A Statistical Analysis of Wind Speed Distribution Models in The Aburrá Valley, Colombia

22/6/2017 ASTATISTICALANALYSISOFWINDSPEEDDISTRIBUTIONMODELSINTHEABURRVALLEY,COLOMBIA
CT&FCiencia,TecnologayFuturo ServicesonDemand
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C.T.FCienc.Tecnol.Futurovol.5no.5BucaramangaJuly/Dec.2014
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PaulaAndreaAmayaMartnez 1,AndrsJulinSaavedraMontes 1andEliana More

IsabelArangoZuluaga 1
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1 UniversidadNacionaldeColombia,Medelln,Antioquia,Colombia
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email:ajsaaved@unal.edu.co
* Towhomcorrespondenceshouldbeaddressed
Howtocite:AmayaMartnez,P.A.,SaavedraMontes,A.J.&ArangoZuluaga,E.I.(2014).Astatisticalanalysisof
windspeeddistributionmodelsintheAburrValley,Colombia.CT&FCiencia,TecnologayFuturo,5(5),121136.
(Received:Mar.17,2014Accepted:Dec.17,2014)
ABSTRACT
Theprobabilitydensityfunctions,thatmodelthewindspeedbehaviorinfiveurbanplacesandoneruraloftheAburr
ValleyinAntioquia,Colombia,arepresentedinthispaper.Theprobabilitydensityfunctionsareusedtocalculatethe
windpowerdensityforeachlocation,whichareusedtorecommendseveralapplicationsthatcouldtakeadvantageof
suchpotentialpowers.Windspeedsarerecordedatfivemonitoringstationslocatedintheurbanareaofthevalleyand
atonenearbyruralstation.Fourprobabilitydensityfunctions,namely,Weibull,Rayleigh,Gamma,andLognormal,are
usedtorepresentthewindspeeddatahistogramsofeachlocationandtoselecttheprobabilitydensityfunctionthat
bestfitthevariabilityofthewindspeeddata.Also,fourgoodnessoffittestarecalculated.Thewindpowerdensityis
calculatedwiththeprobabilitydensityfunctionthatbestrepresentsthewindspeeddistributiontoevaluatethewind
poweravailability.Thepowerdensitiesreportedforthefiveurbanstationsrangedfrom1.38to4.54W/m2,andthat
reportedfortheruralstationwas911.1W/m2.Takingintoaccountthepowerdensityofeachstation,several
applicationsaresuggested.
Keywords:Powerdensity,Probabilitydensityfunction,Goodnessoffittest,Windspeed.
RESUMEN
Enesteartculosepresentanlasfuncionesdedensidaddeprobabilidadquemodelanelcomportamientodela
velocidaddelvientoencincolugaresurbanosyunoruraldelValledeAburrenAntioquia,Colombia.Lasfuncionesde
densidaddeprobabilidadsonutilizadasparacalcularladensidaddepotenciaenelvientoparacadalugar,lacuales
utilizadapararecomendarvariasaplicacionesquepodranaprovecharlapotenciadisponible.Lasvelocidadesde
http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S012253832014000200007 1/15
vientosonregistradasencincoestacionesdemonitoreoubicadasenelreaurbanadelvalleyunaestacinrural
cercanaalValle.LascuatrofuncionesdedensidaddeprobabilidadWeibull,Rayleigh,GammayLognormalsonusadas
pararepresentarloshistogramasdelosdatosdevelocidaddelvientodecadaubicacinycuatropruebasdebondad
deajustesoncalculadasparaseleccionarlafuncindedensidaddeprobabilidadquemejormodelalavariabilidadde
losdatosdevelocidaddelviento.Adicionalmente,ladensidaddepotenciaenelvientoescalculadaconlafuncinde
densidaddeprobabilidadquemejorrepresentaladistribucindevelocidaddelvientoparaevaluarladisponibilidadde
potenciaenelviento.Lasdensidadesdepotenciareportadasparalascincoestacionesurbanasestnenelrangode
1.38a4.54W/m2yladensidadreportadaparalaestacinrurales911.1W/m2.Variasaplicacionessonsugeridas
teniendoencuentaladensidaddepotenciadecadaestacin.
Palabrasclave:Densidaddepotencia,Funcindedensidaddeprobabilidad,Pruebasdebondaddeajuste,Velocidad
delviento.
RESUMO
Nesteartigosoapresentadasasfunesdedensidadedeprobabilidadequemodelamocomportamentoda
velocidadedoventoemcincolugaresurbanoseumruraldoValedeAburr,Antioquia,Colmbia.Asfunesde
densidadedeprobabilidadesoutilizadasparacalcularadensidadedepotncianoventoparacadalugar,aqual
utilizadapararecomendarvriasaplicaesquepoderiamaproveitarapotnciadisponvel.Asvelocidadesdevento
soregistradasemcincoestaesdemonitoramentolocalizadasnareaurbanadovaleeumaestaoruralprxima
aoVale.AsquatrofunesdedensidadedeprobabilidadeWeibull,Rayleigh,GammaeLognormalsousadaspara
representaroshistogramasdosdadosdevelocidadedoventodecadalocalizaoequatroprovasdebondadede
ajustesocalculadasparaselecionarafunodedensidadedeprobabilidadequemelhormodelaavariabilidadedos
dadosdevelocidadedovento.Adicionalmente,adensidadedepotncianoventocalculadacomafunode
densidadedeprobabilidadequemelhorrepresentaadistribuiodevelocidadedoventoparaavaliaradisponibilidade
depotncianovento.Asdensidadesdepotnciaregistradasparaascincoestaesurbanasestonafaixade1.38a
4.54W/m2eadensidaderegistradaparaaestaoruralde911,1W/m2.Vriasaplicaessosugeridas
considerandoadensidadedepotnciadecadaestao.
Palavraschave:Densidadedepotncia,Funodedensidadedeprobabilidade,Provasdebondadedeajuste,
Velocidadedovento.
1.INTRODUCTION
Theusageandapplicationofrenewableenergieshaveincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears(Dincer,2011Fyrippis,
Axaopoulos&Panayiotou,2010Hernndez,Espinosa,Saldaa&Rivera,2012).Windenergyisanimportanttypeof
renewableenergythatprovidesacleanandinexhaustibleenergysource(Li&Li,2005aSalameh&Nandu,2010).
Thepresenceandbehaviorofwindareknownthroughlargescalemapsofwindathighaltitudesaroundtheworld
however,lessinformationisavailableregardingthepresenceandspeedofwindinurbanareasatlowaltitudes
(Hernndezetal.,2012Li&Li,2005bSeguro&Lambert,2000).
Localanemometriccharacteristicsareusedinwindstatisticalanalysis.Amongtheavailableanalyticaltools,the
ProbabilityDensityFunction(PDF)standsout,whichisusedtoassesstheavailablewindenergyatagivenlocation
anddescribesthevariationofwindspeedtooptimizethedesignofwindenergyconversionsystems(LoBrano,Orioli,
Ciulla,&Culotta,2011Chang,2011).Thisapproachreducesthelongtimeandresourcesthatareassociatedwith
theprocessingofhourlywindspeedinformationrecordedduringmanyyears(Li&Li,2005b).Themostwidelyused
PDFscorrespondtotheWeibullandRayleighdistributionsbecausetheyrepresent,withhighprecision,windspeed
datafromvariousgeographicallocationsaroundtheWorld(Acosta&Djokic,2010Akdag&Gler,2010Celik,2004
LoBranoetal.,2011Safari,2011Safari&Gasore,2010Zhou,Erdem,Li&Shi,2010).OtherPDFs,suchasthe
Gamma,Lognormal,InverseGaussianandMaximumEntropyPrinciple,havebeenusedwithpositiveresultsinsome
studies(Zhouetal.,2010Li&Li,2005a).InthePalermourbanareainItaly,theWeibull,Rayleigh,Lognormal,
Gamma,InverseGaussian,PearsontypeVandBurrPDFs,weretheonesthatbestrepresentedwindspeeddata(Lo
Branoetal.,2011).Basedonthereferencesdiscussedabove,itisclearthatinurbanareasthereiswindpotential
whichdependsontheenvironmentandbuildingconfigurations.AlthoughtheAburrValleyisatropicalanddeepvalley
wherethewindspeediscomparativesmallerthanothercities,itisnecessarytocharacterizethewindspeedusing
commonPDFstoknowthewindpowerandtotakeadvantageofurbanapplicationssuchasbatterychargersand
lighting.
BecausethereareseveralPDFsthatcouldmodelthewindbehaviorinaspecificplace,itisnecessarytoselectthe
PDFthatbestrepresentsthewindspeed.Zhouetal.(2010)usedthechisquare(2),coefficientofdetermination
(R2),RootMeanSquareError(RMSE),loglikelihood(LogLH),KolmogorovSmirnov(KS),andIndexofAgreement
(Index_A)goodnessoffitteststodeterminewhichPDFsshowedthebestadjustmenttogivenlocationsavoiding
biasedresults.MorethanonegoodnessoffittestiscommonlyusedtoguaranteetheselectionofthePDFthatbest
modelsthewindspeedinaspecificplace.
Theassessmentofavailablewindresourcesinagivenlocationandtimeperiodisbasedonthecalculatedwindpower
density,whichcanbeobtainedbyseveralmethods.InChang(2011)thewindpowerdensityiscalculatedfromwind
speeddataasatimefunction.Toobtainconfidentwindpowerdensityresults,thismethodrequireswindspeeddata
measurements,whichnotalwaysareavailable.AnotherisbasedonthewindPDF,whichisusedtocalculatetheWind
PowerDensityDistribution(WPDD).AcomparisonoftherelativeerrorbetweentheWPDDobtainedfromthePDFand
theWPDDobtainedfromwinddataisconsideredwhenmakingadecisionifawindPDFisagoodrepresentationofthe
windbehavior(Li&Li,2005a).Therelativeerrorbetweenthepowerdensitiescalculatedbythesetwomethodstakes
thepowerdensitycalculatedfromthewinddataasthereferencevalue.OnceaPDFischosentomodelthewind
behaviorofaspecificplace,itisnecessarytocalculatethewindpowerdensityandvalidatetheresultcomparingit
withtheWPDDobtainedfromwinddata.
ThemainobjectiveofthisworkistopresentthePDFsandtheirparameters,whichmodelthewindspeedbehaviorin
fiveurbanplacesandoneruraloftheAburrValleyinAntioquia,Colombia.Fourgoodnessoffittestareusedtoselect
thePDFthatbestrepresentthewindspeedbehaviorineachassessedlocation.Additionally,thewindpowerdensity
foreachlocationiscalculatedwiththeselectedPDFanddifferentapplicationsarerecommendedtotakeadvantageof
suchpotentialpowers.
Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows:InSection2themethodologyusedtoassessthewindresourcesinsix
locationsoftheAburrValleyisdescribed.TheresultsandtheirdiscussionarepresentedinSection3.Finally,the
conclusionsarepresentedinSection4.
2.METHODOLOGY
ThemethodologyusedtoassessthewindresourcesinthefiveurbanlocationsintheAburrValleyandtheone
nearbyrurallocationispresentedinthissection.First,thestudyareaandthemonitoringstationdescriptionare
presented.Then,thefourPDFsoftheWeibull,Rayleigh,LognormalandGammadistributionusedtofittheobserved
windspeeddataaredescribed.ThefourteststoevaluatethegoodnessoffitofeachPDFarepresentedtakinginto
accountthattheyaretheonesmostwidelyusedinpreviousworks(Akpinar&Akpinar,2007Chang,2011).Laterin
thissection,thepowerdensitycalculationusingthePDFthatbestfitsthehistograms,andtheaveragepowerdensity
calculationusingtheobservedwinddataaredescribed.Thelatermethodisusedasareferencetovalidateifthe
selectedPDFrepresentsthewindbehaviorinthespecificlocation.
StudyAreaandMonitoringStations
ThestudywasconductedinfiveurbanlocationswithintheAburrValleyandinonerurallocationoutsidebutcloseto
thevalley,asshowninFigure1.TheAburrValley,anaturalbasinoftheMedellinRiver,islocatedinthecentral
southernpartoftheAntioquiaprovinceinColombia.Thevalleyhasanirregularandsteeptopographywithaltitudes
rangingfrom1300mto2800mabovesealevel.Thelower,flatpartofthisnarrowvalleyhasamaximumwidthof10
kmfromeasttowestandalengthof70kmfromsouthtonorth.
Thenamesofthelocationsofthefiveurbanmonitoringstationsare:FacultaddeMinas(FM),GirardotaColegio
Colombia(GCC),PolitcnicoJaimeIsazaCadavid(PJIC),UniversidadCES(UC),andDitaires(DI).Theruralstationis
calledSantaElena(SE).TheanemometeratFMmonitoringstationislocated4mabovetheground.Thestationis
influencedbyhighvehiculartraffic.Thedistancefromthestationtotheborderroadis3mandtheroadwidthis12m.
Thelocalenvironmentofthestationisresidential,universityandmultipleactivities.ThePJICstationislocatedina
residentialandmultipleactivitiesenvironmentandisinfluencedbyhighvehiculartraffic.Thedistancefromthestation
totheborderroadis5mandtheroadwidthis7m.Theanemometerislocated6mabovetheground.
TheGCCmonitoringstationisfixedandislocatedinasuburbanareai.e.biggreenareasaremixedwithbuiltareas.
Thestationisindirectlyinfluencedbythetraffic.Thedistancefromthestationtotheborderroadis4m,theroad
widthis5m,andtheanemometeris10mabovetheground.TheDImonitoringstationisfixedandislocatedinan
industrialareaalsotheareaischaracterizedasmandatorysocialuse.Thereisnotsignificantinfluenceofvehicular
trafficortallbuildings.Theanemometeris4mabovetheground.SEmonitoringstationislocatedinaruralareawitha
verysmallresidentialindexandbasicallythereisnobuildingorroadsaffectingthestation.
Inallstations,thesamplingtimeusedwas60minutesthissamplingtimehasbeencommonlyusedtorecordurban
winddatainpreviousstudies(Acosta&Djokic,2010Georgakis&Santamouris,2008Li,Wang,&Yuan,2010Lo
Branoetal.,2011Zhouetal.,2010).ThewinddatafromurbanareaswereprovidedbytheAirQualityLaboratory
(CALAIRE)atUniversidadNacionaldeColombia,andcorrespondtooneyear.Thenumberofmeasurementsandthe
minimum,maximumandaveragewindspeedsforeachstationaresummarizedinTable1.Also,thelatitude,longitude
andheightofeachstationareprovided.Incertaincases,thenumberofmeasurementswaslowerthanitshouldhave
beenasaresultofdatalossduringcertaintimeperiods.
ProbabilityDensityFunctions(PDFs)
PDFsaremathematicalfunctionsthatcharacterizetheprobablebehaviorofadataset.Thisdatasetcancorrespond
tothebehaviorofarandomvariablethatiscontinuousintime.Sincewindspeedisrandomvariable,itisappropriate
todescribethoseusingPDFs.TheWeibull,Rayleigh,LognormalandGammaPDFshavebeenusedinmanystudiesto
evaluatetheinstallationofwindturbinesinagivenlocationortocalculatetheavailablewindresources(Acosta&
Djokic,2010Fyrippisetal.,2010Li&Li,2005aLoBranoetal.,2011Safari,2011Zhouetal.,2010).
Inthisstudy,themaximumlikelihoodmethodwasusedtocalculatetheWeibull,Rayleigh,LognormalandGammaPDF
parametersthatmaximizetheprobabilityoftherecordedwindspeeddata.Themaximumlikelihoodmethodis
consideredtobeapreciseandrobustmethod(LoBranoetal.,2011Seguro&Lambert,2000),anditisalsothe
mostappropriatecomputationalmethodfortheanalysisofwindenergywhentheWeibulldistributionparametersare
estimatedbasedonthewindspeeddataseries(Seguro&Lambert,2000Zhouetal.,2010).ThePDFparameters
werecalculatedusingthemaximumlikelihoodmethodfromtheStatisticalAnalysisSoftwareSAS .Weibull,Rayleigh,
LognormalandGammaPDFdefinitionsaregivenbyEquation1,2,3and4respectively.
InEquation1,2,3and4,xrepresentstheobserveddata.TheWeibulldistributionhasthreeparameters:theform
parameter,thescaleparameter,andthelocalizationparameter.Thefamilyofcurvesthatcanbegenerated
fromtheWeibullPDFusingdifferentparametersresultsinagoodfittothemeasuredwindspeeddatabecauseofthe
flexibilityoftheparametersandthecapabilityofthefunctiontoadjustbothexponentialandnormalshapes(Chang,
2011Zhouetal.,2010).
TheRayleighdistributionisaspecialcaseoftheWeibulldistributionandisusedfrequentlyintheliteraturetofitwind
PDFs(LoBranoetal.,2011).OneadvantageoftheRayleighdistributionisthatthePDFandthecumulative
distributionfunction(F)areobtainedfromtheaveragewindspeed.InthisPDF,theformparameterisequalto2and
theparameterisequalto2timesthebparameterfromtheRayleighdistribution(Acosta&Djokic,2010Zhouet
al.,2010).
TheLognormaldistributionisusedtofitwindspeedvariationsandtogeneratefrequencydistributionsofwindspeed
foragiventimeinterval(Li&Li,2005bLoBranoetal.,2011Zhouetal.,2010).Itisaprobabilitydistributionofa
randomvariablewhoselogarithmhasanormaldistribution.TheparametersofthePDFincludethescaleparameter,
thestandarddeviation,andthelocalizationparameter.
Thefirststatisticalstudiesofwindspeedwereperformedapproximately60yearsago,andthesestudiesconsidered
windspeedtobeadiscreterandomvariable,andmodeleditusingaGammadistribution.ThegeneralizedGamma
distributionisappropriatefordescribingthesurfacewindspeeddistributioninmostofEurope(LoBranoetal.,2011).
Thisdistributionrepresentsthesumofexponentialfunctionsdistributedasrandomvariables,anditsPDFincludesthe
formparameter,thescaleparameterandthelocalizationparameter.
ThecumulativePDFsoftheWeibull,Rayleigh,LognormalandGammadistributionsaregivenbyEquations5,6,7and8
respectively.ThesecumulativePDFsareusedtocalculatethegoodnessoffittestdescribedinnextsubsection.The
observeddataarerepresentedbyx.
GoodnessofFitTests
Toevaluatethegoodnessoffitofthechosendistributionstothewindspeedhistograms,fourtestswereselected
basedonaliteraturereview.ThemostcommonlyusedtestsaretheR2,RMSE,KSandIndex_A.Thedefinitionsof
thefourtestsarepresentedinEquations9,10,11and12respectively(Li&Li,2005aLoBranoetal.,2011Ramrez
&Carta,2005Zhouetal.,2010).R2,RMSEandKStestshavebeenusedextensivelytocomparethestatistical
distributionsobtainedinwindspeedmodelingstudies.TheIndex_Atesthasbeenappliedintheanalysisofstatistical
distributionstopredictaircontaminantsandwinderosion.
CoefficientofDetermination(R2)Test
R2measuresthedegreeofthelinearrelationshipbetweentheexpectedandtheobservedwindspeedfrequency
values.Nrepresentsthenumberofbinsfortheintervalsdefinedinthehistogramandpisthenumberofparameters
oftheanalyzeddistribution.ThetotalsumofsquaresSS Tofthedifferencebetweenthefrequencyoftheobserved
windspeeddata(Oi),whichisthesumofthenumberofwindspeeddatathatareincludedintheithhistogrambin,
andtheaverageofthefrequenciesobserved( )isgivenbyEquation13.ThesumofsquarederrorsSS Eofthe
differencebetweentheobservedandtheestimatedwindspeedfrequencyisgivenbyEquation14.Theestimatedor
expectedwindspeedfrequency(Ei)isgivenbyEquation15,whereFrepresentsthecumulativeprobabilitydistribution
functionevaluatedattheupper(Ui)andlower(Li)limitsoftheithhistogrambin.Theseupperandlowerlimits
correspondtothelargestandsmallestvaluesofthewindspeedforthebinanalyzed.nisthetotalnumberofwind
speedmeasurements.WhentheR2valueiscloserto1,thefitofthedatatothedistributionusedisbetter.
RootMeanSquareError(RMSE)Test
ThistestcalculatestheRMSEbetweentheobservedwindspeedfrequencyOiandtheestimatedwindspeedfrequency
Ei.Theresultofthetestmaydifferbyseveralordersofmagnitude,dependingonwhethertheRMSEiscalculated
usingthefrequencies,theprobabilitydensitiesortheestimatedwindspeedprobabilities.TheRMSEvalueislarger
whenitiscalculatedwiththefrequenciesthanwhenitiscalculatedwiththeprobabilitydensitiesortheprobabilities.
WhentheRMSEofaPDFisclosertozero,thefitbetweentheobservedvaluesandthevaluesexpectedfromthePDF
isbetter.WhentheRMSEvaluesforseveralPDFsarecompared,itisnecessarythatthesevaluesarecalculatedusing
thesamevariable,i.e.frequency,probabilitydensityorprobabilitytomakeafaircomparison.
KolmogorovSmirnov(KS)Test
Thistestisbasedonthemaximumdifferencebetweenthehypotheticalandtheempiricalcumulativedistributions(FE).
TheempiricalcumulativeprobabilitydistributionfunctionisdefinedbyEquation16:
WhereE(i)isthenumberofpointssmallerthanxi,withxivaluessortedfromsmallesttolargest.FEisastepfunction
thatincreasesby1/natthevalueofeachsorteddatapoint.ThenullhypothesisintheKStestisthatthedatafollows
aspecificdistribution.Iftheresultofthetestislowerthanacriticalvalue,thefittothedistributionisconsideredtobe
good.TheKStestwasoriginallypresentedasagoodnessoffittestbyMasseyJr(1951)togetherwithacriticalvalue
table.
IndexofAgreement(Index_A)Test
Index_A,asshownbythedefinitioninEquation12,isthedifferencebetweenthenumber1andthequotientofthe
sumofsquaresofthedifferencesbetweentheobservedandtheexpectedfrequencies,andthesumofsquaresofthe
absolutevaluesofthedifferencesbetweentheobservedfrequencyvaluesandtheiraverageasgiveninEquation17,
andtheabsolutevaluesofthedifferencesbetweentheexpectedfrequencyvaluesandtheiraverageasgivenin
Equation18.ThepossiblevaluesofIndex_Arangefrom0to1.Avaluethatiscloserto1indicatesabetterfitofthe
PDFtotheobserveddatahistogram.
WindPowerDensity
Windpowerdensityiscalculatedtoassesstheavailabilityofwindresourcesinagivenlocation(Li&Li,2005b).Wind
powerdensityisproportionaltothecubeofwindspeedandforaselectedPDF(v)canbecalculatedasshownin
Equation19(Akpinar&Akpinar,2007Li&Li,2005aChang,2011):
Wherevminandvmaxcorrespondtotheminimumandmaximumwindspeeddata,respectively,whichwereusedto
obtaintheparametersofthePDF.representstheairdensityinkg.m3andvrepresentsthewindspeedinm.s 1.
Whenatimeseriesofwindspeeddataisavailable,anaveragewindpowerdensity( )canbecalculatedbyEquation
20,whichusestheaverageairdensityvalueandthecubeoftheaveragewindspeed(Carta&Ramrez,2007
Johnson,1985Chang,2011):
AirdensitycanbecalculatedfromtheequationCIPM2007approvedbytheInternationalCommitteeforWeightsand
Measures(Picard,Davis,Glser&Fujii,2008).
3.RESULTSANDDISCUSSION
ComparisonsBetweentheDistributionFunctionsandtheObservedData
Thevaluesoftheform,scaleandlocalizationparametersforeachdistributionandeachstationarepresentedin
Table2.ThethreeparametersofWeibullandRayleighdistributionswereestimatedforthefivestationsintheAburr
Valleyhowever,thewindspeedbehaviorforFMandSEstationswasnotdescribedbythePDFsofLognormaland
Gammadistributions.Forthelattertwodistributions,noreasonablePDFparameterscouldbefound.Thecomparisons
betweenthewindspeedhistogramsandthePDFsofthedistributionsusedtofitthemarepresentedinFigure2.
EachofthesixwinddistributionwasrepresentedbytwoormorePDFs.Goodnessoffittests,asdefinedinEquations
912,wereperformedtoselectthePDFofthedistributionthatbestrepresentedthebehaviorofthewindspeeddata
foreachlocation.ThefourgoodnessoffittestconductedtocompareeachPDFwiththecorrespondinghistogramare
presentedinTable3.Foreachstation,thedistributionsweresortedaccordingtothecoefficientofdeterminationR2.A
valuecloserto1forthistestindicatesadistributionwithaPDFthatbetterfitsthewindspeeddata.Thecalculated
valueofRMSEcoincideswiththevalueofR2becauseforeachstationthesmallestRMSEvaluecorrespondstotheR2
valueclosestto1.TheRMSEswerecalculatedusingvaluesoftheobservedandestimatedfrequenciesasdefinedin
Equation10.TheRMSEvaluesobtainedarelargerthanthoseobtainedinsimilarstudies(Akpinar&Akpinar,2007Li&
Li,2005bSafari,2011Chang,2011)becausefrequencies,ratherthanprobabilitiesorprobabilitydensities,were
usedfortheRMSEcalculation.
NoneoftheresultsfromtheKStestwaslessthanthecorrespondingcriticalvaluefromtheKolmogorovtable.
Therefore,thehypothesisthatthedistributionwasagoodfittotheobserveddatawasnotacceptedhowever,the
trendoftheKStestresultswasconsistentwiththoseoftheRMSEandR2tests.TheIndex_Atestresultequals1
whenthePDFofagivendistributionrepresentstheobserveddataexactly.TheresultsfromtheIndex_Atestwerein
thesameorderasthosefromtheR2test.Foreachstation,therewasatleastonedistributionthathadanIndex_A
valuegreaterthan0.99,whichindicatesagoodfitofthedatawiththeanalyzeddistribution.TheresultsinFigure2
areanalyzedbelowforeachlocation.
FacultaddeMinas(FM)
ThestationatFMsampleddataeveryhour.Thisstationwascharacterizedbylowaveragespeed1.1034m/s.The
comparisonoftheobserveddatawiththePDFusedispresentedinFigure2a.TheWeibulldistributionbestfitthe
behaviorofthewindspeedsforthisstation.However,thePDFhasanexponentialshapebecausetheformparameter
wasequalto1.ItshouldbetakenintoaccountthatWeibullfunctiondoesnotrepresentallwindnatural
distributions,e.g.winddistributionswithsignificancelowwinds,whicharerepresentedascerowindspeedinthe
Weibullfunction.BecauseinFMlowwindspeedsarepredominant,Weibullfunctiondoesnotrepresentthewind
distributioninthatplace.
GirardotaColegioColombia(GCC)
Thisstationhadanaveragewindspeedof1.2854m/s.TheLognormaldistributionfitthewindspeedbehaviorforthis
stationbest.Thehistogramoftheobserveddatapresentedasinglepeaktherefore,thegoodnessoffittest
calculatedfortheLognormaldistributionwasbetterthanthetestcalculatedfortheWeibulldistribution.Figure2b
showsthecomparisonofthefourdistributionsandthehistogramoftheobserveddataforGCC.
PolitcnicoJaimeIsazaCadavid(PJIC)
TheresultsofthegoodnessoffittestsinTable3showthatthedistributionthatmostcloselyfitthewindspeeddata
recordedatthisstationwastheGammadistributionfollowedbytheLognormalandWeibulldistributions.The
comparisonsbetweenthePDFsandthehistogramoftheobserveddataforPJICarepresentedinFigure2c.
UniversidadCES(UC)andDitaires(DI)
Theobserveddataforwindspeeddistributionsatthesetwostationsweresimilar,asshowninFigure2dandFigure2e.
Forbothstations,theLognormaldistributionbestfittheobserveddatafollowedbytheGamma,WeibullandRayleigh
distributions.
SantaElena(SE)
ThisstationwaslocatedinaruralsectorclosetotheAburrValleyandhadthehighestelevationofthesixmonitoring
stations.ThisdifferenceisreflectedinTable1bythefactthattheaveragewindspeedrecordedatSantaElenastation
wasatleast6.4timesgreaterthanthatrecordedattheDitairesurbanstationwiththehighestaveragewindspeed.
ThewindspeeddistributionatSEwasfitonlybytheWeibullandRayleighdistributions.Weibullwasthedistribution
thatbestfitthedataaccordingtotheresultsshowninTable3.ThecomparisonsbetweentheobserveddataforSE
andthedistributionsthatbestfitthemareshowninFigure2f.
InTable4theselectedPDFs,andtheirparameters,fortheassessedplacesarepresented.Inordertoknowthe
specificplacethatisrepresentedbytheselecteddistribution,thelatitudeandlongitudeisprovided.Oncea
distributionisselected,anditsparametersestimatedforaspecificplace,thewindpowerdensitycanbecalculated.
However,torecommendawindturbineinstallationplaceandtakingintoaccountsomegoodnessoffittestwereno
closetoacceptablevalues(e.g.theR2forFM),itisnecessarytoconfirmthePDFrepresentationthroughthe
comparisonbetweenthewindpowerdensitycalculatedwithPDFandwithatimeseriesofwindspeeddata.
AssessmentoftheWindPowerattheSixMonitoringStations
Thewindpoweratthesixmonitoringstationswasassessedthroughthecalculationoftheirpowerdensitybytwo
methodsateachlocation.InthefirstmethodthepowerdensitywascalculatedusingEquation20andthewindspeed
datasetrecordedduringaperiodofapproximatelyoneyear.Figure3illustratesthewindbehaviorintheAburrValley
basedonaseriesofwindspeeddatarecordedatthePJICstationduringfourweeks.Table5presentsthepower
densityvalues [Wm2]calculatedbyEquation20forallstations.Thesevaluesareusedasreferencesvaluesto
validatethewindpowerdensitycalculatedfromthePDFsselectedinTable4.
Inthesecondmethod,thepowerdensityP PDF[Wm2]iscalculatedusingEquation19andthemaximumandminimum
windspeedvaluesattheevaluatedstation.ThewindpowerdensitiesaregiveninTable5.Therelativepercentage
errorbetweenthepowerdensitiesinagivenlocationwascalculatedusingEquation21.Therelativeerrorisusefulin
ordertoknowiftheselectedPDFisenoughrepresentationofthewindbehaviorinthespecificplace.Forexample,for
GCClocation:theR2(0.9628)andtheIndex_A(0.9924)reportvaluesneartoone,whichcreatethefalseideathat
Lognormaldistributionisenoughrepresentationfortheassessedplace.However,therelativeerror18.68%indicates
thatotherdistributionshouldbeevaluatedtoobtainabetterrepresentationofthewindbehaviorinGCClocation.
Table5showsthatwindpowerdensitiescalculatedfromthePDFforthePJIC,UC,DIandSEstationshaverelative
errorslessthan9%.TheLognormaldistributionbestfitthedatafortwoofthosestations.ThepowerdensitiesforFM
andGCCstationshave19.1%and18.68%relativeerrorsrespectively.Thelattertwoerrorvaluessuggestthat
differentPDFshouldbeadjustedforFMandGCC,inordertoavoidoverorunderestimationofthewindenergyin
thoseplaces.
ThefiveurbanstationsintheAburrValleyreportedaveragepowerdensitiesbetween1.38and4.54W/m2,andthe
oneruralstationreportedavalueof911.1W/m2.Inagreementwiththecommerciallyinternationalsystemof
classificationbyElliottandSchwartz(1993),theurbanlocationscorrespondtothewindpowerclass1,sincethe
densityvalueislowerthan100W/m2.Therefore,thefiveurbanlocationspresentwindcharacteristicsthatarenot
suitabletogridconnectedbigscaleapplications.Thepowerdensitylevelsreportedintheurbanlocationsare
appropriatetoelectricalandmechanicalapplicationsthatarenotconnectedtothepowergrid,e.g.batterycharging
andwaterpumping.
SantaElenalocationcorrespondstothewindpowerclass7.Itisgenerallyacceptedthatwindpowerclass4and
highertypesaresuitabletobigscaleelectricitygenerationusingwindturbinemoderntechnology,sincethehighpower
windgeneratorsincombinationwithahighwindresourcearecompetitiveincostincontrastwithotherelectricpower
sources.
4.CONCLUSIONS
InordertoevaluatetheavailablewindpowerinfiveurbanplacesandoneruraloftheAburrValleyin
Antioquia,Colombia,thispaperhaspresentedthePDFsandtheirparameters,whichtogether,modelthe
windspeedbehaviorinthoselocations.ThePDFswereusedtocalculatethewindpowerdensityforeach
location,whichareusedtorecommendseveralapplicationsthatcouldtakeadvantageofsuchpotential
powers.TheobservedwindbehaviorisrepresentedbytheWeibullPDFattwoofthelocations,bythe
LognormalPDFatthreelocationsandbytheGammaPDFatonelocation.Thepowerdensitiescalculated
withthefunctionsthatbestfitthewindhistogramshavethelowestrelativeerrorwithrespecttothe
powerdensitiescalculatedfromtheobserveddata.Fromtheresultsofthegoodnessoffittestsandthe
comparisonofthewindpowerdensities,itisconcludedthatthewindbehaviorsofPJIC,UC,DIandSEare
representedbythedistributionsselectedinthiswork.BecausecalmwindispredominantinFM,noneof
theproposedPDFisacloserepresentation.Therefore,differentPDFfunctionsareneededtorepresentthe
windspeedbehaviorinFM.
Theaveragepowerdensitiesobtainedarebetween1.38and4.54W/m2forurbanlocationsand911.1
W/m2fortheruralone.Theurbanlocationsaresuitableforelectricandmechanicalapplicationssuchas
batterychargingandwaterpumping.ForSantaElena,windturbinescouldbeinstalledtoconvertthe
availablewindpower.Also,thoseturbinescanbeconnectedtothepowergrid.Finally,thispaperopens
severalworklines.Oneofthemisthenecessitytomonitoringthewindspeedinseveralcitiesof
Colombiainordertoknowitswindpotentialandtakeadvantageofit.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TheauthorsacknowledgetheAirQualityLaboratoryatUniversidadNacionaldeColombiaforprovidingthewindspeed
data,andtheDepartamentoAdministrativodeCienciaTecnologaeInnovacinCOLCIENCIASforthedoctoral
scholarship0952005.ThisstudywassupportedbytheresearchprojectMICRORED18687,whichwasfinancedby
UniversidadNacionaldeColombia.
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AUTHORS
PaulaAndreaAmayaMartnez
Affiliation:UniversidadNacionaldeColombia
IndustrialEngineering,UniversidadNacionaldeColombia
email:paamayam@unal.edu.co
AndrsJulinSaavedraMontes
ElectricalEngineering,UniversidaddelValle
M.Sc.inSystemsPowerGeneration,UniversidaddelValle
Ph.D.inElectricalEngineering,UniversidaddelValle
email:ajsaaved@unal.edu.co
ElianaIsabelArangoZuluaga
ElectronicEngineering,UniversidaddeAntioquia
Ph.D.inElectronicEngineering,UniversitatRoviraIVirgili
email:eiarangoz@unal.edu.co
ColombiaSantanderBucaramanga
Km7viaBucaramangaPiedecuesta
BucaramangaColombia
Tel.:05776847350
Fax:05776847444

ctyf@ecopetrol.com.co

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