Dane Boswell

Skittles project
Math 1040

Confidence interval.

A confidence interval will measure the probability that a number or test will fall in
between a set of two numbers, one the lower bracket and the other the upper bracket of
the interval, found by adding and subtracting the point estimate. We must use the point
estimate to determine the confidence interval as well as have several other pieces of
information, such as the level of confidence.

Lets construct a 99% confidence interval for the true proportion of yellow skittles.

1) Total skittles = 730

2) Yellow skittles = 140
3) Level of confidence = .99 or 99%
4) (alpha) = .01
5) X= 140
6) n=730
7) Confidence level = .99

We need to test for approximately normal distribution, by the formula (np(1-p) >= 10)

P^ is equal to 140/730 and E = 2.575 times (square root(140/730(1-140)/730 =.0375

So the 99% interval will be = { .1543, .2293}

If we take a look at the CI, this will imply that we are at a 99 percent confidence level
that the true proportion of the yellow skittles will be between (Confidence interval
stated above). When we compare this to our value of .192 we can see that we are well
within the CI. That means that with every skittle bag purchase, you should see the
yellow skittles within our confidence interval level. Which is fine, I mean yellow
skittles are supposed to be lemon flavored right? Lemon is awesome.

Now lets construct a 95% CI for the true mean number of skittles.
N= 12
Sample mean per bag = 60.83 for the class
Standard Deviation = 2.98
CI = .95
(tAlpha) = .05
Df = 11

Following the same method as above we can achieve the results as follows:
1) by calculator we get { 58.94, 62.73 } and this is going to be our Confidence
Interval bracket
 Therefore we are at a 95% confidence that in each skittles bag we should have around
58 and 62 skittles per bag. According to this data, we shouldnt see you getting
anything less that 58 very often. So consider yourself luck (or I guess unlucky) if you
do.

Testing the Hypothesis?

What is a Hypothesis, you ask? Well sit down and listen here, a hypothesis is a
proposition assumed as a premise in an argument. In statistics however, hypothesis is
a statement in regards to a characteristic of one or more population proportions and or
means. We use these test statements to perform a procedure, based on a sample
evidence and probability, used to test these statements and whether or not we will be
able to support or reject their claim.

Use a (alpha = .05) significance level to test the claim that 20% of all skittles are
going to be red.

n = 730, NOTE) !! np (1-p) >= 10? 730(.2) (1-.2) = 116.8

x = 146 The reason we will perform this step first is we need

to establish whether or not the distribution is
level of significance = .05 approximately normal or not. This helps us in solving
p(hat) = 146/730 = .2, the claim.

z (sub alpha) = .05,

z = +- 1.96

h0: p = .20 by calculator p = .99999

h1: p not = .20 is p < level of significance -> .99999<.05 FALSE
z (not) = (.2 - .2)/STUFF = 0 [Test Statistic]

CONCLUSION!
The test statistic or (Zo) is = to zero and lies between the two critical values of +or- 1.96. We
cannot reject the Ho hypothesis, because we simply do not have enough evidence to support
this claim. Granted that this sample that was taken, we have 20% red skittles in these bags, but
that does not mean that we can claim this for all skittles bags.

REFLECTION:

In order to perform a quick and accurate hypothesis test, we will need to cover our
bases. First we need to make sure that the distribution is normal. The formula we use for this
was mentioned earlier, but here it is again. [np(1-p)>= 10], this formula will ensure that our
population is large enough to be considered effective in proving a hypothesis. The other thing we
must consider is that the sample size [n] must be less that 5% of the total population [N]. If you
are unable to correctly pin point your population, we can assume that [n>=30] would equate to a
relatively normal distribution as well. Our class project was considered to have a sample that 730
and by following the afore mentioned formulae, we can see that this is a normally distributed
depiction of skittle acquisition.

There are several issues that could still potentially cause data issues or conflictions. We
must first consider the data entry. If one student didnt put in the correct amount of skittles we
could be skewed either left or right, and that data will affect our confidence intervals and
hypothesis testing. There are also the issues of incorrect calculations, (lets face it, Im still
learning this stuff, this is a very real possibility!) as well as the 2 types of errors that can occur
with the testing of Hypothesis; Type 1 and Type 2. We could remedy these situations several
ways. For 1, we could buy skittles from different places, and possibly have all the students input
data together or in teams to avoid data entry errors.

The overall conclusion that I have made with regards to the skittles assignment and
researching all this information is that the margin of error here is very large. Lets think about
how this candy is made; I think we can all agree that this candy is thrown through machines and
conveyor belts and then the bags are probably weighed to determine the correct weight
intervals are met. There is not a dude sitting in chair hand picking each damn skittle that gets
placed into your bag. Not ideal, but I bet he had great dental. Anyway, the data done above will
conclude that we can reject the claim that the mean number of skittles per bag is 55.

Thank you!