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Speed(V)
Distance per unit time.
Model: U=AB*K
Alternatively,
K K
U U *ln( ) j 0
KK
c
0
When density approaches zero, it yields finite free flow speed of
Uf=Uc* ln(1 + kj/ko)
n* L
Space mean speed (Vs ) was calculated. Vs
t
n
i
i1
6/14/2017 Hemant Tiwari 24
Density Data Extraction
Vehicles occupying the section at each 30th second was noted and
converted to PCU
Models with strong fit ( better R2 value) and realistic value of free-
flow speed and jam density were recommended for validation.
Suitable model based on R2 value, jam density and free flow speed
are refer for validation.
70
Observed data
60 V = 61.97 - 2.01 * K
Greenshield curve
R2 = 0.797
50
Speed (kmph)
40
30
20
10
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
Density (PCU/200m)
80
70
V = 14.925 ln (171.14/K)
60 Greenberg curve
R2 = 0.845
50 Observed data
Speed (Kmph)
40
30
20
10
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Density (PCU/200km)
6/14/2017 Hemant Tiwari 30
Underwood model:
70
60 Observed data
50 Underwood curve
40 V = 66.365 e-K/21.516
Speed (kmph)
R2 = 0.815
30
20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Density (PCU/200m)
6/14/2017 Hemant Tiwari 31
Underwood Model With Taylor Series Expansion:
70
Underwood with Taylor Expansion
60
Observed points
50
Speed (kmph)
40
V = 66.16*(1-K/21.8+K2/948.6-K3/61976.96)
30
R2 value = 0.814
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Density (PCU/200m)
6/14/2017 Hemant Tiwari 32
Conventional Drake Model:
60
Drake Model Curve
50 Observed data
40
Speed (kmph)
30
V = 56.729 Exp (- K2/ 305.737)
R2 = 0.75
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Density (PCU/200m)
6/14/2017 Hemant Tiwari 33
Drake with Taylor Series Expansion:
60
Drake with Taylor expansion Observed data
50
40
Speed (kmph)
30 V = 56.71*(1-K2/306.84+K4/188304.85-K6/173339891.3)
20 R2 Value = 0.75
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Density (PCU/200km)
50 Observed Data
40
Speed (Kmph)
30
V = 55.834*[1-(K/19.29)2]
20
R2 Value = 0.72
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Density (PCU/200m)
70
Speed (kmph)
60
50
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Density (PCU/200m)
V = 56.71*(1-
Drake with Taylor Series
K2/306.84+K4/188304.85 - 56.71 34.26 22.13 12.39 0.75
Expansion
K6/173339891.3)
Polynomial
6/14/2017(Degree two) V = 0.4018*K2 - 7.7448*K +Hemant
81.696Tiwari81.69 _ _ _ 0.88
37
Underwood model:
70
60 Observed data
50 Underwood curve
40 V = 66.365 e-K/21.516
Speed (kmph)
R2 = 0.815
30
20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Density (PCU/200m)
6/14/2017 Hemant Tiwari 38
Validation Process:
Validation of Recommended Calibrated Model:
Model Calibrated Equation R2 Value Standard Error
70
Recommended Model fit Observed data
60
50
V = 66.22 * Exp(-K/21.75)
Speed (Kmph)
40
R2 Value = 0.83
30 Standard Error = 1.364
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Density (PCU/200m/7mwidth
6/14/2017 Hemant Tiwari 40
Future Scope: