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Climate Sensitivity and Feedback

Mechanisms
Anthropogenic Climate Change
International Climate Change Bilateral
and Multilateral Negotiations
Ranjan Kumar Dahal, PhD, PostDoc, M.ASCE
Associate Professor,
Geodisaster Research Center, Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan
University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal

Visiting Professor
Faculty of Engineering, Kagawa University, JAPAN

Visiting Associate Professor

Center for Disaster Management Informatics Research, Ehime University,
JAPAN

Fellow Academician
Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)

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Global Climate Change- major content

10 hours
Introduction to the Climate System
Global Energy Balance, Radiate - (Light & Heat)
Transfer and Climate
Energy Balance at the Surface
Natural Climate Change (Including Paleoclimate-
Changes in Climate)
The Hydrologic Cycle
Climate Sensitivity and Feedback Mechanisms
Anthropogenic Climate Change
International Climate Change Bilateral and
Multilateral Negotiations

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Before we begin:
review of last class
1. What are Green house gases:
2. (CO2, H2O, N2O, O3, CH4, CFCs)
3. What are aspects of climate those have not been observed to
change?
4. Tornadoes, Dust-storms, Hail, Lightning, Antarctic sea ice
5. How can we reduce Carbon Emissions?
Burn less fossil fuel: Turn down your thermostat
Plant Trees for shade and CO2 uptake
Insulate your house
Replace old appliances
Use compact fluorescence/led light bulbs
Use renewable energy

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Climate Sensitivity and Feedback

Mechanisms
This Section discusses:

1. Climate feedback processes

2. Climate sensitivity and climate feedback
parameter

(Materials cited from D. Hartmanns textbook and online materials by Prof. J.-Y.
Yu )

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Two approaches to understanding

climate change.
Top Down Approach - Take observed
climate record and attempt to extrapolate
intelligently into the future.

Bottom Up Approach - Attempt to understand

and model the critical climate processes,
then use the resulting detailed model to predict
how future climates might respond to specified
forcing like CO2 increase.

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IPCC -
2001

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Infrared Greenhouse
Effect:
The amount by which
the atmospheric reduces
the longwave emission
from Earth.

Greenhouse effect = Surface infrared emission - Earth infrared emission

155 Wm-2 = 390 Wm-2 - 235 Wm-2

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Model of Global Temperature Anomalies through time

Energy Equation:

T 1
Q C T
t
Climate = Heat + Heat
Forcing Storage Loss

In Equilibrium, temperature is constant with time and so,

T Q
is a measure of climate sensitivity;
Kelvin per Wm-2 of climate forcing

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To Project future climates by

using the observed record of
climate over the past century,
we need to know three things
to interpret the temperature
time series:

T 1
Q C T
t
Climate Forcing = Q (Wm-2)

Heat capacity = C (J oK-1 m -2)

Climate sensitivity = (oK per Wm-2)

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Top-Down Approach:
Determine sensitivity of climate
from observed record over past
130 years. Use simple model
to extrapolate into future.

Problems: Need to know:

Climate forcing - uncertain, especially solar and aerosol forcing.

Heat storage - somewhat uncertain.

Climate sensitivity - also uncertain.

No two of these are known with enough precision to usefully constrain
uncertainty in the third, with the data available, although it is possible
to fit the observations with fair precision using even a simple model.

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IPCC -2001

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Bottom-up approach
Understand and model key
physical processes that affect
climate sensitivity.
i.e. Feedback Processes

Water vapor feedback

Cloud feedback

Ice-albedo feedback

Many more

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Climate Feedback and Sensitivity

Feedback is a circular causal process whereby some

proportion of a system's output is returned (fed back) to the
input.

input Q
Qfinal

Climate System T output

Tfinal

Qfinal = Q + Qfeedback
Qfeedback can be either negative or positive

Tfinal = T + Tsensitivity

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An objective measure of climate feedback and

sensitivity
The strength of a feedback depends on how
sensitive the change in input (Q) responds to the
change in output (T) :
Feedback strength: = Q / T
Climate sensitivity: -1 = T / Q
1. Positive values negative feedbacks, stable
Negative values positive feedbacks, unstable
BB = 4T3 = 3.75Wm-2K-1
2. The larger , the stronger feedback.

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Stefan-Boltzmann feedback

Outgoing longwave radiation:

F = T4
= 5.67x10-8

The strength of the feedback:

BB = F / T = 4T3 = 3.75 Wm-2K-1

1. A negative feedback, stable

2. 1K increase in T would increase F by 3.75 Wm-2

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Water vapor feedback

Clausius-Clapeyron relationship:
es = f(T)
1% increase in T would increase 20% in es

Water vapor is the principal greenhouse gases.

The feedback strength:
v= 1.7 Wm-2K-1

1. A positive feedback, unstable

2. Weaker than BB
3. BB + v = 2.05 Wm-2K-1

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Estimated Strength of Water Vapor Feedback

Earliest studies suggest that if the absolute humidity increases
in proportion to the saturation vapor pressure (constant relative
humidity), this will give rise to a water vapor feedback that will
double the sensitivity of climate compared to an assumption of
fixed absolute humidity. 80

70 Saturation Vapor Pressure (hPa)

Saturation Vapor Pressure (hPa)

Most observational and 60

modeling studies have
50
supported this conclusion.
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30

20

10

0
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (C)

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Ice-Albedo Feedback

Ice reflects more solar radiation than other surfaces

As the Earth warms, ice melts in high latitudes and altitudes

This lowers the albedo of Earth and leads to further warming.

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Ice (snow) albedo feedback

Striking contrast between
ice-covered and ice-
free surfaces

In ice-covered regions,
more solar energy
reflected back to space:

Feedback strength:
ice= 0.6 Wm-2K-1

1. Positive feedback,
unstable
2. BB + v + ice=1.45 Wm-2K-1

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An example of climate feedback

Global Temperature
Anomalies

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Anomalies

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Snow cover change Temperature change

Chapin et al. (2005), Science

Snow (ice)-albedo climate feedback
1. Decrease in snow-cover and
snow season
2. Tundra trees

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Total feedback

total =1.45 Wm-2K-1

Positive feedback negative feedback

total
3.75 Wm-2K-1

Doubling of atmospheric CO2 2.9 K

Without ice-albedo feedback 2.0 K

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17
+15%

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Cloud feedback
1. It is unclear what is the strength and even
directions (negative or positive). From GCM
simulations, cloud = 0 0.8.

2. Could effects can be either umbrella or

blanket.
umbrella blanket

Low cumulus clouds High cirrus clouds

Negative feedback Positive feedback

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Cloud feedback (con.)

3. It is uncertain whether an increased
temperature will lead to increased or
decreased cloud cover.

4. It is generally agreed that increased

temperatures will cause higher rates of
evaporation and hence make more water
vapor available for cloud formation, the
form (e.g., type, height, and size of
droplets) which these additional clouds
will take is much less certain.

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Energy-balance climate models

1. Zero-dimensional EBMs

(1-) S0 /4 = Te4
shortwave in = Longwave out

The surface T: Ts = Te + T (greenhouse effects)

The Erath: S0 = 1376 Wm-2, = 0.3, Te= 255 K, Ts =288 K

Venus: S0 = 2619 Wm-2, = 0.7, Te = 242 K,
greenhouse gases Ts = 730 K

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Energy balance climate models (con.)

2. One-dimensional EBMs (Sellers and Budyko in 1969)

Shortwave in = Transport out + Longwave out

S(x) [1 - (x) ] = C [ T(x) - Tm ] + [ A + B T(x) ]

S(x) = the mean annual radiation incident at latitude (x) = S0/4 *s(x)
(x) = the albedo at latitude (x)
for ice-free (Ts > 10C) : 0.3
for ice (Ts < 10C) : 0.62
C = the transport coefficient (3.81 W m-2 C-1)
T(x) = the surface temperature at latitude (x)
Tm = the mean global surface temperature
A and B are constants A = 204.0 W m-2 and B = 2.17 W m-2 K-1
This B is equivalent to BB (3.75) or BB + v = 2.05 (see Fig. 9.1)

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Energy balance climate models (con.)

Changeable parameters:
S0
(x) (0.62)
C (3.81 W m-2 C-1)
A and B are (B = 2.17 W m-2 K-1)
The model contains four kinds of climate feedbacks:

1) Ice-albedo feedback (Ts> 5C ; 0.8) (see Fig. 9.5)

2) Stefan-Boltzmann feedback: B (BB) = 3.75
3) water-vapor feedback: B (BB + v) = 2.05 ; 1.45 (Budyco, 1969); 1.6
(Cess, 1974)
4) dynamical feedbacks and zonal energy transport: C=0 means no such
a feedback
You may also add cloud feedbacks by changing: B smaller (positive
feedbacks)
B larger (negative feedbacks)
Try Toy Model 4 at the course website

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Biogeochemical feedbacks A Daisyworld model

Daisyworld is a world
filled with two different
types of daisies: black
daisies and white
daisies. They differ in
albedo, which is how
much energy they
absorb as heat from
sunlight. White daisies
have a high surface
albedo and thus reflect
light and heat, thus
cooling the area around
them.

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Biogeochemical feedbacks A Daisyworld model

Growth Factorwhite = 1 - 0.003265*(295.5K -Twhite)2

Global mean temperature:

Te4 = S0 (1 p) /4

p=Agg + Aww+ Abb

Local temperature:

Ti4 = S0 (1 i) /4

Ti4 = (p i) + Te4

where 0< < S0/(4) represents the allowable range

between the two extremes in which horizontal transport of
energy is perfectly efficient (0) and least efficient [S0/(4)].

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A Daisyworld model

Global mean emission temperature is remarkably stable for a wide range of

solar constant values.

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Climate Trend 1976 to 2000

Increase in T melting of snow and frozen soil larger area of wetlands

more soil carbon released as CH4 increase in T
Together with ice-albedo feedback, the warming trend will be accelerated

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Other feedbacks at regional scales

Albedo

Increase in albedo

SW radiation
absorbed decreases

Rn decreases

Increase in albedo H, LE decreases

Increase in Rn
Reduction in:
Reduction in: Cloudness Increase in
Soil moisture Precipitation insolation
convergence

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Other feedbacks at regional scales

Soil Moisture

Decrease in soil
moisture

LE decreases
H Increases
Ts Increases
Rn decreases
Decrease in soil
moisture Increase in
Reduction in: Rn
Cloudness Increase
Precipitation in
convergence insolation

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Equilibration times of the climate systems

Radiative forcing

Climate System

Atmosphere 10 days

Atmosphere boundary layer 1day

Ocean Land

Mixed layer Sea ice Ice/snow 10 Lakes 10

mths-yrs days to days days
100 y

Deep ocean 1000 years glacier 100s Biosphere

yrs 10 d to 100
yrs

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Three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)

1. Computer programs
Describing atmosphere at >150,000 grid cells

2. Operate in two alternate stages:

Dynamics: for whole global array,
simultaneously solves:
Conservation of Energy
Conservation of Momentum
Conservation of Mass
Ideal Gas Law

Physics: for each independent column,

computes mass/energy divergences, surface
inputs, buoyant exchange, e.g.,
Radiation Transfer Boundary Layer
Surface Processes Convection (cloud)
Grid spacing: ~ 33 horizontally Precipitation
~ meters/km vertically
Time step ~ 30 minutes 3. Coupling with
Ocean, Land, Biosphere, Sea Ice, and Ice
Sheets

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Summary

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Summary

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Class Work
At an international conference on global climate
change British scientists presented the following theory:

If the temperature of the Earth rises significantly as a

result of an enhanced greenhouse effect Global
warming the speed of global winds will increase.
Increased wind speed will cause a greater disturbance
of ocean water which in turn will cause larger clouds
to form. The clouds might either increase or decrease
the Earths average global temperature.

This theory is an example of a feedback mechanism in

which one event causes a series of the events which in
turn influence the first event.

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Imagine that you are a

scientist at the conference
and have been given a copy
of a diagram illustrating the
feedback mechanism
described by the British
scientists.
Your job is to interpret the
diagram analyze how this
particular feedback
mechanism might influence
global warming and report
back to the conference
members.
Answer the questions
given.
Given Questions

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Anthropogenic Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014
that scientists were more than 95% certain that global warming is mostly
being caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2).

Combining Evidence of Anthropogenic Climate Change

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Temperature trend 1901-2000

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June-July-August Greenhouse gas + sulfate aerosol

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Contribution of greenhouse gas and

sulfate aerosols to trend 1949-98
o: Greenhouse gas + sulfate
aerosol simulation
+: Greenhouse gas only
o/+ inconsistent with
observation
Ellipse: 90% uncertainty range
in obs. Signal estimate
from: Hegerl and Allen, 2002

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The longer perspective

Reconstruction of
Northern Hemisphere
warm season
temperature

Forced component
Fat: best fit to paleo
Thin: 5-95% range
*: significant

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Towards detection of anthropogenic

changes in climate extremes
How to compare course-grid model with
station data?
Can daily data be substituted by
monthly/annual and shift in distribution =>
no
Which index to use for early detection
(avoid baseball statistics!) that is
moderately robust between models?
Change in once/few times/yr events robust
and strong

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Change in rainfall wettest day/yr N America

Consensus
Observations show overall
increase, too

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Annual mean precip changes

consistent between two
models

Wettest day/yr

Wettest 5 consecutive days

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Results: Anthropogenic vs natural

signals, time-space

Allen et al, 2002

CGCM: Coupled Global Climate Model

Bars show 5-95% uncertainty limits
ECHAM is an atmospheric general circulation
HadCm2 =Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 2
model

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Annual mean rainfall change NAmerica

consensus

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Radiative Forcing and Net Radiation

Definition: A change in the net radiation at
the top of the atmosphere due to some
external factor.
Net radiation = Incoming - Outgoing
Positive net radiation
Incoming > Outgoing
Negative net radiation
Outgoing > Incoming

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Forcing and Feedbacks

Forcing is produced by an external
process, e.g.
Changes in solar flux
Volcanic eruptions
Human actions
A feedback is a response to temperature
changes
Example: Increased water vapor due to
warming

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Forcing and Feedbacks

Anthropogenic increases in greenhouse

gases are considered forcings
Increases in greenhouse gases that are
caused by temperature changes are
feedbacks

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Forcing and Feedbacks

The same gas can be involved in forcings

and feedbacks, e.g., CO2
Forcing:
CO2 increase from burning of fossil fuels
Feedback
temp decay CO2

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Positive Radiative Forcings

Largest by far: increased greenhouse

gases
Increase is almost entirely anthropogenic

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Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases

Gas Forcing (Wm-2)

CO2 1.66

CH4(methane) 0.48

N2O (nitrous oxide) 0.16

Halocarbons 0.34

Total 2.64

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Negative Radiative Forcings

Largest: Increase in sulfate aerosols
Mostly anthropogenic

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Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosols

Coal and diesel fuel contain sulfur

Burning of these fuels produces sulfur
dioxide (a gas)
In the atmosphere, this gas is converted into
particles

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Effect of Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosols on

Temperature
Direct effect
The aerosols themselves reflect sunlight
This is similar to the effect of volcanic aerosols
Indirect effect
Sulfate aerosols act as condensation nuclei
This increases the droplet concentration in clouds
Result: Increased cloud albedo
Both effects tend to increase the Earths albedo

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Evidence for Indirect Effect

Bright streaks
are areas of
enhanced albedo
Cause: Emissions
from ships
Streaks called
ship tracks

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Cause of Ship Tracks

Ship exhaust
contains
aerosols
The aerosols
cause more
droplets to
form
Cloud albedo
is increased

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Total Anthropogenic Effect on

Climate
Total Anthropogenic Climate Forcing =
sum of all anthropogenic forcings
Mainly, greenhouse gases (+)
+
sulfate aerosols (-)
Best Estimate:1.6 W/m2 Positive
Net Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing (1750 2005)

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Solar Irradiance

Some evidence suggests solar irradiance

may have increased lately
Current estimate of forcing: very small
Note: Evidence is very weak!

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Engineering Solution to Global

Warming?
Sulfate aerosols cool the Earth
Why not deliberately increase sulfur
emissions?
Answer: Sulfur emissions contribute to acid
rain

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Reducing acid rain

Sulfur emissions have been reduced
Result: Less acid rain

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Acid Rain vs. Global Warming

Reducing sulfur emissions reduces acidity

Reducing sulfur emissions reduces cooling
effect of sulfate aerosols
Result: Accelerated warming

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Final understanding
The inclusion or exclusion of a feedback mechanism could
dramatically alter the climate modeling results.
Uncertainties in projections of global warming are closely related to
uncertainties in climate sensitivity to external forcing.
Increased efforts to understand the underlying physical processes
behind the key climate feedback processes are needed, and
many are underway.
Some important feedbacks may have not been included in GCMs.
Global climate models are getting more complex as more feedback
mechanisms are included.
Analyses on climate feedbacks and sensitivity can help
1) understand the mechanisms of climate change.
2) select important processes and limit the complexity of climate
models.

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Understanding
Significant climate change observed
Uncertainty in distinction between forcings,
but:
Most of the recent (last 50 yrs) global
warming is likely due to greenhouse gases
Significant and consistent climate signals in
long temperature records

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International Climate Change Bilateral and

Multilateral Negotiations

International Conventions
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
The United States is a party to the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and participates in ongoing negotiations
under the UNFCCC. The United States signed the treaty in June
1992 and ratified it in October of that same year, becoming the first
industrialized country and the fourth nation overall to do so. Under
the Convention, U.S. funding supports technology transfer, capacity
building, and adaptation programs in developing countries.

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International Conventions

International Convention on the Prevention of Pollution from

Ships

In US Environment Planning Agency is a fully

engaged member of the United States
Delegation to the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) and its Marine Environment
Protection Committee (MEPC).

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Many-country (Multilateral)
Partnerships and Activities
The United States is engaged in a number of
multilateral activities that promote clean and
efficient technologies and the sharing of critical
scientific information among a wide range of
government, private sector, academic, and other
interested stakeholders.

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Many-country (Multilateral)
Partnerships and Activities
Global Data Center Energy Efficiency Task
Force
Global Methane Initiative
Group on Earth Observations

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Two-Country (Bilateral) Partnerships

and Activities
Energy Efficiency Promotion
ENERGY STAR International Partnerships
SmartWay - SmartWay is a collaboration between EPA and the freight
transportation industry that helps freight shippers, carriers, and logistics
companies improve fuel efficiency, reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, and
save money.
U.S.-Canada Air Quality Committee: Reducing GHGs from Mobile
Sources , other countries are also doing - you can check Europe
U.S.-Canada Air Quality Committee: Reducing GHGs from Mobile
Sources - you can check for China and other countries
Economic Modeling Workshops
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Low Emission Development Strategies

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Next class
Theories of Sustainability Science
Resource and Environmental Governance
Home work:
1. Prepare for a test on Friday - 1.5 hour test.

Best of luck!

7th Lecture

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