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India - Cement Annual report

analysis
26 August 2016 Institutional Equities

ROE likely to begin long awaited ascent With the monsoon progressing favourably so far in FY17, we believe a
revival in rural housing is likely to accelerate demand growth in FY18.
DD MMM YYYY
Our analysis of FY16 annual reports of all cement companies in ROE likely to have bottomed out after declining for nine years:
our universe reflects the long overdue deceleration in capacity Cement sector ROE correlates highly with industry utilisation. With
expansions with the sector hitting an all-time low utilisation of continuous decline in utilisation since FY07, ROEs have been dipping
~66% in the year. Along with deceleration in gross block simultaneously. ROE declined 86bps in FY16 to ~9.2% as against a
growth, CWIP and capital commitments as a percentage of gross peak level of ~42% in FY07 when industry utilisation was at 99%. Even
block have declined for most companies in our coverage. This is after accounting for downside risks to our volume growth estimate of
likely to make room for uptick in ROE and ease pressure on free 6%, a marginal uptick in utilisation levels is likely to improve pricing
cash flows. ROE for the sector, which was at its peak of 42% in power of players and be a precursor to the impending uptick in sectoral
FY07, has been consistently declining due to falling utilisation ROE.
and touched close to all time lows of ~9% in FY16. We believe
that the sector is likely to register an uptick in utilisation and Deceleration in capacity expansion boosts free cash flows for
propel ROE in the coming year, given slowdown in capacity our universe: Despite a single-digit improvement in Ebitda in FY16,
expansion. free cash flows for our cement universe more than doubled to Rs50bn
(Rs18bn last year). For most companies in our universe, free cash flows
Companies positive on acceleration of volume growth in FY17; turned positive in FY16. Capex for our universe declined from Rs78bn in
the wait may extend to FY18: All the companies in our sector have FY15 to Rs56bn in FY16, boosting free cash flows. We expect effective
indicated that demand growth is likely to accelerate from FY17 onwards capacity Cagr for the industry to decelerate from 7% over FY12-16 to
and most are of the opinion that demand growth for the year will be at 2% over FY16-18. This is likely to be the key driver improvement in
~7% vs. 5% in FY16. However, YTD FY17 numbers are in low single utilisation over the next 2 years. Substantial improvement in pricing
digits. Given a steep base of 11.5% growth in 4QFY16, we believe there discipline in the southern region and benign petcoke costs led to 3%
is downside risk to our current estimate of industry growth at 6% and a improvement in Ebitda per tonne to Rs748 for the industry.
deceleration in demand growth is not entirely ruled out.

ExcerptsofcompanyoutlookforFY17
ACC ACEM JKLC ICEM TRCL SRCM UTCEM PRSC HEIM
Overallcement Withsubstantialsurplus TheIndustryis Withtheemphasis Thereductionininterestrates, Overallpickupobservedin Cementsectoris Goingahead, Weexpectthecement
demandinthe capacity,thecementindustryis hopefulof andfocusbeing moderateinflation,availabilityof theinfrastructurespending poisedforapick demandisexpected demandtogrowinthe
calendaryear2016is atrelativelylowlevelsof seeingatleast8% giventoambitious loansforhousingandthetaxbenefits bytheGovernmentand upingrowth togrowatafaster rangeof67%during
estimatedtogrowata capacityutilisation,withits growthincement projectslikeMakein areexpectedtoencourage downwardtrendinthe around7%inFY ratethaninFY16 FY17.Thefactorsthatare
ratefasterthanthe concomitanteffectsonoverall demandintheFY India,SmartCities interestratesisexpectedto 1617.The drivenby likelytoactascatalysts
investmentsinresidentialhousing
precedingyear,if profitability.Utilisationhasto 201617witha Mission,Housingfor sector.Subsequenttothebifurcationof revivethedemandacross Governments Governmentspend includeGovernments
supportedbyafaster improveforrecoveryofcapital possible2%upside allschemesand sectors.Thenewcapacity pushonthe onroad,dedicated continuedthruston
AndhraPradeshintoTelanganaand
paceofinfrastructure investmentandforthis,cement onaccountofthe creationofnew additionshavealsoslowed infrastructure freightcorridor, executionofvarious
AndhraPradesh,infrastructureactivities
development,housing demandhastogetbackto+6% policiesand capitalforAndhra downconsiderably. frontwillgivean metros,irrigation, infrastructureprojects,
areexpectedtogetafillipintheRegion.
andindustrialgrowth. growth.Weexpectmuchofthis schemes Pradesh,therecould Therefore,theoutlookfor addedimpetusto 'HousingforAll', affordablehousingand
Consumptioncould incrementaldemandtocome announcedbythe bea Allthesewillpositivelyimpactthe thecementsectorlooks thecement 'SmartCities'and urbanrejuvenationunder
pickupwellbeyond fromGovernmentbacked Government. furtheracceleration demandforcementinfutureandthe better. industry. SwachhBharat thesmartcity
6%. projects. inthedemand industryisexpectedtogrowat7to8% Mission. programme.
growth. forthefinancialyear201617.
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch
J Radhakrishnan | radhakrishnan@iiflcap.com Krithika Subramanian | krithika.subramanian@iiflcap.com
91 22 4646 4653 91 22 46464696
Institutional Equities India - Cement

Increase in gross block at 7% as against a three-year average of CWIP+capital commitments as a percentage of gross block declined for
11%: We expect effective capacity Cagr to decelerate from 8% over most producers in our universe. As a whole, they declined from 11% in
FY12-FY15 to 2% over FY16-18. Average increase in gross block for our FY15 to 8% in FY16. Major capacity additions in FY17 are in the eastern
universe for 3/5/8 years has been at 11%/11%/16%. The same region with likely capacity growth of 13% (10 mn t) against 3% growth
declined to 7% in FY16, improving visibility on improvement in return for the whole industry. The eastern region is the only one where we
ratios for the sector. We expect gross block growth to decelerate further currently expect a decline in utilisation over the next three years.
in FY17 and FY18, based on capacity expansion plans announced.

Capexsummarycompanywise
ACC ACEM UTCEM SRCM JKLC ICEM TRCL PRSC HEIM Avg
FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 9MFY16 FY16 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16
Capitalcommitmentsas
5.2 2.6 3.7 2.7 4.3 2.6 2.9 2.1 3.0 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 0.4 3.5 2.1
a%ofgrossblock(%)
CWIPasa%ofgross
17.5 20.9 6.0 3.4 6.6 4.0 5.9 2.8 8.8 6.4 1.3 1.3 3.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 5.0 2.0 7.0 5.4
block
Grossblock(Rsbn) 110 114 114 120 339 368 86 96 41 45 68 69 72 76 40 42 26 27 895 956
Increase(%) 3.7 5.1 8.8 11.0 8.8 1.3 4.9 4.6 7.4 6.8
Capex(Rsbn) 15 12 8 6 27 21 15 7 5 2 1 2 4 3 2 2 0 1 78 56
FCFF(Rsbn) (3) 3 12 13 12 18 (1) 4 (3) (0) (0) 3 2 7 (1) 1 1 0 18 50
FCFFyield(%) (0.9) 1.1 2.8 3.2 1.1 1.7 (0.1) 0.7 (6.5) (0.3) (0.0) 6.0 1.7 5.1 (2.5) 1.7 3.1 1.1 0.7 1.9
NetD/E(x) (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) 0.3 0.2 0.0 (0.0) 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.2
Note:Yieldcalculatedusingpricesasatcloseofbusinesson25thAugust2016
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch

Grossblockgrowthtodeceleratefurthergoingforward
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17ii FY18ii
Grossblockforouruniverse(Rsmn) 572,774 641,831 699,563 783,267 895,386 956,226 1,012,540 1,049,140
Growth(%) 12.1 9.0 12.0 14.3 6.8 5.9 3.6
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch

2
Institutional Equities India - Cement

FY16 ROE close to 15-year low; revival likely in FY17: Low Figure2: Universe utilisationvsindustryutilisation
utilisations have tested pricing discipline of producers over the past six
(%) Industryutilisation Universeutilisation
years. After declining for eight years, ROE of the cement sector eroded
further by 86bps, bringing it close to all-time lows of 9.2%. This is as 105
against the peak of 41.6% in FY07 when sector utilisation was at 99%. 100
Deceleration in capacity additions and acceleration in demand growth in 95
the medium term should lead to improvement in utilisation and 90
subsequently in ROE. 85
80
Due to severe infighting in the northern region during the year, FY16
prices in the northern region declined 7% YoY. This led to 200bps 75
decline in ROE for north-based producers in our universe. However, 70
pricing discipline in the southern region improved substantially with 65
prices improving 8% YoY, despite this being the only region to register a 60
decline in volumes in the year. FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Source:Industry,Companies,IIFLResearch
Figure1: UniverseROEvsindustryutilisationtrend ROElikelytohavebottomedout
inFY16 Figure3: DuPont analysisforouruniverse
(%) ROE(LHS) IndustryUtilisation (RHS) (%) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16FY17iiFY18ii
48 105 Operatingmargin 25.3 27.2 21.8 21.9 12.4 14.0 15.1 9.3 9.7 9.6 13.7 16.2
43 100 Nonoperatingeffect 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Correlation=78%
38 95 Taxeffect 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
33 90 Assetturnover 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
85 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
28 Equitymultiplier
80
23 ROE 41.6 33.8 24.5 23.9 13.8 16.5 17.5 10.7 10.1 9.2 14.0 15.7
75
18 Source:Companies,IIFLResearch
70
13 65
Dividend payout declines in FY16 despite low capex: Despite low
8 60
capex for producers as well as comfortable debt/equity ratios for most
FY17ii

FY18ii
FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

companies, dividend payout ratio for our universe has declined from
36% in FY15 to 25% in FY16. Most mid-caps maintained their dividend
Source:Industry,IIFLResearch outflow despite low profitability whereas large-caps reduced their
payout ratio this year, bringing down the industry average. Average net
debt/equity continues to remain sub 1x for our universe. Going forward,
there is a possibility of higher payouts for the sector, assuming no
inorganic expansions by producers in our universe.

3
Institutional Equities India - Cement

Figure4: Payoutratiosdeclinedforlargecaps,pullingdowntheindustryaverageto Figure5: Benignpowerandfuelcosts akeydriverofprofitabilityinFY16


25%(36%inFY15) ACC ACEM UTCEM SRCM SRCM JKLC ICEM TRCL Avg
(%) FY15 FY16 P&Fcostpertonne(Rs) 1,013 943 860 518 1,018 747 1,084 728 860
80 74 Growth(%YoY) 0.5 (7.8) (17.3) (16.4) (2.1) (9.9) (13.1) (20.7) (12.2)
ShareofPetcokeinfuel
70 17 40 69 100 60 75 25 100 NA
60 mix(approx)
60 53 50 Cementpertonnecost
50 2.7 0.0 (4.3) (3.5) (2.0) (2.1) (0.4) (9.1) (2.5)
growth(%YoY)
40 Ebitdapertonne(Rs) 496 659 886 786 474 369 863 1,432 748
30 YoYGrowth(%) (3.9) (21.4) 3.2 5.5 (11.9) (37.0) 31.0 77.9 2.5
20 18 21
20 15 17 15 13 12 11
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch

10 Figure6: Petcokecosttrend
0 0 0 0 0
0
ACC ACEM HEIM ICEM JKLC PRSC SRCM TRCL UTCEM (Rs pertonne)
Note:SRCMpayoutfor9MFY16 6500
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch 6000
5500
Power and fuel cost a key differentiator during the year: Low 5000
petcoke costs came to the aid of most producers in amid infighting 4500
during the year. Petcoke costs more than halved from ~USD90 to
4000
USD40 towards end-FY16. Ebitda per tonne for our universe improved
3% in FY16 to Rs748/tonne primarily owing to strong improvement in 3500
discipline in the southern region. Benign petcoke costs cushioned the 3000

5Dec15
5Aug15

5Oct15
5Apr15

5Apr16
5Nov15

5Jan16
5Feb15

5May15

5Sep15

5Feb16

5May16
5Jun15
5Jul15

5Jun16
5Jul16
5Mar15

5Mar16
fall in Ebitda for most north-based producers. Energy costs per tonne
reduced 12% YoY in FY16.

However, since the beginning of FY17, petcoke prices have sharply Source:Industry,IIFLResearch
increased by more than 60% from their lows in Jan 2016. Although
most companies in our coverage have long-term contracts/petcoke
inventory, the impact is likely to reflect from 3QFY17. Given low
capacity additions, we expect the companies to pass on the increases in
petcoke partially or producers may shift to coal in case this is not
lucrative. YTD average petcoke cost for FY17 is up ~20% vs. 4QFY16
average; producers indicate that on a kcal basis, petcoke continues to
be 10% cheaper than imported coal.

4
Institutional Equities India - Cement

Figure7: Petcokecostvsnorthernregioncementpriceperbag indexedtoDecember Figure8: Cashconversioncycle marginalimprovementforouruniversedueto


2014prices increaseincreditordays;specificallyforlargecaps
(days) FY15 FY16
(x) Petcokeprices Cementprices
1.3 80
60
1.2
40
1.1 20
1.0 0
0.9 (20)
0.8 (40)
(60)
0.7
(80)
0.6
(100)
Apr15

Apr16
Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Jun15
Jul15

Jun16
Jul16
Dec14

Mar15

Dec15

Mar16
Oct15
Aug15

Aug16
Jan15

Nov15

Jan16
May15

May16
ACC ACEM UTCEM SRCM JKLC ICEM TRCL PRSC HEIM
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch
Source:Industry,IIFLResearch
Our universe net debt/equity marginally declines to 0.15x: With
most large caps being net cash, net debt/equity for our universe is low
Cash conversion cycle Marginal improvement in FY16: Most
at 0.15x for FY16 vs. 0.21x in FY15. The highest net/debt to equity ratio
cement companies continue to have a negative cash conversion cycle
in our universe was that for Prism Cement at 2.2x due to erosion of
owing to most dealers making payments within 10 days to avail cash
book value led by losses for the past five years. The company is likely to
discounts and low inventory days due to its perishable nature. WC days
break even in FY17, led by an expected substantial improvement in
(including loans and advances/provision) improved marginally by 3 days
utilisation in the central region.
in FY16 owing to increase in creditor days. Average cash conversion
continues to be negative 26 days for our universe. The highest Figure9: Netdebt/equityforcompaniesinouruniverse
deterioration in WC days was in case of India Cements where it (x) FY15 FY16
increased from -16 days in FY15 to 7 days in FY16 owing to a sharp 17- 2.5
day fall in trade payables days.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
(0.5)
(1.0)
ACEM ACC SRCM Avg UTCEM ICEM TRCL HEIM JKLC PRSC
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch

5
Institutional Equities India - Cement

Company wise DuPont analysis

Prism
EBITMargins
FY08
34.3
FY09
20.8
FY10
15.2
FY11
6.4
FY12
2.2
FY13
1.6
FY14
(1.4)
FY15
2.4
FY16
2.7
ACC FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Non.OpEffect 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 (0.2) (1.1) 2.0 (0.5) (0.4)
EBITMargins 22.9 17.4 24.6 13.5 11.8 12.6 7.3 6.0 4.6 TaxEffect 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8
Non.OpEffect 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 AssetTurnover 1.5 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6
TaxEffect 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 EquityMultiplier 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.4
AssetTurnover 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 RoE 46.2 14.0 29.3 8.5 (1.2) (5.4) (8.7) (5.5) (5.3)
EquityMultiplier 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 ShreeCement FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
RoE 33.2 23.5 29.3 16.4 16.0 19.7 11.6 10.7 7.2 EBITMargins 18.2 27.5 24.1 4.6 13.1 19.7 13.6 6.3 7.4
AmbujaCements FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Non.OpEffect 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
EBITMargins 32.1 24.4 22.2 19.4 17.4 19.1 12.0 13.6 8.7 TaxEffect 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9
Non.OpEffect 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 AssetTurnover 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
TaxEffect 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 EquityMultiplier 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3
AssetTurnover 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 RoE 50.9 64.7 45.5 11.1 26.7 30.9 19.7 9.2 9.4
EquityMultiplier 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 RamcoCements FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
RoE 29.1 21.2 20.1 17.4 16.3 18.7 11.3 13.1 8.5 EBITMargins 32.8 25.3 23.6 15.2 20.5 18.0 5.7 11.6 21.9
HeidelbergCement FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Non.OpEffect 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9
EBITMargins 15.1 8.6 14.3 8.1 2.9 4.5 0.2 7.5 7.2 TaxEffect 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8
Non.OpEffect 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 (26.7) 0.4 0.4 AssetTurnover 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
TaxEffect 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 (0.0) 0.8 EquityMultiplier 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3
AssetTurnover 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 RoE 50.5 33.2 25.4 12.9 20.4 18.3 4.8 9.4 19.6
EquityMultiplier 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.4 Ultratech FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
RoE 19.8 28.2 21.4 8.4 3.6 4.7 (3.3) (0.1) 4.4 EBITMargins 26.9 22.3 23.2 13.6 16.1 17.3 12.5 12.2 12.9
IndiaCements FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Non.OpEffect 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
EBITMargins 31.6 23.1 15.7 5.4 15.5 12.2 5.9 9.6 13.2 TaxEffect 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7
Non.OpEffect 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 (0.1) 0.1 0.4 AssetTurnover 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
TaxEffect 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 EquityMultiplier 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
AssetTurnover 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 RoE 45.2 31.0 26.6 18.4 20.5 19.1 13.6 11.6 11.4
EquityMultiplier 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Source:Companies,IIFLResearch
RoE 21.5 12.5 9.1 1.6 7.1 4.5 (0.9) 0.8 3.5
JKLakshmi FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
EBITMargins 26.4 19.7 23.1 7.5 11.2 13.6 8.1 10.3 3.9
Non.OpEffect 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 (0.2)
TaxEffect 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 (0.7)
AssetTurnover 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8
EquityMultiplier 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6
RoE 46.3 24.2 26.0 5.7 13.3 15.8 8.7 12.1 1.3

6
Institutional Equities India - Cement

Figure10:Industrydemandsupplyscenario Figure13:Easternregiondemandsupplyscenario
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii
Yearendcementcapacity(mtpa) 333 371 392 420 440 453 462 483 Yearendcementcapacity(mtpa) 48 56 58 67 74 84 90 91
Capacitygrowth(%) 6 12 6 7 5 3 2 5 Capacitygrowth(%) 18 18 2 17 10 13 7 1
Effectivecementcapacity(mtpa) 322 356 382 402 428 442 450 464 Effectivecementcapacity(mtpa) 43 49 55 59 69 75 80 86
Effectivecapacitygrowth(%) 15 15 13 7 17 8 6 8
Effectivecapacitygrowth(%) 10 10 7 5 6 3 2 3
Production/Despatch(mtpa) 33 36 37 39 43 46 49 53
Production/Despatch(mtpa) 230 248 256 270 283 300 319 339
Production/Despatchgrowth(%) 8 8 3 6 10 7 7 8
Production/Despatchgrowth(%) 7 8 3 6 5 6 6 6 Capacityutilisation(%) 78 73 67 66 63 62 62 62
Capacityutilisation(%) 72 70 67 67 66 68 71 73 Source:CMA,Industry,IIFLResearch
Source:CMA,CSO,Industry,IIFLResearch
Figure14:Southernregiondemandsupplyscenario
Figure11:Northernregiondemandsupplyscenario FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii Yearendcementcapacity(mtpa) 132 149 149 157 160 160 163 171
Yearendcementcapacity(mtpa) 68 73 85 90 97 99 99 108 Capacitygrowth(%) 6 13 0 5 2 0 2 5
Capacitygrowth(%) 1 8 16 6 8 2 9 Effectivecementcapacity(mtpa) 127 146 149 152 159 160 162 166
Effectivecementcapacity(mtpa) 67 72 80 88 94 98 99 101 Effectivecapacitygrowth(%) 12 14 2 2 4 1 1 3
Effectivecapacitygrowth(%) 4 7 11 10 7 5 1 2 Production/Despatch(mtpa) 71 79 77 78 77 80 84 91
Production/Despatch(mtpa) 56 60 65 71 76 82 88 93 Production/Despatchgrowth(%) 3 11 (2) 0 (1) 4 6 8
Capacityutilisation(%) 55 54 52 51 48 50 52 54
Production/Despatchgrowth(%) 9 6 8 9 8 7 8 6
Source:CMA,Industry,IIFLResearch
Capacityutilisation(%) 84 83 81 80 81 83 88 92
Source:CMA,Industry,IIFLResearch
Figure15:Westernregiondemandsupplyscenario
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii
Figure12:Centralregiondemandsupplyscenario
Yearendcementcapacity(mtpa) 48 50 50 55 56 56 56 56
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17ii FY18ii FY19ii
Capacitygrowth(%) 3 4 1 10 2
Yearendcementcapacity(mtpa) 37 43 50 50 53 53 53 57
Effectivecementcapacity(mtpa) 48 48 50 52 55 56 56 56
Capacitygrowth(%) 3 16 17 5 1 8
Effectivecapacitygrowth(%) 11 1 3 5 6 2
Effectivecementcapacity(mtpa) 37 41 48 50 51 53 53 54
Production/Despatch(mtpa) 37 39 40 43 44 47 49 51
Effectivecapacitygrowth(%) 7 11 16 5 2 4 0 1
Production/Despatchgrowth(%) 14 5 2 8 3 5 6 3
Production/Despatch(mtpa) 33 35 37 40 42 46 49 52
Capacityutilisation(%) 77 81 80 82 80 83 88 91
Production/Despatchgrowth(%) 4 6 6 7 6 9 7 6
Source:CMA,Industry,IIFLResearch
Capacityutilisation(%) 89 85 78 79 82 87 92 97
Source:CMA,Industry,IIFLResearch

7
Institutional Equities India - Cement

Figure16:Forthcomingcementplants(includingordersinpipeline)
Company Capacity Expecteddateof Location
(mtpa) commissioning
NorthZone
UdaipurCementWorks 1.8 2HFY17 Udaipur,Rajasthan
AmbujaCement 4.5 2HFY19 Mundwa,Rajasthan
ShreeCement 4.0 2HFY19 Ras,Rajasthan
Northsubtotal 10.3
SouthZone
RamcoCement 0.8 2HFY17 Jaggayapet,AP
MyHomeIndustries 1.2 1HFY18 Tuticorin,TN
NCLIndustries 0.7 1HFY18 Simhapuri,AP
KCP 1.7 1HFY19 Muktyala,AP
ShreeCement 4.0 2HFY19 Gulbarga,Karnataka
TNCement 1.0 2HFY18 Alangulam,TN
Others 2.0 1HFY19
Southsubtotal 11.4
CentralZone
Jaypee 4.0 2HFY19 Bara,UP
Centralsubtotal 4.0
EastZone
ACC 3.5 1HFY17 Jamul,Chhattisgarh
EmamiCement 3.2 1HFY17 Raipur,Chhattisgarh
JKLakshmi 0.6 2HFY17 Raipur,Chhattisgarh
JSWCement 2.4 2HFY17 Salboni,WestBengal
JKLakshmi 0.3 1HFY18 Raipur,Chhattisgarh
ShreeCement 5.6 2HFY18 Chhattisgarh/Bihar
Others 1.0 1HFY19
Eastsubtotal 16.6
AllIndiaTotal 42.3
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch

8
Institutional Equities India - Cement

FY16summary
ACC ACEM UTCEM SRCM JKLC ICEM TRCL PRSC HEIM Universe
FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16
Volumes(mnt) 24.2 23.6 22.2 21.8 45.6 49.3 16.2 18.6 6.0 7.3 9.1 8.7 7.7 7.2 5.6 5.3 4.3 4.4 140.7 146.3
Volumegrowth(%YoY) 1.2 (2.4) 2.5 (1.6) 7.3 8.1 13.4 15.0 5.8 22.7 (9.3) (4.4) (10.8) (5.6) 9.0 (5.5) 15.8 4.3 4.0 4.0
YearendCapacity(mnt) 27.8 27.8 25.6 26.5 60.1 65.6 18.7 23.6 8.4 9.3 13.3 13.3 12.5 12.5 7.0 7.0 5.4 5.4 178.8 190.9
Utilisation#(%) 87.1 85.0 91.2 84.2 77.6 79.3 88.3 83.7 88.1 86.1 68.3 65.3 60.9 57.4 80.0 75.5 78.8 82.2 80.8 79.1
Capacitygrowth(%YoY) 9.9 3.5 11.7 9.2 8.1 26.2 27.2 10.1 7.1 6.8
Realisationpertonne(Rs) 4,742 4,838 4,475 4,298 4,967 4,817 3,548 3,492 3,869 3,582 4,608 4,795 4,617 4,898 3,932 3,834 3,796 3,667 4,701 4,445
Realisationgrowth(%YoY) 4.0 2.0 6.4 (4.0) 5.2 (3.0) (3.4) (1.6) 6.1 (7.4) 0.1 0.0 11.4 6.1 3.7 (2.5) (0.2) (3.4) 4.7 (1.7)
ROE(%) 10.7 7.2 13.1 8.5 11.6 11.4 9.2 9.4 12.1 1.3 0.8 3.5 9.4 19.6 (5.5) (5.3) (0.1) 4.4 10.1 9.2
ROCE(%) 13.7 9.6 17.3 11.7 12.1 11.3 8.4 9.7 8.1 4.8 6.4 8.2 8.4 13.3 6.3 6.0 7.1 7.4 10.8 10.5
Note:#Utilisationcalculatedoneffectivecapacity
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch

Valuationsnapshot
CMP Market EVRating Ebitda EV/Ebitda(x) PER(x) ROE P/BV Cementcapacity Cementcapacity EV/tonne Previousupcyclepeak
(Rs) cap(US$m) (Rsper (%) (x) (mtpa) CAGR(%) (US$) EV/tonneValuation(USD)
(US$m) tonne) FY18ii FY18ii FY13
FY17ii FY18ii FY17ii FY18ii FY16 FY19ii FY16FY19ii FY18ii
FY18ii FY16
ACC* 1,650 4,629 4,529 ADD 748 20.1 14.4 37.8 27.8 11.9 3.2 27.8 31.3 0.0 4.0 137 259
AmbujaCements* 265 7,867 7,215 ADD 890 19.7 15.0 30.7 26.1 12.5 3.1 26.5 42.2 4.3 16.6 194 297
HeidelbergCement 137 465 635 BUY 918 12.6 8.1 26.0 12.7 21.6 2.5 5.4 5.4 8.7 0.2 105 66
IndiaCements 144 660 1,162 BUY 846 10.1 8.2 27.4 17.3 6.6 1.1 14.9 14.9 0.0 0.0 75 276
JKLakshmiCement 451 791 1,079 BUY 766 14.2 9.6 31.9 19.2 16.9 3.0 9.9 11.9 19.6 6.3 86 102
PrismCement# 115 864 1,203 ADD 973 12.3 8.2 32.1 14.4 28.8 3.6 7.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 100 233
TheRamcoCements# 552 1,961 2,486 BUY 1,361 14.2 12.2 20.4 18.4 18.0 3.1 12.7 13.4 1.8 1.9 167 221
ShreeCement# 17,025 8,853 8,798 BUY 1,373 19.5 15.4 29.4 23.3 27.2 5.6 23.6 40.0 20.8 19.0 280 164
UltraTechCement 3,820 15,645 16,707 BUY 1,112 20.6 16.3 37.4 28.2 14.7 3.9 65.6 65.6 6.8 0.0 242 206
Note:*CY16iiandCY17iinumbers;#EV/tonneadjustedforothersegments;pricesasatcloseofbusinesson25thAugust2016
Source:Companies,IIFLResearch

9
Institutional Equities India - Cement

Disclosure : Published in 2016, India Infoline Ltd 2016

India Infoline Group (hereinafter referred as IIFL) is engaged in diversified financial services business including equity broking, DP services, merchant banking, portfolio management services, distribution of Mutual Fund,
insurance products and other investment products and also loans and finance business. India Infoline Ltd (hereinafter referred as IIL) is a part of the IIFL and is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited
(NSE) and the BSE Limited (BSE). IIL is also a Depository Participant registered with NSDL & CDSL, a SEBI registered merchant banker and a SEBI registered portfolio manager. IIL is a large broking house catering to
retail, HNI and institutional clients. It operates through its branches and authorised persons and sub-brokers spread across the country and the clients are provided online trading through internet and offline trading
through branches and Customer Care.
a) This research report (Report) is for the personal information of the authorized recipient(s) and is not for public distribution and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or in any form without
IILs prior permission. The information provided in the Report is from publicly available data, which we believe, are reliable. While reasonable endeavors have been made to present reliable data in the Report so far as
it relates to current and historical information, but IIL does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data in the Report. Accordingly, IIL or any of its connected persons including its directors or subsidiaries
or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained, views and opinions expressed in this
publication.
b) Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and
estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment of its original date of publication by IIFL and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial
instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of
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c) The Report also includes analysis and views of our research team. The Report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to
buy/sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the Report are our current opinions as of the date of the Report and may be subject to change from time to time without notice. IIL or any persons connected with it
do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.
d) Investors should not solely rely on the information contained in this Report and must make investment decisions based on their own investment objectives, judgment, risk profile and financial position. The recipients
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therefore, may at times have, different and contrary views on stocks, sectors and markets.
f) This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication,
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g) As IIL along with its associates, are engaged in various financial services business and so might have financial, business or other interests in other entities including the subject company(ies) mentioned in this Report.
However, IIL encourages independence in preparation of research report and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. IIL and its associates did not receive any compensation or other benefits
from the subject company(ies) mentioned in the Report or from a third party in connection with preparation of the Report. Accordingly, IIL and its associates do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of
publication of this Report.
h) As IIL and its associates are engaged in various financial services business, it might have:-
(a) received any compensation (except in connection with the preparation of this Report) from the subject company in the past twelve months; (b) managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject
company in the past twelve months; (c) received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (d) received any
compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (e) engaged in market making activity for the
subject company.
i) IIL and its associates collectively do not own (in their proprietary position) 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication
of the research report.
j) The Research Analyst engaged in preparation of this Report or his/her relative:-
(a) does not have any financial interests in the subject company (ies) mentioned in this report; (b) does not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the subject company mentioned in the report as of the last day
of the month preceding the publication of the research report; (c) does not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report.
k) The Research Analyst engaged in preparation of this Report:-
(a) has not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (b) has not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months; (c)
has not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (d) has not received any compensation for products or
services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months; (e) has not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject
company or third party in connection with the research report; (f) has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company; (g) is not engaged in market making activity for the subject company.
L) IIFLCAP accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor. The analyst
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therefore, may not be subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on IIL by any regulatory authority impacting Equity Research Analysis.

10
Institutional Equities India - Cement

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at http://www.nseindia.com/ChartApp/install/charts/mainpage.jsp, www.bseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes.
(Choose a company from the list on the browser and select the three years period in the price chart).

Name, Qualification and Certification of Research Analyst:

India Infoline Limited (Formerly India Infoline Distribution Company Limited), CIN No.: U99999MH1996PLC132983, Corporate Office IIFL Centre, Kamala City, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai
400013 Tel: (91-22) 4249 9000 .Fax: (91-22) 40609049, Regd. Office IIFL House, Sun Infotech Park, Road No. 16V, Plot No. B-23, MIDC, Thane Industrial Area, Wagle Estate, Thane 400604 Tel: (91-22) 25806650.
Fax: (91-22) 25806654 E-mail: mail@indiainfoline.com Website: www.indiainfoline.com, Refer www.indiainfoline.com for detail of Associates.
National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. SEBI Regn. No. : INB231097537/ INF231097537/ INE231097537, Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. SEBI Regn. No.:INB011097533/ INF011097533/ BSE-Currency, MCX Stock
Exchange Ltd. SEBI Regn. No.: INB261097530/ INF261097530/ INE261097537, United Stock Exchange Ltd. SEBI Regn. No.: INE271097532, PMS SEBI Regn. No. INP000002213, IA SEBI Regn. No. INA000000623, SEBI
RA Regn.:- INH000000248

Key to our recommendation structure

BUY - Absolute - Stock expected to give a positive return of over 20% over a 1-year horizon.

SELL - Absolute - Stock expected to fall by more than 10% over a 1-year horizon.

In addition, Add and Reduce recommendations are based on expected returns relative to a hurdle rate. Investment horizon for Add and Reduce recommendations is up to a year. We assume the current hurdle rate at
10%, this being the average return on a debt instrument available for investment.

Add - Stock expected to give a return of 0-10% over the hurdle rate, i.e. a positive return of 10%+.
Reduce - Stock expected to return less than the hurdle rate, i.e. return of less than 10%.

Distribution of Ratings: Out of 199 stocks rated in the IIFL coverage universe, 116 have BUY ratings, 8 have SELL ratings, 54 have ADD ratings and 21 have REDUCE ratings.

Price Target: Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as
comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analysts views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there is a
significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the companys products. Such demand
variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain industries,
in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and political and social conditions. This
discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive further information is available upon request.

ACC:3yearpriceandratinghistory Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Recochangeddate
2,000 24 Oct 2013 1157 1078 REDUCE 29 Apr 2016 1438 1500 ADD
07 Feb 2014 1019 1010 REDUCE 27 Jul 2016 1676 1720 ADD
1,500 25 Apr 2014 1347 1257 REDUCE
03 Jun 2014 1381 1422 ADD
1,000 25 Jul 2014 1463 1505 ADD
500 09 Sep 2014 1549 1567 ADD
15 Apr 2015 1596 1625 ADD
0 20 Jul 2015 1486 1540 ADD
21 Oct 2015 1379 1480 ADD
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
Sep13

Feb14

Sep14

Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Jun14
Jul14

Jun15
Jul15

Jun16
Jul16
Dec13

Mar14

Dec14

Mar15

Dec15

Mar16
Aug13
Oct13

Aug14
Oct14

Aug15
Oct15

Aug16
Nov13
Jan14

Nov14
Jan15

Nov15
Jan16
May14

May15

May16

21 Dec 2015 1350 1360 ADD


11 Feb 2016 1266 1420 ADD
30 Mar 2016 1366 1545 ADD

11
Institutional Equities India - Cement

AmbujaCements:3yearpriceandratinghistory Date Close price Target price Rating


(Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
Price TP/Recochangeddate
350 24 Oct 2013 197 157 SELL
300 07 Feb 2014 156 155 SELL
250 25 Apr 2014 219 194 SELL
200 03 Jun 2014 223 230 ADD
150 25 Jul 2014 218 236 ADD
100 31 Oct 2014 224 242 ADD
50 19 Feb 2015 270 278 ADD
0 30 Apr 2015 238 246 ADD
29 Oct 2015 209 220 ADD
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
Sep13

Feb14

Sep14

Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Jun14
Jul14

Jun15
Jul15

Jun16
Jul16
Dec13

Mar14

Dec14

Mar15

Dec15

Mar16
Aug13
Oct13

Aug14
Oct14

Aug15
Oct15

Aug16
Nov13
Jan14

Nov14
Jan15

Nov15
Jan16
May14

May15

May16
21 Dec 2015 200 211 ADD
30 Mar 2016 231 242 ADD
27 Jul 2016 270 290 ADD

GrasimIndustries:3yearpriceandratinghistory
(Rs) Price TP/Recochangeddate Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs)
7,000
6,000 05 Aug 2013 2541 3484 BUY
5,000 19 Sep 2013 2519 3010 BUY
4,000 03 Feb 2014 2565 2830 BUY
3,000 03 Jun 2014 3157 3713 BUY
2,000 17 Jun 2014 3535 4634 BUY
1,000 04 Aug 2014 3218 4662 BUY
0 12 Sep 2014 3622 5030 BUY
01 Oct 2015 3529 5383 BUY
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
Sep13

Feb14

Sep14

Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Jun14
Jul14

Jun15
Jul15

Jun16
Jul16
Dec13

Mar14

Dec14

Mar15

Dec15

Mar16
Aug13
Oct13

Aug14
Oct14

Aug15
Oct15

Aug16
Nov13
Jan14

Nov14
Jan15

Nov15
Jan16
May14

May15

May16

21 Dec 2015 3722 5118 BUY


02 Feb 2016 3438 5342 BUY
01 Apr 2016 3844 5596 BUY
15 Jun 2016 4272 6050 BUY

HeidelbergCement:3yearpriceandratinghistory
(Rs) Price TP/Recochangeddate Date Close price Target price Rating
160 (Rs) (Rs)
140 28 Aug 2015 73 126 BUY
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
Sep13

Feb14

Sep14

Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Dec13

Mar14

Jun14
Jul14

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15
Jul15

Dec15

Mar16

Jun16
Jul16
Aug13
Oct13

Aug14
Oct14

Aug15
Oct15

Aug16
Nov13
Jan14

Nov14
Jan15

Nov15
Jan16
May14

May15

May16

12
(Rs)
(Rs)

20
40
60
80

0
0

100
120
140
100
200
300
400
500
600
(Rs)

50
0
100
150
200
250
Aug13 Aug13
Sep13 Sep13 Aug13
Oct13 Oct13 Sep13
Nov13 Nov13 Oct13
Dec13 Dec13 Nov13
Jan14 Jan14 Dec13
Feb14 Feb14 Jan14
Mar14 Mar14 Feb14
Apr14 Apr14 Mar14
May14 May14 Apr14
Jun14 Jun14 May14
Jun14
Institutional Equities

Jul14 Jul14
Aug14 Aug14 Jul14
Sep14 Sep14 Aug14

Price
Price
Oct14 Oct14 Sep14
Price

Nov14 Nov14 Oct14


Dec14 Dec14 Nov14
Jan15 Jan15 Dec14
Feb15 Feb15 Jan15
Mar15 Mar15 Feb15
Apr15 Apr15 Mar15

PrismCement:3yearpriceandratinghistory
May15 May15 Apr15
IndiaCements:3yearpriceandratinghistory

Jun15 Jun15 May15


Jul15 Jul15 Jun15

JKLakshmiCement:3yearpriceandratinghistory
Aug15 Aug15 Jul15
Sep15 Sep15 Aug15
Oct15 Oct15 Sep15
Nov15 Nov15 Oct15

TP/Recochangeddate
TP/Recochangeddate Nov15
TP/Recochangeddate

Dec15 Dec15
Jan16 Jan16 Dec15
Feb16 Feb16 Jan16
Mar16 Mar16 Feb16
Apr16 Apr16 Mar16
May16 May16 Apr16
Jun16 Jun16 May16
Jul16 Jul16 Jun16
Aug16 Aug16 Jul16
Aug16
21 Dec
18 Dec
19 Aug
03 Jun

13 Jul
2015
2014
2014

Date
2014
Date

2016

26 Jul 2016
Date

21 Dec 2015
03 Jun 2014
18 Sep 2014

402

104
(Rs)
329
388
277
191
(Rs)

Close price
Close price
89
112
105
(Rs)
Close price

(Rs)
(Rs)

520

120
Target price
410
494
419
240
Target price
(Rs)

120
204
138
Target price

BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY

ADD
BUY
BUY
BUY

Rating
Rating
Rating

13
India - Cement
Institutional Equities India - Cement

ShreeCement:3yearpriceandratinghistory Date Close price Target price Rating


(Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
Price TP/Recochangeddate
20,000 24 Feb 2014 4530 4850 BUY
03 Jun 2014 6810 7500 BUY
15,000 21 Dec 2015 10975 11400 BUY

10,000
5,000
0
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
Sep13

Feb14

Sep14

Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Jun14

Jun15

Jun16
Dec13

Mar14

Jul14

Dec14

Mar15

Jul15

Dec15

Mar16

Jul16
Aug13
Oct13

Aug14
Oct14

Aug15
Oct15

Aug16
Nov13
Jan14

Nov14
Jan15

Nov15
Jan16
May14

May15

May16
TheRamcoCements:3yearpriceandratinghistory
(Rs) Price TP/Recochangeddate Date Close price Target price Rating
700 (Rs) (Rs)
600 31 Mar 2014 214 235 ADD
500 03 Jun 2014 269 333 BUY
400 26 Feb 2015 334 360 BUY
300 09 Nov 2015 373 428 BUY
200 21 Dec 2015 364 425 BUY
100 27 Jun 2016 543 618 BUY
0
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
Sep13

Feb14

Sep14

Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Jun14
Jul14

Jun15
Jul15

Jun16
Jul16
Dec13

Mar14

Dec14

Mar15

Dec15

Mar16
Aug13
Oct13

Aug14
Oct14

Aug15
Oct15

Aug16
Nov13
Jan14

Nov14
Jan15

Nov15
Jan16
May14

May15

May16

UltraTechCement:3yearpriceandratinghistory
(Rs) Price TP/Recochangeddate Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs)
5,000
12 Sep 2013 1735 2048 BUY
4,000
21 Jan 2014 1719 1850 BUY
3,000 25 Apr 2014 2170 2300 BUY
2,000 03 Jun 2014 2451 2658 BUY
11 Sep 2014 2695 2967 BUY
1,000 27 Jan 2015 3148 3400 BUY
0 20 Oct 2015 2899 3200 BUY
26 Apr 2016 3276 3400 BUY
Apr14

Apr15

Apr16
Sep13

Feb14

Sep14

Feb15

Sep15

Feb16
Dec13

Mar14

Jun14
Jul14

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15
Jul15

Dec15

Mar16

Jun16
Jul16
Aug13
Oct13

Aug14
Oct14

Aug15
Oct15

Aug16
Nov13
Jan14

Nov14
Jan15

Nov15
Jan16
May14

May15

May16

20 Jul 2016 3508 3600 BUY

14

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