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CHAPINGO
INGENIERA EN IRRIGACIN
METEOROLOGA AGRCOLA
TAREA
=
= +
=
=
=
Se obtiene: = +
DATOS
0.855 22.89596
1.07 33.01016
1.225 46.70684
1.36 56.61247
1.54 69.90916
1.9 102.383
100
80
GASTO (Q)
60
40
20
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
CARGA (H)
Parmetros a y b:
= b
b Ln (a) a
1.90767063 3.42195306 30.62917713
yc= 30.62x^1.907
GRAFICO CARGA - GASTO
120
100
80
GASTO (Q)
60
Q observado
Q calculado
40
20
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
CARGA (H)
FUNCIN DE LA HIPRBOLA
Grfica de Dispersin
175
170
165
160
155
150
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
58.867
= = = 0.581034
^2 99.6
= = 161.3 0.581034 61.4 = 125.6245
= 125.6245 + 0.581034
= ( + )
() = a +
0.367985
= = = 0.003695
^2 99.6
= = 5.082263 0.003695 61.4 = 4.85539
Por lo tanto, la funcin hiperblica que mejor se ajusta a las observaciones es:
= (4.85539 + 0.003695)
X Y Y1 Y2
= 125.6245 + 0.581034
175
Grfico de Dispersin con Regresin Lineal
170
Datos
Originales
165
Funcin
Corregida
160
Funcin
Lineal
155
150
45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81
Modelo logstico
Crecimiento de la poblacin
120
100
Poblacion (p(t))
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Tiempo (t)
Funcin de la curva logstica
=
1 + ( + )
= ln ( 1)
= a + bx
Parmetros:
b -0.81599219
a 5.89260689
X Y YT YCT YC
0 4 3.17805383 5.89260689 0.27521775
1 6 2.75153531 5.0766147 0.62022924
2 9 2.31363493 4.26062251 1.39170948
3 16 1.65822808 3.44463032 3.09293988
4 24 1.15267951 2.62863813 6.73179069
5 32 0.7537718 1.81264594 14.0318644
6 48 0.08004271 0.99665375 26.9599843
7 58 -0.32277339 0.18066156 45.4957055
8 65 -0.61903921 -0.63533063 65.3697182
9 79 -1.32492541 -1.45132282 81.0201934
10 87 -1.90095876 -2.26731501 90.6133664
11 91 -2.31363493 -3.0833072 95.6198908
12 94 -2.75153531 -3.89929939 98.0146065
13 97 -3.47609869 -4.71529158 99.1122266
14 98 -3.8918203 -5.53128377 99.6054726
15 99 -4.59511985 -6.34727596 99.8251551
100
Modelo potencial: Y =
1+exp(5.892606890.81599219)
Comparacin de YC vs Y
YC Y Diferencia
(%)
0.27521775 4 0.953294398
0.62022924 6 0.877826213
1.39170948 9 0.673355367
3.09293988 16 0.102098166
6.73179069 24 -
1.560942341
14.0318644 32 -
6.741094983
26.9599843 48 -
26.05050199
45.4957055 58 -
250.8283662
65.3697182 65 103.8908652
81.0201934 79 56.8250668
90.6133664 87 40.9650538
95.6198908 91 32.01211932
98.0146065 94 26.13646599
99.1122266 97 22.01932085
99.6054726 98 19.00765911
99.8251551 99 16.72724357
Comparacion entre graficas
120
100
80
Y 60
YC
40
Y
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
X
MODELO EXPONENCIAL
10
0
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
26.182
= = = 0.288
^2 90.89
= 3.7467 + 0.288
Se procede a hacer el ajuste por una funcin exponencial: La funcin exponencial buscada es
log() = log() +
4.7696
= = = 0.0525
^2 90.89
Por lo tanto, la funcin exponencial que mejor se ajusta a las observaciones es:
= 3.5220.052
10
8
y = 0.2881x + 3.7467
6
0
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30