Deterrence and

World War II

Agenda

Definition of deterrence

Factors that impact the effectiveness of deterrence

Current situation

Reputation

The beginning of World War II

What went wrong?

What did we learn?

Coercion

Deterrence: Persuading your opponent not to take action against your interests, by
threatening punishment

Compellence: Persuading your opponent to take some action, by threatening

punishment

Peaceful Coercion/Coercive Diplomacy: Includes both deterrence and compellence

Deterrence

Direct Deterrence: Deterring attack upon homeland

Extended Deterrence: Deterring attack on ally or other lesser interest

Immediate Deterrence: Deterring an adversary from taking a particular action after

 a crisis has already begun

General Deterrence: Deterring the initiation of crises

Factors Believed to Affect Deterrence Success

Balance of military capabilities

Balance of interests

Reputation

Balance of Capabilities

Need to have capability to carry out deterrent threat

North Korea example

The more the balance of capabilities favors you, the more successful your deterrent
threat is likely to be

You can carry out the threat more effectively and with less risk of major harm

US example

Going Beyond Capabilities

Having the capability to carry out a deterrent threat is not enough

You must also convince opponents that you have the will to carry it out

Particularly difficult when carrying it out is very costly

Nuclear war

Ground war with Russia if it invades Latvia

Attacking Syria after the use of chemical weapons

 Both interests and reputation might play into perceptions of will

Balance of Interests

If you have greater interest in the issue at stake (that is, you care more), your
deterrent threat is more likely to be successful

Especially if your interest is greater than your adversarys

This is why it is relatively easy to deter attacks on your homeland

How Do We Know the Balance of Interests?

Strategic logic

Why does the US have an interest in the security of South Korea?

Why does the US have an interest in the security of Saudi Arabia?

Public opinion

Costly signaling

More on this in two classes

Reputation

Widespread belief that someone or something has a particular characteristic

Two types of reputation that might be helpful

Reputation for being tough

Reputation for being honest

Puzzles Regarding Reputation

How context-specific is reputation?

If you show weakness in one situation, do people believe that you will show
weakness in every situation?

Or only in similar situations?

Does reputation adhere to states or leaders?

Can a state fix its reputation for weakness by replacing a leader who showed
weakness?

Skepticism of Importance of Reputation

Can we really draw a parallel between states and individuals?

Can reputation really outweigh current interests and balance of power?

Psychological reasons why it might be hard to develop a reputation for weakness

Undesirable behavior (standing firm) is attributed to disposition

Desirable behavior (backing down) is attributed to situational factors

Inter-War Europe

Germany lost WWI and was blamed for starting it

Forced to pay reparations, which greatly damaged economy

Size of military restricted in Versailles Treaty

Hitler comes to power in 1933

Known to be German nationalist and anti-Jewish

 Full ambitions not yet known

Run-Up to WWII in Europe

1935: Germany announces it will not abide by military restrictions in Versailles Treaty

1936: Germany remilitarizes Rhineland

March 1938: Germany annexes Austria

Sep 1938: Hitler demands control of the Sudetenland, a German-

populated area of
Czechoslovakia

Britain and France let him have it in the Munich agreement

British PM Neville Chamberlain on the Munich Agreement:

The settlement of the Czechoslovakian problem, which has now been achieved is, in my view,
only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all Europe may find peace.... We regard the
agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the
desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again.

My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned
from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for
our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.

Run-Up to WWII in Europe

March 1939: Germany annexes rest of Czechoslovakia

Aug 1939: Hitler demands control over portion of Poland

Britain and Poland appear to consider giving it to him, but they do not move fast
enough
 Hitler invades Poland

Britain and France declare war on Germany, starting World War II

Boden and Hildebrand

Why were Britain and France so reluctant to stand up to Hitler?

What were some of the factors that prevented them from making a strong and
coordinated response?

Analysis

Did Britain and France obtain a reputation for weakness that emboldened Hitler?

Maybe

When discussing reasons why he believed that Britain and France would not fight
to defend Poland, he said, Our enemies are worms. I saw them in Munich.

However, most of Hitlers analysis in the same meeting was about the balance of
power and balance of interests

Analysis

Would Hitler have given up his territorial ambitions if Britain and France had
confronted him more strongly?

Maybe not

But at least they could have started fighting before Germany had built up as
much military power

Lessons Learned
 WWI and WWII taught opposite lessons

WWI resembled the spiral model more

Politicians learned the lesson not to go to war too rapidly

WWII fit more with the deterrence model

Politicians learned the lesson not to delay fighting too long and to respond firmly
to expansionist states

You always fight the last war

Next Time

Discuss how policymakers applied the lessons of WWII to the Cold War

There has been a substitution in the assigned reading