Broadcoms RSI was 70. Overall, theres strong
optimism in the communications semiconductor market.
A stocks being overbought indicates a potential downturn. Hence, analysts have consensus
hold recommendations for QCOM and NXP. Even though Broadcom has been overbought
and is trading well above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, analysts are optimistic
about the stock and have given it a strong consensus buy recommendation.
Next, well see whether QCOMs stock price justifies its fundamental valuation.
On the other hand, Broadcoms (AVGO) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) stocks are trading
at $237.66 and $107.27, near their 52-week highs. Lets look at these companies stock
prices and see whether their prices justify their earnings.
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Price-to-sales
A companys PS (price-to-sales) multiple tells us what investors are willing to pay for every
dollar of its sales. Qualcomm had a PS multiple of 3.57x on May 18, 2017. This metric was
lower than Broadcoms and NXPs PS multiples of 6.11x and 3.91x, respectively.
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Price-to-EBITDA
A companys EBIDTA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization)
reflects the outcome of its operating decisions. It removes the effect of any financial
decisions in the form of interest paid on debt, government decisions in the form of tax rates,
and accounting decisions in the form of treating non-cash items like depreciation and
amortization.
Qualcomms price-to-EBITDA multiple stood at 10.08x on May 18, 2017. This metric was
much higher than NXPs 10.53x but lower than Broadcoms 20.70x.
Price-to-FCF
A companys price-to-FCF (free cash flow) multiple tells us what investors are willing to pay
for every dollar of its free cash flow. Free cash flow is the cash available to the company after
we remove its capital expenditure from the equation. Its the free cash that the company may
either return to its shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks or reinvest in its
business for future growth opportunities.
Qualcomm has reduced its share buybacks. Its looking to reinvest in its business in the form
of its acquisition of NXP Semiconductors.
Qualcomms price-to-FCF multiple stood at 33.83x on May 18, 2017. This metric was higher
than NXPs 18.68x but lower than Broadcoms 41.06x. The high multiple indicates that the
companys future FCFs are likely to fall.
Overall, investors are slightly bearish about Qualcomms earnings compared to Broadcoms.
However, the stock should have long-term growth potential when its regulatory and legal
headwinds clear.
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Over 31% of total revenue was recurring in nature compared to 29% of revenue in fiscal
3Q16. Revenue was driven by a 9% YoY rise in its Security segment and a 13% YoY rise in
its Wireless segment in fiscal 3Q17. Revenues in its Collaboration, Routing, and Data Center
businesses fell 4%, 2%, and 5%, respectively, in fiscal 3Q17. Revenue from its Service
Provider Video segment fell 30%, whereas revenue from its Switching segment rose 2% in
fiscal 3Q17.
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Other highlights
On a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, Ciscos net income was $2.5
billion with EPS of $0.50 in fiscal 3Q17.
Ciscos GAAP gross margin and product margin stood at 63% and 61.7%, respectively, in
the quarter. Its GAAP operating expenses fell 8% YoY to $4.3 billion. Ciscos cash flow from
operations was $3.4 billion in fiscal 3Q17, a rise of 10% YoY compared to $3.1 billion in fiscal
3Q16.
Cisco stock fell over 7% on May 18 to close at $31.38 due in part to weak guidance and the
companys announcement of 1,100 job cuts. Cisco expects revenue between $11.9 billion
and $12.1 billion in fiscal 4Q17, a fall of 4%6% YoY. In comparison, analysts expected Cisco
to post revenue of $12.5 billion in fiscal 4Q17.
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Cisco is a market leader in the networking space. It has a market cap of $169 billion. Its main
competitors include Dell Technologies (DVMT), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Europes
(EFA) Ericsson (ERIC). These companies have market caps of $13.5 billion, $11.4 billion,
and $22 billion, respectively.
Prior to fiscal 3Q17, Cisco saw double-digit growth for five consecutive quarters. Its deferred
revenue rose 39% YoY, driven by Ciscos ongoing shift from hardware-based to software-
based and subscription-based services. Its revenue rose from $483 million in fiscal 3Q16 to
$527 million in fiscal 3Q17. In the nine months ended April 29, 2017, revenue rose 12% YoY
to $1.6 billion.
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Ciscos CEO, Charles Robbins, said, Deferred revenue grew 39%, demonstrating the value
of our solutions and ongoing delivery of innovation. Services was down 2%. Normalized for
the extra week, it grew 4%. Were continuing to focus on renewals and attach rates.
market include Check Point (CHKP), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Fortinet (FTNT), and
Huawei with shares of 12.3%, 11.1%, 9.5% and 4.7%, respectively.
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Cisco acquired MindMeld in fiscal 3Q17, which will enhance the collaboration experience
through artificial intelligence (or AI) and machine learning. Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins stated,
As chat and voice quickly become the interfaces of choice, MindMelds AI technology will
enable Cisco to deliver unique experiences throughout its portfolio. This acquisition will
power new conversational interfaces for Ciscos collaboration products, revolutionizing how
users will interact with our technology while increasing ease-of-use and enabling new
capabilities.
According to a research report from Synergy Research Group, Cisco leads the Collaboration
market with a share of 15% at the end of 4Q16. The other players in this market include
Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM) with market shares of 12% and 4%, respectively.
Last year, Cisco stated that it was well-positioned to drive the transition to software-defined
wide area networking (or WAN) with its IWAN (Intelligent WAN) portfolio, which would give it
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opportunities in the routing space. According to Cisco, it was seeing continued strength in its
web-scale customers, where its core development continued.
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Huawei with market shares of 16.9% and 18.8%, respectively. While revenue for Cisco fell
4.8% YoY in 4Q16, Junipers and Huaweis revenue rose 6.5% and 16.2% YoY in 4Q16.
The global routing market is projected to be a $14 billion market, rising at a CAGR
(compound annual growth rate) of 1%. In the routing space, NFV (network functions
virtualization) and network management orchestration are projected to rise at a CAGR of
79.0% over the next three years.
According to Cisco, this 2% rise was driven by solid growth in data center switching, driven
by ongoing strength in the ACI portfolio which was up 42%. Campus business, which
accounts for over 65% of Ciscos Switching segments revenue, also rose marginally in fiscal
3Q17.
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In the first nine months of fiscal 2017, Ciscos Switching segments revenue has fallen 5%
YoY to $10.5 billion. Switching is Ciscos largest business segment and accounts for
approximately 30% of total revenue.
Switches contain ports to connect different network segments. Switches are like hubs,
networking devices that connect multiple devices to networks using cables, but they perform
better. Switching is a networking technology used in campuses, branch offices, and data
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centers. Switches are used within buildings in local-area networks and across great
distances in wide-area networks.
According to Wi-Fi Alliance, the Wave 2 can achieve higher gigabit speeds. It also helps in
connecting more devices and is better in terms of bandwidth, performance, and flexibility. A
wireless local area network (or LAN) uses radio waves to connect devices such as laptops
and smartphones to the Internet.
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CEO Chuck Robbins stated, We continue to innovate with the launch in the quarter of new
wireless networking solutions, including a new Wave 2 access point and a wireless
controller.
The companys Wireless segment reported the highest growth for Cisco in fiscal 3Q17. In
the nine months of fiscal 2017, revenues rose 5% YoY to almost $2 billion. This
segment accounts for 5.5% of the companys total revenue.
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Cisco leads the WLAN market as well
IDCs latest report on the global WLAN (wireless local area network) segment states that
Cisco continued to lead the market with a share of 43.6% at the end of 4Q16 compared to
45% in 4Q15. The global WLAN market rose 7.2% YoY in 2016.
Ubiquitis and Huaweis revenues rose significantly YoY in 4Q16 by 97% and 55.3%,
respectively. Ubiquiti accounted for 5.2% of the overall market in 4Q16, up from 2.7% in
4Q15. Huawei accounted for 6.2% of the market in 4Q16 as compared to 4.1% in 4Q15.
HPE (HPE) and Brocade (BRCD) are the other major players with market shares of 13.5%
and 5.1% at the end of 4Q16, respectively.
In fiscal 2017, Cisco returned $6.6 billion to its shareholders through share buybacks and
dividends, which accounted for 70% of its total free cash flow. Cisco had earlier announced
an authorization for an increase of $15 billion to its share repurchase program.
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Dividend yield
Ciscos dividends rose from $0.19 in fiscal 3Q14 to $0.21 in fiscal 3Q15, $0.26 in fiscal 3Q16,
and $0.29 in fiscal 3Q17. Cisco increased its dividend yield 10.5% YoY in fiscal 2Q15, 24%
YoY in fiscal 2Q16, and 11.5% YoY in fiscal 2Q17. The total rise was 53% over the last three
years.
Cisco has a dividend yield of 3.5%, while its technology peers (QQQ) IBM (IBM), Hewlett
Packard Enterprise (HPE), and NetApp (NTAP) have dividend yields of 3.9%, 1.4%, and 3%,
respectively.
Ciscos chief financial officer, Kelly Kramer, said, Q3 was a solid quarter and we executed
well. Were focused on driving operational efficiencies and profitability, enabling us to make
the strategic investments to drive long term shareholder value.
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Europes (EFA) Nokia (NOK), Ericsson (ERIC), and Juniper Networks (JNPR), Ciscos peers
in the communications equipment space, posted returns of -28.0%, -36.0%, and 4.0%,
respectively, in 2016.
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Moving averages
On May 18, 2017, Cisco closed the trading day at $31.38. Based on this figure, heres how
the stock fared in terms of its moving averages:
The companys 14-day RSI (relative strength index) is 25, which shows that the stock is
oversold. Usually, if an RSI is above 70, it indicates that a stock is overbought. An RSI below
30 suggests that a stock is oversold.
Analyst recommendations
Of the 33 analysts covering Cisco stock, 20 have issued buy recommendations, and 13
have issued hold recommendations.
The consensus analyst stock price target for the company is $35.50 with a median target
estimate of $36. This means Cisco is trading at a discount of 14.7% to its median target
price.
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Salesforce stock reached an all-time high in May 2017
May 2017 proved to be a rewarding month for Salesforce (CRM) investors. After shedding
close to 10% of its market value in 2016, which it gained the year before, Salesforce started
2017 on a positive note, with minor ups and downs.
Salesforce stock continued its upward trajectory and on May 12, 2017, it reached its all-time
high of $88.04. For a detailed account, please read What Could Boost Salesforce to an All-
Time High in 2017?
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According to StreetInsider.com, Zukin has a bullish stance on Salesforce and expects fiscal
1Q18 to be a strong quarter for both enterprise and commercial across multiple verticals and
geographies.
Zukin reiterated his overweight rating on Salesforce stock with a price target of $100 that
remains unchanged, stating, We continue to believe that the company remains well
positioned for the year.
Later in this series, well look at the factors that could contribute to Salesforces success in
2017.
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Previously in this series, we discussed the factors that led Salesforce stock to reach its all-
time high last week. We also discussed analysts expectations from the soon-to-be-
announced Salesforces (CRM) fiscal 1Q18 earnings.
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In the past seven years, including its fiscal 4Q17 results, the company has met or exceeded
analysts expectations with each passing quarter. In our view, we believe that Salesforces
fiscal 1Q18 earnings could continue this trend.
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2
Increased cloud adoption and the dominance of SaaS in the cloud space has benefited
Salesforce in particular, which derives the majority of its revenues from subscription and
support revenues. Although it lost its leadership to Microsoft in the SaaS space, Salesforce is
3
a leader in the CRM space.
Salesforces double-digit revenue growth with each passing quarter has enabled it to raise its
guidance. It expects revenues and EPS (earnings per share) of $2.34 billion$2.35 billion
and $0.25$0.26, respectively, in fiscal 1Q18. Salesforce aims to record $20 billion in
revenues by fiscal 20212022.
2. software-as-a-service
This is the fourth fund from Salesforce Ventures, a venture capital arm of Salesforce.
Salesforce Ventures, established in 2009, invests in the next generation of enterprise
technology. Through its four funds, each armed with a different objective, Salesforce has
raised $350 million.
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The latest fund launch shows Salesforce increasing its inclination toward AI, which is
expected to drive $2 trillion in spending during the next computing cycle. In 2016, the
company launched Salesforce Einstein, an AI platform that it describes as the worlds first
comprehensive artificial intelligence platform for CRM. Einstein features are available across
all of the companys cloud offerings.
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AI has recently caught the interest of Salesforce, and the company has been busy
embedding AI features into its cloud offerings. By launching its new VC fund, aimed at AI,
Salesforce has taken another step to push itself in the AI space. This discussion is
incomplete without Salesforce Einstein, the companys AI platform.
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Sharing her thoughts on partnering with Salesforce, Ginni Rometty, the chairman,
president, and chief executive officer of IBM, said, Within a few years, every major decision
personal or businesswill be made with the help of AI and cognitive technologies.
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Through this partnership, Salesforce is aiming to empower its customers, ensure customer
stickiness, and retain its hold in the CRM space. It also plans to expand in AI, a disruptive
technology that is expected to pair with ML (machine learning) to drive the expected $2
trillion in spending during the next new computing cycle.
Just like the overall cloud space, Salesforce faces fierce competition in the AI space. Morgan
Stanley (MS) considers Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and IBM as early but
underappreciated leaders in the AI space, with market shares between 20%30%.
Only time will tell if Salesforces initiatives and investments in AI and Einstein could bring
solid footing to the cloud space. Looking at the companys focus on AI, Einstein could
dominate Salesforces fiscal 1Q18 earnings.
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Earlier in this series, we discussed the factors that could provide some stimulus to Salesforce
stock as well as its newly launched VC fund, which is focused on AI.
Lets look into Salesforces (CRM) Sales Cloud offering, which is the largest contributor to the
companys subscription revenues. With revenues of ~$3.0 billion, CRMs Sales Cloud
contributed ~40% of Salesforces total revenues in 2017. Salesforce Sales Cloud could
report double-digit growth in fiscal 1Q18.
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Salesforce has also taken a strategic step to improve its Sales Cloud and other cloud
offerings. It announced the opening of the second data center in Japan (EWJ) in April 2017,
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which would expand and enhance its Intelligent Customer Success Platform. Its platform
comprises Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, App Cloud, Community Cloud, and Analytics Cloud.
Salesforce developed its Sales Cloud offering to enable companies to access stock data,
observe leads and progress, predict opportunities, and develop understanding through
relationship intelligence. In fiscal 2017, Sales Cloud grew 13% to become the first $3 billion
cloud.
Later in the series, well discuss how Microsoft (MSFT) is posing a threat to Salesforces
Sales Cloud.
Salesforces addition of Salesforce Einsteins features to its cloud offerings is one such step.
This move is expected to boost its Sales Cloud and give Salesforce an edge over its peers in
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the CRM space.
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Alex Zukin, a senior research analyst with Piper Jaffray, believes that Service Cloud
continues to lead the pack, as the company is pursuing to enhance its reach with Sales
Cloud customers.
In late 2016, Salesforce was named a Leader for SFA (sales force automation) in Gartners
Magic Quadrant for the tenth straight year. Salesforces vision and its execution of its Sales
Cloud Lightning offering enabled the company to retain this position.
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Salesforce has to safeguard its top position in CRM space, as it has already lost its
leadership position in the SaaS space to Microsoft. Later in this series, well discuss how
Microsofts (MSFT) largest acquisition to dateLinkedIncould be instrumental in
dethroning Salesforce in the CRM space.
From being a $23.2 billion market in 2014, Gartner expects CRM to become a $36.5 billion
market this year. Salesforce leads the CRM space with a market share of 19.7%, followed by
SAP (SAP), which has a 10.2% market share. Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft, and Adobe (ADBE)
rounded out the top five players.
Among them, Adobes revenues rose 26.9%, while Salesforce and Microsoft reported
revenue rises of 21.1% and 20%, respectively.
Microsoft, known for its aggressive stance in pursuing growth in the cloud space, passed
Salesforces position and is now a leader of the overall enterprise SaaS space. Although it
lost its position in the SaaS space, Salesforce still is a leader in the CRM (customer
relationship management) space.
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According to DestinationCRM, Salesforce stood as the winner for the second straight year
among its peersAdobe, Oracle, Salesforce, IBM (IBM), and Teradata (TDC). Marketo was
also listed as a company to watch for under Vista Equity Partners ownership in 2016.
Increasing social media usage has put the pressure on companies to not only adopt new
customer engagement strategies but also to refresh them on a regular basis. The exponential
growth in data, including customer data, increases the pressure on companies.
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Salesforce, being a leader in the CRM space, is expected to be at the forefront of current
technology and customer perceptions encompassing the CRM space. This is a space where
Microsoft, a strong competitor to Salesforce, is rapidly devising ways to strengthen its
presence.
Following in the footsteps of its peer Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft chose the price cut strategy
to thwart Salesforces dominance in the CRM space.
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In an April 2017 Microsoft blog post, Scott Guthrie, the tech giants executive vice president
of the Cloud and Enterprise Group, announced the availability of LinkedIn Sales Navigator
and Dynamics 365 for Sales at about half the cost of competitive solutions in the market,
available in July.
LinkedIn gave Microsoft access to large data sets, which are essential to the development of
AI (artificial intelligence). Gartner expects global IT spending to grow 1.4% to $3.5 trillion in
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2017 on the back of the confluence of cloud computing with emerging digital technologies
like AI and blockchain.
Microsofts Dynamics 365 boasts various AI features that integrate with ERP (enterprise
resource planning), CRM, and supply chain software. Morgan Stanley (MS) views data as the
holy grail of AI.
Citing a field survey conducted by Jefferies Group, in late 2016, the Wall Street Journal
reported that Microsoft Dynamics 365 was priced lower than Salesforces comparable
offering. Salesforce and Microsoft cater to a price-sensitive market, and Microsoft Dynamics
365 has the edge over Salesforce.
Since Microsoft trails Salesforce in market share by a wide margin (18+% for CRM versus
<2% for MSFT), Microsoft is pursuing a strategy to make further share gains by
discounting/bundling.
Correction: This was the original text replaced by the last sentence. By resorting to price
cuts, Microsoft is aiming for the top position in the price-sensitive CRM space.
also discuss how in the current macroeconomic scenario, limited international exposure of
Salesforce revenues is a blessing in disguise.
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According to an IDC Research report released in February 2017, the United States (SPY)
could be the largest market for the public cloud between 20152020, generating more than
60% of total global revenues. The US is followed by Western Europe and APeJ (Asia-Pacific
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excluding Japan), which are expected to spend $24.1 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively, in
2017.
Unlike Salesforce, its peers Microsoft (MSFT), IBM, and Oracle (ORCL), generate a
substantial portion of their revenues from the Americas. Although the US is the largest
market for the cloud, APeJ and Latin America are expected to have the fastest spending
1
growth, with CAGR of 28.0% and 26.6%, respectively, as reported by IDC. This explains
why Salesforce is ramping up its investments in Europe and Asia to expand its footprint
there.
Salesforce generates less than one-third of its revenues from outside the Americas
Earlier in this series, we discussed how Salesforces (CRM) limited international exposure
would benefit the company and its investors in the current scenario. Salesforce generates
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Salesforces dependence on the Americas raises a question about how the company would
be impacted by a rally in the US dollar in the rest of 2017.
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The chart above shows that Salesforces international revenue exposure is below average.
On the other hand, its peers SAP (SAP), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), and VMware
(VMW) have above-average international revenue exposure.
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Factors that could push the dollar higher in 2017
Although the US dollar (UUP) is currently down ~5% from its high in January 2017, there is
a strong possibility that it would gain strength in the rest of 2017 on the back of an increase in
the federal interest rate.
On January 3, 2017, the US dollar peaked at $103.80, its highest level in 14 years. The
following factors contributed to the dollars rise:
the Feds interest rate hike of 25 basis points on March 15, 2017, to 0.75%1%
improvement in US employment
expectations of fiscal stimulus and possible tax reforms (corporate tax rate reduction from 35% to
15%) under President Trump
the Feds interest rate hike by 25 basis points on December 14, 2016, to 0.50%0.75%
Later in the series, well discuss how these factors affect Salesforce as an investment option
in 2017.
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1
At the December 2016 meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to increase the target range
for the federal funds rate to 5075 basis points from the previous 2530 basis points.
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In the previous FOMC meeting held in March 2017, the Fed announced a 0.25% rate hike.
Now, industry analysts expect interest rate hikes in June 2017 and September 2017. This
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expectation of multiple interest rate hikes could push the US dollar higher in 2017.
The strong US dollar is expected to be one of the key downside catalysts for software
companies like Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), and Oracle (ORCL), which generate a majority
of their revenues outside the US.
Salesforces attractiveness
Cloud-based or subscription-based revenues are increasingly preferred because they lead to
more predictable recurring revenues. Salesforce pioneered and ruled SaaS until over a year
ago when Microsoft took over. Although Microsoft leads the overall enterprise SaaS space,
its significant international exposure could deter investors who are looking for SaaS
companies. Due to its long-held dominance in the SaaS space, Salesforce holds the
competitive edge over its peers.
In the current scenario in the IT sector, investors appetites could be inclined toward software
companies such as Salesforce that have limited international revenue exposure.
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Earlier in this series, we discussed how the expected appreciation of the US dollar (UUP)
could make Salesforce (CRM) an option among investors. The average life of the customer
of SaaS companies like Salesforce depends on the time the company has had customers
and the amount of churn.
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The equation above explains the relationship between average customer life and churn
rate. Salesforce pioneered the SaaS model and had a first mover advantage. Thus,
Salesforces average customers life would be longer than its peers and so would be its
profitability. This explains the strategic acquisitions of LinkedIn and NetSuite in the SaaS
space by Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL), respectively.
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The chart above shows the impact of upgrades and upselling on the profitability of
companies in the SaaS space. As a result, SaaS companies can speed up the time to profit
by upgrading and upselling current customers.
However, the company must adhere to low-cost purchases that are different from the new
customer acquisition process. This explains why SaaS companies like Salesforce are so
intent on customer relationship management.
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Salesforce has cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of ~$2.2 billion. Its total
debt is $1.8 billion. Salesforce doesnt have any short-term debt. The expansion of
1
Salesforces non-GAAP operating margin by 78 basis points in fiscal 2017 helped the
company record operating cash flow of $2.1 billionan increase of 29% YoY (year-over-
year).
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In the SaaS universe, Salesforce is still not making a profit and has the highest positive
cash flow among its peers. With each passing quarter, Salesforce has managed to improve
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its margins. Fiscal 4Q17 marked 11 straight quarters in which Salesforce expanded its non-
GAAP operating margins.
Salesforce constitutes ~2.4% of the Third Point LLC portfolio, which the hedge fund acquired
at an average price of $79.89 per share. Recently, it appears that activist investors and
hedge funds are competing to increase their stakes in the company.
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Prior to Third Point, Corvex Management, Jana Partners, and Sachem Head Capital were
the other hedge funds and activist investors that added Salesforce in their portfolios. They
bought 3.5 million, 3.2 million, and 2.1 million shares, respectively.
Recently, PE (private equity) and hedge funds are increasingly drawn to technology
companies. Their increased interest can be attributed to software companies transition
toward the cloud. As companies migrate toward the cloud, subscription and support revenues
make up a majority of their overall revenues, which is the case with Salesforce.
In late August 2016, PE firm Apollo Global Management announced the acquisition of
Rackspace Hosting for $4.3 billion. The tech industry formed the largest share of PE deals in
2016.
Activist investors
Activist investors strategies usually revolve around taking a stake in a company and then
devising ways to maximize shareholder returns. They usually exert considerable pressure on
companies either to change their capital structure or strategy as a prelude to spinning off or
selling to a PE firm.
Elliott Management, headed by Paul Singer, influenced Symantec to buy LifeLock to boost its
Consumer Security segment. Elliott Management also spurred the sale of Blue Coat Systems
to Symantec, thereby strengthening and expanding the latters Enterprise Security segment.
Elliott Management also had a considerable influence on the DellEMC (EMC) deal as well,
which is the biggest acquisition to date in the technology space.
In the past, weve seen that shareholder activism has played a dominant role in the breakup
of companies to unlock shareholder potential. Technology companies such as eBay (EBAY),
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and Symantec (SYMC) all finally succumbed to pressure and
announced their splits.
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What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 15 OF 20
According to a 2017 Credit Suisse report, In 2017, investors will continue to have a bias
towards organic high-growth SaaS vendors with strong cash flow generation prospects and
favourable unit economics. With unit economics, Credit Suisse refers to retention rates,
recurring revenue mix, recurring revenue gross margin, and efficient sales and marketing
spending.
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With each passing quarter, Salesforce has managed to expand its margins, indicating an
efficient sales and marketing spending strategy. Its investment in Salesforce Einstein, its AI
platform, also makes it stand out from its peers.
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Salesforces cash flow growth surpassed its revenue growth. Its operating cash flow grew
29%, while its revenues grew 26% in fiscal 2017. The companys cash flow achieved a
milestone in fiscal 2017 when it crossed the $2 billion threshold.
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App Cloud was the reason behind Salesforces placement in the Leaders quadrant in
hpaPaaS. Forrester Research also designated Salesforce App Cloud as the leader among its
peers in its March 2017 report.
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Salesforce App Cloud is the preferred choice after Azure and AWS
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App Cloud is an offshoot of CRMs Salesforce 1 platform. Launched in September 2015, App
Cloud now has more than 5.5 million apps and 2.3 million developers. It was designed
specifically for the enterprise crowd.
Commenting on App Cloud, IDC Research analyst Al Hilwa stated, With App Cloud,
Salesforce is integrating Heroku a bit more deeply with its force.com traditional model-driven
application platform.
1. infrastructure-as-a-service
2. platform-as-a-service
Moving averages and RSI (relative strength index) scores are among the most widely used
technical indicators. Well also compare Salesforces technical indicators with those of other
software companies.
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On May 15, 2017, Salesforce stock had risen ~17.4% in the trailing 12-month period. It had
risen ~7.8% and ~3.2% in the trailing one-month period and the trailing five-day period,
respectively. In comparison, Microsoft (MSFT), SAP (SAP), and Oracle (ORCL) generated
returns of approximately ~1.5%, -0.43%, and -0.59%, respectively, in the trailing five-day
period.
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MACD and RSI
On May 15, 2017, the last trading price for Salesforce stock was $83.71. The stock was
trading 1% below its 20-day moving average of $83.00, 2% below its 50-day moving average
of $83.00, and 7% below its 100-day moving average of $78.00.
A companys MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is the difference between its
short-term and long-term moving averages. Salesforces 14-day MACD of ~1.0 shows an
upward trading trend, as the figure is positive.
Salesforces 14-day RSI score is 89, which shows that the stock is neither overbought nor
oversold. An RSI score below 30 signifies that a stock is oversold, while an RSI score above
70 indicates that a stock is overbought.
Now, lets compare the companys value proposition with that of other companies in the US
software space. On May 15, 2017, and as the below chart shows, Microsoft (MSFT) was the
largest player by market capitalization in the global software space, and it was followed by
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Oracle (ORCL). IBM (IBM), SAP (SAP), and Salesforce are other prominent players in the
software space.
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Increased focus on cloud and SaaS adoption bodes well for Salesforce stock
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As shown in the chart above, Salesforces market cap was ~$2.9 billion at the end of trading
on May 15, 2017, which was much lower than that of its peers. A companys market cap is its
stock price multiplied by its number of shares outstanding.
Earlier in the series, we discussed expectations from Salesforces fiscal 1Q18 earnings.
Looking at the companys trend of meeting or exceeding analysts expectations, it is likely
that the company with its fiscal 1Q18 results could surprise its investors and shareholders. If
Salesforce continues this trend, market sentiment around the stock would further improve.
In the last three months, Salesforce stock rose ~9%. If we consider its performance in the
last six months and one year, it rose ~16.8% and ~17.0%, respectively.
An improved outlook for the company, as well as an increased focus on the cloud, could
provide a boost to Salesforces market cap and stock.
Correction: This article originally misconstrued the formula for market cap calculations.
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EV-to-EBITDA multiples are widely used in the valuation of companies across various
sectors. EV represents the market value of a companys equity and debt, minus cash and
cash equivalents. So, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio helps us determine whether a company is
undervalued or overvalued.
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7/29/2017 How Would NXPs Acquisition Benefit Qualcomm? - Market Realist
The chart above shows that during the trailing-12-month period, Apple and Microsoft were
among the top ten companies in the IT sector to spend the most on stock buybacks.
Investors who want exposure to Salesforce could consider investing in the SPDR S&P 500
ETF (SPY) (SPX). SPY has an ~29% exposure to application software. It invests ~0.23% of
its holdings in Salesforce.
In the final part of our series, well see what analysts are recommending for Salesforce.
Correction: This article originally included a wayward dollar sign next to Salesforces EV-to-
EBITDA multiple.
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7/29/2017 How Would NXPs Acquisition Benefit Qualcomm? - Market Realist
Salesforce are the prominent players in this space. Lets take a look at the select market-
centric views on Salesforce.
Among the 44 analyst recommendations on Salesforce stock, close to 91% of these analysts
made buy recommendations. Only one analyst made a sell recommendation, as we can
see in the chart below. The remainder issued hold recommendations. Analysts views on
Salesforce continue to be positive. Their views have not changed much in the last two or
three months.
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