Friday, July 30, 2010

Jonathan and the politics of (s)election

By Dr. Reuben Abati

The politics of zoning which has now become a vehicle of intrigue for the
professional political class may end up as one of such scandals that could
further widen the existing divisions within the country. President Goodluck
Jonathan has a personal responsibility to ensure that he does not become a
pawn or the architect of an unfolding subterfuge which could in the long run
damage his administration’s interests. There are three clear issues involved
in the arguments and counter-arguments about zoning as currently
constructed. To the small circle of Jonathan’s political strategists
(consultants?), it is un-Nigerian, and unadvisable for Jonathan to be
President for a year, to organize a Presidential election only to hand over
power and office to another person when he, Jonathan is neither sick nor
uninterested. So, although Jonathan himself has not issued any categorical
statement, his promoters are busy making a case for his presidency. In the
process, they have cast the word “opportunism” in a new light, they have
given desperation a new name, and the main victim even if they do not
realise it now, is president Goodluck Jonathan himself who has unwittingly
allowed the golden opportunity of his Presidency to be reduced to endless
talks about 2011 and his personal ambition.

All those lofty promises he made when he assumed office have now become
less important; his presidency is no longer focusing on electoral reform and
integrity, not on the Niger Delta crisis, not on how to rescue the economy or

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the power sector, but more on how Jonathan can remain in power. The only
obstacle that could stand in Jonathan’s path is the reported zoning formula in
the Constitution of the Peoples Democratic Party in section 7(2) (c ) thereof
which talks specifically about rotation and zoning of party and public elective
offices…at all levels. It is this clause that the Jonathan consultants, driven by
their own selfish interests and expediency want to circumvent in response to
the insistence by certain sections of the North that the North to which the
presidency was zoned in 2007 is yet to complete its two terms in office due
to President Yar’Adua’s sudden death. They offer no compelling reason other
than the fact of Jonathan’s incumbency (one year is not enough for him to
make a difference!) and his ethnicity (the South South should be allowed to
have it.) Unwittingly, those who claim to be opposing zoning are actually
making a case for it only as long as it stands to the benefit of their kinsman
or sponsors. But who says each zone must have two terms in the Presidential
office compulsorily?

In an earlier piece on this subject, titled “Rotational Presidency and the “core
North?”, (The Guardian, April 18 ) I had decried the use of the rotation
principle to compromise merit or ability, and the tendency to assume that
elected public officials necessarily carry the banner for group interests. This
latter point is now fully on display and it presents 2011 as a big threat to
Nigerian unity. In the last month alone, Governors of the South South have
met to endorse Goodluck Jonathan as the only candidate for Presidency in
2011. The South East Governors were even more brazen: they resolved that
nobody in their region must seek to become president or vice president in
2011. In the North, the Governors are divided, while some of the youth and
other political stakeholders (Katsina Stakeholders Forum, Arewa Consultative
Forum) are up in arms threatening that if the North is not allowed to
continue from where late President Yar’Adua left off, there will be great
trouble ahead. Some elements have served notice that they will be most
willing to foment that trouble. Meanwhile, some Niger Delta militants have
also threatened that the next President must be Jonathan or no one else.

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Thus, the ground seems to have been prepared for violence either before or
after the 2011 elections. It is instructive that the group interests that have so
far been expressed have all been about Jonathan’s ambition.

The intriguers are already conducting the next Presidential election, without
PDP party primaries, and completely in spite of the opposition and the
Nigerian voter. They want to select a President for us and they are
threatening that we have no choice in the matter. The real scandal is how
the unfolding electoral process has been reduced to how best to achieve their
target. The decision of the National Assembly to change the order of
elections (this was not an existing problem as such), placing National
Assembly and Presidential elections first is deliberately calculated to achieve
the Jonathan for president goal. Once Jonathan and the PDP win the
Presidential and the National Assembly elections, the calculation is that the
hands of the electorate will be tied, as very few communities would like to be
shut out of power at the centre by voting for another political party. And to
be sure that the Governors do not disappoint Jonathan, the PDP chair,
Okwesilieze Nwodo is already flying the kite that the PDP Constitution will be
amended to stop political appointees from being automatic delegates. It is a
shame that President Jonathan will allow himself to be used in this manner.
While pretending for the most part to be aloof, he ruined his own case this
week, when he disclosed in Uganda that he intends to run an election that
will not produce any litigation.

It is not his duty to run elections; that is the responsibility of INEC, and he is
definitely not in a position to predict a priori that there will be no litigations
because “there should be no reason for people to go to court”. Of course,
there will be reasons for litigation, beginning with the current attempt to
manipulate the legal framework for the elections. President Jonathan in
seeking to become President in 2011 must present his candidacy on the
platform of actual performance; he must go through due process within and
outside the PDP; and he must do everything to subject himself to the rules.

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The most important feature of a democratic election is the right and power of
the people to choose. He must defend that, because the emergent chaos
ridicules the electoral process.

It is being argued in some quarters that all of this is a PDP affair, and that in
no way does the argument about zoning preclude other political parties from
fielding candidates of their choice. In principle, may be. But the practical
reality is that the campaign for a Jonathan candidature is being conducted in
such a way as to discourage any other persons from stepping forward as a
Presidential candidate. The Nigerian Presidency is ultra-powerful and too
many likely strong aspirants have so much that they cannot afford to risk; to
challenge an incumbent President or Governor is to risk all forms of
victimization including being kidnapped before the elections! The various
Governors who are either choosing or rejecting Jonathan for 2011 are not
doing so only as members of the PDP; they pretend to be speaking for the
Nigerian people. Such arrogance which discounts the electorate can only take
the country backwards.

The PDP must respect the rules of internal democracy in choosing its
Presidential candidate, and it will be wrong to present its choice as a
national decision that is binding on all and sundry. If Jonathan must be
President, this must be determined in a free and fair manner, even within the
party. Donald Duke in a famous statement that is now being reproduced
widely has exposed the role that Governors play in the rigging of elections. It
is these same Governors who are now insisting that Jonathan must be
President in 2011. Only about eight Governors opposed the plan in the north.
Attahiru Jega, the INEC Chairman has warned Resident Electoral
Commissioners to stay away from the Governors, but how does he hope to
enforce that directive? In better organized countries, Duke’s expose would
have raised the level of debate and awareness, rather it has ended up as a
matter for side-talk and needless jokes: a general indictment of all of us.

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The urgent task before civil society is to resist every attempt by the PDP and
other politicians to rig the 2011 elections before they actually take place.
Already, a credible voters’ register is non-existent and to produce one in a
hurry, the country has to provide N72 billion by August 11, an amount that
has now suddenly gone up to N74 billion within a week. Is the computer
error alluded to by Professor Jega due to changes in the exchange rate? It is
like old times all over again; nothing has changed, except the personnel
involved (even that is debatable).

For comments, send an e-mail to the author at abati1990@yahoo.com

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