From: Douglas Grandt answerthecall@me.

com
Subject: Arctic Methane Emergency
Date: July 7, 2017 at 2:40 PM
To: Darren W. Woods Darren.W.Woods@ExxonMobil.com
Cc: Susan K. Avery, PhD savery@whoi.edu, William (Bill) M. Colton William.M.Colton@ExxonMobil.com, Jeffrey J. Woodbury
jeff.j.woodbury@exxonmobil.com, Suzanne M. McCarron Suzanne.M.McCarron@ExxonMobil.com, Max Schulz
max.schulz@exxonmobil.com

Dear Darren,

For the love of God, what will it take for you to treat climate change as an
emergency?

Cease drilling and expansion of operations and infrastructure immediately.

Doug Grandt

AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group) Plea to G20

Leaders

2017-07-05 Version 3

Warning of climate change emergency

Dear world leaders,

You will have received an increasing number of warnings from scientists about
the seriousness of climate change and therefore how important it is to reduce
CO2 emissions. We take the logic further, using the latest scientific evidence
about the current situation and observed trends. Our conclusion is that
interventions must be taken immediately to reduce the forcing agents that are
driving climate change, especially in the Arctic. At minimum, CO2 must be
taken out of the atmosphere and the Arctic cooled.

1. Climate change is already serious

This is evidenced by the persistence of droughts and severity of floods in many

parts of the Northern Hemisphere, with a growth in such weather extremes
and damage therefrom over the past thirty years. Unrest and civil strife,
particularly in Egypt and the Middle East, has been enflamed by crop failures
and hunger. A relationship between riots and the food price index has been
established.

2. Reducing CO2 emissions has limited immediate effect

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is mainly driven by the excess of CO2 in

the atmosphere. CO2 has a long lifetime, so any reduction in emissions will
only have a gradual effect on the level of CO2 in the atmosphere; global
warming from the remaining legacy CO2 in the atmosphere will continue for
decades if not centuries.

3. Limiting AGW to 2C this century (let alone 1.5C) requires

intervention

Average global surface temperature has risen between 1.1C and 1.3C since
pre-industrial times (the baseline for AGW). The current underlying rate of
AGW is at least 0.2C per decade and greenhouse gas levels are rising. Recent
modelling suggests that 2C warming will be reached by around 2040, even on
the most optimistic IPCC scenario of CO2 emissions reduction. Thus keeping
to 2C this century requires a slowing of the warming rate to a fraction of its
current rate well before 2040 for example a reduction to 0.1C per decade by
2030. This will require a reduction in net climate forcing, through a reduction
in forcing agents (CO2 and methane in the atmosphere and albedo loss in the
Arctic) and/or through application of specific global cooling methods.
4. Removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere

The CO2 level probably needs to be reduced from the current level of over 400
ppm down to 240 ppm or less by 2030 in order to reduce both AGW and ocean
acidification to acceptable levels.

5. Cooling the Arctic and saving the sea ice

The Arctic is warming rapidly, driven by albedo positive feedback.

Observations suggest that the sea ice is in a death spiral. By 2030 the ocean
could be virtually free of sea ice for several months of the year. This state could
herald an abrupt change in atmospheric circulation and hence climate regime
for the Northern Hemisphere. (Currently climate change is driven by a
combination of global warming and a reduced temperature gradient between
Arctic and lower latitudes.) To avoid the catastrophic consequences of such
climate regime change, there is extreme urgency for the Arctic to be cooled and
sea ice preserved.

6. Preventing Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration

Reducing the temperature in the Arctic would have the further effect of halting
ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which otherwise threatens to
disintegrate and produce sudden sea level rise. This would flood small islands
and devastate low-lying areas around the world where there are cities, nuclear
power stations, infrastructure, and farm land. With the added possibility of
mega-tsunamis as huge chunks of ice slide into the sea, cooling the Arctic
should seem even more urgent.

7. Suppressing methane

The suppression of methane emissions may be vital to prevent global warming

getting out of hand. Fugitive emissions should be kept down to around 1%
production in some wells and in fracking they amount to as much as 10% of
production. Natural emission of methane from wetlands has been growing but
could be suppressed using diatom and nutrient treatment. Emissions of
methane from subsea permafrost have been growing alarmingly, threatening to
reach the gigaton level which would approximately double the rate of global
warming. Means of avoiding such an outburst need to be found and rapidly
implemented.
Conclusions

Stephen Hawking has suggested that only a relatively small increase in CO2
emissions, e.g. from US, could launch the planet towards runaway global
warming and Venus-like temperatures, hot enough to boil away the oceans.
While we do not think it likely that our planet will get so hot, there is now
overwhelming evidence that the Earths climate has already passed a point of
no return, accelerating inexorably towards unsurvivable conditions unless it is
promptly restrained by human intervention. On current trends AGW could
reach 3C by 2050 with mean sea level rising up to a metre. This alone would
present an existential threat to civilisation. With tipping points being passed
in the Arctic, intervention becomes even more extremely urgent.

We suggest that the G20 should initiate an international project, with the
Manhattan projects focus and intensity, in order to determine and implement
the optimum strategy for keeping the planet safe for future generations.
Committing to CO2 reductions is not enough. An international collaboration,
demonstrably in the interests of all humanity, could be a binding force for all
nations to come together in peace and common purpose.

John Nissen
Chair AMEG on behalf of AMEG

https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/07/07/ameg-arctic-methane-emergency-group-plea-
to-g20-leaders/