Documenti di Didattica
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GEOFF OBRIEN
NICOLA PEARSALL
THE FUTURE OF
ENERGY
USE
SECOND EDITION
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY USE
THE FUTURE OF
ENERGY USE
Phil OKeefe, Geoff OBrien and Nicola Pearsall
London Washington, DC
First published in 2010 by Earthscan
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Earthscan publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
OKeefe, Philip.
The future of energy use / Phil OKeefe, Geoff OBrien, and Nicola Pearsall. 2nd ed.
p. cm.
Rev. ed. of: The future of energy use / Robert Hill, Phil OKeefe, and Colin Snape, 1995.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-84407-504-1 (hardback) ISBN 978-1-84407-505-8 (pbk.) 1. Power resources. 2.
Energy policy. I. OBrien, Geoff. II. Pearsall, Nicola. III. Hill, R. (Robert), 1937- Future of energy use.
IV. Title.
TJ163.2.H53 2010
333.79dc22
2009020025
At Earthscan we strive to minimize our environmental impacts and carbon footprint through reducing
waste, recycling and offsetting our CO2 emissions, including those created through publication of this
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Index 271
List of Figures, Tables and Boxes
Figures
1.1 Energy per capita as a function of cumulative population 2
1.2 Proven oil reserves by area 4
1.3 Oil production by region 4
1.4 Oil consumption by region 5
1.5 Natural gas reserves by area 5
1.6 Natural gas production by region 6
1.7 Natural gas consumption by region 6
1.8 Proven coal reserves by area 7
1.9 Nuclear power by area 7
1.10 Hydroelectric power by area 8
1.11 World energy consumption by type 8
1.12 Energy consumption by fuel type (quadrillion Btus) 9
1.13 Global share of energy production by source type 9
1.14 Damaged high voltage towers in Quebec 12
1.15 ShannonWiener index for generation types 12
1.16 Age structure of installed capacity in the EU 14
1.17 Gas pipelines 14
1.18 World CO2 emissions 19
2.1 The contribution of renewable energy (electricity, transport and heat) 19902004 (mtoe)
in EU Countries 38
2.2 An integrated approach to policy formation 39
2.3 Renewables growth: Electricity projections to 2020 40
2.4 Renewables growth: Heating and cooling projections to 2020 40
2.5 Avoided CO2 emissions due to new RES deployment up to 2020 in the EU 40
2.6 Projected evolution of the worlds primary energy demand by fuel according to the
International Energy Agency, 2006 using a reference scenario 42
2.7 Renewable consumption in EU countries, 2004 45
2.8 Interrelations between sustainability dimensions of the energy sector 49
3.1 Conventional energy ladder approaches 59
3.2 Alternative energy ladder approaches 60
4.1 The energy system 72
4.2 The heat engine 73
4.3 Final energy consumption by sector 74
4.4 Passive House concept 78
4.5 Comparison of energy ratings of homes 78
4.6 Yearly primary space heating energy uses per dwelling, per existing, typical new and
passive house 81
viii The Future of Energy Use
Tables
1.1 Total greenhouse gas emissions, percentage change from 1990 to 2004 (relative to 1990),
Annex I countries 16
1.2 Per capita emissions 18
1.3 Possible policies, measures and instruments for environmental protection 21
1.4 Key mitigation technologies and practices by sector 24
2.1 Generation technology options and congurations 32
2.2 External costs for electricity production in the EU for existing technologies 36
3.1 Features of sustainable energy systems 61
4.1 Typical U-value of construction 76
4.2 ZEB supply options 78
4.3 Basic features of Passive House construction 79
4.4 Advantages and disadvantages of ZEBs 80
4.5 Projected market penetration of new build and refurbished dwellings 81
4.6 Considered energy sources for space heating in the study countries 82
4.7 EU Directives targeted at improving end use efciency 87
4.8 Residential product policy studies for the Energy-using Products Directive 88
4.9 Typical efcacies of different light types 88
4.10 Estimation of the total energy consumption for various information and
telecommunication technologies in European households 89
4.11 Fuel cell types and applications 97
4.12 Statistical overview of EU transport (data for 2006, unless otherwise indicated) 100
5.1 Agricultural practices for enhancing productivity and increasing the amount of carbon
in soils 128
5.2 Prole by process or industrial activity of worldwide large stationary CO2 sources with
emissions of more than 0.1 million tonnes of CO2 per year (MtCO2 yr1) 130
6.1 Nuclear power plants in commercial operation 148
6.2 Advanced thermal reactors being marketed 152
6.3 Overview of generation IV systems 152
6.4 Some comparative radiation doses and their effects 155
6.5 Nuclear energy annual capacity (MWe), 2005 158
6.6 OECD electricity generating cost projections for year 2010 at a 5 per cent discount rate 160
6.7 The IAEAs proposed waste classication scheme 163
6.8 Decommissioning strategies 164
6.9 Known recoverable resources of uranium (tonnes U, % of world) 167
7.1 Selected statistics of the sun 175
7.2 Average daily irradiation values for various cities around the world for a horizontal surface,
in kWh/m2 177
7.3 Thermal conductivities of some common building materials 192
7.4 Characteristics of different congurations for CSP systems 197
7.5 Consumption of wood fuels in 2005 217
7.6 World production of ethanol 219
7.7 Production of biodiesel 219
8.1 Hydrogen production methods 232
8.2 Hydrogen storage technologies 234
8.3 Carbon markets:Volumes and values 20062007 238
List of Figures,Tables and Boxes xi
Boxes
1.1 Timing is everything 11
2.1 Externalities 34
2.2 Willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept 36
2.3 Is the nuclear route a viable green alternative? 43
2.4 Challenge of global biomass 44
2.5 Russias energy markets 47
3.1 Women and energy 65
4.1 The laws of thermodynamics 73
4.2 Denition of SAP rating 76
4.3 Internet resources 82
4.4 Key energy efciency policies and measure 83
4.5 Inuence of push and pull factors 87
4.6 EU research and development programmes 90
5.1 Abiotic oil 116
5.2 Underlying assumptions in the EIA/DOE energy model 119
5.3 Heat engines 125
5.4 Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) 129
5.5 Vattenfall oxyfuel pilot project 131
6.1 Energy output of 1kg of U-235 143
6.2 Goals for Generation IV nuclear energy systems 152
6.3 Measurement units for radiation 154
8.1 JI and CDM of the Kyoto Protocol 238
Acknowledgements
First, we would like to acknowledge the former co-authors of the rst edition of The Future of Energy
Use, namely the late Professor Robert Hill and the now retired Dr Colin Snape. At Northumbria, they
helped build a tradition of studying science and society that has resonated through this institution, from
undergraduate to postdoctoral level, for many generations. Secondly, we would like to thank the generous
reviewers of the rst edition whose encouragement pushed us collectively to embark on a second edition.
This brings us to an important third acknowledgement that requires just a little explanation.
We had initially thought that, as nothing signicant had happened in terms of new technologies or
even the deployment of existing technologies, it would be a simple matter of updating gures and dia-
grams with additional commentary on improved efciency. How wrong we were. The policy debate on
energy has entirely changed in the last 20 years and, despite the fact that there remain few new commit-
ments on the ground to new energy practice, the framework is entirely new. It is driven by a commitment
to stop despoiling the global commons through continued accelerating increases in anthropogenic green-
house gases which, in turn, suggest the twin pillars of energy policy are efciency and renewables. This,
however, poses problems since the energy system, especially the electricity and transport sectors, with their
respective emphasis on existing fuel-technology combinations of coal or nuclear with large transmission
and oil product with road network, have so much embedded capital that it is difcult to move towards a
sustainable future. As we have struggled with this conundrum, Earthscan have provided substantial support
despite considerable delay on our part in delivery. A heroine of this book is Claire Lamont, supported by
Jonathan Sinclair Wilson.
Our fourth acknowledgement is to Zaina Gadema who not only helped with the editing but pro-
vided research assistance and input to this book. How she did this, while juggling graduate school, other
jobs and raising a family, is beyond what we could ask of ordinary folk. A large debt of gratitude is owed.
Fifthly, there were others who, at various times, provided research input including Leanne Wilson and
Joanne Rose, from a base in ETC UK.
Finally, we acknowledge the generous generation of students who have pushed us in argument, who
showed us that it was necessary to say that all politicians, of whatever political view, and all policy makers,
of whatever institutional bent, have essentially ducked the issue of an energy secure future in an environ-
mentally secure space. As we continue our work, and our necessary lobbying, the nal acknowledgement
is the largest of all.
Phil OKeefe, Nicola Pearsall and Geoff OBrien
Northumbria University, April 2009
Foreword
Energy futures
The energy future of the global commons faces two direct physical challenges that can ironically only be
met by generating political will.The rst challenge is to address accelerating climate change and increased
climatic variability, a situation created by anthropogenic expansion of greenhouse emissions. In addressing
this challenge it must be emphasized that there are subsets of problems namely:
How do we gauge and miss the environmental tipping points by ensuring that the carbon equivalents
are kept below 350 parts per million (ppm)?
What are the type and scale of technologies that will allow us to deliver a 350ppm goal recognizing
that all technologies change relationships to the environment and simultaneously change peoples
relationships to other people?
How can we deliver this sustainable energy world within and between generations of people, without
starting from a policy position that recognizes energy and by implication carbon inequalities within
and between nation states?
The second challenge is to build the hydrogen non fossil and non nuclear fuel future while recogniz-
ing that current technical congurations of the transport and electrical systems work against this. The
dominance of hydrocarbons, particularly oil-based products for private transport and the dominance of
hydrocarbons and nuclear power in the large scale generation and transmission system distort current sys-
tems. Neither system can be said to reect market prices since both systems are heavily reliant on direct
and indirect subsidies together with an inherent tendency to expand gigantism because of embedded
capital such as roads and transmission systems. Obtaining end use fueltechnology combinations that are
efcient must be the driving goal as we move to the hydrogen economy.That will again require a willing-
ness to address energy poverty in both developed and developing worlds, together with a willingness to
develop local scale supply solutions owned by the community.
As we end this book it is worth reecting on the 30 years of work each of us has done around energy
and environment research. While we would never claim that there has been little research ongoing over
the last 30 years, the impact on energy futures remains marginal. Phil OKeefe nds that, despite bet-
ter computer modelling, there is little commitment to international and national energy planning and,
instead with nancial liberalization of commercial energy, the last 30 years has lived on the mantra of
market delivery. Furthermore, with reference to biomass supply solutions and appropriate technology for
local consumption, he sees a decline in commitment to delivery with efforts devolving, lacking support
to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and community groups. Geoff OBrien, after 15 years work
in the oil industry where he developed a portfolio of environmental interventions, is concerned about
the continuing inability to make energy efciency a core function of energy futures, coupled with the
governance issue that sees private and public institutions act as oligopolies against local energy solutions.
Nicola Pearsall continues to be concerned as both a theoretical and bench scientist that while renewables,
xvi The Future of Energy Use
particularly her own specialism of photovoltaic generation have continued to progress, the absence of
substantive research and development monies compared with conventional generation, and the lack of
drive to large-scale commercialization, have signicantly reduced the impact of renewables.
Little progress in 30 years. Who is to blame? Well, in one sense all of us who did not keep energy on
the agenda. But in the key sense, it is politicians and policy makers of whatever political hue who refused
to think through the numbers and safeguard present and future generations. In a situation of globaliza-
tion (One world many places; many worlds one place) the new energy economy must be generated,
governed by the core principles of democratic participation and a constrained pluralism. This implies
that the underlying choices of energy futures lies not simply in a discussion of rival technical claims but
to human rights, bioethics, security and justice, responsible nance and a commitment to global relevant
sustainable science. Any takers?
Geoff OBrien
Phil OKeefe
Nicola Pearsall
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
1 200 Qatar
U. A. E.
600
500
Singapore
Canada
GJ/capita
400 Iceland
Kuwait
Norway
U. S. A.
300
Sweden
200 Japan
Russia
France
100
Turkey China
Poland
Egypt India
Argentina
0
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
Cummulative
Cumulative population
population (millions)
(millions)
Note: Area between dashed line and data points is 500EJ/year and represents everyone below Poland today achieving this same energy usage of 100EJ per capita.
without investing in measures to address the on global climate agreements as these will have a
carbon problem then the climate consequences profound effect on the future of energy use.
could be severe (IEA, 2008).
Renewable technologies are the obvious
answer to the carbon problem but they only
provide a fraction of the worlds energy capacity.
Energy and gross domestic
Some 80 per cent of global energy is produced product
from fossil fuels, while some 13 per cent is pro-
duced by traditional biomass, with the rest being There has always been a close link between
produced by a mixture of nuclear, hydropower social development and energy use. In brief, this
and other renewable technologies. has meant that as economies have grown there
In summary, the major inuences on the has been a corresponding growth in energy
future of energy use will be mitigating climate demand. This close coupling between economic
change using low-carbon and renewable energy growth and energy demand has been a feature
sources, improving energy security and ensuring of societies up until recently, where, for instance,
a smooth transition into new forms of energy focused efforts in Japan to decouple energy use
technology use. Each on its own will be difcult and economic growth have become increasingly
and, collectively, represent a major challenge to prominent. Energy intensity is something which
the global community. In this book we explore governments are looking at quite seriously as one
the issues around these topics as well as look at of the tools to be used in reducing greenhouse
the current trends in the energy system and some gas emissions. However, the picture is not quite
of the proposals that have been made to deal as simple as that. Energy demand is heavily inu-
with the carbon problem. We also touch briey enced by prevailing climate conditions, lifestyles
The Changing Energy Landscape 3
and income, as can be seen in Figure 1.1. Two sufcient for the next few hundred years. The
striking observations about the graph are the issue is not lack of reserves but whether or not
high consumption in oil-rich countries and the ways can be found to use these supplies in ways
relatively low consumption in India and China, that do not jeopardize future generations.
the most rapidly industrializing countries.
Many of those countries above 100EJ per
capita are what are commonly termed as devel-
oped world countries.Typically it is this collective
Global energy resources
of countries that are members of the Organisa-
There is considerable debate about global energy
tion for Economic Co-operation and Develop-
resources and their longevity. Coupled with this
ment (OECD); 30 in total, which make up the
debate is the ongoing and increasing apprehen-
developed world. It is important to note, however,
sion that if we do not nd clean ways of using
that other countries, such as Russia and Kuwait,
fossil fuels or renewable technologies, severe
for example, though not members of the OECD,
impacts upon the climate system will become
still have high energy use per capita, mainly due
more frequent and increasingly difcult to over-
to prevailing climatic conditions. Kuwait, for
come. For many OECD nations, the paramount
instance, has a typically constant hot, dry climate,
concern lies with security of supply as many
whilst Russia on average has a particularly cold
of the existing or proven reserves are in areas
climate.
regarded as geopolitically unstable, which could
In the near future other factors will signi-
in turn jeopardize supplies. Figures 1.2, 1.3 and
cantly shape the demand for energy.These include
1.4 show proven oil reserves, consumption and
a growing world population (estimated to rise by
production for 2007 (BP, 2008). The Middle
at least another one billion by 2025 and perhaps,
East is currently the most geopolitically unstable
eventually stabilizing at 9 billion people), and the
region of the world, in part because of wars gen-
rapidly rising percentage of the worlds population
erated by developed countries.
moving from rural to urban areas. Many rural to
From these gures it is relatively straightfor-
urban migrants, particularly in Asia, quickly emu-
ward to calculate the expected longevity of cur-
late Western lifestyles as incomes increase (greater
rent reserves at the daily consumption rate for
per capita income), in turn, expanding the number
2007. This gives a value of:
of those joining the middle classes. This scenario
is almost certainly true when considering the (1208.2 thousand million barrels/83,719
future despite recent global economic decline. thousand barrels per day)/365 = 38 years.
Together, these demographic changes are likely to
increase demand for scarce energy resources. This This gure will change if, as expected, demand
will run parallel to emerging constraints on new for oil increases, particularly in the industrializing
production partially through the control exercised countries of India and China. However, there are
by state-run companies and partially by climate still considerable reserves of non-conventional oil
concerns. This implies that the future of energy is such as tar-sand, shale and heavy oils that could
unlikely to be determined by market forces. Cli- be exploited to meet demand.These are discussed
mate concerns, energy security and technological in more detail in Chapter 5.
developments are the most likely determinants of The case for natural gas is even more promis-
the future of energy. ing in terms of resource longevity. Figures 1.5,
Studies focusing on the likely mix of energy 1.6 and 1.7 show proven gas reserves, consump-
resources suggest that for some years to come the tion and production for 2007 (BP, 2008).
supply side will be dominated by fossil fuels. The The longevity of proven natural gas supplies
IEA (2008) predict that there are sufcient oil can be calculated from the reserves and consump-
and gas reserves to meet current and projected tion gures (expressed in cubic metres) as:
demand for the next 40 years. Coal reserves are
4 The Future of Energy Use
143.7
111.2 117.5
69.3
40.8
Asia Pacic North S. & Cent. Africa Europe & Middle East
America America Eurasia
Production by region
Million barrels daily
Asia Pacic 90
Africa
Middle East 80
Europe & Eurasia
S. & Cent. America
North America 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0
World oil production fell by 130,000b/d in 2007. OPEC production cuts led to a decline of 350,000b/d. OECD
production dropped again, driven by declines in Mexico and Norway of more than 200,000b/d each. Former Soviet
Union production rose by nearly 500,000b/d as both Russian and Azerbaijani output rose by at least 200,000b/d.
(181.6 trillion/2.8 billion per day)/365 = niques. Although other methods of producing gas
175 years. are available, such as the gasication of coal seams.
This is discussed in more detail in Chapter 5.
Again, this value will change as consumption Resources such as coal, (see Figure 1.8) are
rates as expected, increase. In contrast to oil there relatively plentiful, for which the lifetime of cur-
are no other types of gas resource that can be rent reserves is thought to be in excess of 150
exploited through conventional exploration tech- years (BP, 2008).
The Changing Energy Landscape 5
Consumption by region
Million barrels daily
Asia Pacic 90
Africa
Middle East 80
Europe & Eurasia
S. & Cent. America
North America 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0
World oil consumption rose by about 1mmb/d in 2007, just below the 10-year average. OECD consumption
declined nearly 400,000b/d. China accounted for the largest increment to consumption even though the growth rate
was below average. Consumption in oil exporting regions was robust.
59.41
14.46 14.58
7.73 7.98
S. & Cent. North Asia Pacic Africa Europe & Middle East
America America Eurasia
In terms of fossil fuels it can be argued that maps, which clearly show that the distribution
sufcient resources are available to meet cur- of resources does not match consumption loca-
rent demand. If demand continues to accel- tions. This is likely to be increasingly problematic
erate at the current rate, then it is likely that a in terms of energy security.
resource constraint in terms of availability may Other forms of energy supply that produce
become a contentious issue. This is illustrated a signicant amount of power are nuclear and
best by inspecting resource and consumption hydroelectric power, as shown in Figures 1.9
6 The Future of Energy Use
Production by region
Billion cubic metres
Rest of World 3000
Asia Pacic
Europe & Eurasia
North America
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0
World natural gas production grew by 2.4% in 2007, slightly below the 10-year average. North American production
was very strong, especially in the US (+4.3%, the strongest since 1984). All other regions except Asia saw below-
average growth. EU output declined by 6.4%.
Consumption by region
Billion cubic metres
2000
1500
1000
500
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0
World natural gas consumption rose by 3.1% in 2007, slightly above the 10-year average. The US accounted for the
largest increment to growth, rising by 6.5%. In addition to North America, only Africa and Asia Pacic recorded above-
average regional growth. Chinese consumption rose by 19.9%, while EU consumption fell by 1.6%.
and 1.10 (BP, 2008). Figure 1.11 (again from and will depend upon a range of factors. Deter-
BP (2008)) shows world energy consumption mining future energy demand is difcult and in
by fuel type. What is clear from all the gures many ways is more of an art than a science. Ways
shown is that demand for energy has increased in which energy futures, using examples from
over given reporting periods. It is apparent that developing countries, are predicted are discussed
demand for energy is predicted to increase. The in more detail in Chapter 3.
speed at which demand will grow is uncertain
The Changing Energy Landscape 7
49.6 (49.4)
16.3 (7.2)
1.4 (1.4)
Middle East S. & Cent. Africa North Asia Pacic Europe &
America America Eurasia
Consumption by region
Million tonnes oil equivalent
Rest of World 700
Asia Pacic
Europe & Eurasia
North America 600
500
400
300
200
100
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0
Global nuclear power generation experienced the largest decline on record, falling by 2%. More than 90% of the net
decline was concentrated in Germany and Japan.
Consumption by region
Million tonnes oil equivalent
Asia Pacic 800
Middle East & Africa
Europe & Eurasia
S. & Cent. America 700
North America
600
500
400
300
200
100
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0
Growth in global hydroelectric power generation was 1.7%, slightly below the historical average. New capacity in China
and Brazil and improved rainfall in Canada and northern Europe offset drought conditions in the US and southern
Europe.
World consumption
Million tonnes oil equivalent
Coal 12000
Hydroelectricity
11000
Nuclear energy
Natural gas 10000
Oil
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0
World primary energy consumption slowed in 2007, but growth of 2.4% was still above the 10-year average. Coal
remained the fastest-growing fuel, but oil consumption grew slowly. Oil is still the worlds leading fuel, but has lost
global market share for six consecutive years, while coal has gained market share for six years.
Note: For further information relating to energy resources, denitions, and conversion factors see appendices.
instance, one major inaction can be said to be the rative. Figure 1.12 shows the prediction by the
relatively weak international effort to meaning- Energy Information Agency (EIA (US), part of
fully address or reverse climate change. In addition, the US Department of Energy) for use by fuel
in order to appeal to a wider audience, especially types up to 2030.
market forces, projections are commonly pack- Of note in this prediction is the relatively
aged in a Business-as-Usual or Baseline case nar- high growth in the use of coal as a primary form
The Changing Energy Landscape 9
Biofuels 0.3%
Nuclear Power generation 0.8%
3% Hot water/heating 1.3%
Large hydropower 3%
Source: EIA (US)/DOE, 2008 Figure 1.13 Global share of energy production by
source type
Figure 1.12 Energy consumption by fuel type
(quadrillion Btus)
of energy supply. Figure 1.8 shows that the Asia biomass but including nuclear, account for less
Pacic area has the highest levels of coal reserves that 8 per cent of the global energy resource.
and industrializing nations such as China and Slow progress on the development and
India are likely to use indigenous resources to implementation of renewable capacity and the
drive economic growth. Other principal growth uneven distribution of energy supplies threatens
areas are likely to lie within the realms of liq- the stability of the global atmospheric commons
uid fuels (oil and related products and liqueed and the economic stability of those countries
natural gas) and renewables (excluding hydro- that rely heavily on imported supplies. The need
electricity where most of the major opportu- for energy policy makers to develop and imple-
nities for large hydroelectric power generation ment approaches that both reconcile increasing
have been exploited). It is likely that reliance on demand for energy and growing climate concerns
nuclear power will not change signicantly. This represents an extremely challenging backdrop for
is despite renewed interest in many countries in the future of energy. The essential elements of
developing nuclear capacity. However, much of energy policy in this vein will need to be shaped
this will replace existing nuclear stock, which is to address the necessity of attaining the interna-
approaching the end of its service life. It seems tional goals of sustainable development, climate
quite probable that growth of conventional fuels change and the MDGs (Millennium Develop-
may outstrip the growth of renewable capacity. In ment Goals). This is a challenge on a number of
reality modern renewable capacity such as photo- fronts: technological, social, political and eco-
voltaics (PVs) and wind power account for only nomic. In the developed world the emphasis is
a small fraction of overall energy use, as shown in on technical solutions. While there is logic to
Figure 1.13. this approach in that the developed world is both
Although renewables account for 18 per cent technology dependent and innovative, one of
of global energy supplies, the bulk of this consists the problems with energy is the timescales and
of traditional biomass. This type of fuel is made cost involved. Of the US$26 trillion of invest-
up from sources such as wood-fuel, charcoal, ani- ment needed by 2030, half of that is required to
mal dung and crop residues that are typically used replace existing infrastructure (IEA, 2008). With
in poorer countries. A signicant number of peo- the credit crunch and the nancial problems of
ple depend on these sources to provide energy 2008 facing the banking sector, it is uncertain
for cooking, heating and lighting. Chapter 3 dis- whether sufcient levels of funding will be avail-
cusses traditional biomass fuels in greater detail. able for refurbishment and for the development
In total, low carbon sources, excluding traditional of new and more efcient technologies. There
10 The Future of Energy Use
frequent and severe weather events that as a direct highlighted with great clarity the vulnerability of
causal effect will undoubtedly have a detrimental physical infrastructure. For example, emergency
impact on energy infrastructures. action was urgently required in order to prevent
The 1998 ice storms in Quebec damaged an electrical sub-station from being ooded that
350 power lines and some 16,000 structures col- would have left 500,000 people without power.
lapsed (Figure 1.14). Due to an unforeseen and The vulnerability of an energy system to
expectedly deadly heat wave in Europe in 2003, the physical disruption to imported supplies
a number of nuclear reactors in France were shut is strongly linked to its dependence on those
down due to a lack of cooling water as river ows imported supplies. Each energy source to some
dropped (United Nations Environment Pro- extent supplies a captive market (for example, oil
gramme (UNEP), 2004). The UK oods of 2007 in the transport sector) and uses different logistic
12 The Future of Energy Use
2.5
0.5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of independent types of generation
This has steadily declined in Europe with the ally economic pressures to maximize grid-use
decrease in traditional industries such as steel can add additional stress to grid infrastruc-
making and the increase in value-added and ture. Although these factors are important at
knowledge-based industries. the macro-economic level, there is a need to
Net energy import bill a rise in energy costs consider mechanisms for stabilizing prices in
has a detrimental economic impact. This has order to protect certain areas of the industrial
been a real problem in 2008 when oil and sector from extreme price uctuations.
gas prices uctuated widely. Price volatility
can severely affect revenue as more is gen- At the technological level:
erally spent on energy leading to ination
and interest rate increases (although this has Development of an integrated and well-func-
been offset by the global nancial slowdown tioning electricity market in Europe (an aim of
in 2008), and greater reliance on trade as the EU policy) will necessitate sufcient genera-
need for energy imports rise. tion to meet demand, an adequate infrastruc-
Carbon content of total primary energy sup- ture to deliver the power and robust technical
plies (TPES) increasing expenditure on and administrative operational procedures.
imported fossil fuels could impact the devel- The EU Commission has set out plans for
opment of renewable capacity. This could greater connectivity between EU member
hamper progress in meeting the Kyoto targets. states (Communication from the Commis-
Rising concerns about global climate change sion, 2007). When these will be realized is
will make greenhouse gases, and particu- unknown. In the interim, it is predicted that
larly CO2 emissions become more and more between 2006 and 2030 electricity consump-
costly. tion will grow at 1.5 per cent per year. How-
Currency exchange rate a uctuating cur- ever much of the existing generator capacity
rency could exacerbate the energy import is ageing (Figure 1.16). To meet the expected
bill. growth in demand, additional capacity of
265GW installed by 2030 giving an overall
At the micro-economic level: capacity of 843GW will be required.This will
entail considerable investment. Stricter envi-
For the consumer, vulnerability is charac- ronmental rules, political decisions, higher
terized by the risk of supply disruption and costs due to the ETS or falling prots due
associated price increases. A recent example to lower efciencies could mean that invest-
of a physical supply disruption event occurred ment needs may well be double that of add-
during the summer of 2005 in the US caused ing additional capacity with some 520GW of
by hurricanes Rita and Katrina, which not installed capacity required by 2030.
only destroyed oil and gas production rigs in
the Gulf of Mexico, but also damaged several At the social level:
reneries. The European Union (EU) has a
strategic oil reserve of 90 days but there is no Fuel poverty, generally dened as being when
similar facility for natural gas. more than 10 per cent of household income is
Electricity is more problematic as there is no spent on fuel, is an issue that can affect many
means of storage. Electrical systems are vul- households. The Fuel Poverty Concept is an
nerable to massive interruptions as outlined interaction between poorly insulated housing
previously and, because of the way in which and inefcient in-house energy systems, low-
systems have developed and the costs of long income households and high-energy serv-
distance transmission, less than 10 per cent of ice prices. Although there are a number of
electricity is traded across borders compared schemes designed to help those in fuel pov-
with some 60 per cent of natural gas.Addition- erty, the costs to government and the distress
14 The Future of Energy Use
felt by those dependent on welfare schemes to reduce this level of vulnerability by diversify-
are important factors for public policy. ing its supply base through the construction of
two major gas pipeline projects Nabucco and
At the geopolitical level: South Stream to deliver gas to southern Europe
from central Asia and Russia, respectively (Figure
Disruptions to the supply of primary fuels 1.17).
due to geopolitical events or terrorist attacks The Strategic Energy Review also high-
will exacerbate vulnerability. Globally, some 60 lights the need to strengthen and diversify the
per cent of energy supplies are transported by ship, electricity grid. It calls for a North Sea offshore
vulnerable to both extreme weather events, accidents grid to be developed that would link up national
and increasing piracy. By 2030, some 70 per cent electricity grids in northwestern Europe and
of EU energy supplies will be imported, often from plug in numerous planned offshore wind farms.
places regarded as politically unstable. Of equal con- This, along with the Mediterranean Ring and
cern is disruption from potential terrorist attacks. the Baltic Interconnection Project, would form
Small, highly motivated groups could cause severe the building blocks of a European supergrid.
damage to port facilities and further disruption by
attacking critical chokepoints such as the Straits of
Hormuz and the Suez Canal. Disruptions of this
kind would have a catastrophic impact on energy
markets (Krger, 2006; Homer-Dixon, 2002).
Land-based supply infrastructure is equally
vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
Signicant changes, not least the collapse of Following a series of measures to update ex-
the Soviet Union, the resultant new salient world ibility mechanisms within the Kyoto Protocol,
order and globalization, brought with them a a plan of action and timeline for nalizing the
host of challenges to addressing climate change Protocols specic policy objectives was agreed in
and energy policy issues in terms of applicabil- 1998 (UNFCCC, 2002).
ity and practicability, particularly the difculty of Mitigative measures, primarily technological
embracing the multiple interests of indigenous and neo-liberal market-based emission reduction
peoples, transnational corporations, governments, strategies, therein, capital dependent, predomi-
their agencies and practitioners (Sneddon et al, nantly shaped the formation of Kyoto. Con-
2006). versely, southern states, those most vulnerable
Although developed countries agreed to lead and little equipped to deal with the impacts of
a reduction in greenhouse gases through the climate change were increasingly marginalized.
acceptance of emission reduction targets in 1992 Commodication of GHGs via the global intro-
(including the US), (Ison et al, 2002) and Kyoto duction of caps, national targets and a lucrative
1997, very few countries reduced emissions in environmental trading regime left little in terms of
line with Kyoto targets (Table 1.1). adaptation instruments, deepening NorthSouth
Table 1.1 Total greenhouse gas emissions, percentage change from 1990 to 2004 (relative to 1990),
Annex I countries
Base year data (under the Climate Change Convention) are used here instead of 1990 data (as per COP decision 9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4) for Bulgaria (1998), Hungary (average of
19851987), Poland (1988), Romania (1989) and Slovenia (1986).
LULUCF = Land use, land use change and forestry; EIT = Economies in transition, Tg/million tonnes CO2 equivalent = Emission reductions from voluntary programmes will
generally be expressed in million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent. For the purposes of national greenhouse gas inventories, emissions are expressed as teragrams of CO2
equivalent (Tg CO2 Eq). One teragram is equal to 1012 grams, or one million metric tonnes (EPA, 2005).
Source: Adapted from: UNFCCC, 2006
tensions in the global climate regime (Agarwal et increase GHGs by creating an incentive to indis-
al, 1999 cited by Najam et al, 2003). criminately develop inappropriate new technol-
For example, the introduction of CDMs ogies in developing countries (Ison et al, 2002).
(clean development mechanisms a mechanism On the other hand, CDMs if used effectively
whereby developed countries can offset GHGs are viewed as a potential valuable policy instru-
by mutually agreeing to implement or update ment in which to encourage nancial support to
cleaner technologies in developing countries promote low carbon development in developing
(Ison et al, 2002)) are seen largely as high risk, countries (Stern, 2006).
involving high transaction costs and being dif- In 2001, in a symbolic gesture by COP 6
cult to implement (IETA, 2007) with the added (Sixth Session of the UNFCCC Conference of
complexity that, possibly, CDMs could serve to the Parties, COP 6,The Hague,The Netherlands,
18 The Future of Energy Use
1324 November, 2000, (UNFCCC, 2007)), a of climate change through political governance
range of voluntary funding initiatives to coun- (Dunn, 2002; Najam et al, 2003).Throughout the
terbalance the needs of least developed countries climate negotiation process the least developed
and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) were countries had been generally reactive in their
agreed to promote capacity building, technology environmental negotiations with the North as
transfer and assistance in climate change adapta- needs to address climate change evolved (Najam
tion. These were poorly funded, voluntary, man- et al, 2003).
aged by the controversial global environmental Additionally, critics argued that the Kyoto
facility (GEF) and increasingly attached as envi- target requirement of a 5 per cent reduction in
ronmental pre-conditions to aid development GHGs was inadequate, particularly in light of sci-
programmes, further exacerbating Southern entic opinion as presented by the IPCC II, Sec-
issues (Ison et al, 2002; Najam et al, 2003). ond Assessment Report, which calls for at least
Kyoto was well designed with a exible frame- 5080 per cent reductions in GHGs (Najam et
work but its focus in the negotiating process was al, 2003).
driven by persuading Annex I countries to ratify The main sticking point was that the US,
the protocol through a series of mitigative meas- arguably the worlds largest polluter (Table 1.2)
ures, signalling a departure from the initial calls refused to ratify the protocol (Najam et al, 2003,
for sustainable development integration within Middleton and OKeefe, 2003). President Bush
global climate policy. Southern preferences for (Junior) reinforced US unilateralism with its
a negotiated formula (based on the long-term transparent scepticism of IPCC ndings, insist-
objectives of the UNFCCC) encompassing clear ence that ratication would inevitably lead to a
linkages between climate change and sustain- catastrophic economic downturn and complaints
able development were largely sidelined, further that Kyoto targets were unfairly biased in favour
marginalizing developing countries (Banuri and of developing countries, especially China and
Sagar, 1999, cited by Najam et al, 2003). India, comparing their total GHG emissions on a
Unlike the internationally cohesive and par to the US (by conveniently ignoring per cap-
successful outcomes of the Montreal Protocol, ita rates of emissions) (Middleton and OKeefe,
progress over the next three years of negotia- 2003). See Table 1.2 and Figure 1.18.
tions for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol Disagreement in late 2000 between the
waned. It appeared largely ineffective in achieving US and the EU led to US withdrawal from
any real difference in terms of slowing the rate the negotiating process in March 2001 (Dunn,
Country Metric tonnes (millions) Population (millions) Tonnes of emissions (per person)
Total G7 nations , 9061 688 13.2
US ,5302 273 19.4
Canada ,, 409 31 13.2
Germany ,, 861 82 10.5
UK ,, 557 59 9.4
Japan ,,1168 126 9.3
Italy , 403 58 6.9
France , 362 59 6.1
Rest of the world 13,269 5209 2.6
World total 22,690 5897 3.8
Source: Based on Foster, 2002. Figures from World Bank, 2000/2001, cited by Middleton and OKeefe, 2003
The Changing Energy Landscape 19
Saudi Arabia
19
Australia
18
17
16
15
Canada
14
13
Hgh
income
average 12 Czech Republic
Norway
11 Russian Federation
United Kingdom
Germany
10 Japan
9
South Africa
Ukraine
8 Malaysia
France
Sweden
7 Iran GNP per capita, PPP
Mexico (International $)
Argentina
6 Turkey more than 20 000
Thailand 10 000 to 20 000
Gabon 5 000 to 10 000
5 Egypt 2 000 to 5 000
China less than 2 000
Brazil
4 Uruguay
Indonesia
World India
average Philippines
3 Guatemala
Pakistan
Yemen
2 Togo
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Low 1 Ethiopia
income Mozambique
Uganda
average Mali
0 0
2002; UNFCCC, 2002), only serving to galva- edented events in the US on September 11,
nize Europe, Canada, Japan and other industrial 2001 only served to further resolve the US uni-
nations into resolving points of contention in lateralist agenda (Middleton and OKeefe, 2003;
Bonn, Germany and Marrakech, Morocco dur- Rechkemmer, 2006). September 11 acted as a
ing the same year (Dunn, 2002). catalyst to do so, all the while undermining mul-
The EU, having adopted and harnessed the tilateral and collective global governance, particu-
Precautionary Principle (COM, 2000) within cli- larly in the context of climate change (Middleton
mate change policy, notably steered the push to and OKeefe, 2003).
bring Kyoto into force arguing the case for man- By 2007, a seminal report known as the Stern
datory reductions in GHG emissions. The USs Review of 2006 (herein referred to as the Review)
unfalteringly market driven position had little together with the fourth assessment report of the
changed from that held at debates at the time of IPCC (AR4) in 2007 reignited the climate change
Rio in 1992 (Dunn, 2002). debate. Together, these reports rmly asserted the
The 1992 Rio Earth Summit clearly placed role of economics and policy formation in line
climate change as an undisputed interest of both with energy and climate as essential inexorably
Northern and Southern nations (Najam et al, linked elements and they outlined the urgency of
2002). Slow uptake of UNCED issues within achieving a tougher carbon emission reduction
global political regimes, endless negotiating proc- trajectory to minimize future adverse economic
esses and inadequate implementation of policy and environmental consequences. The summary
acted as progenitors for increased public pres- of the AR4 avoids specic policy recommenda-
sure, which ultimately brought about the World tions but does summarize a range of possibilities
Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD). for the consideration of policy makers. Table 1.3
This was a ten-year review of progress towards outlines the series of these AR4 options.
the global commitment to sustainable develop- Although nuclear power is briey suggested
ment since Rio, 1992, called by the UN Gen- as a possible carbon neutral solution, the AR4
eral Assembly and known as The World Summit recognizes associated problems of potential nega-
on Sustainable Development (WSSD) or Rio + tive external weapons proliferation, safety and
10. It was held in Johannesburg, 2002 (Ison et waste constraints. Arguably more optimistic is
al, 2002), albeit in a climate of political and eco- recognition of the importance of forest-related
nomic instability (Rechkemmer, 2006). mitigation activities:
Table 1.3 Possible policies, measures and instruments for environmental protection
regional air pollution abatement, and appear more regularly across a host of different
employment. media platforms.
Renewable energy generally has Although the climate convention had been
a positive effect in energy security, agreed more than a decade previously, anthropo-
employment and on air quality. Given genic emissions, concurrent with public concern,
costs relative to other supply options, increased more rapidly than ever before. The
renewable electricity, which accounted need to establish a post-Kyoto agreement includ-
for 18% of electricity supply in 2005, ing greater targets for the most signicantly pol-
can have a 3035% share of the total luting countries, such as the US, by and large
electricity supply in 2030 as car- the most recalcitrant state, soon became central
bon prices up to 50 US$/tCO2-eq. to formulating a space within which the worlds
(IPCC, 2007, p13) most powerful industrialized countries could, in
the near future, demonstrate leadership in signi-
Similarly of note in the Review is the lengthy cant GHG reduction. However, tensions between
exploration of economic costs directly associated the US and the rest of the world are but a fraction
with climate change as well as the costs and ben- of the overall picture.
ets of action to reverse or reduce its negative The USs overtly hostile stance towards rap-
impacts. The benets of early and rm action are idly industrializing economies such as China and
strongly advocated as considerably outweighing India in the context of the climate change debate
future costs (as does the later publication of the means that urgent reconciliation of complex fac-
AR4). Through the use of economic models, a tors including access, ownership and capacity to
range of possibilities to tackle the problem of an use natural resources for development are fraught
energy dependent world is given and the danger with difculty and are distinctly dichotomously
of inaction is again highlighted as are the environ- entrenched around the wants of the global North
mental and economic impacts of climate change. and needs of the global South. For instance,
Chiey, an annual investment of 1 per cent of cumulatively, industrialized countries account for
global gross domestic product (GDP) within the almost 80 per cent of the worlds emissions. Yet,
next 1020 years is called for to avoid the worst access to resources such as coal in China, which
effects of climate change. Failure to do so, based are readily, widely and cheaply available, are car-
on its economic models could mean that when bon intensive but essential for rapid economic
taking into account the overall costs and risks development. Do industrialized countries have a
of climate change, inaction could cost at least right to argue against energy produced cheaply,
5 per cent of global GDP each year, from 2006 particularly as these countries have already
onwards. Moreover, according to the Reviews attained a level of economic development via the
worst case scenario, inaction could result in the same or similar means? Evidently, this jars against
estimated risk of global GDP output declining by the paradoxical need to curb emission growth in
up to 20 per cent (Stern, 2006). tandem with rapid industrialization or develop-
The Review received a mixed critical ment in general.
response from the national and international In essence, developing countries generally
community. Some disputed methods, especially and rightly perceive that industrialized North-
of calculation (with particular reference to the ern countries have developed, achieving higher
discount rate used) but many agreed with its standards of living over the past two centuries
main conclusions (Tol and Yohe, 2006; Nordhaus, through considerable land use change, heavy
2007). Undoubtedly, this Review, together with industry, manufacturing and technological devel-
the AR4, succeeded in propelling the econom- opment, reliant on carbon intensive energy use.
ics of climate change into the economic, politi- Indeed, those now pressing for emission reduc-
cal, scientic and public spheres at a time when tion have consumed most of any ecological
climate change issues simultaneously began to space available. These are challenges that will face
The Changing Energy Landscape 23
those seeking harmony between future energy tries address emission growth. Second, delegates,
requirement and use, and the carving out of a having recognized the urgent need for deforesta-
constructive set of achievable future international tion prevention to reduce emissions, reached a
agreements centred on drastic emission reduc- consensus on the need to feature deforestation
tion. Murmurs of hope have been made. as a valid climate change issue. Third, adaptation
Recognition of the adverse role of anthro- rmly moved to centre stage as delegates shifted
pogenic emissions by President Bush (Junior) from the foci of mitigation (often viewed upon
in 2007 signals a denite change in tone from as a techno-centric, capital intensive and a devel-
the US and the election of President Obama oped world possibility) to other ways of address-
will accelerate that change. However, the het- ing emission growth that would both encourage
erogeneity of the climate and energy problem is wider formulation of appropriate and more peo-
immense, requiring an immense cohesive inter- ple centred policies and enable greater uptake of
national response. As advocated by both the Stern such policies for the benet of livelihood and
and IPCC reports, prevention of dangerous cli- food security, especially pertinent to developing
mate change requires a total re-think and dras- countries.
tic reduction in emissions within 1020 years. On the road from Bali to Copenhagen there
Dealing with a post-Kyoto world that increas- was essentially a staging point, the Poznan nego-
ingly threatens a greater number of adverse con- tiations. In one sense Poznan did not produce
sequences (many of which are likely to lead to signicant forward movement. It occurred in and
augmented intensity and variability of extreme around the US 2008 presidential elections, when
weather events), due to our ongoing consump- a signicant democratic victory was celebrated,
tion and reliance on energy, essentially necessi- but at a time when no indication of the real
tates a harmonious, tenable and pragmatic range content of the US position in addressing climate
of solutions. The advent of a new route delineat- change was made. Problems in agreeing emission
ing a path towards emission reduction onwards reductions continue. For instance, though many
from the ending of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012 developing countries have pushed Annex I coun-
began with negotiations in Bali. tries for a mid-term goal emission reduction of
2540 per cent (with reference to 1990 levels)
by 2020, maintaining that this is crucial to any
The Bali Roadmap long-term goal commitment, some industrialized
countries including Japan, Canada and Australia
Post-2012 negotiations opened with the estab- rendered the target unfeasible under current
lishment of the so-called Bali Roadmap that was conditions (Xinhuanet, 2008).
the beginning of a negotiation process to pro- Thus the advent of a new route delineat-
duce a post Kyoto agreement to be ratied in ing a denite path towards policy formation for
Copenhagen in 2009. As such, the specic focus emission reduction onwards from the ending of
of Bali negotiations was to develop a roadmap the Kyoto Protocol in 2012 began with negotia-
that would facilitate negotiation of an interna- tions in Bali, recently with more negotiations in
tional agreement on climate for the period after Poznan and continues in Copenhagen (Decem-
2012, being the rst commitment period in ber 2009). Trading mechanisms are likely to fea-
which the Kyoto Protocol expires. ture throughout such negotiations.
The Bali conference held during December
2007 realized three key outcomes. First, devel-
oping countries that had previously resisted pro- Trading mechanisms
posals to tackle emission growth under a climate
treaty joined the negotiating table, offering miti- There are two difcult trading mechanisms that
gation plans, although these will largely depend have to be resolved: namely the issue of global
upon the extent to which industrialized coun- carbon trading, including the CDMs, and the
24 The Future of Energy Use
Sector Key mitigation technologies and practices Key mitigation technologies and practices
currently commercially available projected to be commercialized
Energy supply Improved supply and distribution efciency; CCS for gas, biomass and coal-red electricity
fuel switching from coal to gas; nuclear power; generating facilities; advanced nuclear power;
renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, advanced renewable energy, including tidal and
wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined wave energy, concentrating solar and solar PV.
heat and power; early applications of Carbon
Capture and Storage (CCS, e.g. storage of
removed CO2 from natural gas).
Transport More fuel efcient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; Second generation biofuels; higher efciency
cleaner diesel vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles
from road transport to rail and public transport with more powerful and reliable batteries.
systems; non-motorized transport (cycling,
walking); land-use and transport planning.
Buildings Efcient lighting and daylighting; more efcient Integrated design of commercial buildings
electrical appliances and heating and cooling including technologies, such as intelligent meters
devices; improved cook stoves, improved that provide feedback and control; solar PV
insulation; passive and active solar design for integrated in buildings.
heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration
uids, recovery and recycle of uorinated gases.
Industry More efcient end use electrical equipment; Advanced energy efciency; CCS for cement,
heat and power recovery; material recycling and ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes
substitution; control of non-CO2 gas emissions; for aluminium manufacture.
and a wide array of process-specic technologies.
Agriculture Improved crop and grazing land management Improvement of crop yields.
to increase soil carbon storage; restoration
of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands;
improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock
and manure management to reduce CH4
emissions; improved nitrogen fertilizer application
techniques to reduce N2O emissions; dedicated
energy crops to replace fossil fuel use; improved
energy efciency.
Forestry/forests Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; Tree species improvement to increase biomass
reduced deforestation; harvested wood product productivity and carbon sequestration. Improved
management; use of forestry products for remote sensing technologies for analysis of
bioenergy to replace fossil fuel use. vegetation/soil carbon sequestration potential
and mapping land use change.
Waste Landll methane recovery; waste incineration Biocovers and biolters to optimize CH4
management with energy recovery; composting of organic oxidation.
waste; controlled waste water treatment;
recycling and waste minimization.
Source: Adapted from IPCC, 2007, p10
The Changing Energy Landscape 25
values of the environment and economic devel- the role of efciency coupled with an emphasis
opment prevail, as international relations in terms on renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and
of global climate change regime remain domi- sequestration. However, most commentators on
nated by northsouth dichotomies of mitigation these scenarios do not realize that all scenarios
versus adaptation (the latter driven by the need to agree on projections to 2030, only diverging
prioritize maintaining livelihoods over economic after that point. In simple terms, there is com-
development). In general, the emphasis from the mon agreement that climate change is already
developed world has been on mitigation strate- with us.
gies, where the diffusion of new technology is As this book is published, a new post-Kyoto
seen as the best option to address climate change Agreement is to be signed in Copenhagen,
whereas the adaptation emphasis has been much although developing countries have offered more
stronger in the developing world. in emissions trading than developed countries,
Any mitigation strategy has to acknowledge where the US, Canada, Japan and Australia have
that there is a resource constraint, particularly been particularly cautious about future commit-
with reference to oil and gas and that, even with- ments. There is hope that a new treaty can see a
out that resource constraint, supplies are vulnera- 20 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020. This
ble to geopolitical disruption. Mitigation implies follows the agreement signed between EU mem-
a transition but in the transition itself there are bers in late 2008. Central to the establishment
considerable regulatory and acceptance barri- of a successful post-Kyoto settlement will be a
ers. These barriers are reinforced by the fact that strong emissions trading market within which
over the last 50 years the global energy system the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
has migrated from small distribution systems to where developed countries can buy emission
large-scale systems that have a commercial life rights from developing countries will ourish.
span of 40 years plus. Moving away from such There are still issues, however, around the crea-
centralized systems remains a challenge. tion of adaptation funds, particularly with respect
Ironically central to this challenge is the fact to the size of funds not adequately addressing the
that fossil fuels, especially coal and lignite remain challenge of adaptation in developing countries.
an option, despite them compounding the prob- Part of the problem of determining energy
lem of accelerated climate change. Nuclear power futures is the powerful role of monopoly and
remains an option although there continues to be oligopoly suppliers in determining choice. One
considerable public concern about the deploy- needs look no further than Gazprom where
ment of this resource, not least because the issue Russias position as a monopoly supplier of gas
of high level nuclear waste has not been resolved. to Europe through the Ukraine has produced a
Both existing fossil fuel and nuclear power are cold winter for many European states dependent
essentially large-scale and somewhat inex- on imports. It is this mixture of economic and
ible, useful for base-load generation but unable political muscle that gives rise to such resource
to address the issue of peak demand. IPCC 4 confrontations where the legalities of market
addressed key mitigation technologies by sec- position are abandoned because the politics is
tor. This is detailed in Table 1.4. On the energy more powerful than the law, but there are signi-
supply side, the emphasis is on carbon capture cant antecedents to this recent demonstration of
and sequestration but in most other sectors the Russias political economy of energy, not least the
emphasis is on a surge for high efciency tech- operations of BP, Shell and Exxon in attempting
nologies. to sway political leadership in the Middle East
Mitigation is necessary to stabilize the con- in the early part of the 20th century. Over time,
centration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however, the oil and gas oligopoly, once known
the stronger the mitigation effort, the larger and as the seven sisters has been consolidated which
quicker will be the impact and stabilization. In again produces interesting anomalies. Despite, for
all IPCC scenarios the strongest emphasis is on example, Shell, BP and Exxon still leading the
The Changing Energy Landscape 27
Forbes List, a position generated by their domi- While there is great enthusiasm for a market-
nance in the oil and gas industry, they proclaim based approach to energy systems, there are a
via advertising that they are taking a leading role number of cautionary voices arguing the need
in promoting renewable energy; this marketing for a robust market-based mechanism in order to
position is aptly described as greenwash for it create a price signal that strongly infers the need
is but a small proportion of their overall budgets to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
which continue to be derived from carbon-based In this opening chapter, the problems sur-
fuels. Furthermore, depending on the statemar- rounding the future of energy use have been
ket axis, monopolies can also exist with the state. touched upon. Specic challenges including the
Nowhere is this more true than in France where drive for efciency, as well as an uncertain future
EDF has difculty in dening its position against for the present dominance of conventional fuels
European common market requirements of com- and potential shift to nuclear power, are discussed
petition and where it promotes intensication of in more detail in the following chapters. This
nuclear generation not only in France but in the book concludes by considering the range of pos-
more liberalized energy economies such as the sible energy futures.
UK.There is much to be explored in the political
economy of energy resource and infrastructure.
One of the most disturbing observations to
make about the future of energy is that, largely, References
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28 The Future of Energy Use
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2
This chapter provides an overview of the cost of investment or for research and development,
energy and scenario planning. These broad, often and energy policies all have a great inuence on
overlapping themes, underpin wider aspects of prices, as do company policies on rates of return
energy security and energy planning. In explor- and on marketing.
ing the cost of energy and scenario planning, However, estimating the real cost of energy
complexities arise including aspects related to from any given source is necessary if decisions on
the modern day issue of climate change and new investment are to be made. Investments may
drive for sustainability. For management deci- be in the supply of energy, its distribution or in
sions to effectively address the multi-faceted the technologies for converting the distributed
nature of an increasingly globalized economy, energy into the energy services demanded by the
national and international energy markets must customer. Most public controversy surrounds the
harness approaches that adopt multi-perspective construction of new electricity generation plants
and holistic planning. Ultimately, addressing the and the electricity industry will be used as the
energy conundrum is a 21st century challenge. main example in this chapter. It is chosen not
This challenge is associated specically with the only because of the controversy over nuclear,
urgent need to decarbonize economies without coal, gas or renewable sources of supply, but also
compromising economic development, all the because it is the most intensively analysed of the
while striving towards energy and environmental energy industries and the issues are more clearly
security. This means that revisiting the question understood. Other energy sectors, such as space
of cost is an imperative for all stakeholders. What heating, use a larger fraction of the nations deliv-
is the cost of energy? is as pertinent a question as ered energy and transport is becoming the largest
ever. In this chapter we will examine and explain polluter of the environment. But the multiplicity
why several answers are misleading and unsatis- of buildings and of vehicles, each with their dif-
factory. ferent characteristics, makes them difcult exam-
The cost of energy, for most of us, is rep- ples to use.
resented in our electricity, gas or petrol bills.
These, however, show only the prices charged
by the companies to the consumer and usually
have a fairly tenuous relationship to the costs of
energy. Government tax policies, tax credits for
32 The Future of Energy Use
Biogas 20 60kW 80
Pico/microhydro 5 300W 30
15 1kW 30
30 100kW 30
Mini hydro 30 5MW 45
Large hydro 40 100MW 50
Pumped storage 40 150MW 10
hydro
Diesel/gasoline 10 300, 1kW 30 30
generator
20 100kW 80 5MW 80 5MW 10
Microturbines 20 150kW 80
Fuel cells 20 80 5MW 80
Oil/gas 25 150MW 10
combined
turbines
Oil/gas 25 300MW 80
combined cycle
Coal steam 30 300MW 80
subcritical sub,
SC, USC
30 500MW 80
Coal IGCC 30 300MW 80
30 500MW 80
Coal AFB 30 300MW 80
30 500MW 80
Oil steam 30 300MW 80
Source: Adapted from ESMAP, 2007, p28
environmental dimensions with the purely eco- For example, it is generally agreed that when
nomic, accordingly leading to greater environ- considered comparatively, fossil fuels fare worst in
mental sustainability. However, nding the most terms of the range and severity of their direct
appropriate and effective mechanisms for dealing adverse impacts. Despite this given known, it
with externalities is complex. Including external should be recognized that all forms of energy gen-
costs is just one mechanism see Box 2.1. eration are associated with detrimental impacts,
All energy technologies will have some sort even, for example, wind power. For instance,
of environmental impact and this will vary accord- when considering its whole life cycle, negative
ing to the type of primary energy resource used. impacts include the construction, installation and
Cost of Energy and Scenario Planning 35
decommissioning of a wind turbine. Concerns of producing electricity from coal or oil and
can arise regarding perceived impacts upon amen- increase the cost of electricity production from
ity values (usually aesthetic impacts) for onshore gas by 30 per cent (European Commission,
systems, and concerns about ecological impacts 2003). Table 2.2 details a comprehensive list of
on marine systems for offshore wind generation. external costs associated with electricity produc-
Finding an agreed and consistent method capa- tion for different technology options in different
ble of calculating these values is problematic but EU member states. Unsurprisingly, fossil fuels are
important. If an agreed method, with the capacity most costly. Energy costs rose sharply in 2008.
to calculate whole life costs of energy generation The cost of energy in 2008 ranged from 8 to 18
were established, certain hot spots and/or bur- pence per kWh, dependent on the supplier and
dens, could be identied and utilized to address tariff regime, proving that externalities from fossil
potential implications for investment decisions in fuels continue to have a substantial impact upon
energy generation capacity and associated infra- price.
structure. Since the original work of ExternE, a num-
In the 1990s, the European Union (EU) ber of related studies have been undertaken to
Commission launched ExternE, a major research develop more accurate methods of quantifying
programme to provide a scientic basis for the the social and environmental damage resulting
quantication of energy related externalities from energy consumption. Some of these studies
and to give guidance supporting the design of are outlined here:
internalization measures. The programme used a
bottom-up impact pathway assessment in which
environmental benets and costs are estimated by NEWEXT (New Elements for the Assessment
following the pathway from single source emis- of External Costs from Energy Technologies)
sions via changes of air, soil and water quality
to physical impacts, such as increased emissions. NEWEXT revisited some of the major uncer-
ExternE argues that a bottom-up approach is tainties in external cost data. Major uncertain-
needed as external costs are highly site depend- ties in the current external cost data result from
ent. A reference scenario based on background is uncertainties in the monetary valuation of mor-
then used as a comparison to a scenario where tality effects. This study also addressed some
the additional emissions from the activity are omissions, such as impacts on ecosystems due
introduced. An analysis of pathway dispersion to to acidication, eutrocation and global warm-
different receptors is used to establish the dose ing. The existing accounting framework was also
rate and exposure to derive differences in physi- criticized for not taking into account the con-
cal impacts on public health, crops and building tamination of water and soil. It addressed the
material. The nal stage in the analysis evaluates unbalanced treatment of severe accidents, as the
the impacts in monetary terms. For damage to current framework is very much focused on acci-
marketed items such as crops and materials, mar- dents in the nuclear fuel chain, while neglecting
ket prices are used to evaluate damage. Drawing severe accidents from other energy sources. The
from welfare theory, non-marketed goods such principal areas of research encompassed:
as damage to human health and amenity loss are
evaluated on the basis of the willingness-to-pay monetary valuation of increased mortality
or willingness-to-accept approach that is based risks from air pollution;
on individual preferences as illustrated in Box 2.2. monetary valuation of ecological and CO2
The ExternE study found that externalities impacts based on preferences revealed in polit-
ranged from 40 billion euro to 70 billion euro ical negotiations (standard-price approach);
for fossil fuel and nuclear in 2003. The study assessment of environmental impacts and
highlighted, that if included in energy prices, resulting externalities from multi-compart-
identied externalities would double the cost ment (air/water/soil) impact pathways;
36 The Future of Energy Use
1 Travel costs have been used to value National Parks in the US by surveying visitors to determine
drive time, socio-economic status, frequency of visits, and so forth. The derived data are used to
calculate the value of the amenity.
2 Hedonic pricing is used to estimate economic values for ecosystem or environmental services
that directly affect market prices. It is most commonly applied to variations in housing prices
that reect the value of local environmental attributes, meaning that people will pay more for a
property in an area of high environmental quality as compared to a similar property in an area
with a lower environmental quality.
Source: ORiordan, 2001
Table 2.2 External costs for electricity production in the EU for existing technologiesa (in cent per kWhb)
Country Coal and Peat Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro PV Wind
lignite
AT 13 23 0.1
BE 415 12 0.5
DE 36 58 12 0.2 3 0.6 0.05
DK 47 23 1 0.1
ES 58 12 35c 0.2
FI 24 25 1
FR 710 811 24 0.3 1 1
GR 58 35 1 00.8 1 0.25
IE 68 34
IT 36 23 0.3
NL 34 12 0.7 0.5
NO 12 0.2 0.2 00.25
PT 47 12 12 0.03
SE 24 0.3 00.07
UK 47 35 12 1 0.15
Notes: Global warming is valued with a range of damage cost estimates from 18 to 46 per ton of CO2
a
b
Sub-total of quantiable externalities (such as global warming, public health, occupational health material damage)
c
Biomass co-red with lignites
assessment of externalities from major acci- clean renewable technologies would remove bar-
dents in non nuclear fuel chains; riers for innovation and provide greater moti-
methodology testing and revision of external vation for the uptake of the renewable energy
cost estimates; sector. The feed-in tariff system (FIT)1 is a policy
dissemination. instrument that encourages and promotes the use
of renewable energy sources for electricity (RES-
For further detail see the NEWTEXT Website E) (Rio and Gual, 2007). For example, subsidies
(www.ier.uni-stuttgart.de/forschung/projekt- for wind technology and FITs in Spain have been
websites/newext/nexabout.html#Objectives). attributed to increased efciency of use and rapid
development of technological innovation in
many regions across Spain. These policies appear
Maxima to have succeeded in connecting formerly iso-
lated rural areas to energy supplies, stimulating
Maxima (Dissemination of external costs of further economic growth and security of sup-
electricity supply making electricity external ply. Investment has resulted in the impetus for
costs known to policy makers) focused on the technological innovation2 in line with economic
development of tools, indicators and operational development, triggering rural regeneration, as
parameters for assessing sustainable transport and witnessed in areas such as the Navarre region
energy systems performance (economic, envi- where 51.7 per cent of total energy consump-
ronmental and social) and effective methods for tion is provided by wind power alone (Nature,
communicating these beyond the scientic com- 2007a).
munity. See the Maxima website for further detail The success of the Navarre Region in north-
(http://maxima.ier.uni-stuttgart.de/). east Spain led to its commendation in 2005 for
having the best regional set of policies in Europe
EXTERNE-POL at the Conference for Renewable Energy in Ber-
lin (Nature, 2007a). Characteristic of these poli-
EXTERNE-POL (Extension of Accounting cies is that adoption of sustainable energy systems
Framework and Policy Applications) was the con- is facilitated by engaging individuals from a bot-
tinuation of the ExternE project series for the tom-up/grass roots level, as empowerment to
analysis of the external costs of energy. Its objec- key stakeholders enables more equitable decision
tives were: making pertinent to those involved with locally
agreed, implemented and managed energy sys-
improving, validating and extending the tems.
methodology of ExternE;
providing an assessment of new technologies
Renewable energy supply: electricity,
for energy systems;
implementing the methodology in the acces- transport and heat sectors
sion countries of Eastern Europe;
creating a permanent internet site for ExternE. The value given to facilitating the development
of renewable energy technologies to supply
Further information on EXTERNE-POL can future energy needs is considerable. Yet, as can
be found at www.externe.info/exterpol.html. be seen in Figure 2.1, the growth rate and con-
sumption of the renewable sector across member
states of the EU is highly variable. The absence
Subsidies and feed-in tariffs of coordinated national policies across mem-
ber states, weak regulatory frameworks and the
Transferring the considerable subsidy currently absence of mandatory frameworks for renewa-
enjoyed by the heavily polluting industries to bles in the transport sector and heating/cooling
38 The Future of Energy Use
60 12 Electricity
(excluding Hydro)
50 10 Heat
40 8
30 6
20 4
10 Transport
2
0 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 2.1 The contribution of renewable energy (electricity, transport and heat) 19902004 (mtoe) in EU
countries
sectors has resulted in weak growth for both sec- future availability of fuels, and their
tors. Conversely, Directive 2001/77/EC, (an EU predominantly decentralised nature
directive, mandatory from 2001), appears to have makes our societies less vulnerable.
driven a steady growth pattern in renewables for It is thus undisputed that renewable
the electricity sector. energies constitute a key element of
A viable energy future of low carbon energy a sustainable future. (COM, 2006,
economies and security of supply is possible by p1)
shifting from conventional fossil fuels to renew-
ables through policy measures. This includes Policies for renewable energy supply, however,
regulatory frameworks requiring compliance to require uniform application and national com-
stipulated targets, FITs to encourage efciency, mitment across all member states to ensure set
stimulation of market competitiveness via a range targets are achieved or even surpassed, to encour-
of subsidies to the renewable energy sector and age competition and growth in the renewable
the decentralization of energy systems. The EU energy sector, to facilitate a denite departure
recognizes that roadmapping a range of tangible from the traditional hydrocarbon-based econo-
renewable energy futures is essential to achieving mies of the past. Established on past and present
both clean energy supply and security, particu- growth rates, there is a clear growth rate in
larly as renewables are quoted as being advanta- three sectors, suggesting that these three exhibit
geous because: the greatest potential for transfer to renewable
sources: electricity, transportation and space heat-
They are largely indigenous, they do ing (COM, 2006).
not rely on uncertain projections on the
Cost of Energy and Scenario Planning 39
1200
Wind offshore
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: COM, 2006
140
RES-H energy output [Mtoe/year]
120
Historical development Future development
Solar thermal
100 heat
80 Geothermal
heat pumps
60
Geothermal
40 non heat pumps
Biomas heat
20
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
800
Avoided CO2 emissions (due to new RES
700
plant (2005 to 2020)) [Mt CO2]
RES-T
600
RES-H non grid
500
300
RES-E&H CHP
200
RES-E pure power
100
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Figure 2.5 Avoided CO2 emissions due to new RES deployment up to 2020 in the EU
Cost of Energy and Scenario Planning 41
technologies generating electricity and heat of societies needs, despite the known fact that
(renewable energy source electricity = RES- many energy systems are not neutral in terms
E and renewable energy source heat = RES- of environmental consequences (Dincer, 2002).
H, transport = T), and their output capacities, It has been established in the previous section
projected until 2020 (COM, 2006). Figure 2.5 that energy lies at the crux of the sustainable
outlines projected gains up until 2020, in terms development paradigm as few activities adversely
of carbon reduction via the adoption of a range affect the environment as much as those linked
of renewable energy alternatives. Each scenario to energy use. More than three-quarters of the
indicates a positive exponential growth pattern worlds nite resources (including oil, coal, gas and
in all sustainable renewable energy technologies, uranium) used for energy are consumed by one-
for heat, electricity production and transporta- quarter of the worlds population. This lopsided
tion sectors and correspondingly links renewable global energy balance is a dynamic that forces
trends with rising CO2 reductions. inequitable energy consumption and scale of use
in favour of the developed world, dominated by
the supply of nite resources, the nature of which
Commercial energy supply will, despite polemical debate, undoubtedly lead
to an overall shortage of supply (Stanford, 1997).
strategies Crude oil, by far the most widely supplied of
hydrocarbons is characterized by vertically inte-
Diminishing domestic resources of nite fuels are grated systems of corporate control over almost
driving exploration, threatening to encroach on the entire supply chain, from upstream (explo-
the worlds last remaining protected areas such ration to distribution via pipeline or tanker) to
as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), downstream (rening, blending, storage, distribu-
extraction, and use of dirtier, hydrocarbons, tion and sale of completed products). When con-
including heavy oils, shale and tar-sands (WWF, sidering energy futures, OBrien and OKeefe
2008). These issues raise questions as to: (i) the (2006) emphasize the importance of energy
adequacy of existing environmental policies con- security and price stability, particularly as end-
cerning GHGs, environmental protection and users are concerned primarily with the service
sustainable energy; and (ii) the level of commit- provided, not the nature of the supply.
ment of nation states within the developed world The three primary sectors, transportation,
to lead and move away from the traditional pri- electricity production and space heating remain
mary energy mix in favour of sustainable energy heavily reliant on the supply and use of fossil
futures. Contrary to the opening sentence of this fuels. Despite polarization of the climate change
section, an added dimension to the hydrocarbon debate towards GHG emissions, in the context of
debate is the fact that Peak Oil theory is not the global energy balance, energy futures are cur-
universally accepted. For instance, Odell, (2004) rently steered towards and appear likely to con-
critiques the theory, arguing the case for techno- tinue dependency on conventional hydrocarbons
logical development in extraction.This highlights (COM, 2000). Energy policy formation in its
the idea that oil scarcity and Peak Oil theory present form, does not address the possibility that
do not necessarily translate to the non-existence future shortages of the conventional hydrocarbon
of oil, although extraction of nite resources is primary mix could lead to the use of coal and
increasingly expensive and unsustainable (The heavy oils, shale and tar-sands with a propensity
Economist, 2008a). Conicting critiques illustrate to emit even higher GHG emissions.
the complexity of the energy debate. Changes in the ownership of energy systems,
Energy is a fundamental necessity and cru- primarily, from state control through privatiza-
cial element for living within the contemporary tion have resulted in the commodication of
world. It is vital for economic development and energy (OBrien and OKeefe, 2006). Although
an equally integral factor for the sustainability climate change issues and the twinned paradigm
42 The Future of Energy Use
and trees outside forests (FAO, 2008). However, FAO have recently completed a global review of
this is not the whole story. Wood is only energy biofuel development; the key points are summa-
in its nal phase of consumption; before that nal rized in Box 2.4. In a separate scientic study,
consumption biomass resources offer a range of FAO looked at traditional biomass consump-
multiple and simultaneous end uses such as fod- tion at the household level in the developing
der provision, medicines, foliage for roong, and world. It concluded that biomass resources could
so forth. It is difcult to plan wood for energy be used efciently at small scales, especially if
as a single end use except in developed coun- attention was paid to appropriate end use tech-
tries where the system of mono-cropped planta- nologies. It noted that it was possible to develop
tions on marginal land is the dominant forestry virtuous cycles of local energy use rather than
paradigm. The situation is reversed in developing vicious cycles of deforestation. In general, virtu-
countries where forest resources are frequently osity could be sourced by emphasizing improved
the limitation on agricultural colonization; cer- insulation in traditional end use technologies.
tainly there is evidence from parts of Africa that This applied to both household and small scale
it is difcult to plant wood commercially because production activities such as charcoal making,
its relative abundance means that it is still regarded sh processing and tobacco curing. Increasingly
as rubbish (Van Gelder and OKeefe, 1995). sophisticated market chains were found to be
There has been signicant debate about the linking rural and coastal producers to centres of
production of biomass based commercial fuels. urban demand, where prices continued to rise,
44 The Future of Energy Use
suggesting that returns to producers will increase. beet and cane as well as oil seeds are limited
There was little evidence that local biomass in their ability to achieve targets for oil substitu-
activity was in direct competition with local tion. Sugar cane is perhaps the exception but, in
food production but, rather, that they could be all cases, there is competition for land and water
complementary. This shows that building on tra- that could be used for food and bre produc-
ditional biomass practice could produce local tion. A second generation of biofuels from lingo-
community business generation (FAO, 2009). cellulosic materials, such as cereal straw, bagasse,
The rst generation of biofuels largely forest residues and vegetation grasses holds more
produced from food crops such as grain, sugar promise. The International Energy Agency (IEA)
Cost of Energy and Scenario Planning 45
(2008) estimate such fuel could be delivered for regarding the shortage of conventional hydrocar-
US$0.801.00 per litre but there is no clean bons has also raised awareness of the signicance
technology best pathway between biochemical of adopting the Precautionary Principle in the
and thermo-chemical routes. Without govern- context of climate and energy futures. Climate
ment subsidy, again with the exception of sugar change issues have consequently acted as a back-
cane, such crops for oil are a long way from the drop to and provided the impetus for energy pol-
market. icy formation (OBrien and OKeefe, 2006).
Unless GHG emissions are mitigated, EU
international commitments may not be met. In
the UK, research by the Tyndall Centre acknowl-
International commitments edges that reducing emission levels by 60 per
cent by 2050 will be challenging but could be
By referring to the previous paragraphs, it achieved through additional measures such as
quickly becomes evident that consideration of energy efciency and renewable energy tech-
existing and future energy supply is of signicant nologies (Anderson, 2005; OBrien and OKeefe,
importance for both developed and developing 2006).
countries. Moreover, an additional aspect of this The UKs Kyoto target of a 20 per cent
challenge is the fact that the global energy con- domestic reduction of CO2 below 1990 levels by
text is rapidly being shaped by the escalation in 2010, however, appears overly ambitious at the
climate change policy formation. Therefore, it is very least, as approximately only a 4.2 per cent
crucial to consider energy supply in the context reduction in CO2 levels had been achieved by
of international climate change policy. 2004 (FOE, 2005). Presently, renewables contrib-
Since its inception in 1997, the Kyoto Pro- ute 2 per cent of the overall energy supply of the
tocol has triggered a series of mega-formulaic electricity, heat and transport sectors as illustrated
international conventions, endless meetings in Figure 2.7 (BERR, 2008; Stanford, 1997).
and debates, which have, in themselves, resulted Conversely, the EUs drive to become a world
in intense widespread international dialogue leader in GHG reduction and provider of clean
regarding the future of energy. Ongoing debate energy alternatives has seen the setting for an
40%
35% Geothermal
Biofuels
MSW (biodegradable)
30%
Biogas
Wood and wood wastes
25% Solar Heat
The UK has acheived a relatively PV
low overall rate of renewable Wind
20% energy consumption in comparison
Hydro
to other EU Member States
15%
10%
5%
0%
LV SE FI AT PT DK SI EE LT IT ES FR GR PL CY SK DE HU CZ IE NL BE UK LU MT BG RU
actions (forecasting) including policies, attitudes conditions. Schwartz (1991) denes scenarios in
and behaviour (Schwartz, 1991; Huss, 1988). the following way:
Normative or strategic scenarios encompass the
rationale of starting with a desired outcome and Scenarios are not predictions. It is sim-
working backwards, termed backcasting or as a ply not possible to predict the future
reference case, to arrive at the most sustainable with certainty Rather, scenarios
scenario (IEA/OECD, 2003; OBrien et al, 2007) are vehicles for helping people learn.
or desirable future that also accounts for a con- (Schwartz, 1991, p6)
sistent suite of trends and/or patterns (Ratcliffe,
2003, cited by Kelly et al, 2004).
However, a successful range of scenarios does
not necessarily mean a wholly accurate depiction Parameters shaping scenarios
of events is ultimately achieved (Bradeld et al,
2005; Shwartz, 1991) Rather, the establishment Energy supply and demand and, increasingly,
of scenarios provides a vehicle to enhance deci- GHG emissions as well as price and cost param-
sion making by extrapolating probabilistic factors eters, play a determinant role within the suite of
to shape a range of alternative future conditions, factors shaping scenario formation. This range of
therein, equipping planners and policy makers parameters can be complex, as an emphasis on
with the knowledge to mitigate or adapt to future scenario planning is to signicantly challenge the
48 The Future of Energy Use
current business as usual approach (Ravetz, 2000, energy scenario planning is the role of energy
cited by Kelly et al, 2004), incorporating: efciency: from the supply side through to trans-
formation to end-user, encompassing transfer of
1 a synthesis of pertinent information; energy, stability and energy security. However, in
2 development of a consistent descriptive and order to drive change towards low carbon energy
plausible set of explanations of possible future futures and a reduction of emissions via the appli-
scenarios via a structured methodological cation of scenarios, Anderson (2005) recognizes
application; and the importance of collaboration and the inclusion
3 an evaluation of the implications of the of all sectors, including both private and public,
scenarios in question for the said context as necessary to ultimately achieving sustainable
(OBrien, 2004). energy futures and lower carbon emissions.
y)
Impact
en
Dr ocia
in en om
from
e&
ivi l d
S
rity dim s fr
ng im
energy sector
ce
for en
proffered, to enhance and provide greater clar-
for
ce sio
ing
sf n
ity as to the best practicable way forward. The
ro
iv
pa
Dr
m
Responses
s
(di
of institutional
Dimension
value of scenario planning by the Intergovern-
State
Institutional State
Impact
mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
of energy
sector
from energy
sector
been widely acknowledged in facilitating future
Economic Environmental impact analyses of various climate change sce-
State State
narios, including GHG projections incorporat-
Driving forces from
Energy sector of ing energy, supply and demand, demographic
Economic dimension
change, policies and socio-economic factors to
Source: IEA, 2008
create scenarios (narratives or storylines) describ-
ing futures that could be rather than futures that
Figure 2.8 Interrelations between sustainability will be. Projections in this instance are long-term.
dimensions of the energy sector For example, the Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) prepared for the IPCC Third
Assessment Report has scenarios projecting to
2100 (IPCC, 2008). However, a major constraint
path. The scenario approach is thus particularly of projecting too far ahead, resulting in inaccura-
suitable for the analysis of possible environmental cies the further ahead a scenario is planned, is
impacts of energy trends and facilitates analysis illustrated by the fact that IPCC predictions of
of alternative policies as it recognizes the fun- GHG emissions have increased more rapidly than
damental interrelationship between social, eco- projected (EA, 2008b).
nomic and environmental factors as shown in Nevertheless, if constraints are recognized,
Figure 2.8. the efcacy of scenarios in energy futures ena-
ble projections to be made and policy decisions
undertaken in the face of uncertainty (Mietzner
Scenarios used for energy and and Reger, 2004). Multifarious groups includ-
ing military analysts, governments, global insti-
emission reduction tutions and the private sector, such as the EU,
the IPCC, the International Institute for Applied
Mounting concern about the adverse effects of Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Royal Dutch Shell
climate change linked with GHGs has predomi- (and other energy suppliers) have used scenarios
nantly resulted from increasing climatic changes as a tool to initiate or conduct alternative energy
reported in the media, government reports and policies (EA, 2008b).
peer-review literature. For instance, evidence of
anthropogenic climate change has been witnessed
in far-ung areas such as the Arctic, where near-
surface warming is reported in a recent publica-
Scenarios for different energy
tion of Nature (2008) as being twice the global and climate futures
average over the past two decades (Graversen et
al, 2008). Thus, the exibility of scenario plan- In the UK the Climate Impacts Programme
ning has led to a range of scenarios using epis- (UKCIP) has produced a wide range of tech-
temological theories as indicators to map energy nological climate change scenarios and predic-
and climate change futures, demonstrated via the tions of future GHG emissions, the latest of
50 The Future of Energy Use
which, published in November 2008, are known Although scenario planning is typically cen-
as UKCIP08. These modelled scenarios detail tred on developing alternative futures under a
probabilistic scenario futures for climate change range of policy alternatives, many of the existing
over 30 year intervals from 2010 to 2099 on a models are founded on long-term projections
25 25km scale within the UK (UKCIP, 2008). based on current, and expected future trends
According to the latest UKCIP information to determine any given future scenario, often
booklet: termed as a reference case. This approach incor-
porates top-down and macro-models, such as the
UKCIP08 will be the fth genera- IEA models and other models analysed under
tion of UK climate change scenarios, the Energy Modelling Forum as well as bot-
describing how the climate of the UK tom-up approaches such as the technology spe-
might change during the 21st century. cic, Western European Markal model under the
(UKCIP, 2008) Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme
(ETSAP) (a generic model tailored by input data
Even staunch critics of the climate change phe- over a 4050 year period for a specic energy
nomenon recognize the usefulness of scenario system) (Koen and Morales, 2004).
planning. For instance, the US Climate Change The most socially conscious scenario formu-
Technology Program (2005) recognizes that, lation covering all resources is that undertaken
despite the inherent uncertainties of climate sci- by the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) using
ence (in terms of ascertaining the accuracy of Polestar, which is the core programme of the
levels of greenhouse gas emissions), a global per- Tellus Institute. It explicitly focuses on research
spective reecting shifting trends of demographic and action for a global civilization of sustain-
dynamics and future economic activities as well ability, equity and well-being (www.gtinitiative.
as the efcacy and nancial cost of technologi- org). More clearly than other scenario building
cal innovation in the renewable energy sector, it shows how political economy dictates resource
although characteristically variable, need to be outcomes including energy and emission load-
accounted for in scenario planning to mitigate ings.
greenhouse gases, climate change, future prob-
lems of energy supply and demand, reliability and
security (CCTP, 2006).
Advancement in various clean technolo- Limitations
gies is increasing, one fuel-cell technology,
particularly as hydrogen fuel technology offers Conictive indicators are intrinsically difcult
enormous potential for the automotive sector, as to incorporate within energy scenario planning,
reected in the investment of US$1.2 billion by although various phenomena allow different nar-
the US Government and recent talks between ratives to be created enabling more comprehen-
the US Senate, the US National Renewable Lab- sive analysis of policy futures. The efciency of
oratory, General Motors, the California Fuel Cell scenario planning is difcult to judge when sce-
Partnership and other research and design (R&D) nario planning itself can be built upon other sce-
organizations, on 16 April, 2008 (Adfero, 2008). narios from different sources as well as a range of
These advancements in technological innovation indicators. Clarication of the level of impact and
enable greater efcacy in the projection of differ- the degree of uncertainty is of paramount impor-
ent futures via scenario analysis. Azar et al (2003) tance. As such, the complexity of global systems
similarly advocate the future of hydrogen to fuel such as climate change and energy, demographic
transportation through a range of different trans- transition and economies of scale can often be
port scenarios based on global energy scenarios reduced too simplistically in order to provide an
that meet stringent CO2 emissions constraints. answer most desired by the government, com-
pany and/or international body/agency in ques-
Cost of Energy and Scenario Planning 51
tion (Kelly et al, 2004). This approach to scenario hydrocarbons to sustainable renewable energy
planning can essentially overlook the importance sources becomes the norm rather than the privi-
and inuence of complexity and uncertainty. lege and speciality of a few nation states. Integra-
In its reductionist form, based on past and tive policy approaches encourage a broad-based,
current trends, scenario planning via forecasting diverse range of small-scale, local, regional and
can unintentionally be inherently erroneous, too bottom-up renewable energy systems with grid
narrow in focus and too conservative in approach connection that have the capacity to provide
(MacKay and McKiernan, 2003). Conversely, sce- effective, exible, resilient and secure energy sup-
nario planning can be applied with an approach plies. Renewable technology uses are dependent
that is too wide and liberal. Gaining a middle on indigenous resources, are close to the point of
ground is thus problematic given the complex- source, and usually managed by the communities
ity of energy systems within the socio-economic in which they serve, ensuring meaningful own-
and geopolitical dynamics that ultimately shape ership, local management and security of sup-
the futures of energy supply, demand and end ply (OBrien and OKeefe, 2006; Nature, 2007a).
use. Moreover, the further forward the scenario Unlike the highly structured, top-down and cen-
planning is, the more inaccurate the predictions tralized system of the UK, other member states of
become (Kelly et al, 2004). the EU, including Denmark and Germany have
shown that market intervention, deregulation
and a move away from centralized policies (typi-
cally small-scale, more interconnected with more
Conclusion interactive users) are demonstrably and arguably
more effective in decoupling energy from eco-
The most successful approaches to achieving nomic growth (COM, 2006).
renewable energy capacity and reducing GHGs Economies of scale have the potential to
are witnessed in EU states such as Denmark emulate the large scale of former hydrocarbon
which have national legislative policies providing infrastructures using indigenous resources for
viable alternatives to conventional hydrocarbon renewable energy, such as on- or offshore wind
reliance. An example of an effective policy instru- farms by subsidizing new technologies in order
ment is the use of FITs, which ensure a prot to remove trade and innovation barriers and
margin to anyone selling excess electricity back encourage diversication of RESs. German and
to the national grid as well as requiring utility Spanish legal regulation, for instance, requires
companies to purchase electricity from renewa- utility companies to purchase electricity from
bles (OBrien and OKeefe, 2006). Denmark set RESs, generating rapid growth in the renewable
the pace from the 1980s with a suite of integra- energy sector, both on the large and small scale
tive environmental policies and a series of tar- (Rio and Gual, 2007).
geted action plans transcending a broad spectrum Ultimately, against conventional hydrocar-
of Danish industry, simultaneously stimulating bon-based energy sources, the costs of renew-
economic growth, stabilizing energy consump- able technologies are falling, becoming more
tion, and reduction of GHGs. Rapid develop- commercially viable and feasible as alternatives
ment in the renewable energy sector has enabled for energy futures. Renewables have exhibited a
Denmark to establish itself as a world leader in steady reduction in cost and efciency in design
renewable technologies, particularly wind tur- over the last 20 years. Wind energy cost per kWh
bine technology (Moller et al, 2004). has fallen by 50 per cent over the last 15 years
In the case of the EU, it is necessary for the whilst the performance of turbines has increased
uptake of integrative and transparent policies by a factor of 10. Technological advances in
including the internalization of externalities the efciency of solar photovoltaic systems
within national policy regimes across all mem- are continuing while the cost of systems is 60
ber states, to ensure the shift from conventional per cent cheaper than in 1990 (COM, 2006).
52 The Future of Energy Use
Additionally, lead times are short, at around 6 The UK Local Government Act (2000) resulted
12 years and amortization costs are consider- in a modernization programme for local gov-
ably lower than traditional alternatives such as ernment incorporating strategic, integrated and
nuclear. futures-orientated approaches as conditions for
local governance (Kelly et al, 2004).
Increasingly, those member states in favour of
7 International debate on climate change has
devolved energy system approaches have engaged
traditionally hinged on various factors such as
wide public support for both the adoption of the USs reluctance to comply with the Kyoto
renewable energy systems capable of reduc- Protocol despite the US being the worlds larg-
ing the impact of GHGs and a commitment est GHG emitter. Debate has re-aligned itself
to investment in a diverse range of alternatives towards the emerging economies of India and
to the coal and nuclear options (OBrien and China as the US has recently been overtaken by
OKeefe, 2006).This seems particularly appropri- China in terms of emissions, due to its burning of
ate to many developing countries where power fossil fuels and manufacture of cement, although
capacities per individual plant are lower than in per capita terms, the US continues to be the
those in developed countries and where there is most proigate carbon emitting country (Nature,
no opportunity to access cheaper large scale trans- 2007b). Additionally, despite international con-
mission systems. sensus on the dangers of climate change (aside
from a recalcitrant few nations, namely the US, no
absolute consensus has been agreed as to the tip-
ping point value of GHGs (OBrien and OKeefe,
Notes 2006).
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Cost of Energy and Scenario Planning 55
This chapter is about the development of princi- many women carry 20kg of fuelwood an
ples that should underlie energy policy on a glo- average of 5km every day. This time could be
bal basis. They are commitments to a sustainable spent on childcare, education, socializing and
energy economy and to energy security. Given income generation (Wakeford, 2004).
these concerns, a commitment to a model of It should not contribute to climate change
good practice must be constructed and imple- but should use renewable sources or, at a mini-
mented in both developed and developing coun- mum, be carbon neutral.
tries. This inevitably demands a reexive policy It should be democratic. Ownership and man-
that takes into direct consideration the heteroge- agement should be local.
neous nature of energy supply technologies, and
local, regional and national cultural traditions. Thinking about energy technologies usually
The following discussion suggests a number of focuses only on the supply side. System think-
socio-economic, technical and environmental ing recognizes the demand side, that users are an
considerations for designing a sustainable energy essential component. But users are people and
economy for implementation in developing they have many roles in developing and manag-
countries. Their implementation is illustrated by ing the energy system. One simple example dem-
a case study of wood energy in Africa. onstrating the lack of energy services is that more
than a third of the worlds population (around 2
billion people) rely on traditional fuels (biomass,
wood, charcoal and dung) as a principal source
Re-thinking energy systems of fuel for cooking and space heating. This gure
is set to rise by a further 200 million by 2030
The United Nations Commission on Sustain- should current trends continue. Tragically, these
able Development (UNCSD) argues that access fuels increase morbidity and mortality among
to affordable energy services is a starting point more than 1.6 million women and children a
for thinking about energy systems (CSD, 2002). year from the pollution of indoor cooking res
An energy system must deliver the appropriate (ITDG, 2002).
service, at the point of need with the following Adding to the problem is that environmental
characteristics: degradation from commercial logging and agri-
cultural colonization accelerates rural to urban
It should enhance livelihood strategies.
migration. This accelerated rate of urbanization
Women in India regularly spend between
leads to a corresponding, and therefore grow-
two to seven hours each day collecting fuel
ing, demand for charcoal and increases pressure
for cooking and, in rural sub-Saharan Africa,
58 The Future of Energy Use
on the local biomass resource (Munslow et al, of the sustainable development arena (Batabyal,
1988; Leach and Mearns, 1998). With increasing 1998;Van der Leeuw and Leygonie, 2000; Waller,
pressure on the biomass resource due to charcoal 2001; Johnson and Wielchelt, 2004), but it is core
use, induced by human settlement together with to the framework for disaster risk reduction as
ecologically insensitive and destructive land use the global issue of climate change which affects
practice, accelerated environmental degradation people at the local level, often overlapping and
becomes an inevitable and unavoidable conse- converging with broader international agen-
quence of energy poverty (Hardoy et al, 2001). das. For instance, the Millennium Development
Such practices not only raise the number of haz- Goals (MDGs) and the Hyogo Declaration of the
ards and disasters dramatically at the local level United Nations International Strategy for Disas-
but contribute signicantly to heightened lev- ter Reduction (UN/ISDR) 2005 World Confer-
els of risk and reducing resilience (Abramovitz, ence declare:
2001).
Technology transfer as a single component We recognize the intrinsic relationship
of an energy approach which aims for sustain- between disaster reduction, sustainable
able, long-term energy provision is insufcient development and poverty eradication,
(Wakeford, 2004). Reliance on single or one-off among others. (UN/ISDR, 2005)
technological xes without consideration of the
need for adaptive capacity to build capability and The focus of actions within the international
robustness is erroneous, as such solutions cannot development arena are framed by ideas of gov-
be maintained, adapted or used for future and ernance, risk identication and reduction and
naturally evolving energy service requirements. preparedness (UN/ISDR, 2005). The Fourth
At best, this approach works in the short term. At Assessment Report of the IPCC also goes some
worst, such interventionist solutions are expen- way to emphasize that the climate change issue
sive, inappropriate, ill-thought out and ultimately is not just about increased warming but that it
reduce peoples resilience and therefore capacity is about climatic variability. Those most vulner-
and capability to spread risk in terms of energy able to such variability and uncertainty live in
sources and service provision. Resilience is there- developing countries which will be increasingly
fore key to any energy development process. subject to droughts, oods and storm surges.
Resilience is not a science, but a process, using Therefore, a greater emphasis on pre-disaster
human capacity and ingenuity (both of which planning for natural hazards with an emphasis
are socially constructed) to mitigate vulnerabili- on resilience and recovery of livelihood systems
ties and reduce risks. It is a measure of adaptive is paramount in planning energy system futures
capacity. Adaptation options or strategies can be (IPCC, 2007). Energy sub-systems at the liveli-
identied using participatory techniques based hood level necessarily require a coherent gov-
upon indigenous knowledge and local under- ernance response. The response needs to drive
standing to develop solutions. This is a social towards a resilience focus within development
learning process, a collective action and reection to allow space for local coping mechanisms and
that occurs among individuals and groups as they to ensure these resilience mechanisms are inbuilt
work to improve a situation (Keen et al, 2005). within appropriate technologies (OKeefe et al,
The concept of resilience has become an 2003; OBrien et al, 2006).
increasingly important factor within the con-
text of sustainable development as it is precisely
the element of resilience that needs to be con-
sidered within development to avoid disastrous
consequences and increased risk to both human
populations and the environment (Abramov-
itz, 2001). Resilience is not only a central facet
Energy and Development Planning 59
where interventions are needed by developmen- thinks that the days of large grid connected sys-
tal programmes to accelerate the change from tems are over. This argument, applicable to much
traditional fuel sources represented in Ladder of the developing world does not, however, con-
2 (EASE, undated). Ladder 2 then represents a tradict developments in Western Europe where
new development pattern different from that the UK national grid and the French electric-
of Ladder 1. It assumes that the technologies ity system are the most appropriate technology
used throughout the ladder will use renewable to supply part of a pan-EU supranational grid.
resources. Second, the end point assumes the Schneider lists the benets of small scale systems
development of autonomous small scale grid sys- as low capital and maintenance costs, high invest-
tems. The overall goal of this approach is poverty ment exibility and low grid losses (Schneider,
alleviation but in conjunction with the devel- 2000). David Appleyard claims that in Latin
opment of governance expressed through the America, where around a third of all people do
ownership, management and development of the not access mains electricity, distribution com-
energy system (OBrien et al, 2006). panies are estimated to be losing around 40 per
There are three reasons behind this neces- cent of generated electricity due to theft, poor
sary logic. First, many renewables are scattered maintenance and inefciency. Similar losses can
resources, scattered through space and time. They also be found in the distribution networks of
are ill suited to large scale interconnected grid Africa, Southeast Asia, the former Soviet Union
systems even when the potential surplus power and large swathes of eastern Europe (Appleyard,
can be fed back into the transmission system. 1999). Dunn makes a different point that 24/7
Despite this caveat, renewable energy can be built electricity supply at high voltages are a specic
as a clean and continuous system. requirement to industrialized societies, not the
Second, there are signicant issues about the developing world (Dunn, 2000). Decentralized
longevity of large scale interconnected approaches. micro-system approaches act to reduce vulner-
Mycle Schneider, director of the World Informa- ability through increasing diversity in power sup-
tion Service on Energy (WISE-Paris), writing for ply options and thus increase resilience.
the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), clearly
Energy and Development Planning 61
Third, autonomous systems, operated and Table 3.1 Features of sustainable energy systems
owned locally, can act as a lever for developing
governance. Essentially, they are democratic and Dimension Characteristics
reect the history of the development of energy
Appropriate Matched to the needs of the
resources in developed countries where in the
community and to cultural
rst instance most systems were developed by
norms renewable resource
local authorities. Such systems are still opera- Exploits indigenous Exploits local renewable
tional in developed countries; for example, on renewable resource resources such as water, solar,
the Hebridean Isle of Unst unused power from wind, geothermal, etc.
a wind turbine is used to generate hydrogen that Capacity enhancing It should enhance local
powers fuel cells during periods of low or no capacity and time to devote to
wind (PURE, 2000). other productive endeavours
In order to progress such system develop- such as income generation,
ment, there are four levels of planning that are education, socializing, etc.
required, namely: Adaptable It should be capable of
expanding and developing
Needs assessment: ensuring that a clear under- along with the capacity of the
standing of energy needs is generated. community
Energy mapping: knowing what local energy Easy to repair and Ease of use and repair freeing
resources exist. maintain the local community from
Support systems (technical, human and nan- dependence on outside
cial) that are clearly identied. expertise and distant supply
Appropriate level: dening the entry level lines
(ITDG, 2002; Brunt et al, 2004). Upgradeable They should be able to
integrate technological
improvements in a seamless
All case studies show the importance of micro-
manner appropriate with the
nance schemes owned by the community in
development of capacity of
ensuring the long-term success of small scale
the users
renewable energy projects. It is not a question of
technological capacity but one of political will Source: Adapted from OBrien et al, 2006
Interruptions to supply can lead to economic tional energy sector receives some US$200 bil-
shocks and concerns have been raised within lion in subsidies, making it difcult for emerging
the European Union (EU) regarding the secu- technologies such as renewables to compete.
rity of energy supply (OBrien et al, 2006). The These subsidies, coupled with a range of institu-
EU Green Paper on Energy Security points out tional and policy barriers inhibit the development
that 70 per cent of EU energy supplies will be of the renewable energy sector (Sawin, 2004).
imported by 2030 (COM, 2000). The Commis- The International Renewable Energy Confer-
sions response to the Green Paper acknowledged ence in 2004 concluded that removing subsidies
that it drew attention to the structural weak- and internalizing external costs would be neces-
nesses and geopolitical, social and environmental sary to establish a level playing eld (OBrien et
shortcomings of the EUs energy supply, notably al, 2006).
as regards European commitments in the Kyoto Despite the obstacles, the costs of renewable
Protocol (COM, 2002). Energy systems in the energy technologies continue to fall; the renewa-
developed world are not democratic. Ownership ble energy market reached a high of US$30 billion
is generally concentrated either through the state in 2004. Grid-connected Solar PV outstripped all
or, more recently, the market. Both approaches are other energy technologies in the world, by grow-
hierarchical. Privatization did not bring a move ing in existing capacity by 60 per cent each year
to a horizontal industrial structure or a more from 2000 to 2004. Harkins (2000) provides an
democratic shareholding base. As Thomas argues: excellent case study of the growth in Kenya. In
there is a serious risk that the electricity industry second place was wind power, which grew by 28
will become a weakly regulated oligopoly with a per cent in 2004 (Martinot et al, 2005). A number
veneer of competition (Thomas, 2004, p3). of commentators believe that falling costs and
Technology transfer debates to date have increasing demand for new energy technologies
not addressed these issues of scale. In particular, suggests renewables could become a signicant
technology transfers do not deal directly with part of the mainstream energy economy within a
the issue of the access of the poor to the services decade (Flavin, 2003; Sawin 2004).
generated, for example, the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. A
recent Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) survey summarized Facing the energy poverty issue
the emerging trend: a large and rapidly growing
portion of the CDM project portfolio has few There are still some 1.4 billion people who
direct environmental, economic or social effects will be without grid connection by 2030 (IEA,
other than GHG mitigation, and produces few 2002). The IEA argues that alternative pathways
outputs other than emissions credit (Ellis et al, are under development; but a comprehensive
2004, p32). approach would exercise the technology and
CDM is simply shifting the location of where develop capacity in transferring it to the bene-
the greenhouse gas emission reductions are gen- ciary. This process would enhance local capac-
erated and is failing to make a contribution to the ity and governance whilst taking a step towards
sustainable development of the host. breaking the energy poverty cycle (IEA, 2005).
Markets respond to signals. But industry often
misses signals when governments do not legislate
and regulate clearly, creating disruptive technolo-
Addressing the obstacles gies (Christensen, 1997; Christensen and Raynor,
2003). In the energy sector the emergence of small
The strongest obstacle to the delivery of a scale renewable technologies offers the scope for
small scale renewable future is the objections of a new approach to energy production and man-
existing producers (Dunn, 2000). The conven- agement but only if there is a clear framework
Energy and Development Planning 63
can be up to ve hours. Poorer urban households efciency, minimize environmental damage and
pay an increasing cash price because for most of are budget neutral, especially for poor people, is
them, collecting fuel is not possible as supplies needed. Furthermore, the concentration of energy
around towns become more and more depleted. investment in urban economic centres does not
A proportion of income in urban areas is spent encourage signicant rural development without
on switching to more advanced fuels. In Addis which rural resource depletion and migration to
Ababa, Ethiopia, for example, by the late 1980s, urban centres will grow (Energia, 2009). See Box
70 per cent of households had switched to kero- 3.1.
sene because wood and charcoal prices had risen. There is little doubt that a key issue in equity
Paradoxically, as the price of energy rises, the is the access of poorer households to fuel supplies.
demand does not fall. Therefore in developing Their need for energy is irreducible but the cost
countries, over the last 20 years, oil consumption in collection time or in cash has been rising over
continued to grow steadily, reecting the origi- the last 20 years. Institutional support for poorer
nal low consumption base, while in developed households must concentrate on minimizing the
countries it varied, following the movement in risk of fuel shortage. In rural areas, especially in
oil prices.This indicated both a higher volume of the case of refugees (the most vulnerable of the
consumption and the ability to lower consump- vulnerable), where fuel scarcity is compounded
tion through investment in energy efciency. by large local increases in population, policy must
Developing countries must have a right to the provide greater access to and control of produc-
economic opportunities enjoyed by developed tive resources by local people. In the case of refu-
countries. For that purpose, more investment gee settlements in Sudan, government policy puts
in state-of-the-art technologies that maximize a ceiling on their access to resources by insisting
66 The Future of Energy Use
that it should be no better than that of other local Fuelwood stress is also conditioned by social
people. At the same time, the activities of com- and demographic trends within African coun-
mercial farmers and commercial charcoal produc- tries; both overall population growth and rates
ers have led to a great reduction in the amount of of urbanization are exacerbating the problems. In
fuelwood available. Initiatives aimed at improv- particular, fuelwood policies do not fully consider
ing local fuel supplies through farm woodlands, the signicance of urbanization processes. Urban
social forestry and community forestry, however, growth rates of 10 per cent are the norm in
have been successful in some cases. Another way Africa and what were rural societies are becom-
of supporting the more disadvantaged in both ing increasingly urban. Population growth in
rural and urban areas is through income support rural areas affects fuelwood use in much the same
schemes that allow for the purchase of energy. way as it does other forms of resource exploi-
In rural areas such income may be achieved by tation. However, the varying circumstances of
smallholder cash cropping, service industry and different people and places make generalization
domestic based manufacturing industries. Expe- about fuelwood stress problematic and the prob-
rience of refugee schemes in Tanzania and Sudan lems can rarely be summarized. Fuelwood use
shows that, even in the case of refugees, it is pos- and scarcity reect complex and variable interac-
sible to achieve sustainable energy development tions between local production systems and the
within a project (DANIDA, 1999). environmental resource on which they are based.
The signicance and origins of fuelwood prob-
lems vary as much as do local environments and
societies. Given this, a number of criteria must
The fuelwood problem in Africa be satised before a sustainable energy policy
can reect the heterogeneous nature of fuelwood
Fuelwood is the issue at the centre of energy supply and end use:-
planning in Africa. That wood energy cannot be
provided by planting fuelwood trees is, at last, Biomass resources in different areas must be
being recognized. Agroforestry, in which trees are measured and this will give an indication of
a multi-purpose resource in a land use system, the maximum available as potential fuel. The
seems to provide an opportunity for addressing areas taken will equate to agroclimatic zones,
the problem. However, women who are usually which are a broad indication of land produc-
the wood gatherers and farmers of Africa, need tivity.
to be key participants in any solution. More The characteristic rural economy, including
importantly, energy systems in urban areas need population densities, forms of settlement and
to be addressed. Many of them still rely heav- dominant types of agriculture must be identi-
ily on charcoal. By encouraging a change from ed.This will indicate the level of demand for
charcoal to fuels which are both preferable and energy and the characteristic patterns of land
more easily obtained, the pressure on rural wood management.
resources could be reduced. As we have already The socio-economic condition of the area
remarked, this transition will ease the problem must be described because it determines
of wood depletion and rural environmental deg- access to the resource base for fuel by differ-
radation. Given Africas heavy dependence on ent sections of the local community.
wood for energy the call is now for a form of Factors which produce signicant exports of
forestry which will contribute to the process of woodfuel resources, such as commercial log-
sustainable development. Implicit in this is a need ging, and the inuence of urban woodfuel
for new forestry initiatives which contribute to and charcoal markets, must be incorporated.
a participatory, equitable, decentralized and self- Major forms of structural change which
sustaining process of rural development through- seriously affect the fuelwood situation in a
out Africa. locality must be analysed. They will include
Energy and Development Planning 67
land colonization, demographic change and of expanding wood energy supplies and this led to
urbanization, major developments such as the formulation of the Kenyan Woodfuel Devel-
roads and hydro-electric power schemes and opment Programme (KWDP). This programme
catastrophic drought or conict. was run from the Ministry of Energy but had a
level of contact with the District Forestry admin-
This is a complex list of criteria, but their con- istration. The KWDP was focused on the Kake-
sideration is essential if fuelwood problems and mega and Kisii districts of western Kenya. They
solutions are to relate to the condition of the are densely populated and undergoing rapid land
people experiencing fuelwood stress. consolidation, and were thought to be the best
areas in which to explore potential models of
agroforestry. Early surveys came to the striking
conclusion that deforestation does not necessar-
The African fuelwood ily occur in densely populated areas. Quite the
experience reverse there is a great deal of evidence to sug-
gest that farmers, given the necessary inputs, will
Most forestry plans in the past 25 years have increase the amount of woody biomass on their
treated the biomass problem simply as one of farms (Bradley, 1991; OKeefe and Raskin, 1985;
supply and demand. It was argued that people Hosier and OKeefe, 1983).
were extracting more biomass than the environ-
ment could sustainably produce and the solution
was self-evident if projected demand exceeded Towards solutions
supply, either plant more trees or devise poli-
cies to reduce demand. As a result, foresters tried Although there has been much work in recent
to increase tree supplies by various large scale years on local demand for trees and tree prod-
means like monocultural plantations, peri-urban ucts, it has largely been led from social science
woodlots, community woodlots, and increased and has not addressed the issues of local produc-
policing of forests and woodlands. Their object tion. What is urgently needed is a new form of
was to plant as many trees as quickly as possi- social forestry which provides wood near where
ble. Unfortunately, and all too often, decisions to people live. This requires integrating wood into
spend large sums of money planting trees have existing land use patterns in the farming system;
been taken without considering other options or it requires production design for a new agrofor-
the consequences of existing market and policy estry. It is important, even at the risk of repetition,
failures. Foresters have only themselves to blame to correct the three most popular misconceptions
for excluding options and courting failure (Van about the problem of declining wood resources.
Gelder and OKeefe, 1995). First, it is frequently assumed that deforestation
is caused by commercial logging and cutting for
fuelwood; this is simply not true agricultural
The Kenyan experience colonization is the major cause. Second, it is fre-
quently assumed that forests are a primary source
From 1980, there was an attempt, in Kenya, to of woodfuel for rural people; this is wrong in
address the broad energy and development prob- Africa over 90 per cent of biomass fuel comes
lem, particularly that of fuelwood, in a system- from agroforestry systems. Third, it is assumed
atic manner. Fuel switching was considered but, that rural people fell trees for domestic energy
because of the comparative expense of oil, it use this happens very infrequently because
seemed insufciently attractive. Energy conser- woodfuel is a residue from other uses of wood
vation was mooted but for fuelwood in particular in the rural economy. Quite simply, woodfuel is
there were substantial limits to investment in this what is left over. Any new agroforestry project
area. Finally, the analysts looked at the possibility must recognize that:
68 The Future of Energy Use
trees can be combined with crops and/or ani- Brunt, C., Luce, P. and Peters, R. (2004) The Clean
mals in many different systems of land use; Development Mechanism (CDM) an Inter-
a range of goods would be produced, not one national Perspective and Implications for the
single product; LAC Regions (Pembina Institute for Appropri-
ate Development). Available online at: www.
indigenous, multipurpose trees and shrubs are
pembina.org/pdf/publications/Review_of_
the core of intervention;
Current_Status_of_CDM_and_LAC_Impli-
such complex production systems are prob- cations_para_web.pdf.
ably better suited to fertile environments Carbon Market Update (2005) Development Carbon
rather than to fragile conditions; Fund. Issue 1, UNEP, IETA. Available online
and use systems will actively reect sociocul- at: www.ieta.org/ieta/www/pages/getle.
tural values. php?docID=901.
Christensen, C. M. (1997) The Innovators Dilemma,
The integration of a project which takes these Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press
things into account is a step-by-step process Christensen, C. M. and Raynor, M. E. (2003) The
which allows the people themselves to control Innovators Solution, Cambridge, MA: Harvard
Business School Press
it, to follow its progress and to adapt the pro-
COM (2000) European Commission, Green Paper
gramme in a gradual way without deviating from COM 769 nal, Towards a European strategy for
its objectives. the security of energy supply. Available online at:
At the turn of the century, implementing http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy_transport/
this kind of social forestry has largely fallen to doc-principal/pubnal_en. pdf.
policy advocacy by development non-govern- COM (2002) Communication from the Commis-
mental organizations with implementation by sion to the Council and the European Parliament,
local populations.There is a very uneven national Final report on the Green Paper Towards a Euro-
policy framework towards agroforestry and more pean strategy for the security of energy supply,
broadly towards biomass energy. While some 321 nal. Available online at: http://europa.
training exists in university forestry departments, eu.int/comm/energy_transport/livrevert/
progress has been piece-meal and very patchy nal/report_en.pdf.
CSD (2002) Ninth session, Agenda Item 4. Decision.
indeed.Yet again, the conclusion seems to be that Energy for Sustainable Development, Section
we know enough, but the political will to address 6.22, New Yor: United Nations
the problem of biomass energy for poor people DANIDA (1999) Available online at: www.um.dk/
is not in place. en/menu/DevelopmentPolicy/Evalua-
tions/Publications/ReportsByYear/1999/
DanEval09Synthesis.htm.
Dunn, S. (2000) Micropower: The Next Electrical
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4
This chapter looks at the issues of end use Price volatility: energy prices rose steeply in
efciency in the developed world.1 End use ef- 2008 and are likely to remain high, driven
ciency for the developing world is dealt with in by supply constraints and increasing global
Chapter 3. demand. Rising prices against a background
of rising demand for increasingly scarce
resources could threaten global economic sta-
bility, or even trigger recession.
Introduction
But there are other equally important reasons
Efciency determines the quantity of useful for improving end use efciency. Conventional
energy services that can be obtained from a given or fossil fuels are highly polluting. Reducing
energy resource. Both the transformation proc- use has both environmental and health benets.
ess of a primary resource such as natural gas Those on xed incomes such as the elderly are
into electricity (covered in Chapter 5) and the vulnerable to fuel poverty and higher efciencies
conversion of an energy source for example, can reduce the amount spent on fuel. Improving
electricity into a useful service or end use have efciency is both a technological and social chal-
associated losses. Less than 10 per cent of the lenge. Policy makers are now focusing on ways in
power supplied to an incandescent light bulb is which different policy instruments can inuence
converted into useful light. The rest is lost as heat technological developments and behaviour with
and in parts of the spectrum that are not visible respect to energy efciency.This chapter explores
to the human eye. Improving end use efciency developments in the transport sector, the built
is important for a number of reasons: environment and in goods, appliances and elec-
trical motor systems.
Climate goals: the EU estimates that at least 20
per cent of energy is wasted due to inefcien-
cies (EU, 2006). Using resources efciently
can reduce greenhouse emissions, hence Efciency
slowing climate change and minimizing the
risk of adverse climatic shifts. Generally speaking, efciency is the ratio of total
Energy security: many OECD countries are energy output to total energy input and is usu-
increasingly reliant on imported supplies. ally expressed as a percentage. In the energy sys-
Geopolitical uncertainties could threaten sup- tem there are broadly two areas where efciency
ply lines. Improved efciency would reduce is important. The rst is the transformation of a
the demand for imported fuels. primary energy resource into a secondary energy
72 The Future of Energy Use
resource or energy carriers, such as coal into ics.The laws of thermodynamics arose from early
electricity. The second is the transformation of experiments that linked heat and mechanical
secondary energy sources into energy services. work and are shown in Box 4.1.
Figure 4.1 gives an overview of the energy sys- The laws of thermodynamics set the limita-
tem. tions of the heat engine.The heat engine is widely
The left hand side of Figure 4.1 lists energy used in transformation processes, for example, in
resources that through a transformation proc- thermal power stations, the internal combustion
ess can eventually be realized as energy services. engine (ICE) and jet engines. In fact any engine
The transformation process for a non-renewable that uses heat to produce mechanical work is
resource, such as coal into electricity, is very dif- a heat engine. The heat engine works by using
ferent to that of wind or photovoltaics. Different temperature difference to produce mechanical
processes are governed by different laws or rules. work (Figure 4.2).
The efciency of the transformation process is Energy stored, for example, in steam, is then
the rst step in determining the efciency of a passed through a turbine to produce mechanical
particular transformation/energy service pathway. work. If the turbine is connected to an electrical
The majority of power is produced by processes generator then electrical power will be produced.
that are governed by the laws of thermodynam- The efciency of the heat engine is:
Efciency of End Use 73
Within the EU, and typically within OECD Building form and energy management strategies
countries, about 40 per cent of overall energy are not the only determinants of efciency. The
demand is used in buildings (EU, 2006). Demand materials used and the construction standards are
is likely to grow, fuelled by the construction also important. The following sections will look
boom in rapidly industrializing nations such at how building efciency is specied and how
as India and China (WBCSD, 2007). Energy is differing construction techniques can increase
used in the built environment to provide heat- the thermal efciency of a building.
ing and cooling, lighting and to power a range of
equipment and appliances. There are two broad
approaches to improving the efciency of the Material efciency
built environment:
The thermal efciency of materials is known
Improve the thermal efciency of buildings as the U-value. The U-value is the measure of
to reduce demand for heating or cooling heat loss through a material and represents the
services. amount of heat lost in watts per square metre of
Improve the end use efciency of the equip- material (for example, a wall, roof, glazing and so
ment and appliances that are used within on) when the temperature is one degree lower
buildings. outside. Simply put, the more thermally efcient
the material used, the lower the U-value and
The next section deals with the thermal ef- subsequent heat loss. For example, single glazed
ciency of buildings. Equipment and appliances windows have a typical U-value of 5.6 while
are dealt with later in this chapter. double glazed windows have a typical U-value
of 2.8.Table 4.1 lists typical U-values of materials
used in building construction.
Thermal efciency of buildings The methods for determining U-values of
building elements are based on standards that
Buildings use 40 per cent of energy output within
were developed in the European Committee
the EU (EU Commission, 2005, p45). Improving
for Standardisation (CEN) and the International
the thermal efciency of buildings can reduce
Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) and pub-
the amount of energy used either for heating in
lished as British Standards. New materials and
cooler climates or cooling in warmer climates.
building design make the determination of U-
The thermal efciency of a building is a function
values complex and procedures are regularly
of a number of factors such as:
updated to ensure compliance with regulations
(Anderson, 2006).
siting and organizing the building congura-
tion and massing to reduce loads;
reducing cooling loads by eliminating unde- Thermal efciency
sirable solar heat gain;
reducing heating loads by using desirable solar The efciency standard or energy rating of a
heat gain; building is inuenced by climatic factors and
using natural light as a substitute for (or com- existing regulations at the national level. Com-
plement to) electrical lighting; parison between different nations is problematic.
using natural ventilation whenever possible; Within the EU, for example, there is a range of
using more efcient heating and cooling
methods for determining the energy rating of
equipment to satisfy reduced loads;
a building (Mguez et al, 2006). In the UK the
using computerized building control systems.
method for rating a building is known as the
Source: Federal Energy Management Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP). In force
Programme, 2001 since 1995, SAP rates the energy efciency of
76 The Future of Energy Use
buildings on a scale of 0120 based on thermal Kyoto commitment, the Energy Performance
performance, heating system and energy prices, of Buildings Directive (EPBD), which came
as shown in Box 4.2. This lack of standardization into force in 2003, is designed to standardize the
has made international comparisons difcult.The method for assessing the energy performance of
average SAP for domestic dwellings in England is buildings (OJ, 2003). It also sets minimum stand-
about 48 points (DEFRA, 2007b).This compares ards for new buildings, requires the production
to around 90 points for a well-insulated dwell- of Energy Performance Certicates and inspec-
ing in Scandinavia. Lack of standardization can tion regimes for heating and cooling systems.
act as a barrier to the transfer of good practice The EU estimates that the savings potential in
between EU member states. As part of the EU the building sector is around 28 per cent, which
in turn can reduce the total EU nal energy use that is whether or not to consider the perform-
by around 11 per cent.The deadline for adoption ance of the building itself, or the whole lifecycle
of the directive was 2006, with measures such as (including the energy used in construction and
Energy Performance Certicates expected to be embodied within the construction materials) is
in place across the EU by 2008 (EU Commis- also problematic. The majority of studies have
sion, undated-b). been focused on the building during its opera-
tional phase or lifetime, as this could undermine
reduction claims during operation.
Improving building thermal In general, a zero emissions/energy build-
ing is one that has greatly reduced energy needs
efciency through efciency measures and the energy
needs it does have are met through renew-
Given the high energy use of buildings and the able resources. There are two ways of dening
fact that the majority of that use is either for a ZEB:(i) the building should meet its energy
heating or cooling, it is not surprising that there needs from embedded capacity in the building or
is considerable worldwide interest in improving from capacity within its boundary (also known as
the thermal performance of buildings. Improve- an Off-Grid ZEB (OGZEB)); (ii) the building is
ments in the construction standards of buildings connected to external sources. Table 4.2 sets out
are enabled through regulations, standards or the options for both of these denitions.
codes that mandate minimum energy efciency
standards. These can be set at the national level,
at the level of a group of countries, for exam-
ple, in the EU through Directives, or at the level
Low energy buildings
of a sub-national region inside a federal country,
The starting point for a ZEB is to ensure that
for example, at the state level in the US. Almost
the building energy requirements are as low as
all OECD countries in Europe and about half
possible through low energy building technolo-
of the remaining OECD countries have manda-
gies and techniques such as high insulation stand-
tory efciency standards (WEC, 2008). A strong
ards, daylighting, high efciency HVAC (heating,
trend in the building sector is a move towards
ventilation and air conditioning), natural ventila-
zero energy buildings (ZEBs). These are based
tion and evaporative cooling. The design of low
on two principles. First the thermal efciency of
energy buildings maximizes the use of such tech-
the building itself must be very high. Second the
nologies and techniques and eliminates aspects
energy requirements of the building should be
of construction that can lower efciency, such
met from renewable or non-polluting resources.
as thermal bridges. Thermal bridges can be cre-
The following section looks at the principles
ated when materials that have poor insulation
underpinning ZEBs.
characteristics come into contact, allowing heat
to ow through the path created. The Passive
House, shown in Figure 4.4, illustrates how these
Zero energy buildings (ZEBs) techniques and technologies can be incorporated
into the building design and can signicantly
ZEB is a general term used to describe a building reduce demand for space heating, as shown in
that has a net energy consumption of zero over a Figure 4.5.
specied period of time, for example, a year.There A Passive House is a building in which a
is no agreed denition of what is meant by a zero comfortable interior climate can be maintained
emission or zero energy building. A ZEB can be without active heating and cooling systems. The
measured in a number of ways relating to either concept was developed by Professor Bo Adamson
energy, emissions or cost. Setting the boundaries, and Dr Wolfgang Feist, who founded the Passive
78 The Future of Energy Use
300
Super-insuletion
U < 0, 15 W/(m2K) Household Electricity
250
Supply Ventilation Electricity
exhauat Hot Water
air
Energy Rating kWh/(m2a)
air
200 Heating
3-pane
low-e- 150
glazing Supply exhauat fresh
air air air
100
air to air 0
heat Current WSchVD SBN 1980 WSchVD Low Energy Passive
exchanger Average 1994 1995 House House
Figure 4.4 Passive House concept Source: Passive House Institute, undated-a
A Passive House is a building, for The heating requirement for a Passive House
which thermal comfort (ISO 7730) is less than 15kWh/(m2a) (4755Btu/ft2/yr) and
can be achieved solely by post heating overall combined primary energy consumption
or post cooling of the fresh air mass, for heat, hot water and household electricity
which is required to full sufcient should not exceed 120kWh/(m2a) (38039Btu/
indoor air quality conditions (DIN ft2/yr).Table 4.3 lists some of the basic features of
1946) without a need for recircu- Passive House construction.
lated air. (Passive House Institute, Although building design has a signicant
2006-b) impact on thermal efciency, other factors such
Efciency of End Use 79
Compact form and good All components of the exterior shell of the house are insulated to achieve a
insulation U-factor that does not exceed 0.15W/(m2K) (0.026Btu/h/ft2/F)
Southern orientation and shade Passive use of solar energy is a signicant factor in passive house design
considerations
Energy-efcient window glazing Windows (glazing and frames, combined) should have U-factors not exceeding
and frames 0.80W/(m2K) (0.14Btu/h/ft2/F), with solar heat-gain coefcients around 50%
Building envelope air-tightness Air leakage through unsealed joints must be less than 0.6 times the house volume
per hour
Passive preheating of fresh air Fresh air may be brought into the house through underground ducts that exchange
heat with the soil. This preheats fresh air to a temperature above 5C (41F), even
on cold winter days
Highly efcient heat recovery Most of the perceptible heat in the exhaust air is transferred to the incoming fresh
from exhaust air air (heat recovery rate over 80%)
using an air-to-air heat exchanger
Hot water supply using Solar collectors or heat pumps provide energy for hot water
regenerative energy sources
Energy-saving household Low energy refrigerators, stoves, freezers, lamps, washers, dryers, etc. are
appliances indispensable in a passive house
Source: Passive House Institute, undated-a
as building orientation can play an important (including on the building) is equal to that
role in both heating and cooling by using natu- used by the building. This denition applies,
ral sources. For example, orientation can maxi- in general, to zero energy buildings in North
mize solar gain and reduce heating requirements. America.
Shading can attenuate heat gain in warmer cli- 2 Net zero source energy: in this ZEB the amount
mates and warm seasons through the use of shut- of renewable energy produced is equal to the
ters, screens or shade trees that will reduce the amount of energy it uses over a year when
need for additional cooling. Massing in the build- accounted for at the source. Source energy
ing, for example concrete walls and oors can be refers to the primary energy used to gen-
used as heat stores to retain heat during the warm erate and deliver energy to the site. This
periods of the day that can be released during denition covers sites that typically need to
cooler evening periods. import energy at certain times but can also
export energy. Care is needed in calculating
the buildings total source energy as off-site
Dening a zero energy building generators and transmission systems are inef-
cient. These must be accounted for.
As stated earlier there is no single agreed de- 3 Net zero energy costs: in this ZEB the amount
nition for a ZEB. Torcellini et al (2006) identify of money paid to the owner of the building
four commonly used denitions that take into for energy exported to a utility is equal to the
consideration differences between uses of the amount paid for imported energy.
term in North America and Europe. 4 Net zero energy emissions: this is also known
as zero carbon or zero emissions, terms
1 Net zero site energy: in this ZEB the amount typically used outside North America, and
of renewable energy produced on the site in this denition a ZEB produces as much
80 The Future of Energy Use
emission-free renewable energy on site as its is manufactured and accounts for some 6 per
uses from emissions producing sources. cent of global industrial energy use. Many of the
materials used in buildings such as steel, glass and
The different denitions of a ZEB can inuence bricks require substantial amounts of energy to
the design of buildings. For example, a housing produce (IEA, 2007a). The building process also
development with BIPV (building integrated carries an energy cost.
photovoltaics) will produce electricity during the Conceptually a ZEB implies that some sort
day, but not at night when the demand for elec- of energy technology will be needed to meet
tricity is likely to be high. However, for ofce its energy requirements. To avoid pollution and
buildings demand is likely to be high during the greenhouse gas production requires renew-
day and low during the night. Different buildings able technologies. This is a different conceptual
have different energy use proles and the design approach, as typically the energy density and reli-
and purpose of the building will inuence which ability of renewable resources is much lower than
supply-side strategies and consequently which conventional fossil fuels, meaning efciencies
ZEB denition is the most appropriate. Table 4.4 need to be as high as possible to minimize the
lists some of advantages and disadvantages of the scale of renewable deployment.
various approaches to ZEBs.
One further issue that is not addressed within
these denitions is embedded or embodied
energy. The majority of buildings will consist of Implications of ZEBS
materials that require energy for their manufac-
ture. For example, concrete is a common build- If all buildings reached the efciency levels of a
ing material. Cement, a component of concrete ZEB this would reduce energy use, theoretically,
in the OECD countries by 40 per cent. As the Table 4.5 Projected market penetration of new
turnover of building stock is slow, the impact of build and refurbished dwellings
ZEBs will not be felt for some time. But, as noted
earlier, the starting point for a ZEB is ensuring Country New build Refurbishment
that the thermal efciency of buildings is as high (per cent) (per cent)
as possible. This is more easily achieved for new
build than for refurbishment. For new build, Austria 20 15
standards for thermal efciency can be mandated. Belgium 20 15
For existing stock, this will require some form of Denmark 20 15
intervention, for example, nancial support for a Finland 20 15
Germany 50 30
refurbishment programme. Research conducted
Ireland 20 15
in Europe has identied that there is consider-
Netherlands 20 15
able potential for Passive House standards to con-
Norway 20 15
tribute to climate, security and energy poverty
UK 20 15
reduction goals (PEP, 2006). The drive behind
the Passive House concept is to reduce heating Source: Adapted from PEP, 2006
300
per year reduction below 1990 levels and this
200
existing average
typical new
programme realizes a gure of 0.46 after the rst
Passive house 2 years, which exceeds the Kyoto target for that
100
sector (PEP, 2006).
Although the participants in the study and
0
the Commission are committed to Passive House
principles for new build and refurbished dwell-
a
um
nd
K
wa
an
nd
ar
tri
an
U
la
gi
s
rla
nl
or
Ire
Au
en
Fi
er
N
he
G
D
et
N
Country
come. The most frequently encountered barriers
Source: PEP, 2006, p12 in partner countries were: limited know-how;
limited contractor skills; and limited acceptance
Figure 4.6 Yearly primary space heating energy of passive houses in the market. Elswiijk and Kaan
uses per dwelling, per existing, typical new and (2008) identify a number of issues such as trans-
passive house lating the Passive House principles into different
82 The Future of Energy Use
Table 4.6 Considered energy sources for space heating in the study countries
Netherlands
Energy sources for
Denmark
Germany
Belgium
Norway
Finland
Austria
Ireland
space heating
UK
Electricity x x x x x
Gas x x x x x x
Oil x x x x x
Wood pellets x x
District heating x x x x x
Renewables x
Coal x x
Source: Adapted from PEP, 2006, p10
building traditions and into acceptable building roletti, 2006). The internet-based resources listed
codes. Supply-side issues were also problematic, in Box 4.3 provide further detail on ZEB and
with a lack of high efciency components such Passive House principles.
as glazing. Overcoming these barriers requires
effort, through information and awareness raising,
to inuence the market so that the new designs
and refurbishment to higher thermal standards
become embedded as the norm.
There are cost implications for Passive House Box 4.3 Internet resources
features, which are typically higher than those
EcoSmart Show Village:
of a standard, or low energy house, but this dif-
www.barratt-investor-relations.co.uk/
ference is strongly related to energy prices. The
media/releases/Content.aspx?id=1318
higher the price of energy the more attractive Greenspace Research:
the Passive House concept becomes (Audenaerta www.greenspaceresearch.com/
et al, 2007).The large increase in 2008 of the cost Leonardo-energy:
of fossil fuel is likely to shift the balance towards www.leonardo-energy.org/drupal/
the development of more efcient buildings as 3dforum
well as increase their attractiveness to the pub- EON.UK:
lic. Recently both the UK and Germany have www.eon-uk.com/about/2016house.aspx
announced programmes that include support for The Green Home Guide:
refurbishing existing stock to Passive House stand- www.greenhomeguide.org
Low Carbon Cities:
ards. The interest in zero energy developments is
www.lowcarboncities.co.uk
not limited to individual buildings. A number of
Passive House Platform:
proposals seek to develop new cities based on the www.passiefhuisplatform.be/multime-
principles of very thermally efcienct buildings dia/001/
powered by renewable technologies. Masdar City Passive House:
in Abu Dhabi and Dongtan Eco-City in China www.passivhaustagung.de/Kran/First_
are examples of cities that are being planned along Passive_House_Kranichstein_en.html
ZEB principles (BBC, 2008a; Langellier and Ped-
Efciency of End Use 83
Cooking
The EU is committed to the Kyoto Proto-
1.3 col 8 per cent target but has unilaterally set tar-
3%
gets to cut its carbon emissions by 20 per cent
by 2020 compared with a 1990 benchmark and
has offered to deepen this to 30 per cent if other
Water major emitters follow suit (COM, 2007). These
11.4
24% Space heating commitments do not prevent individual states
29.2
60% using a variety of domestic measures to comply
with national standards that exceed those of the
EU, providing these are implemented in ways that
do not conict with EU policy. In the UK the
Source: ACE, 2005 Climate Change Bill, expected to become law in
2008, sets a target reduction of 29 per cent below
Figure 4.7 Domestic nal energy by end use 1990 levels by 2020 and a 60 per cent reduction
(mtoe), 2003 by 2050 (UK Government, undated-a).
Studies do show that considerable improve-
ments in the thermal efciency of existing build-
ings are achievable through passive measures
Energy Performance Certicates (EPCs) in 2007 such as increased insulation levels (cavity and
for domestic dwellings that are either sold or let solid walls and lofts), high efciency glazing, air
(UK Government, undated). tightness and ventilation (Boardman et al, 2005;
More recently the UK government has set ESD, 2004; Johnston et al, 2005). It is unlikely
mandatory standards for new buildings and that passive measures alone will achieve the UK
requires that all new build from 2016 will be government target of a 60 per cent reduction in
zero carbon (UK Government, 2007). As part emissions by 2050, but, according to ESD, these
of this drive the government has introduced a measures along with active generation and heat
new set of building codes known as the Code capture technologies can reach that level for the
for Sustainable Homes (UK Government, 2008). UK housing sector. The recently announced UK
The code is a national standard that denes the Renewable Energy Strategy, which is undergo-
sustainability of a home based on energy require- ing consultation at the time of writing, contains
ments and on criteria such as waste, ecology, a range of measures related to renewable energy
water and materials. Houses are grouped into 6 technologies and on improving the efciency of
star categories, with each category representing a existing housing stock (UK Government, 2008).
percentage improvement on homes that are built The ndings of the consultation are expected in
to Part L of the Building Regulations in 2006. 2009.
For example a 3-star rating is 25 per cent better However, to date much of the UK Govern-
and this is expected to be achieved for all new ments policy towards housing has been very
build by 2009. A 5-star rating represents a 100 per patchy and has had little impact on improving
cent improvement. Carbon zero homes are given very much of the housing stock. Boardman, in
a 6-star rating. The government has introduced a study conducted into reducing emissions from
scal incentives to encourage the 6-star rating by UK housing by 80 per cent by 2050, points out
abolishing stamp duty (a tax paid when houses that UK housing policy is highly fragmented
are sold) on 6-star rated zero carbon homes up and sets out a number of areas where action is
to a value to 500,000 and a 15,000 reduction needed to raise the thermal efciency of UK
on stamp duty for houses over 500,000. The housing from its current average SAP rating of
code only applies to new build and inuencing 48 to an average of 80 by 2050. These include
Efciency of End Use 85
an education and awareness programme that will designed to minimize energy use through passive
demonstrate the benets of moving up the EPC techniques and capture renewable resources are
bands, subsidized loans, stamp duty rebates and not new. For example the Solar Ofce in Dox-
targeted investment to encourage the majority of ford Park, Tyne and Wear, UK incorporates many
householders to move up the EPC ratings, car- passive design features. The building has been
bon targets for local authorities related to their designed to have a considerably lower energy
housing stock and nancial incentives for inno- requirement than a typical air conditioned build-
vation to encourage a learning process around ing (85kWh/m2/year, while a conventional air
new skills, techniques and products, which com- conditioned ofce uses 200400kWh/m2/year).
bine to exceed minimum standards (Boardman, The energy strategy for the building is based on
2007, p47). minimizing heat losses, using building mass to
control temperatures, utilizing natural ventilation
and saving energy consumption by maximizing
natural daylighting.The building design has active
Nondomestic buildings features and produces energy from the integrated
PV in the faades (Lloyds Jones et al, 1989).
This refers to all buildings, either public or pri-
It is clear that policy is driving towards the
vate, that are used for non-domestic purposes.
ZEB concept, but there is a lack of clarity on
This is a very mixed group, ranging from ofce
which form of ZEB will be pursued. The Code
buildings, factories, hospitals, schools, commer-
for Sustainable Homes at present denes a ZEB
cial, retail and leisure. As in the domestic sector
as one that produces all of its energy requirements
non-domestic buildings are subject to standards
on site. The UK Green Building Council argues
that regulate their efciency, but there is a grow-
that in many cases this may not be achievable
ing recognition that Passive House principles are
and argues that zero carbon should be allowed
also relevant to this sector in a drive to produce
to use off-site renewable energy, but only where
zero energy or zero emission buildings. Research
every effort has been made to rst install on-site
undertaken by the World Business Council for
renewables (UK Green Building Council, 2008).
Sustainable Development (WBCSD) into the
This issue has yet to be resolved.
perception of energy efciency issues in buildings
identied three key barriers to the implementa-
tion of higher efciency measures:-
Appliances and lighting
lack of information about building energy use
and costs; Figure 4.8 shows that electricity use for lighting
lack of leadership from professionals and busi- and appliances throughout the OECD area has
ness people in the industry; risen quickly.This is projected to continue to rise
lack of know-how and experience as too few if additional measures are not taken to improve
professionals have been involved in sustain- end use efciency. The OECD estimates that
able building work (WBCSD, 2007). about one-third of overall electricity production
is used in the domestic sector with overall growth
Although lack of awareness is a continuing issue, predicted to rise by 25 per cent by 2020 in the
there are many examples of buildings that have OECD.Without intervention to encourage man-
moved beyond that which is typically required by ufacturers to produce more efcient lights and
building regulations. For example, the Council appliances and for consumers to purchase them,
House 2 building in Melbourne Australia, opened the IEA (International Energy Agency) predicts
in 2006, has an energy demand of around 15 per a growth of about 30 per cent in domestic elec-
cent that of typical existing buildings (City of tricity demand between 2008 and 2030 in the
Melbourne, undated). Buildings that have been OECD (IEA, 2003). One of the main drivers
86 The Future of Energy Use
In Japan the Top Runner standard which 92/75/EEC Energy labelling Overarching, with
requires all products to reach the same of domestic several daughter
specication as the most efcient in the appliances directives, specic
market within a set timeframe is expected to each appliance
to bring energy savings of 63 per cent for group. Being
air-conditioning systems and 83 per cent redrafted.
for computers by 2010. By 2030, Japan is 2002/91/EC Energy Basis for Energy
aiming for an increase in energy efciency Performance of Performance
of 30 per cent. Buildings (EPBD) Certicates; cost-
Rising energy prices in the UK are inu- effective, realizable
encing consumer behaviour. While house- saving potential of
hold expenditure rose by just 1.4 per cent 22% from existing
in 2005, there was an 11 per cent rise in buildings by 2010.
consumer purchases of energy efcient 2005/32/EC Eco-design Setting minimum
appliances to 1.6 billion. requirements environmental
In the US more than 1400 US manu- for energy-using performance criteria
facturers now use the high-efciency products (EuP) for products.
Energy Star logo across 32,000 product
2006/32/EC Energy end use Requires Energy
models. In 2005 alone, the use of Energy
efciency and Efciency Action
Star products in the US prevented the
energy services Plans from individual
release of GHG emissions equivalent to
member states
23 million cars and saved US$12 billion in
energy costs. The Energy Star programme by June 2007,
has run since 1992. Standards are set identifying how
either by the Environmental Protection to achieve a 9%
Agency or Department of Energy. Manu- reduction in delivered
facturers meeting those standards can use energy 20082016,
the Energy Star logo. in relation to
The Energy Star label has been baseline, i.e. 1% pa.
adopted for ofce equipment in European Covers metering and
countries and is expected to help reduce billing by utilities.
consumption by about 10TWh/yr by 2015,
Source: Adapted from Boardman, 2007, p19
equivalent to just over 2 per cent of the
UKs electricity consumption in 2005.
Source: The Climate Group, 2007 tive, it does extend the framework directive on
energy-using products (EuP).
Priority Action 1 of the plan is focused on
labelling and minimum performance standards.
Minimum performance requirements are planned
of buildings and lighting and appliances. The EU for 14 priority product groups by the end of
has set legally binding targets of 20 per cent less 2008 and the Framework Directive 92/75/EC
CO2 emissions and 20 per cent renewable energy on labelling will be reinforced to enhance its
use by 2020 and a non-legally binding target of effectiveness. Household appliances that will be
a 20 per cent increase in energy efciency by impacted by minimum performance require-
2020. Although the Action Plan is not a direc- ments are shown in Table 4.8.
88 The Future of Energy Use
Table 4.8 Residential product policy studies for those that have invested strong efforts in
the Energy-using Products Directive developing their plans;
those that submitted plans that have already
Product Measures adopted been adopted in other contexts at national
by Commission level;
after: those that provided only short or draft plans
(EEW, 2007).
Battery chargers, power Study complete
supplies Although the plans contain a broad array of meas-
Personal computers and July 2008 ures, only Spain and Denmark propose meeting
monitors (ICT)
the 9 per cent reduction by the 2016 timeframe
Televisions (CE) Study complete
and it is too early at this point to judge how
Standby and off-mode losses Study complete
effective this measure will be. But the study does
Domestic refrigeration (freezers, November 2008
show that new member states, such as the Baltic
fridges, etc.)
Washing machines, November 2008 States, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland and the Czech
dishwashers Republic still require basic infrastructure to be
Boilers January 2009 upgraded before effective implementation can
Water heaters January 2009 begin. Other states like Finland, the UK and
Room air conditioning February 2009 Sweden, for example have a longer tradition of
Domestic lighting March 2009 implementing energy efciency improvements.
Simple converter boxes for Date unknown To make further inroads into improving end
digital TV use efciency may require further intervention at
Solid fuel small combustion Date unknown the EU level or at the national level. For example,
installations (in particular for lighting systems account for around 6 per cent of
heating) UK household domestic electricity consumption.
Laundry dryers Date unknown Most lights in service are the inefcient incan-
Vacuum cleaners Date unknown descent bulb. There are striking differences in the
Complex set-top boxes (with Date unknown efciency of different lighting types as shown in
conditional access and/or Table 4.9. Note that efciency is expressed as
functions efcacy, which is the amount of light emitted per
that are always on) unit of power used.
Source: Adapted from Boardman, 2007, p20 Although LED (light emitting diode) lights
are still in development and currently mainly
used in specialist applications such as ashlights 0.530W. However, standby power is consumed
or for decorative purpose, their low energy con- 24 hours per day, and more and more new appli-
sumption and reliability could have a signicant ances have features that consume standby power.
impact on domestic energy use. Boardman reports Although consumption by individual appliances
that electricity consumption for lighting could be is small, the cumulative total is large and standby
reduced from 16, 000Gwh to 2000Gwh by 2030 power consumption is becoming comparable to
if a concerted effort were made. However, there refrigeration (IEA, 2003).
are considerable social, economic and technical
barriers to be addressed (Boardman, 2007).
Another area that the EU and the global
community are aware of is the growing use of
EU research and development
ICT and internet related devices in the house- for energy efciency
hold. The proliferation of electronics in the
home has increased power usage considerably, as The EU has made some funding available in the
shown in Table 4.10, and without intervention area of eco-innovation, although precise gures
is likely to continue to increase. More and more for expenditure in support of energy efciency
devices use standby power, where electricity is measures within the EU are not available. Ef-
consumed by end use electrical equipment when ciency applies very broadly and there are some
it is switched off or not performing its main programmes that will make a contribution to a
function. The most common users of standby wide range of efciency measures. The Seventh
power are televisions (TVs) and video equipment Framework Programme (FP7) for research and
with remote controls, electrical equipment with technological development, for example, pro-
external low voltage power supplies (e.g. cord- vides monies for select research projects during
less telephones, mobile phone chargers), ofce the period 20072013 according to different
equipment and devices with continuous dig- thematic areas, including 2.3 billion euro for
ital displays (e.g. microwave ovens).The actual energy.To what extent this will support efciency
power-draw in standby mode is small, typically research is dependent on the projects supported.
Table 4.10 Estimation of the total energy consumption for various information and telecommunication tech-
nologies in European households
modern day life. As more and more functions are with the manufacture and disposal of ICT equip-
built into these devices, their efciency becomes ment as it contains toxic and hazardous substances
more important. Portable devices rely on bat- (Yi andThomas, 2007). But broadly the benets
tery power and although battery technology that ICT brings can increasingly outweigh the
is improving, ensuring a useful service length disadvantages. ICT accounts for around 2 per
between charges requires efcient power man- cent of global energy use and around 2 per cent
agement and components. Considerable effort of global carbon emissions. However, the innova-
is being made by large manufacturers such as tions in the sector can help to promote energy
Intel and Texas Instruments to make electronic savings in other areas, such as the following:
devices more efcient. For example, Intel has set
out a research programme that looks at improved The power grid: With greater decentralization
power management and component design to of grids and the use of renewable energy
reduce power use (Chary et al, 2004). Other sources and micro-generation, ICT can play
manufacturers are seeking to improve efciency a major role not only in reducing losses and
as well as look at other techniques. Texas Instru- increasing efciency but also in managing
ments are developing a range of devices that do and controlling the distributed power grid to
not rely on being connected to a power source ensure stability and security.
but generate power from their environment, for Energy smart homes and buildings: Buildings
example a sensor that monitors a bridge but uses account for some 40 per cent of energy use
the vibration of trafc to generate power (BBC, in the EU. ICT-based energy management
2008b). Devices such as weather stations pow- systems for both new and old buildings will
ered either from photovoltaic systems or wind help to reduce energy use. Smart metering
turbines and a battery are becoming increasingly and advanced visualization that continuously
common. A drive to more efcient systems is monitors building performance can optimize
likely to see more and more autonomous systems efciency. Heightened awareness of energy
in everyday use. consumption can stimulate behavioural
ICT (Information and Communications changes at both the household and enterprise
Technology) provides the opportunity to improve level. Studies in Finland have noted gains of
energy efciency, but it is also an energy user. 7 per cent in households that have systems
Although ICT is an established technology and providing consumers real-time feedback on
used extensively, the micro- and nano-electronics their consumption. It is believed that energy
industry is highly innovative. Not only has proc- savings in companies could be as high as 10
essor power continued to increase in line with per cent.
Moores law (that predicts that this will double Indoor and outdoor lighting: About one fth
every two years), the power requirements of a chip of the worlds electricity consumption is for
of a given capacity have halved every 18 months. lighting. High efciency LED technology
This has been achieved through great miniaturi- could save 30 per cent of todays consump-
zation and innovative architecture. Future devel- tion by 2015 and up to 50 per cent by 2025.
opments will use techniques that turn off part of Adding sensing and actuation capabilities to
the processor when it is not being used, reducing energy-efcient bulbs, so that they automati-
energy needs further. cally adjust to the environment, can lead to
In Europe, information technologies have a further improvements (Communication from
positive environmental impact, for example, the the Commission, 2008).
dematerialization of transport through a switch
from air travel to videoconferencing and the digi-
talization of information, for example, through
the switch from catalogues to websites. There are,
however, adverse environmental effects associated
92 The Future of Energy Use
Major barriers:
1 pay-back time is too long due to low elec- Transport
tricity prices;
Todays transport sector, covering systems for
2 reluctance to change a working process;
road, rail, air and water, is predominantly based on
3 split budgets;
the combustion of fossil fuels, making it one of
Medium barriers:
the largest sources of both urban and regional air
4 not all parties in the supply chain are moti-
pollution and greenhouse gases. It is the cause of
vated;
other environmental and social ill effects, ranging
5 lack of correct denitions of motor sys-
from loss of land and open space to noise-related
tem efciency;
nuisance, injuries and deaths arising from acci-
6 oversizing due to lack of knowledge of
mechanical characteristics of load; dents. But the movement of goods and people
7 lack of management time; is crucial for social and economic development
Moderate barriers: by enabling trade and providing opportunities for
8 shortage of capital; employment, education and leisure. Shifting the
9 other functional specications conict transport sector to a more sustainable basis is an
with energy efciency. urgent challenge. According to the International
Transport Forum (ITF) transport emissions are
With rising electricity prices the major obstacle, increasing and this is set to continue well into
pay-back time, may start to decline in importance. the future. For example, globally, aviation is set to
The authors of the study do suggest a number of double in less than 20 years as is container trafc
critical success factors: by sea and car ownership and use. And this is in
stark contrast to the aspirations of many govern-
1 A legal framework that favours high efciency ments to make signicant cuts in greenhouse gas
motor systems: Standards are typically volun- emissions (ITF, 2007).
In the transport sector there are three broad
tary. Although the EU supports the concept
areas of action that can both reduce dependence
of efcient motors through the Motor Chal-
on fossil fuels and improve end use efciency:
lenge Programme, it has yet to propose EU-
wide legislation.2
1 Fuels: the high dependence of transport on
2 Adequate support: More resources generally
fossil fuels is driving the use of alternatives
means better outcomes.
such as biofuels. Other changes that are likely
3 High quality information, in relevant terms:
to occur in the longer term are a move to the
Ensuring that the right message about the
use of hydrogen as a new energy carrier.
benets is effectively communicated.
2 Technology: improving the efciency of exist-
4 Streamlining with other programmes: Ensuring
ing technologies and introducing new tech-
that within the EU a clear and concise mes-
nologies such as fuel cell, electric and hybrid
sage is promoted.
systems.
5 Measuring results and giving feedback: Clear
3 Behavioural: this is a broad area covering
results presented in a clear way.
urban planning, alternative work scheduling,
6 Involvement and coordination between differ-
improvements in public transport, changes
ent interested parties: A fragmented approach
in driver behaviour and intelligent transport
within the supply and user chains militates
systems (Source: WEC, 2007).
against an effective approach.
7 Differentiating for each separate market: National
markets within the EU do vary and this Fuels
should be recognized.
Fuel substitution, that is, the use of non-fossil
sources that can either replace exiting supplies or
Efciency of End Use 95
be mixed with them is a mechanism for reducing mass inputs and the transformation processes.
GHG and improving energy security for those Other synthetic fuels such as GTL and CTL do
countries that rely on imported primary energy increase the diversity of the fuel supply base and,
supplies. Alternatives to fossil fuels include: particularly for GTL, are already available and
economically viable. On a lifecycle basis, GHG
emissions from GTL are comparable to conven-
Biofuels tional diesel, and for CTL without carbon cap-
ture and storage they are approximately double.
This category consists of fuels such as biodiesel CTL and GTL also contribute to technological
which is derived from vegetable oil extracted experience and the understanding of synthetic
from oilseed crops, such as rapeseed and sunower, fuels in general, beneting BTL development
and mixed with a small amount of methanol, and (Kavalov and Peteves, 2005; WEC, 2007; World
bioethanol which is obtained from the fermen- Coal Institute, undated). Synfuels are of particular
tation of sugar-bearing and starch crops such as interest to the aviation sector as they can be read-
sugar beet, wheat, maize and potato. Other forms ily used as a substitute for aviation kerosene. The
of ethanol production include cellulosic ethanol, best option from a climate perspective is BTL,
and can be produced from a wide variety of cel- however, there are implications for land use for
lulosic biomass feedstocks including agricultural the volumes of biomass needed for BTL synfuel
plant wastes (corn stover, cereal straws, sugarcane (Farmery, 2006).
bagasse), plant wastes from industrial processes Although alternative fuels do offer an oppor-
(sawdust, paper pulp) and energy crops grown tunity to diversify the supply chain, there are
specically for fuel production, such as switch- some issues that are problematic. In the US bio-
grass. These are sometimes referred to as rst fuel production has displaced existing agricul-
generation biofuels. tural production and it is claimed that this change
has increased net greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-
Synfuels sions (Searchinger et al, 2008). The UN advisor
on food, Olivier de Schutter, claims that energy
This category refers to fuel components that are crops have driven up food prices and has called
similar to those of current fossil-derived petrol for a freeze on biofuel investment (BBC, 2008c).
(gasoline) and diesel fuels and hence can be used A UK government commissioned review of
in existing fuel distribution systems and with biofuel policy concluded that although biofu-
standard ICEs. Synfuels can be derived from bio- els had a role in a low carbon transport future it
mass (BTL, Biomass to Liquid, applies to syn- was unlikely that the EU target of 10 per cent by
thetic fuels made from biomass through a thermo 2020 could be met sustainably. A target of 58
chemical route. Feedstock biomass that may be per cent is claimed to be more viable (Gallagher,
used in this process includes wood, straw, corn, 2008).
garbage and sewage-sludge. Synfuels can also be It is likely that biofuels will continue to play a
produced from coal (CTL coal to liquid) and role in the fuel supply system, although the quan-
tity and types will depend upon market condi-
gas (GTL gas to liquid). These are sometimes
tions and public acceptability. Other alternative
referred to as second generation biofuels.
fuels such as hydrogen can be used in the ICE but
BTL and cellulosic ethanol have the potential
there are problems related to the onboard stor-
to reduce conventional energy consumption (and
age of hydrogen and the lack of re-fuelling infra-
GHG emissions) by up to 90 per cent. But this
structure.There are examples of efforts to develop
has to be balanced against the energy expended
new infrastructure to make hydrogen available for
in the production process. BTL is a developing
vehicles, such as the Hydrogen Highway in Cali-
technology and the overall efciency (or energy
fornia (California Hydrogen Highway, 2008).
cost) of production is dependent upon the bio-
96 The Future of Energy Use
unit sales by 2010. The US is the largest hybrid other types of vehicular transport systems such as
market with Toyota the clear leader there and buses, truck and light and heavy rail systems and a
worldwide. The most popular range is Prius but number of systems are being developed.
sales of the Lexus model are increasing. World-
wide sales of hybrids were 750,946 units by
August 2006, with just over half sold in the US Hydrogen and fuel cells
and 36,470 sold in Europe, an increase of 11 per
cent over the previous year (The Climate Group, Hydrogen does not come as a pre-existing source
2007). Currently most major manufacturers have of energy as do fossil fuels, but as an energy carrier.
either introduced hybrid models or are planning In effect producing hydrogen from the electroly-
to. sis of water means that hydrogen stores or carries
Electric vehicles have been in service for some the energy that was used to power the process. In
time but have typically been used for specialist or some respects this is similar to a battery. Hydro-
niche areas, for example, the milk oat. Battery gen can be produced from both renewable and
vehicles rely on an external source of electric- non-renewable energy sources. Hydrogen can be
ity for recharging. There are only a few models used in an ICE, but the technological drive has
available, for example, the electric Smart Car, a focused on use in a fuel cell; this is more ef-
development of the Smart Car manufactured by cient as the power can be supplied directly to the
Mercedes Benz, of which 100 units are being tri- motors that drive the wheels, eliminating many
alled in London by local authorities, estate agents, of the moving parts found in a conventional
building associations and other eet users who vehicle. Hydrogen reacts with oxygen inside the
live inside the capitals congestion charge zone fuel cell which produces electricity. Figure 4.12
(English, 2008; What Car?, 2007). Both hybrid gives an overview of a PEM (Polymer Electrolyte
and electric technologies are also suitable for Membrane) fuel cell.
In order to produce sufcient power to drive a electric and fuel cell vehicles are still in develop-
vehicle, fuel cells are connected together in series ment stage, technological problems are not the
and parallel in order to produce sufcient volt- only barriers to adoption. Others include:
age and current. These congurations are known
as stacks. The PEM fuel cell is the most suitable Public awareness price as opposed to lifecy-
for vehicles because of its relatively low operating cle cost is a primary public consideration; the
temperature. There are other types of fuel cells range of vehicles is perceived as small even
that use different materials and can be used for though it is generally sufcient for most trips
different applications, as shown in Table 4.11. and there is a lack of condence because of
past technical problems such as battery fail-
Fuel cell vehicles ure.
Manufacturers as with any new technology
A primary area of research is hydrogen storage in there is a lack of standardization for compo-
order to increase the range of hydrogen vehicles, nents and test methods.
while reducing the weight, energy consumption Utilities there are safety and demand man-
and complexity of the storage systems. Two pri- agement issues around connecting large
mary methods of storage are metal hydrides and numbers of electric vehicles to the grid for
compression. Fuel cell technology is still devel- charging purposes (IEA, 2007b).
oping and it is unlikely that fuel cell vehicles will
gain a signicant market share of the road vehicle Despite the development problems associated
eet before 2015 (IEA, 2007b). Although hybrid, with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the fact that
Efciency of End Use 99
EU policy context
Transport was one of the European Communi-
tys earliest common policies. Since the Treaty
of Rome entered into force in 1958, transport
policy has focused on removing obstacles at the
borders between member states to facilitate the
free movement of persons and goods. The trans-
port industry also occupies an important position
in the EU, accounting for 7 per cent of its gross
national product (GNP), 7 per cent of all jobs, 40
Source: Carrette et al, 2001
per cent of member states investment and 30 per
cent of Community energy consumption. Table
Figure 4.13 NECAR PEM vehicle 4.12 gives more detailed statistics of transport
100 The Future of Energy Use
Table 4.12 Statistical overview of EU transport (data for 2006, unless otherwise indicated)
Employment The transport services sector employed about 8.8 million persons in the European Unions 27
Sovereign States (EU27). Almost two-thirds (63%) of them worked in land transport (road,
rail, inland waterways), 2% in sea transport, 5% in air transport and 30% in supporting and
auxiliary transport activities (such as cargo handling, storage and warehousing, travel and
transport agencies, tour operators).
Household Expenditure In 2006, private households in the EU27 spent 893 billion or roughly 13.6% of their total
consumption on transport.
About one-third of this sum (around 297 billion) was used to purchase vehicles, almost half
(440 billion) was spent on the operation of personal transport equipment (e.g. to buy fuel
for the car) and the remainder (155 billion) was spent on transport services.
Goods Transport The demand for the four land transport modes road, rail, inland waterways and pipelines in
the EU27 added up to 2595 billion tkm in 2006. Road transport accounted for 72.7% of this
total, rail for 16.7%, inland waterways for 5.3% and oil pipelines for the remaining 5.2%.
If intra-EU maritime transport (the demand for which is estimated to have been around 1545
billion tkm) and intra-EU air transport (3.0 billion tkm) are added to the land modes, then
the share of road transport is reduced to 45.6%, rail accounts for 10.5%, inland waterways
contribute 3.3% and oil pipelines add another 3.2%. Maritime transport then accounts for
37.3% and air transport for 0.1% of the total (all referring to the EU27 in 2006).
Passenger Transport Intra-EU27 and domestic transport demand using passenger cars, powered two-wheelers,
buses and coaches, railways as well as tram and metro was about 5746 billion pkm or 11,674
km per person in 2006. Passenger cars accounted for 80.1% of this total, powered two-
wheelers for 2.7%, buses and coaches for 9.1%, railways for 6.7% and tram and metro for
1.5%.
Adding intra-EU air transport (the demand for which is estimated to have been around 547
billion pkm in 2006) and intra-EU sea transport (40 billion pkm) to the land modes reduces
the share of passenger cars to 72.7% and the share of powered two-wheelers to 2.4%. Buses
and coaches then account for 8.3%, railways for 6.1% and tram and metro for 1.3%. The
two additional modes, air and sea, contribute 8.6% and 0.6% respectively (all referring to the
EU27 in 2006).
Transport Growth Goods transport: about 2.8% per year (19952006).
Passenger transport: about 1.7% per year (19952006).
Transport Safety Road: 42,953 persons killed in the EU27 (fatalities within 30 days) in 2006, 5.2% fewer than
in 2005 (when 45,296 people lost their lives). In comparison with 2000, the number of road
fatalities was lower by almost a quarter (23.9%).
Rail: 65 fatalities in 2005 (not including suicides).
Air: in 2006, 4 air passengers died over EU territory and 1 passenger died on board an EU
carrier throughout the world.
Source: Adapted from EU Commission, 2007a, sect. 3.1.1
and Figure 4.14 shows the growth in transport White Paper (European transport policy for 2010:
between 1996 and 2006. time to decide EU Commission, 2001)) points
Much of the thrust of EU policy has been out that the efciency of the transport system is
aimed at ensuring the free movement of goods less than optimal. For example, the trans-Euro-
and products, however, more recently environ- pean transport network itself increasingly suffers
mental concerns have risen in importance along from chronic congestion: some 7500km, that is
with concerns about energy security and increas- some 10 per cent of the road network, is affected
ing congestion, especially in urban areas. The daily by trafc jams. And 16,000km of railways,
Efciency of End Use 101
135
130
125
1995=100
120
115
110
105
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Passengers (1) (otm) Goods (2) (itm) GDP (at constant 1995 prices)
Notes:
(1) : passenger cars, powered two-wheelers, buses & coaches, tram & metro, railways, intra-EU air, intra-EU sea
(2) : road, rail,
rail inland waterways, oil pipelines, Intra-EU air, Intra-EU sea
GDP : at constant 1995 prices and exchange rates
20 per cent of the network, are classed as bot- system capable of restoring the balance between
tlenecks. A total of 16 of the EUs main airports different modes, revitalizing the railways, promot-
recorded delays of more than a quarter of an hour ing sea and waterway transport and controlling
on more than 30 per cent of their ights. Alto- the increase in air transport, in response to the
gether, these delays result in the consumption of sustainable development strategy adopted by the
an extra 1.9 billion litres of fuel, which is some Gteborg European Council in June 2001.
6 per cent of annual consumption (EU Com- Scenarios produced for the EU Commission
mission, 2001).The White Paper proposed almost into future transport and based on a projection
60 measures designed to implement a transport that takes into account transport policy measures,
102 The Future of Energy Use
promote improved energy efciency on a Euro- tally friendly technology for planes. It aims
pean scale. Essentially the policy framework is to reduce noise, fuel consumption and CO2
aimed at tackling the negative effects of transport, emissions per passenger kilometre by half, as
notably through improved logistics and trafc well as slashing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emis-
management and the promotion of cleaner, safer sions by 80 per cent by 2020 (Clean Sky,
vehicles. Technology and the use of scal meas- undated).
ures are envisaged as mechanisms for optimizing The EU will impose a cap on CO2 emissions
transport systems. Fiscal measures are premised on for all planes arriving at or departing from
the external costs of transport systems. Transport EU airports from 2012. Airlines will be able
demand continues to increase with ever increas- to buy and sell pollution credits on the EU
ing congestion in urban areas and some 60 EU carbon market or Emissions Trading Scheme
airports predicted as being unable to cope with (ETS) (European Parliament, 2008).
demand by 2025. The EU has published a hand-
book on estimates of external costs in the trans-
port sector (Maibach et al, 2008). However, it is Technology measures
uncertain at this time how an EU-wide scheme
for infrastructure will be developed. The only Initially technology measures in the EU have
proposal at the moment is to allow member states been aimed at reducing the emissions of pollut-
to charge heavy freight vehicles of more than 3.5 ants from ICEs, for example, the introduction
tonnes, through the Eurovignette Directive, that of unleaded fuel and catalytic converters. More
will come into force in 2012. The external costs recently the EU has developed policy that has
can include congestion costs, environmental pol- been aimed at improving the efciency of ICEs.
lution, noise, landscape damage, social costs such Cars account for around 20 per cent of
as health and indirect accident costs which are not total European emissions of carbon dioxide. In
covered by insurance. It is difcult to estimate 1995, the EU heads of state and government
the impact this will have, although congestion set an ambitious goal of reducing emissions of
charges, for example, as in London, have been CO2 from new cars to 120 grammes per kilo-
shown to reduce trafc levels. metre (g/km) by 2012 as a measure to combat
In the aviation sector the EU plans to intro- climate change. This corresponds to fuel con-
duce a Single European Sky (SES) by 2025 that sumption of 4.5 litres per 100km (62.7 miles per
will alleviate the blockages caused by the interac- gallon (mpg))for diesel cars and 5 litres/100km
tion of 27 different national airspaces under the (46.5mpg) for petrol cars.
control of national governments.This, it is argued, The EU strategy was based mainly on volun-
will reduce aviation congestion and improve tary commitments from the car industry, which
safety by reforming the current Air Trafc Man- promised to gradually improve the fuel efciency
agement System. Aviation is currently responsible of new vehicles. Other stratagems, such as rais-
for 3 per cent of the worlds GHG emissions.This ing awareness among consumers and inuenc-
is expected to rise as air trafc doubles by 2020. ing demand through scal measures were also
SES is one part of a three part scheme aimed at expected to contribute to the overall goal.
greening aviation. The other aspects are: In 1998 a voluntary agreement between
ACEA (the EUs Automobile Manufacturers
A Clean Sky Joint Technology Initiative that Association) and the Commission included a
is aimed at developing breakthrough tech- commitment by carmakers to achieve a target of
nologies that will signicantly improve the 140g/km by 2008. Japanese and Korean car pro-
impact of air transport on the environment. ducers, represented by JAMA and KAMA, made
The Clean Sky initiative is a 1.6 billion pub- a similar commitment for 2009. Although signi-
licprivate research partnership to help the cant progress was made, average emissions only
air-transport industry develop environmen- fell from 186g/km in 1995 to 161g/km in 2004.
104 The Future of Energy Use
In 2008 the Commission decided that the volun- year according to Boeing (Boeing, 2005). Within
tary commitments would not achieve their target Europe, passenger numbers in the EU15 nations
and that binding legislation was necessary. increased at 5.3 per cent per year between 1993
The EU has introduced a draft Regulation and 2002 (Layos, 2005).
that sets a binding target for new cars of 120g/ Both of the principal aircraft manufactur-
km by 2012. The EU has proposed an integrated ers, Boeing and Airbus, predict similar growth
approach where average emissions are to be patterns up to 2023. Airbus predicts that global
brought down to just 130g/km through improve- passenger trafc will grow on average at 5.3 per
ments in vehicle technology. The remaining cuts cent per year between 2004 and 2023 and world
(10g/km) are to be achieved by complementary passenger kilometres are expected to triple by
measures, such as the further use of biofuels, fuel- 2023 and Boeing predicts growth rates of 5.2
efcient tyres and air conditioning, trafc and per cent per year for passengers and 6.2 per cent
road-safety management and changes in driver per year for cargo. Low cost carriers are likely
behaviour (eco-driving). Similarly manufactur- to continue to drive growth in Europe and for
ers of luxury vehicles will be allowed to produce destinations outside of Europe. In 2008 the EU
models that exceed this limit provided it is bal- and the US established an Open Skies agreement.
anced by the production of more efcient mod- This is a two stage programme. The rst stage
els (EU Commission, 2007b). removed all caps on routes, prices, or the number
As the ICE is a heat engine the efciency that of weekly ights between the two markets. The
can be obtained is limited by the laws of thermo- second stage, to be implemented at the end of
dynamics. Although the efciency of vehicles can 2008, could lead to the removal of limits on serv-
be improved through better design and driver ices operated by carriers or investors within the
behaviour, the reality is that signicant improve- others market. The removal of such limits would
ments in terms of reducing GHG emissions will normalize transatlantic aviation, bringing it into
be realized through hybrid vehicles and vehicles line with the changes that we have already seen
that do not rely on hydrocarbon fuels, for exam- in other sectors of the economy. It is difcult to
ple, electric vehicles, provided that the electric- judge the impact of this agreement (EU Com-
ity is generated from non-hydrocarbon resources mission, undated-a).
such as renewables or nuclear power.
Similar thinking also applies to the aviation
sector, where progress has been made in improv- Impacts of aviation
ing efciency, but again this is limited and a new
approach is needed. Aircraft emit gases and particles directly into the
upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where
they have an impact on atmospheric composition.
These gases and particles alter the concentration
Aviation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including car-
bon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and methane
Since 1960, global air passenger trafc (expressed (CH4); trigger the formation of condensation
as revenue passenger-kms) has increased by trails (contrails); and may increase cirrus cloudi-
nearly 9 per cent per year, which according to the ness all of which contribute to climate change.
IPCC is 2.4 times the growth rate of the global The IPPC estimates that CO2 emissions from air-
average GDP (IPCC, 1999). IPCC forecasts that craft were 0.14Gt C/year in 1992.This was about
between 1990 and 2015 growth will be 5 per 2 per cent of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide
cent per year while fuel use will grow by 3 per emissions in 1992 or about 13 per cent of carbon
cent per year as aircraft have become more ef- dioxide emissions from all transportation sources
cient. Between 1993 and 2003, world air freight with emissions likely to grow between 1.6 and 10
grew at extremely high rates 6.2 per cent per times this value up to 2050 depending on which
Efciency of End Use 105
scenario is the most likely. For the reference sce- has been achieved through improvements to
nario, which is based on mid-range growth and engines and to airframe design. The majority
increased technological improvements in ef- of the efciency improvement has come from
ciency, the IPCC predicts that this would repre- improved engine performance. The IPCC pre-
sent 4 per cent of all human produced CO2. dicts that efciencies will continue to improve
NOx emitted from aircraft is involved in and suggests that by 2015 there will have been
ozone chemistry and levels are predicted to rise a 20 per cent improvement over current designs
by some 13 per cent, although there is considera- and a 40 per cent improvement by 2050 (IPCC,
ble uncertainty. Ozone is a greenhouse gas as well 1999). Jet aircraft require a high energy density
as a shield against harmful ultraviolet radiation fuel and it is unlikely that aviation kerosene (also
but it tends to be localized around ight paths called mineral kerosene) will be replaced in the
and predominantly in the northern mid-latitudes near future. There is interest in what is termed a
(unlike CO2 and methane which tend to mix kerosene extender. This is where an alternative
globally). NOx reduces atmospheric methane (a fuel is added to kerosene, one being biodiesel.
greenhouse gas) and is forecast to be 5 per cent However, as a study by the Tyndall Centre notes,
by 2050 compared to if there were no aircraft. there are problems. Performance in cold temper-
Contrails are formed by water vapour emit- atures, such as those experienced at altitude, can
ted by aircraft and tend to warm the Earths sur- be compromised as biodiesel alters the crystal-
face. In 1992 contrails were estimated to cover lization properties of aviation fuel at low tem-
about 0.1 per cent of the Earths surface on an peratures. Filtering techniques can be used for
annually averaged basis with larger regional val- mixtures that contain up to 10 per cent biodiesel,
ues. Contrail cover is projected to grow to 0.5 so that the fuel continues to meet safety require-
per cent by 2050 at a rate which is faster than the ments. Research is needed, however, before it is
rate of growth in aviation fuel consumption due likely that the fuel specications will be changed
to the increased number of subsonic ights in the to use this kind of approach (Bows et al, 2006).
upper troposphere (around 13km). Extensive cir- Note that concerns about the increasing use of
rus clouds have been observed to develop after agricultural land for fuel production are likely to
the formation of extensive contrails. However, impede progress.
this phenomenon is poorly understood but may Other approaches include the production of
contribute to global warming (IPCC, 1999). synthetic fuels using the Fischer-Tropsch process.
This is typically a three-step procedure:
Mitigating the impacts Syngas generation: the feedstock is converted
into synthesis gas composed of carbon mon-
Although the industry is aware of the impacts,
oxide and hydrogen.
taking measures to reduce them is not easy. For
Hydrocarbon synthesis: the syngas is catalytically
example, ying at a lower altitude could reduce
converted into a mixture of liquid hydrocar-
contrails but would mean increased fuel con-
bons and wax, producing a synthetic crude.
sumption. The options available to reduce the
Upgrading: the mixture of Fischer-Tropsch
impact of aviation emissions include changes in
hydrocarbons is upgraded through hydroc-
aircraft and engine technology, fuel, operational
racking and isomerization and fractionated
practices, and regulatory and economic meas-
into the desired fuels.
ures.
This method can manufacture kerosene that is
Fuel very similar both chemically and physically to
aviation kerosene, however, its lack of aromatic
Subsonic aircraft are around 70 per cent more molecules and the fact that it is virtually sulphur-
fuel-efcient than 40 years ago, something that free, give it poor lubricity. Additives could be
106 The Future of Energy Use
used to improve lubricity but the fuel has a lower the use of lightweight materials could reduce fuel
energy density than aviation kerosene which could usage, perhaps by as much as 30 per cent, further
impact long haul ights (Bows et al, 2006). reducing aircraft take-off weight. Because of the
Hydrogen may be viable as a fuel in the long lower weight and drag, this type of aircraft would
term, but would require new aircraft designs and have a lower cruise altitude and an extended
new infrastructure for its supply. Hydrogen has optimal range.
a high energy content but its low density will The WIGs concept relies on a phenomenon
require much larger fuel tanks. There would be a known as ground effect.The ground effect occurs
weight advantage due to aircraft carrying lighter as the distance between the ground and the wing
fuel, but this would be off-set to some degree by decreases to a length less than an aircrafts wing-
the weight of a larger fuel tank. The volume of span and this increases the ratio of lift to drag.
hydrogen carried would also be some 2.5 times This phenomenon has no advantage for small air-
that of the equivalent kerosene. The airframe craft but for larger aircraft a given payload can be
would therefore need to be larger, and so would transported much further than with conventional
have a correspondingly larger drag (Bows et al, designs. A proposal by Boeing, known as the Pel-
2006). Hydrogen fuel would eliminate emissions ican aircraft would have a wing-span of 150m,
of carbon dioxide from aircraft, but would increase will y as low as 6m above sea level and carry a
those of water vapour. The overall environmen- load of 750 tonnes of cargo for 18,500km when
tal impacts and the environmental sustainability in ground effect above the sea. At more standard
of the production and use of hydrogen or any altitude levels, this range for the same fuel burn
other alternative fuels have not been determined would be reduced to 12,000km. However there
(IPCC, 1999). are problems with the noise that would be gener-
In summary, there is some potential for ated by the large number of separate undercar-
biodiesel and synthetic kerosene in the medium riages. Current regulations do not permit such
term with existing airframe designs. Hydrogen low ying vehicles (Bows et al, 2006).
would require signicant changes to design and
infrastructure. A study by RECP suggests that it
is more likely that many of the technically feasi- Airships
ble options would be used in surface transport in
preference to aviation due to cost factors and ease The airship is not a new concept but one which
of implementation (RCEP, 2002). Essentially this has been revisited, especially for the transport of
means that carbon emissions from the aviation cargo. Despite causing 8090 per cent less radia-
fuels could be offset by the use of low and no- tive forcing than a conventional jet aircraft, the
carbon fuels in surface transport systems. Tyndall Centre reports that the technology is
not promising, mainly because of manoeuvrabil-
ity difculties in wind during the loading and
Airframe design unloading stages. There have been promising
designs for a cargo lifter such as the Skycat by
Although current passenger aircraft still retain the Airship Technologies Group (UK). To date, no
conventional airframe design, there are innova- successful large cargo lifter has been built, even
tive designs that could be used for either passen- though reputable rms such as Lockheed have
ger or freight. These are the blended wing-body planned projects (Bows et al, 2006).
(BWB) aircraft and the wing-in-ground effect
vehicles (WIGs). The Tyndall Centre reports that
the BWB idea has a long history. Conceptually Engine technology
the passenger area is blended into the wing con-
guration, effectively becoming a ying wing. The most fuel-efcient aircraft engines are high
The low drag of the design and the potential for bypass, high-pressure ratio gas turbine engines.
Efciency of End Use 107
These engines have high combustion pressures ing (aircraft ying in a xed pattern waiting for
and temperatures. Although these features are permission to land), inefcient routings and sub-
consistent with fuel efciency, they do increase optimal ight proles. These limitations result in
the formation rates of NOx especially at high excess fuel burn and consequently excess emis-
power take-off and at altitude cruise conditions. sions (IPCC, 1999).
There is substantial research into reducing NOx Inefcient routings have evolved as part of
during the Landing and Take-off (LTO) cycle the historic infrastructure when reliable naviga-
with the goal of reducing NOx by up to 70 per tion was through ground-based beacons. Glo-
cent and improving engine fuel consumption bal positioning satellites (GPS) and modern on-
by 810 per cent by 2010. A reduction of NOx board ight management systems provide the
emissions would also be achieved at cruise alti- opportunity to optimize routes. The IPCC esti-
tude, though not necessarily by the same propor- mates that this could result in a 612 per cent
tion as for LTO (IPCC, 1999). reduction in fuel use providing the regulatory
Currently there are no known alternatives and institutional frameworks can be established.
to this type of aircraft engine and it is unlikely The EU plans to introduce a Single European
that airframe design will change radically. Other Sky (SES) by 2025 that will alleviate the block-
methods of improving efciency are load factors, ages caused by the interaction of 27 different
air-trafc management (ATM), regulatory and national airspaces under the control of national
market based options. governments. This will reduce aviation conges-
tion and improve safety by reforming the current
ATM system.
Load factors
Load factors are the number of passengers or Regulatory and market based options
amount of freight carried on a given aircraft,
eliminating non-essential weight, optimizing air- Essentially this covers issues such as setting targets
craft speed, limiting the use of auxiliary power for efciency and emission rates for aircraft. The
(e.g. for heating, ventilation) and reducing taxi- aviation authorities currently use this approach
ing. The IPCC estimates that improvements in to regulate emissions for carbon monoxide,
these operational measures could reduce fuel hydrocarbons, NOx and smoke.The International
burned, and emissions, in the range of 26 per Civil Aviation Organization has begun work to
cent (IPCC, 1999). For passenger aircraft the assess the need for standards for aircraft emissions
charter sector has generally been more successful at cruise altitude to complement existing LTO
than scheduled services in optimizing passenger standards for NOx and other emissions (IPCC,
numbers. More effort and research into generat- 1999).
ing sophisticated ticketing technology, differing The aviation industry has itself set research
pricing bands and demand-focused time-tabling goals for improving fuel efciency by 50 per cent
may all lead to load factor improvements (Bows and to reduce NOx by 80 per cent. However, it
et al, 2006). will take a number of years for the whole eet to
be upgraded as the lifetimes of aircraft are long
(up to 40 years) and replacement rates are low.
Air-trafc management (ATM) The fuel efciency of the whole eet is likely to
improve slowly given that there is limited eet
Air trafc management systems are used for the renewal. Efciency improvements over the previ-
guidance, separation, coordination and control ous 20 years have been around 12 per cent per
of aircraft movements. Existing national and year, which would in turn lead to around a 12
international air-trafc management systems per cent improvement in efciency per year for
have limitations that result, for example, in hold- the total eet.
108 The Future of Energy Use
The EU plans to include aviation emissions in use in domestic appliances are also applicable
the EU ETS. It is unclear what this will mean in to commercial equipment and machinery. The
terms of greenhouse gas reductions from the sec- OECD does suggest that a reduction of one-
tor. At present the costs of aviation fuel are rising third in residential use is achievable by 2030
and it seems that this is likely to continue in the through the use of market measures.The EU sees
longer term. Higher costs may modify behaviour, a more rapid decline in domestic energy with a
for example, by reducing business travel through more interventionist approach. Boardman, using
the greater use of electronic conference facili- a scenario that aims for an 80 per cent reduc-
ties and other forms of communication. Leisure tion by 2050, identies that a series of measures
patterns could also change with a greater use of can realize that reduction. Improving efciency
alternatives such as rail or automobiles for shorter of end use has been viewed as the least painful
journeys. For long haul the use of charter ights way of reducing energy use. However, this must
could become more popular as their higher load be coupled to a mindset that sees efciency as
factors will help to keep costs down. something to be valued. The key policy drivers
are climate goals along with energy security. But
energy costs also play a role in the wider econ-
omy as well as at the household level. Reducing
Summary energy costs is important for any business organi-
zation or service provider. It is also important in
Buildings will play a key role in reducing energy. terms of reducing fuel poverty. Improved energy
This is particularly important in the EU and efciency has a key role in these areas.
OECD areas as much of the energy used in build- Transport is a key issue in both the devel-
ings is produced from non-renewable resources. oped and developing worlds. The road and rail
To maximize the efciency buildings will require networks are key infrastructures for the move-
changes in building design and this may well ment of people and freight. Although road trans-
mean that efcient buildings in the future look port is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, there is
very different to existing types. For ZEBs there the potential to move to more renewable sources
will also be a need to embed or install renewable such as biofuels and electric vehicles. However,
capacity for the production of hot water and elec- there are concerns that the biofuel route will not
tricity within the fabric of the building, which be sustainable in the long term, driven by fears
again will give a very different visual aspect. But that food security could be undermined. Elec-
what this will signal is that there is an intimate tric vehicles, particularly those powered from
connection between the energy we need and a renewable capacity, offer the most sustainable
the ways in which we gather and manage energy option, but considerable development in terms
resources and a more efcient approach is sourc- of battery and fuel cell technologies is needed.
ing much closer to the point of use.This has some The infrastructure challenges are huge. However,
interesting implications for the current structure the car market is also huge and it is likely that
of energy delivery which is based on a model manufacturers will nd a way of developing that
of a few suppliers and many users. With in-built infrastructure if they believe that the public will
capacity, buildings have the potential to be both make the shift. The high and volatile price of oil
users, producers or autonomous.This will tend to may well be a key factor in that transition.
transform the current top-down model to a at- The aviation sector has received considerable
ter more integrated and interconnected mode. attention as the popularity of air travel has con-
There is considerable scope to reduce the tinued to grow. A number of environmentalists
energy used by lighting systems and appliances have expressed concern about the impacts of avi-
within the domestic sector. Similar arguments ation. The impacts are not just limited to energy
apply to the commercial sector as it also requires and the impact of emissions on the greenhouse
lighting and many principles for reducing energy effect. Issues such as noise during take off and
Efciency of End Use 109
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5
Conventional Fuels
Catagenesis: This is the mature stage of the some cases, the deposits are located in areas that
process where further ageing and sedimen- are viewed as politically volatile. Figure 5.1 shows
tation increases temperature and pressure to the global distribution of oil deposits.
give a range of petroleum hydrocarbons by Note that this shows proved reserves. Proved
thermal cracking. reserves are the amount of oil that it is technically
Metagenesis: Below 5000m or so the increases and nancially possible to recover from a well. As
in temperature and pressure are such as to technology improves it may be possible to extract
convert the hydrocarbon material to meth- further oil either by ooding with water or gas.
ane and residual carbon. Oil is seldom found These techniques are used, although not widely,
below this depth. and are termed enhanced oil recovery (EOR).
(EOR is actively being tested as a technique for
In order for hydrocarbons to accumulate the the permanent storage of carbon dioxide pro-
source or sedimentary rock must have access to duced from the combustion of fossil fuels; see
a reservoir rock and this must be capped by an Carbon capture and storage later in this chap-
impermeable rock so that the hydrocarbons are ter). Proved reserves do not include oil deposits
effectively trapped. These conditions are quite that are thought to exist, but have yet to be dis-
rare. There are some 600 sedimentary basins, covered. From Figure 5.1 it can be seen that the
although all have not been explored for a variety distribution of oil deposits is very uneven across
of reasons such as their location in deep water countries, with some areas, such as Asia Pacic
or in the polar-regions or because of political having a low level and others, such as the Middle
restrictions. Oil deposits are scattered throughout East, having reserves that are equivalent to 37 per
the world and this distribution has led recently cent of known global reserves.
to growing concerns about energy security as, in
Conventional Fuels 117
143.7
111.2 117.5
69.3
40.8
Asia Pacic North S. & Cent. Africa Europe & Middle East
America America Eurasia
There is one further category of reserves, known are investing considerable sums in developing
as unconventional reserves, that could add signi- appropriate techniques. Reserves are believed
cantly to total global reserves. These include: to exceed supplies of conventional oil.
Heavy oils: these can be pumped and rened In 2000 the US Geological Survey estimated oil
just like conventional petroleum except that reserves at some 3 trillion barrels of oil, which
they are thicker and have more sulphur and includes unconventional resources. This is very
heavy metal contamination, necessitating different to the view shown in Figure 5.1 which
more extensive rening. Venezuelas Orinoco gives a reserve value of 1.3 trillion barrels of con-
heavy oil belt is the best known example of ventional reserves (USGS, 2000). Other authors
this kind of unconventional reserve. There are have suggested that total reserves could be as high
estimated reserves of 1.2 trillion barrels, of as 5 trillion barrels (Odell and Rosing, 1980).
which about one-third of the oil is potentially These differences are important as it inuences
recoverable using current technology. the debate over Peak Oil, a debate that reects
Tar-sands: can be recovered via surface mining concern that at some time oil and gas will run
or in-situ collection techniques. Again, this out as they are non-renewable resources. The
is more expensive than lifting conventional Peak Oil concept was rst advanced by Marion
petroleum but not prohibitively so. Canadas King Hubbert. Hubbert argued, based on an
Athabasca Tar Sands is the best known exam- analysis of production and consumption gures
ple of this kind of unconventional reserve. in the US, that consumption would exceed pro-
There are estimated reserves of 1.8 trillion duction at around 1970 and the world produc-
barrels of which 280300bn barrels may be tion would peak around 2000, as shown in Figure
recoverable. Production now accounts for 5.2 (Hubbert, 1971).
about 20 per cent of Canadas oil supply. Although Hubberts estimate for the occur-
Oil shale: requires extensive processing and rence of the US peak have proved to be fairly
consumes large amounts of water and is very reliable, there is considerable controversy about
environmentally damaging. Oil companies the date for global Peak Oil as well as for Peak
118 The Future of Energy Use
40 80 PERCENT IN 61 YEARS
80 PERCENT IN 58 YEARS
resources using USGS and the Association for the
Study of Peak Oil, Campbell gives quite different
30 outcomes; the rst suggests a peak using USGS
between 2010 and 2030 and the second before
20
2010 ( Green et al, 2004).
What does appear to be clear is that demand
10
for oil (and other energy resources) is grow-
0
ing and looks likely to continue to do so. The
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
question for energy planners is how much is
Source: Hubbert, 1971, p39 demand likely to rise over a given period. This
is an important issue as it often takes consider-
Figure 5.2 Peak oil able time and investment to develop an energy
resource, either a primary resource or the tech-
nology and infrastructure to transform a primary
resource into an energy service to meet demand.
30
Projecting what might happen in terms of pro-
duction and consumption over long time periods
20
MEast is complex. The gures shown in the following
Gb/a
Other
sections are taken from the Energy Information
10
Administration which is an independent statisti-
Russia
Europe
cal and analytical agency within the US Depart-
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
US48
Figure 5.5 World marketed energy consumption: Figure 5.6 World marketed energy use by fuel
OECD and non-OECD, 19802030 type, 19902030
59.41
14.46 14.58
7.73 7.98
S. & Cent. North Asia Pacic Africa Europe & Middle East
America America Eurasia
Coal
Coal is a complex organic material consisting
of fused carbon rings held together by assorted
hydrocarbon and other atomic (oxygen, nitrogen
and sulphur) linkages. Its average composition is
something like C10H8O (this ratio of 10 carbon
atoms to 8 of hydrogen can be contrasted with
the ratio of 10 carbons to 17.5 hydrogens in crude
oil). It is formed from dead plant material which
has accumulated in swamps, usually in estuarine
deltaic deposits, and which has been consolidated
Source: EIA/DOE, 2008, p37 and altered by increasing temperature and pres-
sure. In a similar evolutionary pattern to oil, the
Figure 5.8 World natural gas consumption, 1980 rst stage in the conversion process is an anaero-
2030 bic breakdown of the plant material which causes
volatile products to be liberated and lost to give
a compacted unstructured mass of compounds
enriched in carbon. The second stage is the
cubic feet. Natural gas liquees at about minus process of coalication which proceeds through
() 163 degrees Celsius, reducing its volume to the ranks of peat, lignite, sub-bituminous coal,
one sixth-hundredth (1/600), making export by bituminous coal and anthracite to graphite. The
cryogenic sea vessels much more cost efcient proportion of carbon is gradually increased in
than by pipeline. this progression. Caloric values of the various
ranks range from 1526kJ/g for low rank lig-
nites, through 3135kJ/g for bituminous coals to
122 The Future of Energy Use
49.6 (49.4)
16.3 (7.2)
1.4 (1.4)
Middle East S. & Cent. Africa North Asia Pacic Europe &
America America Eurasia
3033kJ/g for anthracite. Coal deposits are not In terms of carbon emissions, coal emits slightly
found before the Carboniferous age (about 400 more than oil, and about double that of natural
million years ago), and the most important and gas. In the rapidly industrializing nations such as
widespread date from the Carboniferous to the India and China, coal is increasingly used to gen-
early Triassic age (345200 million years ago), erate power and this is reected in non-OECD
and from the Jurassic to the early Tertiary age growth, as shown in Figure 5.10.
(15050 million years ago). In general, the older No one disagrees that nations, developed or
coals have the highest rank but, depending on developing, have a right to strive to improve the
the geological history of the deposits, this is not well-being of their citizens and that they have a
necessarily so. Although coal is widespread the right to use whatever resources available to do
major deposits are unevenly distributed, as shown that task. However, coal produces a large amount
in Figure 5.9, the bulk of the deposits are to be of carbon during combustion and this has global
found in North America, Europe and Eurasia and consequences. Finding a way of either develop-
Asia Pacic. ing a new and cleaner resource or nding ways of
Altough coal had a major role in the Industrial minimizing or eliminating the adverse impacts of
Revolution, the rapid changes in OECD coun- coal is an urgent policy and technological chal-
tries in the latter half of the twentieth century lenge.
brought about changes in the market for coal. For
example, in the UK, following the Clean Air Act,
coal was no longer used in domestic households.
Coal has been replaced in transport systems and Policy context
the decline in energy intensive industries such as
iron and steel has seen the market for coal shrink. There is no global energy policy. Energy policy is
Coal remains an important fuel for electricity determined at the level of the state. Energy is so
production, but climate concerns are beginning fundamental to development that governments
to inuence how coal will be used in the future. throughout the world have acted to ensure that
Conventional Fuels 123
From Figure 5.11 the losses in the system Improving efciency is an important com-
increase as resources are transformed into usable ponent of reducing greenhouse production. That
energy services. There are losses or energy costs requires efforts to improve supply-side and end
associated with each step, for example, energy is use efciencies. End use efciency has been cov-
required both to build a pipeline and to trans- ered in Chapter 4. On the supply side of con-
port oil and gas through it. Losses could occur if ventional energy, improving the efciency of
the pipeline is damaged. This is also the case for electricity production offers the largest scope.
products leaving a renery and electricity leav- However, power station efciency is governed by
ing a power station. However, the largest areas of the laws of thermodynamics and only marginal
loss are in the transformation of coal and gas into improvements are possible (see Box 5.3).
electricity and the use of transport fuels. In elec- By combining both the Rankin and Brayton
tricity production the losses are realized as heat Cycles, by using the waste heat from one as the
and these can be captured and used for other pur- heat source for the other, then signicant ef-
poses. Carbon emissions are realized at the point ciency improvements can be made.This is known
of production and because they are concentrated as the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) and
the emissions can be captured and processed for is shown in Figure 5.12. The overall efciency of
storage. The losses in the transport systems are the CCGT is about 60 per cent. By using the
much more diffuse, as are the emissions. waste heat for other purposes such as space heat-
Conventional Fuels 125
The Steam Turbine: this operates on the Rankin Cycle, a thermodynamic cycle that converts heat
into work. This is a closed loop system that uses water as the working uid. It is the most com-
monly used cycle for electricity production. Superheated steam (high pressure and temperature)
is introduced to an expansion device, the turbine, where, as it expands and cools, it exerts force
on the turbine blades. The blades are mounted perpendicular to the turbine axis and the force
causes it to rotate. The temperature difference between the input and the output is a measure
of the work done by the turbine. At the turbine exhaust the steam enters a condenser where it is
cooled and then re-circulated by means of a pump. Ideally the efciency of the Rankine Cycle is
63 per cent. In reality the overall thermal efciency is between 3540 per cent. The exhaust heat
from the condenser is very energetic and could be used for other purposes.
The Gas Turbine: this operates on the Brayton Cycle, a constant pressure cycle used in gas tur-
bines and jet engines. It has three components; a compressor, a combustion chamber and a
turbine. Compressed air from the compressor is heated either by directly burning fuel in it or by
burning fuel externally in a heat exchanger. The heated air with or without products of combus-
tion is expanded in a turbine resulting in work. More than 60 per cent of the work produced
is used to drive the compressor and the balance, up to 40 per cent, is available as useful work
output. The exhaust stream from a gas turbine is also very energetic.
Fuel
Gas Turbine
Combustion Chamber
Electricity
Intake
Air Generator
Compressor Turbine
Turbine
Generator
Electricity
Condenser Water
Pump
Steam Turbine
Waste Heat:
Industrial Process
Space Heating
waste as a fuel, although this is somewhat contro- of electricity production from cogeneration by
versial. The heat can be used for industrial pur- 2010. In 2004 the Commission introduced a
poses or space heating. Space heating can range Directive on the promotion of cogeneration
from the municipal level, known as district heat- (CHP) based on useful heat demand in the
ing, through to the household level. internal energy market. Its purpose is to increase
The concept of district heating is not new energy efciency and improve security of sup-
and is used in Europe and North America. In ply by creating a framework for promotion and
London, for example, the Pimlico District Heat- development of high efciency cogeneration. It
ing Undertaking (PDHU), constructed in 1950, denes high efciency cogeneration as cogenera-
used waste heat from Battersea Power Station. tion providing at least 10 per cent energy savings
Although Battersea Power Station is now closed, compared to separate production. The Directive
the PDHU uses other systems to provide heat. does not specify a target but focuses on providing
In 1903 the municipality of Frederiksberg in a framework that will promote cogeneration (EU
Denmark constructed a municipal incinera- Commission, 2004).
tor that provided heat and power. In 2006 in Improving the efciency of the conventional
Europe CHP systems produced about 11 per supply-side can bring efciency improvements
cent (143GW) of overall electricity production and reduce greenhouse gas production. However,
and some 3100PJ of heat. About 68 per cent of the supply side will continue to produce signi-
electricity and 32 per cent of heat production is cant amounts of greenhouse gases and to make
supplied from dedicated facilities and some 32 signicant inroads into reducing these emissions
per cent of electricity and 68 per cent of heat will require a different approach.
is produced by organizations for their own use
(Eurostat, 2008).
In 1997 the EU Commissions cogenera-
tion strategy set an overall target of 18 per cent
Conventional Fuels 127
Table 5.1 Agricultural practices for enhancing productivity and increasing the amount of carbon in soils
Mechanisms to enhance carbon sequestration source of carbon dioxide and methane.These can
in soils include conservation tilling, cover crop- be comparable in magnitude to the amount of
ping and crop rotation. A more detailed listing carbon released from a fossil fuel powered plant
is shown in Table 5.1. This suggests that carbon of equivalent power.
sequestration in soils through improved man- Peat material has traditionally been used
agement should be a component in mitigation. as a fuel and more recently as a soil enhance-
At the very least it could help to lengthen the ment material. Although the peat cycle has been
time needed to implement other mitigation disturbed through such activities, other inter-
technologies. ventions such as re can result in considerable
releases of carbon. The peatlands of Borneo and
the neighbouring territories of Sumatra and
Forests and peatlands Irian Jaya are up to 20m deep and cover more
than 200,000km2.They contain 50 billion tonnes
The dead trees, plants and moss in peatlands or more of carbon far more than the forests
undergo slow anaerobic decomposition below above. As farmers clear the forests by burning, the
the surface. This process is slow enough that peat can catch re and release carbon for months
in many cases the peatlands grow rapidly and afterwards. During 1997 and 1998 smouldering
xes more carbon from the atmosphere than is peat beneath the Borneo forests was estimated to
released. Peatlands cover approximately 3 per have released between 0.8 and 2.6 billion tonnes
cent of the Earths land area and are estimated to of carbon into the atmosphere. That is equivalent
contain 350535Gt of carbon, or between 2025 to 1340 per cent of all emissions from burning
per cent of the worlds soil organic carbon stock fossil fuels in 1998 (Page et al, 2002).
(Gorham, 1991). Forests are estimated to contain about 20 per
Forests and peatlands can also be a source cent of the carbon stored in soils. Forests have
of carbon dioxide, for example, forest res can an important role in capturing and storing car-
quickly release absorbed carbon into the atmos- bon. However, these systems need to be carefully
phere. In addition, forest ooding, for exam- managed. Disturbance of the forest system, either
ple, by the construction of a hydroelectric dam though natural causes or human intervention, can
would allow the rotting vegetation to become a release carbon into the atmosphere. For example,
Conventional Fuels 129
Table 5.2 Prole by process or industrial activity of nia. Natural gas, coal, oil residuals or biomass
worldwide large stationary CO2 sources with emis- is reacted with oxygen, air and/or steam to
sions of more than 0.1 million tonnes of CO2 per generate a synthesis gas or syngas consist-
year (MtCO2 yr1) ing mainly of carbon monoxide and hydro-
gen. The carbon monoxide is reacted with
Process Number of Emissions steam to give CO2 and more hydrogen. The
sources (MtCO2 yr1) resulting gas mixture contains predominantly
hydrogen gas and CO2 (1540 per cent) at a
Fossil fuels high pressure. The carbon is separated from
Power 4942 10,539 the hydrogen, usually by physical solvent
Cement production 1175 ,932 absorption although membranes may be a
Reneries 638 ,798 promising option for the future.
Iron and steel industry 269 ,646 Post-combustion capture: This process is used
Petrochemical industries 470 ,379 to separate CO2 from power station exhaust
Oil and gas processing n/a ,50
streams for use in the food industry. Similar
Other sources 90 ,33
technology has been in use since 1996 sepa-
Biomass
rating 1Mt/y of CO2 from a natural gas stream
Bioethanol and bioenergy 303 ,91
for injection into an aquifer beneath the Nor-
Total 7887 13,466
wegian North Sea (the Sleipner project). CO2
Source: Adapted from IPCC, 2005, Table SPM.1 is captured from ue gas by separating it from
nitrogen and oxygen gases; the CO2 content
Around 33 million tons of CO2 have been cap- is low (313 per cent) and the separation is
tured and stored in over 70 projects (IEA, 2004). done at low pressure. The leading technol-
Many are experimental, but there are large-scale ogy in post-combustion capture is chemical
commercial projects in operation in Salah (Alge- solvent absorption using amine based solvents
ria), Weyburn (Canada), the North Sea (Sleipner) (commonly referred to as amine scrubbing)
and forthcoming in the Barents Sea, Gorgon although other solvents are being developed.
(Australia), Gassi Touil (Algeria) and other elds. Oxyfuel capture: This technique is still at the
CCS, however, is a relatively untried concept in pilot stage. Fossil fuels, especially coal, are
terms of industrial and power production proc- burnt in oxygen rather than air, producing a
esses. Up to 2007 no power plant had been devel- ue gas comprised mainly of CO2 and water.
oped that operated with a full carbon capture and This greatly facilitates the separation of CO2.
storage system (WEC, 2007a). The scope, how- Pure oxygen is produced by cryogenic sepa-
ever, is considerable and in 2008 a pilot scheme ration of air into mainly oxygen and nitro-
using coal as the fuel was developed in Germany. gen; this part of the process uses signicant
This is discussed later in this section. The poten- amounts of energy and is therefore costly.
tial for CCS technology is considerable as shown Burning fuel in pure oxygen results in an
in Table 5.2. Note this table refers to stationary extremely high ame temperature so part
sources. CCS for mobile sources such as vehi- of the ue gas is recycled to the combustion
cles is not realizable. Further power production chamber to control the ame temperature.
accounts for some 75 per cent of carbon emis- Finally, water is condensed from the ue gas
sions making this sector very attractive in terms that is not recycled. Some additional clean up
of CCS. of the CO2 may also be required (Adapted
There are a number of technological approaches from House of Commons Science and Tech-
to carbon capture: nology Committee, 2006, p15).
Pre-combustion capture: Currently used in the These approaches are illustrated in Figure 5.14.
industrial manufacture of hydrogen and ammo-
Conventional Fuels 131
Product
Post-combustion
Combustion Compression
CO2 CO2
separation
Pre-combustion
Fossil fuels, Compression
Gasification/reform H2 and CO2 CO2
biomass separation
Other Products
Oxyfuel
Compression
CO2
Combustion
compressing CO2 requires much energy. This should be undertaken prior to tting CCS tech-
would increase the energy needs of a plant with nology.With ageing equipment, retrotting poses
CCS by approximately 1040 per cent. This and some difcult challenges. However, it would
other system expenses would increase the costs of seem that building a new plant that either has the
energy from a power plant with CCS by 3060 capability of retrotting or has capture technol-
per cent depending on the specic circumstances ogy in-built would be a more sensible method.
(IPCC, 2005a) The committee concluded that CCS has consid-
The IEA estimated that the costs of CCS erable potential and that a long-term incentive
could be US$50100 per tonne of CO2 captured framework and a policy signal from government
and stored depending on the power plant fuel would be needed to give industry the condence
and the technology used. The bulk of the cost to proceed. But Haszeldine and Yaron (2008) nd
is on the capture side. By 2030, costs could fall that to date the picture from the UK government
to US$2550 per tonne. Using CCS with new is muddled and argue that CCS, like other low
power plants would increase electricity produc- carbon technologies, should be incentivized and
tion costs by 23 US cents/kWh falling to 12 they suggest a number of options:
US cents by 2030 including capture, transpor-
tation and storage. Scenarios developed by the create a Decarbonized Renewable Obliga-
IEA suggest that CCS potentials are between tion Certicate band similar to that for wind
3Gt and 7.6Gt CO2 in 2030 and between 5.5Gt energy;
and 19.2Gt CO2 in 2050. This compares to 38Gt introduce long-term purchase contracts for
CO2 emissions by 2030 under the WEO Refer- decarbonized fossil fuel electricity;
ence Scenario (The IEA World Energy Outlook allocate free EU Emission Trading Scheme
(WEO) Reference Scenario projects that, based allowances after 2012 to reward CO2 stored.
on policies in place, by 2030 CO2 emissions will
have increased by 63 per cent from todays level, This illustrates some of the policy difculties for
which is almost 90 per cent higher than 1990 any government. Which of the competing tech-
levels). For 2030 this gives a range of 820 per nologies is the most appropriate and how best
cent of carbon emissions. The scale of the range to support that technology? There are no clear
reects the uncertainty in technology develop- answers.
ment and the rate of implementation. This has an
impact on the longer term potential of CCS.The
Stern Review, for example, estimates that CCS
could contribute up to 28 per cent of global Storage
carbon dioxide mitigation by 2050, while IPCC
estimates that it could be 50 per cent by 2050 Storage of the carbon dioxide is envisaged either
(Stern, 2006; IPCC, 2005a). But the fact that all in deep geological formations, deep oceans or in
scenarios show a potential on a Gt scale suggests the form of mineral carbonates. Geological for-
that CCS technologies constitute a robust option mations are currently considered the most prom-
for emissions reduction. ising. WEC estimates that there are considerable
Although CCS has considerable potential, underground depositories for CO2. For example,
countries such as the UK, which has a eet of global capacities in saline formations are estimated
coal red power stations that were designed at 100010,000Gt CO2 and in depleted oil and
some 30 years ago and are inefcient, the value gas elds at 1100Gt CO2. This corresponds to
of retrotting a CCS technology that will fur- 90480 years of current world emissions at 23
ther decrease efciency is questionable (House 24Gt CO2/year. In addition CO2 can be stored
of Commons Science and Technology Commit- in abandoned or unminable coal seams or gla-
tee, 2006). Evidence presented to the Committee cial clathrates (WEC, 2007b). IPCC estimates the
suggested that retrotting to improve efciency economic potential of CCS could reach between
Conventional Fuels 133
1050 per cent of the total carbon mitigation of less than 800m. The technical feasibil-
effort until the year 2100 (IPCC, 2005a). Carbon ity depends on the permeability of the coal
storage is a relatively new concept in terms of bed. This process releases methane previously
climate change mitigation and the main options absorbed in the coals surface, which can be
are discussed briey below. recovered. This is known as Enhanced Coal
Bed Methane (ECBM) recovery. The sale of
the methane can offset the cost of the storage.
The feasibility of this approach has not been
Geological storage tested (IPCC, 2005a). Figure 5.15 illustrates
these techniques.
Also known as geo-sequestration, this method
involves injecting carbon dioxide directly into
underground geological formations where vari-
ous physical and geochemical trapping mecha- Ocean storage
nisms prevent the carbon dioxide from escaping
to the atmosphere. Possible formations include: Two concepts exist for ocean storage of carbon
dioxide. The dissolution type injects carbon
Depleted oil and gas reservoirs at depths below dioxide by ship or pipeline into the water col-
800m:This is a proven technology where car- umn at depths of 1000m or more, and the CO2
bon dioxide is injected to increase recovery. subsequently dissolves. The lake type depos-
This option ensures the storage cost is offset its carbon dioxide directly onto the sea oor at
by the sale of the additional oil and gas that is depths greater than 3000m, where carbon diox-
recovered. Various physical and geochemical ide is denser than water and is believed to form a
trapping mechanisms would prevent it from lake that will delay dissolution of carbon dioxide
migrating to the surface. In general, an essen- into the environment. These methods are illus-
tial physical trapping mechanism is the pres- trated in Figure 5.16.
ence of a caprock. Both dissolution and lake methods possess
Saline formations, both on- and offshore a range of issues to be overcome if they are to
at depths below 800m: These formations be widely accepted and effective in mitigating
contain highly mineralized brines and to climate change. Large concentrations of CO2
date have been considered of no benet to kill ocean organisms and react with the water
humans. Saline aquifers have been used for
the storage of chemical waste. Saline aqui-
ONSHORE OFFSHORE
fers possess a large potential storage volume
and are commonly found. This will reduce CO2 CO2
the distance over which CO2 must be trans-
ported. Unfortunately, little is known of saline
aquifers and to maintain acceptable storage
costs (as there are no side products to offset
this cost) the geophysical exploration may be
limited, resulting in larger uncertainty about UNMANEABLE COAL SEAMS
dumping. Parties to the London Protocol have nology), the key risks are acknowledged and that
dened the conditions under which CO2 can CCS is part of a range of mitigation measures
be stored in sub-seabed geological formations as (Shackley et al, 2004).
noted above (IPCC, 2005a; WEC, 2007a). To support the development of CCS capac-
The G8 Summit of Gleneagles in 2005 man- ity in 2007, the EU adopted the European Tech-
dated the IEA and CSLF (Carbon Sequestration nology Platform for Zero-Emission Fossil Fuels
Leadership Forum) to submit recommenda- Power Plant (Zero Emissions Technology Plat-
tions to the G8 Summit in Japan in 2008. IEA form, ZETP) and started working on the design
pointed out that establishing legal and regulatory of a mechanism to stimulate the construction and
frameworks must be one of the priorities for the operation by 2015 of up to 12 large scale demon-
G8 community in order to promote CCS (IEA, stration CCS plants (EU Commission, undated).
2008). The Summit Leaders Declaration of G8
agreed to support IEA in developing a roadmap
for innovative technologies, including CCS, to
mitigate climate change. G8 also gave its support
Summary
to the development of 20 large-scale CCS dem-
The supply side of the energy system will con-
onstration projects globally by 2010, with a view
tinue to use fossil fuels for some time. Although
to beginning broad deployment of CCS by 2020 efciency improvements can be made, mak-
(G8, 2008, p31). ing signicant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions
is likely to require innovative approaches. CCS
and sequestration have a clear role in climate
EU context mitigation. This is even more the case if alter-
native sources to fossil fuels are not developed
A proposal for a directive on CCS was introduced sufciently to meet current and future needs.
in 2008 as part of the Commissions Climate Coal reserves are plentiful and the use of CCS
Change and Energy Package. This originated could mean that fossil fuels will continue to have
from an agreement reached in the European a signicant role in the energy mix, particularly
Council in March 2007 that the EU should aim in those parts of the world where coal reserves
for all fossil fuel power stations built beyond 2020 are plentiful. It could also see the reactivation of
to be equipped with CCS technology, subject to mining in countries such as the UK where this
the necessary technical, economic and regulatory activity has only recently ceased.
frameworks. The draft CCS Directive contains
proposals designed to take this forward. It requires
that all new combustion plants over 300MW have References
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Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 44, Tyndall WEC (2007b) Survey of Energy Resources, World
Centre for Climate Change Research, Manches- Energy Council, London. Available at: www.
ter UK. worldenergy.org/documents/ser2007_nal_
Stern, N. (2006) The Economics of Climate Change, online_version_1.pdf
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press World Coal Institute (undated) Carbon Capture and
Streck, C. and Scholz, S. M. (2006) The role of forests Storage. Available at: www.worldcoal.org/pages/
in global climate change: Whence we come and content/index.asp?PageID=414
6
Nuclear Energy
more energy is released in a nuclear reaction than 110. This means that these nuclei are the most
in a chemical reaction. It is this reaction that stable. It also indicates the two possible ways of
powers the nuclear reactor. releasing energy from the nucleus. Previously, we
The nucleus is composed of protons and discussed producing energy from nuclear ssion
neutrons, but the mass of a nucleus is always less where the process of creating stable nuclei results
than the sum of the individual masses of the pro- in mass being converted into energy. This occurs
tons and neutrons which constitute it.The differ- when materials that have a very high atomic mass
ence is a measure of the nuclear binding energy are used. The heavier the mass, the greater the
which holds the nucleus together. The difference yield. The left hand side of the graph shows that
in mass is known as the mass defect.When a high the binding energy curve is much steeper for
mass material such as uranium ssions, it creates nuclei with low mass numbers. Fusing two light
two lower-mass and more stable nuclei while los- nuclei together to form a nucleus will release
ing mass in the form of kinetic and/or radiant far greater levels of energy than that in the s-
energy. The amount of energy released can be sioning of a heavy nucleus. Although the fusion
determined from Einsteins equation that relates reaction has been achieved in the thermonuclear
energy and mass: or hydrogen bomb, fusion has not yet been har-
nessed in a controlled reaction suitable for power
E = mc2, generation. Progress to date will be discussed
later in this chapter.
where E is the energy, m is the mass and c is the As stated earlier, the amount of energy that
velocity of light. can be released by a nuclear reaction as opposed
The mass defect of a nucleus is the difference to the chemical reactions in combustion is greater
in mass between its separated components and its by orders of magnitude. Using Figure 6.1 we can
own mass. If m denotes the mass defect, calculate the energy output from a ssion reac-
tion.
m = (A Z)mn + Zmp M From the curve of the graph in Figure 6.1, a
nucleus with a mass number of 220 can be seen
where M is the mass of the nucleus, mn the mass of to have nucleons with an average binding energy
a neutron and mp the mass of a proton, expressed of 7.8MeV, while one with a mass number of
in mass units. 110 has an average binding energy per nucleon
When E = mc2 is used to convert the mass of 8.6MeV.
defect into an equivalent amount of energy, the If the heavy nucleus is split so that two of the
energy is the binding energy (BE) of the nucleus lighter nuclei are produced, the average binding
and will be given by: energy of the nucleons increases and there is an
energy release of:
BE (Joules) = mc2
(8.6 7.8) 220 = 176MeV
= [(A Z)mn + Zmp M]uc2
Obviously the exact amount of energy released,
(u is the unied mass unit = 1.66 1027kg). Or, which is predominantly the kinetic energy of the
it can be expressed in MeV using two lighter nuclei, depends on the mass of the
nucleus that is ssioned and the masses of the
BE (MeV) = 931 [(A Z)mn + Zmp M] nuclei which result. A gure of 200MeV per s-
sion is often used as a rough order of magnitude
The binding energies for a range of nuclei have when estimating the energy released in ssioning
been measured. The results are shown in Figure a large mass of material.This amount of energy is
6.1. The curve has a attish maximum over the equivalent to a mass loss of about 0.2 mass units
range of mass numbers from about 50 to about per ssion. Box 6.1 gives an example of estimating
Nuclear Energy 143
Fe
The "iron group" yield from
8 of isotopes are the nuclear fission
most tightly bound
2 Average mass
of fission fragments 235
is about 118. U
of uranium. The role of the neutron is important. tion multiplication constant. If k > 1 the reac-
As discussed earlier, the electromagnetic force tion is supercritical and the number of ssions
would mean that considerable kinetic energy increases with time; if k = 1 the reaction is criti-
would be needed to propel a proton into a cal and the reaction rate is constant; and if k < 1
nucleus and cause it to split, because of the repul- the reaction is sub-critical and the number of s-
sive effect. sions decreases with time. To produce a working,
For nuclear reactions involving the neutron, controllable nuclear reactor it must be possible
the problem of repulsion does not exist as the to initiate a chain reaction, allow the number of
neutron has no electric charge, it does not experi- nuclei involved per second to increase gradually
ence the repulsive force and can contact a nucleus until the ssion rate is sufcient to generate the
more easily. Fission reactions, and indeed all of the required power level and then to maintain this
major processes which need to be considered to rate steady. In the event of wanting to close down
understand nuclear reactors, involve the interac- the reactor, for example, for refuelling or to repair
tion of neutrons with nuclei. In essence the con- a fault, it must be possible to decrease the reac-
ditions inside a reactor need to ensure a supply of tion rate in a controlled fashion. Control of the
neutrons of the optimum kinetic energy for the reactor is achieved by controlling the number of
ssion of U-235 to take place at a reasonable rate. neutrons which are present in the core.
It must also be possible to maintain control of the
reactor by reducing or increasing the availability
of neutrons as necessary. The reactor core
When a neutron impacts U-235 a number of
ssion products are generated as well as a number There are a number of conditions that must be
of neutrons, typically 2.4 neutrons per reac- satised if a stable nuclear reactor is to be built.
tion. Provided that there are sufcient atoms of These are as follows.
U-235 in close proximity, the neutrons emitted
will interact with these atoms generating further 1 The core must contain sufcient ssionable
ssion products and neutrons. This is essentially material for a chain reaction of the required
the chain reaction that lies at the heart of nuclear magnitude to be maintained. This depends
power that produces the energy that is used to on the amount of U-235, the conguration
generate steam for electricity production. Chain of the core, the moderator and the coolant
reactions would not be achievable if, on average, (see below). Some reactors, for example, the
one or fewer ssion neutrons were produced per Magnox and Candu types, use natural ura-
ssion because inevitably some of them would nium as a fuel, others, for example, advanced
not interact with further U-235 nuclei. The s- gas cooled reactors (AGRs) and pressurized
sion neutrons can take part in all types of neu- water reactors (PWRs), use enriched ura-
tron reactions. In broad terms these neutrons are nium as a fuel. In enriched uranium the pro-
involved in three kinds of process. They either portion of U-235 is increased to around 3 per
leak out of the ssionable material and escape, are cent (reactor types are discussed later in this
absorbed by it or surrounding material to react in chapter). As the life of a fuel load progresses,
ways other than ssion, or are absorbed by U-235 some of the neutrons are absorbed by U-238
and provoke further ssions. If, on average, one in reactions which produce plutonium. U-
of the ssion neutrons produces a further ssion, 238 may also ssion occasionally.
the reaction is self-sustaining; if more than one 2 At least one ssion neutron from each s-
produces a further ssion the number of ssions sion event must produce a further ssion.
increases with time; and if less than one produces This depends on the factors mentioned in 1
a further ssion the number of ssions gradu- and on the prole, or reaction cross-section,
ally decreases with time. These three possibilities of U-235. Because the ssion neutrons can
are described by a factor, known as k, the reac- be energetic, they must be slowed down to
Nuclear Energy 145
Fuelling
machine
Steam
Cooling water
Condenser
Core
Boilers Feed
water
Gas
circulator
Pre-stressed
concrete vessel
This is a pressurized water reactor with individual contains two atoms of hydrogen and one of
fuel channels using ordinary water as its coolant oxygen. Most water is comprised of hydro-
and graphite as its moderator. It is very differ- gen/oxygen but a small percentage has
ent from most other power reactor designs as it another hydrogen isotope, deuterium and
was intended and used for both plutonium and oxygen. Deuterium differs from hydrogen by
power production. The combination of graph- having one neutron in the nucleus of each
ite moderator and water coolant is found in no atom.This is known as heavy water.The deu-
other power reactors. This is the design of the terium in heavy water is slightly more effec-
Chernobyl reactor. tive in slowing down the neutrons from the
ssion reactions, meaning that it can use nat-
ural uranium as the fuel. The Canadian style
Water reactors reactors of this type are commonly called
CANDU reactors.
Water reactors are the most common type of 2 Light Water Reactors: There are two types of
nuclear design throughout the world and it is the light water reactor. The rst is the boil-
based on the strategy that uses the same material ing water reactor (BWR). In this design the
as both moderator and coolant method. There water which passes over the reactor core to
are a number of types, falling into two main cat- act as moderator and coolant is also the steam
egories: source for the turbine. The disadvantage of
this is that any fuel leak might make the water
1 Heavy Water Reactors: the moderator and radioactive and that radioactivity would reach
coolant is heavy water. A molecule of water the turbine and the rest of the loop. The sec-
Nuclear Energy 147
Containment
Steam
Steam Generator
Control generator
rods Turbine
Feed
water
Core
Pump
Reactor
vessel
ond is the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). more fuel from otherwise non-ssionable iso-
The PWR design is based on US technol- topes. The most common breeding reaction is
ogy and is the most common reactor type that of plutonium-239 from non-ssionable ura-
used in the world (Figure 6.3). The reactor nium-238. The term fast breeder refers to the
is contained in a steel pressure vessel. Pres- types of congurations which can actually pro-
surized water, which acts as both moderator duce more ssionable fuel than they use, such as
and coolant, is pumped around the reactor the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder (LMFBR). This
and through the boilers. The pressure ves- scenario is possible because the non-ssionable
sel, boilers and connecting pipework form a uranium-238 is 140 times more abundant than
sealed primary pressurized circuit, which is the ssionable U-235 and can be efciently con-
contained within a steel-lined pre-stressed verted into Pu-239 by the neutrons from a ssion
concrete containment building, which also chain reaction.
acts as a biological shield. The remainder of The FBR was originally conceived to extend
the generation process is similar to that for the worlds uranium resources, and could do this
other power stations. by a factor of about 60. When those resources
were perceived to be scarce, several countries
embarked upon extensive FBR development
Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) programmes. However, signicant technical and
materials problems were encountered and also
Under appropriate operating conditions, the geological exploration showed by the 1970s that
neutrons given off by ssion reactions can breed scarcity was not going to be a concern for some
148 The Future of Energy Use
PWR US, France, Japan, 264 250.5 enriched UO2 water water
Russia
BWR US, Japan, Sweden 94 86.4 enriched UO2 water water
PHWR CANDU Canada 43 23.6 natural UO2 heavy water heavy water
AGR & Magnox UK 18 10.8 natural U (metal), CO2 graphite
enriched UO2
RBMK Russia 12 12.3 enriched UO2 water graphite
FBR Japan, France, Russia4 1.0 PuO2 and UO2 liquid sodium none
Other Russia 4 0.05 enriched UO2 water graphite
Total 439 384.6
GWe = capacity in thousands of megawatts (gross)
time. As a result of these two factors, it was clear a standardized design for each type to expe-
by the 1980s that FBRs would not be com- dite licensing, reduce capital cost and reduce
mercially competitive with existing light water construction time;
reactors. Although there has been progress on a simpler and more rugged design, making
the technical front, the economics of FBRs still them easier to operate and less vulnerable to
depend on the value of the plutonium fuel which operational upsets;
is bred, relative to the cost of fresh uranium. Also higher availability and longer operating life
there is international concern over the disposal of typically 60 years;
ex-military plutonium, and there are proposals to reduced possibility of core melt accidents;
use fast reactors for this purpose (WNA, 2008d). resistance to serious damage that would allow
In both respects the technology is important to radiological release from an aircraft impact;
long-term considerations of world energy sus- higher burn-up to reduce fuel use and the
tainability and there have been calls for a more amount of waste;
concerted approach to FNR technology and the burnable absorbers (poisons) to extend fuel
associated reprocessing issues (American Nuclear life.
Society, 2005).
Although there is considerable research inter- The greatest departure from second-genera-
est in this technology, it is likely that the price of tion designs is that many incorporate passive or
uranium fuel will be a key determinant. This is inherent safety features which require no active
rising at present, but there is no global shortage controls or operational intervention to avoid
of fuel.Table 6.1 shows the distribution of reactor accidents in the event of malfunction, and may
types in commercial use throughout the world.
rely on gravity, natural convection or resistance
to high temperatures.
Many of this new generation are evolution-
New ssion technologies ary designs, for example, the advanced boiling
water reactor (ABWR) derived from a Gen-
Since 1996 research and development has con- eral Electric design which builds on experience
tinued into what are termed third-generation from the LWRs. In Europe several designs are
reactors. Third-generation reactors have: being developed to meet the European Utility
Nuclear Energy 149
temperature of the plasma to about 10 million for construction, and 20 for operation, and cost
degrees Celsius. approximately 10 billion. ITER is designed to
The most promising design for magnetic produce approximately 500MW of fusion power
connement has been the tokamak. The Joint sustained for up to 1000 seconds (compared to
European Torus (JET) is the largest tokamak JETs peak of 16MW for less than one second)
operating in the world today. It is located at by the fusion of about 0.5g of a deuterium/tri-
Culham in Oxfordshire, UK. Experiments have tium (D-T) mixture in its approximately 840m3
been conducted there since 1983. To date up to reactor chamber. Although ITER is expected to
16MW of fusion power for one second has been produce (in the form of heat) 510 times more
achieved in D-T plasmas using the device. JET energy than the amount consumed to heat up
conducts many experiments to study different the plasma to fusion temperatures, the generated
heating schemes and other techniques. JET has heat will not be used to generate any electricity.
been very successful in operating remote han- Inertial connement (ICF) is a newer line
dling techniques in a radioactive environment to of research. In this method laser or ion beams
modify the interior of the device and has shown are focused very precisely onto the surface of a
that the remote handling maintenance of fusion target, which is a sphere of D-T ice, a few mil-
devices is realistic. limetres in diameter. This evaporates or ionizes
In 2006 an international partnership of the the outer layer of the material to form a plasma
EU, the US, Russia, Japan, South Korea and China crown which expands, generating an inward-
agreed to develop a research project to investigate moving compression front or implosion which
nuclear fusion. The project called ITER (Inter- heats up the inner layers of material. The core or
national Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) central hot spot of the fuel may be compressed to
is being constructed at Cadarache in France. The one thousand times its liquid density, and ignition
programme is anticipated to last for 30 years, 10 occurs when the core temperature reaches about
152 The Future of Energy Use
(Chernobyl Forum, 2005). It was rst thought 1 Genetic: risks of radiation exposure to the
that there would be a greater loss of life. reproductive organs that can be passed on to
However, others dispute the ndings of the progeny.
Chernobyl Forum, claiming that the gures 2 Somatic: effects caused if radiation strikes, and
could be higher. In response to the Chernobyl damages, molecules of living matter, perhaps
Forum, The Other Report on Chernobyl (TORCH) causing a cell to grow in an abnormal man-
was produced on behalf of the European Greens. ner and eventually being manifest as cancer.
It predicted 30,00060,000 excess cancer deaths, Not all cancers are associated with exposure
and urged more research, stating that large uncer- to radiation. The risk of dying from radiation
tainties made it difcult to properly assess the full induced cancer is about one half the risk of
scale of the disaster (Fairlie and Sumner, 2006). getting the cancer.
In short, it is unlikely that we will ever know 3 In-utero: spontaneous risks of foetal abnor-
that real impact of Chernobyl on human health. malities. The risk of childhood cancer from
However, the accident and the conicting reports exposure in-utero is about the same as the
in its aftermath do serve to highlight the great risk to adults exposed to radiation. By far,
levels of uncertainty and the fear that many have medical practice is the largest source of in-
of the nuclear industry.The reality is that radiation utero radiation exposure (USNRC, 2003).
is a natural phenomenon which occurs widely, at
low levels, in nature. Soil is radioactive, houses The damage potential of radiation is a function
are radioactive, people are radioactive and food of the level and length of the exposure. Box 6.3
is radioactive. Cereals have a comparatively high discusses how radiation is measured.
radioactive content, as do Brazil nuts; whereas Knowledge of radiation effects has been
milk, fruit and vegetables have a low content. derived from groups of people who have received
Evolution has occurred in the presence of this high doses. There is an assumption in setting
background of radiation. In addition to the natu- radiation protection standards that any dose of
ral background, human activity has introduced radiation, no matter how small, involves a possi-
more radiation, principally due to the diagnostic ble risk to human health. However, available sci-
use of X-rays and the use of radionuclides in the entic evidence does not indicate any cancer risk
treatment of cancer. Figure 6.4 shows sources of or immediate effects at doses below 100mSv a
radiation. year. At low levels of exposure, the bodys natural
Concern about the use of nuclear power repair mechanisms seem to be adequate to repair
arises from the knowledge that nuclear radia- radiation damage to cells soon after it occurs.
tion can harm living tissue.The effects are usually Table 6.4 sets out some comparative radiation
considered in three categories: doses and their effects.
Medicine 14%
Nuclear industry 1%
Buildings/Soil 18%
Cosmic 14%
Natural
Radon 42%
Radiation 85%
Food/Drinking
Water 11%
One curie was originally the activity of one gram of radium-226, and represents 3.7 1010 disinte-
grations per second (Bq).
Even so, the radiation protection community determining radiation dose standards, recognizing
conservatively assumes that any amount of radia- that the model may over estimate radiation risk
tion may pose some risk for causing cancer and (USNRC, 2004).
hereditary effect, and that the risk is higher for Epidemiological studies of the survivors of
higher radiation exposures. A linear, no-thresh- the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
old (LNT) doseresponse relationship is used show that high levels of exposure, ranging up to
to describe the relationship between radiation more than 5000mSv do increase the death rate
dose and the occurrence of cancer. This dose from cancer above levels that would be normally
response model suggests that any increase in dose, found in any population. The assumption in the
no matter how small, results in an incremental LNT hypothesis is that the linear relationship
increase in risk. The LNT risk model is shown in between exposure and risk is true for lower levels
Figure 6.5. The LNT hypothesis is accepted by of exposure.
the United States Nuclear Regulatory Com- There has been extensive research into
mission (USNRC) as a conservative model for the effects of low-level radiation and to date a
Nuclear Energy 155
Dose Effect
2mSv/year Typical background radiation experienced by everyone (av 1.5 mSv in Australia, 3 mSv in
North America).
1.52.0mSv/year Average dose to Australian uranium miners, above background and medical.
2.4mSv/year Average dose to US nuclear industry employees.
up to 5mSv/year Typical incremental dose for aircrew in middle latitudes.
9mSv/year Exposure by airline crew ying the New YorkTokyo polar route.
10mSv/year Maximum actual dose to Australian uranium miners.
20mSv/year Current limit (averaged) for nuclear industry employees and uranium miners.
50mSv/yea Former routine limit for nuclear industry employees. It is also the dose rate which arises
from natural background levels in several places in Iran, India and Europe.
100mSv/year Lowest level at which any increase in cancer is clearly evident. Above this, the probability of
cancer occurrence (rather than the severity) increases with dose.
350mSv/lifetime Criterion for relocating people after Chernobyl accident.
1000mSv/cumulative Would probably cause a fatal cancer many years later in 5 of every 100 persons exposed
to it (i.e. if the normal incidence of fatal cancer were 25%, this dose would increase it to
30%).
1000mSv/single dose Causes (temporary) radiation sickness such as nausea and decreased white blood cell count,
but not death. Above this, severity of illness increases with dose.
5000mSv/single dose Would kill about half those receiving it within a month.
10,000mSv/single dose Fatal within a few weeks.
Source: WNA, 2007b
Proliferation
RISK
Nuclear power is often associated with nuclear
proliferation. Nuclear proliferation is a term now
used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons,
ssile material, and weapons-applicable nuclear
technology and information, to nations which
0 DOSE
are not recognized as nuclear weapon States by
Source: USNRC, 2003 the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear
Weapons, also known as the Nuclear Nonprolif-
Figure 6.5 Linear no-threshold risk model eration Treaty or NPT.
Globally the nuclear sector is regulated
through the IAEA (International Atomic Energy
number of ndings have failed to support the Agency). The IAEA was set up by unanimous
LNT hypothesis.The causal relationship between resolution of the United Nations in 1957 to
the body and its response to low-level exposure help nations develop nuclear energy for peace-
156 The Future of Energy Use
The ten countries with the highest reliance sector has recently increased, primarily for two
on nuclear power in 2006 were: France, 78.1 reasons.
per cent; Lithuania, 72.3 per cent; Slovakia, The rst is that, at the point of production,
57.2 per cent; Belgium, 54.4 per cent; Sweden, nuclear generation does not produce greenhouse
48.0 per cent; Ukraine, 47.5 per cent; Bulgaria, gases. However, it is not carbon free over the
43.6 per cent; Armenia, 42.0 per cent; Slovenia whole lifecycle. For example, the energy used
40.3 per cent; and Republic of Korea 38.6 per to extract, process and transport the fuel and the
cent. energy embedded in the buildings and structures
In North America, where 121 reactors supply needed for power stations and storage facili-
19 per cent of electricity in the US and 16 per ties, will have both used and embedded energy
cent in Canada, the number of operating reactors derived from fossil fuels. The second reason is
has increased in the last three years due to recon- that the availability of fuel increases energy secu-
nection of two long-term shutdown reactor units rity by diversifying the supply chain.
in Canada (Bruce-3 in 2004 and Pickering-1 in
2005) and one in the US (Browns Ferry-1 in
2007).
In Western Europe, with 130 reactors, overall The EU and nuclear power
capacity has declined by 1966GWe because of the
shutdown of 11 ageing reactor units. In Eastern Europe has a mature nuclear industry. Countries
Europe the same number of shutdowns and new such as France produce some 75 per cent of elec-
grid connections (4) resulted in an unchanged tricity from nuclear reactors. However, historically
number of operating units (68). In Asia, with a there has been considerable public opposition
total of 111 reactors at present, the number of to nuclear power, particularly in Germany and
operating reactors has increased by 10 since the Sweden. But more recently public opinion has
beginning of 2004 (WEC, 2007a). shifted and in those countries that have imple-
Despite continued concern about nuclear mented nuclear phase out programmes support
power, for example, with the recent problems for nuclear power is still quite strong (Sweden 62
around proliferation involving North Korea and per cent, Germany 46 per cent, Belgium 50 per
Iran and worries that nuclear materials could be cent). Since 2005 support for nuclear power has
used by terrorists to produce a dirty bomb (a grown with 44 per cent in favour compared to
dirty bomb is one where conventional explosives 45 per cent against. In 2005, 37 per cent were in
are used to scatter nuclear materials making the favour and 55 per cent against. Although waste
area effected unusable if deployed in a city, for remains a concern, four out of ten would change
example, this would probably lead to it having to their mind if an effective solution were found,
be abandoned) interest in expanding the nuclear giving a majority of 61 per cent of EU citizens in
158 The Future of Energy Use
Country Capacity Units Per cent Country Capacity Unit Per cent
MWe number electricity MWe number electricity
Argentina 935 2 6.9 Mexico 1310 2 5.0
Armenia 376 1 42.7 Netherlands 449 1 3.9
Belgium 5801 7 55.6 Pakistan 425 2 2.8
Brazil 1901 2 2.5 Romania 655 1 9.3
Bulgaria 2722 4 44.1 Russian Fed. 21,743 31 15.8
Canada 12,500 18 15.0 Slovak Rep. 2460 6 56.1
China 6572 9 2.0 Slovenia 656 1 42.4
Czech Rep. 3368 6 30.5 South Africa 1800 2 4.9
Finland 2696 4 32.9 Spain 7588 9 19.6
France 63,363 59 78.3 Sweden 8961 10 46.6
Germany 20,303 17 31.0 Switzerland 3220 5 38.0
Hungary 1755 4 37.2 Taiwan 4904 6 17.7
India 3040 15 2.8 Ukraine 13,107 15 48.5
Japan 47,839 56 29.3 UK 12,144 23 19.0
Korea, Rep. 16,810 20 44.7 US 99,988 104 19.3
Lithuania 1185 1 69.6
Region Region
Africa 1800 2 South America 2836 4
North America 113,798 124 Asia 79,996 109
Europe 172,176 204 World 370,576 443
Source: Adapted from WEC, 2007b, p250
favour of nuclear power compared to 57 per cent The EU, in its Energy Policy for Europe, sup-
in 2005. The reasons for this shift lie in the more ports nuclear power. Many states have opted to
open debate that has taken place, leading people extend the life of existing reactors and others,
to feel better informed about nuclear issues; for such as Finland, are developing new capacity.The
example: UK has also decided to develop new capacity on
existing sites and Italy has announced it will re-
64 per cent of EU citizens believe that nuclear commence its nuclear programme. This recent
energy enables European countries to diver- interest is driven by climate and energy security
sify their energy sources; concerns. But there are issues around security
63 per cent believe that using more nuclear associated with nuclear power plants that typi-
energy would help reduce Europes depend- cally are not associated with conventional power
ency upon oil; plants. Security costs could become prohibitive.
62 per cent agree that one of the main advan- Little research has been done into the long-term
tages of nuclear energy is that it produces less terrorist threat and nuclear power stations.
greenhouse gas emissions than coal and oil. Other potential problems relate to climate
change. Nuclear plants (as do other types of con-
In general the survey shows that levels of aware- ventional power stations) require considerable
ness are rising, but, on average, EU citizens do amounts of cooling water. For example, in 2003
not feel well informed about the nuclear issue many reactors in France were threatened by a lack
and radioactive waste in particular (Eurobarom- of cooling water as river ows dropped. Some
eter, 2008). plants had to shut down and others were given
Nuclear Energy 159
an exceptional exemption from legal require- 14 units (8.4GWe) and 8 units (2.3GWe) the
ments to return water to the water course at a advanced gas cooled (AGR) and the gas cooled
temperature that does not exceed environmental (GCR) type reactors come in third and fourth
safety limits. Six nuclear reactors and a number of position respectively. The gas cooled reactors are
conventional power stations were granted these operated solely in the UK (WEC, 2007c).
exemptions. The nuclear power plants of Saint-
Alban (Isre), Golfech (Tarn-et-Garonne), Cruas
(Ardche), Nogent-sur-Seine (Aube), Tricastin
(Drme) and Bugey (Ain) continued functioning,
The economics of nuclear
although the upper legal limits were exceeded power
(UNEP, 2003).
Other long-term climate problems such as The issue of the cost of nuclear power is fraught
sea-level rise could be an issue for plants that with difculty.This is an important issue as plants,
are located near to the sea, for example, Sizewell once built, will operate for many years and will
B in the UK. A study by Middlesex University need to recoup the investment made in them.
Flood Hazard Research Centre commissioned by There are a number of areas to consider; these
Greenpeace into the nuclear plants at Bradwell, are shown in Figure 6.7 and discussed below:
Dungeness, Hinkley Point and Sizewell found
them to be very vulnerable to the threat of sea- 1 Capital costs: this is the actual cost of the plant,
level rise and storm surges. All four sites have land, infrastructure, fees, etc. and is termed
been identied as candidates for replacement the overnight cost that is the cost at todays
nuclear plants (Greenpeace, 2007). prices if the plant were built in one night.
In its latest publication Energy Policy for In reality the build time can be ten years or
Europe published in January 2007, the European more. Capital costs can vary considerably, for
Commission stressed that nuclear power produc- example, if the plant is a replacement plant
tion must be considered as an option to reduce on an existing site, then the costs of land and
CO2 emissions and to meet the targets of the infrastructure will not be included, meaning
Kyoto protocol. In 2004, there were 148 nuclear this is likely to be lower. If it is a greeneld
power reactors in operation in the EU member site, the costs could be very high.
states, with a total net capacity of 131 Gigawatts 2 Financing costs: this is the cost associated with
(GWe). France has the highest number with 58 nancing the capital costs. In effect, money
units (63.4GWe), followed by the UK with 23 would have to be borrowed to nance the
units (11.9GWe) and Germany with 18 units project before it produces any power and
(20.3GWe). Nuclear power is used for electricity starts to generate an income. This can be as
production in 13 of the 25 EU member states. high as 50 per cent or more of the project
The majority of nuclear reactors, which cost and will depend on the debtequity ratio
comprise 107 units, are the pressurized light and the rate of interest on the debt.
water type (PWR), with an absolute capacity 3 Operating costs: these are the costs associated
of 103GWe, which accounts for 79 per cent of with operating and maintaining the plant,
the total nuclear power in the EU. This type of fuel costs, a return for investors and an ele-
reactor is used in all the EU member states apart ment to generate funds for decommissioning.
from Lithuania where the LWGR type reactor 4 Operational waste and spent fuel management:
is exclusively operated. The boiling light water these are the costs associated with the safe
reactor (BWR) has the second largest quota with disposal of waste materials from the opera-
18 units and a capacity of 16.3GWe. The BWR tional phase of the station.
generates approximately 12 per cent of the total 5 Decommissioning and long-term storage: these are
nuclear power in the EU and is operated through- the costs associated with closing the plant and
out Sweden, Germany, Spain and Finland. With storing the radioactive waste.
160 The Future of Energy Use
Operational waste
& sport fuel Decommissioning
management Operating &
2% maintenance
2%
Fuel 25%
13%
Capital &
financing
58%
Figure 6.7 An overview of the key components of the generating costs of nuclear energy
Establishing a clear cost prole is important. In interest rate or the amount charged to borrow
general, for conventional power stations the cost the capital. Nuclear costs were highest by far in
of fuel is important. For example, coal and gas, Japan. Nuclear is comfortably cheaper than coal
the predominant fuel for electricity generation, in seven of ten countries, and cheaper than gas in
have been rising in price. Further, the concern all but one. At a 10 per cent discount rate nuclear
about the greenhouse gas content of these fuels, was 35 cents/kWh (except Japan: near 7 cents,
ignored in the calculation of the cost of power and The Netherlands), and capital becomes 70
produced, has led in Europe to these plants being per cent of power cost, instead of the 50 per cent
included in the EU ETS, meaning that prices with a 5 per cent discount rate. Here, nuclear is
could rise further. Conventional stations do not
have some of the costs that are associated with
nuclear power, such as decommissioning. Com- Table 6.6 OECD electricity generating cost projec-
parisons are therefore not straightforward. tions for year 2010 at a 5 per cent discount rate
A 2005 OECD comparative study showed
that nuclear power had increased its competitive-
ness over the previous seven years. The principal Country Nuclear Coal Gas
changes since 1998 were increased nuclear plant Finland 2.76 3.64
capacity factors and rising gas prices. The study France 2.54 3.33 3.92
did not factor in any costs for carbon emissions Germany 2.86 3.52 4.90
from fossil fuel generators, and focused on over Switzerland 2.88 4.36
100 plants able to come on line in 20102015, Netherlands 3.58 6.04
including 13 nuclear plants. Nuclear overnight Czech Rep. 2.30 2.94 4.97
construction costs ranged from US$1000/kW in Slovakia 3.13 4.78 5.59
the Czech Republic to $2500/kW in Japan, and Romania 3.06 4.55
averaged $1500/kW. Coal plants were costed at Japan 4.80 4.95 5.21
$10001500/kW, gas plants $5001000/kW and Korea 2.34 2.16 4.65
wind capacity $10001500/kW.These gures are US 3.01 2.71 4.67
shown in Table 6.6. Canada 2.60 3.11 4.00
At a 5 per cent discount rate nuclear, coal and US 2003 cents/kWh, discount rate 5 per cent, 40 year lifetime, 85 per cent load
gas costs are as shown in Table 6.6 and wind is factor.
around 8 cents. Note that the discount rate is the Source: OECD/IEA NEA, 2005
Nuclear Energy 161
again cheaper than coal in 8 of 12 countries and need maintenance and re-fuelling. The load fac-
cheaper than gas in all but 2. Among the tech- tors for wind turbines are determined by the pre-
nologies analysed for the report, the new EPR, if vailing wind conditions. Typically they can range
built, in Germany would deliver power at about from 20 to 30 per cent. For nuclear, long-term
2.38c/kWh the lowest cost of any plant in the contracts with predictable prices offer the best
study. scenario. But in the UK for example, the elec-
Many dispute that nuclear stations can com- tricity market, requires much shorter contract
pete with other sources. For example, a number times. This could be problematic and, for nuclear
of studies suggest that the overnight cost per KW to achieve the most optimal load factor, special
for nuclear stations is very much higher than for market conditions will be needed.
other fuels. A study in the US by the Keystone There are two further areas that need to be
Center, which was funded by several nuclear considered in costing nuclear power: waste stor-
plant operators as well as other interested par- age and decommissioning.
ties such as General Electric, estimates overnight
costs of $2950/kWe (in 2007 dollars).With inter-
est, this gure translates to between $3600/kWe Nuclear waste
and $4000/kWe (The Keystone Center, 2007).
Other commentators suggest that these gures Radioactive wastes are waste types that con-
may be too low with nal construction costs in tain radioactive chemical elements that have no
real 2007 dollars in the range of $43004550/ practical purpose. Radioactive waste typically
kWe (Harding, 2007). comprises a number of radioisotopes. These are
In a report commissioned for the Greens- unstable congurations of elements that decay,
EFA Group of the European parliament cites emitting ionizing radiation that can be harmful
Moodys, a US-based capital market service com- to human health and to the environment. Those
pany, gave a low estimate for new nuclear capac- isotopes emit different types and levels of radia-
ity in the US at $5,000/kW and its high estimate tion, which last for different periods of time.
was $6,000/kW. Some of the reasons for this are The management and disposal of spent
higher material and labour costs. It is likely that nuclear fuel remains a challenge for the nuclear
there will continue to be a range of uncertainty power industry. In the nuclear cycle there are two
for the capital or overnight price, particularly phases where waste is produced while producing
if demand rises rapidly compared to supply, in usable fuel for reactors. The rst is related to the
which case it is possible the overnight prices may production of fuel for the reactors, this is called
rise further (Schneider and Froggart, 2007). front end waste; the second is waste that is gener-
Couple this to the uncertainties in the glo- ated from the ssion process, this is spent fuel and
bal nancial markets, and borrowing capital to is called back end waste. Globally some 12,000
nance the projects may also be high cost. Given tonnes of spent nuclear fuel are produced every
the high proportion of the costs, up to 70 per year (WEC, 2007b).
cent, then arguably the costs of servicing the There are three categories of nuclear waste
capital of a nuclear power plant over its lifetime associated with nuclear power stations; low, inter-
is the most sensitive parameter to overall costs mediate and high. Nuclear power stations are not
(Postnote, 2003). the only source of nuclear waste. It is generated in
The load factor is another determinant of hospitals and industry as well as in the processing
the cost effectiveness of different energy sources. of uranium ore (uranium mill tailings). However,
The most effective operating mode for nuclear the costs associated with nuclear power have to
power stations is base load. This is where the sta- be related to the overall cost of a nuclear station
tion operates at maximum rated output.Typically (IAEA, 1997).
load factors for nuclear stations are around 85 per The safe treatment of waste is a crucial fac-
cent. This recognizes that at times the station will tor in the nuclear industry. In 1997 the IAEA
162 The Future of Energy Use
developed the Joint Convention on the Safety High level waste (HLW)
of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of
Radioactive Waste Management (IAEA, 1997). This is perhaps the most controversial area in
This came into force for signatories in 2001. In waste disposal from nuclear plants, with no obvi-
December 2007 there were 42 signatories to the ous solution. High level waste (HLW) is highly
Convention. A full list is available at: www.iaea. radioactive, contains long lived radioactivity and
org/Publications/Documents/Conventions/ generates a considerable amount of heat. Storage
jointconv_status.pdf. solutions involve disposal in underground sites
Effectively the Convention helps to establish that have been specially prepared for that pur-
guidelines for the safe management of materials pose.
dened to be radioactive waste by appropriate LLW and ILW account for 90 per cent by
national authorities. Note that the responsibility volume of radioactive waste generated and con-
for waste disposal is the responsibility of those tain about 1 per cent of the total radioactivity.
nations that produce the waste. The IAEA has HLW accounts for 10 per cent by volume of
established criteria for dening different levels of radioactive waste generated and contains about
wastes with suggested disposal options as shown 99 per cent of the total radioactivity.This includes
in Table 6.7. Note, however, that typically classi- ssion products and spent fuel. Fission products,
cations are determined by national governments. residual waste that occurs from reprocessing, are
rst extracted in liquid form (after acid has dis-
solved them). They are then stored in stainless
Low level waste (LLW) steel tanks that have cooling systems. The prod-
ucts transform into solids and are incorporated
This comprises paper, rags, tools, clothing, l-
into solid blocks of borosilicate glass (also known
ters, etc., which contain small amounts of mostly
as vitrication).
short lived radioactivity. Commonly, LLW is des-
Spent fuel can be packaged in containers
ignated as such as a precautionary measure if it
made of steel or concrete for shielding purposes.
originated from any region of an Active Area,
It must be stored underwater or in a space with a
which frequently includes ofces where there is
cooling system; the heat the fuel generates needs
only a remote possibility of being contaminated
to be removed. There is usually a cooling period
with radioactive materials. Such LLW typically
of 2050 years before removal of the spent fuel
exhibits no higher radioactivity than one would
from the reactor site and its long-term disposal.
expect from the same material disposed of in a
non-active area, such as a normal ofce block.
Some high activity LLW requires shielding during
handling and transport but most LLW is suitable Long-term storage
for shallow land burial. To reduce its volume, it is
often compacted or incinerated before disposal. Currently waste is incinerated, compacted, encap-
sulated or goes through the process of vitrica-
tion. Spent fuel is also reprocessed to achieve two
Intermediate level waste (ILW) objectives:
Intermediate-level waste (ILW) contains higher the recovery of reusable materials, uranium
amounts of radioactivity and does require shield- and plutonium, which reduces the need for
ing in the form of lead, concrete or water. It is natural uranium extraction;
further categorized into short lived and long the reduction of waste toxicity and volumes.
lived. The former is dealt with in a similar way to
LLW and the latter to HLW. Reprocessing reduces waste volume by 80 per
cent. A long-term option that is being looked
Nuclear Energy 163
into by many countries is geological disposal. until a repository site is selected (WEC, 2007b).
This involves disposing waste in rock, clay or salt There are many uncertainties about deep
5001000m deep. The waste is rst immobilized geological storage as little is understood about
through the process of encapsulation or vitrica- the impacts of storing radioactive materials for
tion, then sealed in a canister made from stain- very long periods.The IAEA reports a number of
less steel or copper (which is corrosion resistant) research projects that have been trying to model
and nally buried in one of the three geological the capacity of different storage strategies, for
structures. The nal disposal of HLW is regulated example, embodiment in glass and ceramics, to
by governments with the support of the nuclear immobilize waste in deep geologic storage sites.
industry. Examples of geological repositories are The report nds that this type of investigation is
Olkiluoto in Finland and Yucca Mountain in far from being nished (IAEA, 2007).
Nevada, US. Nuclear waste is the responsibility of national
The most developed programmes for deep governments. One problem for deep geologic
geological storage are those of Finland, Sweden storage is nding geological formations that
and the US. None is likely to have a repository in will remain stable for a long time many thou-
operation much earlier than 2020. In France new sands of years. The IAEA supports the concept
legislation on spent-fuel management and waste of waste storage in other countries, principally
disposal, which established spent-fuel reprocess- because many parts of the world do not have
ing and recycling of usable materials as French suitable geological conditions for deep storage.
policy, also established deep-geologic disposal as A major research programme in the 1990s by
the reference solution for high-level long-lived Pangea Resources has identied Australia, south-
radioactive waste. The legislation sets goals of ern Africa, Argentina and western China as hav-
applying for a licence for a reversible deep geo- ing the appropriate geological credentials for a
logical repository by 2015 and of opening the deep geological repository, with Australia being
facility by 2025. In 2006, the UKs Committee favoured on economic and political grounds. It
on Radioactive Waste Management concluded would be located where the geology has been
that the best disposal option for the UK is deep stable for several hundred million years, so that
geological disposal, with robust interim storage there need not be total reliance on a robust engi-
164 The Future of Energy Use
neered barrier system to keep the waste securely Safe Enclosure (or Safestor): This option
isolated for thousands of years. postpones the nal removal of controls for a
For a number of reasons Western Australia longer period, usually in the order of 4060
was judged the most suitable location. After con- years. The facility is placed into a safe storage
sideration, the Western Australian parliament conguration until the eventual dismantling
passed a Bill to make it illegal to dispose of for- and decontamination activities occur.
eign high-level waste in the state without specic Entombment: This option entails placing the
parliamentary approval. Russia has passed legis- facility into a condition that will allow the
lation to allow the import of high-level wastes, remaining on-site radioactive material to
but appears unlikely to proceed with this. The remain on-site without the requirement of
European Commission has funded studies to ever removing it totally. This option usually
assess the feasibility of European regional waste involves reducing the size of the area where
repositories (WNA, 2006b). the radioactive material is located and then
It seems unlikely that international reposi- encasing the facility in a long lived structure
tories for nuclear waste will be developed for such as concrete, that will last for a period of
the foreseeable future. In the interim national time to ensure the remaining radioactivity is
schemes will have to be developed and the costs no longer of concern. (Source: Reisenweaver
associated with these will become part of the and Laraia, 2000; NEI, 2007)
economics of nuclear energy.
There is no right or wrong method for decommis-
sioning. Table 6.8 shows some of the approaches
used to decommission nuclear stations. This list is
Decommissioning by no means denitive but what it does show is
that considerable experience is being gained in
The IAEA denes decommissioning as: the actual process of closing and dismantling old
nuclear stations.
Administrative and technical actions Decommissioning accounts for some 2 per
taken to allow the removal of some cent of the overall costs of a nuclear station.
or all of the regulatory controls from Although this may be a small proportion of the
a facility. This does not apply to a overall cost, it does represent a considerable sum
repository or to certain nuclear facili- of money and has to be factored into the overall
ties used for mining and milling of cost model of a nuclear station. Typically the cost
radioactive materials, for which closure of decommissioning is the responsibility of the
is used. (IAEA, 2003, 4.12) owner or operator, although there is no single
mechanism for funding decommissioning. Typi-
The IAEA has dened three options for decom- cal mechanisms are:
missioning, the denitions of which have been
internationally adopted: Prepayment, where money is deposited in a
separate account to cover decommissioning
Immediate Dismantling (or Early Site Release/ costs even before the plant begins operation.
Decon in the US): This option allows for the This may be done in a number of ways but
facility to be removed from regulatory control the funds cannot be withdrawn other than for
relatively soon after shutdown or termination decommissioning purposes.
of regulated activities. Usually, the nal dis- External sinking fund (Nuclear Power Levy):
mantling or decontamination activities begin This is built up over the years from a percent-
within a few months or years, depending on age of the electricity rates charged to con-
the facility. Following removal from regula- sumers. Proceeds are placed in a trust fund
tory control, the site is then available for re-use. outside the utilitys control. This is the main
Nuclear Energy 165
Magnox reactors. Most is then converted into treating all used fuel as waste). The uranium from
uranium hexauoride, ready for the enrichment reprocessing, which typically contains a slightly
plant. Natural uranium contains two isotopes of higher concentration of U-235 than occurs in
which a small fraction (0.7 per cent) is the s- nature, can be reused as fuel after conversion and
sile uranium 235 (U-235) which is capable of enrichment, if necessary. The plutonium can be
undergoing ssion, the process by which energy directly made into mixed oxide (MOX) fuel, in
is produced in a nuclear reactor. The remainder which uranium and plutonium oxides are com-
is uranium 238 (U-238). Enrichment produces a bined. In reactors that use MOX fuel, plutonium
higher concentration, typically between 3.5 per substitutes for the U-235 in normal uranium
cent and 5 per cent of U-235, by removing over oxide fuel (WNA, 2008a; BNFL, 2003/4).
85 per cent of the U-238. There are two enrich-
ment processes in large scale commercial use,
each of which uses uranium hexauoride as feed:
gaseous diffusion and gas centrifuge. They both
Nuclear resources
use the physical properties of molecules, speci-
Climate and energy security concerns have gen-
cally the 1 per cent mass difference, to separate
erated fresh interest in nuclear power. In addition
the isotopes. The product of this stage of the
the very steep increases in the price of fossil fuels
nuclear fuel cycle is enriched uranium hexauo-
impacts the costs of electricity to the consumer.
ride, which is reconverted to produce enriched
For example, a doubling of international prices
uranium oxide.
translates into generation cost increases of about
The uranium oxide is processed in various ways
3545 per cent for coal red electricity and 70
to produce the fuel pellets for the reactors. The
80 per cent for natural gas. In contrast, a doubling
type of fuel varies depending on the type of reac-
of uranium prices increases nuclear generating
tor in which it is used. For example, the LWRs,
costs by only about 5 per cent. This interest in
used throughout the world, use a type of oxide
nuclear generation has impacted the uranium
fuel, uranium dioxide, in the form of pellets. The
market where prices have risen signicantly in
uranium dioxide fuel pellets are then stacked
recent years as shown in Figure 6.8.
inside zirconium alloy fuel tubes. The tubes are
The world uranium market has had to adjust
grouped together to form a fuel assembly. For
rapidly to this change in expectations which has
example, the fuel assembly for Sizewell B in the
led to a position where the market has had to
UK is made up of 264 zirconium alloy tubes,
catch up with demand, as shown in Figure 6.9.
each containing about 300 pellets.
This has led to an expansion in exploration and
mine development with expenditure on explo-
ration increasing fourfold between 2001 and
Reprocessing 2006. According to the World Energy Coun-
cil uranium resources are plentiful and pose no
Spent fuel is about 95 per cent U-238 but it also constraint on future nuclear power development
contains about 1 per cent U-235 that has not s- (WEC, 2007b). Table 6.9 shows global resources
sioned, about 1 per cent plutonium and 3 per for uranium.
cent ssion products, which are highly radioac- Table 6.9 is based on proven or reasonably
tive, with other transuranic elements formed in assured resources and inferred resources. These
the reactor. Reprocessing separates the spent fuel are dened as:
into its three components: uranium, plutonium
and waste, containing ssion products. Reproc- Proved reserves: correspond to the NEA cate-
essing enables recycling of the uranium and gory Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR),
plutonium into fresh fuel and produces a signi- and refer to recoverable uranium that occurs
cantly reduced amount of waste (compared with in known mineral deposits of delineated size,
Nuclear Energy 167
60
40
20
0
72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
80 000
Reactor requirements
Table 6.9 Known recoverable resources of uranium
70 000
(tonnes U, per cent of world)
60 000
50 000
Country Tonnes U Per cent
tU
40 000
of world
30 000
Uranium production
20 000 Australia 1,143,000 24
10 000 Kazakhstan , 816,000 17
Canada ,444,000 9
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
US ,342,000 7
Source: WEC, 2007b:197 South Africa ,341,000 7
Namibia ,282,000 6
Figure 6.9 Global annual uranium production and Brazil ,279,000 6
reactor requirements Niger ,225,000 5
Russian Fed. ,172,000 4
Uzbekistan ,116,000 2
grade and conguration such that the quan-
Ukraine ,90,000 2
tities which could be recovered within the
Jordan ,79,000 2
given production cost ranges with currently India ,67,000 1
proven mining and processing technology can China ,60,000 1
be specied. Estimates of tonnage and grade Other ,287,000 6
are based on specic sample data and meas- World total 4,743,000
urements of the deposits and on knowledge
Note: Reasonably Assured Resources plus Inferred Resources, to US$130/kg U,
of deposit characteristics. Proved reserves have 1/1/05, from OECD, NEA and IAEA, Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and
a high assurance of existence. Demand.
Inferred resources: refers to recoverable uranium Source: WNA, 2008c
(in addition to proved reserves) that is inferred
to occur, based on direct geological evidence, measurements of the deposits and knowledge
in extensions of well-explored deposits and in of their characteristics are considered to be
deposits in which geological continuity has inadequate to classify the resource as a proven
been established, but where specic data and reserve (WEC, 2007b, p208).
168 The Future of Energy Use
Mining produces about 55 per cent of the ura- operating on a thorium fuel cycle, once they are
nium used for power generation, some 42,000 started using a ssile material such as U-235 or
tonnes. The balance is made from stockpiles Pu-239. Then the thorium (Th-232) atom cap-
(these have run down recently), ex-military tures a neutron in the reactor to become ssile
material and from reprocessing spent fuel. Annual uranium (U-233), which continues the reaction.
discharges of spent fuel from the worlds reac- Some advanced reactor designs are likely to be able
tors total about 10,500 metric tonnes of heavy to make use of thorium on a substantial scale.
metal (t HM) per year. Two different manage- The thorium fuel cycle has some attractive
ment strategies are being implemented for spent features, although it is not yet in commercial use.
nuclear fuel. In the rst strategy, spent fuel is Thorium is reported to be about three times as
reprocessed to extract usable material (uranium abundant in the Earths crust as uranium. The
and plutonium) for new mixed oxide (MOX) 2005 IAEA-NEA Red Book gives a gure of
fuel (or stored for future reprocessing). Approxi- 4.5 million tonnes of reserves and additional
mately one-third of the worlds discharged spent resources, but points out that this excludes data
fuel has been reprocessed. In the second strategy, from much of the world (WNA, 2008c).
spent fuel is considered as waste and is stored
pending disposal.
Major commercial reprocessing plants are
operating in France and the UK, with capac-
Summary
ity of over 4000 tonnes of spent fuel per year. Despite the controversy surrounding nuclear
The product from these re-enters the fuel cycle power there is considerable interest in develop-
and is fabricated into fresh MOX fuel elements. ing further capacity, driven primarily by climate
About 200 tonnes of MOX is used each year and energy security concerns. This is particularly
which is equivalent to about 2000 tonnes from true in the OECD where typically countries
mines. Military uranium for weapons is enriched are resource poor in terms of fossil fuels. In the
to a higher level than civil fuel. Weapons-grade EU public opinion does appear to be shifting in
is about 97 per cent U-235. This can be diluted favour of nuclear power, although globally there
at approximately 25:1 with depleted uranium (or are mixed views. Nuclear technology has made
30:1 with enriched depleted uranium) to reduce progress since Chernobyl in terms of safety, but
it to about 4 per cent, suitable for reactor use. it should be recognized that with any complex
From 1999 the dilution of 30 tonnes of weap- technology an accident or failure is likely at some
ons grade material displaced about 10,600 tonnes time. If sufcient safeguards and containment
per year of mine production. The US and Russia measures are built into nuclear systems, then
have agreed to dispose of 34 tonnes each of mili- the likelihood of a repeat of Chernobyl is small.
tary plutonium by 2014. Most of it is likely to be But there are some difcult issues that remain.
used as feed for MOX plants, to make about 1500 Finding a long-term and safe method for deal-
tonnes of MOX fuel which will progressively be ing with waste, either from de-commissioning or
burned in civil reactors. spent fuel, is problematic simply because of the
time scales. Our technological experience to date
does not allow thinking beyond a relatively short
Thorium as a nuclear fuel timescale. Although nuclear power is a reliable
power source, it is likely to remain controversial.
Today uranium is the only fuel supplied for The future of fusion is uncertain.
nuclear reactors. However, thorium can also be
utilized as a fuel for CANDU reactors or in reac-
tors specially designed for this purpose. Neutron
efcient reactors, such as CANDU, are capable of
Nuclear Energy 169
the Greens-EFA Group in the European Parlia- WNA (2006a) What is uranium? How does it work?
ment. Available at: www.greens-efa.org/cms/top- World Nuclear Association.Available at: www.
ics/dokbin/206/206749.pdf world-nuclear.org/education/uran.htm
UNEP (2003) Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in WNA (2006b) International Nuclear Waste Disposal
Europe, Environment Alert Bulletin. Available at: Concepts, World Nuclear Association. Available at:
www.grid.unep.ch/product/publication/down- www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf21.html
load/ew_heat_wave.en.pdf WNA (2007a) Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities.
USNRC (2003) Biological Effects of Radiation, World Nuclear Association. Available at: www.
USNRC Technical Training Center, Reactor world-nuclear.org/info/inf19.html
Concepts manual. Available at: www.nrc.gov/ WNA (2007b) Radiation and Nuclear Energy, World
reading-rm/basic-ref/teachers/09.pdf Nuclear Association. Available at: www.world-
USNRC (2004) Biological Effects of radiation, nuclear.org/info/inf05.htm
Fact Sheet, United States Nuclear Regulatory WNA (2008a) The Nuclear Fuel Cycle, World
Commission. Available at: www.nrc.gov/reading- Nuclear Association. Available at: www.world-
rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/bio-effects-radia- nuclear.org/info/inf03.html
tion.pdf WNA (2008b) Uranium Markets, World Nuclear
WEC (2007a) Performance of Generating Plant: Association. Available at: www.world-nuclear.
Managing the Changes Executive Summary. org/info/inf22.html
World Energy Council. Available at: www. WNA (2008c) Supply of Uranium, World Nuclear
worldenergy.org/documents/pgp_es_nal_ Association. Available at: www.world-nuclear.
cmyk_print.pdf org/info/inf75.html
WEC (2007b) Survey of Energy Resources, World WNA (2008d) Fast Neutron Reactors, World Nuclear
Energy Council, UK. Available at: www.worlden- Association. Available at: www.world-nuclear.
ergy.org/documents/ser2007_nal_online_ver- org/info/inf98.html
sion_1.pdf WNA (2008e) Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors,
WEC (2007c) The Role of Nuclear Power in Europe, World Nuclear Association. Available at: www.
London: World Energy Council world-nuclear.org/info/inf08.html
WEC (2008) Focus: Nuclear Waste Management.
Available at: www.worldenergy.org/focus/
nuclear_waste_management/387.asp
7
Biomass heating
Geothermal power
Biomass power
Large hydropower
Small hydropower
Ethanol (annual production)
Solar hot water/heating
Solar PV off-grid
Geothermal heating
Wind power
Biodiesel (annual production)
Solar PV grid-connected
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Percent
Figure 7.3 Average annual growth rates of renewable energy capacity, 20022006
in turn. The most obvious exception is biomass, ment is hot. Radiant energy is emitted in a range
which is a stored form of energy and therefore of wavelengths (corresponding to colours in the
has some characteristics in common with fos- visible spectrum) that depends on the tempera-
sil fuels. However, in general, the output from a ture of the radiating object. The sun is very large
renewable energy generation system is climate, and very hot (see Table 7.1 for details), and so it
and therefore location, dependent and inter- emits enormous amounts of energy in the visible
mittent in nature. Whilst having relatively low spectrum.
running costs (due to no fuel costs), the major Only a tiny fraction of the suns energy (about
expenditure is the initial capital cost. Both these two parts in one billion) arrives on Earth; most
aspects are in contrast to the conventional fos- misses the Earth and other planets and disappears
sil fuel-based energy system and therefore some into space. Of the energy received by the Earth,
changes are required in both the technical and nearly one-third is reected back into space by
nancial treatment of energy generation. the clouds, ice and the oceans, etc.The other two-
Figure 7.4 is a ow diagram of the energy thirds keeps the Earth warm, drives the weather,
balance of the Earth. The major sources are the makes crops grow and powers most of the worlds
sun and tides, and the energy from nuclear, ther- natural processes.
mal and gravitational forces within the Earth The average temperature of the Earths sur-
itself. More than 99 per cent of incoming energy face, night and day throughout the year, remains
is solar radiation. Tidal energy and geothermal remarkably constant, albeit with some recent
energy inputs are much lower than solar. concerns about rising trends in that average.
Almost all renewable resources derive their If the temperature were to drop by only a few
power, directly or indirectly, from the sun, so we degrees centigrade, then we should have a new
will rst consider solar radiation and the tech- ice age, and if it were to rise by a similar amount
nologies for converting it into socially useful then the polar ice caps would melt and large areas
forms of energy. Solar radiation is the light and of the world would be ooded. This is one of the
heat received by the Earth from the sun. The sun major concerns of the current warming trend.To
emits radiation because its surface is hot just as keep the temperature at its present average, the
an electric re emits light and heat when the ele- Earth must radiate into space as much energy as it
174 The Future of Energy Use
Tides, tidal
currents etc
Volcanic activity
(3000)
Direct reflection
Conduction through
rocks (32,000)
Direct heating (81 million)
Evaporation of water
etc (40 million)
Temporary storage
in water and ice
Atmospheric energies
wind, waves etc (370,000)
gets from the sun. During the day the Earth gets predictable aspects. In any given location, it is at
more energy from the sun than it can radiate and its maximum during the day but is zero at night
thus the temperature rises, but at night it radi- and it is generally less in winter than in summer.
ates more than it gets and so the temperature falls Winter and summer seasons are dened in rela-
again. As clouds can reect some of this energy tion to the position of the sun in the sky, which
back to the Earth, cloudy nights are not as cold is highest in the northern hemisphere around
as clear nights. The concern over global warming the summer solstice (21 June or close to this
is that so-called greenhouse gases trapped in the date) and lowest around the winter solstice (21
atmosphere reduce the overall radiation to space December or close to this date). In the southern
and thus the average temperature of the Earth hemisphere, the opposite is true, with high solar
increases, with effects on crops, sea level, etc. elevation in December and low solar elevation in
Solar radiation reaching the Earth varies in June, hence the seasons are opposite. Day lengths
a complex way, but one which has some highly are also reduced in the winter and increased in
Renewable Energy Resources 175
the summer (for anywhere other than directly on a specied surface over a specied period, usually
the equator).When the sun is lower in the sky, the 1m2 of horizontal surface in one day. It differs in
solar radiation has to travel further through the different places and varies with the seasons. Fig-
atmosphere and so the power (energy/second) ure 7.5 shows the annual average daily irradiance
is reduced. Sunshine also varies from day to day in Europe. It can be seen that the values only
because of cloud cover and variation of absorp- differ by a factor of about 2.5 between southern
tion and scattering within the atmosphere (due Europe (around 5kWh/m2 per day) and north-
to water vapour, pollutants or other particulates). ern Europe (around 2.2kWh/m2 per day). The
Thus, we can predict the position of the sun at locations with the highest daily averages tend
any time at any location with some accuracy but to be in the desert regions of North Africa and
the climatic conditions then cause variation in Australia where levels between 6 and 7kWh/day
the amount of sunlight received. If the best use is can be found (Figure 7.6). Clearly, there are some
to be made of solar energy we need to know the seasonal variations and these tend to be higher
average amount available and how variable it is in higher latitudes because of the greater varia-
and this is discussed in the next section. tion in the length of the day.Table 7.2 gives some
examples of annual and seasonal variation in daily
irradiation values for some capital cities around
Solar radiation the world. Note that, although the total irradia-
tion generally increases as latitude decreases, it
Solar radiation (sometimes called irradiation or is also inuenced by climatic variations. Thus,
insolation) is a measure of the energy received on Johannesburg gets more sunlight than Rio de
176 The Future of Energy Use
1.01.9 2.02.9
3.03.9 4.04.9
5.05.9 6.06.9
Midpoint of
zone value
Source: OkSolar.com
Figure 7.6 Annual average irradiance for the world (kWh m2/day)
Renewable Energy Resources 177
Table 7.2 Average daily irradiation values for various cities around the world for a horizontal surface, in
kWh/m2
City, country and Annual average Average daily Average daily Average daily Average daily
latitude daily irradiation irradiation, irradiation, irradiation, irradiation,
March June September December
London, UK 2.62 2.26 4.87 2.93 0.48
51.4N
Madrid, Spain 4.55 4.55 7.43 5.00 1.58
40.4N
Washington DC, US 4.07 3.90 6.20 4.43 1.77
39.1N
Moscow, Russia 2.65 2.48 5.20 2.37 0.32
55.6N
Tokyo, Japan 3.49 3.71 4.20 3.23 2.23
35.3N
Sydney, Australia 4.42 4.22 2.33 4.63 6.12
33.5S
Beijing, China 3.68 3.71 5.47 3.90 1.81
39.5N
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 4.63 5.22 3.20 4.23 5.61
22.5S
Johannesburg, South Africa 5.68 5.90 3.97 6.13 7.03
27.5S
Source: Meteonorm v4.0 (solar data software)
if we choose to use a higher mounting angle the extremes. As an example, Figures 7.7 (a) and
(e.g. the vertical faade of a building), then we (b) show these maximum and minimum rates
can reduce the variability of the solar radiation of irradiation for June and Figures 7.7 (c) and
received for higher latitude locations. (d) for December, both for the UK. In June, the
range runs from 8kWh/m2 to 2kWh/m2 and in
December that range is reduced by a factor of
Variability of solar irradiation about ten. However, maxima and minima taken
from 1 year in 10 will conceal the greater varia-
We are all aware that solar irradiation varies from tions that would be experienced by someone liv-
season to season and this needs to be taken into ing for, say, 70 years.
account when considering how best to design a To deal with these greater variations it is
system to harness it. The data shown in irradia- necessary to consider the number of occasions
tion maps, including those in Figure 7.5, are for in 100 years when the average energy received
all days in the year averaged over many years. But will be less than a certain value. This is known
the energy received in any given month in any as the cumulative frequency distribution and, in
given year will be different from that received Figure 7.8, it is given for the months of June and
in the same month in any other year and it is December. Not only is the average energy much
important to remember this when dealing with lower in December than in June, but the vari-
the prediction of outputs from renewable energy ability is much greater. However, it is important
systems. So it is usual to take the maximum and to remember that months vary from fortnight to
minimum radiation expected in 1 year in 10 as fortnight, week to week, even day to day. It is
178 The Future of Energy Use
8.0 1.4
1.4
8.0 1.6
1.6 1.8
2.0
8.5 1.6
2.0 1.6
8.5 8.0
1.6 1.6 1.4
1.4
8.0 1.8 1.2
1.6
1.8
2.0
8.5 2.0
2.25
9.0 2.5
9.0 2.75
2.25 3.0
9.5 2.5 3.3
9.5 2.75
3.0 3.3
3.6
3.6
0.3 0.02
0.4 0.3 0.03 0.02
0.5 0.4 0.04
0.6 0.03
0.5 0.05 0.04
0.7 0.6 0.7
0.8 0.05
0.8
0.9 0.10
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2 1.0 0.15
1.1
1.4 1.2 0.20
1.4 0.10
1.6
1.6 1.8 0.15
1.8 0.25
2.0 0.20
1.8 2.0
2.25 0.25
0.30
2.25 0.30
2.5
0.35
2.5 0.40
0.35
2.75
2.75 0.40
3.0 0.50
3.0
0.50
Figure 7.7 Solar irradiation for the best/worst year in ten (kWh m2/day)
Renewable Energy Resources 179
20 20
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 0 1 2 3 4
Mi/m2/day Mi/m2/day
1000 300
800 A
A
200
600
W/m2
W/m2
B
400 B
100
200 C
C
0 0
04 08 12 16 20 06 08 10 12 14 16
Time (LAT) Time (LAT)
also possible to plot a century long, cumulative ations, measured by the amount of energy falling
frequency distribution for fortnights and weeks, on a horizontal surface of 1m2, is shown in Fig-
which could be a useful guide to the chances of ure 7.9 for daytimes in June and December. The
a sunny or a wet summer holiday. Solar energy graphs give averages for the best and worst days
varies in intensity during the day and these vari- in every 50 and the absolute average.
180 The Future of Energy Use
2.50
Special Irradiance (W/m2/nm)
2.00
1.50
...... AM0
AM1.5
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0
Wavelength (nm)
Figure 7.10 Solar spectrum for space (AM0) and terrestrial (AM1.5) irradiation
Renewable Energy Resources 181
max T = constant
T1 T1>T2>T3>T4>T5
P()
Wavelength
T3
Figure 7.11 Power output per unit wavelength
versus wavelength for black body T4
T5
If a rectangular beam of light (1m 1m, say) falls where = Stefans constant
at an angle on to a surface, the beam will cover = 5.67 108 Wm2K4
an area of that surface which is greater than 1m2 For a surface with an emittance
and therefore have a lower power density than
for the surface that is normal to the beam. If P = T4
the beam falls at an angle to the normal to the
surface, then the beam will cover an area of sur- The sun behaves rather like a black body with
face equal to (1 1/cos)m2. If the power den- surface temperature of 5800K so:
sity of the beam is P watts/m2, then this power
P is now spread over (1/cos)m2 of the surface P = 5.67 108 (5800)4 = 64MW m2
(Figure 7.13). The power density received by the
The Earths surface has many different colours
surface is therefore P/(1/cos) = Pcos watts/m2.
and therefore many different values of emittance
Let us consider an example.We assume a clear
for different areas: sand, sea, forest, etc. Taking
day in the UK with a power density in sunlight
an average emittance of 0.7 and an average sur-
of 900 watts/m2 for a surface which is positioned
face temperature of 280K, P = (0.7) 5.67 108
normal to the suns beam. In June at midday
(280)4 = 240Wm2
the sun is (latitude 22) from the vertical, i.e.
about 30, so the power density falling on the
ground (horizontal) is 900 cos 30 = 900 0.866
= 780watts/m2. If we consider December at mid- Photovoltaics
day and assume the same power density normal
to the sun, the sun is (latitude +22) from the Solar cells
vertical, i.e. about 75, so the power density fall-
ing on at ground is 900 cos 75 = 900 0.259 A solar cell converts light to electricity. The cells
= 233watts/m2. produce both electric current and voltage by
Figure 7.14 Typical single crystal and multicrystalline silicon solar cells
Renewable Energy Resources 183
the photovoltaic effect, and the technology is the output of their cells for a sunlight intensity of
often given the name photovoltaics (sometimes 1kW/m2, at a cell temperature of 25C and for
solar photovoltaics to clearly identify the energy a dened solar spectrum (AM1.5 Global). The
source). Solar cells are electronic devices made output under these Standard Test Conditions is
from semiconductor materials such as silicon. often labelled peak watts or Wp.
Cells fabricated from crystalline silicon have The current generated by a solar cell var-
traditionally dominated the market, account- ies linearly with the intensity of light except at
ing for typically 9395 per cent of the market very low light levels. So if the light is halved, then
over the last few years. Whilst thin lm solar cells the current output will also halve. The current is
based on other semiconductor materials are now also proportional to the cell area. The voltage is
making a growing impact on the market, experts dependent on the material and design of the cell
agree that crystalline silicon will continue to be and has a small dependence on light level (actu-
a major part of the market in the medium term. ally a logarithmic dependency). The voltage also
Silicon cells are usually in the form of thin slices depends on the temperature of the cell and, for
(known as wafers) about 0.25mm thick.The pos- crystalline silicon, decreases by about 0.5 per cent
itive contact is a layer of metal on the back of for every one degree rise above 25C.
the wafer, while the negative contact on top of In most cases, the structure of the solar cell
the cell must collect the current and also allow as is the same as a diode and the currentvoltage
much light as possible to enter the device.There-
fore, the top contact is usually made in the form
of a grid, as shown in Figure 7.14.
The process by which the absorption of light
in a solar cell can produce DC (direct current)
electrical power is represented by the schematic
diagram in Figure 7.15. Note that a cell must
produce both current and voltage to gener-
ate power, since power = current voltage. In
bright sunlight, a typical single crystal silicon
cell of dimensions 15 15cm (225cm2) would
have an output of about 0.5 volts and 7 amps, i.e. Figure 7.16 The currentvoltage characteristic of
about 3.5 watts of power. Manufacturers quote a solar cell
184 The Future of Energy Use
characteristic has the same shape as a conven- is reacted with hydrogen chloride to give a liq-
tional diode curve except that the current ow uid silicon compound which, in turn, is puried
is in the reverse direction. Figure 7.16 shows the by fractional distillation. The resulting ultra-pure
shape of the characteristic curve, together with trichlorosilane is then heated until it dissociates,
the main parameters: short circuit current, open leaving pieces of silicon which have a purity of
circuit voltage and maximum power. For any about one part per billion. These silicon pieces
given resistive load across the cell terminals, the are then melted in a furnace and, using a small
cell will operate at the point on the characteristic seed crystal, grown into a large crystal or boule
curve where Ohms law,V = I R, is met (where V which can be over 1m in length and usually
is the voltage, I is the current and R is the resist- 200300mm in diameter. If a small amount of
ance of the load). We can extract most power boron is added to the molten silicon, this makes
from the solar cell if we can load the cell with the silicon electrically conducting through posi-
a resistance that corresponds to the point on the tive mobile charges. The boron-doped silicon is
curve at which the product of I and V is largest, referred to as P type silicon and is used to form
designated the Maximum Power Point. the base of the cell.
To make solar cells, or any other electronic
device such as silicon chips, the boule is cut, usu-
Production of crystalline silicon solar cells ally by a diamond impregnated wire, into very
thin slices called wafers. These are then polished
The majority of todays commercial solar cells are to about 0.25mm thick and, with one face cov-
made from silicon, which is a plentiful natural ered, are put into a furnace containing a vapor-
resource making up more than a fth of the ized phosphorus compound which diffuses into
Earths crust and the chief component of ordi- the exposed surface of the wafer to a depth of
nary sand. The silicon used in solar cells must be about 1/1000mm. This phosphorus doping gives
puried to a high degree and for this the silicon mobile negative charges and the resulting surface
oxide (sand) is rst heated to the point where the is called N type silicon; the wafer is now a semi-
oxygen is driven off, leaving impure silicon. This conductor diode. The junction between P and
Figure 7.17 The basic stages in the manufacture of crystalline silicon PV modules
Renewable Energy Resources 185
N silicon creates an electric eld. Contacts are for remote systems, comprise 3036 silicon cells
screen printed on to the back of the cell, cov- and this ensures that the output will exceed 12
ering the whole area, and in a grid formation volts even in moderate sunlight and, hence, will
on the front, allowing in as much light as pos- charge a 12 volt battery. This is one consequence
sible. The top silicon surface is then coated with of the logarithmic dependence of voltage on light
a transparent layer to reduce the amount of light intensity, since it means that the voltage remains
reected from the surface of the cell. All the cells quite high even at rather low light levels. The
are tested to see that they reach their specica- currentvoltage characteristic of the PV module
tions and are then sorted into groups depending is the same shape as that of the cell, now with
on their quality. Figure 7.17 provides a ow chart modied parameters according to the number of
of the production stages of a photovoltaic mod- cells connected together.
ule of silicon cells from the raw materials. New applications of modules in buildings and
Many of todays silicon cells are produced in large power plants, together with the use of
from multicrystalline silicon, that is material new cell materials, have led to the development
made up of a number of crystals not just a single of a wide range of modules with different num-
crystal. To produce this material, molten silicon bers of cells to reect the voltage requirement of
is poured into a container and allowed to cool the application. It is also possible to increase the
under controlled conditions, resulting in ingots module size to accommodate 70100 cells, but to
of silicon with large columnar crystals (or grains) have several series strings incorporated into the
growing from the bottom of the container module to keep the voltage at a reasonably low
upwards. The ingots are then sliced into wafers level. These strings would then be connected in
and processed in a similar way to single crystal parallel, so increasing the current from the mod-
wafers. There is some reduction in performance ule. Many new designs of module are now avail-
due to the boundaries between crystals, but the able on the market.
cells still usually exhibit power outputs of over The module must be strong enough to with-
80 per cent of the equivalent single crystal sili- stand the elements, and to protect the cells and
con cell. The advantages of using multicrystalline their electrical contacts from attacks by moisture
material in comparison with single crystal are and atmospheric pollutants throughout their life-
lower capital costs, lower energy and processing time of 2530 years or more. Cell temperatures
costs, higher throughput and lower sensitivity to can vary from 20C on a cold night to over
the silicon quality. Commercial silicon solar cells 60C on a hot day, so the module design must
have efciencies in the range of 1216.5 per cent, allow for thermal contraction and expansion of
whilst the best cell efciency in the laboratory the cells and other materials. For the crystal-
has reached 24.7 per cent (Green et al, 2008). line silicon module, a schematic of the module
construction is shown in Figure 7.18. A typical
sequence of manufacture is as follows:
Photovoltaic modules
the individual cells are rst connected to give
Because single solar cells give only small amounts the correct electrical conguration;
of power, they are commonly assembled into they are then arranged in the physical con-
photovoltaic (PV) modules. The top contact of guration required, for example, 4 adjacent
each cell in the module is connected to the back rows of 9 cells in each row;
contact of the one which precedes it (a series the module front sheet is toughened glass, usu-
connection) and this results in the voltage out- ally around 4mm thick it is made from glass
put of the module being the sum of the voltages with a low iron content to ensure high trans-
from each cell. The module current is equivalent mittance in the blue region of the spectrum;
to that of a single cell and is governed by the the cells are laid out on the glass with a thin
cell size. Traditional modules, originally designed sheet of encapsulant material (e.g. ethyl vinyl
186 The Future of Energy Use
(a)
Glass substrate
Back contact
(b)
Ni/Al contact grid
Mo back contact
Glass substrate
Figure 7.19 Cross sectional schematic of (a) CdTe and (b) CIGS solar cells
that thinner i-layers are more stable, so the best are both heterojunction structures with the CdTe
cells now have two or three junctions, each with a or CIGS forming the p-layer and cadmium sul-
thin i-layer but with the overall thickness of mat- phide (CdS) forming the n-layer of the diode.
erial being sufcient to absorb most of the light. Most of the light is transmitted through the
Figure 7.19 shows schematic diagrams of the CdS layer and is absorbed by either the CdTe
structures of a CdTe cell and a CIGS cell. These or CIGS layer. The top contact in both cases is
188 The Future of Energy Use
a transparent conductive oxide (i.e. a lm which designs have yielded efciencies well over 30 per
conducts electricity but also transmits light) cent under concentrated sunlight (Green et al,
rather than a metal grid. 2008). These materials are also the basis of some
The layers for each cell can be formed by a advanced cell structures which promise even
variety of techniques including thermal evapo- higher efciencies if they can be fabricated suc-
ration, sputtering, electrodeposition and plasma cessfully in volume.
enhanced processes. All thin lm cells consist of There has been a considerable amount of
a number of deposited layers that are then pat- recent research and development on organic-
terned to produce discrete cells on a single large and polymer-based cells. Perhaps the most well-
substrate.These can be considered as single cells in known of these is the dye-sensitized cell, which
terms of connection, as for the crystalline silicon uses titanium dioxide particles coated in a photo-
cell, even though they are physically positioned sensitive dye and immersed in an electrolyte. The
on the same substrate. Thus, the module is made promise of this family of devices is low cost due to
directly by the sequential deposition and pattern- the materials and processing techniques, although
ing of the layers. This removes the step where the they also currently have lower efciencies than
cells need to be connected together and placed in inorganic cells. Green et al (2008) report a best
the module and so thin lm module production organic cell efciency of 5.15 per cent but this
can be more automated and less costly. However, has yet to be translated to an equivalent module
it is necessary to be able to carefully control the efciency. It is likely to require a few more years
deposition of the layers over large areas, so that of development before organic cells can compete
the cells are as uniform as possible. on efciency and stability with the current PV
Because the cells are all made on a large sub- products, but they represent an interesting route
strate, we cannot consider individual cell efcien- to lower cost.
cies at the commercial product level, but only the
module efciency. This is typically around 10
per cent for CIGS, 9.5 per cent for CdTe and Photovoltaic arrays
between 4 and 7 per cent for a-Si depending on
the design. The highest thin lm cell efciency As with cells, modules can be connected together
reached in the laboratory is for CIGS at 19.2 per in series (positive to negative) to increase the
cent, whereas CdTe has reached 16.5 per cent voltage or in parallel (negative to negative, posi-
and a-Si 9.5 per cent (stabilized under 1 sun for tive to positive) to increase the current. The
800 hours) (Green et al, 2008). photovoltaic array consists of a number of elec-
trically connected modules, fastened to a secure
structure, which can either be xed in the best
Other photovoltaic materials position to receive the greatest amount of sun-
light or they can be driven so that they follow
We have discussed the PV materials that are com- the changing position of the sun (known as sun
mercially available for power modules, but there tracking). These arrays can vary in size from just
are several other interesting materials and con- a few modules, for purposes like telecommunica-
cepts which we will mention here although we tions, to hundreds of thousands for large supplies
will not discuss them in detail. to grid-connected utilities. The power capacity
Cells based on materials such as gallium arse- of the array is calculated as the sum of the rated
nide, indium gallium arsenide and others from outputs of the constituent modules and the cur-
the same family (so-called III-V materials) are rentvoltage characteristic is the same shape as
used for space applications and in systems using for the cells and modules, but now reects the
concentrated sunlight. Epitaxial growth meth- number of modules connected together.
ods are used to produce cells with several p-n
junctions and very high efciencies. Several cell
Renewable Energy Resources 189
grid. There are several uses for which photovol- challenges of the PV market is to develop the
taic systems have, in many circumstances, proved capacity in all the other countries that can use
to be the best choice in developing countries substantial amounts of solar energy to match that
on both engineering and economic grounds. in the three countries named above.
In telecommunications their reliability and low The exact balance between grid connected
maintenance needs not only reduce costs but also and off-grid systems is quite hard to quantify
increase revenue because people can be sure that since the latter are not always fully reported, but
telephones will work when they want them. PV we can estimate that the former accounted for
lights homes, shops, clinics, hospitals, communal around 90 per cent of the cumulative installed
buildings or camps not connected to the grid, capacity in 2007 with an annual growth rate
reliably and cost effectively, using high efciency of almost twice that of the off-grid market. In
DC lamps. Many thousands of PV powered water recent years, there has been a trend towards
pumps, both for drinking water and for irriga- ground mounted systems in the multi-megawatt
tion, are already in use. At the end of the cold range due to the favourable investment condi-
chain small but reliable refrigerators are needed tions brought about by feed-in tariff schemes.
for keeping vaccines. PV powered refrigerators However, many schemes are now looking at
cost more than those powered by kerosene or balancing the support provided to encourage
similar fuels, but because they are so reliable the the installation of distributed systems where PV
cost per effective dose is signicantly lower. is particularly well suited to providing power
The main obstacle to the widespread use of in the urban environment. The largest building
photovoltaic systems for purposes like these is integrated systems are around 15MW in size,
nancial. Although the lifetime costs are lower compared to up to 60MW for ground mounted
than for diesel systems, the initial capital cost is plants, but a major market for PV is the millions
beyond the reach of villagers in developing coun- of buildings that could benet from systems of
tries. Solutions in terms of agricultural banks and a few kW to a few hundred kW. Architects are
local loan systems are now being established, nding new ways of integrating PV arrays to add
but progress remains slower than it should be in multi-functionality, including using them for pas-
addressing these needs. sive solar shading, assistance with natural venti-
Notwithstanding the need for solar systems lation and visual features. As we move forward,
in developing countries, by far the fastest grow- PV will be incorporated into some of the worlds
ing sector is that of grid-connected PV systems most iconic buildings and be a common site on
and, indeed, the overall PV market has been the housing all over the world.
fastest growing of all the renewable technologies PV systems have no emissions in use and so
in the last ve years albeit from a relatively low the main environmental impacts relate to manu-
base. The availability of nancial support through facture and disposal (in common with most other
capital grants or enhanced feed-in tariffs has pro- renewable technologies). Fthenakis and Alsema
moted the use of PV, especially in Europe. At the (2005) have shown that the energy payback time
end of 2007, it is estimated that Germany had for multicrystalline silicon modules (2004 pro-
almost 4GW of PV capacity installed, this being duction, European, 13.2 per cent efciency) in a
around half of the worldwide installed capacity, rooftop installation in an average southern Euro-
as a result of their long-term market develop- pean location with 1700kWh/m2 irradiation is
ment programme and, not unconnected, they around 2.2 years. Therefore, this should allow
were also the strongest country in terms of PV over 25 years of operation with net energy gain.
industry when both cell manufacture and sys- For thin lm cadmium telluride modules at 8 per
tems level expertise are taken into account (IEA- cent efciency, the energy payback time for the
PVPS, 2008). Japan has the second largest total, same system is around half this (about 1 year).
with almost 2GW at the end of 2007, and the Thin lm modules have lower energy payback
US was third with around 830MW. One of the times because they use less material and lower
192 The Future of Energy Use
energy processes. For the UK, where the irradia- Table 7.3 Thermal conductivities of some common
tion levels are a little lower, these payback times building materials
would be increased by 5060 per cent but this
would still mean that the energy of manufacture Material Thermal conductivity
is less than 20 per cent of the expected energy (W/mK)
generation. In the same study, Fthenakis and
Alsema showed that the greenhouse gas emis- Aluminium 204
sions from PV systems, assuming the same oper- Steel, Iron 52
ating conditions, are comparable with those from Brick 0.60.7
Concrete (varies with 0.122.0
nuclear power stations (in the range of 2040
density)
gCO2-eq./kWh) and about one-tenth of those
Glass 0.8
from gas red power stations. Since the green-
Tiles 1.2
house gas emissions are almost entirely associ- Hardwood 0.17
ated with the use of conventional energy for cell Polyurethane foam (PUR) 0.0250.035
and material processing, these values will reduce Cavity wall isolation 0.05
as more renewable technologies are introduced Air 0.023
into the energy generation system. Several Euro-
pean PV companies have formed an association
to develop recycling techniques for PV modules
and a number of them already offer this service. solar heating or cooling of housing or working
The challenge, for a large number of distributed spaces can be accomplished simply by the appro-
systems and some of them in remote locations, is priate design of the buildings and without any
to collect all components for recycling or con- machines or moving parts. Such buildings rst
trolled disposal. appeared in Greece over 2000 years ago, and
The barrier to widespread use of photovoltaic were common throughout the last millennium
systems remains the capital cost, but the rapid in Islamic architecture. The advent of cheap and
development of the market and the industry will abundant fossil fuels led to the abandonment of
help to reduce manufacturing costs, which are these traditions, but they are now being re-estab-
still affected by the relatively small scale of pro- lished on a rm scientic basis and termed pas-
duction. It is expected that PV systems will be sive solar technologies.
competitive with conventional electricity gener-
ation technologies in southern Europe and simi-
lar climates in the next decade and throughout
Passive solar heating
Europe soon after 2020, at least for distributed
All rooms with a window facing the sun are
systems. Coupled with the suitability of PV for
heated when the sunlight shines in. These
off-grid applications and the simplicity of use,
unplanned solar gains contribute 1020 per cent
solar electricity from photovoltaics can make a
of the annual space heating of a typical house
major contribution to the future of energy supply.
in the UK. Some houses have conservatories or
greenhouses which are designed to make use of
solar heating, and there are a growing number of
Solar thermal technologies houses and other buildings which are designed
to minimize the total energy needed for space
When an object absorbs sunlight it gets hot. This heating and to maximize the contribution which
heat energy is usable in various ways, to provide solar energy can make.
space heating or cooling, to provide domestic or When the temperature inside a building is
industrial hot water, to boil water or other uids higher than that outside, heat can be lost by con-
for industrial processes, or to drive engines. The duction, convection and radiation. Conduction
Renewable Energy Resources 193
of heat depends on temperature gradients across, the surfaces in the room, and the larger the win-
and the thermal conductivity of, a given material. dow the warmer the room. If the sun is not shin-
For a given difference, T, between inside and ing, however, the larger the window the more
outside temperatures the thicker the materials, for infrared radiation escapes and the cooler the
example in the house walls, the lower the tem- room. At night this effect can be mitigated by
perature gradient and hence the lower the heat drawing curtains or blinds, but this is not sen-
losses. Also, the lower the thermal conductivity, sible during the day. The solution is to use win-
k, of the material, the lower is the conduction. dows which transmit visible radiation but reect
In general, the rate of energy loss through a wall infrared radiation back into the room. Glass itself
of area, A, and thickness, L, is P = kAT/L = reects infrared more than visible light, but it is
UAT, where U is the thermal conductance (the possible to enhance this effect considerably by
U value) of the construction. The thermal con- special coatings on the glass. This then minimizes
ductivities of some common building materials the loss of heat by infrared radiation while allow-
are shown in Table 7.3. A window pane of 3mm ing the use of large south facing windows to
glass has a U-value of 350. A 5cm thick layer of maximize the solar gain. In hot countries, other
still air between two sheets of glass reduces this coatings can reect much of the solar radiation
to 0.52, showing the benets of double glazing. while transmitting most of the infrared and so
A brick wall 10cm thick would have a U-value minimize the cooling needed to keep the room
of 6, and two such walls a U-value of 3. The cav- at a comfortable temperature.
ity between the walls is wide enough to allow From all this we can dene the main require-
convection currents in the air, so heat is trans- ments for a passive solar building. The south-fac-
ported readily from the inner to the outer wall. ing glazed area should be large, to maximize solar
If the cavity (say 10cm wide) is lled with poly- gain, while the north-facing glazed area should
urethane foam, the U-value of the wall is reduced be small to minimize radiation losses, and the
to 0.25. The U-value of a typical plastered plaster construction should have a low overall U-value.
board ceiling is around 20. Laying 10cm of min- (Note: this section assumes a building in the
eral wool over the ceiling reduces the U-value to northern hemisphere where the sun is primarily
around 0.35. A well designed and well insulated to the south. Transposing south and north pro-
house would have an overall U-value of around vides the rules for a passive solar building in the
0.20.3Wm2K1. southern hemisphere, but east and west directions
Hot air rises while cold air sinks, thus produc- remain the same). To avoid claustrophobia in the
ing convection currents. These are very efcient rooms on the north side of the building, the win-
at transporting heat and are the main mechanism dows should be tall but narrow, so that the sky
by which outside walls lose heat. Inside older
houses, convection currents are called draughts
and result in substantial heat loss. As we remarked
in the section on solar radiation, all objects radi-
ate energy. The rate at which they do it and the Direct gain
wavelength of the radiation depends on the tem-
perature of the object.
The sun radiates mainly in the visible spec-
trum, while any surface at room temperature
radiates in the infrared at a wavelength of around
10m. Rooms with large windows present a
large area through which infrared radiation from
the room can escape. On sunny days a south-fac- South North
and ground are both visible, while keeping the like an optical bre, transmitting sunlight to their
window area small. The simplest type of passive skin. Plastic bres laid side by side can be glued
solar building is shown in outline in Figure 7.22 together into sheets or other shapes. Light is
and such structures are said to provide direct solar transmitted down the bres, so the sheet is trans-
gain. Additional solar gain can be provided in the parent, but if the bres are, say, 20cm long, the U-
morning by east-facing windows but west win- value of the sheet would be about 0.5 or so. The
dows may need to be shaded to avoid unwanted great advantage of transparent insulation is that it
solar gain on late summer afternoons. Excessive can be made in standard, self-supporting shapes,
heating can be prevented by designing the roof like bricks, from which walls can be built.
structures that overhang the windows to provide The economics of passive solar buildings are
shade against the high summer sun, while admit- attractive. The additional cost of passive solar and
ting the low winter sun. Alternatively, a plan- thermal insulation over and above that of a con-
tation of deciduous trees in front of the south ventional new building is usually no more than
faade would provide considerable shading in the 510 per cent. Nevertheless, passive solar features
summer but little in winter when the leaves have are not commonly included in new domestic
been shed. properties in the UK, although this may change
The solar collection area can be expanded to the as building regulations require lower energy con-
entire south faade if indirect solar gain tech- sumption targets to be met. Many commercial
niques are used. The most common of these is a buildings incorporate atria and other passive solar
conservatory on the south wall with a means of features for the benets that they bring to space
circulating the warm air throughout the house heating and day lighting.
(see Figure 7.23). A more effective, but expensive
method is to glaze all or much of the south-fac-
ing wall (see Figure 7.24). A black wall absorbs Passive solar cooling
the sunlight, and the air between the glazing and
the wall rises as it is warmed and is distributed Buildings can be designed so that the heat of
throughout the building. This type of structure the sun induces convection currents which
was developed by Felix Trombe in the 1950s and draw cool air into the building and so reduce
is often called a Trombe Wall. In some cases, the inside temperature. Islamic architecture has
transparent insulation is used as the glazing, to used this principle for centuries and many of its
reduce the heat otherwise lost by conduction and buildings have a chimney which draws up hot
radiation. Transparent insulation was rst noticed
in the coats of polar bears. Each strand of fur acts
External
glass
Cool air
South North
North
South
air and brings air into the building past north fac- geometry. The rate of energy loss to the sur-
ing surfaces which remain cool throughout the roundings depends mainly on conduction at low
day. A modern variant of this uses a Trombe Wall water temperatures, and so varies with the differ-
to create the air movement. Instead of being cir- ence between water temperature Tw and ambient
culated in the building, the hot air is vented to temperature Ta. It can be written as U(Tw Ta),
the atmosphere while the incoming air is cooled where U is the U-value of the solar collector
by underground, or north-facing, heavy masonry system. The rate of delivery of useful energy Q
surfaces. (Watts) can then be written Q = FI U (Tw
Ta). This is known as the HotelWhillierBliss
equation, after the three people who rst derived
Active solar heating the equation and used it to study the perform-
ance of solar heat collectors.
Sunshine can be used to raise the temperature of The efciency of a collector is the ratio of
a working uid and the increases can vary from useful heat delivered to the incident solar radia-
a few degrees to over 2000C, depending on the tion, i.e. Q/I, so the efciency c = F U (Tw
type of system used. Ta)/I. To produce collectors with the highest
efciency, we should increase the absorption ef-
ciency F, reduce the heat loss factors and operate
Low temperature water heaters at the highest solar intensity. Figure 7.25 shows a
plot of collector efciency against (Tw Ta)/I,
If water is run through a black hose-pipe exposed for different types of collectors. If the U-value
to sunlight it will come out warmer than it went of the collector was independent of temperature,
in. If it is lled with water and both ends are the relationships would be straight lines. In fact
sealed, and it is then coiled at, the water will at higher temperatures, radiation begins to play a
heat up on a hot sunny day to as much as 60C. larger role in heat loss and the efciency falls off
The water temperature will rise until the rate at more rapidly.
which the hose loses heat to its surroundings is The standard solar water heater consists of a
equal to the rate at which it gains heat from the at metal plate with a black upper surface and
sun. This equilibrium (also called the stagnation pipes, in good thermal contact, attached to the
temperature) depends on the rate of heat loss as back.The black surface is exposed to the sunlight
well as the rate of heat gain. The rate of heat gain and so is heated. Water owing through the pipes
depends on the intensity of the sunlight and the
efciency with which it is absorbed by the sur-
face of the hosepipe.The rate of heat loss depends 1.0
on the conduction, convection and radiation of
energy from the surface of the hose. 0.8
the rate of energy input from the sun and the rate 0.2
of energy loss to the surroundings. The rate of
energy input from the sun depends on the inten- 0
0 0.1 0.2
sity of solar radiation I (Wm2), the absorbance
TwTa/l (C/Wm2)
capacity () of the surface of the hose and a fac-
tor F (between 0 and 1), which takes account of
any other inuence on absorption of sunlight, Figure 7.25 Efciency curves for solar water
such as reections, surface roughness and surface heaters
196 The Future of Energy Use
is warmed by heat conducted from the plate to the domestic water supply. When the uid in the
the pipes. A great deal of heat would be lost if solar collector is hotter than the water in the pre-
the plate and the pipes were exposed to winds heat tank, the circulating pump is switched on.
or convection currents, so they are enclosed in The hot uid from the collector is sent through
a well-insulated box, with a glass or plastic front the heat exchanger to heat the water in the pre-
cover. For the highest efciency the front may be heat tank, from where it is either used directly or
double glazed, although this adds to the cost. The stored in the hot water tank.
upper surface of the plate is coated with a black Nearly 50 million households had solar col-
paint or other coating which absorbs sunlight lectors to provide hot water by the end of 2006
efciently. Most black surfaces are good absorb- (Martinot, 2008).
ers of visible light and also efcient radiators of If very large areas of collector are required,
infrared. They therefore radiate heat through the it can be more cost effective in some circum-
glass front. Selective surfaces are good absorbers stances to use a solar pond. Any area of shallow
of sunlight but poor radiators of infrared and so water exposed to sunlight is heated by the solar
reduce the radiation heat losses by factors of ve energy absorbed by the water and the bed of
or more. Such surfaces give rather higher efcien- the pond. Much of this heat is lost in normal
cies at low temperature, but, more importantly, ponds by convection currents which bring the
they maintain efciency up to much higher tem- hot water to the surface, where it loses heat to
peratures, as shown in curve c of Figure 7.25. the atmosphere. The density of the water may be
The evacuated tube collector has the lowest increased by adding salt.The concentration of salt
heat loss of any of these devices. It consists of a is made to be higher at the bottom of the pond,
glass tube, sealed at both ends and evacuated of all and decreased gradually toward the surface. Even
air, with a heat collector tube running down the if the water at the bottom of the pond is hotter
middle. The bottom half of the outer tube is sil- than at the surface, it remains more dense as it has
vered on the inside, so sunlight is focused on to more salt dissolved in it. In this way convection
the inner collector tube. The collector tube may currents are suppressed. In these ponds the bot-
be hollow, with water owing through it, or it tom layer of brine can become quite hot, and the
may be a heat pipe (a device which transmits heat upper layers of water act as a good insulator, mak-
very efciently along its length). Since there is no ing an efcient solar collector. The concentrated
air between the collector tube and the outer tube, brine can be pumped through a heat exchanger
there can be no convection or conduction loss, to heat water or other uids and, if the tempera-
except at the ends where the collector tube passes ture is high enough, they can be used to drive a
through the seals. Radiation losses are reduced turbine and generate electricity.
by using selective black surfaces on the collector
tube.
A solar collector will consist of 1020 of Concentrating solar power systems
those evacuated tubes side by side in a rectan-
gular box, having a common water inlet and If higher temperatures are required than can
outlet. Although they are more expensive than be achieved by at-plate collectors, usually for
the standard at-plate collector, they are much generating electricity, then sunlight can be con-
more efcient at higher temperatures and can centrated by mirrors or lenses. Concentrating
easily produce low pressure steam in high solar collectors can achieve temperatures up to 1000C
intensities, and produce very hot water even in depending on the conguration of the system
winter sunshine in countries like the UK. In and the concentration ratio (as described in the
use the solar collector must be plumbed in to a section on concentrating PV systems). There are
buildings water supply and heating system. The three main congurations of concentrating solar
uid in the solar collector is a mixture of water power (CSP) collector which have been com-
and anti-freeze, so it must be kept separate from mercially demonstrated:
Renewable Energy Resources 197
Absorber tube
supports
Absorber in
evacuated tube
Silvered West
glass mirror
Sun tracking
East
By contrast, parabolic dishes tend to use air as the The use of a molten salt as the working uid also
working uid. A Stirling engine, which is a high allows some storage of the heat in a suitable stor-
efciency, closed cycle hot air engine, is posi- age chamber, and this will allow the generation of
tioned at the focal point of the collector. Since electricity in cloudy periods or at night with the
this requires the generator to be part of the col- result that the power output from a large CSP
lector assembly, these systems are usually smaller plant is not as variable as that from a photovoltaic
than the parabolic trough systems and currently system of the same capacity. It has also been sug-
compete with photovoltaics or diesel engines for gested that CSP plants could be used for the gen-
remote power supplies. The parabolic dish can eration of hydrogen as a fossil fuel replacement.
achieve concentration ratios of over 1000 and is Clearly, because the systems can only con-
one of the most efcient congurations of CSP centrate direct sunlight, CSP systems are suited
system. to locations with predominantly clear sky condi-
Very high temperatures can be reached in tions, but there are a number of areas that meet
solar furnaces, where many mirrors are controlled these conditions, including Mediterranean coun-
to reect sunlight onto a single absorber mounted tries, northern Africa, the Middle East, the south
high up on a tower the power tower.The mir- western US, China and Australia. Although CSP
rors are mounted on a two-axis tracking system systems were rst installed commercially in the
and each is controlled by computer to reect and 1990s, a combination of high capital costs and
focus an image of the sun onto an absorber. As resistance to large scale solar plants meant that
an example, a solar power tower plant inaugu- there was then no activity for a decade or so.
rated in Seville in 2007 is rated at 11MW; it has Interest has renewed in the last few years and by
625 heliostats (movable mirrors), each 120 m2, the end of 2007, the total of installed and con-
focusing light onto a tower 115m in height. As tracted CSP plants had reached 2GW in capacity
with the parabolic dish collectors, these systems (Martinot, 2008). It now looks likely that CSP
use a working uid, often a molten metallic salt, will make a signicant contribution to renewable
which is then used to generate steam to feed into energy generation over the next 20 years or so.
a conventional generator. A typical salt might be a
mixture of sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate,
melting around 600C.
Renewable Energy Resources 199
The map shows the prevailing strong winds. The shaded areas indicate regions where the wind energy is attractive for power generation with
average speeds over 5ms1, and average generation over 33% of rated power. Note the importance of marine situations, and beware of non-
site-related generalizations
wind turbines are more challenging from a tech- Thus, the power output of a wind turbine varies
nical point of view, since they need to withstand as the cube of the wind speed.
sea conditions and the power has to be transmit- This means that the power varies substantially
ted back to shore, but the wind speeds are higher as the wind speed changes and careful siting is
and more consistent. A combination of onshore needed to obtain the maximum power output.
and offshore wind farms is expected to make a
major contribution to meeting the target of 20
per cent of Europes energy demand from renew- Siting a wind turbine
able sources by 2020.
Windmills have existed for between one and
two millennia, and although modern turbines
Wind energy assessment have the advantage of aerodynamic design based
on an understanding of air ow and turbulence,
The energy in the wind is the kinetic energy of a all designs have in common that the amount of
moving mass of air. energy they produce is heavily dependent on
where they are sited, since this affects the wind
Kinetic energy = mv2 speed and variability. Placing a wind generator at
the foot of a hill would be pointless, but if it is
where m = mass of the moving air and v = veloc- placed at the top where the wind has been forced
ity (see Figure 7.29) to accelerate by the rise in the ground, it will
work very successfully. Ground drag also makes
Mass of the air = volume density a large difference, as the less there is, the faster
the wind. A wind generator sited on a sheet of
If the air is moving with velocity vms1, the vol- ice or concrete will produce its expected output,
ume of the air passing through 1m2 of area in one but put behind trees or large bushes it will not.
second = vm3. We may notice that open areas, even in our cities,
tend to be windy while forests are relatively calm.
The mass of this air = 1 v , By the same token, wind generators are quite tall
and around 50m above the ground is usually high
where is the density of air. enough to escape the drag factor. Note that issues
The energy in the air which passes in one of drag can strongly inuence the output of small
second is therefore: wind turbines placed on buildings in an urban
environment, due to the effect of the surround-
mv2 = v3 watts/m2 ing buildings.
In order to determine the output potential
for a given site, we need to know the average
wind speed but this varies with height above
Wind velocity Vm/sec the ground. We will discuss the design of wind
turbines in the next section, but as turbine size
increases, the height of the turbine also increases.
Density of air = p kg/m3
Often the measurement of wind speed is made
at a lower elevation (frequently about 10m) than
that of the hub of the turbine which is eventually
Distance moved by air in one second = V metres
installed and a correction must be made based on
an extrapolation from the measurement height.
It turns out that a power law can often give
Figure 7.29 Representation of a column of air a good approximation of the variation in wind
moving past a rotor speed, although this is more useful for open sites
Renewable Energy Resources 201
than for complex terrain. For a given average they come in many shapes and kinds. Two main
wind speed v1 measured at a height h1, we can categories can be dened, horizontal and vertical
derive the wind speed v2 at height h2 from the axis machines, and there are different designs in
following equation: each category.
For machines with a horizontal axis (Figure
v2 = v1[h2/h1]x 7.30) the dominant force is lift and the rotor
blades may be in front of (upwind) or behind the
where x is a coefcient that varies with local tower (downwind). Upwind turbines need a tail
terrain. The value of x is around 0.14 for open or some other mechanism to point them into the
sites but rises with increasing complexity of the wind. Downwind turbines may be quite seriously
terrain and may be around 0.3 for obstructed affected by the tower, which can produce a wind
urban sites. This is easy to understand, since the shadow and turbulence in the path of the blades.
wind at high levels is unaffected by the terrain, Both kinds of machine with a capacity greater
but at lower levels it is slowed by obstructions than about 50kW are turned into the wind by an
and therefore there is a greater differential due to electric motor. Multi-bladed rotors which have a
height in these cases. Of course, the coefcient high torque in light winds are used for pumping
will also vary depending on the actual values water and other tasks calling for low frequency
of h1 and h2 and how they relate to the site and mechanical power. For generating electricity,
more complex mathematical relationships exist turbines having one, two or three blades have
to express this. all been considered over the last 20 years or so.
Single bladed machines are the most structurally
Wind turbines efcient and the blade can be stowed in line with
the tower under high wind conditions to mini-
Wind turbines convert the energy of the wind mize storm damage. However, they have reduced
into socially useful energy, usually electricity, and aerodynamic efciency due to higher tip losses
Upwind with fan tail Upwind with active Upwind with active powered Downwind self-oriented
passive steering steering from side motors steering switched by wind vane or power steered
Betz criterion 59% Glauert criterion tor is rated at 70 per cent efciency this means
0.6
that it converts 70 per cent 0.59 = 41 per cent
0.5 of the wind energy into rotational energy.
0.4
0.3
Commercial Tip speed ratio
Cp
two bladed
Commerical
0.2 three bladed The efciency with which a wind turbine can
Vertical axis
Darrieus type use the wind energy varies according to the wind
0.1 Multiblade wind pump
Savonius rotor
speed. At very low speeds the wind will not turn
0 the rotors, while at very high speeds the rotors
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Tip speed ratio () become more inefcient. Once the rotors start to
turn they rotate more quickly as the wind speed
increases and, to maintain efciency, the ratio of
Figure 7.33 Variation of efciency versus tip speed
the speed of the tips of the rotor compared to
ratio for various types of wind turbine
the wind speed should be kept constant. This tip
speed ratio is an important aspect of the design
of a wind turbine, with the value of the tip speed
t (%)
0 50 100 ratio which gives maximum efciency being
70
30
different for the different types of wind turbine
60 (Figure 7.33).
25
50
Wind speed (mph)
20
40
15
30
10
20
10 5
0 0
0 1000 3000 5000 7000 8760
Hours in the year
Betz Limit
Air owing through a turbine cannot give all
its energy to the rotors, otherwise the air veloc-
ity would be zero in front of the turbine and air
could no longer ow through it. For a continu-
ous stream of air passing through the turbine, the
maximum power the air can deliver to the rotors
is 59 per cent of its kinetic energy. This gure for
the ideal efciency was rst derived by Betz and
is known as the Betz Limit. All real wind turbines
are less efcient than this. When a wind genera- Figure 7.35 Average wind speed data for the UK
Renewable Energy Resources 205
some constraints resulting from the turbines that decaying vegetation in the ooded areas and
we can use for the conversion, coupled with a effects on local fauna and ora. All these effects
high enough volume of water owing through must be balanced when considering whether and
the turbine. Some hydropower systems make use where to build a large hydropower scheme.
of existing natural features such as weirs, but often Hydropower can also be used for systems of
we have to modify the water ow by diverting it a wide range of sizes. Denitions vary, but large
through different channels and/or by building a systems tend to be considered as being over
dam. 10MW in capacity, small systems being between
Hydropower is one of the oldest major uses 100kW and 10MW and those that are smaller
of renewable energy for electricity production than 100kW usually termed micro-hydro sys-
and large hydropower schemes provided about tems. They all work on the same principles but
15 per cent of world electricity demand in 2006 with differences in turbine choices, the voltage
(see Figure 7.2). Large hydropower installations level at which the electricity is taken off and
include some of the largest articial structures in whether they are used to meet local needs or feed
the world and include famous sites such as the into an electricity distribution network.
Grand Coulee Dam in the US (rated at about As with other renewable technologies, the
6.5GW) and the Three Gorges Dam in China technical resource depends on the choices and
(planned to be18.2GW when fully operational assumptions regarding the technology and how
in 2009). Such systems provide large amounts of much of the natural ow is considered to be con-
energy over long periods. However, there are a verted. As an example of the potential of hydro-
limited number of sites where it is possible to power, the World Energy Council estimates that,
build a large dam such as these and the energy at the end of 2005, the total worldwide technical
generated has to be balanced against the disrup- potential of hydropower was at least 16,500TWh/
tion caused and the effects of change of land use. year of which around 2800TWh or 17 per cent
The construction of the Three Gorges Dam has was being exploited (WEC, 2007).
reportedly required the movement of over 1 mil-
lion people from their homes and the ooding
of 1200 towns and villages. It has both environ- Turbine design
mental benets, mainly in that it provides some
control of the Yangtze river which may prevent There are two main categories of turbine which
devastating ooding downriver, and some envi- are used to convert this water power into socially
ronmental disadvantages, for example, the poten- useful power, usually electricity. These are as fol-
tial greenhouse gas emissions resulting from lows:
Water
out
Pelton
Wheel
Water jet Bucket of Pelton
velocity Vj wheel velocity Vb
Nozzle Water
out
Water iet
Figure 7.37 Pelton wheel showing shape of bucket and splitting of outgoing water ow
208 The Future of Energy Use
1 Impulse turbines, where the ow of water hits where M = mass ow rate. The power developed
open turbine blades in a jet and the power is
derives from the kinetic energy of the water.
2 Reaction turbines, where the turbine blades are P = FVb
fully immersed in the water and the power
comes from the pressure drop across the tur- i.e. Power P = 2M (Vj Vb)Vb.
bine.
The power, in the ideal case, is equal to the
The choice of turbine for a particular system total kinetic energy per second in the jet, that
depends on head, ow rate and whether the tur- is 100 per cent efciency. No real Pelton wheel
bine will be fully submerged. can achieve this because of some friction of the
water owing round the bucket and the momen-
Pelton wheels tum of the outlet water not being quite equal to
the momentum of the jet. However, efciencies
A Pelton wheel is an impulse turbine in which a around 90 per cent are achieved in practice. It
jet of water hits a bucket attached to the wheel can be shown that the optimum speed of rota-
rim. The bucket is shaped as shown in Figure tion of the wheel is half that of the speed of the
7.37 so that the jet is divided into two equal water and Pelton wheels are used for high heads
streams and deected from the incoming jet and and high water speeds, but relatively low volumes
out of the bucket.The direction of the water ow of water.
is reversed, giving the water a change of momen-
tum equal to twice the momentum of the jet
relative to the bucket. Francis turbine
The force on the bucket is
Reaction turbines can be rather more ef-
F = 2M (Vj Vb) cient than a Pelton wheel, at the cost of greater
mechanical and hydraulic complexity.The Francis
turbine is shown in outline in Figure 7.38. Water
ows into a casing around the working parts.
The water ow is guided by xed vanes onto the
rotating vanes and the water leaves via the central
outlet. To maximize the throughput of water, the
machinery can be placed in a duct, of the same
diameter as the rotating vanes, and the water then
Stationary ows axially down the duct. The vanes are now
guide vanes
similar to the propeller of a ship or aircraft and
they rotate because of the stream of water passing
over them. Francis turbines can cope with higher
volumes of water than the Pelton wheel, but the
rotation speed is equal to that of the water and so
they are used at medium heads.
Boss
a twice daily rise in sea levels at any given point Generation of electricity only occurs when water
and we can exploit the change in sea level to is owing through the turbines, so the prole is
extract energy from the tidal ow, using similar cyclic in nature. It is possible to combine the two
technology to that described for hydropower. approaches and generate electricity from water
The tidal cycle is about 12 hours 25 minutes, ow in both directions.This adds complexity and
since it depends on the lunar day which is 24 does not increase the overall energy extraction,
hours and 50 minutes long, and this is why the but it is sometimes useful since there is a longer
times of high and low tides change each day by a period of generation in each cycle.
small amount. Although the sun is a much larger It is also possible to generate power from tur-
body than the moon, it is much further away so bines placed directly in the tidal current, although
has less of an effect on the tides than the moon this technology is still at an early stage of devel-
(a little less than half). When the sun, moon and opment.We will consider current ow devices in
Earth line up, the maximum forces are exerted on the section on wave power. These devices would
the oceans and the tide is highest (Spring Tide) be placed where there is a sufciently strong ow,
and there is a correspondingly low tide (Neap such as in a channel between two islands.
Tide) when the forces from the sun and moon Clearly tidal energy can only be exploited by
are in opposite directions. One of the most use- those countries with a suitable coastline and then
ful aspects of tidal energy is that it is predictable only in particular areas. The worlds major tidal
since we know when the tides will occur and power sites are shown in Figure 7.39 and there
their magnitude. However, there is some varia- has been little change in estimated resources
tion due to weather, particularly wind. since this gure was produced. The largest tidal
The difference in sea level is called the tidal power station is still La Rance in France which
range and depends on the gravitational forces is rated at 240MW and was completed in 1966.
and the topography of the land. It can be shown However, there is renewed interest in a number
that the tidal range in deep water is around 0.5m of schemes around the world, including the Bay
and this is not sufcient for us to make use of of Fundy in Canada, which has one of the high-
it. However, where the ow of water is con- est tidal ranges at over 11m and where a dem-
centrated by the land, such as in a river inlet, it onstration project has recently been announced.
increases and can exceed 10m in suitably shaped The UK government is also reconsidering the
estuaries. From a cost perspective a tidal range of Severn Barrage scheme, which has a 7m tidal
at least 5m is generally required to make a site range. With all barrage schemes, the considera-
worthy of consideration. tion is whether the potential to generate energy
The usual approach for a tidal energy plant is outweighs the environmental effects of the plant
to construct a barrage (or dam) across the estuary on the local area and justies the very large con-
mouth in an appropriate location. There are then struction costs.
two ways to control generation. First, as the tide
is rising, water is allowed to ow in through the
barrage and sluice gates are closed at high tide Tidal turbines
to trap the water behind the barrage. When the
water level outside the barrage has dropped suf- For single direction ow, it is common to use
ciently, the water is allowed to ow back through similar turbines to those in hydropower systems,
the turbines, with the difference in height of remembering that the volume of water is large
water on each side of the barrage forming the and the head is relatively low. If we wish to have
required head. In the second case, during the ris- generation from either direction of water ow,
ing tide water is kept on the outside of the barrage we need a turbine that does not change its direc-
and when the difference in water level between tion of rotation when the direction of water ow
inside and outside is sufcient, water is allowed to is altered. A Wells turbine has propeller blades
ow through the turbines into the basin behind. which give the same rotation regardless of ow
210 The Future of Energy Use
Figure 7.39 Tidal ranges at selected sites around the world and estimated power output
direction, and can thus directly drive a generator power systems, with the appropriate head and
from both incoming and outgoing tides. ow rate and remembering that the density of
A turbine to generate electricity from tidal sea water is a little higher than that of fresh water
currents can be considered as similar, at least super- (around 1025kg/m3).
cially, to a wind turbine since both are designed In the case of tidal stream devices, as with
to extract energy from a uid ow. Several varia- wind turbines, the power output varies with the
tions of turbine design have been developed and cube of the uid velocity, so fast moving water
are now being tested, including both horizon- would give a much higher output. However,
tal and vertical axis designs. The drag forces on unlike a wind turbine, the structure would not
a tidal turbine are more severe than those on a experience extreme speeds in gales or gusts and
wind turbine, due to water having a higher den- so would not need to be engineered to cope with
sity than air, and it is more of a challenge to x excessive loads. Since water is much denser than
the turbine securely in the tidal current. Turbines air, 2ms1 water current has the same power den-
xed to the sea bed are favoured in shallow water, sity as a 19ms1 air current and many tidal and
but they are more often simply moored to the sea river sites could generate useful power.Tidal cur-
bed for deeper locations. rents are variable, being zero when the tide turns
twice a day so the load factor on a tidal marine
turbine may only be 20 per cent, that is, its annual
Energy from tidal devices energy output is only 20 per cent of that which it
could give if it operated at full power all the time.
For tidal barrage schemes, the energy output is By contrast, a water turbine in a river whose ow
calculated on the same principles as for hydro- varies little over the year might have a load factor
Renewable Energy Resources 211
of 80 per cent or so, giving four times the annual waves lose much of their power through friction
energy output of the same turbine in a tidal cur- from the sea bed. Even so, coastal waves can have
rent and therefore the economics of a river tur- a very considerable average energy.
bine would be correspondingly more attractive. Figure 7.40 shows the average annual energy
The tidal device also presents more challenges in per metre of wave in various parts of the world.
terms of installation and maintenance due to its As with other renewable energy technologies, the
location. Nevertheless, there are several full-scale calculation of the resource relies on technology
prototypes under test and tidal current devices assumptions and an estimate of the percentage
are suited to providing power to coastal and of the energy in waves that could be extracted
economically. Wavenet, a network of experts on
island locations.
wave energy, have suggested a technical resource
of 520TWh/year for near shore devices and
140750TWh/year for offshore devices, the wide
Wave energy range reecting the fact that the energy extrac-
tion depends on both the wave regime and the
Wave energy is extracted from ocean waves
nature of the device (Wavenet, 2003).
which are generated by the action of wind pass-
ing over a large stretch of water. Anyone who
has been hit by a large wave knows how pow-
erful they can be. The most powerful are those Energy in waves
with a long period (the time taken for successive
peaks to pass a given point) and great height, and The energy in a wave consists of the kinetic
they mainly occur in deep water because inshore energy of the moving water, and the potential
Figure 7.40 Average annual wave energy per metre at selected sites (MWh)
212 The Future of Energy Use
energy associated with the peaks and troughs up in a storm, the amplitude can increase sig-
above and below mean sea level. For simplicity, nicantly, increasing the power greatly. All wave
let us consider a single wave with a wavelength energy devices must be engineered to withstand
(the distance from crest to crest) and a wave these large destructive waves. For about 1 per cent
period T (the time between the passage of one of waves, periods over 11 seconds are found. In
crest and the following crest past a xed point). these waves, the power/metre can exceed 1MW.
The velocity at which the wave energy moves The biggest waves, likely to be encountered once
is given by V = gT/2 and the wavelength is in a hundred years, may have an amplitude of
related to the wave period by = VT = gT2/2. 30m and power of 20MW m1 and few structures
In both these relationships, g is the accelera- would withstand them.
tion due to gravity. Real seas, as opposed to the ideal single wave
The total energy per unit surface area of the considered earlier, consist of a mixture of waves
wave is given by of different lengths and amplitudes. Away from
the shore, waves may approach a device from dif-
E = ga2 ferent directions, so the devices must cope with
a wide variety of waves at any given time and
where is the density of sea water and a is the a much wider variety from calm to storm over
amplitude of the wave (the height of the crest their lifetime.
from mean sea level, or half the height from
trough to crest). The power per metre length of
wavefront is Wave energy devices
P = EV = (1/8) g2a2 T or Wave energy devices can be classied in a num-
ber of ways.The simplest classication is between
P = 3.9a2T (kW) active and passive devices. In active devices,
some element moves with the wave and power
when a is in metres and T in seconds. is extracted from the relative movements of
For a wave of 1m amplitude and a wave the various components. A passive device tries
period of 10 seconds, the power/metre is then to capture as much energy as possible from the
39kW.The length of such a wave would be about wave by presenting a large immovable structure
150m, so these are, for example, the long Atlantic in its path. At a more detailed level, wave power
rollers which sweep into the west coast of Great devices can be sub-divided into rectiers, tuned
Britain. oscillators and un-tuned oscillators or dampers.
This analysis assumes that the waves are in The rectiers convert the energy of the wave
deep water, where the sea bed has no inuence into a head of water and the potential energy
on them. In shallow water, the velocity varies as represented by this head is used to drive a water
the square root of the depth, so waves slow down turbine. Tuned oscillators respond efciently to a
in shallow water. This dependence of velocity on narrow range of wave periods with a fall-off in
depth explains why waves usually arrive paral- efciency for waves of higher or lower periods.
lel to a shore and explains the breaking of waves Un-tuned oscillators or dampers seek to absorb
when the trough is slowed so much that it is the energy from waves of all wavelengths ef-
overtaken by the crest. Long before these effects ciently, although for practical devices they will
occur, the wave is losing energy to the sea bed as absorb some wavelengths more effectively than
it moves over the continental shelf into shallower others.
waters, so waves close to shore are less powerful The most detailed classication divides devices
than waves in deep water. into ramps, oats, aps, air bells and wave pumps.
The power per metre of a wave varies with Ramps are passive devices which allow water to
the square of the amplitude.As waves are whipped run up a sloping ramp into a reservoir and water
Renewable Energy Resources 213
from the reservoir runs back to sea through a tur- ment. However, this should not be taken to sug-
bine. Floats heave up and down on the waves, gest that they are necessarily preferred over the
and the relative motion is used to drive a pump many other options.
or generator. Flaps work by opening to allow a The concept of the Oscillating Water Col-
wave in and then closing to retain the head of umn (OWC) is shown in Figure 7.41. It com-
water in a reservoir. Air bells usually oat on the prises a partially submerged chamber into which
sea and have an open bottom below the water water is forced as the wave approaches, compress-
surface. The effect of a passing wave is to increase ing the air trapped inside the chamber. The air is
the pressure of air inside the bell as the crest allowed to escape through the top (or sometimes
passes and reduce the air pressure as the trough side) of the chamber through a turbine, so gener-
passes. The air escapes out of or into the air bell ating electricity. As the wave recedes, the air space
through a duct containing a turbine. A Wells tur- expands, the pressure drops and air is pulled back
bine can be used to drive a generator from both in to the chamber through the turbine. A Wells
the inward and outward motion of the air. Wave turbine is often used, providing rotation in the
pumps exploit the pressure variations beneath the same direction for both the inward and outward
water surface to pump a uid through a turbine. movement of air. OWCs come in a variety of
An ideal wave device can convert waves of designs and can be used both at the shore line
varying amplitude and direction into useful and near to shore.
energy, whilst being robust enough to withstand Offshore devices are moored to the sea bed
storm conditions at its location. It needs to be and need to respond to different wave heights and
able to be tethered in position and for the gener- directions. The Pelamis wave device is just one
ated electricity to be taken off and transmitted to example and three devices are currently on trial
a distribution point.The best wave conditions are off the coast of Portugal. The Pelamis is named
offshore, but this location presents challenges in after the sea snake and consists of a series of cylin-
terms of installation, mooring, power transmis- drical sections joined together by hinges (Figure
sion and storm resistance. 7.42). The sections can respond to the waves by
There is a wide range of wave energy devices oscillating in both the vertical and horizontal
that have been proposed and it would be impos- directions and the prototype versions are rated at
sible to describe them all here. We will provide 750kW. Each hinge section houses hydraulic rams
a brief summary of two examples, one usually which pump high pressure oil through hydraulic
operated near shore and one offshore, and which motors which in turn drive the electrical gen-
are amongst the closest to commercial deploy- erators. The electricity is transmitted via a single
Top View
Wells turbine
Sea level
Figure 7.43 Average temperature differences between the surface of the ocean and a depth of 1000m
ation of a closed cycle OTEC system is shown appreciable energy outputs and this, of course,
in Figure 7.44. In this case, heat exchangers are also takes energy. Modern demonstration plants
used to transfer the heat from the surface water have provided acceptable net energy outputs, but
to a working uid and, later in the cycle, from the the high capital cost of the systems has meant that
working uid to the cold ocean water pumped there are no major commercial systems operat-
from deep water. OTEC systems can also use ing. It is likely that the rst market will be for
an open cycle where the warm sea water itself systems in the 510MW range, probably linked
is used as the working uid. Whilst the cold sea with some of the other applications described
water is not generally a problem, some chlorina- above, and these may be available in the next ve
tion is needed to prevent biological fouling of the years or so. Perhaps the most important advantage
system from the warm water. of OTEC systems is that they represent a major
Similar to wave energy systems, OTEC plants potential resource for small island states which
can be land-based, near-shore-based or located are currently too dependent on oil imports, once
offshore as either moored or oating platforms. the technical and nancial aspects have been
Land or near-shore systems can be installed in resolved.
relatively sheltered areas to protect them from
storms and high seas and it is possible to oper-
ate them in conjunction with, in particular, other
uses of the cold seawater. However, the water Bioenergy
supply and discharge pipes have to cope with the
stress of wave action in the surf zone at the shore Almost all life-forms need sunlight for their
and may need to be long to take the discharged energy. Photosynthesis by green plants converts
seawater far enough offshore so that it is at the large amounts of sunlight into biological material
correct depth. By contrast, offshore systems have grass, trees, etc. which are rich in energy and
to cope with open ocean conditions and there form the basis of food chains for other creatures.
is the challenge of power delivery from long Human society derives products such as wood or
undersea cables (not dissimilar to the challenges alcohol from these basic photosynthetic materials
faced by offshore wave energy devices). It has also and uses them to meet various human needs.The
been suggested that large, oating OTEC systems fossil fuels which we use at the moment are prod-
could harvest the ocean thermal energy perhaps ucts of photosynthesis many millions of years ago
as self-propelled plantships. They would have to and form an energy bank on which our present
cope with storm conditions and transmitting the society is drawing heavily.
energy back to land would be very challenging. Bioenergy refers to the extraction of energy
Therefore it has been suggested that these plants from recently living plants.There are a number of
might be used to produce fuels such as hydrogen different terms used to describe different aspects
or methanol which could then be transported of bioenergy, with biomass generally used for
more easily. solid sources and biofuels for the liquid or gase-
OTEC power generation can also be coupled ous material, which is usually obtained from the
with other shore-based activities, either by using processing of biomass. Bioenergy is used exten-
the power directly for applications such as desali- sively throughout the world today (see Figure
nation or by using the pumped cold water for 7.1, where traditional biomass represents 13 per
refrigeration, cooling or mariculture (e.g. growth cent of primary energy demand, biofuels 0.3
of phytoplankton and microalgae for use in sh per cent and there is also some contribution of
and shellsh farms).This adds value to the OTEC bioenergy in the power generation category).
installation. The use of fuelwood, crop residue or cow dung
Because the temperature difference between for cooking is widespread in developing coun-
the warm and cold water is rather low, large tries and, as it is not purchased, is often the only
quantities of water need to be pumped to get option for the rural poor. The use of bioenergy
216 The Future of Energy Use
More detailed information on a country basis existing infrastructure. The biomass can be pre-
can be obtained directly from FAOSTAT (Food mixed with the conventional fuel or mixed inside
and Agriculture Organisation of the United the boiler depending on the fuels used. A typical
Nations). co-ring ratio is 5 per cent on an energy basis
(remembering that this will be higher by vol-
ume since biomass has a lower specic energy
Biomass for electricity generation content), although up to 15 per cent is gener-
ally considered to be technically possible without
The second largest use of biomass is for electricity signicant changes to the boiler system. Some
generation.There has been a long history of using attention needs to be paid to the ash from the
the residues from the sugar or wood processing combustion, since some biomass sources have
industries to generate power locally, often in inorganic content such as potassium which can
combined heat and power (CHP) systems. These lead to problems with boiler fouling, but many
are usually relatively low combustion tempera- biomass sources produce a lower volume of ash
ture systems, frequently designed for a particular than coal (NETBIOCOF, 2006). One interest-
biomass source. In Brazil, this biomass is often ing aspect of co-ring is in relation to the use of
bagasse, the residue from sugar cane processing, the y ash, which has traditionally been used as
where about 90kg of bagasse is produced for every a concrete additive. Many regulations only allow
tonne of cane. In recent years, there has also been the use of coal generated y ash and so preclude
a growth in district CHP schemes in countries its use from co-ring plants. There appears to be
such as Sweden and Denmark, where signicant no technical problem with the ash produced from
woody biomass resources exist. CHP systems are wood combustion, but the alkaline residue from
typically designed to meet the required thermal some other biomass sources may compromise its
load, with the electricity output as an additional use in concrete production (IEA, undated).
output, but they are nevertheless an efcient way The economics of co-ring of biomass vary
of utilizing biomass resources. with the cost of both biomass and coal sources,
Incentives have recently been put in place in the local availability of biomass and any incentive
several countries to promote co-ring of biomass programmes in place. It is generally more expen-
alongside conventional coal red power stations. sive to use biomass, but this is offset by the reduc-
This allows some reduction of the CO2 output tion in emissions from the plant. As regulations
of these stations, whilst still making use of the regarding CO2 emissions are strengthened, this
218 The Future of Energy Use
also has an increasing monetary value. Provided implementation is to produce a blend of ethanol
that the biomass proportion is not too large, its and gasoline, rather than move directly to the use
addition does not affect the efciency of the plant of ethanol alone (although some vehicles will run
by a signicant amount. Co-ring is only really on ethanol only). Seventeen countries, including
of interest in combination with coal, so it will Brazil, India and the US, now have mandates for
also be necessary to continue to develop power the blending of ethanol with gasoline (typically
generation plants fuelled only by biomass. 1015 per cent by volume) and biodiesel with
diesel (typically 23 per cent) (Martinot, 2008).
Brazil has operated a mandate for 30 years, with
Biofuels shares of around 2025 per cent ethanol (generally
produced from sugar) alongside other supporting
The nal category of usage comes under the policies. As part of the energy and environmen-
general title of biofuels, where biomass is turned tal targets announced by the EU, the aim was to
into a liquid fuel or into biogas to be used for move to a 10 per cent share of biofuels for trans-
the generation of heat, electricity (in some cases) portation by 2020.This has since been challenged
or as a transportation fuel. This category encom- in terms of sustainability and CO2 reduction (see
passes a wide range of possible sources, processes the discussion in the section on bioenergy and
and uses and so we will just concentrate on the the environment), but nevertheless a substantial
main options. increase in biofuels is to be expected in the next
In terms of publicity and promotional poli- few years.
cies, the use of biofuels (ethanol or biodiesel) for Figure 7.45 shows a schematic of the bio-
transportation is the most widely known applica- chemical route to the production of ethanol,
tion. Many countries, including the US and most which generally uses a fermentation process.
of Europe, have targets for the use of biofuels Bio-conversion processing has been known for
and, as with co-ring, one of the easiest routes to thousands of years, and is used to produce those
Table 7.6 World production of ethanol (hm3) Table 7.7 Production of biodiesel (thousand
tonnes)
Country 2004 2005 2006
Country 2004 2005 2006
Brazil 15.10 16.00 17.00
US 13.40 16.20 18.40 Germany 1035 1669 2681
China 3.65 3.80 3.85 France 348 492 775
India 1.75 1.70 1.90 Italy 320 396 857
France 0.83 0.91 0.95 Malaysia 260 600
Russia 0.75 0.75 0.75 US 83 250 826
Germany 0.27 0.43 0.77 Czech Republic 60 133 203
South Africa 0.42 0.39 0.39 Poland 100 150
Spain 0.30 0.35 0.46 Austria 57 85 134
UK 0.40 0.35 0.28 Slovakia 15 78 89
Thailand 0.28 0.30 0.35 Spain 13 73 224
Ukraine 0.25 0.25 0.27 Denmark 70 71 81
Canada 0.23 0.23 0.58 UK 9 51 445
Total of above 37.60 41.60 45.90 Other EU 6 36 430
Source: WEC, 2007
Total of above 2016 3694 7495
Source: WEC, 2007
important solar products beer, wine and spirits. but a more rapid increase may be expected as
In the Brazilian bioalcohol programme, a proc- more countries mandate its use.
ess similar to distilling spirits is used to ferment Biodiesel is usually produced by esterica-
sugar cane and distil the ethanol; in the US grain tion of animal fats or vegetable oils (see Figure
is used for the same purpose. To ferment woody 7.46).There are about 20 different species of crop
biomass, produced by coppicing energy planta- that can be used to provide vegetable oils, includ-
tions, its cell structure must rst be broken down ing rapeseed, sunower and soybean. The main
by hydrolysis, acids or enzymes to allow fermen- product of the esterication process is FAME
tation to proceed efciently. Table 7.6 shows that (fatty acid methyl ester) which is the precursor
bioethanol production has been increasing at for biodiesel, with glycerol as a byproduct. The
about 10 per cent per year from 2004 to 2006, production of biodiesel has increased rapidly in
recent years (Table 7.7), with palm oil becoming
a major source because of its high energy ratio
of around 8 (Overend, 2007). This has caused
some concern in terms of the cutting down of
forests to plant new palm oil plantations and how
this affects the net CO2 emissions relating to the
biodiesel.
As well as liquid fuels, it is possible to pro-
duce biogas for use in heating systems by a proc-
ess of gasication of a variety of source materials.
In many parts of the world, animal and some-
times human wastes are used in biogas plants.
The anaerobic digestion of these wastes produces
Source: European Biofuels Technology Platform, 2008 a methane rich gas and leaves behind a benign
residue which can be used as compost. There are
Figure 7.46 Production route for biodiesel millions of farm- or village-sized biogas plants in
220 The Future of Energy Use
operation around the world, particularly in China where it is to be used to generate heat, electric-
and India. But collecting waste from animals ity or motive power. Biomass has a lower energy
which roam freely can be so time-consuming density than fossil fuels and so requires a larger
that biogas production is no longer worthwhile mass to produce the same power level. It is gen-
and it is only really practicable where animals are erally true that biomass resources should be used
kept in pens. Nonetheless enough gas to satisfy close to the location where they are grown in
the familys cooking and lighting needs can be order to minimize the CO2 (and cost) levels
produced from the waste of the livestock owned associated with this process step. This has some
by a typical peasant farmer. This is particularly implications when considering the possibilities of
true where fairly rapid cooking is the norm, as poor growth conditions due to weather condi-
with the Chinese wok. In general, the richer the tions in a particular area at certain times. Whilst
farmer, the more animals the family will have, the import of biomass from outside the affected
and hence the more likely it is that a biogas plant region would allow continued generation, it may
could supply the family with its cooking and result in signicant environmental impacts in
lighting needs. terms of CO2 and other emissions. There is also
considerable variation with regard to the biomass
source used. For example, ethanol made from
Bioenergy and the environment corn is only marginally environmentally bene-
cial with only about 40 per cent more energy
Photosynthesis results in the absorption of car- being produced than is used in manufacture and
bon dioxide and the emission of oxygen, so the delivery, whereas in Brazil the production of eth-
growth of plants removes carbon dioxide from anol from corn has an energy ratio of about 8
the atmosphere.This is re-emitted, possibly accom- (eight times more energy produced than used in
panied by methane, when they die and decay. the supply chain) (Overend, 2007).
The planting of trees is often regarded as a means Of course, the process by which the energy
of counteracting the increasing atmospheric is generated should be as efcient as possible.
concentrations of carbon dioxide and any reduc- Because of the potential for emissions and pol-
tion in the area of high productivity plants in the lutants, the combustion of biomass should be
tropical forests and grasslands is a cause for con- carefully controlled. Nevertheless, biomass con-
cern in its effect on the natural carbon cycle. tains little or no sulphur, so the acid emissions of
The generation of bioenergy through com- sulphur compounds are avoided. The production
bustion or other processes also releases the stored of nitrogen oxides can also be reduced consid-
CO2 in the material, so the simple view of bioen- erably in comparison with fossil fuels. Burning
ergy is that it is CO2 neutral (i.e. what is absorbed biomass as, for instance, on a garden bonre can
during growth of the biomass is released during produce large quantities of noxious chemicals,
the energy generation process). However, this some of which are carcinogenic, but if burning
fails to take into account the energy required to is properly controlled, in a furnace with ue gas
manage the growth of the biomass (if fertilizers cleaning, the overall acid emissions can be very
are used, for example), to harvest it, to process it small. The more advanced processing of raw bio-
(e.g. drying) and to transport it to the site of use. mass can be designed to emit very little into air,
Therefore, in the best case, bioenergy is a small water or land.
net emitter of CO2, but the variability of the fac- Perhaps the most contentious issue with
tors above mean that some care should be taken respect to the use of biomass (and, at present, bio-
to ensure that the overall process is less carbon fuels in particular) relates to the competition for
intensive than the energy source that is being land between energy crops and food crops (both
replaced. for human consumption and animal feedstock).
This is especially important when consider- A potential conict arises because, as bioenergy
ing the transportation of the resource to the site implementation increases, more land is required
Renewable Energy Resources 221
for the growth of energy crops. If that land was food. There is also the potential for the devel-
previously in use for growing food, then that puts opment of the productivity of energy crops in
pressure on the supply of food with the potential terms of output per unit area, by judicious choice
for shortages and price rises. Some experts argue and modication of crop characteristics. As the
that the biofuel development policies, designed crops, land use and food requirements change
to promote the increased use of biofuels for envi- over time, the annual resource will also change.
ronmental reasons, are having just that effect. It is Nevertheless, it is clearly a large resource, with a
clear to see that a farmer, especially where there technical potential several times larger than the
are few prots to be made, will choose to grow current world energy use, and bioenergy can
the crop that provides the most income and if make a substantial contribution to meeting our
there are subsidies for energy crops but not for future energy needs, especially in sectors such
food crops, then he is likely to change his crop. In as transportation which other renewable energy
some cases, no change is required and it is only technologies do not specically address.
necessary to sell the corn or maize to a different Overend (2007) suggests that the 2006 usage
buyer. What is not clear at the moment is how of bioenergy amounts to around 24EJ from all
big an effect this is likely to have on the price and sources (note that because of the wide range of
supply of food in the long term. applications, it is necessary to convert all outputs
However, in the short term, a move from food to a single energy unit and the assumptions in
to energy crops also has potential environmental doing this have some impact on the total).This
implications. First, since different plants capture does not agree fully with the estimate of the IEA
different amounts of CO2 during growth, the Bioenergy Programme, who estimate a bioenergy
change of land use can affect the CO2 absorption contribution of around 4555EJ in 2004 (IEA,
potential of that land, resulting in the possibil- 2007). It is likely that the difference occurs in
ity of increasing the effective CO2 burden of a the way in which traditional biomass is counted,
particular energy crop depending upon what it since this is a non-commercial sector and it is
has replaced. Second, considering only the com- hard to derive the gures. This illustrates the dif-
mercial imperatives of the market has led to the culty of calculating an overall resource, although
transport of bioenergy resources over long dis- it is much easier to consider resources for spe-
tances and this can sometimes lead to the CO2 cic countries or regions. For example, Overend
footprint of that resource being higher than the describes the assessment of the US bioenergy
fossil fuel that it replaces.There is ongoing assess- resource and indicates that there is potential
ment of the environmental impacts associated for some 20EJ of bioenergy per year using cur-
with the distortion of the market brought about rent technology. The IEA argues that worldwide
by ambitious targets for the introduction of bio- bioenergy production could reach 200400EJ
fuels and some regions are stepping back from per year by 2050.
the targets whilst these issues are resolved. It may
be that restrictions are placed on the source of
the bioenergy to be used in particular countries
so as to ensure positive gains in respect of CO2 Geothermal energy
emissions.
Geothermal energy is essentially the extraction
of heat that is stored in rock, where that heat
The potential of bioenergy originates from the kinetic energy of the accret-
ing particles that formed the Earth or, partially,
Quantication of the overall bioenergy resource from the decay of long-lived radioisotopes such
is difcult, since it depends on evaluating a wide as uranium238. Geothermal energy has been used
variety of sources and on assumptions relating to for many centuries, in terms of people using hot
land usage in the face of growing demand for springs for washing or bathing, with electricity
222 The Future of Energy Use
rst being generated from geothermal sources in reservoir) of that uid.The heat source can be the
the early part of the 20th century. Unlike most normal conduction of heat through the rocks or
of the other renewable sources discussed in this a high temperature source such as an intrusion of
chapter, geothermal energy is not dependent magma reaching to relatively shallow depths. The
on the climate but the ability to extract it does uid is normally water, either in liquid or vapour
depend on the geological formation and so is form depending on the temperature and pressure.
location dependent. In some cases, there is a naturally occurring aqui-
Temperatures at the centre of the Earth are fer where the water is continuously replenished
estimated to be around 40005000C and heat and all we need to do is to tap into that reservoir
ow is mainly by convection currents. This is a and bring the uid to the surface. In other cases,
very efcient method of transferring heat and the water is pumped down the well, heated and
so the temperature difference with depth is rela- then extracted. For this type of system, granite is
tively small. At the base of the continental crust the favoured rock system since it has low hydrau-
(the solidied mass of rocks that forms the sur- lic conductivity (and so the injected water is not
face of the Earth, temperatures are in the range of lost) but retains heat well.
2001000C, depending on location. Heat trans-
fer through the crust is by conduction and this
leads to a signicant temperature gradient with Electricity generation from geothermal
depth of around 2530C/km. Thus, assuming energy
a mean annual temperature of around 15C, a
3km well would have a bottom temperature of For high temperature elds, electricity can be
around 90100C. It is unusual to consider a well generated in a conventional steam turbine, using
of greater depth than about 3km due to the prac- steam directly from the geothermal well. In recent
tical difculties of drilling such a well. years, binary systems have become popular. In
However, in certain locations, where there is these systems, the steam or hot water from the
volcanic plate activity or the rock formations are well is used to heat another uid, usually organic,
suitable, higher temperatures can be accessed at with a lower boiling point and a high vapour
shallower depths. For electricity production from pressure at low temperatures. This uid is then
geothermal steam, we generally need well tem- used in the turbine. This allows geothermal elds
peratures in excess of 150C and so most large with temperatures in the range of 85150C
geothermal plants are sited in areas around the to be utilized for electricity production. Typical
margins of the tectonic plates. In these regions, it plant sizes are a few MW up to about 50MW, but
is possible for wells at accessible depths to reach large elds can accommodate several plants.
over 350C. High temperature geothermal elds The utilization of the geothermal energy can
tend to be found in places where there is signi- be improved by using a CHP approach, where
cant volcanic activity such as the so-called Ring the output is both electricity and hot water, but
of Fire around the Pacic or the East African Rift this relies on a local need for the heat produced
Valley. For well temperatures lower than 100C, since it cannot be transmitted over long distances.
the geothermal energy is usually used directly Since geothermal power plants make use of heat
for heating purposes and this can be done in a stored in the Earth, the geothermal power plant
much wider range of locations. Nevertheless, the has an inherent storage capacity. That allows the
right characteristics of rock formations (porosity, output to be controlled to follow demand, rather
hydraulic conductivity) are required if meaning- than being subject to weather conditions like
ful amounts of heat are to be extracted. Coarse many other renewable technologies.
grained volcanic ashes and some sandstones and There are, of course, environmental impacts
limestones show high hydraulic conductivity. from geothermal plants which can be summa-
To extract heat from the Earth, we need a rized as follows:
heat source, a thermal uid and an aquifer (or
Renewable Energy Resources 223
expansion of the liquid back into a gas requires water. It does require an external source of power,
heat absorption from the surroundings (see Fig- typically electricity, and for this technology to
ure 7.47). be viewed as completely renewable this would
In this system the work is applied by the have to be generated from other renewable tech-
compressor. The service that is needed, either nologies. There are both economic and nancial
heating or cooling, will determine the congura- benets to be accrued by the use of heat pump
tion of the system. For example, if space cooling technologies, although these will vary depend-
is required then the evaporator will be located in ing upon location and type of fuel currently used
the space and the condenser in the sink. If heat- (EST, 2008).
ing is required then this will be reversed with the Heat pump technology can make a contribu-
condenser located in the space and the evapora- tion to climate goals. Within the EU heat pumps
tor in the sink. A heat pump can deliver both that use the ground or water as source and sink
heating and cooling services. are classied as a renewable technology. The air-
Practical heat pump systems incorporate source heat pump requires a considerable amount
a reversing valve which allows the direction of of electricity to function and the EU has set a
travel of the refrigerant to be reversed. Such sys- standard minimum COP of 2.9 for this technol-
tems use either the atmosphere or the ground ogy to be considered a renewable technology
or water as the source or sink and their deploy- (OJ, 2007). Heat pumps have been included in
ment depends upon local factors. Deployment a proposed directive that classies which tech-
strategies include vertical techniques that use a nologies can be included in the new renewable
borehole drilled into the earth, rock or an under- targets set for member states (European Commis-
ground water source and horizontal techniques sion, 2008). The Directive is designed to address
that use coils buried about 1m below the surface all sectors of the renewable energy industry with
of the ground or immersed in a body of water, the goal of helping member states to reach the
such as a lake. These strategies rely on the fairly Commissions target of 20 per cent of Europes
constant temperature found underground and energy being produced from renewable sources
within water bodies and it is the temperature by 2020. Measures to remove barriers to growth
between source and sink that allows heat energy for renewables are included.
transfer. In areas where it is difcult to use ver- One further issue with heat pumps concerns
tical or horizontal strategies, an air-source heat the refrigerant. The most common refrigerants
pump can be used. are hydroourocarbons (HFCs). Leakage of the
Heat pumps require an external source of refrigerant either during operation or decom-
power to drive the compressor. Typically this is missioning can contribute to global warming as
an electric motor for stationary systems (space many synthetic refrigerants have a high Global
heating and cooling) or a mechanical source for Warming Potential (GWP) (Forsen, 2005). EU
mobile systems (vehicle air conditioning). The Directive 2006/40/EC phases out the use of the
performance of a heat pump system is called the refrigerant R-134a from air conditioning systems
Coefcient of Performance (COP). In terms of in motor vehicles by 2011 and Regulation (EC)
space heating, a heat pump can transfer up to No. 842/2006 introduces controls for HFCs by
three or four times the amount of heat when setting minimum standards for inspection and
compared to the heat generated by a conven- recovery. This ironically has focused interest
tional resistance heater, for the same energy on alternative substances and research has been
input. This does not mean that the heat pump undertaken into the use of carbon dioxide, a gas
is more efcient. Rather, it reects that a heat that was used in the early days of refrigeration
pump works in a different way and is an efcient but was later abandoned as it required high pres-
means of thermal energy transfer. A heat pump sures and the development of synthetic refriger-
can be considered as a renewable resource as it ants made the production of equipment much
uses heat stored in the atmosphere or ground or easier. Although carbon dioxide is a greenhouse
Renewable Energy Resources 225
gas, it is signicantly less damaging than synthetic variance with time, whether known (e.g. tidal)
refrigerants. or more random (e.g. wind, solar). The energy
The EU has undertaken research into alterna- system has to cope with that variability in some
tive substances for heat pumps including carbon way, for example, by:
dioxide, ammonia and hydrocarbons through the
Sherpa (Sustainable Heat and Energy Research combining sources with different and com-
for Heat Pump Application) project. With the plementary variability;
market expected to double by 2010, nding an providing storage of electricity or heat to
environmentally-friendly working uid is a pri- modify the resultant supply prole;
ority. A doubling of the market would increase providing sufcient back-up capacity from
the annual energy and CO2 emission savings to conventional generation to meet load require-
100TWh and 40 million tons respectively. The ments when the renewable output is low.
project, which ended in 2007, developed and
tested prototype models using environmentally The most obvious renewable technology that
benign substances such as carbon dioxide and does not fall into this category is bioenergy,
also ensured that they would be compliant with which is similar to conventional fuels in that it
future legislation, as synthetic refrigerants such as is stored energy. We therefore have the possibility
Freon R22 will be phased out by 2010 in the EU of combining bioenergy with other renewable
(Thonon, 2006). sources to even out some of the variability. Some
Heat pumps offer considerable environmen- technologies, such as large hydropower schemes,
tal and energy security benets. In many respects concentrated solar power and geothermal, have
it is a mature technology, although the introduc- the potential to include storage in their mode
tion of environmentally benign refrigerants is a of operation. There have also been considerable
technical challenge. The inclusion of heat pumps improvements in the forecasting of output from
within the renewable target will help to ensure a both wind and solar systems as experience is
more rapid take-up of the technology as its ver- gained. Furthermore, large penetrations of wind
satility, in terms of both heating and cooling and in countries such as Denmark have not shown
the variety of sources and sinks it can use, mean the detrimental effects on the grid that some had
that it has a wide geographical spread. predicted.
Coping with large amounts of renewable
energy in the supply system may require some
rethinking of our current approach to energy
Implementation of renewable supply. It has been argued that having electrical
energy technologies generation systems with intermittent output will
require this to be balanced by a large amount of
This chapter has considered the individual renew- conventional generation to meet the times when
able technologies in terms of their principles of the renewable system output is reduced. A recent
operation, the resources available and their cur- study for the UK showed that, for an assumed
rent status, but there are some issues relating to wind penetration of up to 20 per cent on the
implementation that apply to several, if not all, electricity grid, the additional balancing reserve
technologies. So it is more efcient to discuss to meet short term uctuations was only around
these together here. 510 per cent of the installed wind capacity
(UKERC, 2006). Whilst individual systems are
variable in output and individual demand is also
Variability of output variable, the aggregation of system outputs and
demand smooth out those variations. So, the vari-
Most renewable technologies rely on a source of ation of output of a wind farm in Cornwall may
energy that is climate dependent and has some be offset, say, by the output of a housing estate
226 The Future of Energy Use
with solar photovoltaic systems in Birmingham. Although anecdotal, there is some evi-
Or on a wider basis, wave power systems off the dence that microgeneration, where the user
Norwegian coast may complement a CSP plant is involved in the production of their own
in Spain. We would expect more use of district energy, encourages behavioural change in
based schemes, particularly for heating, so as to terms of energy efciency, recycling, etc.
balance out demand. There is also an option for A distribution of energy sources, system sizes
demand management to modify the load prole and system locations provides a more secure
to meet the supply prole rather than the tradi- system, in that loss of one system or group of
tional approach of changing the supply to meet systems does not impact severely on the over-
the load. all energy supply.
The variability of output can be reduced by
aggregation of generation in different locations.
Distributed generation or
microgeneration
Capacity factor
Whilst some renewable energy systems are very
large, a general feature of all sources is that they The capacity factor (or sometimes load factor)
can be implemented on a range of scales, some of an electricity generator expresses the output
of them down to the level of an individual user. of the generator over a given period, usually
Where the resource itself is distributed, it makes one year, compared to the output of a generator
little sense to adopt the old scheme of large operating at the nameplate rating throughout the
central power stations. The most efcient way same period. For a conventional generator, where
of harnessing as much energy as possible is in a it is theoretically possible to operate at full power
distributed form, which also happens to be the continuously by providing the requisite amount
way in which the energy is used. Technologies of fuel, the capacity factor gives a measure of how
such as large hydropower, large tidal and some reliable the generator is (since any downtime will
geothermal plants already have a concentration reduce the output) and how the generator is uti-
of resource in a specic location. Technologies lized in the overall system. For example, gas red
such as concentrated solar power require large generators which are used for rapid response to
installations in order to reach the high tempera- changing load demands may only be utilized for
tures required. But the other technologies (wind, short periods when demand is high and so will
solar PV, solar heating, bioenergy, wave power, have a relatively low capacity factor, even though
tidal and marine currents, etc.) all occur in a dis- they may be very reliable and have good conver-
tributed fashion. Where the implementation is at sion efciency.
the level of the individual household, commercial For systems based on renewable sources, the
building or small community and the generation generator only runs at nameplate rating when the
technology is connected at the user level (e.g. low energy source is equal to the value at which the
voltage grid), then this is often termed microgen- generator is rated. For example, a wind turbine
eration. rated at 1MW for wind speeds of 14 ms1 only
This distributed approach to energy genera- provides 1MW of output at this wind speed and
tion and supply has a number of advantages: above (up to the maximum design speed of, say,
25ms1). For lower wind speeds, the output is
It reduces the need for transmission of energy lower, but this does not indicate a malfunction of
over long distances and therefore the accom- the turbine or lack of utilization of the electric-
panying losses. ity generated (as would be the case for a fossil
It allows the use of the most appropriate renew- fuelled generator). Similarly, a 100kW PV system
able technology at each site. only produces 100kW when the intensity of the
sunlight is 1kWm2 and the array temperature is
Renewable Energy Resources 227
25C (or some combination that gives the same expenditure relates to capital cost since the fuel
result), but in this case we also know that there is provided by nature. There are also some ongo-
will be no output in the hours of darkness. Thus, ing operation and maintenance costs, which vary
the system will exhibit a low capacity factor, even depending on the nature of the system, but these
if it is working exactly as designed. are generally much lower than the initial installa-
For a renewable energy system, the capacity tion cost. This is in contrast to conventional fossil
factor generally gives us some information about fuelled power stations where the ongoing costs of
the resource at the site not the quality of the fuel and operation tend to dominate. The effect
generator. For example, a site with a high aver- of this on the derived costs of energy are dis-
age wind speed will have a higher capacity fac- cussed in more depth in Chapter 2, but the main
tor than one with a low average wind speed, for conclusion is that standard economic approaches
the same turbine design. Thus, the UK, with its favour expenditure in the future rather than now,
better wind regime, tends to have higher capac- that is technologies with future fuel costs instead
ity factors (at around 30 per cent) than those in of initial capital costs. By contrast, addressing
mainland Europe. In particular, the capacity fac- the future energy needs of the planet whilst also
tor does not provide a measure of the efciency addressing the environmental needs favours action
of the system. It also cannot be used to predict now rather than in the future, especially where
variability. Two different systems can have the those future fuel costs are difcult to predict. We
same capacity factor but widely different genera- need to be able to factor in the environmental,
tion proles. Therefore the capacity factor is not security and social costs when making decisions
a good measure for renewable energy systems on which energy sources to choose.
and, whilst it is necessary to take into account
the generation prole, it should not be used as
a direct comparison with a conventional system
where fuel is constantly available. Summary
This chapter has described a wide range of
Costs renewable technologies for the generation of
energy. We have concentrated on existing uses
Costs of renewable energy technologies have not of that energy, in the form of electricity or heat,
been included in this chapter, for two main rea- and not on what might be done in the future
sons. First, the energy cost arising from any par- (e.g. hydrogen production, discussed in more
ticular system is highly dependent on the design detail in Chapter 8). It is clear that there has
of the system and the quantity of the resource (i.e. been rapid progress both in the technology and
the location). Second, the many market develop- in the implementation of renewable energy over
ment schemes, coupled with research and devel- the last decade and that much more is needed in
opment activities, mean that the costs of certain the coming years. We have provided a snapshot
renewable technologies (particularly PV, CSP of the current market status of many of the tech-
and marine) are likely to change quite signi- nologies in the period 20052007, since there is
cantly over the coming few years. There are sev- always some delay in publishing market numbers,
eral publications which address the current costs but, because of the rapid changes in this sector,
of renewable technologies in more depth than is we encourage interested readers to seek out the
possible in this book, for example, the Renewables latest versions of the reviews detailed in the refer-
2007 Global Status Report, (REN21, 2007) ences in order to update the numbers presented.
Nevertheless, a few general remarks about Each different technology has different features
cost issues relating to renewable energy systems and operates in different locations, with perhaps
can be made. For most renewable technolo- only solar photovoltaics, solar thermal, wind,
gies, with the exception of bioenergy, the main microhydro and bioenergy being widely available
228 The Future of Energy Use
around the world, but this allows the best solu- and external costs, status, Progress in Photovoltaics:
tion to provide our energy needs in any given Research and Applications, vol. 14, pp275280
situation. What has become clear in the last few Green, M. A., Emery, K., Hishikawa,Y. and Warta, W.
years is that renewable technologies should not (2008) Solar cell efciency tables (Version 32),
Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications,
be seen as competing with one another, rather
vol. 16, pp435440
that we will need most of these technologies to
Grubb, M. J. and Meyer, N. I. (1993) Wind energy:
be employed to their fullest possible extent in Resources, systems and regional strategies, in
the coming years. It is important that substantial Johansson T. B. et al eds., Renewable Energy, Sources
progress in implementation is made in the period for Fuels and Electricity, Washington, DC: Island
up to 2020, so setting a rm foundation for even Press
greater implementation to meet our climate tar- Hill, R., OKeefe, P. and Snape, C. (1995) The Future
gets in 2050. of Energy Use, London: Earthscan
IEA (2006) World Energy Outlook, Paris: International
Energy Agency
IEA (2007) Bioenergy, Potential Contribution of
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Renewable Energy Resources 229
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8
Energy Futures
in the form of heat.The byproduct of this chemi- electric power, is passed through water, transform-
cal reaction is water. Hydrogen offers the poten- ing it into its component elements of hydrogen
tial to produce carbon free energy. Some believe and oxygen.The hydrogen effectively carries part
that hydrogen will be the fuel of the future. For of the energy used in the process. In other words
example, Rifkin envisages a future world where hydrogen is an energy carrier. When hydrogen is
hydrogen is the dominant fuel (Rifkin, 2002). recombined with oxygen, energy is released and
However, the problem with the notion of a water formed. This seems like a virtuous circle
hydrogen energy economy is that while there where hydrogen is created and its recombination
are clear environmental benets, hydrogen is not produces useful energy and no harmful byprod-
readily available in its free form and has to be ucts. However, the energy input to the process
produced. This requires energy. has to be generated from an energy source. If,
Hydrogen can be produced from water by for example, fossil fuels were used to generate
electrolysis. In this process, energy, in the form of the power needed for electrolysis, then damag-
Energy Futures 233
ing emissions would be produced, reducing the heat and mechanical work or with a fuel cell to
potential benets of the process. produce electricity. Figure 8.1 shows the variety
Another method of producing hydrogen of sources that can be used to produce hydrogen
involves reforming natural gas by removing the and the variety of uses to which it can be put.
carbon atom. The byproduct is carbon dioxide. The use of hydrogen and fuel cells in trans-
Electrolysis and reformation are the most com- port systems has attracted considerable interest as
mon methods of hydrogen production, but each it offers the opportunity to have pollution free
has its drawbacks. Reformation requires methods transport systems that would bring considerable
for storing carbon dioxide, such as Carbon Cap- benets to urban areas. This has been discussed
ture and Storage (CCS). Electrolysis would also in Chapter 4. Although this offers consider-
require CCS, or the use of renewable or nuclear able environmental benets in terms of reduced
sources for electricity production. As discussed greenhouse gas emissions and urban pollution,
later in this section it can be more efcient to there are questions about the efciency of the
use electricity generated by renewable capacity process as energy is needed to store hydrogen in
directly as opposed to using it to produce hydro- a form suitable for mobile purposes. Figure 8.2
gen. Other methods for hydrogen production shows the number of steps needed, each requir-
include coal gasication which would require ing an energy input, before the hydrogen is suf-
CCS, biological production through a bioreac- ciently compressed or liqueed for onboard
tor or through thermal decomposition or ther- storage in a vehicle fuel tank. This is shown on
molysis. These methods for hydrogen production the left hand side of Figure 8.2. Each step needed
are shown in Table 8.1 along with a summary of to make hydrogen suitable for onboard storage
benets and barriers. requires an energy input which effectively lowers
As a fuel, hydrogen is versatile. For example, it the efciency of the overall cycle.The right hand
can be used in a combustion process to produce side of Figure 8.2 shows a route using electricity
Note: Sector size shown has no connection with current or expected markets
Figure 8.1 Hydrogen: Primary energy sources, energy converters and applications
234 The Future of Energy Use
directly to power a vehicle. Again there are losses provide heat and power to residential properties.
associated with battery charging, but the overall Commercial systems, running on natural gas, have
loss is less than that of the hydrogen route. been developed with power ratings ranging from
Figure 8.2 only considers one aspect of a pos- 1 to 4.5MW. The electrical efciency of these
sible hydrogen economy and ignores the issue of systems is around 40 per cent, which is compara-
vehicle range. If, in the future, both battery and ble to thermal plants. By using the heat generated
hydrogen storage technologies were able to offer by the fuel cell the overall system efciency can
ranges equal to, or greater than, that of conven- be as high as 80 per cent (Carrette et al, 2001).
tional vehicles then the battery route would be If this technology were coupled to hydrogen
the most efcient. Although the range of both production methods that used either renewable,
electrical and hydrogen powered vehicles has nuclear or fossil fuel systems with CCS, then that
improved, more development is needed in order approach would provide a clear environmentally
to match that of hydrocarbons. In addition there benign niche role for fuel cell plants.
are issues for hydrogen related to onboard stor- It is this conguration that offers a view of
age. Storage options for hydrogen are shown in how hydrogen can play an effective role in the
Table 8.2. High pressure or cryogenic methods renewable energy economy. Renewables are best
offer the most promising options at present but realized at the local level and require a devel-
there are safety issues to be resolved. However, as opment strategy that is based on the principles
discussed in Chapter 4, considerable investment of capture/harvest-when-available and store-
will be needed in infrastructure. until-required. As discussed in Chapter 7 renew-
The example of the vehicle sector does raise ables are variable both in terms of location and
broader questions about an energy economy time. Although some broad assumptions can be
based on hydrogen. It is clear that at times where made about availability, matching the resource to
power is available from renewable capacity and real time need, the current basis of operation of
there is a need then it is likely to be more ef- the energy system, is not possible for a system
cient to use that power directly. Hydrogen can that uses intermittent supplies. This implies that
be produced and stored for use at a later time the structure of a renewable energy economy is
provided a method for capturing renewable local and relies on the local resource base. Figure
resources providing the additional energy cost is 8.3 sets out an overview of a renewable energy
recognized and integrated into system develop- economy that merges aspects of both the hydro-
ment. Hydrogen stored from excess renewable gen and the electron economy. Note that Figure
capacity can be used to generate power.There are 8.3 illustrates the case for electricity. However, a
times when the electron economy is likely to be system could be developed that would include
a better option than the hydrogen economy and heat.
vice-versa. Although there are issues around the
use of fuel cells and hydrogen for the vehicle sec-
tor, they are used to produce electricity for resi-
dential or commercial purposes. In this instance
the need to minimize the size and weight of the
equipment is not as pressing.
As discussed in Chapter 4 fuel cells are mod-
ular, meaning that they can be built to meet par-
ticular electrical loads. These constructions are
known as fuel cell plants. Fuel cell plants have
the advantage, when used for on-site power gen-
eration, of lower pollutant emissions, comparable
efciencies to thermal generators and are virtu-
ally silent. Fuel cell plants have been developed to Figure 8.3 Hydrogen and electron economies
236 The Future of Energy Use
In Figure 8.3 renewable technologies includ- ful system development. As with any technology
ing wind, solar, photovoltaic, wave, tidal and bio- transfer we cannot assume a single direction and
mass are used to collect and harvest energy. If, for system developers will have to ensure that tech-
example, the supply from the renewable capac- nologies are appropriate to the capacity of the
ity exceeds demand then the excess, both heat user and the available resource base and are easily
and power, can be used to produce hydrogen. expanded as capacity grows. Research into local-
Effectively this is a form of energy storage. When ized solutions do show the viability of smaller
demand exceeds supply then the hydrogen can intelligent systems and micro-grids and Plug and
be used to generate electrical power and heat. It Play technological approaches that allow a sys-
can also be used for direct purposes such as trans- tem to evolve as users gain condence in both
portation. The management of the system would the technology and their ability to manage the
be undertaken by an intelligent grid that would system (Watson et al, 2006, Abu-Sakarkh et al,
manage the different resources. Although this is 2005).
indicative of the role that hydrogen could play in In summary hydrogen offers the potential to
a renewable energy economy, development work produce clean energy. But this comes at a cost.
has been done in connecting together different In thinking about an overall approach to future
types of renewable electricity producing technol- energy system development then, it is clear that
ogies and managing then through a smart electri- hydrogen has a role to play. However, because of
cal grid system. At present these operate at a small some of the inefciencies in producing hydrogen
scale, although there is potential to scale-up these with existing technologies, it is likely that hydro-
technologies. This approach to intelligent man- gen will, initially, be most successfully deployed
agement can also be applied to heat networks. in niche and specialist applications. If an effec-
However it is unlikely that systems such as tive and safe method of onboard storage can be
this will be developed in a nished form. The found, then hydrogen may have a signicant role
most likely development trajectory will be one in the transportation sector. In the longer term
that begins with smaller systems that have the hydrogen can play a key role of system develop-
potential to evolve. Experience with renewable ment, not as the focus of the system, but one of
technologies is varied. The assumption in the a number of strategies for ensuring continuing
existing system is that the user is essentially pas- access to a range of energy services.
sive, with energy services available on demand.
With the system shown in Figure 8.3 we do
know that there must be greater involvement in
system development. Lessons learned from small Market mechanisms and
scale renewable projects identify a number of
points for successful deployment and develop-
de-carbonizing the energy
ment. These can be summarized as: system
Needs assessment: ensuring that a clear under- The Kyoto Protocol introduced a market-based
standing of energy needs is generated. approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Energy mapping: knowing what local energy The thinking behind a Cap and Trade system is
resources exist. that it will drive innovation and those companies
Support systems (technical, human and nan- that can develop innovative low carbon tech-
cial) that are needed. nologies will become market leaders, not only
Appropriate level: dening the entry level benetting from income derived from the sale
(OBrien et al, 2007). of their products but also from income derived
from selling carbon credits which they no longer
Essentially this means that learning, both of need. On the face of it this would seem to be a
developers and users, is a key feature of success- no-brainer with everyone, including the envi-
Energy Futures 237
ronment, winning. The argument is that trad- number of allowances cannot exceed the cap.
ing spurs innovation and eventually this will lead Over time the level of the cap is lowered.
to massive reductions in carbon and the gradual Project Based or Offsets is where emission cred-
emergence of low carbon energy systems. This its can be earned by developing projects that
section will evaluate the effectiveness of carbon produced emission reductions that would not
trading as it appears to be the only option on the have occurred if the project had not been
table. At present the largest carbon trading system, undertaken.
the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), is
operated within Europe. It is now clear that the These mechanisms have become the centrepiece
US administration also favours a Cap and Trade of the market-based approach to reducing green-
system. This could mean that future approaches house gas (GHG) emissions in the Kyoto Proto-
to energy will have a signicant component of col. Carbon markets and trading have become an
Cap and Trade in their architecture. increasingly important aspect of the mitigation
challenge (Lohmann, 2006).
Emission trading
What is carbon trading?
Emission trading is an administrative approach
to pollution control that provides an economic Carbon trading can be dened as a transaction
incentive for emission reductions. The rst major where one party pays another party in return for
emissions trading programme was adopted in GHG emission assets that the buyer can use to
1976 by the US Environmental Protection meet its objectives. There are two main catego-
Agency. It allowed new polluting plants to be ries of transactions:
built in exchange for offsets that reduced air
pollution by a greater amount than other sources Allowance-based transactions, in which the buyer
in the same region. The view that markets could purchases emission allowances issued by regu-
provide more cost effective solutions to dealing lators under cap and trade regimes, such as
with pollution than regulation culminated in the AAUs under the Kyoto Protocol, or EUAs
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, which set under the EU ETS. Such schemes combine
up a national sulphur dioxide trading programme environmental performance (dened by the
to save power plants money in the effort to con- total amount of allowances issued by the
trol acid rain, as well as encouraging states to use regulator, setting a cap on the global level of
emissions trading to reduce urban smog.The two emissions from mandated entities) and ex-
market mechanisms that have been developed ibility, through trading, in order for partici-
from this experience are known as Cap and Trade pants to meet compliance requirements at the
and Project Based or Offset mechanisms: lowest possible cost.
Project-based transactions, in which the buyer
Cap and Trade is a policy approach to con- purchases ERs from a project that can veri-
trolling large amounts of emissions from a ably demonstrate GHG emission reductions
group of sources at costs that are lower than compared with what would have happened
if sources were regulated individually. The otherwise (for instance investing in wind
approach rst sets an overall cap; that is the power or other renewable energy sources
maximum amount of emissions per com- instead of coal red power generation or
pliance period that will achieve the desired improving energy efciency at a large indus-
trial facility to reduce energy demand and
environmental effects. Authorizations to emit
hence, GHG emissions from power gen-
in the form of emission allowances are then
eration). The most prominent examples of
allocated to affected sources, and the total
238 The Future of Energy Use
1 For Joint Implementation projects the credits are known as Emission Reduction Units (ERUs).
2 For the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) the credits are known as Certied Emission Units
(CERs).
3 For schemes designed at enhancing sinks the credits are known as Removal Units (RMUs).
4 For Emissions Trading schemes the credits are known as Assigned Amount Units (AAUs).
2006 2007
Volume Value Volume Value
(MtCO2)e (MUS$) (MtCO2e) (MUS$)
Allowances
EU ETS 1,104 24,436 2,061 50,097
New South Wales 20 225 25 224
Chicago Climate 10 38 23 72
Sub total 1,134 24,699 2,109 50,394
Project-based
Primary CDMa 537 5,804 551 7,426
Secondary CDM 25 445 240 5,451
JI 16 141 41 499
Other complianceb 33 146 42 265
Sub total 611 6,536 874 13,641
Total 1,745 31,235 2,983 64,035
Notes
a
The primary CDM transactions refer to the rst sale of CERS from the project owner to the buyer. Secondary CDM refers to the on-sale of primary CERs.
b
Other compliance refers to the voluntary carbon market that allows institutions, companies and individual citizens in the North to offset their carbon emissions. A common
example of the voluntary market is that of individuals from the North who travel by plane or cars and believe that by donating a bit of money they are offsetting the emis-
sions they have generated through their lifestyle. For instance, numerous European airlines encourage passengers to donate a certain sum of money to be used in projects
that will apparently offset the emissions they generate by ying. This leads passengers to believe that by donating money, the carbon dioxide released during the ight will
be automatically absorbed somewhere else, and this will compensate for the emissions involved. One of the major problems associated with this is that it is not subject to any
form of regulation, making it virtually impossible to determine if the money donated has been used in an effective manner.
such activities are under the CDM (Clean Trade in the US Sulphur Dioxide programme
Development Mechanism) and the JI (Joint shows that the market approach does not drive
Implementation) mechanisms of the Kyoto innovation, suggesting that regulation may be a
Protocol, generating CERs and ERUs respec- more effective driver for technological change
tively. See Box 8.1 for further details on CDM, (Taylor et al, 2005).
JI and emission credit nomenclatures. These This is an important issue, particularly when
are known as the Flexibility Mechanisms. considering some of the largest carbon produc-
ers; the energy companies. Cap and Trade does
Carbon Trading should be seen as one of a number not pay any attention to industry type. Many
of methods for reducing GHG emissions, such as large electricity producers have invested heavily
improving efciency and developing renewable in fossil fuel capacity and are effectively locked-
capacity. Since the introduction of the exibility in to a fossil fuel economy. As opposed to shifting
mechanisms there has been considerable growth to renewable capacity, there is likely to be a ten-
in carbon trading and a number of markets have dency towards seeking efciency improvements
been established. According to the World Bank (given the mature state of the technology, these
the value of carbon trading in 2007 was US$64 will only be marginal) and to purchase emis-
billion, a little over double that of 2006.The larg- sion credits, the cost of which will be passed on
est single market was the EU ETS with trade val- to consumers. For those industries that are not
ued at US$50 billion, almost 80 per cent of the structurally locked into fossil fuels but produce
global market. The gures for 2006 and 2007 are greenhouse gases, Cap and Trade does provide
shown in Table 8.3. incentives. However, these industries are, in the
Estimates suggest that we are adding some 4.1 short term, more likely to seek quick wins so
billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equiva- they can prot from trading their emission rights
lents per annum to the global atmosphere (EIA, as opposed to investing in low carbon solutions
2008). From Table 8.3 we can see that carbon that will lower their emissions and provide sell-
credits amounting to almost 3 billion tonnes of able technologies. In short Cap and Trade is more
carbon dioxide equivalents were traded in 2007. likely to encourage a focus on the cheapest meth-
This would suggest that this approach offers con- ods of emission reductions as opposed to driving
siderable potential for greenhouse reductions. the radical shifts that have been argued as being
However, the reality is very different. necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.
Further problems have been created by the
way in which the carbon market has been con-
Effectiveness of carbon trading structed. This is most evident in the largest car-
bon market, the EU ETS.This began in 2005 and
in mitigation covered some 10,000 energy intensive plants in
the EU producing some 40 per cent of carbon
One of the underpinning principles of trading emissions. The allowances (an equivalent value of
is that market solutions will nd the optimum 120 billion and allocated free of charge except
cost effective solution to a problem. Effective in four member states where some were auc-
mitigation of greenhouses gases requires a reduc- tioned, but only in one member state was the
tion in the activities that produce GHGs. Large full 5 per cent auctioned, as allowed in the rst
scale reductions mean that large scale change is phase (Hepburn et al, 2006)) were established by
needed. In order to reduce GHGs, a shift in the National Allocations by each member state. Many
energy systems to more efcient and low carbon of these were set too high and when the market
technologies are needed. While there is a strong started operation in 2005 the price of carbon fell
social dimension to the climate problem, there (Grubb and Neuhoff, 2006). In fact the indus-
are also strong technological dimensions to the tries included in the EU ETS emitted 66 million
solutions. However, experience from Cap and tonnes less than the level set by the cap.
240 The Future of Energy Use
The generous allowance levels set by some This reects the gradual shift away from Com-
member states militates against the scarcity prin- mand and Control to market-based alternatives
ciple, essential for a robust market, and casts in EU environmental policy formulation (Flm,
doubt on the willingness of the EU members to 2007). A study by Point Carbon Advisory Serv-
meet international climate commitments. Grubb, ices commissioned by WWF (World Wide Fund
notes: for Nature) of ve EU member states (Germany,
the UK, Italy, Spain and Poland) into the scale of
If the current national allocation plans windfall prots that could accrue during Phase 2
are allowed to stand, it could seriously (20082012) of the EU ETS, estimates these as
undermine the credibility of the EU being between 23 and 71 billion, in total, based
ETS and the mechanism of carbon on an EUA price of 2132/t CO2 (Point Car-
trading as an effective way to tackle bon, 2008). The prospect of prots for nothing
carbon emissions. (Carbon Trust, may also help to explain the ease with which the
2006) second phase of the scheme was agreed.
In 2008, the European Commission proposed
The second phase of ETS was launched in January a number of changes to the scheme, including
2008. For this phase the EU broadened the scope centralized allocation (no more national alloca-
for auctioning. However, only ten EU members tion plans) by an EU authority, a turn to auc-
opted for this and of these four auctioned less tioning a greater share (60+ per cent) of permits
than 1per cent of their total allocations. In 2006 rather than allocating freely, and inclusion of the
Neuhoff et al had argued that such levels of sub- greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and peruorocar-
sidies proposed under the second phase could bons (MEMO 08/35, 2008). The main elements
mean that distorted allocation decisions could of the new system, which would enter into force
lead to a situation where it was more protable to in 2013 and run until 2020, are:
construct a coal red power station than it would
be if the ETS did not exist (Neuhoff et al, 2006). 1 Total EU industrial emissions in 2020 capped
Although tighter caps have been introduced in at 21 per cent below 2005 levels; a maximum
this phase, critics of the system argue that the of 1720 million allowances. To achieve the
Linking Directive, introduced in 2004 and imple- total number of emissions, allowances circu-
mented in 2005, which provides a link between lating at the end of 2012 will be cut by 1.74
the EU ETS and the exibility mechanisms in per cent annually.
the Kyoto Protocol, undermine the cap as it 2 The scheme will be enlarged to include new
allows credits earned from CDM and JI projects sectors, including aviation, petrochemicals,
to be offset against domestic targets. In addition ammonia and the aluminium sector, as well
critics claim that this undermines member states to include two new gases (nitrous oxide and
domestic climate policies and damages the EUs peruorocarbons), meaning that around 50
credibility in climate negotiations (Greenpeace, per cent of all EU emissions would be cov-
2003; Climate Action Network Europe et al, ered. Road transport and shipping remain
2003). However, the ease and speed with which excluded but shipping could be included at
this measure was adopted indicates the inuence a later stage. Agriculture and forestry are not
of the member states within the EU negotiation included because of the difculties related to
processes and their desire to have a system which measuring emissions from these sectors with
eases pressure on domestic activities. In effect the accuracy.
original view of the EU and its institutions that 3 In order to achieve an average 10 per cent
mixing of market mechanisms was to be avoided reduction of greenhouse gases from sectors
had shifted to a point where market mecha- not covered by the ETS, such as transport,
nisms were increasingly viewed as a more effec- buildings, agriculture and waste by 2020, the
tive means of delivering environmental goals. Commission has set national targets accord-
Energy Futures 241
ing to countries GDP. Richer countries are lax climate controls) if a global agreement is
asked to make bigger cuts (up to 20 per cent not reached, the EU will consider some com-
in the case of Denmark, Ireland and Luxem- pensatory measures to protect EU industries.
bourg) while poorer states (notably Portugal, 9 Flexibility and third countries: assuming a
as well as all of the countries that joined the global climate change deal is reached, mem-
EU after 2004 except Cyprus) will in fact be ber states will continue to be entitled to meet
entitled to increase their greenhouse emis- part of their target by nancing emission
sions in these sectors (by up to 19 and 20 reduction projects in countries outside the
per cent respectively for Romania and Bul- EU, although the use of such credits will be
garia) in order to take into account their high limited to 3 per cent of member states total
expectations for GDP growth. emissions in 2005 or, in other words, around
4 Smaller installations, emitting under 10,000 one quarter of the total reduction effort.
tonnes of CO2 per year, will be allowed to
opt out from the ETS, provided that alterna- At present these are proposals that will have to
tive reduction measures are put in place. be negotiated through the EU and it is likely
5 Industrial greenhouse gases prevented from that they will be very different from those set
entering the atmosphere through the use of out above. It is difcult to judge at present how
CCS technology, are to be credited as not effective ETS will be in mitigating GHGs in the
emitted under ETS. future.
6 Auctioning: today, 90 per cent of pollu-
tion allowances are handed out to industrial
installations for free, but a huge increase in CDM and JI
auctioning is planned for as early as 2013. It is
estimated that around 60 per cent of the total There is concern that credits earned through
number of allowances will be auctioned in these mechanisms will be used to offset domestic
2013. Full auctioning for the power sector is targets, effectively undermining the opportunity
expected to be the rule from 2013 onwards; to drive radical reform within sponsors. A JI proj-
this is expected to lead to a 1015 per cent ect must have the approval of the parties involved
rise in electricity prices. In other sectors, and provide a reduction in emissions by sources,
free allocations will gradually be completely or an enhancement of removals by sinks that is
phased-out on an annual basis between 2013 additional to any that would otherwise occur. JI
and 2020, although certain energy-intensive is overseen by a Supervisory Committee and
sectors could continue to get all their allow- like the CDM, ERUs must be certied by Inde-
ances for free in the long term if the Com- pendent Entities. JI Emission Reduction Units,
mission determines that they are at signicant however, can accrue only after 2008, although,
risk of carbon leakage, that is relocation to several countries have invited investments into
third countries with less stringent climate early JI emission reduction projects and grant
protection laws. The sectors affected by this post-2008 emission rights from their budgets for
measure are yet to be determined. the pre-2008 reductions.
7 The distribution method for free allowances Both JI and CDM have critics. JI enables
will be developed at a later stage by expert countries to purchase and sell emissions credits,
panels within the Commission. They are which could allow countries to buy their way
likely to be based on grandfathering or his- out of their Kyoto commitments. In the search
toric emissions and performance criteria. for cost effective projects, the cheapest mode
8 Competitiveness: to minimize the risk to for generating carbon credits, more expensive
European competitiveness through carbon renewable energy and energy efciency proj-
leakage (external industries exporting to the ects would be a low priority Leakage is another
EU and gaining a competitive advantage from problem area. Leakage refers to outside effects,
242 The Future of Energy Use
for instance, a project increasing the efciency will be attractive to investors, but might not pro-
of cars will reduce emissions, but indirectly, by mote sustainable development. A report by the
lowering the cost of driving, could encourage car World Commission on Dams in 2000 illustrated
owners to increase their vehicular use and even that large hydropower projects have seriously
purchase more cars. negative social and environmental impacts and
have regularly underperformed (World Commis-
sion on Dams, 2000).
The Clean Development Mechanism Additionally, CDM clean coal projects do not
(CDM) address future resource issues and hinder renew-
able energy projects therefore failing to promote
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) sustainable development. Many believe that
provides for Annex I Parties (members of OECD CDM is not an effective mechanism for the pro-
and EIT (economies in transition) essentially motion of renewable energy projects in develop-
the developed industrialized countries) to imple- ing countries as the structure of CDM means the
ment project activities that reduce emissions in search for least-cost carbon credits is the para-
non-Annex I countries (the developing world). mount consideration. More expensive projects
CDM project activities must have the approval like renewables are sidelined as the multiple ben-
of all Parties involved and must reduce emissions ets they provide are not rewarded (CDM Watch,
below those emissions that would have occurred 2005).
in the absence of the CDM project activity. The The CDM has also proved unsuccessful at
Marrakech Accords dened an elaborate CDM promoting projects that address energy ef-
project cycle that is overseen by the CDM ciency and transport, both of which are critical in
Executive Board (EB), whose 10 members are achieving sustainable development in the South
elected by the UNFCCC Conference of the and combating climate change globally. The
Parties (COP). The Board formerly registers World Bank estimated that the potential for ef-
projects and checks whether they conform to ciency projects is signicant, however, they note
the rules. Simplied rules for small-scale CDM in a recent paper that the limited number of proj-
projects were agreed at COP 8 (2002), and rules ects to date suggests they face barriers not fully
for sequestration CDM projects were agreed at reected in analyses of the achievable potential
COP 9 (2003). (Haites, 2004). Furthermore, a study conducted
CDM emission credits are added to the overall by the OECD found that:
emissions budget of Annex I countries and there-
fore, their quality must be guaranteed. Hence, a large and rapidly growing por-
emission credits only accrue after independent tion of the CDM project portfolio has
verication through Operational Entities (OEs), few direct environmental, economic or
which are mainly commercial certication com- social effects other than GHG mitiga-
panies. These emission credits are referred to as tion, and produces few outputs other
Certied Emission Reductions (CERs). than emissions credits (Ellis et al,
In CDM projects a share of the proceeds 2004, p32)
must be used to promote sustainable develop-
ment within the host country. Critics argue that The World Bank claims that CDM projects
many projects neither address the real problem can deliver sustainable development but it does
of reducing GHG in industrialized countries nor acknowledge there is only anecdotal evidence to
promote sustainable development in the host support this view. The Bank claims that a small,
nation. CDM projects a range of type and size of but distinct, market niche is developing, which
project. A number have focused on large hydro- rewards CDM projects that deliver strong sustain-
power and a clean coal project. Projects of this ability benets. In short there is little evidence
scale can generate a large amount of credits and that the effectiveness of carbon markets will
Energy Futures 243
V Diffuse Ownership
Complex Interconnected
Top-Down Infrastructure
reduce GHGs, although a preliminary analysis has raised questions about the need for a oor
undertaken by Ellerman and Buchner of the EU price for carbon. Effectively this would mean
ETS suggests that the market has reduced emis- shoring-up a system that has not delivered on
sions by 2.55 per cent below what they other- carbon reductions. There are voices now being
wise would have been (Tirpack, 2008). Whether raised about the need for carbon tax. For exam-
or not, in the long term, carbon trading can make ple, the Yale economist William Nordhaus, the
a signicant contribution to the deep cuts that respected climate scientist Jim Hansen and the
are needed, remains to be seen. What is alarming Chief Executive Ofcer of Exxon are just a few
is that it is clear from the World Bank report, State of the voices that are calling for the introduc-
and Trends of the Carbon Market, 2008, that the tion of a carbon tax. Resource-based taxes such
market is evolving into a fully-edged system, as as a carbon tax, are argued as being more effec-
shown in Figure 8.4, that has many of the features tive in driving innovation than market mecha-
associated with nancial markets, such as moneti- nisms. However, the application of resource
zation of carbon as a step toward securitization, based taxes, such as a carbon tax, will need to be
derivatives, bond transactions linked to the future implemented in conjunction with other instru-
price of carbon and so on (Ambrosi and Capoor, ments such as policy, legislation, regulation and
2008, p65). The credit crunch and bank failures efciency standards if they are to be effective.
of 2008 were to a large extent driven by inappro-
priate use of instruments of this type.Whether or
not there will be sufcient regulation to ensure
transparency in the carbon market and that it
Other carbon reduction
remains focused on delivering real cuts remains approaches
to be seen.
One nal point is that during 2009 the mar- As the previous section highlighted, there is
ket price of carbon fell to record low levels. This still some doubt as to whether a carbon market
244 The Future of Energy Use
can be designed to generate real carbon reduc- ages between 5 and 20 per cent of global GDP as
tions. Other alternatives to the UNFCCC and stated in the Stern Report (Stern, 2007).
its Kyoto Protocol are proposals for Contraction Technological leapfrogging is needed to
and Convergence and the Greenhouse Develop- achieve global emission reduction of 80 per
ment Rights Framework. cent and stabilizing the climate below a 2C
Contraction and Convergence is a proposal increase. Obviously such leapfrogging can only
for an emission allowance on a capitation basis occur if the poorest can access relevant technolo-
eventually driving to similar levels of carbon gies (OBrien et al, 2007). This can only occur
allowance (Meyer, 2001). It is based on national if richer industrialized nations simultaneously
allowances and therefore does not consider reduce their structural reliance on fossil fuels
broader global problems such as development but (Baer et al, 2007; Smith, 2007).
it wishes to push for similar carbon allowances for
everyone. In contrast, the Greenhouse Develop-
ment Rights Framework argues that poor people
should not be paying for the excesses of the rich The changing energy landscape
(Baer et al, 2007).
Averting climate change requires stabilizing Developing an energy system that meets cli-
atmospheric GHG concentrations at some 80 mate targets, sustainable development objectives
per cent below current levels while simultane- and energy security concerns is a massive chal-
ously, giving the poor a right to develop (Baer lenge. Throughout this book we have looked at
et al, 2007). This is based on the polluter pays a variety of technologies that can improve the
principle rather than common but differentiated efciency of both supply and demand sides of
responsibilities of the UNFCCC. The Green- the energy systems. In addition we have looked at
house Development Rights Framework proposes technologies that can be used to capture renew-
a median global income level of US$9000 below able resources. Decarbonizing the energy system
which people would not have to curb carbon will be difcult. For some the continuing use of
emissions. That is, they are surviving rather than large scale technologies such as nuclear and CCS
polluting and therefore exempt from obligation. offer a method of decarbonizing the supply side.
The Greenhouse Development Rights Frame- However, nuclear technology is inexible and we
work estimates that it would cost between 1 per would still have to nd a way of dealing with the
cent and 3 per cent of global GDP to avert cata- unresolved problem of nuclear waste (OBrien
strophic climate change in an equitable fashion, a and OKeefe, 2006). CCS is still only at the
gure that is similar to that of Stern. Rough cal- development stage and raises questions about the
culations suggest that the US would bear some 33 long-term security of carbon stored in geological
per cent, the EU around 25 per cent and China formations. Others advocate the use of renewable
and India less than 1 per cent each. The drive to technologies and there have been suggestions that
a global framework suggested by the Greenhouse Europe could meet its energy requirements from
Development Rights Framework is the most solar technologies deployed in the Sahara desert.
radical proposal since it places the development There will be considerable political barriers to
agenda into the global commons issue. overcome before such a scheme could be realized.
Global climate change must be addressed at The one area that most seem to agree on is that
the level of global and macro economics (Stern, improving demand-side efciency is vital.We have
2007; UNDP, 2007). This essentially means link- seen in earlier chapters the considerable scope for
ing it to the global poverty alleviation programme improving building and appliance efciencies.This
of the Millennium Development Goals. The cost is an important consideration and an important
of this global effort could be as much as 5.5 per- rst step in decarbonizing the energy system. The
cent of global GDP (IPCC, 2007) but this must next is what kind of approach is needed for the
be considered against the possible cost of dam- supply side. For renewable technologies a strategy
Energy Futures 245
that recognizes the difference between concen- the energy landscape of these changes is likely to
trated energy supplies, such as fossil fuels, and the be considerable. Conventional or current energy
distributed nature of renewable resources, such as systems tend to be pyramidal in shape as shown
solar and wind, means that a renewable approach in the drawing on the left hand side of Figure
will require a capture and store until needed 8.5. This can be characterized as a system with
strategy that recognizes the intermittent nature of a focused or concentrated ownership and many
the source. Storage is a key problem. Electricity passive consumers.The only connection between
cannot be effectively stored and this requires the the user and the energy system is the energy
development of a hydrogen economy alongside service provided and the utility bills. Bills typi-
a renewable energy economy to maximize the cally state the amount and price of the units of
opportunities for capture and storage. energy used and there is no information on how
There are many voices calling for urgent action that relates to energy services, for example, the
on reducing carbon emissions, although to date an amount of used space and water heating and for
agreed stabilization level and timetable have yet cooking and the amount of electricity used for
to be nalized. We do know that whatever target lighting and appliances.
and timetable is agreed it will take a long time to The introduction of more distributed tech-
change the energy system.There is a fear that if we nologies will change the look of the physical
opt for certain technologies, such as nuclear power, landscape, but the changes are likely to be sub-
we will be locked into a development trajectory for tle, for example, the deployment of solar ther-
many years. This could also drain funds away from mal collectors and photovoltaic panels on roofs,
the development and deployment of alternatives. the use of LED street lighting and the different
We also know that energy security concerns are noise emanating from electric or hydrogen vehi-
focusing attention on the development of indige- cles. Many of the changes will be invisible, such
nous resources and ensuring a diverse energy mix. as increased thermal efciency of buildings.What
We also know that there will have to be a step will be different is the more distributed structure
change in technologies, for example, the motor car of the energy system as shown on the right hand
where it is likely that hybrids and then either elec- side of Figure 8.5.
tric or fuel cell vehicles or both will dominate the The use of Net Metering and Feed-In Tariffs
eet.We have already seen the deployment of solar has, in some countries, encouraged the participa-
thermal water heaters and photovoltaic panels on tion of households in the energy system as both
household roofs. New standards for zero emission producer and consumer. Net metering provides
buildings will continue that drive. The impact on an incentive for consumer investment in renewa-
ble energy generation. Net metering enables cus-
tomers to use their own generation to offset their
consumption by allowing their electric meters to
turn backwards when they generate electricity in
excess of their demand. Without net metering, a
second meter is usually installed to measure the
electricity that ows back into the system. The
Feed-in Tariff is the mechanism where producers
of power from the household upwards are paid
for the power they produce. The new generation
of Smart Meters planned for installation in the
UK does not have this feature. It does allow com-
Source: OBrien, 2009 munication with the utility so that billing data
are more accurate and timely, and the possibility
Figure 8.5 Contrasting models of energy system of having a real-time display of energy use in the
structure household.
246 The Future of Energy Use
EU Commission (2003) Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Neuhoff, K. M., hman, R., Betz, J., Cludius, F., Fer-
Cells: A vision of our future, Directorate-General rario, K., Holmgren, G., Pal, M., Grubb, F., Mat-
for Research; Directorate-General for Energy and thes, K., Rogge, M., Sato, J., Schleich, J., Sijm, A.,
Transport. EU Commission, Brussels. Available Tuerk, C., Kettner, N. and Walker (2006) Impli-
at: http://ec.europa.eu/research/fch/pdf/hlg_ cations of announced phase II national alloca-
vision_report_en.pdf tion plans for the EU ETS, Climate Policy, vol. 6,
Flm, K.H. (2007) A Multi-level Analysis of the EU pp411422
Linking Directive Process: The Controversial OBrien, G. (2009) Resilience and vulnerability in
Connection between EU and Global Climate the European energy system, Energy and Environ-
Policy, Fridtjof Nansen Institute. Available at: ment, vol. 20, no. 3, pp399410
www.fni.no/doc&pdf/FNI-R0807.pdf OBrien, G. and OKeefe, P. (2006) The future of
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kingDir.pdf poverty and governance, International Journal of
Grubb, M. and Neuhoff, K. (2006) Allocation and Environmental Studies, vol. 64, no. 5, pp607618
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Hepburn, C., Grubb, M., Neuhoff, K., Matthes, F. and of the Worldwide Energy Web and the Redistribution of
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pp 137160. Available at: www.electricitypolicy. Indulgences for your Climate Sins, Amsterdam: Tran-
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248 The Future of Energy Use
change for domestic micro-generation in World Commission on Dams (2000) Dams and
the UK. Available at: www.sustainabletech- Development: A New Framework for Decision
nologies.ac.uk/PDF/project%20reports/ Making. The Report of the World Commission
109%20Unlocking%20Report.pdf on Dams, 2000. Available at: www.dams.org//
docs/report/wcdreport.pdf
Appendix 1
The following tables have been adapted from Table A1.2 Energy resources by country
data supplied by the World Energy Council to
Show: A New Way to Look at the World. Data Country Bagasse reserves % of world
are for 2005. Available at: http://show.mapping- (number of tons) total (%)
worlds.com/
Argentina 3,528,981 2.0986
Australia 8,790,719 5.2275
Brazil 45,859,978 27.2713
Table A1.1 Energy resources by type China 14,919,553 8.8721
Colombia 4,373,621 2.6008
Reserves Cuba 2,119,000 1.2601
Oil 1,215,186,000,000 barrels Egypt, Arab Rep. 1,956,000 1.1632
Oil shale 2,826,103,000,000 barrels El Salvador 1,031,195 0.6132
Natural gas 176,462,000,000,000 cubic Guatemala 3,285,095 1.9535
metres India 24,801,796 14.7487
Coal 847,888,000,000 tons Indonesia 3,969,050 2.3603
Bitumen 245,914,000,000 barrels Kenya 866,410 0.5152
Bagasse reserves 168,162,130 tons Mauritius 854,006 0.5078
Mexico 9,159,426 5.4468
Capacity Pakistan 4,607,482 2.7399
Wind power 59,335 megawatts Panama 256,370 0.1525
Solar electric 3,902,290 kilowatts Peru 1,132,200 0.6733
Nuclear power 370,576 megawatts Philippines 3,559,350 2.1166
Geothermal heat use 282,016 terajoules
South Africa 4,087,086 2.4304
Peat production 13,580,000 tons
Sudan 1,186,283 0.7054
Hydropower potential 16,475 terawatt-hours
Swaziland 1,063,960 0.6327
Thailand 7,479,912 4.4480
US 4,514,411 2.6846
The following tables show countries that pos- Venezuela, RB 1,124,700 0.6688
sess energy resources that are greater than 0.5 per Vietnam 1,425,605 0.8478
cent of the global total. Zambia 403,798 0.2401
World total 168,162,130
250 The Future of Energy Use
The following table has been adapted from data Botswana 1,173,000 0.0156
supplied by the World Energy Council to Show: Brazil 90,499,000 1.2071
A New Way to Look at the World. Data are for British Virgin Islands 23,000 0.0003
2005. Available at http://show.mappingworlds. Brunei Darussalam 2,403,000 0.0321
com/ Bulgaria 11,608,000 0.1548
Burkina Faso 299,000 0.0040
Burundi 60,000 0.0008
Country CO2 emissions CO2 Cambodia 146,000 0.0019
(metric tons emissions Cameroon 1,047,000 0.0140
of carbon) (% world Canada 174,401,000 2.3262
total) Cape Verde 75,000 0.0010
Afghanistan 189,000 0.0025 Cayman Islands 85,000 0.0011
Albania 1,002,000 0.0134 Central African Republic 69,000 0.0009
Algeria 52,915,000 0.7058 Chad 34,000 0.0005
Angola 2,154,000 0.0287 Chile 17,025,000 0.2271
Antigua and Barbuda 113,000 0.0015 China 1,366,554,000 18.2274
Argentina 38,673,000 0.5158 Colombia 14,629,000 0.1951
Armenia 995,000 0.0133 Comoros 24,000 0.0003
Aruba 588,000 0.0078 Congo, Dem. Rep. 574,000 0.0077
Australia 89,125,000 1.1888 Congo, Rep. 966,000 0.0129
Austria 19,051,000 0.2541 Cook Islands 8,000 0.0001
Azerbaijan 8,555,000 0.1141 Costa Rica 1,747,000 0.0233
Bahamas, The 548,000 0.0073 Croatia 6,410,000 0.0855
Bahrain 4,623,000 0.0617 Cuba 7,042,000 0.0939
Bangladesh 10,137,000 0.1352 Cyprus 1,841,000 0.0246
Barbados 346,000 0.0046 Czech Republic 31,910,000 0.4256
Belarus 17,699,000 0.2361 Cte dIvoire 1,408,000 0.0188
Belgium 27,471,000 0.3664 Denmark 14,444,000 0.1927
Belize 216,000 0.0029 Djibouti 100,000 0.0013
Benin 651,000 0.0087 Dominica 29,000 0.0004
Bermuda 150,000 0.0020 Dominican Republic 5,357,000 0.0715
Bhutan 113,000 0.0015 Ecuador 7,983,000 0.1065
Bolivia 1,902,000 0.0254 Egypt, Arab Rep. 43,160,000 0.5757
Bosnia and Herzegovina 4,254,000 0.0567 El Salvador 1,682,000 0.0224
Equatorial Guinea 1,480,000 0.0197
254 The Future of Energy Use
UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol are responsible ance controls the Earths surface temperature.
for regulating a basket of six greenhouse gases. The term forcing is used to indicate that the
Three of these occur naturally (note they are also Earths radiative balance is being pushed away
produced by human action, for example, com- from its normal state. Radiative forcing is usually
bustion); namely carbon dioxide, methane and quantied as the rate of energy change per unit
nitrous oxide and three are manufactured, namely area of the globe as measured at the top of the
hydrouorocarbons (HFCs), peruorocarbons atmosphere, and is expressed in units of Watts
(PFCs) and sulphur hexauoride (SF6). HFC and per square metre (Forster et al, 2007). From Table
PFC represent a family of different chemicals that A3.1 we can see that the single largest contribu-
have been manufactured for different purposes. tor to the greenhouse effect is carbon dioxide.
There are other gases that exacerbate the green- To compare the relative climate effects of
house effect such as Ozone Depleting Substances greenhouse gases, it is necessary to assess their
(ODS) that are regulated by the Montreal Pro- contribution to changes in the net downward
tocol. infra-red radiation ux at the tropopause (the
It is known that different gases have different top of the lower atmosphere) over a period of
impacts on the greenhouse effect.The greenhouse
effect is primarily a function of the concentration
of water vapour, carbon dioxide and other trace Table A3.1 Global atmospheric concentration,
gases in the atmosphere that absorb the terres- concentration rates and residence times of selected
trial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth. greenhouse gases
Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of
these greenhouse gases can alter the balance of Atmospheric variable CO2 CH4 N2O SF6
energy transfers between the atmosphere, space, Pre-industrial 278 0.700 0.270 0
land and the oceans. A gauge of these changes is concentration
called radiative forcing, which is a simple measure Atmospheric 365 1.745 0.314 4.2
of changes in the energy available to the Earth- concentration (1998)
atmosphere system. Rate of concentration 1.5 0.007 0.0008 0.24
Radiative forcing is a measure of how the change
energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system Atmospheric lifetime 50200 12 114 3200
is inuenced when factors that affect climate are
Notes:
altered. The word radiative arises because these 1 SF6 specied in parts per trillion (ppt), all others in parts per million (ppm)
factors change the balance between incoming 2 No single lifetime can be specied for CO2 because of the different rates of
solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation uptake by different removal processes.
within the Earths atmosphere. This radiative bal- Source: Adapted from IPCC, 2001
258 The Future of Energy Use
Statospheric water
vapour CH4 0.07 [0.02 to 0.12] Global Low
Total net
1.6 [0.6 to 2.4]
anthropogenic
2 1 0 1 2
Radiative forcing (Wm2)
radiative forcing and lifetimes were calculated for 2.14 in Forster et al, 2007, available at: http://
a variety of halocarbons, which were not pre- www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/
sented in the SAR. ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf
The Fourth Assessment Report presents a Finally, the report concludes that the atmos-
more comprehensive assessment of the radiative pheric concentration of carbon dioxide was
potential of a larger number of gases. In addi- 380ppm with a growth rate of 1.9ppm for the
tion IPCC combined data from other sources period 19952005. The average growth rate
that lower radiative forcing such as albedo, which between 1960 and 2005 was 1.4ppm. The pri-
tends to reect solar away from the planet, and mary source of the increased atmospheric
Figure A3.1 shows the combined effects. This concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre-
shows that there is a discernible increase in radia- industrial period results from fossil fuel use, with
tive forcing due, in the main, to the emission of land use change providing another signicant but
anthropogenic greenhouse gases. smaller contribution.Annual fossil carbon dioxide
IPCC reports a number of changes to the emissions increased from an average of 6.4 (6.0
GWP and residence time in the atmosphere, 6.80GtC (equivalent to 23.5 [22.025.0]GtCO2
for example, methane is given values of 12 and as 1GTC = 3.67 GtCO2) per year in the 1990s
21 respectively and nitrous oxide 114 and 310 to 7.2 [6.97.5]GtC (26.4 [25.327.5]GtCO2)
respectively. A full listing can be found in Table per year in 20002005 (2004 and 2005 data are
260 The Future of Energy Use
Measurements and
Conversion Tables
Table A4.1 Conversion factors
Petroleum (1 million tonnes) Coal (1 million tonnes) Natural gas (1 million therms)
7.5 million barrels 600,000 tonnes of oil 100 million cubic feet
425 million therms 250 million therms 2.75 million cubic meters
1.7 million tonnes of coal 7500GWh of energy 4000 tonnes of coal
12,500GWh of energy 2400 tonnes of oil
29.3GWh of energy
Appendix 4 263
Investing in an energy project, like any other DCF analysis uses future free cash ow projec-
project, requires a method for assessing if the tions and discounts them (most often using the
project is value for money. From a commercial Weighted Average Cost of Capital or WACC) to
perspective, if a project pays back less than the arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate
initial cost then it does not make any sense to the potential for investment.This is known as the
go ahead with the project, no matter how laud- Net Present Value (NPV) which is the difference
able the aims of the project may be. There are between the present value of cash inows and
two methods of estimating the costs and benets the present value of cash outows. If the value
of an action; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than
CostBenet Analysis (CBA). Typically DCF is the current cost of the investment, the opportu-
used in investment nance, property develop- nity may be a good one.
ment and corporate nancial management and is The WACC is a calculation of an organiza-
based on the concept of the time value of money. tions cost of capital in which each category of
Future cash ows are estimated and discounted capital is proportionately weighted. All capital
to give their present values. CBA is typically used sources common stock, preferred stock, bonds
by governments to evaluate the desirability of and any other long-term debt are included in a
a given intervention in markets. The aim is to WACC calculation. WACC is calculated by mul-
gauge the efciency of the intervention relative tiplying the cost of each capital component by its
to the status quo. The costs and benets of the proportional weight and then summing:
impacts of an intervention are evaluated in terms
of the publics willingness to pay for them (ben- WACC = (E/V) Re + (D/V) Rd
ets) or willingness to pay to avoid them (costs). (1 Tc)
Inputs are typically measured in terms of oppor-
tunity costs the value in their best alternative where:
use. The guiding principle is to list all of the par-
ties affected by an intervention, and place a mon- Re =
cost of equity
etary value of the effect it has on their welfare as Rd =
cost of debt
it would be valued by them. E =
market value of the organizations
equity
D = market value of the organizations debt
V = E+D
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) E/V = percentage of nancing that is equity
D/V = percentage of nancing that is debt
This is a valuation method that is used to estimate Tc = corporate tax rate
the attractiveness of an investment opportunity.
266 The Future of Energy Use
from its amenity value.This is usually determined The income of the plant can be determined
through Willingness to Pay or Willingness to from the rated output over its lifetime and
Accept techniques. These are discussed in Chap- the income streams that it will generate in
ter 2. the future. The cost of electricity for the con-
sumer, for example, is well known. However,
estimating what consumers will pay in the
future is problematic. Factors inuencing the
Investing in energy projects price of electricity are ination and variations
in the fuel costs and the availability of other
On the face of it, investing in energy projects is alternative sources that may be developed
no different to any other kind of investment. It during the lifetime of the plant. This means
follows that it should be relatively straightforward that the further into the future that esti-
to decide on the merits of a particular energy mates are made, the greater the discount rate
investment.There are a number of points to con- will have to be, as risk increases. That means
sider: income streams near to the end of the lifetime
will need to be discounted at a higher rate
The capital costs of land, buildings and equip-
than those generated just after the plant goes
ment.These should be relatively easy to deter- online.
mine for a particular type of plant such as a The residual value of the plant at the end of
coal, gas or nuclear power station. its service life is the value of the plant or of
The costs of capital reect the fact that typi- its individual components and is determined
cally an organization would have to borrow from the possibilities of its alternative use.
all or some of the capital needed to build the On the assumption that equipment or parts
plant. This will have to be repaid and those of a plant can be sold, the expected liquida-
that invested in the project will expect to tion yield from the sale is usually taken as the
generate a return. Generally, it is expected residual value. Often one of the most valuable
that this would have a higher rate of return residual assets could be the land as this may be
than could be earned simply by depositing sold for another purpose.
the cash in a bank, otherwise there would be Depreciation can be dened as the decrease
no economic incentive for investors. in value of an asset due to use and/or time. A
The operating costs of the plant over its life- very simple operational denition of depre-
time. Technologies will have a rated lifetime ciation can be given as:
and an associated budget requirement for
maintenance and upkeep. However, operating Depreciation = (cost of asset residual
costs include labour and fuel costs. Labour value)/service life
costs may be reasonably easy to estimate as
the number and type of personnel should be Although estimating some of these values is
known.A factor for wage ination can be esti- problematic there are other factors that need to
mated. Fuel costs are more problematic. Oil be considered. For example, during the lifetime
and gas has seen sharp uctuations recently of a plant new regulations could be implemented
and there is great uncertainty surrounding that would require the plant to be upgraded.This
future energy prices. For renewable systems would typically entail new investment. An exam-
that use wind, wave, tide, water or sunlight, ple of a possible uncertainty is whether or not
there are no fuel costs but the intermittency a decision may be taken in the EU to require
for some renewable resources will need to be new coal burning plants to be Carbon Capture
factored in. Renewable resources such as bio- ready. This implies that the design would have to
mass will have on-going fuel costs. be such that carbon capture equipment could be
tted if that becomes a requirement. At present
268 The Future of Energy Use
this is being discussed at EU level and there is The main arguments against subsidies are:
a political aspiration for this approach. Some
contingency will need to be factored into the Some energy subsidies are counter to the goal
investment decision in anticipation of such likely of sustainable development, as they may lead
changes. to higher consumption and waste, exacerbat-
The area where there is great uncertainty is ing the harmful effects of energy use on the
the external costs of energy production. We do environment, creating a heavy burden on gov-
know that the use of fossil fuels generates green- ernment nances and weakening the potential
house gases and pollution. The costs associated for economies to grow, undermining private
with such emissions are usually not carried by and public investment in the energy sector.
the energy producer. Typically, they are paid for Subsidies can impede the expansion of dis-
from public funds, for example, impacts on health tribution networks and the development of
will be paid through the health system. There is more environmentally benign energy tech-
a more detailed discussion on external costs in nologies, and do not always help the people
Chapter 2. that need them most.
A further problematic area when costing Energy subsidies often go to capital intensive
energy systems are subsidies. Energy subsidies are projects at the expense of smaller or distrib-
measures that, for consumers, keep prices below uted alternatives (Mackenzie and Pershing,
market levels or, for producers, above market lev- 2004).
els, or reduce costs for consumers and producers.
Energy subsidies may be direct cash transfers to Globally, subsidies for oil, coal, gas and nuclear
producers, consumers or related bodies, as well as power have totalled in the tens of billions of dol-
indirect support mechanisms, tax exemptions and lars annually and, although this may help some to
rebates, price controls, trade restrictions, planning access energy systems, it can drain resources away
consent and limits on market access. They may from the development of alternative and renew-
also include energy conservation subsidies. In able approaches. Koplow et al (2007) discuss ten
historical terms, subsidies for renewable energy ways in which subsidies distort energy markets.
have been lower in comparison to other forms of In summary these are:
energy (EEA, 2004).There are arguments for and
against energy subsidies. 1 Absence of charges on GHG emissions lack of
The main arguments for subsidies are: realistic price for carbon in carbon trading
effectively distorts this market approach.
Security of supply subsidies are used to ensure 2 Oil security the price paid to police supply
adequate domestic supply by supporting routes is a form of subsidy.
indigenous fuel production in order to reduce 3 Cap on liability for accidents in nuclear power in
import dependency, or supporting overseas the event of a major nuclear accident, the
activities of national energy companies. majority of the costs will be met from public
Environmental improvement subsidies are used funds.
to reduce pollution and full international 4 Tax credits and exemptions for biofuels subsidies
obligations such as the Kyoto Protocol. can distort food markets and lead to signi-
Economic benets subsidies in the form of cant environmental damage as land is turned
reduced prices are used to stimulate particular to their production.
economic sectors or segments of the popu- 5 Cross-subsidies in electricity markets distor-
lation, e.g. alleviating poverty and increasing tions in price when electricity supplies are
access to energy in developing countries. switched between suppliers to meet con-
Employment and social benets subsidies are sumer needs.
used to maintain employment, especially in 6 Domestic subsidies to energy consumption tend
periods of economic transition. to militate against new technologies and ef-
ciency and conservation strategies.
Appendix 4 269
carbon capture and storage 126127, 129135 Cosine Law of Radiation (Lamberts Law) 181
enhanced oil recovery (EOR) 129 costs of electricity generation 3233
carbon dioxide emissions by country 253255 costs of energy 3246
carbon sequestration 127129
carbon storage 132134 damage
geological 133 environmental 6465
ocean storage 133134 externalities 3336
policy context 134135 high voltage towers 1112
carbon trading 231, 237 photovoltaic 198190
effectiveness in mitigation 239242 ports 14
EU ETS 236 radiation 154
mechanisms 23 reneries 13
carnot cycle 125 wind turbine 201203
catagenesis 116
cap and trade 27 darrieus turbine 203
externalities 34 decommissioning 164165
future energy 231 deforestation
de-carbonizing 236 Africa 6367
emissions trading 237 IPCC 20
effectiveness 239 dependency
charcoal 9, 42, 63 imports 1214
chenobyl 139, 145 diagenesis 115
radiation risks 152
safety 140 economics of nuclear power 159161
clathrates 132 efciency of end use
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 17, 23, efciency 7174
26, 61, 62, 123, 237238, 240242 energy trends 74
coal EIA/DOE energy model 119
carbon capture and storage 95, 129, 231233, energy
245 costs of electricity generation 3233
clean coal 11, 231 energy poverty 13, 58, 59, 62, 81,
reserves 7 external costs 3336
unminable 132133 futures 710
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) 124 global resources 37
126 gross domestic product 23
commercial energy supply strategies 4142 subsidies and feed-in tariffs 37
challenge of global biomass 4245 underlying assumptions in the EIA/DOE
nuclear route green alternative? 42 model 119
primary energy mix: hydrocarbons 42 vulnerability of energy systems 1015
conservation of energy 73 energy and built environment 7485
convention on climate change 15, 123, 134 thermal efciency of buildings 7577
conventional fuels energy and development planning 44, 5762
coal 121122 approaches to energy in addressing energy
combined heat and power 125126 poverty 5960
natural gas 120121 energy poverty 62
oil 115119 obstacles 6162
policy context 122123 re-thinking energy systems 5758
supply-side strategies 123125 technology transfer 6061
Index 273