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562 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 7, NO.

2, APRIL 2016

Control and Bidding Strategy for Virtual Power


Plants With Renewable Generation and Inelastic
Demand in Electricity Markets
Qianchuan Zhao, Senior Member, IEEE, Ying Shen, Student Member, IEEE, and Mingyang Li, Member, IEEE

AbstractA virtual power plant (VPP), aggregating the capac- tW , tL Standard deviations of wind generation and
ities of distributed energy resources (DER) as a single profile, demand forecast errors at time t.
can facilitate cost-efficient integrations of DERs into electricity
markets. In this paper, we investigate the control and bidding
CVW L
t , CVt Normalized standard deviations of wind genera-
problem of VPPs, which consist of renewable distributed gen- tion and demand forecast errors at time t.
erators (RDGs) and consumers with inelastic demand. As both WtU , WtC Wind power usage and curtailment at time t,
renewable generation and inelastic demand cannot be scheduled which are random variables.
and accurately forecasted, a novel coordinated strategy on renew- t Predefined upper limit of the ratio of wind power
able power usage is proposed. To minimize the cost of VPP in
the day-ahead and the balancing markets, a stochastic bilevel
usage to demand at time t in our coordinated
optimization problem is formulated with decision variables being control strategy.
renewable power usages and day-ahead bids. Due to the unimodal- A Ratio of WI and the minimum demand of cus-
ity of the objective function, the problem can be greatly simplified tomers.
and solved by local optimization algorithms. The performance of kt Absolute power limit of wind power usage at
proposed strategy has been numerically assessed and compared
with other commonly used strategies. Results show that our strat-
time t in the absolute control strategy.
egy leads to much lower expected costs than others. Moreover, it Nt Actual power exchange with market at time t,
can be combined with flexible resources to further improve the which is a random variable.
performance. Bt Day-ahead bid of power exchange with market
at time t.
Index TermsRenewable energy resources, inelastic demand,
electricity markets, virtual power plant, distributed energy t Deviation between actual power exchange and
resources. the bid at time t.
Ct Total cost in both the day-ahead market and the
balancing market at time t.
N OTATIONS Ctr Cost incurred in the balancing market at time t.
Wt , L t Actual wind power generation and demand at Ctr Imbalance cost at time t.
time t, which are random variables. st Spot price at time t.
W t , Lt Forecasted wind power generation and demand +t Up-regulation price at time t.
at time t. t Down-regulation price at time t.
W L
t , t Forecast errors of wind power generation and pt Relative difference between spot price and up-
demand at time t. regulation price at time t.
qt Relative difference between spot price and
Manuscript received January 31, 2015; revised June 28, 2015 and September down-regulation price at time t.
24, 2015; accepted November 27, 2015. Date of publication December 25, t Random vector, which is formed by random spot
2015; date of current version March 18, 2016. This work was supported in part price, random relative differences between spot
by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 61425027,
in part by the State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with price and regulation prices at time t.
Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University) under
Grants LAPS15007 and LAPS14014, in part by the National Science and
Technology Support Program (2013BAG18B00), and in part by the Innovation I. I NTRODUCTION
Joint Research Center for Cyber-Physical-Society System. Paper no. TSTE-
00059-2015.
Q. Zhao and Y. Shen are with the Center for Intelligent and
Networked Systems, Department of Automation, TNList, Tsinghua
T HE ever-increasing energy demand, pressing environ-
mental issues and economic considerations have called
for the utilization of Renewable Energy Resources (RESs), such
University, Beijing 100084, China (e-mail: zhaoqc@tsinghua.edu.cn; as wind and solar power. Many countries have set up incentive
sheny11@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn).
M. Li is with the School of Control and Computer Engineering, State policies to promote the generation from RESs, which results
Key Laboratory of Alternate Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources, in a significant growth of Renewable Distributed Generators
North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China (e-mail: (RDGs) in the past decade [1]. With the liberalization of elec-
limy@ncepu.edu.cn). tricity market, RDGs will have the opportunities to participate
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org. in energy markets and provide ancillary services to system oper-
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TSTE.2015.2504561 ators. However, due to the stochastic characteristics of energy
1949-3029 2015 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
ZHAO et al.: CONTROL AND BIDDING STRATEGY FOR VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS 563

generated from RDGs, the high risk of not meeting the accepted cost of VPP. However, it doesnt consider the optimization of
schedules makes the market participation of RDGs impossible. day-ahead bids. The bidding model represented in [18] includes
This challenge can be met by using the framework of Virtual the scheduling of power generated from RDGs, while it does
Power Plant (VPP). VPP aggregates the capacity of many not consider the balancing market, since flexible resources are
diverse Distributed Energy Resources (DER) and creates a sin- used to provide reserve capacities.
gle operating profile [2], [3]. In this way, individual DERs Being complementary to the existing research, this paper
can gain the visibility and controllability to system operators investigates the renewable control and bidding problem of VPP
and make contracts in the wholesale market. Moreover, bene- in both day-ahead market and balancing market. We propose a
fited from VPP market strategies, individual DERs can further novel control strategy on renewable power usage, which limits
optimize their positions in the market and maximize their prof- the ratio of renewable power usage to demand by a predefined
its. In Fenix Project [4], two types of VPP are defined: the upper limit. Considering the uncertainties of renewable gener-
Commercial VPP (CVPP) and the Technical VPP (TVPP). ation, demand and market prices, we formulate the problem
CVPP acts in the electricity market context. It has an aggre- of minimizing VPPs market cost as a stochastic bilevel opti-
gated profile and output which represents the cost and operating mization. This model allows the VPP operator to determine the
characteristics for the DER portfolio. CVPP is responsible for optimal renewable power usage and day-ahead sale/purchase
trading in the wholesale energy market and passing the oper- bids for each time unit of the coming day. Due to the unimodal-
ating schedules to TVPP. The impact of distribution network ity of the objective function, local optimization algorithms are
is not considered in the aggregated CVPP profile. TVPP acts used to solve the problem. In case study, our proposed strategy
in the system operation context. It is engaged in local system is compared with two commonly used strategies: (a) the greedy
managements and providing balancing and ancillary services strategy, which fully utilizes the renewable power; (b) the abso-
for transmission system operators. The influence of local net- lute strategy [19], which limits the renewable power usage to a
work on the aggregated profile and operating characteristics of predefined power value. Four typical cases with different pro-
the portfolio are included in TVPP. files of forecast renewable generation and forecast demand are
This paper investigates a CVPP which consists of RDGs used to assess their performances. Moreover, the market costs
and users with inelastic demand. It is considered as a partici- under VPP and non-VPP frameworks are evaluated and com-
pant of the day-ahead and balancing markets with the aim of pared in discussion. Furthermore, the relations between our
minimizing its cost (or maximizing its profit). An example is strategy and flexible resources, storage and elastic load, are
the distribution company, which owns both RDGs and users analyzed.
in its territory. With the development of smart grid, users can The main contribution of this paper is: 1) we propose a novel
offer a certain capacity of elastic demand to system operators. strategy on wind power usage, which provides an alternative
However, the elasticity of demand is small or even negligible way for VPPs to reduce their market costs, especially, in the
in many areas [5]. There are three reasons: (1) residential con- situations of no available flexible resources; 2) we formulate
sumers will probably not reduce their comfort and convenience the problem of minimizing VPPs market cost as a stochas-
to cut their electricity bills by a few percents; (2) commercial tic bilevel optimization, and significantly simplify the problem
customers may not have enough motivations to participate in so that it can be solved by local optimization algorithms. The
demand managements, considering the initial cost for installing advantage of proposed strategy is: 1) it can achieve a lower
communication and control devices, and the subsequent cost cost than the absolute and the greedy strategies by exploring the
for maintenance and operation; (3) industrial consumers will potential of uncertainty offset between generation and load; 2) it
not reduce their production drastically to save a small amount can substitute a certain capacity of storage or elastic load, and
of electricity costs. Therefore, it is important to consider the thus save the related initial costs, especially the expensive capi-
combination of RDGs and inelastic demand to improve the tal cost of storage; 3) it can be combined with flexible resources
penetration of renewable power in the whole grid. to further improve the performance.
In literature, researchers have adopted a variety of flexible The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section II
resources, such as dispatchable power plant, storage, and elas- describes system components and proposes a new control
tic demand, to reduce the imbalance power caused by renewable strategy. Section III formulates the optimization problem.
uncertainties. For example, scheduling dispatchable generators Section IV presents the solution methodology. Section V con-
to compensate the renewable power shortfall [6][9], deploy- ducts a numerical study. Section VI concludes this paper.
ing storage to absorb uncertainties [10][12], and adjusting
elastic demand to follow the renewable generation fluctuation
[13][16]. Since flexible resources are able to handle uncer- II. S YSTEM D ESCRIPTION AND A N EW C ONTROL
S TRATEGY
tainties, renewable power is usually treated as negative load
and fully utilized in these models. For the VPP with RDGs A CVPP which consists of distributed wind generators, dis-
and inelastic demand, reducing the market cost is a challenging tributed users, and an operator is considered in this paper. It
problem, since both renewable generation and demand cannot is connected to the external grid and can exchange power with
be scheduled and accurately forecasted. One promising way it, either import or export. The generation or demand capaci-
is curtailing some of the renewable generation to reduce the ties of DERs are aggregated to create a single VPP profile in
expensive imbalance cost. A recent work [17] has shown that the market. The active power components and the power flow
renewable energy curtailment could help reduce the imbalance directions are presented in Fig. 1, where the RDG and Load
564 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 2016

C. Wind Power Usage and Control Strategy


As analyzed in [23], [24], it is necessary to curtail some
wind generation so as to reduce the imbalance cost when there
is overproduction in the whole system. Since we do not con-
sider the storage in this work, the unused wind power is spilled.
Denote the used wind power at time t as WtU . Our proposed
coordinated strategy and two commonly used strategies, the
greedy strategy and the absolute strategy, are introduced in the
following.
1) Coordinated Strategy: Considering the stochastic
natures of both wind power generation and demand, we
propose a coordinated control strategy which limits the ratio of
wind power usage to demand at time t by a predefined upper
limit t , i.e.
Fig. 1. Configuration of the CVPP.
WtU = min(Wt , t Lt ), t [0, A], (3)
indicate the aggregated capacities of wind generation and load
demand. It is assumed that the operator can receive the fore- where A is a constant which represents the upper bound of the
casting information of demand and generation, and has a direct ratio of used wind power and load. When t is set as A, wind
control on the power outputs of wind generators. Since the power generation is always fully utilized. In a specific system,
bidding problem of CVPP is the focus of this paper, the techni- A is set as the ratio of the maximum value of wind generation
cal issues related to the distribution network operation are not and the minimum value of load which are obtained from the
included in this paper and will be studied in future. historical data.
The proposed strategy works as follows: if the actual wind
power generation exceeds t Lt , the wind power usage will be
A. Wind Generation t Lt and the excess wind power Wt t Lt will be curtailed;
Due to the uncertainties of renewable resources, the actual whereas if it is not greater than t Lt , the wind generation will
wind generation at time t is assumed to be equal to the forecast be fully used.
value W t plus a random forecast error W In general, the prediction of wind power generation has no
t , i.e.
correlation with the prediction of demand, thus Wt and Lt are
Wt = W t + W
t , (1) unrelated random variables. According to the proposed control
strategy, a positive correlation between wind power usage and
where W t is assumed to be a normally distributed variable the demand is built, thus the offset between their uncertainties
with standard deviation tW [18]. tW can be identified by the can be utilized to reduce the uncertainty of power exchange as
least-square fitting, which minimizes the difference between the well as the risk of imbalance penalty. Obviously, the smaller the
standard deviation of sample forecast, based on the actual data, control parameter t is, the stronger their positive correlation
and the modeled standard deviation. Generally, it is affected will be.
by prediction methods, forecast time horizons, meteorologi- 2) Greedy Strategy: The greedy strategy fully utilizes wind
cal conditions, etc., among which the forecast time horizon is power generation at time t, i.e.
regarded as the most critical factor. For instance, [20][22] have
demonstrated that tW is a function of the normalized predic- WtU = Wt . (4)
tion power, the forecast horizon, and the size of region where
the wind turbines are located. Note that the greedy strategy is a special case of our strategy
where the control parameter t is fixed as A.
B. Load 3) Absolute Strategy: The absolute strategy, which has
been used in the current transmission network [19], limits the
Similarly, the actual load at time t is modeled as the sum of wind power usage at time t to a predefined power value kt , i.e.
the forecast value Lt and a random forecast error Lt , i.e.

Lt = L t + L WtU = min(Wt , kt ), kt [0, WI ], (5)


t , (2)

where Lt is a normally distributed random variable with stan- where WI is the installed capacity of wind generators, kt is
dard deviation tL . The standard deviation can be estimated the control parameter. It should be pointed out that the abso-
from historical load data by the curve fitting. Moreover, cus- lute strategy is also a special case of our strategy when the
tomer behaviors under different weather conditions can also be demand forecast error is zero. Although the absolute strategy
considered to obtain a more accurate estimation. Distribution can also reduce the uncertainty of power exchange by restrict-
network loss, regarded as a part of system load, is included in ing the amount of wind power usage, it has no consideration
the load term. about the demand side.
ZHAO et al.: CONTROL AND BIDDING STRATEGY FOR VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS 565

D. Power Exchange day. Then, the deviation between the bid (Bt ) and actual power
The VPP will exchange power with the market, either as a exchange (Nt ) are settled in the balancing market.
The market cost of VPP proposing a bid Bt but actually
consumer or a producer. The actual power exchange Nt at time
t is calculated from the power balance consuming Nt at time t can be formulated as

Ct = st Bt + Ctr , (7)
Nt = Lt WtU . (6)
where st is the spot price at time t; Ctr is the cost incurred in
Positive values of Nt represents the power imports, negative
the balancing market at time t. The deviation between the actual
values of Nt represents the power exports. It is clear that the
power exchange and the bid is
uncertainty of Nt comes from the uncertainties of demand
and wind power usage. Its probability distribution depends on t = Nt Bt , (8)
the distributions of wind generation and load, and the control
strategy. To simplify the analysis, the transmission capacity and Ctr is given by
constraints are not considered in this paper. 
+
t t , t 0
Ctr = , (9)

t t , t < 0
III. P ROBLEM F ORMULATION
where the positive deviation t 0 indicates the power short-
In this section, we give a description about the electric- age, as the actual consumption is larger than the bidding
ity market structure in subsection A; formulate the market consumption (or the actual production is less than the bidding
cost of VPP in subsection B; model the uncertainty of market production); the negative deviation t < 0 indicates the power
prices in subsection C; and present the optimization problem in surplus, as the actual consumption is less than the bidding con-
subsection D. sumption (or the actual production is larger than the bidding
production); +
t and t are the regulation prices for purchas-
ing (up-regulation) and selling (down-regulation) electricity in
A. The Electricity Market
the balancing market at time t, respectively.
In European electricity pools, such as Nord pool and Dutch Eq. (7) can be reformulated as
pool, a payment for a commitment in the day-ahead market is
made at first, then any deviations are paid in the balancing mar- Ct = st Nt + Ctr , (10)
ket. In the day-ahead (spot) market, participants propose their
where
bids for each hour of the coming day before the gate closure. 
After the spot price has been settled and commitments have (+ s
t t )t , t 0
Ctr = . (11)
been made, participants are responsible for deviations from (t st )t , t < 0
their commitments made in the day-ahead market. Any devi-
Eq. (10) means that the market cost of VPP is the combination
ation will be settled in the balancing (regulation) market via the
of the cost for purchasing actual power exchange Nt at spot
regulation price. If the actual consumption is more than (or pro-
price and the cost for regulation. In the following part of paper,
duction is less than) the commitment, the power shortage will
Ctr is called the imbalance cost.
be purchased in balancing market at the up-regulation price,
which is usually higher than the spot price. If the consumption
is less than (or production is more than) the commitment, the C. Price Uncertainty
surplus energy will be sold at the down-regulation price, which
The regulation prices can be calculated as proportions of the
is usually lower than the spot price. Therefore, power deviations
spot price for that time unit, i.e.
normally results in an additional cost for participants.
As the interval between the gate closure and the begin- +
t = (1 + pt )t
s
, (12)
ning of power delivery is at least 12 hours, participants with t = (1 qt )st
unpredictable fluctuation in production or consumption usually
have to pay more regulation costs than others. This encourages where pt and qt are the relative differences between the spot
them to be more strategic in their ways of bidding. By using price and the up-regulation and down-regulation prices.
strategies, the extra costs needed to counter unpredictable fluc- The stochastic characteristics of market prices are mod-
tuations can be limited so that the profits in the market can be eled by a random vector t , which is formed by random spot
increased. price and random relative differences between spot price and
regulation prices, i.e.

B. VPP Market Cost t = [st , pt , qt ], (13)

It is assumed that the VPP participates into the two- where st , pt and qt are assumed to be independent random
settlement electricity market as a price-taker player, since its variables [25]. The operator can obtain the forecast distributions
economic entity is too small to affect the market clearing price. of market prices by employing forecasting techniques, which
In the day-ahead market, the VPP submits the hourly bid Bt have been broadly described in [26], [27]. As the VPP is a price
of consumption (Bt > 0) or production (Bt < 0) for the next taker, market prices are independent of VPPs power exchange.
566 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 2016

D. CVPP Control Decision and Bidding the low-level optimization in subsection B; analyze the high-
We assume that the CVPP owns both the generators and level optimization and propose an algorithm in subsection C;
and analyze the effect of wind generation and demand forecast
users, and acts in the interest of the whole in the market.
Therefore, the objective is to minimize the expected total cost errors on VPPs market costs in subsection D.
of CVPP in the market. Based on the information of wind gen-
eration, demand and market prices, the operator should decide A. Equivalent Form of the Original Optimization Problem
the control parameter in control strategy and the correspond-
ing day-ahead bid for each hour of the coming day. Since the The optimization problem formulated in (14)(17) is equiva-
optimal bid can only be determined after the control decision lent to:

is given, the problem of minimizing expected cost at time t is
formulated as a stochastic bilevel optimization problem, i.e. min min Q (t , Bt ) =E(Nt ) + pt (x Bt )fNt (x)dx
t Bt Bt
 Bt
min min Et Q(t , Bt , t ) (14)
t Bt + qt (Bt x)fNt (x)dx,
WI
subject to (20)
t [0, A] (15) subject to
Bt WI (16) t [0, A] (21)
where Bt WI (22)
Q(t , Bt , t ) =E(Ct ) where pt and q t are the expectations of pt and qt , respectively.

(For the detailed derivation, please see Appendix A). According
=st E(Nt ) + pt st (x Bt )fNt (x)dx
Bt to the equivalent optimization problem, we can know that
 Bt the optimal decisions essentially depend on the relative dif-
+ qt st (Bt x)fNt (x)dx (17) ferences between spot price and regulation prices, rather than
WI the absolute values of spot price and regulation prices. In the
where Et denotes the expectation with respect to t , fNt is the objective function (20), the first term accounts for the expected
probability density function of Nt . Since the model is hourly power exchange, the second and third terms account for the
based and there is no coupling between adjacent hours, the normalized imbalance penalty for power deviations.
optimization problem for each hour is solved independently.
It is noted that when the absolute strategy is adopted, t in the
optimization problem will be replaced by kt , and the constraint B. Solution of the Low-Level Optimization
(15) will be replaced by kt [0, WI ]; when the greedy strategy In the low-level optimization of (20), the decision variable
is used, the bilevel optimization degenerates to the low-level Bt only appears in the second and third term of the objective
optimization with the single decision variable of the bid. function. Therefore, under a given control decision t , the opti-
Remark : We provide a way to extend this CVPP model mal bid Bt is the bid that minimizes the normalized imbalance
to a TVPP model. As mentioned in the introduction section, penalty, which can be given by
TVPP considers the real-time influence of distribution network
pt
on DER aggregated profile. Therefore, AC network constraints Bt (t ) = FNt 1 ( ) (23)
should be added. Without loss of generality, a mathematical for- pt + q t
mulation (18) is used to implicitly represent a variety of power where FNt is the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of
flow constraints [28]. The limit of bus voltage is shown by (19). Nt [29]. Eq. (23) means that the optimal bid, as a function
Gt 0, (18) of t , is a particular quantile of the probability distribution
i of power exchange. Since the low-level optimization admits a
Vmin Vti i
Vmax , (19)
unique minimum over the range of possible bid levels, local
i i
where Gt is the power flow equation at time t; Vmin , Vmax are optimization methods are sufficient to solve it.
the minimum and maximum voltage limits of bus i.
This work, however, focuses on the trading of CVPP with
C. Solution of the High-Level Optimization
the two-settlement markets, and exploits the potential of mar-
ket cost reduction when applying our coordinated strategy. To Substitute the optimal bid (23) into (20), and the optimization
provide insights and lay theoretical foundations for the bidding problem can be rewritten as
problem, we focus on the CVPP model in this paper, since con-
sidering the influence of network will increase the complexity min Q (t , Bt (t )) (24)
t
of problem significantly.
subject to t [0, A]. Intuitively, Q (t , Bt (t )) is composed
of two parts: the expected power exchange and the minimum
IV. S OLUTION M ETHODOLOGY imbalance penalty with the optimal bid. In order to determine
In this section, we present the equivalent form of original the optimal control decision t , we analyze the two terms of the
optimization problem in subsection A; give the solution of objective function in (24) in the following:
ZHAO et al.: CONTROL AND BIDDING STRATEGY FOR VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS 567

Algorithm 1. Optimizing the bid and the control parameter in


coordinated (or absolute) strategy
Input: The probability distributions of Wt , Lt , pt , qt
Output: t , Bt
1 Set t,0 0, Q0 0
2 do
3 n = n + 1;
4 Linear Search t,n in the range of [0, A];
p
5 Bt,n FNt,n 1 ( p+q );
6 Objective function value Qn Q (t,n , Bt,n );
7 while |Qn Q n 1| > ;
Fig. 2. The profiles of expected power exchange and minimum imbalance 8 t t,n ;
penalty. 9 Bt Bt,n ;
10 return t , Bt ;

1) Expected Power Exchange: The expected power


exchange E(Nt ) is a monotonically decreasing function of
range of t . Therefore, local optimization algorithms can be
control decision t , according to Eq. (6) and Theorem 4.1.
used to solve the problem (For example, Golden section search,
Theorem 4.1: Assume that Lt follows Normal distribution.
Interior-point methods). We briefly describe our algorithm in
The expected wind power usage E(WtU ) is a monotonically
Algorithm 1, where the linear search in the MATLAB optimiza-
increasing function of control decision t , if the probability
tion tool box is used. Note that this algorithm can also be used
distributions of Wt and Lt are given.
to solve the optimal control parameter kt and the optimal bid
Proof: Please see Appendix B.  under the absolute strategy.
Although Theorem 4.1 is established under the assumption
of Lt following Normal distribution, it is also valid for other
distributions types as long as they satisfy F
(x,)
< 0, which is
a general property for many distribution types, such as Normal, D. Effect of Forecast Errors on VPPs Market Cost
Weibull, Gamma distributions. As an example, the profile of Renewable generation like wind is stochastic and difficult to
E(Nt ) is illustrated by the blue curve in Fig. 2 (data set as predict. Similarly, inelastic demand including lights are hard to
Section V Case I t = 1). predict at a low aggregation level. It is necessary to understand
2) Minimum Imbalance Penalty: The minimum imbalance the impact of wind generation and load forecast errors on VPPs
penalty is an initially decreasing and then rapidly increasing market costs. We uniformly use the normalized standard devi-
function of the control parameter t . To give an example, its ations of forecast errors, which are denoted by coefficient of
profile is shown by the green curve in Fig. 2 (data set as above). variation (CV), i.e.
At the initial point of t = 0, this penalty is only induced from
the demand forecast errors. In the range of [0, 0.63], with the CVW W
t = t /W t (25)
increase of t , the penalty decreases instead of increases, which
results from the high positive correlation between the demand CVL L
t = t /Lt (26)
and the wind power usage. On the right side of 0.63, the penalty
increases with t , since the positive correlation decreases and
the uncertainty of wind power usage increase. In the latter We have gotten two theorems as follows:
part of the range, wind power is almost fully utilized, thus the Theorem 4.2: Assume that Wt follows Normal distribution.
penalty tends to its maximum value. E(WtU ) is a monotonically decreasing function of CVW t , if W t ,
According to the above features, we can know that there Lt , CVLt , and t are given.
is a tradeoff between the two parts of the objective function Theorem 4.3: Assume that Lt follows Normal distribution.
in (24). As shown in Fig. 2, if all generated wind power is E(WtU ) is a monotonically decreasing function of CVL t , if W t ,
fully utilized, the expected power exchange reaches its mini- Lt , CVWt , and t are given.
mum value while the minimum imbalance penalty reaches its Proof: Please see Appendix B. 
maximum value, whereas if all generated wind power is cur- Intuitively, as the forecasting accuracy of wind generation
tailed, the minimum imbalance penalty reaches a relatively or demand decreases, the wind power usage will decrease and
small value while the expected power exchange reaches its the VPP will purchase more power exchange from the mar-
maximum value. Therefore, when deciding the control param- ket. Meanwhile, it is obvious that the imbalance power and the
eter t in the coordinated control strategy, the operator should corresponding minimum imbalance penalty also increase with
make a compromise between these two costs so as to reach the the uncertainty of wind generation or demand. Consequently,
minimum total cost. the total cost raises with the increase of CVW L
t or CVt . In
W L
Based on the above analyses and a large amount of numer- Section V, the impacts of CVt and CVt on the performances
ical experiments, we have observed that the objective function of different strategies will be further investigated by numerical
in (24) is unimodal and the optimum is unique over the finite examples.
568 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 2016

Fig. 5. Normalized standard deviation of wind generation/demand forecast


Fig. 3. The profiles of forecast wind generation in strong and weak wind
errors as an increasing function of prediction time horizon.
conditions.

simulate the market situation. Since the optimal decisions do


not depend on the value of spot price, which has been analyzed
in Section IV-A, we set the spot price in each hour as 30$/MWh.
The relative difference pt is set to be uniformly distributed in
[0.1, 0.8] and qt is set to be uniformly distributed in [0.8, 1.5].
The gate closure in the day-ahead market is at 11:00 for the
coming day.

B. Comparison With Other Strategies

Fig. 4. The profiles of forecast demand in winter and summer.


In this section, the performances of the coordinated strat-
egy, the absolute strategy and the greedy strategy are assessed
and compared in the above four typical cases. For each hour
V. C ASE S TUDY
of each case, we solve the optimization problems under these
In this section, we describe the case in subsection A; present three strategies, respectively. Summing the optimal results of
the comparison results in subsection B; compare the VPP and 24 hours gives the optimal results for each case, which is shown
the non-VPP frameworks, and analyze the relations between in Table I. (For the detailed solutions of each hour, please see
our strategy and storage as well as elastic load in subsection C. Table IV in Appendix C). We can observe that both the coor-
dinated strategy and the absolute strategy result in statistically
lower total costs than the greedy strategy for all cases. It demon-
A. Case Description strates that curtailing some wind power can reduce the total
The VPP presented in this case study consists of distributed cost in the market. Compared with the other two strategies,
users and distributed wind generators with total capacity of the coordinated strategy leads to higher bids and higher costs
20MW. The time unit is one hour. To better illustrate the perfor- in the day-ahead market, but it results in much lower costs
mance of different strategies, four typical cases with different in balancing market. Therefore, the total cost under coordi-
profiles of forecast wind generation and forecast demand are nated strategy is lowest. Moreover, the wind power utilization
used: of coordinated strategy is no less than 93%, which is accept-
(I) strong wind and summer load; able for VPP to comply with some renewable energy utilization
(II) strong wind and winter load; regulations (e.g. Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs)).
(III) weak wind and summer load; To further compare the absolute strategy and the coordi-
(IV) weak wind and winter load. nated strategy, we plot the cost differences between the abso-
The forecast wind generation is obtained from the data pro- lute/coordinated strategy and the greedy strategy for each case
vided by BPA [30]. The data has been scaled down such that in Fig. 6. It can be observed that either the absolute strategy or
the installed capacity is 20MW and is shown in Fig. 3. The the coordinated strategy saves more costs in Case I, II than in
forecast demand are the average values of residential demand Case III, IV. Compared with the wind generation under weak
in the Southern California Edison (SCE) service area during wind in Case III and IV, the wind generation under strong
the winter and summer of 2014 [31], which are shown in Fig. 4. wind in Case I and II has higher uncertainties and induces
The normalized standard deviations of demand and wind gen- larger imbalance costs. Therefore, the potential of market cost
eration forecast errors are increasing functions of the prediction reduction by using control strategies is large in Case I and II.
time horizon, which are depicted in Fig. 5. Since the wind gen- Moreover, the cost savings brought by our strategy are 3 6
eration in a small area has less smoothing effect than the one times higher than that of the absolute strategy. Fig. 7 shows the
in a large area [22], the wind generation forecast error is set cost difference for each hour of each case. It can be observed
to be relatively large. According to the historical data of wind that the cost saving brought by the absolute strategy has a sim-
generation and demand, the parameter A in Eq. (15) is set as 3. ilar profile with the forecast wind generation shown in Fig. 3,
The historical data of spot, up-regulation, down-regulation that is, the greater cost saving occurs during the hour of higher
prices of Dutch electricity pool provided by [32] are used to wind power generation level. In contrast with this, the cost
ZHAO et al.: CONTROL AND BIDDING STRATEGY FOR VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS 569

TABLE I
O PTIMAL R ESULTS U NDER G REEDY (G), A BSOLUTE (A) AND
C OORDINATED (C) S TRATEGIES FOR THE F OUR C ASES (24 HOURS )
(N EGATIVE B IDS I NDICATE THE B IDS OF P RODUCTION . N EGATIVE C OSTS
I NDICATE THE I NCOMES F ROM THE M ARKET. D-M IS THE DAY-A HEAD
M ARKET. B-M IS THE BALANCING M ARKET.)

Fig. 7. Cost difference between Absolute strategy (A) /Coordinated strategy


Fig. 6. Cost differences between Absolute strategy (A) /Coordinated strategy (C) and Greedy strategy (G) for each hour.
(C) and Greedy strategy (G) for four cases.

saving brought by the coordinated strategy is affected by both


forecast wind generation and forecast demand levels.
The above observations can be explained by illustrating the
influence of generation and demand levels on the cost saving in
one hour, as shown in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9. The normalized stan-
dard deviations of wind generation and load, CVtW and CVtL ,
are fixed as 0.25 and 0.1. The cost savings are calculated from
the optimal costs of the used strategy under each combination of
generation and demand levels. As we can see in Fig. 8, the cost
saving of the absolute strategy almost totally depends on the
wind generation level. In the range of high demand level, the
cost savings are negligible, since the relatively large demand
uncertainty can not be handled by the absolute strategy. It can Fig. 8. Cost difference between Absolute strategy (A) and Greedy strategy
explain why the performance of absolute strategy in Case I is (G) vs. forecast demand and forecast wind generation for one hour (CVtW =
0.25, CVtL = 0.1).
worse than that in Case II. Fig. 9 shows that the cost saving
brought by coordinated strategy increases with both generation
level and demand level. The maximum cost saving occurs when a limit with the increase of generation level. That is because
the demand level is little larger than the generation level. In the the relatively small uncertainty of the low demand can offset a
demand range of [12, 20] of Fig. 9, the cost saving tends to limited amount of uncertainties from the generation side.
570 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 2016

Fig. 9. Cost difference between Coordinated strategy (C) and Greedy strategy
Fig. 10. Cost difference between Absolute strategy (A) and Greedy strategy
(G) vs. forecast demand and forecast wind generation for one hour (CVtW =
(G) vs. normalized standard deviations of demand and wind generation forecast
0.25, CVtL = 0.1).
errors for one hour (W t = 10, Lt = 12).

Comparing Fig. 8 and Fig. 9, it is clear that the performance


of coordinated strategy is much better than that of absolute
strategy in almost the entire space. Moreover, according to
Eq. (3) and (5), we can know that the smaller the demand uncer-
tainty is, the closer the coordinated and the absolute strategies
will be. Therefore, in the scenarios of low demand level and
high generation level, which appear in Case II t = 1 3, 14
16, the differences between the coordinated strategy and the
absolute strategy are relatively small. In other scenarios, our
strategy makes substantial improvements in reducing the VPPs
cost.
As the normalized standard deviations increase with the pre-
diction horizon, it is necessary to further analyze the effects
of CVtW and CVtL on the cost savings of these two strate-
gies. To give an example, Lt and Wt are fixed as 12 and 10, Fig. 11. Cost difference between Coordinated strategy (C) and Greedy strategy
respectively. The cost difference between the absolute strategy (G) vs. normalized standard deviations of demand and wind generation forecast
and the greedy strategy for one hour is shown in Fig. 10. The errors for one hour (W t = 10, Lt = 12).
result for the coordinated strategy is shown in Fig. 11. Cost sav-
ings are calculated from the optimal costs of the used strategy.
Comparing these two figures, we can see that under each com- As shown in Table II, the bid of RDGs/Users simply depends
bination of normalized standard deviations, the performance on the generation/demand situation and has no correlation with
of our strategy is much better than that of the absolute strat- the other. Compared with the results of VPP in Table I, the
egy. Moreover, with the increase of prediction horizon, which summed day-ahead market cost of RDGs and users is lower,
implies the increase of both CVtW and CVtL , the cost saving but their summed balancing market cost is much higher. Fig. 12
of our strategy increases, while that of the absolute strategy shows the cost differences between the non-VPP and the VPP
may decrease. It demonstrates that the coordinated strategy is bidding. It is clear that applying the framework of VPP reduce
more capable of handling the large forecast errors due to a long the overall cost of RDGs and users for all cases, especially
prediction time horizon. for Case I where the reduction is as high as 1000$. Assuming
that these four typical cases appear with equal probability, we
present the expected 24-hour costs under non-VPP and VPP
C. Discussion frameworks in Table III. The results show that the expected cost
1) Compared With the Non-VPP Framework: To demon- saving is as high as 8.77%. It demonstrates that coordinated
strate the advantage of VPP framework, we compare the costs aggregation of DERs leads to economies of scale and lower
of VPP and non-VPP. In non-VPP framework, users and gen- costs in the market, which is the value of VPP framework.
erators participate in the market as independent entities and Moreover, we further analyze the influence of generation and
provide their own day-ahead bids separately. We simulate the demand levels as well as forecasting uncertainties on the results.
separately bidding in the above four typical cases. The optimal Fig. 13 and Fig. 14 show that the cost saving increases with
bids of RDGs and users are obtained by Eq. (23), where the both the forecasting uncertainties and the scales of generation
CDF of power exchange is replaced by the CDF of wind gen- and load. This illustrates that for larger scales of intermittent
eration and demand, respectively. Summing the optimal results renewable generation and fluctuant load, the benefits from VPP
of 24 hours gives the optimal results for each case. framework will be more significant.
ZHAO et al.: CONTROL AND BIDDING STRATEGY FOR VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS 571

TABLE II
O PTIMAL R ESULTS FOR S EPARATELY B IDDING IN N ON -VPP
F RAMEWORK (N EGATIVE B IDS I NDICATE THE B IDS OF P RODUCTION .
N EGATIVE C OSTS I NDICATE THE I NCOMES F ROM THE M ARKET. D-M
IS THE DAY-A HEAD M ARKET. B-M IS THE BALANCING M ARKET.)

Fig. 13. Cost difference between Non-VPP and VPP with coordinated strategy
vs. normalized standard deviations of demand and wind generation forecast
errors for one hour (W t = 10, Lt = 12).

Fig. 14. Cost difference between Non-VPP and VPP with coordinated strategy
vs. demand and wind generation levels for one hour (CVW
t = 0.25, CVt =
L

Fig. 12. Cost differences between Non-VPP and VPP with Greedy/ 0.1).
Coordinated strategy for four cases.

TABLE III
E XPECTED C OSTS OF N ON -VPP AND VPP W ITH C OORDINATED
S TRATEGY (N EGATIVE C OSTS I NDICATE THE I NCOMES F ROM THE
M ARKET )

2) Relation With Storage: As storage technologies are


widely investigated in improving the renewable power inte- Fig. 15. Cost vs. storage capacities for Case I.
gration, we numerically study the relation of our strategy and
storage in this part. Case I (strong wind and summer load), which is the most chal-
a) Comparison: Based on the greedy strategy of wind lenging case with large wind generation and demand forecast
power usage, a storage is used to correct the power deviation errors. The result is plotted by the circle-line in Fig. 15. It can
in the balancing market. The energy efficiency of storage is set be observed that the performance of our strategy is equivalent to
to be 75%. The maximum charge/discharge rating of storage that of a storage with capacity 0.8MWh. According to the char-
is set to be the value of capacity per hour, which implies that acteristic parameters of present storage technologies [33], the
the storage can be charged to the maximum capacity or dis- capital cost of a storage with 0.8MWh is higher than 320000$
charged to empty in each hour. The VPPs market costs under (the unit capital cost is not less than 400$/KWh). It illustrates
different storage capacities have been simulated in the above that when a VPP does not have its own storage, our coordinated
four typical cases. The most significant difference between the strategy can substitute a certain capacity of storage and avoid
performance of our strategy and that of the storage appears in a high capital cost. Therefore, it is an effective alternative way
572 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 2016

Fig. 16. Cost (including the average daily capital cost of storage) vs. storage Fig. 17. Cost vs. elastic load percentage (capacity) for Case II.
capacities for Case I.

generation is relatively large. The result is shown in Fig. 17,


where the horizontal axis presents the hourly elastic load per-
for VPPs to reduce their cost in the market. Moreover, VPP
centage as well as the corresponding total capacity of elastic
operators might like to allocate the investment cost of storage
load in 24 hours. We can observe that the coordinated strategy
into each operational day. When adding the daily capital cost of
achieves the same performance as the elastic load of 3.6MWh.
storage to the above cost, the result is shown by the circle-line
It should be noted that two additional costs caused by load man-
of Fig. 16 (the lifetime of storage is set to be 10 years). It can
agements are not included in the simulation: the cost associated
be seen that the VPPs cost firstly decreases and then increases
with users loss due to demand curtailment; the installation cost
with the capacity, and the most effective capacity is 2WMh.
of necessary control devices in the demand side. This implies
Since the cycling limitation and the maintenance cost of stor-
that the actual saving brought by elastic load is less than the
age are not included in the simulation, the result shown above
results shown in the figure. For VPPs without or with very little
are the upper bound of storage performance.
load elasticity, our coordinated strategy is a valuable alternative,
b) Combination: On the basis of the coordinated strat-
since it can effectively reduce the market cost as well as avoid
egy, the storage is used to correct the remaining power deviation
the additional costs caused by demand side managements.
in the balancing market. The setting of storage is the same as
b) Combination: Due to the limited adjustment capabil-
above. As shown by the plus-line in Fig. 15, adding a storage
ity in the demand side, it is very beneficial to combine the
will further reduce the VPPs market cost, while the marginal
available elastic load with our strategy. As shown by compar-
benefit of storage decreases with the increase of storage capac-
ing the circle-line and the plus-line in Fig. 17, the extra saving
ity. When adding the daily capital cost of storage to this cost,
brought by the combination is larger than 100$. It demonstrates
the result in shown by the plus-line in Fig. 16. We can observe
that our strategy is a friendly and compatible approach, that is,
that installing a storage with capacity above 1.5MWh is uneco-
it can be combined with available flexible resources in VPP and
nomic, since the storage will cause more costs than benefits.
achieve better performance.
The most effective capacity is about 0.75WMh, which brings
an additional cost saving about 30$.
3) Relation With Elastic Load: Elastic load is another
option for handling the forecast uncertainties of renewable gen- VI. C ONCLUSIONS
eration and load. A wide variety of elastic load technologies This paper develops a novel control and bidding strategy for
have been proposed in existing literature. To give a general anal- VPPs consisting of renewable power generators and inelastic
ysis, we consider that a given percentage of load is elastic and demand. The problem of minimizing the VPPs cost in both
can be directly controlled by the VPP operator. In the balancing the day-ahead market and the balancing market is formulated
market, if the actual power consumption is larger than the bid as a bilevel stochastic optimization and solved by local search
(i.e. power shortage) in one hour, the VPP operator will curtail algorithms. Compared with other two strategies, the proposed
the elastic load of this hour to correct the deviation. According strategy could achieve a much lower cost, and it is more capa-
to the related research [5], the elasticity of demand is small in ble of handling the situations with high forecast uncertainties in
general cases. As considered in [18], the reasonable range of both supply and demand sides. Moreover, our strategy can sub-
elastic load percentage is set to be [0%, 5%]. The VPPs market stitute a certain capacity of flexible resources and avoid their
costs under different elastic load percentages have been simu- additional capital costs. Furthermore, it can be combined with
lated for the four typical cases. Similarly, the comparison and other technologies to further improve the performance.
combination simulations are based on the greedy strategy and In the future work, the network operation aspects of TVPP
the coordinated strategy, respectively. will be studied, based on the analyses of CVPP in the mar-
a) Comparison: The most significant difference between ket. It is also important to investigate the joint optimization
the performance of our strategy and that of elastic load appears of our strategy and other technologies, such as storages, elas-
in Case II (strong wind and winter load), where the capacity tic demand, fast-responding generators, the combined heat and
of elastic load is relatively small while the uncertainty of wind power, etc. The design of trading principles and contracts in
ZHAO et al.: CONTROL AND BIDDING STRATEGY FOR VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS 573

the VPPs internal market is another open area. It is critical to Theorem B.1: Assume that Lt follows Normal distribution.
define a reasonable pricing mechanism in the internal market in E(WtU ) is a monotonically increasing function of control deci-
order to fairly allocate the market revenues to DERs. sion t , if the probability distributions of Wt and Lt are
given.
A PPENDIX A Proof: In Lemma 1, let X, Y be Wt , t Lt respectively,
T HE E QUIVALENT F ORM OF O RIGINAL O BJECTIVE then Z will be corresponding to WtU . Denote the random
F UNCTION variable Lt by Y . 
Following the assumption that Lt obeys normal distribution
The objective function in the original optimization problem Y N (Y , (Y )2 ), we have Y N (Y , (Y )2 ), i.e.
can be given as:
 z t  z
Y
Et Q(t , Bt , t ) 1 2( Y
1 2 2
   FY (z, )= e Y
)2
dt= Y
es ds.
Y 2
= Q(t , Bt , t ) fst pt qt (st , pt , qt )dqt dpt dst
st pt qt
   
The theorem follows since
= [st E(Nt ) + st pt (x Bt )fNt (x)dx 
dE(Z) FY (z, )
st pt qt Bt = [FX (z) 1] dz > 0
 Bt
d 0
+ st qt (Bt x)fNt (x)dx]fst (st )fpt (pt )fqt (qt )
WI
where
dqt dpt dst FY (z, ) z ( 2Y
z
)2
 = e Y <0
= st [E(Nt ) + pt (x Bt )fNt (x)dx
22 Y
Bt
 Bt in z (0, ) and
+ qt (Bt x)fNt (x)dx],
WI [FX (z) 1] < 0.
(27)
thus the equivalent objective function is:
The theorem is also valid for other distributions types as
min min Et Q(t , Bt , t ) = min min Q (t , Bt ), (28)
t Bt t Bt long as they satisfy F
(x,)
< 0, which is a general property
where for many distribution types, such as Normal, Weibull, Gamma
 distributions. The proof for Gamma distribution is provided

Q (t , Bt ) = E(Nt ) + pt (x Bt )fNt (x)dx below.
Bt For Gamma distribution with parameters k and . We have
 Bt Y Gamma(kY , Y ), Y Gamma(kY , Y ). The CDF of
+ qt (Bt x)fNt (x)dx. (29) Y can be expressed as
WI

(kY , z/(Y ))
FY (z, ) = , z (0, +)
A PPENDIX B (kY )
P ROOF OF THE T HEOREM 4.1, 4.2 AND 4.3
then
Lemma B.1: Let
FY (z, ) zk
Z = min(X, Y ) = ez/(Y ) < 0.
(kY )k k+1 Y
where X, Y are two independent random variables. Then the
expectation of the random variable Z is given by Theorem B.2: Assume that Wt follows Normal distribution.

E(Z) = 0 [1 FX (z)][1 FY (z)]dz E(WtU ) is a monotonically decreasing function of CVW
t , if W t ,
0 Lt , CVL
[FX (z) + FY (z) FX (z) FY (z)]dz t , and t are given.
Proof: In Lemma 1, let X, Y be Wt , t Lt respectively,
where FX , FY are CDF of X and Y . then Z will be corresponding to WtU . 
Proof: Since the distribution of Z is Following the assumption that Wt obeys normal distribution
X N (X , (X )2 ), we have
FZ (z) = FX (z) + FY (z) FX (z) FY (z),
 zX

the expectation of Z can be given as 1 2X 2
FX (z) = es ds.
 0
E(Z) = 0 [1 FZ (z)]dz [FZ (z)]dz

= 0 [1 FX (z)][1 FY (z)]dz
0 
[FX (z) + FY (z) FX (z) FY (z)]dz. dE(Z) dE(Z) FX (z, X )
= X = X [FY (z)1]dz
 dCVX dX X
574 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 7, NO. 2, APRIL 2016

where ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
FX (z, X ) z X z
( 2X )2 The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers
= 2
e X . and the editor for their comments which are extremely helpful
X 2X
for improving the quality of this paper.
The theorem follows since
 z
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Qianchuan Zhao (M06SM08) received the B.E.


degree in automatic control, the B.S. degree in
applied mathematics, and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees
in control theory and its applications from Tsinghua
University, Beijing, China, in 1992 and 1996, respec-
tively. He was a Visiting Scholar at Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, and Harvard
University, Cambridge, MA, USA, in 2000 and 2002,
respectively. He was a Visiting Professor at Cornell
University, Ithaca, NY, USA, in 2006. He is cur-
rently a Professor and an Associate Director of the
Department of Automation, Center for Intelligent and Networked Systems,
Tsinghua University. He has authored over 80 research papers in peer-reviewed
journals and conferences. His research interests include control and optimiza-
tion of complex networked systems with applications in smart buildings, smart
grid, and manufacturing automation. He is an Associate Editor of the Journal
of Optimization Theory and Applications and the IEEE T RANSACTIONS ON
C ONTROL OF N ETWORK S YSTEMS. He was an Associate Editor of the IEEE
T RANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION S CIENCE AND E NGINEERING. He serves
as the Chair of the Technical Committee on smart buildings of the IEEE
Robotics and Automation Society. He was the recipient of the China National
Nature Science Award for the project Optimization Theory and Optimization
for Discrete Event Dynamic System in 2009.

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