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7/29/2017 How Would NXPs Acquisition Benefit Qualcomm?

- Market Realist

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 1 OF 11

How Would NXPs Acquisition Benefit


Qualcomm?
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

NXPs acquisition to boost Qualcomms chipset business


Qualcomm (QCOM) is the only fabless chip giant to make it onto IC Insights list of top ten
semiconductor companies. The companys licensing business has been facing turbulence,
with several legal and regulatory cases coming up all at once. However, things are improving
for its chipset business.

The company is preparing for its biggest acquisition yet of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) for
$38 billion excluding debt. This move will change Qualcomms business model from fabless
to IDM (integrated device manufacturer) and mark its entry into the highly competitive MCU
(microcontroller) market.

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How is the merger progressing?


Qualcomm is currently in the process of securing the necessary regulatory approvals from
various countries regulators for the NXP merger. So far, its secured the approval of US
regulators, and its filed for clearances in China, Russia, and the European Union.

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Qualcomm has also extended a tender offer to NXP shareholders to sell their shares to it by
May 31, 2017. On May 1, 2017, Qualcomm had validly tendered 14.9% of NXPs outstanding
common shares. The company has to validly tender 80% of NXPs outstanding shares to
complete the tender.

In 2H17, Qualcomm will raise new debt to the tune of $10 billion$12 billion to fund the
acquisition.

Qualcomms entry into the microcontroller space


This acquisition will not only mark Qualcomms entry in the MCU market, it will also make it a
leader in the space. Many analysts are concerned about the merger, as Qualcomm has
never manufactured nor sold an MCU.

However, IC Insights senior market research analyst, Rob Lineback, told EE Times that
Qualcomm would easily adjust to the MCU market because NXPs MCUs are based on ARM
architecture, and even Qualcomm uses ARM designs for its processors. Although MCUs and
processors are two separate businesses, ARM is the common ground for both companies.

Qualcomm to face intense competition in the MCU market


The competition is very close in the MCU space, with Renesas Electronics, Microchip
(MCHP), and Samsung (SSNLF) all vying for market share. Any new acquisitions by MCU
players could make it tough for Qualcomm to retain the top position in this market.

Next, lets see how the merger could impact the combined companys earnings.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 2 OF 11

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Qualcomms Merger with NXP: A Win-Win


Deal for Both Parties
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

What led to Qualcomm-NXP merger?


Qualcomm (QCOM) is acquiring NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), which could expand the
formers exposure beyond communications and into automotive and security solutions. The
acquisition could create the worlds third-largest semiconductor company after Intel (INTC)
and Samsung (SSNLF).

However, the acquisition could also pose an integration challenge to Qualcomm, as theres
little overlap of products, and the business models of both companies are different. So why is
Qualcomm keen on acquiring NXP?

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Why is Qualcomm acquiring NXP?


In Qualcomms business model, it earns 87% of its profits from QTL (Qualcomm Technology
Licensing) and only 13% from QCT (Qualcomm Code-Division Multiple Access Technology).

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In 2017, its key customer Apple (AAPL) and several countries regulators ganged up on its
licensing model.

Moreover, a slowdown in the Smartphone market has hit Qualcomms chipset revenue,
which accounts for more than 60% of its total revenue. The company has been searching for
alternative revenue sources for quite some time, but its growth in adjacent markets has been
slow due to strong competition from incumbents such as NVIDIA and Texas Instruments.

The acquisition of NXP could jump-start Qualcomms initiatives in the automotive, IoT
(Internet of Things), and digital networking spaces and increase its chipset business by 40%.
NXPs higher operating margin could also improve QCTs profit margins and help Qualcomm
to offset any falls in its QTL segment.

Why did NXP agree to be acquired?


On the other hand, NXP has been facing slowing revenue due to weakness in its SIS
(Secure Identification Solutions) business. The company has been avoiding businesses in
which its competitors are pricing irrationally. However, its automotive revenue has been
growing and is likely to continue to grow significantly once autonomous cars hit the road.

A merger with Qualcomm would give NXP brand recognition, scale, digital computing, and
wireless connectivity technologies. Qualcomm has a strong say in setting industry standards,
and its brand could help NXP to play a key role in setting standards for autonomous cars.
Moreover, NXP will gain access to Qualcomms research efforts, which could accelerate the
companys development of new products and make it competitive.

Combined company
Canaccord Genuity anticipates the NXP acquisition to increase Qualcomms non-GAAP
(generally accepted accounting principles) EPS (earnings per share) by ~15% in 2018. The
benefits of the acquisition are expected to offset any falls in Apples royalty payments.

Assuming Apple succeeds in reducing Qualcomms royalty fee by 40%, Canaccord


Genuitys expects Qualcomms and NXPs pro forma non-GAAP EPS estimates for 2018 to
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remain unchanged at $4.84 and $5.80.

Next, well see how the NXP merger could change QCTs earnings.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 3 OF 11

What to Expect from Qualcomms Chipset


Business in Fiscal 3Q17
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

Qualcomm benefits from shift in Smartphone trend


Qualcomm (QCOM) is acquiring NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) to boost its chipset business,
which is being hit by an overall slowdown in the Smartphone market. According to IDC
(International Data Corporation), worldwide Smartphone shipments rose 4.3% YoY (year-
over-year) in 1Q17.

The data showed a shift in the trend away from premium phones toward mid- and low-end
phones. While Samsung (SSNLF) and Apple (AAPL) reported flat growths, Chinese (FXI)
vendors Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo reported more than 20% YoY growths in 1Q17. As
Qualcomm is having trouble with Samsung and Apple, this shift in trend fared well for the
chip supplier.

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QCTs fiscal 2Q17 earnings


QCT (Qualcomm Code-Division Multiple Access Technology) revenue rose 10% YoY to $3.7
billion even though MSM (mobile station modem) shipments fell 5.3% YoY to 179 million
units due to a stronger product mix. The segments MSM shipments fell as Qualcomm lost
50% of Apples modem business to Intel (INTC).
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Despite this setback, the companys QCT revenue rose because it included the one-month
sales of its RF360 joint venture, which equates to ~$75 million. RF360 is Qualcomms
Singapore-based RFFE (radio frequency front-end) joint venture with TDK Corporation.

Moreover, Qualcomm witnessed strong demand for its Snapdragon processors from the
wearables, drone, connected car, and other IoT (Internet of Things) markets. All this
improved QCTs operating margin from 5% in fiscal 2Q16 to 13% in fiscal 2Q17.

Fiscal 3Q17 guidance


For fiscal 3Q17, Qualcomm expects to report revenue of $5.2 billion. The fiscal third quarter
is a strong one for QCT. Assuming QCT contributes 70% to Qualcomms overall revenue, its
expected to report fiscal 3Q17 revenue of $3.6 billion, a fall of 5% YoY.

The segments revenue is likely to fall as the company faces a supply shortage of its
Snapdragon 835 processor, which is being manufactured on Samsungs 10nm (nanometer)
node. The supply constraints are mainly due to the initial yields on the 10nm node being
lower and Samsungs using the node to manufacture its own Exynos processor and
Snapdragon 835 processor. Qualcomms chief financial officer, George Davis, expects these
supply issues to be resolved by fiscal 4Q17.

Qualcomm expects its MSM shipments to be between 180 million and 200 million units in
fiscal 3Q17, lower than the 201 million units it shipped in fiscal 3Q16 but close to the 179
million units it shipped in fiscal 2Q17. These shipments are likely to be lower as Chinese
OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) reduce the excess inventory that was created in
fiscal 2Q17.

However, things are likely to improve in fiscal 4Q17 and beyond as the Snapdragon 835
becomes available to more Smartphone manufacturers and the company accelerates its
efforts in the wearables, drone, connected car, IoT, personal computer, and data center
markets.

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Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 4 OF 11

Whats Driving Demand for Qualcomms


Snapdragon 835?
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

Snapdragon 835 demand exceeds supply


Qualcomm (QCOM) reported strong growth in the QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technology)
segment in fiscal 2Q17. One of the factors that drove the segments revenue was the launch
of the Snapdragon 835 SoC (system-on-chip), the companys first 10nm (nanometer) SoC.

The company stated that its witnessing strong demand for its Snapdragon 835 from several
handset makers who want to feature the SoC in their new premium-tier devices, including the
Samsung (SSNLF) Galaxy S8 and S8 Plus, the Sony (SNE) Xperia XZ Premium, and the
Xiaomi Mi 6.

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Snapdragon 835 goes beyond Smartphones


The demand for the 835 is going beyond Smartphones. Osterhout Design Groups AR
(augmented reality) smart glasses and Microsofts (MSFT) always-on cellular Windows 10
PCs (personal computer) are being powered by the 835.

What made Snapdragon 835 popular?


Qualcomms Snapdragon 835 processor is faster and more power-efficient than its predecessor 821,
as its built on Samsungs 10nm process. The smaller sizes of these chips have led to thinner phones.
Snapdragon 835 features Qualcomms X16 Gigabit LTE (long-term evolution) modem, the industrys
first modem that delivers one-gigabit-per-second download speeds on devices.

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Snapdragon 835 consumes lower power and gives Smartphone makers more space to use larger
batteries, improving battery life.
Snapdragon 835 features the Qualcomm Quick Charge 4.0, which the company claims is four times
faster than the conventional charging technology and 30% faster than its predecessor, the Quick
Charge 3.0. As the processor operates at lower power, it also generates less heat.

Qualcomm to benefit from early entry in gigabit LTE modem


More and more carriers across the globe are planning to launch gigabit LTE networks. This
implementation should make Qualcomms early entry into the gigabit LTE market a success.
The Samsung Galaxy S8 is supporting gigabit LTE in its most recent versions in North
America, China, and Japan. It will take Intel (INTC) at least one year to launch its Gigabit
LTE-modem XMM 7560. By that time, Qualcomm will likely have gained a strong market
share.

Upcoming Snapdragon 800 series


Qualcomm built its Snapdragon 835 chips on Samsungs 10nm LPE (low power early) node,
which has lower yields because its a shift to a smaller, more complex node. The chip
supplier may build its next SoC on Samsungs planned 10nm LPP (low power plus) node.

As the 10nm LPP node is just a performance-enhanced version of its predecessor, the 10nm
LPE, there may not be any yield issues. Wccftech and Tweaktown reported that Qualcomms
next SoC is likely to come in 2018 and be named Snapdragon 845. This name accidentally
appeared on Qualcomms official website.

Qualcomm has also launched products for upper-mid and mid-tier phones. Well look into this
next.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 5 OF 11

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Whats Driving the Adoption of


Qualcomms Snapdragon 600 Series?
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

Snapdragon 600 and 400 series


Qualcomm (QCOM) continues to dominate the premium mobile processor market with its
Snapdragon 800 series. However, the mobile demand trend is shifting toward mid- and low-
tier phones, which is visible in the increasing adoption of Qualcomms mid- and low-tier
Snapdragon 600 and 400 series by Chinese (MCHI) OEMs (original equipment
manufacturer).

On Qualcomms fiscal 2Q17 earnings call, its CEO, Steve Mollenkopf, stated that the
companys 600 series would be featured in more than 200 devices and designs, and its 400
series would be featured in more than 190 devices and designs.

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Snapdragon 630 and 660 platforms


In May 2017, Qualcomm launched two new upgrades to its upper-midrange and midrange
600 series: the Snapdragon 630 and 660 platforms, which are successors to the Snapdragon
626 and 653 platforms. The new chipsets are built on Samsungs (SSNLF) 14nm
(nanometer) FinFET (fin field-effect transistor) process and provide the capabilities of the
premium 800 series.

Snapdragon 660
Processing power: Snapdragon 660 SoC (system-on-chip) features four Kryo 260 central
processing units that deliver a 20% performance improvement. The 660 has a memory

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bandwidth of 29.9 Gbps (gigabits per second), nearly double that of its predecessor.

Machine learning: The SoC provides machine-learning capabilities to Smartphones through


the Hexagon 680 DSP (digital signal processor) with Hexagon Vector extensions. Its able to
perform tasks such as facial recognition, voice recognition, language detection, and the
filtering out of background noise.

Connectivity: The SoC features the X12 LTE (long-term evolution) modem, which was first
featured in the Snapdragon 820 in 2016. This modem delivers up to 600 Mbps (megabits per
second) of downstream and 150 Mbps of upstream connectivity. The Snapdragon 835
features a gigabit LTE modem.

Image processing: The SoC supports 4K through its Spectrum 160 ISP (image signal
processor), which can capture high-definition 4K videos at 30 FPS (frames per second) and
1080p videos at 120 FPS. Snapdragon 835 features the Spectra 180 ISP.

Charging: The SoC features Qualcomm Quick Charge 4.0, which the company claims can
charge a phone for five hours of usage in just five minutes. This feature is also available in
Snapdragon 835.

With this, Qualcomm is enhancing the performances of upper mid-range phones, bringing
them closer to premium handsets.

Qualcomm in the low-tier Smartphone market


In March 2017, Qualcomm announced 205 mobile platforms with 4G (fourth-generation) LTE
support targeted at entry-level feature phones. The company expects OEMs to launch their
devices featuring these platforms in 2Q17.

Qualcomm has entered into a JV (joint venture) with Chinas Datang Telecom and Jianguang
Asset Management to develop low-cost Smartphone chips worth $10. This joint venture will
likely give tough competition to Taiwans MediaTek and Chinas Spreadtrum
Communications, which cater to the low-tier Smartphone market.
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Qualcomm is going beyond Smartphones and into alternative markets. Well take a look at
this in the next article.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 6 OF 11

How Will Adjacent Markets Boost


Qualcomms Chipset Business?
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

Qualcomm in adjacent markets


Qualcomm (QCOM) is a leader in the Smartphone market because of its wireless
connectivity solutions, network infrastructure, and low-power, ARM-based Snapdragon
processors.

As we come closer to being a fully connected world, mobile technologies are being adopted
by more and more devices. Qualcomm is tapping into this opportunity to expand in the
wearables, automotive, IoT (Internet of Things), PC (personal computer), and data center
markets.

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Qualcomm has developed Snapdragon processors for the wearables and automotive
spaces. The company claims that its Snapdragon Wear processors are inside more than
80% of Android Smartwatches worldwide. QCOM witnessed strong demand from the
automotive, networking, and IoT markets in fiscal 2Q17, indicating that its products were
gaining traction.

Qualcomm versus Intel in the PC and data center spaces


Qualcomm has partnered with Microsoft (MSFT) to develop ARM-based Snapdragon
processors that power Windows 10 laptops and Centriq 2400 processors, which power
servers.

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Until now, Windows PCs were powered only by Intels (INTC) x86 chips. Now, Qualcomm will
compete with Intel even in the PC and data center processor markets. Qualcomms CEO,
Steve Mollenkopf, said on the companys fiscal 2Q17 earnings call that Snapdragon-powered
Windows 10 laptops would be launched by PC vendors in fiscal 4Q17.

Qualcomm is also in the process of completing its acquisition of automotive semiconductor


giant NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and it expects to complete this transaction by the end of
fiscal 2017.

Impact of NXPs acquisition on QCTs earnings


In fiscal 2016, NXP earned an operating margin of 26.6% on revenue of $9.5 billion on a non-
GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis. On the other hand, QCT (Qualcomm
Code-Division Multiple Access Technology) earned an operating margin of 12% on revenue
of $15.4 billion in fiscal 2016.

The integration of NXP could increase QCTs revenue by 60% to ~$25 billion and its
operating margin by ~20% in fiscal 2018.

Qualcomm is not only expanding its processor business but also its wireless connectivity
business by taking the lead in the 5G (fifth-generation) revolution. Next, well look at the
companys efforts in the 5G space.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 7 OF 11

How Does Qualcomm Plan to Serve the


Future-Connected World?
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

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Qualcomms efforts focused on the connected world
Qualcomm (QCOM) is proceeding with its acquisition of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) to add
microcontrollers to its portfolio and cater to the automotive and IoT (Internet of Things)
markets. Moreover, the company is expanding its Snapdragon processors beyond
Smartphones to other connected devices.

Qualcomm plans to focus the combined companys technology, sales channel, and scale
toward the larger growth opportunity of the connected world.

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On Qualcomms fiscal 2Q17 earnings call, its CEO, Steve Mollenkopf, talked about how the
company would leverage its connectivity, computing, and security solutions to meet the future
needs of the connected world. Below is a synopsis of his statements.

5G modem
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The 5G (fifth-generation) revolution will expand the mobile ecosystem beyond phones and
connect multiple devices simultaneously.

In late 2016, Qualcomm unveiled the industrys first 5G modem, Snapdragon X50. In
February 2017, the company enhanced this modem by adding support for the global 5G NR
(new radio) standard across the millimeter wave and sub-6 gigahertz frequency bands. It also
made the 5G modem compatible with earlier 2G (second-generation), 3G (third-generation),
4G (fourth-generation), and 4G LTE (long-term evolution) technologies.

Qualcomm is conducting 5G NR trials with several global infrastructure vendors and


operators, including AT&T (T) and Ericsson in the United States, Vodafone (VOD) and
Ericsson in Europe, ZTE and China Mobile in China, SKT and Ericsson in Korea, and Telstra
and Ericsson in Australia. With this, the chip supplier is looking to validate and commercialize
5G NR technology before 2020.

Mollenkopf expects the first 5G NR-backed commercial products and network to be launched
in 2019. Qualcomm has partnered with Softbank and Sprint (S) for this purpose.

Focus on RF content in 5G devices


The advent of 5G will likely make RF (radio frequency) more complex, as several devices will
have huge amounts of MIMO (multiple input multiple output) and multi-element arrays.
Qualcomm has formed an RF front-end joint venture with TDK Corporation to develop
advanced RF technologies that can be used in Smartphones, automotive, IoT, and other
adjacent devices.

These 5G efforts will likely take at least two years to start generating returns. In the
meantime, Qualcomm is expanding its reach and identifying emerging markets for its existing
technologies to boost growth. Well explore this initiative next.

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Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 8 OF 11

Qualcomm Sees Strong Growth


Opportunity in India
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

India: The next big Smartphone market


The Smartphone trend is shifting away from premium phones to mid- and low-tier phones.
Similarly, Smartphone shipment growth is slowing in other countries but rising in India
(INDA).

According to a research report by Morgan Stanley, Smartphone shipments to India are


expected to grow at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 23% to 192 million by 2018.
India will account for 30% of this global growth and 11% of global Smartphone shipments in
2018. Qualcomm (QCOM) has seen this trend and is looking to tap into this market.

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Qualcomm eyes India as its next growth market


Qualcomm Indias president, Larry Paulson, believes that India is the second-largest mobile
device market. In an interview with The Economic Times, Paulson explained that India has
some unique factors that make it ideal for 4G (fourth-generation) and IoT (Internet of Things)
growth:

India has a higher proportion of young people than many countries, and theres increasing awareness
of Smartphone and related services in the population.
Indian carriers such as Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone (VOD), and Idea Cellular are accelerating
their 4G network deployments.

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Local handset brands are active and popular in the mid- and low-range Smartphone space. However,
local players trail behind international players in the high-end market.
India has end-to-end hardware and software manufacturing capabilities that make it the supply base
for several IoT products.

Paulson supported his statements with data. He said that India is the largest data
consumption market, as 80% of Internet traffic is mobile, and this traffic is transmitted over
400 million Internet connections. He expects 3G (third-generation) and 4G mobile
connections in the country to reach over 540 million, with a unique mobile subscriber base
surpassing 1 billion, by 2020.

Low penetration makes India ideal for 4G


Morgan Stanleys research report shows that only 18% of Indias population, or 225 million
people, have Smartphones. Within this subscriber base, less than 1% of people have 4G
Smartphones. The consultancy company expects 75% of the 170 million Smartphone
shipments expected in 2018 to be 4G Smartphones. James Cathey, senior vice president of
Asia Pacific & India at Qualcomm, sees significant growth potential for 4G feature phones in
India.

Indias strong growth potential has attracted Apple (AAPL) and Chinese handset makers as
well. According to IDC (International Data Corporation), 51.4% of Smartphone shipments in
India in 1Q17 were from Chinese handset makers.

Next, lets look at Qualcomms strategy to tap the Indian market.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 9 OF 11

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Whats Qualcomms Strategy to Boost 4G


Adoption in India?
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

How does Qualcomm plan to tap the Indian market?


Low penetration and high data consumption have made India (INDA) the next big
Smartphone market. Qualcomm (QCOM) believes that active interest in Indian carriers and
local handset makers could drive 4G (fourth-generation) penetration in the country.

The company is looking to invest in customer engineering and marketing to bring cost-
efficient technology to a larger audience and boost 4G adoption in the country.

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4G infrastructure
Qualcomms senior vice president of Asia Pacific & India, James Cathey, told The Economic
Times that the company is in talks with Indian carriers for network planning and optimization.

Cathey said, We will also continue to put infrastructure RF (radio frequency) design
center, audio, camera and interoperability testing that global and local brands are able to
use.

4G devices
Cathey stated that Qualcomm is also developing products and designs for phones and IoT
(Internet of Things) devices to make local handset brands competitive. Its set up research
labs and is making venture capital investments to develop products in India.

Qualcomms 205 mobile platform, which brings 4G capabilities to entry-level phones, was
developed by its engineering team in India. The company is working with Indian players such
as Micromax, Reliance Jio, and several Chinese OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) to
launch 4G VoLTE (voice over long-term evolution) feature phones powered by the 205
platform.

Qualcomm has entered into a 3G (third-generation) and 4G patent licensing deal with
Smartron India. The two will also collaborate on early access to new technology and
advancements for RF, camera testing, and tuning.

Even Apple (AAPL) is tapping the Indian market by establishing a design and development
center for its iOS in Bangalore, India.

How does Qualcomm plan to create demand for high-end phones?


In an interview with The Economic Times, Qualcomms regional head of South-East Asia,
Mantosh Malhotra, stated that the company would bring more features onto devices at
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affordable prices to drive the adoption of 4G technology. Once consumers get used to the 4G
experience and its advanced features, they may want to upgrade to better-quality phones,
driving demand for higher-end devices.

However, Qualcomms investors werent too impressed by these growth efforts as licensing
disputes overshadowed the companys future growth potential. Next, lets look at the
companys stock performance.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 10 OF 11

Technical Indicators: Are Qualcomm


Investors Bullish or Bearish?
By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT

Qualcomms stock price movement


Qualcomm (QCOM) stock fell 20% between January and April 2017 after rising more than
42% in 2016. The fall came as regulatory and legal hurdles, especially from Apple (AAPL),
started affecting its earnings. The company has increased its dividend by 7.5%, but this
doesnt seem to have raised optimism among investors.

However, there was increased optimism among investors in May 2017 after the company
launched its Snapdragon 600 series and its Snapdragon 835 witnessed strong demand. Lets
see what a technical analysis says about investors sentiments toward Qualcomm.

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50-day and 100-day moving averages


After falling more than 20% in the first four months of 2017, Qualcomms stock price has
risen over the past few days to reach $56. Its currently trading at par with its 50-day moving
average of $56 but below its 100-day moving average of $57.

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On the other hand, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) is trading at $107.27, above its 50-day
and 100-day moving averages of $105 and $102, respectively. Broadcom (AVGO) is trading
at $237.66, well above its 50-day moving average of $222 and its 100-day moving average of
$210.

RSI
The RSI (relative strength index) is a technical indicator that measures the intensity of
investors sentiments on a stock. The RSI is measured on a scale of zero to 100, with less
than 30 indicating that a stock has been oversold and more than 70 indicating that a stock
has been overbought.

On May 18, 2017, Qualcomms 14-day RSI was 69. Over the past week, the stocks RSI has
fallen from over 70 to under 70. The stocks price rose 2.6% between May 11 and 18, 2017.
On May 18, NXPIs RSI was 71, and Broadcoms RSI was 70. Overall, theres strong
optimism in the communications semiconductor market.

A stocks being overbought indicates a potential downturn. Hence, analysts have consensus
hold recommendations for QCOM and NXP. Even though Broadcom has been overbought
and is trading well above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, analysts are optimistic
about the stock and have given it a strong consensus buy recommendation.

Next, well see whether QCOMs stock price justifies its fundamental valuation.

Qualcomms 4 Growth Pillars: NXP, Snapdragon, 5G, and India PART 11 OF 11

What Do Qualcomms Price Ratios Say


about Its Valuation?
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By Paige Tanner| May 19, 2017 11:48 am EDT


Qualcomm trades near a 52-week low
Qualcomms (QCOM) stock price isnt sensitive to the markets movements. Even aggressive
purchases by investors brought just a 3.8% rise in the stocks price in ten days. Qualcomm is
currently trading at $56, close to its 52-week low of $50.84. The stock has a 52-week high of
$71.62.

On the other hand, Broadcoms (AVGO) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) stocks are trading
at $237.66 and $107.27, near their 52-week highs. Lets look at these companies stock
prices and see whether their prices justify their earnings.

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Price-to-sales
A companys PS (price-to-sales) multiple tells us what investors are willing to pay for every
dollar of its sales. Qualcomm had a PS multiple of 3.57x on May 18, 2017. This metric was
lower than Broadcoms and NXPs PS multiples of 6.11x and 3.91x, respectively.

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Price-to-EBITDA
A companys EBIDTA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization)
reflects the outcome of its operating decisions. It removes the effect of any financial
decisions in the form of interest paid on debt, government decisions in the form of tax rates,
and accounting decisions in the form of treating non-cash items like depreciation and
amortization.

Qualcomms price-to-EBITDA multiple stood at 10.08x on May 18, 2017. This metric was
much higher than NXPs 10.53x but lower than Broadcoms 20.70x.

Price-to-FCF
A companys price-to-FCF (free cash flow) multiple tells us what investors are willing to pay
for every dollar of its free cash flow. Free cash flow is the cash available to the company after
we remove its capital expenditure from the equation. Its the free cash that the company may
either return to its shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks or reinvest in its
business for future growth opportunities.

Qualcomm has reduced its share buybacks. Its looking to reinvest in its business in the form
of its acquisition of NXP Semiconductors.

Qualcomms price-to-FCF multiple stood at 33.83x on May 18, 2017. This metric was higher
than NXPs 18.68x but lower than Broadcoms 41.06x. The high multiple indicates that the
companys future FCFs are likely to fall.

Overall, investors are slightly bearish about Qualcomms earnings compared to Broadcoms.
However, the stock should have long-term growth potential when its regulatory and legal
headwinds clear.

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How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17


How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 1 OF 8

Did Cisco Beat Analysts Estimates in


Fiscal 3Q17?
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Revenue fell 1% YoY


On May 17, 2017, Cisco Systems (CSCO) announced its fiscal 3Q17 results. It reported
revenue of $11.9 billion, a fall of 1% YoY (year-over-year) with EPS (earnings per share) of
$0.60, a rise of 5% YoY. While its product revenue was flat YoY, its service revenue fell 2% in
fiscal 3Q17. Analysts had expected EPS of $0.58 and revenue of $11.9 billion in the quarter.

Over 31% of total revenue was recurring in nature compared to 29% of revenue in fiscal
3Q16. Revenue was driven by a 9% YoY rise in its Security segment and a 13% YoY rise in
its Wireless segment in fiscal 3Q17. Revenues in its Collaboration, Routing, and Data Center
businesses fell 4%, 2%, and 5%, respectively, in fiscal 3Q17. Revenue from its Service
Provider Video segment fell 30%, whereas revenue from its Switching segment rose 2% in
fiscal 3Q17.

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Other highlights
On a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, Ciscos net income was $2.5
billion with EPS of $0.50 in fiscal 3Q17.

Ciscos GAAP gross margin and product margin stood at 63% and 61.7%, respectively, in
the quarter. Its GAAP operating expenses fell 8% YoY to $4.3 billion. Ciscos cash flow from
operations was $3.4 billion in fiscal 3Q17, a rise of 10% YoY compared to $3.1 billion in fiscal
3Q16.

Cisco stock fell over 7% on May 18 to close at $31.38 due in part to weak guidance and the
companys announcement of 1,100 job cuts. Cisco expects revenue between $11.9 billion
and $12.1 billion in fiscal 4Q17, a fall of 4%6% YoY. In comparison, analysts expected Cisco
to post revenue of $12.5 billion in fiscal 4Q17.

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Cisco is a market leader in the networking space. It has a market cap of $169 billion. Its main
competitors include Dell Technologies (DVMT), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and Europes
(EFA) Ericsson (ERIC). These companies have market caps of $13.5 billion, $11.4 billion,
and $22 billion, respectively.

How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 2 OF 8

How Ciscos Security Segment Performed


in Fiscal 3Q17
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Revenue growth of 9% YoY


In fiscal 3Q17, Cisco (CSCO) saw a significant YoY (year-over-year) revenue growth of 9% in
its Network Security Business segment. The segments revenue growth was driven by strong
performances from its unified threat management as well as its advanced threat and web
security businesses, which rose 50% and 30% YoY (year-over-year), respectively, in fiscal
3Q17.

Prior to fiscal 3Q17, Cisco saw double-digit growth for five consecutive quarters. Its deferred
revenue rose 39% YoY, driven by Ciscos ongoing shift from hardware-based to software-
based and subscription-based services. Its revenue rose from $483 million in fiscal 3Q16 to
$527 million in fiscal 3Q17. In the nine months ended April 29, 2017, revenue rose 12% YoY
to $1.6 billion.

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Ciscos CEO, Charles Robbins, said, Deferred revenue grew 39%, demonstrating the value
of our solutions and ongoing delivery of innovation. Services was down 2%. Normalized for
the extra week, it grew 4%. Were continuing to focus on renewals and attach rates.

Cisco dominates the worldwide security appliance market


According to market research firm IDC, tech (QQQ) heavyweight Cisco had a 13.7% share in
the worldwide security appliance market at the end of 4Q16. The other top players in this
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market include Check Point (CHKP), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Fortinet (FTNT), and
Huawei with shares of 12.3%, 11.1%, 9.5% and 4.7%, respectively.

How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 3 OF 8

What Affected Ciscos Collaboration


Revenue in Fiscal 3Q17?
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Revenue fell 4% YoY


Technology (QQQ) company Cisco Systems (CSCO) Collaboration business saw a 4%
revenue fall on a YoY (year-over-year) basis in fiscal 3Q17. Revenue in this segment fell
from $1,064 million in fiscal 3Q16 to $1,022 million in fiscal 3Q17.

Ciscos Collaboration business helps customers work together to achieve a common


business purpose. Work can be synchronous, which means customers are able to work
together in real time via online meetings, instant messaging, or video conferencing with tools
such as Skype (MSFT).

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Cisco leads the collaboration market with a share of 15%


In January 2017, Cisco announced the first all-in-one cloud-based collaboration and meeting
room service known as the Cisco Spark Board. The Cisco Spark Board has several features
including screen sharing, video conferencing, and interactive whiteboarding. The service has
brought over 700 customers on board since its launch.

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Cisco acquired MindMeld in fiscal 3Q17, which will enhance the collaboration experience
through artificial intelligence (or AI) and machine learning. Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins stated,
As chat and voice quickly become the interfaces of choice, MindMelds AI technology will
enable Cisco to deliver unique experiences throughout its portfolio. This acquisition will
power new conversational interfaces for Ciscos collaboration products, revolutionizing how
users will interact with our technology while increasing ease-of-use and enabling new
capabilities.

According to a research report from Synergy Research Group, Cisco leads the Collaboration
market with a share of 15% at the end of 4Q16. The other players in this market include
Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM) with market shares of 12% and 4%, respectively.

How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 4 OF 8

Ciscos Routing Business Revenue


Continued to Fall in Fiscal 3Q17
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Revenue fell 2% YoY


Cisco Systems (CSCO) Routing segment saw a revenue fall of 2% YoY (year-over-year) in
fiscal 3Q17. Revenue in this segment fell from $2.07 billion in fiscal 3Q16 to $2.03 billion in
fiscal 3Q17. Cisco stated that although its Routing segments revenue fell in the quarter, it
saw a rise in orders. Routing is Ciscos third-largest business segment in terms of revenue
after its Switching and Service business segments.

Last year, Cisco stated that it was well-positioned to drive the transition to software-defined
wide area networking (or WAN) with its IWAN (Intelligent WAN) portfolio, which would give it

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opportunities in the routing space. According to Cisco, it was seeing continued strength in its
web-scale customers, where its core development continued.

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Cisco has a share of 42.2% in 4Q16


According to IDC, Cisco had a market share of 42.2% at the end of 4Q16, down from 45% in
4Q15. The other major players in this space include Juniper (JNPR) and Chinas (FXI)

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Huawei with market shares of 16.9% and 18.8%, respectively. While revenue for Cisco fell
4.8% YoY in 4Q16, Junipers and Huaweis revenue rose 6.5% and 16.2% YoY in 4Q16.

The global routing market is projected to be a $14 billion market, rising at a CAGR
(compound annual growth rate) of 1%. In the routing space, NFV (network functions
virtualization) and network management orchestration are projected to rise at a CAGR of
79.0% over the next three years.

How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 5 OF 8

What Impacted Ciscos Switching Revenue


in Fiscal 3Q17?
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Revenue rose 2% YoY


US-based (SPY) Cisco Systems (CSCO) Switching segment saw a revenue rise of 2% YoY
(year-over-year) in fiscal 3Q17. Revenue in this segment rose from $3.42 billion in fiscal
3Q16 to $3.49 billion in fiscal 3Q17.

According to Cisco, this 2% rise was driven by solid growth in data center switching, driven
by ongoing strength in the ACI portfolio which was up 42%. Campus business, which
accounts for over 65% of Ciscos Switching segments revenue, also rose marginally in fiscal
3Q17.

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In the first nine months of fiscal 2017, Ciscos Switching segments revenue has fallen 5%
YoY to $10.5 billion. Switching is Ciscos largest business segment and accounts for
approximately 30% of total revenue.

Switches contain ports to connect different network segments. Switches are like hubs,
networking devices that connect multiple devices to networks using cables, but they perform
better. Switching is a networking technology used in campuses, branch offices, and data
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centers. Switches are used within buildings in local-area networks and across great
distances in wide-area networks.

Cisco has a 55.6% share in the switching market


Cisco had a market share of 55.6% in the global switching market at the end of 4Q16.
Although Cisco has the majority share in this segment, it competes with tech heavyweights
such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Juniper (JNPR), and Huawei, who have market
shares of 5%, 17%, and 7%, respectively. While Ciscos share has fallen from 59.1% in
4Q15, Huaweis share has increased from 4.4% in 4Q15.

How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 6 OF 8

How Ciscos Wireless Segment Performed


in Fiscal 3Q17
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Revenues rose 13% YoY


Cisco Systems (CSCO) Wireless segments revenue rose 13% YoY (year-over-year) in fiscal
3Q17. Revenue in this segment rose from $622 million in fiscal 3Q16 to $703 million in fiscal
3Q17, driven by the companys Meraki acquisition and the ramp up of its 11 AC Wave 2
portfolio.

According to Wi-Fi Alliance, the Wave 2 can achieve higher gigabit speeds. It also helps in
connecting more devices and is better in terms of bandwidth, performance, and flexibility. A
wireless local area network (or LAN) uses radio waves to connect devices such as laptops
and smartphones to the Internet.

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CEO Chuck Robbins stated, We continue to innovate with the launch in the quarter of new
wireless networking solutions, including a new Wave 2 access point and a wireless
controller.

The companys Wireless segment reported the highest growth for Cisco in fiscal 3Q17. In
the nine months of fiscal 2017, revenues rose 5% YoY to almost $2 billion. This
segment accounts for 5.5% of the companys total revenue.
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Cisco leads the WLAN market as well
IDCs latest report on the global WLAN (wireless local area network) segment states that
Cisco continued to lead the market with a share of 43.6% at the end of 4Q16 compared to
45% in 4Q15. The global WLAN market rose 7.2% YoY in 2016.

Ubiquitis and Huaweis revenues rose significantly YoY in 4Q16 by 97% and 55.3%,
respectively. Ubiquiti accounted for 5.2% of the overall market in 4Q16, up from 2.7% in
4Q15. Huawei accounted for 6.2% of the market in 4Q16 as compared to 4.1% in 4Q15.

HPE (HPE) and Brocade (BRCD) are the other major players with market shares of 13.5%
and 5.1% at the end of 4Q16, respectively.

How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 7 OF 8

How Has Cisco Increased Shareholder


Value?
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Share repurchases and dividend yield


In fiscal 3Q17, Cisco Systems (CSCO) returned $2.0 billion to its shareholders. This amount
included $506 million in share repurchases and $1.5 billion in dividends. In fiscal 3Q17, the
companys operating cash flow rose 10% YoY (year-over-year) and stood at $3.4 billion with
total cash, cash equivalents, and investments of $68 billion.

In fiscal 2017, Cisco returned $6.6 billion to its shareholders through share buybacks and
dividends, which accounted for 70% of its total free cash flow. Cisco had earlier announced
an authorization for an increase of $15 billion to its share repurchase program.

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Dividend yield
Ciscos dividends rose from $0.19 in fiscal 3Q14 to $0.21 in fiscal 3Q15, $0.26 in fiscal 3Q16,
and $0.29 in fiscal 3Q17. Cisco increased its dividend yield 10.5% YoY in fiscal 2Q15, 24%
YoY in fiscal 2Q16, and 11.5% YoY in fiscal 2Q17. The total rise was 53% over the last three
years.

Cisco has a dividend yield of 3.5%, while its technology peers (QQQ) IBM (IBM), Hewlett
Packard Enterprise (HPE), and NetApp (NTAP) have dividend yields of 3.9%, 1.4%, and 3%,
respectively.

Ciscos chief financial officer, Kelly Kramer, said, Q3 was a solid quarter and we executed
well. Were focused on driving operational efficiencies and profitability, enabling us to make
the strategic investments to drive long term shareholder value.

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How Cisco Fared in Fiscal 3Q17 PART 8 OF 8

How Cisco Is Trading Compared to Moving


Averages in May 2017
By Adam Rogers| May 19, 2017 11:47 am EDT

Shareholder returns and stock trends


Cisco Systems (CSCO) has generated investor returns of 17.4% in the trailing-12-
month period and -4% in the trailing-one-month period. In comparison, it generated 15.2% in
2016 and 3.8% YTD (year-to-date). The companys share price has fallen 6.7% in the
trailing-five-day period.

Europes (EFA) Nokia (NOK), Ericsson (ERIC), and Juniper Networks (JNPR), Ciscos peers
in the communications equipment space, posted returns of -28.0%, -36.0%, and 4.0%,
respectively, in 2016.

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Moving averages
On May 18, 2017, Cisco closed the trading day at $31.38. Based on this figure, heres how
the stock fared in terms of its moving averages:

3.9% below its 100-day moving average of $32.65


6.7% below its 50-day moving average of $33.62
7% below its 20-day moving average of $33.73
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MACD and RSI
A stocks MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is the difference between its
short-term and long-term moving averages. Ciscos 14-day MACD is 0.12. This positive
figure indicates an upward trading trend.

The companys 14-day RSI (relative strength index) is 25, which shows that the stock is
oversold. Usually, if an RSI is above 70, it indicates that a stock is overbought. An RSI below
30 suggests that a stock is oversold.

Analyst recommendations
Of the 33 analysts covering Cisco stock, 20 have issued buy recommendations, and 13
have issued hold recommendations.

The consensus analyst stock price target for the company is $35.50 with a median target
estimate of $36. This means Cisco is trading at a discount of 14.7% to its median target
price.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-


Time High?
What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 1 OF 20

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an


All-Time High?
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

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Salesforce stock reached an all-time high in May 2017
May 2017 proved to be a rewarding month for Salesforce (CRM) investors. After shedding
close to 10% of its market value in 2016, which it gained the year before, Salesforce started
2017 on a positive note, with minor ups and downs.

Salesforce stock continued its upward trajectory and on May 12, 2017, it reached its all-time
high of $88.04. For a detailed account, please read What Could Boost Salesforce to an All-
Time High in 2017?

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Piper Jaffrays strong belief in Salesforce provided a stimulus


The surge in Salesforce stock could be attributed to Alex Zukin, a senior research analyst
with Piper Jaffray, naming it as the most attractive stock in its universe.
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1
Salesforce is scheduled to report its fiscal 1Q18 earnings on May 18, 2017. For fiscal
1Q18, analysts from Estimize, a financial estimate platform, expect Salesforce to post
2
revenues and non-GAAP EPS (earnings per share) of ~$2.4 billion and $0.26, respectively.

According to StreetInsider.com, Zukin has a bullish stance on Salesforce and expects fiscal
1Q18 to be a strong quarter for both enterprise and commercial across multiple verticals and
geographies.

Zukin reiterated his overweight rating on Salesforce stock with a price target of $100 that
remains unchanged, stating, We continue to believe that the company remains well
positioned for the year.

Later in this series, well look at the factors that could contribute to Salesforces success in
2017.

1. fiscal quarter ended April 2017

2. generally accepted accounting principles

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 2 OF 20

Chart in Focus: Salesforces Revenue


Growth in 2017
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Trend of meeting or beating analysts expectations

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Previously in this series, we discussed the factors that led Salesforce stock to reach its all-
time high last week. We also discussed analysts expectations from the soon-to-be-
announced Salesforces (CRM) fiscal 1Q18 earnings.

1
In the past seven years, including its fiscal 4Q17 results, the company has met or exceeded
analysts expectations with each passing quarter. In our view, we believe that Salesforces
fiscal 1Q18 earnings could continue this trend.

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Increased cloud adoption to enhance Salesforces prospects


In 2016, the cloud market grew 25% on an annualized basis to reach $148 billion. Amazon
(AMZN) leads the cloud market, followed by Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), and Google
(GOOG). Together, they dominate more than half of the cloud space.

2
Increased cloud adoption and the dominance of SaaS in the cloud space has benefited
Salesforce in particular, which derives the majority of its revenues from subscription and
support revenues. Although it lost its leadership to Microsoft in the SaaS space, Salesforce is
3
a leader in the CRM space.

Salesforces double-digit revenue growth with each passing quarter has enabled it to raise its
guidance. It expects revenues and EPS (earnings per share) of $2.34 billion$2.35 billion
and $0.25$0.26, respectively, in fiscal 1Q18. Salesforce aims to record $20 billion in
revenues by fiscal 20212022.

1. quarter ended January 31, 2017

2. software-as-a-service

3. customer relationship management

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 3 OF 20

Why Salesforce Launched a New $100


Million Venture Fund
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By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforce launches a new $100 million venture capital fund


Earlier in this series, we looked at the factors that led to a surge in Salesforce stock, which
reached an all-time high of $88.04. Last week, Salesforce.com (CRM) announced the launch
of a new $100 million venture capital fund. Salesforce launched this fund with the aim of
developing AI-based (artificial intelligence) applications on its platform.

This is the fourth fund from Salesforce Ventures, a venture capital arm of Salesforce.
Salesforce Ventures, established in 2009, invests in the next generation of enterprise
technology. Through its four funds, each armed with a different objective, Salesforce has
raised $350 million.

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Salesforce Ventures was one of the most active CVCs in 2016


The chart above shows the most active CVCs in 2016. Intel Capital (INTC) and Google
Ventures (GOOG) were the most active CVC (corporate venture capital) investors in 2016.
Salesforce Ventures and Comcast Ventures held third and fourth place, respectively.
Qualcomm Ventures (QCOM), Cisco Investments (CSCO), GE Ventures, and Bloomberg
Beta were the other players that held positions in the top eight CVC players.

The latest fund launch shows Salesforce increasing its inclination toward AI, which is
expected to drive $2 trillion in spending during the next computing cycle. In 2016, the
company launched Salesforce Einstein, an AI platform that it describes as the worlds first
comprehensive artificial intelligence platform for CRM. Einstein features are available across
all of the companys cloud offerings.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 4 OF 20

Why Salesforce Einstein Could Be CRMs


Highlight in 2017
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

AI appears to be core focus of Salesforce


Earlier in this series, we discussed Salesforces (CRM) recently launched $100 million VC
fund with a focus on AI. Since 2009, Salesforce has been a keen investor in enterprise cloud
startups as well as new technologies that align closely with the companys operations.

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AI has recently caught the interest of Salesforce, and the company has been busy
embedding AI features into its cloud offerings. By launching its new VC fund, aimed at AI,
Salesforce has taken another step to push itself in the AI space. This discussion is
incomplete without Salesforce Einstein, the companys AI platform.

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Partnership with IBM


To further enhance the reach and penetration of Einstein, Salesforce partnered with IBM
(IBM). Together, they plan to offer integrated AI services through Watson and Einstein.
Watson is IBMs cognitive computing platform.

Sharing her thoughts on partnering with Salesforce, Ginni Rometty, the chairman,
president, and chief executive officer of IBM, said, Within a few years, every major decision
personal or businesswill be made with the help of AI and cognitive technologies.

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Through this partnership, Salesforce is aiming to empower its customers, ensure customer
stickiness, and retain its hold in the CRM space. It also plans to expand in AI, a disruptive
technology that is expected to pair with ML (machine learning) to drive the expected $2
trillion in spending during the next new computing cycle.

Salesforce Einstein empowers CRMs cloud offerings


Salesforce Einstein has brought AI capabilities such as machine learning, deep learning, and
natural language processing to its five cloudsSales Cloud, Service Cloud, Marketing and
Analytics Cloud, Community Cloud, and Commerce Cloud. Looking at the way Salesforce is
investing in the AI space, we could soon be seeing new Einstein features in every Salesforce
Cloud.

Just like the overall cloud space, Salesforce faces fierce competition in the AI space. Morgan
Stanley (MS) considers Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and IBM as early but
underappreciated leaders in the AI space, with market shares between 20%30%.

Only time will tell if Salesforces initiatives and investments in AI and Einstein could bring
solid footing to the cloud space. Looking at the companys focus on AI, Einstein could
dominate Salesforces fiscal 1Q18 earnings.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 5 OF 20

A Look at Salesforce Sales Clouds Growth


in Fiscal 1Q18
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Sales Cloud contributes maximum toward overall revenues

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Earlier in this series, we discussed the factors that could provide some stimulus to Salesforce
stock as well as its newly launched VC fund, which is focused on AI.

Lets look into Salesforces (CRM) Sales Cloud offering, which is the largest contributor to the
companys subscription revenues. With revenues of ~$3.0 billion, CRMs Sales Cloud
contributed ~40% of Salesforces total revenues in 2017. Salesforce Sales Cloud could
report double-digit growth in fiscal 1Q18.

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The companys first $3 billion cloud


In April 2017, Salesforce launched its latest version of Sales CloudEinstein High-Velocity
Sales Cloudto make AI (artificial intelligence) more accessible.

Salesforce has also taken a strategic step to improve its Sales Cloud and other cloud
offerings. It announced the opening of the second data center in Japan (EWJ) in April 2017,
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which would expand and enhance its Intelligent Customer Success Platform. Its platform
comprises Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, App Cloud, Community Cloud, and Analytics Cloud.

Salesforce developed its Sales Cloud offering to enable companies to access stock data,
observe leads and progress, predict opportunities, and develop understanding through
relationship intelligence. In fiscal 2017, Sales Cloud grew 13% to become the first $3 billion
cloud.

Later in the series, well discuss how Microsoft (MSFT) is posing a threat to Salesforces
Sales Cloud.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 6 OF 20

Why Salesforce Is Intent on Enhancing Its


Offerings
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Sales Clouds standing in the market


Earlier in this series, we discussed Salesforces (CRM) Sales Cloud growth as well as
its contribution to the companys overall revenues. Salesforce is increasingly taking initiatives
to enhance synergies among its offeringsSales Cloud, Service Cloud, Marketing Cloud,
App Cloud, Commerce Cloud, and Wave Analytics.

Salesforces addition of Salesforce Einsteins features to its cloud offerings is one such step.
This move is expected to boost its Sales Cloud and give Salesforce an edge over its peers in
1
the CRM space.

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Alex Zukin, a senior research analyst with Piper Jaffray, believes that Service Cloud
continues to lead the pack, as the company is pursuing to enhance its reach with Sales
Cloud customers.

In late 2016, Salesforce was named a Leader for SFA (sales force automation) in Gartners
Magic Quadrant for the tenth straight year. Salesforces vision and its execution of its Sales
Cloud Lightning offering enabled the company to retain this position.

Salesforce faces threats in rapidly growing CRM space

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Salesforce has to safeguard its top position in CRM space, as it has already lost its
leadership position in the SaaS space to Microsoft. Later in this series, well discuss how
Microsofts (MSFT) largest acquisition to dateLinkedIncould be instrumental in
dethroning Salesforce in the CRM space.

From being a $23.2 billion market in 2014, Gartner expects CRM to become a $36.5 billion
market this year. Salesforce leads the CRM space with a market share of 19.7%, followed by
SAP (SAP), which has a 10.2% market share. Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft, and Adobe (ADBE)
rounded out the top five players.

Among them, Adobes revenues rose 26.9%, while Salesforce and Microsoft reported
revenue rises of 21.1% and 20%, respectively.

1. customer relationship management

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 7 OF 20

How Growth in CRM Could Benefit


Salesforce
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforce leads CRM space


So far in this series, weve discussed the factors and competition impacting Salesforces
(CRM) prospects. Salesforces reliance on subscriptions for revenue growth has worked in
the companys favor, as the cloud is rapidly making inroads and being adopted by enterprises
and organizations. However, this growth in the cloud has attracted other players, and
Salesforce has been impacted.
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Microsoft, known for its aggressive stance in pursuing growth in the cloud space, passed
Salesforces position and is now a leader of the overall enterprise SaaS space. Although it
lost its position in the SaaS space, Salesforce still is a leader in the CRM (customer
relationship management) space.

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According to DestinationCRM, Salesforce stood as the winner for the second straight year
among its peersAdobe, Oracle, Salesforce, IBM (IBM), and Teradata (TDC). Marketo was
also listed as a company to watch for under Vista Equity Partners ownership in 2016.

Factors that could drive growth in CRM


The advent and increased adoption of the cloud and mobile technology enhance the need for
tools to access information. As a result, CRM is viewed as a real-time requirement.
Moreover, social media is rapidly changing the dynamics of the market from product
development to marketing to sales channels.

Increasing social media usage has put the pressure on companies to not only adopt new
customer engagement strategies but also to refresh them on a regular basis. The exponential
growth in data, including customer data, increases the pressure on companies.

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Salesforce, being a leader in the CRM space, is expected to be at the forefront of current
technology and customer perceptions encompassing the CRM space. This is a space where
Microsoft, a strong competitor to Salesforce, is rapidly devising ways to strengthen its
presence.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 8 OF 20

Could Microsoft Pose a Threat to


Salesforce?
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Microsoft works to thwart Salesforces dominance in CRM space


Earlier in this series, we learned how Salesforces (CRM) Sales Cloud is crucial to its growth,
especially when competition is at its peak in the CRM space. As in the SaaS space,
Salesforce could lose its lead to Microsoft (MSFT) in the CRM space.

Following in the footsteps of its peer Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft chose the price cut strategy
to thwart Salesforces dominance in the CRM space.

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In an April 2017 Microsoft blog post, Scott Guthrie, the tech giants executive vice president
of the Cloud and Enterprise Group, announced the availability of LinkedIn Sales Navigator
and Dynamics 365 for Sales at about half the cost of competitive solutions in the market,
available in July.

LinkedIn boosts Microsofts Dynamics 365 prospects


LinkedIn is Microsofts largest acquisition to date. Its integration with Microsofts offerings,
especially Dynamics 365, would benefit the companys offerings, as the above chart shows.
LinkedIn enabled Microsoft to redefine social sales through the fusion of Sales Navigator and
Dynamics 365.

LinkedIn gave Microsoft access to large data sets, which are essential to the development of
AI (artificial intelligence). Gartner expects global IT spending to grow 1.4% to $3.5 trillion in

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2017 on the back of the confluence of cloud computing with emerging digital technologies
like AI and blockchain.

Microsofts Dynamics 365 boasts various AI features that integrate with ERP (enterprise
resource planning), CRM, and supply chain software. Morgan Stanley (MS) views data as the
holy grail of AI.

Citing a field survey conducted by Jefferies Group, in late 2016, the Wall Street Journal
reported that Microsoft Dynamics 365 was priced lower than Salesforces comparable
offering. Salesforce and Microsoft cater to a price-sensitive market, and Microsoft Dynamics
365 has the edge over Salesforce.

Since Microsoft trails Salesforce in market share by a wide margin (18+% for CRM versus
<2% for MSFT), Microsoft is pursuing a strategy to make further share gains by
discounting/bundling.

Correction: This was the original text replaced by the last sentence. By resorting to price
cuts, Microsoft is aiming for the top position in the price-sensitive CRM space.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 9 OF 20

Why Salesforces Revenue Dominance in


the Americas Is Good News
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

The US is the largest market for cloud


In the previous part of this series, we looked at the fierce competition in the CRM space. In
this article, well look at the geographic contribution to Salesforces (CRM) revenues. Well
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also discuss how in the current macroeconomic scenario, limited international exposure of
Salesforce revenues is a blessing in disguise.

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According to an IDC Research report released in February 2017, the United States (SPY)
could be the largest market for the public cloud between 20152020, generating more than
60% of total global revenues. The US is followed by Western Europe and APeJ (Asia-Pacific

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excluding Japan), which are expected to spend $24.1 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively, in
2017.

The Americas region contributes ~70% to overall revenues


The Americas continued to make up the majority of Salesforce revenues in fiscal 2017, as
the above chart shows. The company posted $6.2 billion in revenues from the Americas,
while Europe (EFA) and Asia-Pacific posted ~$1.4 billion and ~$793.5 million in revenues,
respectively, in fiscal 2017.

Unlike Salesforce, its peers Microsoft (MSFT), IBM, and Oracle (ORCL), generate a
substantial portion of their revenues from the Americas. Although the US is the largest
market for the cloud, APeJ and Latin America are expected to have the fastest spending
1
growth, with CAGR of 28.0% and 26.6%, respectively, as reported by IDC. This explains
why Salesforce is ramping up its investments in Europe and Asia to expand its footprint
there.

1. compound annual growth rate

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 10 OF 20

How the US Dollar Could Contribute to


Salesforces Revenue Growth
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforce generates less than one-third of its revenues from outside the Americas
Earlier in this series, we discussed how Salesforces (CRM) limited international exposure
would benefit the company and its investors in the current scenario. Salesforce generates
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only 26% of its revenues from outside the Americas.

Salesforces dependence on the Americas raises a question about how the company would
be impacted by a rally in the US dollar in the rest of 2017.

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The chart above shows that Salesforces international revenue exposure is below average.
On the other hand, its peers SAP (SAP), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), and VMware
(VMW) have above-average international revenue exposure.
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Factors that could push the dollar higher in 2017
Although the US dollar (UUP) is currently down ~5% from its high in January 2017, there is
a strong possibility that it would gain strength in the rest of 2017 on the back of an increase in
the federal interest rate.

On January 3, 2017, the US dollar peaked at $103.80, its highest level in 14 years. The
following factors contributed to the dollars rise:

the Feds interest rate hike of 25 basis points on March 15, 2017, to 0.75%1%
improvement in US employment
expectations of fiscal stimulus and possible tax reforms (corporate tax rate reduction from 35% to
15%) under President Trump
the Feds interest rate hike by 25 basis points on December 14, 2016, to 0.50%0.75%

Later in the series, well discuss how these factors affect Salesforce as an investment option
in 2017.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 11 OF 20

Assessing Salesforce as an Investment in


2017
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

US dollar to gain momentum


Earlier in this series, we discussed Salesforces (CRM) revenue concentration in the
Americas. We also assessed how this scenario could benefit the company in the current
scenario where the US dollar (UUP) is expected to gain strength this year.

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1
At the December 2016 meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to increase the target range
for the federal funds rate to 5075 basis points from the previous 2530 basis points.

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In the previous FOMC meeting held in March 2017, the Fed announced a 0.25% rate hike.
Now, industry analysts expect interest rate hikes in June 2017 and September 2017. This

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expectation of multiple interest rate hikes could push the US dollar higher in 2017.

The strong US dollar is expected to be one of the key downside catalysts for software
companies like Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), and Oracle (ORCL), which generate a majority
of their revenues outside the US.

Salesforces attractiveness
Cloud-based or subscription-based revenues are increasingly preferred because they lead to
more predictable recurring revenues. Salesforce pioneered and ruled SaaS until over a year
ago when Microsoft took over. Although Microsoft leads the overall enterprise SaaS space,
its significant international exposure could deter investors who are looking for SaaS
companies. Due to its long-held dominance in the SaaS space, Salesforce holds the
competitive edge over its peers.

In the current scenario in the IT sector, investors appetites could be inclined toward software
companies such as Salesforce that have limited international revenue exposure.

1. Federal Open Market Committee

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 12 OF 20

Salesforce and Its Peers: Profitability in the


SaaS Space
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Customers average life in SaaS space

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Earlier in this series, we discussed how the expected appreciation of the US dollar (UUP)
could make Salesforce (CRM) an option among investors. The average life of the customer
of SaaS companies like Salesforce depends on the time the company has had customers
and the amount of churn.

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Relationship between churn, customers average life, and profits


Churn lowers the average customers life as the older customers who churn must be
substituted with new customers. The lower the churn, the higher is the average customer life,
which enhances the companys profits.

The equation above explains the relationship between average customer life and churn
rate. Salesforce pioneered the SaaS model and had a first mover advantage. Thus,
Salesforces average customers life would be longer than its peers and so would be its
profitability. This explains the strategic acquisitions of LinkedIn and NetSuite in the SaaS
space by Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL), respectively.

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The chart above shows the impact of upgrades and upselling on the profitability of
companies in the SaaS space. As a result, SaaS companies can speed up the time to profit
by upgrading and upselling current customers.

However, the company must adhere to low-cost purchases that are different from the new
customer acquisition process. This explains why SaaS companies like Salesforce are so
intent on customer relationship management.
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What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 13 OF 20

Chart in Focus: Salesforces Cash Flow in


2017
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforce cash and cash flows


Earlier in this series, we discussed some of the metrics used in the SaaS space in relation to
Salesforce (CRM). Lets have a look at how Salesforce fares in terms of margins and cash
flow, which provides a better view of the companys profitability.

Salesforce has cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of ~$2.2 billion. Its total
debt is $1.8 billion. Salesforce doesnt have any short-term debt. The expansion of
1
Salesforces non-GAAP operating margin by 78 basis points in fiscal 2017 helped the
company record operating cash flow of $2.1 billionan increase of 29% YoY (year-over-
year).

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Despite huge growth, profits are elusive in the SaaS space


The chart above shows the relationship between the growth and price-to-revenue ratios of
public SaaS companies. Despite the huge growth in the SaaS space, the majority of SaaS
companies, including LinkedIn, NetSuite, Salesforce, and Workday (WDAY), are unprofitable
and have negative cash flows. LinkedIn and NetSuite have been acquired by Microsoft
(MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL), respectively, to fuel their ambitions in the CRM space.

In the SaaS universe, Salesforce is still not making a profit and has the highest positive
cash flow among its peers. With each passing quarter, Salesforce has managed to improve

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its margins. Fiscal 4Q17 marked 11 straight quarters in which Salesforce expanded its non-
GAAP operating margins.

1. generally accepted accounting principles

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 14 OF 20

Why Third Point Increased Its Position in


Salesforce
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Third Point increased its stake in Salesforce


Earlier in this series, we discussed the factors that contribute to the attractiveness of
Salesforce (CRM) as a preferred investment. Last week, Third Point LLC, a hedge fund
headed by activist investor Daniel Loeb, added 3 million shares of Salesforce to its portfolio.

Salesforce constitutes ~2.4% of the Third Point LLC portfolio, which the hedge fund acquired
at an average price of $79.89 per share. Recently, it appears that activist investors and
hedge funds are competing to increase their stakes in the company.

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Prior to Third Point, Corvex Management, Jana Partners, and Sachem Head Capital were
the other hedge funds and activist investors that added Salesforce in their portfolios. They
bought 3.5 million, 3.2 million, and 2.1 million shares, respectively.

Private equity and hedge funds interest in the tech space


Salesforce has caught the interest of hedge funds and activist investors due to its unique
position as well as double-digit revenue growth story, as we discussed earlier in the series.
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According to GuruFocus, Salesforces three-year revenue growth and three-year EBITDA


growth outperform 84% and 96% of global competitors respectively.

Recently, PE (private equity) and hedge funds are increasingly drawn to technology
companies. Their increased interest can be attributed to software companies transition
toward the cloud. As companies migrate toward the cloud, subscription and support revenues
make up a majority of their overall revenues, which is the case with Salesforce.

In late August 2016, PE firm Apollo Global Management announced the acquisition of
Rackspace Hosting for $4.3 billion. The tech industry formed the largest share of PE deals in
2016.

Activist investors
Activist investors strategies usually revolve around taking a stake in a company and then
devising ways to maximize shareholder returns. They usually exert considerable pressure on
companies either to change their capital structure or strategy as a prelude to spinning off or
selling to a PE firm.

Elliott Management, headed by Paul Singer, influenced Symantec to buy LifeLock to boost its
Consumer Security segment. Elliott Management also spurred the sale of Blue Coat Systems
to Symantec, thereby strengthening and expanding the latters Enterprise Security segment.
Elliott Management also had a considerable influence on the DellEMC (EMC) deal as well,
which is the biggest acquisition to date in the technology space.

In the past, weve seen that shareholder activism has played a dominant role in the breakup
of companies to unlock shareholder potential. Technology companies such as eBay (EBAY),
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and Symantec (SYMC) all finally succumbed to pressure and
announced their splits.

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What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 15 OF 20

Why Salesforce Is a Distinct Investment


Option in the SaaS Space
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforces unit economics


Earlier in this series, we discussed hedge funds growing interest in the tech space.
Salesforce (CRM) seems to have caught their eye, as evidenced by Third Point LLCs
increased stake in the company.

According to a 2017 Credit Suisse report, In 2017, investors will continue to have a bias
towards organic high-growth SaaS vendors with strong cash flow generation prospects and
favourable unit economics. With unit economics, Credit Suisse refers to retention rates,
recurring revenue mix, recurring revenue gross margin, and efficient sales and marketing
spending.

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A companys favorable unit economics could warrant it a premium valuation in comparison to


its peers. Unit economics also apply to Salesforce, which derives the bulk of its revenues
from subscription and support revenues and has consistently reported double-digit revenue
growth.

With each passing quarter, Salesforce has managed to expand its margins, indicating an
efficient sales and marketing spending strategy. Its investment in Salesforce Einstein, its AI
platform, also makes it stand out from its peers.

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Salesforces cash flow growth surpassed its revenue growth. Its operating cash flow grew
29%, while its revenues grew 26% in fiscal 2017. The companys cash flow achieved a
milestone in fiscal 2017 when it crossed the $2 billion threshold.

Mounting competition cannot be ignored


Although Salesforce is leaving no stone unturned in its effort to retain its position in SaaS and
the overall cloud space, its prospects are likely to be rationalized due to mounting
competition posed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL). Recently, Microsoft announced
a price cut that could impact Salesforce Sales Cloud, as we discussed earlier in the series.

Salesforce strategically acquired Demandware to establish itself as a lead player in the


marketing cloud space, and its marketing cloud product grew the most. As Adobe (ADBE)
leads the marketing cloud space, Salesforces expectation of generating a $1 billion run rate
from its marketing cloud could be thwarted.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 16 OF 20

How Salesforce Became a Leader in


Enterprise High Productivity Space
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforce App Cloud made it a leader in Enterprise hpaPaas


Earlier in the series, we discussed the factors that make Salesforce (CRM) an investment
option in the SaaS and overall software space. In May 2017, Salesforce announced that it
was placed in Gartners Leaders quadrant of its Enterprise hpaPaas (High Productivity
Application Platform-as-a-Service) report.

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App Cloud was the reason behind Salesforces placement in the Leaders quadrant in
hpaPaaS. Forrester Research also designated Salesforce App Cloud as the leader among its
peers in its March 2017 report.

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Salesforce App Cloud is the preferred choice after Azure and AWS

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App Cloud is an offshoot of CRMs Salesforce 1 platform. Launched in September 2015, App
Cloud now has more than 5.5 million apps and 2.3 million developers. It was designed
specifically for the enterprise crowd.

According to Salesforce, The Salesforce1 Platform brings together Force.com, Heroku,


and ExactTarget into one family of cloud services all built API first to help deliver apps
that connect products, users, and next generation experiences.

Heroku, which is Salesforces application development platform, is hosted on Amazons


(AMZN) Amazon Web Services (or AWS).

Commenting on App Cloud, IDC Research analyst Al Hilwa stated, With App Cloud,
Salesforce is integrating Heroku a bit more deeply with its force.com traditional model-driven
application platform.

According to the results of a conducted by Sumo Logic, a data analytics company,


1 2
companies preferred Microsoft (MSFT) Azure over Amazon (AMZN) in the IaaS and PaaS
spaces. Salesforce App Cloud was preferred by 28% of respondents, while 23% and 20%
showed a preference for IBM Cloud (IBM) and Google Cloud (GOOG), respectively.

1. infrastructure-as-a-service

2. platform-as-a-service

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 17 OF 20

A Look into Salesforces Technical


Indicators
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By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Stock trends and shareholder returns


So far in this series, we have discussed the fundamental factors that have impacted and are
expected to impact Salesforce (CRM) in the future. Lets have a look at Salesforces
technical indicators, which hold importance among traders and investors for making entry
and exit decisions in the market.

Moving averages and RSI (relative strength index) scores are among the most widely used
technical indicators. Well also compare Salesforces technical indicators with those of other
software companies.

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On May 15, 2017, Salesforce stock had risen ~17.4% in the trailing 12-month period. It had
risen ~7.8% and ~3.2% in the trailing one-month period and the trailing five-day period,
respectively. In comparison, Microsoft (MSFT), SAP (SAP), and Oracle (ORCL) generated
returns of approximately ~1.5%, -0.43%, and -0.59%, respectively, in the trailing five-day
period.
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MACD and RSI
On May 15, 2017, the last trading price for Salesforce stock was $83.71. The stock was
trading 1% below its 20-day moving average of $83.00, 2% below its 50-day moving average
of $83.00, and 7% below its 100-day moving average of $78.00.

A companys MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is the difference between its
short-term and long-term moving averages. Salesforces 14-day MACD of ~1.0 shows an
upward trading trend, as the figure is positive.

Salesforces 14-day RSI score is 89, which shows that the stock is neither overbought nor
oversold. An RSI score below 30 signifies that a stock is oversold, while an RSI score above
70 indicates that a stock is overbought.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 18 OF 20

Salesforces Value Proposition in the


Software Space
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforces scale in the software space


Earlier in this series, we discussed market expectations for Salesforces (CRM) soon-to-be-
announced fiscal 1Q18 earnings. We also discussed how Salesforce aims to grow in the
rapidly consolidating and competitive cloud space.

Now, lets compare the companys value proposition with that of other companies in the US
software space. On May 15, 2017, and as the below chart shows, Microsoft (MSFT) was the
largest player by market capitalization in the global software space, and it was followed by

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Oracle (ORCL). IBM (IBM), SAP (SAP), and Salesforce are other prominent players in the
software space.

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Increased focus on cloud and SaaS adoption bodes well for Salesforce stock

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As shown in the chart above, Salesforces market cap was ~$2.9 billion at the end of trading
on May 15, 2017, which was much lower than that of its peers. A companys market cap is its
stock price multiplied by its number of shares outstanding.

Earlier in the series, we discussed expectations from Salesforces fiscal 1Q18 earnings.
Looking at the companys trend of meeting or exceeding analysts expectations, it is likely
that the company with its fiscal 1Q18 results could surprise its investors and shareholders. If
Salesforce continues this trend, market sentiment around the stock would further improve.

In the last three months, Salesforce stock rose ~9%. If we consider its performance in the
last six months and one year, it rose ~16.8% and ~17.0%, respectively.

An improved outlook for the company, as well as an increased focus on the cloud, could
provide a boost to Salesforces market cap and stock.

Correction: This article originally misconstrued the formula for market cap calculations.

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 19 OF 20

Salesforces EV-to-EBITDA Multiple


Compared to Its Peers
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Salesforces EV-to-EBITDA ratio


Earlier in this series, we discussed Salesforces (CRM) value proposition in the software
1
space. In this article, well look at Salesforces EV-to-EBITDA multiple. Well also look at
other US software players.

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EV-to-EBITDA multiples are widely used in the valuation of companies across various
sectors. EV represents the market value of a companys equity and debt, minus cash and
cash equivalents. So, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio helps us determine whether a company is
undervalued or overvalued.

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Currently, Salesforces EV-to-EBITDA multiple is 83.59. The forward EV-to-EBITDA multiples


for Salesforces peers follow:

Microsoft (MSFT): ~13.1x


Oracle (ORCL): ~10.9x
IBM (IBM): ~9.4x
SAP (SAP): ~15.4x

Salesforces dividend yield


Microsofts forward annual dividend yield was ~2.3% on May 15, 2017, and Oracles and
IBMs yields were ~1.7% and ~4.0%, respectively. Unlike its peers in the software space,

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Salesforce doesnt pay dividends.

The chart above shows that during the trailing-12-month period, Apple and Microsoft were
among the top ten companies in the IT sector to spend the most on stock buybacks.

Investors who want exposure to Salesforce could consider investing in the SPDR S&P 500
ETF (SPY) (SPX). SPY has an ~29% exposure to application software. It invests ~0.23% of
its holdings in Salesforce.

In the final part of our series, well see what analysts are recommending for Salesforce.

Correction: This article originally included a wayward dollar sign next to Salesforces EV-to-
EBITDA multiple.

1. enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization

What Pushed Salesforce Stock to Reach an All-Time High? PART 20 OF 20

How Analysts View Salesforce Stock: 91%


Recommend a Buy
By Anne Shields| May 18, 2017 2:43 pm EDT

Wall Street analysts views on Salesforce stock


Earlier in this series, we discussed how growing competition in the cloud space is likely to
impact Salesforce (CRM) and its double-digit revenue growth. Microsoft (MSFT) dominates
the software space. Apart from Microsoft, IBM (IBM), SAP (SAP), Oracle (ORCL), and

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Salesforce are the prominent players in this space. Lets take a look at the select market-
centric views on Salesforce.

Among the 44 analyst recommendations on Salesforce stock, close to 91% of these analysts
made buy recommendations. Only one analyst made a sell recommendation, as we can
see in the chart below. The remainder issued hold recommendations. Analysts views on
Salesforce continue to be positive. Their views have not changed much in the last two or
three months.

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Salesforces price performance


Salesforces stock price movement in the past month has been positive. On May 16, 2017,
the companys stock had risen ~4.5%. Amid all the ups and downs in 2016, Salesforce stock
managed to generate returns greater than 18%.

Analysts target prices


The Wall Street consensus target price for Salesforce was $96.93 per share on May 15,
2017. The median target price was $100.00 on the same day. Salesforces closing price was
$88.81 on May 16, 2017.

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