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Edited by John H. Seinfeld, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, and approved May 9, 2017 (received for review November 28, 2016)
We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of albedo via solar radiation management (SRM) (1318); and
convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the (v) increased forcing of the climate by continued CO2 and CH4
United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; emissions, from the extraction, transport, and combustion of fossil
(ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine estab- fuels, that has the potential to increase the frequency and intensity
lished in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; of storm systems over the Great Plains in summer (1922).
(iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over The objectives of this paper are to: (i) show the frequency and
the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural var- depth of convective penetration into the stratosphere of con-
EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC,
amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant hal- using observations from the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD)
ogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar weather radar system; (ii) present available inorganic chlorine
observations of 2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach within the same vertical coordinate system as the NEXRAD
the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled observations; (iii) present high-accuracy, high resolution in situ
with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid hetero- observations of the temperature structure of the lower stratosphere
geneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form over the United States in summer that clarify the importance of
on ubiquitous sulfatewater aerosols; this, in turn, engages the ele- spatial and structural variability and gravity wave propagation on
ment of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the the heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free
central United States in summer based upon the same reaction net- radical form; and (iv) use the observations of convective penetration
work that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summer-
heights, elevated water vapor, and temperatures as inputs to the
time development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United
Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) 2D model (10,
States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of
2326), which calculates concentrations of the rate-limiting ClO,
retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for
BrO, HO2, and NO2 radicals that control the catalytic loss rate of
catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of
ozone and the resulting fractional decrease in ozone.
UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding
The context for the analysis presented here concerns the issue
the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to in-
of human health associated with the remarkable sensitivity of
creased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4.
humans to small increases in UV dosage that initiate skin cancer.
In particular, diagnosed cases of basal cell and squamous cell
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stratospheric ozone climate change | UV radiation human health effects | carcinoma have reached 3.5 million annually in the United States
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convection water vapor
alone (2731). The analysis presented here of the sensitivity of
United States in summer. In particular, the coupling of five factors, Stratospheric ozone is one of the most delicate aspects of
when considered in specific combinations, define why the central habitability on the planet. Removal of stratospheric ozone over
United States in summer represents a unique case, in the global the polar regions in winter/spring has established the vulner-
context, for the risk of regional ozone loss. These factors, depicted ability of ozone to halogen catalytic cycles. Elevated ClO con-
in Fig. 1, include (i) development of severe storm systems over the centrations engendered, in part, by heterogeneous catalytic
Great Plains of the United States with convective cores that extend conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiq-
well above the tropopause, leading to the injection of water vapor uitous sulfatewater aerosols, govern the rate of ozone re-
moval. We report here observations of the frequency and
and possibly halogen radical precursors deep into the stratosphere
depth of penetration of convectively injected water vapor into
(15); (ii) anticyclonic flow in the stratosphere over the United
the stratosphere, triggered by severe storms that are specific to
States in summer, associated with the North American monsoon
the central United States in summer, and model their effect on lower
(NAM), that serves to increase the retention time of the con-
stratospheric ozone. This effect implies, with observed temperatures,
vectively injected species over the United States (6, 7); (iii) in-
increased risk of ozone loss over the Great Plains in summer.
creased probability for the catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine
(primarily HCl and ClONO2, hereafter Cly) to free radical form Author contributions: J.G.A. designed research; J.G.A. and D.K.W. performed research;
(ClO) on ubiquitous sulfate aerosols due to a combination of am- D.K.W., K.P.B., C.R.H., J.B.S., D.M.W., D.S.S., J.E.K., S.S.L., J.A.D., and S.C.W. analyzed data;
bient temperature perturbations and localized water vapor en- J.G.A. wrote the paper; K.P.B. and C.R.H. contributed NEXRAD data; and J.B.S., D.M.W.,
hancements, which can accelerate the catalytic removal of ozone in and D.S.S. contributed in situ data.
the lower stratosphere (2, 8); (iv) potential for future sulfate en- The authors declare no conflict of interest.
hancements from volcanic eruptions (912) or overt addition by the This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
geoengineering approach of reducing solar forcing by increasing 1
To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: anderson@huarp.harvard.edu.
tion mass spectrometer (CIMS) HCl instrument during the NASA AVE mission
in June 2005 are included for comparison with the inferred HCl. Data ac-
quired between 30N to 50N and 80W to 105W are shown. Also plotted
are bin-averaged measurements of HCl acquired by MLS as a function of
potential temperature, calculated from simultaneous measurements of
temperature at the 100- and 68-hPa pressure levels (green squares). The
Fig. 3. (A) The geographic distribution of deep stratospheric convective dashed green lines indicate the range 1 SD from the mean for each 20 K
injection from the NEXRAD weather radar 3D mapping of storms in the potential temperature bin. The MLS satellite data were selected to be be-
summer (MayAugust 20042013) that penetrate more than 2 km above the tween 30N to 50N and 80W to 105W for JuneAugust from 2004 to 2016.
local tropopause. (B) The vertical distribution of inferred HCl as a function of (C) The total number of storms that penetrate more than 2 km into the
potential temperature in the stratosphere over the United States in summer stratosphere over the central United States in MayAugust (black) and June
for two latitude bins (blue and red points), where HCl is calculated using in August (red) from 2004 to 2013 as a function of potential temperature. The
situ O3 data from the NASA SEAC4RS mission. In situ measurements acquired calculated HCl mixing ratio is superimposed on the NEXRAD observations of
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chemical ioniza- frequency and penetration height.
Fig. 5. The response of the four major rate-limiting steps in the catalytic removal of ozone to (A) temperature alone and (B) temperature plus convective
addition of water vapor to a mixing ratio of 10 ppmv. The ozone loss rates, calculated using the AER 2D model, are shown after perturbation of temperature
and/or water vapor. The three temperature profiles used in the model are shown in Fig. 4, and the temperature distribution is described in Observations of
Temperatures in the Lower Stratosphere. A constant 10 ppmv water vapor perturbation between 12 km and 18 km is used to demonstrate the sensitivity in
ozone loss rates as a function of altitude (see text).
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