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Content
Pakistan Economy
Juggling Between Fiscal Prudence & Popular Vote 4
Expansionary Policy With a Handful of Prudence 5
Budgetary Trends 6
Pakistan Capital Market
PSX: Key Measures Proposed 8
Budget- Majorly Neutral 10
Frequent changes in holding period and tax rate 11
Key Sectors
Banks Neutral 13
Cement Positive 14
Fertilizer Positive 15
Oil & Gas Neutral 16
Power Neutral 17
Autos Positive 18
Textile Neutral to Positive 19
Other Sectors Mixed 20
Contact
Contact List 23
2
Economy
Budget Preview FY18
4
Budget Preview FY18
5
Budget Preview FY18
Budgetary Trends
Exhibit: Budgetary Highlights Exhibit: Historical Tax Revenues as %age of GDP
PKRbn FY15 A FY16 A FY17BP* 9MFY17
13.0 12.4
Net Receipts 2,392 2,585 2,374 1,723
12.0
Total Revenue 3,931 4,447 4,509 3,146 11.0 10.9
- Tax Revenue 3,018 3,660 3,550 2,694 11.0
10.0 9.9 10.1
- Non-tax Revenue 913 787 959 451 10.0 9.4 9.6
Less: Provincial Share 1,539 1,862 2,136 1,422 9.0
Total Expenditure 5,388 5,796 5,884 4,384
8.0
Current Expenditure 4,425 4,694 4,700 3,605
FY10A
FY11A
FY12A
FY13A
FY14A
FY15A
FY16B
FY17E
- Debt Servicing 1,304 1,263 1,360 1,094
- Defense 698 758 860 536 Source: MoF, AHL Research
Development + Net Lending 1,141 1,314 1,032 770
Exhibit: Historical Fiscal Deficit as %age of GDP
Fiscal Balance -1,457 -1,349 -1,375 -1,238
9.0
8.0
As a %age of GDP 8.0
Total Revenue 14.4 15.0 13.8 9.4 7.0 6.3
6.6
Tax Revenue 11.0 12.4 10.9 8.0 5.9
6.0 5.5 5.3
Non-tax Revenue 3.3 2.7 2.9 1.3 5.0 4.6
4.2
Total Expenditure 19.7 19.6 18.0 13.1
4.0
Current Expenditure 16.2 15.9 14.4 10.8
FY10A
FY11A
FY12A
FY13A
FY14A
FY15A
FY16B
FY17E
Development + net Lending 4.2 4.4 3.2 2.3
Fiscal Balance -5.3 -4.6 -4.2 -3.7
Source: MoF, AHL Research, (*) Based on projected FY17B Tax Target & GDP Source: MoF, AHL Research
6
Capital Market
Budget Preview FY18
5% Bonus Tax should be imposed on face value. Bonus Tax was levied on bonus shares back in FY14,
since then number of companies unveiling bonus dividend has reduced considerably to mere 13
High Positive
(9MFY17) compared to 71 in FY13. Consequently, tax collection from issuance of bonus shares has
been ~under 500mn (8MFY17).
For dividend, tax proposal is to maintain tax for filers at 12.5%, whereas higher dividend tax for non
High Neutral
filers (which at present is 20.0%) cannot be ruled out.
PSX has proposed withdrawal of Capital Value tax (CVT) on purchase value of shares. Medium Neutral
Currently, there is a 20% tax credit available for new listings on stock exchange for a period of two
Medium Positive
years. PSX has proposed this limit to be enhanced to 5 years.
Recommended reduction in the rate of advance tax from 0.02% to 0.01% of the value of purchase and
Medium Neutral
sale of securities.
8
Budget Preview FY18
There are expectations that Super Tax (4% banks, ex-banks 3%) will be extended in the FY18 budget.
High Neutral
Super tax is valid for companies having a bottom-line of PKR 500mn and above.
Dividends received by a company holding REITs, should be taxed at the rate of 10%, for tax year 2018
High Neutral
and onwards.
Expected reduction in the corporate tax rate to 30% from current 31%. This is in-line with the strategy
High Neutral
first introduced in FY15 budget to gradually reduce corporate tax rate to 30%.
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Budget Preview FY18
10
Budget Preview FY18
Proposal: The following three tiers of holding period and proposed tax rates are as follows.
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Sectors
Budget Preview FY18
Banks Neutral
Proposed Measures Impact Comment
Super tax imposed two years ago in lieu of military action against terrorism
is expected to impact AHL banking universe earnings by ~6.5%. Key point to
note here is that the impact of extension has largely been incorporated by
Extension in Super Tax of 4% Neutral
prevalent prices. Additionally, our underlying positive theme for banks
remains driven by 1) higher loan growth (CPEC stimulus), 2) continuous
balance sheet accretion, and 3) improving asset quality.
The move is most likely to strip banks from certain allowances they enjoy
Deleting seventh schedule from the income tax
Negative due to depreciation, amortization, provisioning of advances against bad
ordinance
debts and group relief.
Finance ministry and FBR have agreed to raise the
The increase in benchmark (from current PKR 50,000/day to proposed PKR
minimum threshold for transactions liable for Neutral
100,000/day) can increase the quantum of daily banking transactions.
withholding tax
Pakistan Bankers Association has recommended to The reduction in corporate tax rate (currently 35%) will corroborate the
Positive
also reduce the corporate tax rate for banks to 30%. bottom-lines of commercial banks.
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Budget Preview FY18
Cements Positive
Proposed Measures Impact Comment
Federal PSDP allocation is expected to be around
PKR 1,001bn - 25% higher than the budgeted PSDP
We expect the decision to increase PSDP allocation would be pivotal in
allocation of PKR 800bn in FY17. Total PSDP expected Positive
generating cement demand going forward.
at PKR 2,113bn vs. FY17 total budgeted amount of
PKR 1,675bn
Reduction in corporate tax rate by 1% to 30% Positive This should improve the bottom-line by 1% for companies across the sector.
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Budget Preview FY18
Fertilizer Positive
Proposed Measures Impact Comment
Currently GST on urea is 5% while charge on other products including DAP,
Removal of GST on all fertilizer products Positive NP and CAN is 17%. Impact of abolishment on local manufacturers would be
positive as this will cushion sales and restrict inventory pile-up.
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Budget Preview FY18
The proposal put forth by PSO hints at separate allocation of funds in the
PSO has proposed allocation of funds for Oil & Gas
Positive budget for import of oil and gas. This will aid importers as timely payments
import
will relieve the quantum of circular debt.
The E&P sector is taxed at a high rate of 40% at present while the corporate
E&Ps seek corporate tax structure similar to other tax levy for other sectors will be reduced to 30% in FY18 (positive for OMCs).
Positive
sectors E&P companies have requested treatment under the same regime; approval
will be positive for OGDC, PPL, POL, and MARI.
The recurrent change in sales tax on POL products leads to a complex and
challenging processes for relevant industries. Seeking approval from
Change of sales tax on POL products should be
Neutral Parliament, as opposed to OGRA revising the sales tax bi-monthly, will limit
approved by the Parliament
the frequency of change and lower volatility in product prices.
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Budget Preview FY18
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Budget Preview FY18
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Budget Preview FY18
Industry has urged immediate release of current and Lag in release of funds create liquidity issues for the textile industry
prior years refund payments and formulation of a Neutral simultaneously instigating the need to borrow. Timely payment of refunds
mechanism for duty drawback payment will improve the business cycle and resultantly, enhance exports.
Duty of 6% on import of polyester staple fibre and many other crucial inputs
Elimination of duty on import of key inputs Positive has rendered the local industry uncompetitive against regional peers.
Elimination of this duty will condense the cost of doing business.
Another recommendation is to abolish the GIDC, to The proposed measures, if approved, will increase product margins and
implement a uniform rate of gas and to remove the Positive improve regional competitiveness. To recall, gas price and minimum wages
export development surcharge are higher in Pakistan vis--vis India, Bangladesh, Sri-lanka and Vietnam.
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Budget Preview FY18
Others Mixed
Proposed Measures Impact Comment
The Standing Committee of NA has recommended to consider the
Cables, Diary and Pharma: Application of zero rated aforementioned sectors for zero rated tax regime. While the actual
Positive
tax regime recommended implementation would be beneficial for the sectors, the delay in refunds
claimed can lead to higher working capital requirement.
The OICCI has proposed tax credit arrangement for senior and differently-
Insurance: Proposal to allow tax credit for health abled individuals on health insurance and other medical expenditures
Positive
insurance and medical expenditures against salary income. This is positive for the insurance sector as premium
revenue in the Accident & Health segment could see an uptick.
FBR has proposed to replace the current sales tax exempt routine by a 10%
sales tax on tea whitener; NESTLE, FFL and EFOODS are among the
Diary: 10% sales tax on tea whitener recommended Negative
companies producing said product. This may lead to compressed margins or
trigger price hike and resultantly, impact demand.
Reduction in WHT will considerably augment the average revenue per
Telecomm: Proposed incentives include reduction in
subscriber for telecomm industries while abolishment of sim charges (PKR
WHT from 14% to 10%, removal of PKR 250 charges
Positive 250) and rationalization of FED from current 19% to 16% charged to other
for sim issuance, rationalize rate of FED to replicate
sectors will compress costs. Whereas grant of industry status will boost
rates in other sectors and grant industry status
growth and investment. Positive for UFONE (subsidiary of PTCL).
Tax on dividend on Stock Funds was applicable at 10%. However, the Finance
REITs: Investment in listed REIT units be treated as Act, 2015 inadvertently inserted listed REIT Funds in the category of Money
Positive
investment in Stock Fund Market Funds thereby imposing a higher rate of tax to dividends on REITs.
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Budget Preview FY18
Others Mixed
Proposed Measures Impact Comment
Inconsistency between property rates in some areas within the country has
Real Estate: The sector has recommended to abolish
Positive been creating complexity in the registry of land. Hence a uniform rate may
disparity in FBRs property valuation rates
increase the quantum of real estate transactions.
Excess arrival of sugarcane this season has created an abundant pile of the
Sugar: The Sugar Advisory Board has proposed to
commodity in the country and triggered liquidity issues. Permitting export
allow additional 1.2mn tons of sugar export Positive
(along with fixed rebate per kg) may ease the operating cycle and restrict
alongside a grant of rebate
liquidity stuck in the buildup of stocks.
With the National Tariff Commission (NTC) vigorously conducting
investigation of dumped billets / deformed rebar's at the moment and final
Steel: Budget to be a non-event for the sector Neutral determination of anti-dumping duty on CRC / Galvanized coils already in
place, we expect no major headway in the steel sector during the FY18
Budget.
The Minister of National Health Services has proposed an increase in the
Federal Excise Duty on both upper and lower slabs of all cigarette brands but
Tobacco: Recommendation to increase taxes and at different rates. For the lower slab, it is proposed that the duty be
Negative
prices of tobacco to discourage demand increased to PKR 44.00 per pack of 20 cigarettes, whereas for the upper slab,
PKR 74.10 per pack has been put forth. While the Federal govt has also sent
proposals for price hike in order to discourage tobacco use.
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Budget Preview FY18
Disclaimer
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) is (are) principally responsible for preparation of this report. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject security (ies) or sector (or economy), and
no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. In addition, we currently do not have any interest (financial or otherwise)
in the subject security (ies). Furthermore, compensation of the Analyst(s) is not determined nor based on any other service(s) that AHL is offering. Analyst(s) are not subject to the supervision or control of any employee of AHLs non-research departments, and no
personal engaged in providing non-research services have any influence or control over the compensatory evaluation of the Analyst(s).
Rating Description
BUY Upside* of subject security(ies) is more than +10% from last closing of market price(s)
HOLD Upside* of subject security(ies) is between -10% and +10% from last closing of market price(s)
SELL Upside* of subject security(ies) is less than -10% from last closing of market price(s)
* Upside for Power Generation Companies (Ex. KEL) is upside plus dividend yield.
Risks
The following risks may potentially impact our valuations of subject security (ies);
Market risk
Interest Rate Risk
Exchange Rate (Currency) Risk
This document has been prepared by Research analysts at Arif Habib Limited (AHL). This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This publication is intended only for distribution to the clients of the Company
who are assumed to be reasonably sophisticated investors that understand the risks involved in investing in equity securities. The information contained herein is based upon publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable. While every care was taken to
ensure accuracy and objectivity, AHL does not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. In particular, the report takes no account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of investors. The
information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. AHL reserves the right to make
modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, AHL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. AHL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and
would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis
for any investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his or her own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. AHL or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage
that may be arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
2017 Arif Habib Limited: Corporate Member of the Pakistan Stock Exchanges. No part of this publication may be copied, reproduced, stored or disseminated in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Arif Habib Limited.
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Budget Preview FY18
Contact
Shahid Ali Habib Chief Executive Officer shahid.habib@arifhabibltd.com +92 -21-3240-1930
Research Team
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