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If that were true, your life and mine would be getting better with each passing
year.
Copyright WiseInsights.net 1
Its not like most everyone around you is making good decisions they dont
regret or that turn out well and you are the exception.
We all struggle.
Why do you think most people get anxious when trying to make an
important decision? Because they want this one to turn out well not like
some other ones they made!
Even when we try mightily and apply considerable brain power, we end up
choosing the wrong option almost as often as we choose
a good one.
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Its not just in business and career. In every area of life, we humans often
make choices that dont turn out well (certainly not as well as we had
hoped).
What we need is a proven process or system to follow when faced with making
important decisions. One born out of successful outcomes that we can all learn
from.
No, there are no guarantees that every decision you make will be a winner,
even using the best possible system. There are too many unknowns in the
future.
But, by using a process that seeks to counteract the main factors leading to
a bad or inferior decision, and teaches you proven techniques that improve
results, you sharply increase the odds of a better outcome.
Final note:
Although there are many excellent resources that touch on how
we process information and make decisions (e.g. Thinking Fast and Slow,
The Art Of Choosing, Blink, Think Twice, The Impulse Factor), I am
personally indebted to Chip and Dan Heath and their excellent book
Decisive.
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In it, they distill what I believe are the main obstacles that significantly
lower your odds of making a good decision and provide an excellent system
to counteract those obstacles (increasing your odds). Do yourself a huge
favor: Go to Barnes and Noble or Amazon, pick up a copy, and study it. It
may be the best investment of your time and money on this topic.
The following is a 5 step process you can use every time you face a difficult,
vexing or important decision.
Here is the question: Are you trying to find the best decision for a situation
you are facing or are you trying to make a certain decision work for you
(which may not).
In the end, you will be very cold and no closer to a good outcome (Houston).
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To make a good decision, you need to approach the decision with an open
mind, open to an option you might not have originally liked or even thought
of when you started.
Heres the point: Be honest with yourself and put on the table any
unspoken desires that are secretly steering you in one direction. That
direction may, in fact, be a good one. But, open yourself up to other choices
and options that may be even better.
Really
Are You Listening?
I cant tell you how many times I have started running down a path that I
thought was best, only to have God nudge me about a different option I
hadnt fully considered. One thing is certain: if you want to ensure a bad
ultimate outcome, disregard the wisdom and guidance of God.
Remember: you dont know what you dont know. A little guidance from
above is a great thing.
If you only put into action one thing from this book, it would be this step. In
fact, this is probably the #1 reason we dont make a good decision we are
only looking at a situation one way or trying to decide on a single option.
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Should I take this job, or not?
Should I quit this job, or not?
Should I buy this car, or not?
Researcher Daniel Kahneman calls this human tendency What you see is all
there is. This one thing we are fixated on or evaluating is all we see or
consider.
Here are just two rigorous studies that come from the world of business.
These are particularly instructive because these decisions were not made
impulsively or from the hip. Instead, these companies were diligently trying
to make a good decision.
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In other words, this study concluded that the company was 6 times
more likely to have a very good outcome if it made a decision with
more than one option.
Bottom line from this study: Companies were 65% more likely to
make a bad decision when evaluating a single option.
Why does this single option approach fail so much more often?
One obvious reason is you are limiting your chance to find a good (the best)
option if you only have one horse to bet on.
Another reason is what I alluded to in step #1: People are often looking at
an option they subconsciously want to work. Instead of spending their time
honestly evaluating its merits, they are trying to figure out how can I make
this work?
Regardless of the reason, the numbers dont lie. Making a decision based on
a single choice significantly increases the likelihood the decision will not
turn out as well as when you are evaluating multiple options.
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How To Increase Your Options And The Odds Of Making A Good
Decision
The problem is that often, we cant see any other options. We are faced
with a situation and we feel like we have only one option: to do it... or not
to do it.
How can you increase the choices and options you have when making a
decision?
Here are some suggested ways to increase your perceived options (and the
odds of finding the best choice):
Talk to others
. Other people often have a different perspective than
you do. They can brainstorm with you. What about this? What
about that? Have you considered Dont be too quick to dismiss
their suggestions. Instead, be open and give them time to be
evaluated. The very best people to pursue are those who might have
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faced a similar decision you are now facing. They can often give you a
helpful perspective from their success or failure.
What other options do you have if you took the time or money or
whatever cost is associated with one choice and used it in other
directions? Get creative!
This little exercise can help you generate some options you may have
never considered.
For example, if you are trying to decide whether or not you should
attend a certain school, what would happen if that option was
suddenly gone? If you are determined to get your degree, you would
begin to look at other possible schools. If they were off the table, you
might look for a job in the field you are wanting a degree in.
This exercise forces you to get creative, think outside the box and
helps you identify new ways to get where you want to go.
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Combine parts of options
. Instead of just considering one way to do
something, why not mix and match possible options?
For example, if you are trying to decide whether to stay or quit your
job, why not consider different combinations of staying and leaving?
Staying doesnt have to be same as it is now. Maybe look to move
into a different role or different area of the company that you would
enjoy more. For the leave option, it doesnt have to be an all or
nothing. Perhaps you could work part-time while you do something
else you want to do or pursue.
I understand not all these possibilities are true possibilities, but the
goal with this exercise is to force yourself to see new possibilities.
Who knows? Some idea you had never considered or some hybrid
approach may turn out to be the best solution.
Ok, lets assume you now have more choices to work with (limit it to 3-5),
now how to decide? There are still more mines you might step on, blowing
up your chances of making a good decision. These obstacles are built into
your nature so you cant see them in yourself although you can see them
in others.
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For example, you could be house hunting and find this great house.
Because you like it so much, you begin to downplay the problems with the
house (roof leaks, structural defects, money needed to address the
problems) and convince yourself, based on other facts, that this is the best
choice.
The results?
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Twisting The Facts To Reach A Conclusion
Sounds kind of like the old statement: I already made up my mind. Dont try
to confuse me with the facts.
Perhaps youve heard of the man who thought he was dead? His
delusion became such a problem that his family finally paid for him
to see a psychiatrist.
Finally, the doctor tried one last approach. He took out his medical
books and proceeded to show the patient that dead men dont
bleed. After hours of tedious study, the patient seemed convinced
that dead men dont bleed.
Bottom line:
we often make a poor decision because we unconsciously find
and embrace information that confirms what we already believe (or want to
believe).
No
One
Is
Immune
To
This
Bias
.
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How To Combat The Problem
What can you do to counteract it and ensure that you are assessing your
options fairly so you can select the best option?
Try asking yourself: What would have to be true for this less favored option
to be the best option, the right answer, to work the best and have the best
outcome?
Another way to say it: What if my least favorite option were actually the
best one? What data might convince me of that?
Since we are often stuck in our own perceptions, arguing the opposite is not
enough. We need outside input.
Find people who can play devils advocate with you. I suggest you use
someone who is not arrogant and opinionated since even if they are right,
you will unconsciously resist their viewpoint.
If, however, you can speak to someone who is humble, open minded and
thoughtful, they can potentially help you see your less favorable option in a
different light.
Honestly and unbiasedly assessing your options means not only to consider
the least favored decisions but to challenge the favored options.
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Why let them just skate to the front of the line without a closer
examination? Instead, probe that favored option with real questions (not
softball questions).
I know Im an idiot.
In retrospect, all the gushing assessments of how this thing couldnt fail
should have sent off warning bells in my head (not so fast, partner!).
Instead, if I had been a little more rigorous in evaluating the numbers and
challenged my assumptions that everyone would want this new technology,
I might have saved myself from a rude awakening.
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Why?
Well, I reasoned that I was good with numbers, and in the one and only
class on accounting I had taken up to that point, I did pretty well.
It was only after I graduated and took a job in accounting that I knew: I hate
this! I had to grind it out for about two years but then quit. I probably
should have been on a suicide watch the entire time.
Only after I took several years of accounting classes, graduated and started
working at an accounting firm did I find out I could have done a summer
internship, or a year-long internship to test out my assumption that this is
what I wanted to do as a career.
Why try to predict the best option when you can find out for sure?
Quick recap: you have expanded your options and have sought to evaluate
those options in an unbiased manner by counteracting your confirmation
bias.
Actually, you cant and shouldnt totally escape your emotions. They can
play a helpful part in the decision making process as Jonah Lehrer points out
in his book How We Decide. I am not advocating a complete rational
approach to decision making (which isnt really possible and which research
has shown can be prone to errors in decision making).
Your emotions can distort your perception of your options and lead to poor
decisions. Thats why it is foolish to go grocery shopping when you are
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hungry. Things you wouldnt normally buy suddenly seem like a sensible
decision (which you later regret).
This unseen gravitational pull can hinder you from embracing better
choices.
Copyright WiseInsights.net 16
losing something as from the anticipated pleasure of gaining the same
thing.
Whats going on here? The pain of giving up the mugs (which they
received only minutes earlier) was significantly higher than the pleasure of
obtaining a mug. Yet, both thought they were assessing the value fairly.
Heres the point: your unseen emotions and irrational perspectives can
unknowingly skew your ability to assess your options objectively.
1. Time perspective . Try to imagine how you would you feel a year from
now and then 10 years from now if you moved forward with a
particular decision? Do you find yourself seeing this as a regrettable
choice once you got some distance from it?
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Or embarrassed?
This is why one piece of sound advice is always to sleep on it before you
make a decision. That gives you a chance to get some distance from the
heat of the moment.
Uh-huh.
Copyright WiseInsights.net 18
A study analyzing doctors accuracy in a diagnosis indicated that even
in the cases where they were completely certain, they were wrong
about 40% of the time. Im feeling good about this assessment is
not necessarily inner confirmation you made the proper evaluation
of a situation.
The reality is there is no possible way to accurately predict the future. There
are just too many variables and too many unknowns.
If we are wrong as often as we are right in predicting how the future will
turn out, what can we do to prepare for the high likelihood things wont
turn out like you think?
For example, you are thinking about taking a job with a certain
company and would have to relocate to another city. You are excited
about this opportunity and feel confident that this will be a good move.
It might. But, what if it doesnt turn out quite like you thought?
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A premortem has you mentally put yourself into that situation and
imagine things a year from now. What things would cause it not to
work out? You dont like the new city. Or, you have difficulty getting
connected to life outside of work. Or the job is far more demanding
(hours, stress) than you were led to believe. Or you miss family and
friends where you live today.
The goal is not to convince yourself it will all turn out badly or to get
depressed about the future. It is to identify areas that could contribute
to the outcome turning out less favorably than you anticipated. Once
you have those on the table, you can then better assess that option and
take some action steps.
For example, research the climate or the culture of the city before you
decide. Or, develop a plan to promote your connections in that city
(join a club, research good churches, learn how the natives like to spend
their free time-- if it is doing things that dont float your boat, well, now
you know).
A premortem not only helps you obtain a fuller picture of what could
happen (so you can make an informed decision), it also helps you
prepare yourself for those possibilities if you do decide to move ahead.
Of course, since you cant predict the future, and a choice you make (or
dont make) now could go wrong, what can you do to limit the
downside and minimize the regrets?
2. Set a tripwire. Chip and Dan Heath in their excellent book, Decisive,
introduce the concept of setting tripwires in your decision making.
The term comes from the realm of the military and describe a wire
stretched close to the ground around the perimeter of a camp, so
that when someone disturbs or trips the wire, it sets off an alarm
that stirs the soldiers in camp into action.
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A tripwire in decision making identifies conditions determined in
advance that warrant action.
I set up two tripwires- time and situation based. The first tripwire
was to pursue this new opportunity for only 6 months. If, in 6
months, I had not made a sale, then it was over. This prevented
compounding a bad decision. It is always difficult to let go of
something you have invested a lot of time and energy into. A tripwire
helps prevent that.
But, what if I made several sales but continued to see little income?
Should this continue indefinitely?
The second tripwire was situation based: if this venture was not
consistently generating at least $1,000/mo of income within the first
9 months, then I needed to move on.
What decision are you looking at that could use some tripwires?
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Putting
---------> what
you
just
learned
into
action
Revisit this material regularly (since you will make more than one
decision in the future, right?). The more you read it, especially in the
context of a new decision, the more you will slowly incorporate it
into the way you approach decisions.
If you are feeling like, this information is good but it is too much work
then let me remind you:
Isnt it worth a little bit of effort to have a better life? Whats the
alternative?
Copyright WiseInsights.net 22
FinalRequest
Ihopeyoufoundthisinformationhelpful.Ihaveasimplerequest
well,actuallyitistworequests:
1. Sendmeamessagetomypersonalemailaddress
patrickm@wiseinsights.net andletmeknowwhatyouthinkofthis
report.Iftherewasaparticularideayoufoundhelpful,sharethat,
too.
2. Doyouknowsomeonewhomightbenefitfromthisinformation?
Dothemafavorsendthem thislinktomydecisionmaking
resourcepage .Whoknows?Theremightbesomeresearchthat
trulyhelpsthem.
AboutTheAuthor
PatrickMcDanielisthefounderofWiseInsights.net.HeisaGoogle
certifiedinternetmarketer(Adwords/Analytics)whohasdoneextensive
researchintheareaofdecisionmaking.Hewaspropelledinthisareaafter
gettingfedupwithmakingchoicesthatseemedgood,butturnedout
poorly.
Patrickisthefatheroffourgreatkidsandthehusbandtoonegreatwife
for27years.Oneofhishiddentalentsisbeingabletofindawaytofitone
moreiteminafulldishwasher.Tryputtingthatonyourresume!
CopyrightWiseInsights.net 24