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BETTER
PLACES:
Autonomous vehicles and
future opportunities
WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff in
association with Farrells
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MAKING BETTER PLACES: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
FOREWORD
Autonomous vehicles will be transformational. They have the potential to
support a better quality of life, economic growth, health, safety and social
connections. They offer convenient and affordable mobility to all of us,
regardless of where we live, our age or ability to drive. They could also help
to improve the way that our existing places and routes work, while offering
new potential for more valuable land, and additional homes and jobs.
INTRODUCTION
DRIVERLESS AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (AVs) ARE COMING, AND THEY
WILL BE TRANSFORMATIONAL.
WITH THE RIGHT PLANNING, THEY OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR A BETTER
QUALITY OF LIFE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, IMPROVED HEALTH AND BROADER
SOCIAL CONNECTIONS, BY OFFERING CONVENIENT AND AFFORDABLE
MOBILITY TO ALL OF US, REGARDLESS OF WHERE WE LIVE, OUR AGE OR
ABILITY TO DRIVE.
A connected network of vehicles will be safer, more For each, we have drawn images of a feasible future
sustainable and efficient than the cars of today. In time, case, to show the spaces as they could look and feel if
AVs will be able to move around without direct driver we reach a point where autonomous vehicles are
input to transport people and goods, on demand, from the norm.
door to door using the most efficient routes.
New technologies will only win widespread acceptance
Whats more, tomorrows road transport system will when they are shown to work seamlessly, safely,
interact seamlessly with other transport systems, offering efficiently and affordably in existing places, using current
end-to-end journey connectivity and resilience. transport infrastructure and where appropriate when
mixed with other vehicles.
The transition to AVs also offers enormous potential for
land value uplift alongside additional homes and jobs, In parallel, we can accelerate progress, trust and take-
if key steps are taken to lock in the anticipated place up through investment in AV systems in new places,
making and land-use benefits. allowing trials and roll-out of innovative concepts with
fewer constraints. Therefore we also explore how a
We are not seeking to justify or rationalise fully-autonomous future opportunity area, garden city or
the business case for driverless cars or AVs in housing zone could look and feel.
themselves.
City centres
Suburban spaces
Motorways
Rural areas
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90%
exclusive. That said, their availability
for a particular city, place or route will
play a major role in determining the
benefits that are generated.
Roadside clutter
eliminated: no road signs,
speed limits or traffic lights
needed
No permanent parking
on-street, but flexible
spaces available for
deliveries and servicing
This aligns well with the development areas already identified in planning documents across the
country, where growth plans are of a relatively large scale and are expected to build out over the next
ten to twenty years.
AV ZONES OFFER 15-20% ADDITIONAL Designing out the majority of parking spaces from
DEVELOPABLE AREA a new AV zone would create at least 15% additional
land area (at ground level) for more valuable uses,
A new development designated as a dedicated zone compared with our existing urban centres. Depending
for shared AV use could offer between 15% and on scale, this could create the potential for thousands
20% additional developable area compared with a of additional homes and jobs, as well as extra land
typical central urban layout. This is primarily due to for quality green and open spaces.
the removal of almost all parking spaces, but also
because of roadspace simplification that will save It could also reduce costs as the same developable
space. area could be achieved with a more efficient use of
ground level space (and perhaps above or below as well,
AVs would move seamlessly between booked journeys depending on the situation).
or would return to a designated hub for storage,
charging and maintenance until they are next needed. With reference to the latest DCLG figures (below),
a 100 hectare AV zone development in the heart
Available data confirms that central London has a of London could gain more than 1.25 billion
parking coverage of around 16% and a total of around in additional land value uplift as a direct result,
6.8 million parking spaces, on and off street. Assuming a or 300 million in outer London or 15-75
typical average parking bay size, this means that around million across much of the rest of the country. The
8,000 hectares of central London is used for parking. introduction of AV zones could therefore become
General figures of 15-30% parking coverage are typical a significant factor in future development viability
of New York, Paris, Vienna, Boston and Hong Kong. appraisals.
AV zones that increase the amount of residential land by removing parking spaces
could make future developments considerably more viable.
DCLGs data (2015) identifies that post-development residential land value uplifts of
1-4 million per hectare are typical of much of the country.
Most London boroughs typically reach an uplift of 10-30 million per hectare, while
Westminster and the City of London uplifts are upwards of 90 million.
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MUCH SAFER LOCAL ROADS Street clutter can be virtually eliminated, as AVs will
not need to gather information from the roadside. In
In an AV zone, cycle safety would be transformed as a zone designed and built for AVs from the outset,
AVs would be far more aware of bicycles than drivers direction signs, speed limit signs and traffic lights
are today. The bicycles themselves could be linked into will no longer be required. Visibility splays can be
the wider system in time, offering even greater safety reduced and intersections can be simplified.
improvements.
AV STORAGE AND THE CAR-TO-AV
Similarly, pedestrians will be better protected and INTERCHANGE
vehicle speeds will adjust to allow AVs to take proper
account of people crossing roads. AVs have to be stored somewhere when not in use.
Vehicles can be supplied from a series of mini-hubs
In return, as pedestrians and users of public spaces, we throughout the AV zone, which ensure a local supply
will all have to get used to a new etiquette for AVs to of a vehicle on demand to any home or business.
match the logic and behaviour of the vehicles. When not on call, AVs would return to these mini-
hubs for charging. Larger AV hubs or depots would be
One of the key changes that will make an AV zone needed for servicing and storage purposes, but these
significantly safer than todays urban areas is that AVs do not need to occupy prime locations so could be
will put people at the top of the user hierarchy, rather underground or out-of-centre.
than vehicles. This offers many of the benefits of a
pedestrianised area without the need to compromise For those who wish to drive outside the AV zone in the
on accessibility. short to medium term, car clubs and car parks (similar to
todays park and ride facilities) could be created at the
zone edge.
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TRANSFORMING
CITY CENTRES
THE WIDESPREAD UPTAKE OF
CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLES CREATES AN OPPORTUNITY
TO REINVIGORATE CITY AND TOWN
CENTRES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THESE
PLACES WOULD REMAIN FAMILIAR BUT
WILL BECOME GREENER, CLEANER
AND MORE LIVEABLE SPACES AS
DRIVERLESS VEHICLES AND THEN AVs
ARE INTRODUCED.
Adding shared AV use to this future scenario offers Once driverless technologies are well-established and
additional placemaking benefits and congestion relief. trusted, there will come a key point when sufficient
vehicles meet the defined standards for driverless
First, similar to the AV zone, unnecessary parking vehicles. A city or urban authority could then decide
can be removed from city centre streets, and car to designate some routes or areas as driverless zones
parks can be redeveloped for more valuable uses. or, beyond that, AV zones. These could be used
As discussed earlier, parking takes up around 15-30% by vehicles that meet the DfT-defined standard of
of a typical urban area, so the land value uplift could be driverless connectivity, regardless of ownership (private
similar on a per hectare basis - to that identified for an or shared), and the streetscape could be changed and
AV zone. de-cluttered to suit.
Of the estimated 8,000 hectares of central London SEAMLESS INTERCHANGE WITH INTER-
land occupied by parked cars today, it is reasonable URBAN MASS TRANSIT
to assume that 50-70% potentially more than
5,000 hectares could be released once AVs are Demand for mass movement along core routes between
commonly in use. Some of this land (largely on-street urban centres will remain, catering for peak commuter
parking spaces) will be well suited to pedestrian and routes and inter-city trips. It is unlikely that sufficient
cycle enhancements, small-scale retail and commercial efficiency or cost gains would be made by hundreds of
improvements or better open spaces. Off-street car individual AVs converging on particular routes.
parks and similar could offer larger-scale redevelopment
opportunities. Instead, AVs will offer a door-to-door first or last mile
travel option to and from mass transit interchanges.
At typical densities between 25 and 50 dwellings per They will also be able to fulfil journeys where there is no
hectare, the introduction of AVs therefore opens up the public transport equivalent, or where levels of demand
potential for hundreds of thousands of new homes in do not support an economically viable service.
our existing city centres.
The combination of a data-rich connected network for
Second, under a shared use model, we would need far road transport together with similarly developed systems
fewer AVs than cars in circulation to maintain todays for other transport modes will help to make stations
car-based travel patterns. Recent research, repeated highly efficient integrated interchange points between
with similar results around the world, suggests that in AVs and rail or bus services. This will cut waiting times
the UK our cars are parked for 96% of the time (80% for the travelling public: it is worth noting that if this
at home and 16% elsewhere). With shared use, each integration saves just ten minutes of waiting time for
AV would be in use for a far greater proportion of time commuters each day, this is equivalent to reclaiming
than a typical car today. On this basis, even allowing for five working days per year for everyone.
peaks in demand and growth, the efficiency benefits on
offer would be transformational.
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On-street parking is
eliminated
The widespread introduction of driverless cars and AVs SHARED AV USE: THE KEY TO RECLAIMING
SAFER STREETS FOR EVERYONE, WITH Another direct benefit for suburban residents is that
BETTER CHILD SAFETY reduced levels of car ownership might allow more
households to convert existing garage spaces into new
If AVs become largely privately owned, one of the primary living space, bedrooms and bathrooms. Today, this form
benefits for the suburbs will be road safety. On 30mph of conversion tends to add 5-20% to the value of a
roads, almost half of drivers tend to travel above the speed typical suburban property and allows for more flexible
limit and around 15% travel at more than 35mph. use in future.
In future, driving speeds will be controlled by the
system. Long-term evidence suggests that the risk of
a fatal injury to a pedestrian hit by a car travelling at
30-40mph is around 350-500% greater than vehicles
96%
travelling below 30mph. It follows that suburban
accident rates could be reduced dramatically through
this change alone.
The Department for Transport is already considering changes needed to the Highway Code for driverless vehicles,
and Highways Englands first motorway trials for driverless cars will take place in 2017.
DEDICATED DRIVERLESS ROUTES VERSUS Mixed operation on higher speed routes introduces
MOTORWAYS WITH MIXED OPERATION some very pragmatic challenges: driverless vehicles
and AVs will behave differently to cars, and every non-
There is a key decision to make about whether to connected, non-driverless vehicle will affect all others
dedicate routes for driverless vehicles or to aim for around it. There are useful parallels with rail, where
mixed operation where todays cars and freight use the higher speed services, local services and freight are
same roadspace as well. separated wherever possible onto separate lines.
The best long term option would be fully driverless motorways, available for use by any vehicle that meets new
Highway Code standards. With every vehicle operating in driverless mode, the system could maximise
efficiency through speed, vehicle position and lane changing.
On a fully driverless route, the operation, look and feel of the route will change substantially:
Fixed, formal, marked lanes will not be needed. of interest, incident information and so on could be
Changing over the course of the day, fluid lanes delivered directly to passengers.
would allow demand and capacity to be matched
by direction. This opens up large efficiency gains Speed limits will no longer be required. All
on routes with heavily tidal flows at different times vehicles in the same lane will travel at the same
of the day. The lanes could also be narrowed as speed, as appropriate to the road layout and surface,
vehicles travelling closer together would not affect traffic volume and conditions on the route ahead.
each other.
High priority lanes or convoys could be formed,
Roadside clutter could be almost entirely effectively creating a pay-as-you-go motorway
removed. Direction signs, distances to key points with a live revenue stream, irrespective of vehicle
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ownership. Higher revenue business trips could then using the route will react to adjust speeds and their
travel faster or use the shortest available routes. optimum routes.
High occupancy lanes could benefit those who Passenger comfort would also be much
choose to share a vehicle, offering faster travel enhanced, as shockwave braking and poor driver
times or shorter travel distances to those travelling reactions would be eliminated.
more sustainably.
Roadway surface monitoring could be
Freight lanes or convoys could be formed to revolutionised with vehicles scanning the surface
match demand outside peak times, with options and reporting any issues, for example obstructions in
to consolidate driverless loads at motorway access the carriageway, live.
points. Freight vehicles would avoid the nearside
lanes, given the long distances they tend to travel, Live carriageway and roadside works would
to minimise interaction with other vehicles joining or become much safer, as driverless vehicles would
leaving the route. avoid carriageway space where works (whether
manual or automated) are underway.
Journey times will be more reliable as real-time
connected systems use live data to forecast arrival Green links and landscaping would be enhanced
times. Should any incidents occur, all vehicles alongside the strategic route network.
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Reduced isolation,
including better access to
jobs (urban and rural) for
rural residents
Strengthened rural
communities and centres,
commercially and socially
These benefits will accrue fastest through decisive and bold transitions at the
local scale, rather than tentative steps.
There are three major factors that will determine the speed of our transition to AVs:
1. Growing public trust and familiarity, with appropriate incentives for change
2. Strong public and private sector leadership
3. The right legal framework
This leads to big questions that need to be answered before the places and benefits
described can become a reality.
Within the next five years, driverless technologies will be far more commonplace and
Within the next five years, better understood. Within 15-25 years, driverless and autonomous technologies will
driverless technologies will be offer everyone a new mainstream mode of transport for everyday journeys.
far more commonplace and
better understood. What is not yet fixed is the scale of benefits on offer, and how these could accrue to
vehicle manufacturers, technology firms, others in the private sector or the
public purse.
also stand to gain from land value uplifts, road safety improvements and efficiency
benefits across the network.
Developers and land-owners can also expect to make significant gains through
the shift to AVs. Sites that are not viable due to poor transport access today could
become far more accessible and acceptable with the introduction of a tailored
AV solution.
The creation of 15-20% additional land area for development could generate
millions or even billions of pounds of new value and/or construction cost
savings. This can be secured without needing to compromise on development
quality, while securing freedom from current planning constraints around parking.
For developers who wish to retain a long-run interest in their sites, for example
through a Private Rented Sector (PRS) model, as it also seems feasible that
access to a maintained AV fleet could become part of the package available to
future residents.
All of this suggests that private sector investment, working in partnership with the
public sector, would maximise the total benefit on offer to both.
Even with a shared use system available, some will want their own AVs. There
is nothing to prevent this, although private AV-owners would have to take
MAKING BETTER PLACES: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
responsibility for maintaining them to defined standards and for finding a suitable
parking space at both ends of every trip. It also seems likely that private AV-owners
would have to pay some form of network access charge according to trips made, as
they will be reliant on the wider system to carry them from A to B.
Revenues and returns - would flow directly to the operators and maintainers of
the system in a pre-defined way. Unlike todays shadow tolling models, the rich trip-
making data generated by day-to-day AV use will allow revenues to be allocated
precisely to fund operations and maintenance, capital investment in vehicles and
infrastructure, security and similar.
1.25bn
A 100 hectare AV zone WILL AVS INTEGRATE WITH - AND WORK
development in the heart of
London could gain more than
ALONGSIDE - MASS TRANSIT?
1.25 billion in additional land
value uplift as a direct result
Under an autonomous system, journey times will become entirely predictable and
adjusted in real time, meaning that AVs offer enormous potential for cross-modal
trip integration. At the same time, future enhancements in mass transit technology
can be expected to advance the current state-of the-art, for example for journey
time information and live adjustments.
This brings forward a new potential, for example, for free-flow smart rail stations
where AVs operate on a just-in-time basis to deliver and collect people at their
chosen interchange.
300m
300 million in outer London
As such, mass transit systems would integrate with the future AV system to
operate as a powerful combination. In time, pricing and ticketing will be seamlessly
integrated with the end-to-end journey in mind. For example, AVs could carry
people from home to a rail station (if walking or cycling is not an option) and could
fulfil a similar role in getting people to their ultimate destination. To be competitive,
this combined AV/rail/AV trip would be cheaper than the same trip made by AV
alone.
of the rest of the country. The Pedestrians and cyclists will be far safer. Always-on sensors will offer better
introduction of AV zones could protection from moving vehicles in the streetscape than today.
therefore become a significant
Urban and suburban streetspace could be managed much more actively,
factor in future development
viability appraisals o pening up options for pedestrianised zones during daytime or peak hours.
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In parallel, the first steps towards this roll-out can be used to build widespread
public awareness and trust. A wide range of ideas could be rolled out within the
next five years, including:
LAST MILE TRIP-MAKING: within five years, short distance trips around
urban, suburban and more rural centres could be made by AVs, for people
and deliveries.
linkedin.com/company/wsp-in-the-uk
@WSP_PB_UK
www.wsp-pb.co.uk
Farrells are internationally recognised architect WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff have combined and
planners. We have designed award-winning are now one of the world's leading engineering
buildings and masterplans throughout the world professional services consulting firms. We bring
for over half a century. Our specialism is high together our 34,000 staff, based in more than 500
quality, mixed-use urban complexes, often based offices, across 40 countries to provide engineering
around transport interchanges. We are responsive, and multidisciplinary services in a vast array of industry
imaginative and skilled in design and have a passion sectors, with a focus on technical excellence and client
for environmental sustainability, using resources service.
wisely and creating resilient communities.
In the UK, 5,150 people provide consultancy services
At Farrells, we believe architecture and building to all aspects of the built and natural environment
design should always be informed by the context working across both the public and private sectors,
and place. We work collaboratively and our with local and national governments, local authorities,
designers engage with the evolution, layering and developers, contractors and co-professionals. The
everyday use of a place and the architecture grows combined business has been involved in many high
organically, delivered through carefully considered profile UK projects including the Shard, Crossrail,
processes starting with the big picture into the detail Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, the Bullring
design and through construction, always with our shopping centre in Birmingham, the re-development of
clients needs in mind. London Bridge Station, Manchester Metrolink and the
London Olympic & Paralympic Route Network.