Weekly Market Reflection

7th Aug to 11th Aug 2017

Gold on track to snap 3-week winning streak amid dollar COMDEX

rebound

Gold prices slumped in the wake of a surge in the dollar, after a

stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report eased concerns
over a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy. Gold remained
on track to snap a three-week winning streak amid renewed
expectations the Federal Reserve will keep to its plan to raise
rates at least once more this year, after U.S nonfarm payrolls
report topped expectations, pointing to continued strength in the
labor market. The U.S. economy created 209,000 jobs in July, Market Updates
handily beating the consensus estimate for the creation of MCX Date Date % Chg
183,000 jobs. As was widely expected the jobless rate remained 28-07-17 4-08-17
unchanged at 4.3% while average hourly earnings met GOLD 28823 28406 -1.45%
expectations, rising 0.3% from the prior month. Gold prices had SILVER 38460 37262 -3.11%
traded within a narrow range for most of the week, struggling to COPPER 408.90 406.70 -0.54%
CRUDE 3192 3149 -1.35%
capitalize on weakness in the dollar, as market participants
ALUMINIUM 121.15 121.10 -0.04%
awaited further insight into the strength of the labor market. LEAD 147.65 149.75 +1.42%
NICKEL 656.90 659.00 +0.32%
ZINC 178 179.20 +0.67%
Crude oil posts weekly loss ahead of OPEC meeting NATURALGA 189.50 178.10 -6.02%
S
Crude futures settled higher on Friday, capping off a volatile COMEX Date Date % Chg
week which saw crude prices rise above $50 a barrel before 28-07-17 4-08-17
pairing gains amid renewed concerns over OPECs compliance GOLD 1268.40 1258.30 -0.80%
with the deal to curb production. Crude oil prices settled lower SILVER 16.695 16.252 -2.65%
for the week amid renewed concerns over OPECs compliance CRUDE 49.71 49.58 -0.26%
with the deal to curb production, after a survey, earlier this COPPER 2.870 2.885 +0.52%
week, showed OPEC supplies rose to their highest level of the $ INDEX 93.11 93.37 +0.28%
year so far. That despite the current pact to reduce output by USDINR 64.115 63.755 -0.56%
1.2m barrels per day (bdp).

Metals looking firmer ahead of US employment report

OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE
The base metals are looking firmer again having had a few days Calls of the week
of rest this week, nickel and lead have taken over the lead on Date Commodity Entry Exit P/L
the upside but copper, zinc and tin look well placed to push 01/0 DHANIYA(S) 4850 4715 13500
higher, while aluminium still seems to be in no hurry to follow, 8
with prices seeming more likely to test support rather than 01/0 COPPER(L) 415 UNEX -
8
resistance. We remain mildly bullish for the base metals
Weekly pick
complex especially while the dollar remains weak any rebound
Date Commodity Entry Exit P/L
in the dollar, which could be seen if the US employment report
surprises in the upside, could create a headwind for the metals 01/0 NICKEL(L) 660 658 -500
8
in the short term.
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 Economic Calendar

Time Currency Event Forecast Previous

Aug 7- 7th-12th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.71%

10:55pm USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

Aug 8 - 7:30pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.67M

10:55pm USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

Aug 9 - 6:00pm USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 0.0%

6:00pm USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 2.2%

8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.5M

Aug 10 - 6:00pm USD PPI m/m 0.1%

6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 240K

6:00pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.1%

7:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 20B

Aug 11 - 6:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.0%

6:00pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.1%

7:10pm USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

9:00pm USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

PIVOT
COMMODITIE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND
S
ALUMINIUM 120 118 115 123 125 127 Bearish

LEAD 147 145 143 150 152 155 Bullish

NICKEL 640 625 610 665 680 690 Bullish

ZINC 177 175 172 180 182 185 Bullish

NATURAL 177 173 170 180 183 185 Bearish

GAS

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 Gold and Silver

GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX Gold last week has given good

resistance breakout but not able to hold
its higher level and came down. For
upcoming week if its price breach its
support level trend line which is near to
its 28200 support level then it may drag
down towards next support level of
27600.Sell on higher level strategy may
be work until its price manages above
its major resistance level of 28800 then
we can expect trend reversal and it can
test next major resistance level of 29200.

STRATEGY
PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
MCX 28300 28000 27700 28750 29000 29250 below 28250 for the target of 27750,
with stop loss of 28850.

SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX Silver last week was in sharp fall, It

made a high of 38820 which is near to its
61.08 retracement level but not able to
manages above this level and come
down .For upcoming week its down trend
may be continue .It has crucial support
level of 37000 if its price sustain below
this level then it may drag down towards
next support level of 36000.On upward
side it has major resistance level of
38400 if its price manages above this
level then we can see next resistance
level of 39150.

STRATEGY
PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
Better strategy in MCX SILVER is to sell
MCX 37000 36250 35450 39000 39000 40000 below 37000 for the target of 35500,
with stop loss of 39000.

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 Crude and Copper
.
TECHNICAL VIEW
CRUDE
MCX Crude oil last week was in
sideways to bullish movement. For
upcoming week it may take upside
movement if its price manages above its
upside trend line .which is near to its
3235 level then it can test next resistance
level of 3350 .On down ward side it has
taking support of its trend line which is
near to its 2990 if its price sustain below
this level then its price may pull down
towards next support level of 2900.

STRATEGY
PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Better strategy in MCX CRUDE is to buy
above 3200 for the target of 3400, with
MCX 3075 3000 2930 3190 3270 3350
stop loss of 2950.

COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX Copper last week was in

consolidation phase after testing its
major resistance level of 414. For
upcoming week if its price manages
above this level then it may take good
upside movement and test next
resistance level of 425. On down ward
side it has crucial support level of 395 if
its price sustains below this level then it
can test next support level of 387.

STRATEGY
PIVOTS S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to
MCX 402 395 387 415 422 430 buy above 415 for the target of 425, with
stop loss of 395.

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 Agri Commodity Updates

GUARGUM
Guargum showed bullish movement last week, and
able to close around its important resistance level of
7950. If the prices maintain above its resistance level
of 8000 then the bullish momentum will take prices
up to 8250 level. On other hand if the prices sustain
below 7650 then prices may find the next support
level of 7425.

PIVOTS S1 S2 R1 R2
7740 7500 8000 8250

SOYAREF
Soyaref showed bearish movement last week and
found the support level of 642. If the prices maintain
above its resistance level of 650 then the bullish
momentum will take prices up to 660 levels. On
other hand if the prices sustain below 640 then
prices may find the next support level of 625.

PIVOTS S1 S2 R1 R2
640 632 650 660

TURMERIC
Turmeric showed sideways movement last week,
and able to close around its important resistance
level of 7900. If the prices maintain above its
resistance level of 7900 then the bullish momentum
will take prices 8200 level. On other hand if the
prices sustain below the support level of 7350 then
prices find the next support level of 7000.

PIVOTS S1 S2 R1 R2
7450 7050 7900 8350

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 Calls of the week
(Premium Section)

CALL: SELL DHANIYA SEP BELOW 4790 TARGET 4620 SL 5020.

CALL: SELL ALUMINIUM BELOW 121 TARGET 119 SL 124.

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 Weekly Pick
(Premium Section)

CALL: SELL SILVER BELOW 37000 TARGET 36000 SL 38500.

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