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Brandon Kovach
Author Note
This paper was prepared for Intro to the Middle East 187D, taught by
After months in the making this year OPEC shocked the world and finally
agreed on lowering the amount of oil they would produce. This is the biggest
production cuts they have made in over eight years and the reason for it is because
people will pay more money when there is less oil. How did all of this start and what
does it mean for OPEC and even America? To get some background, OPEC stands for
oil producing countries from almost all over the world that have come together to
better control the output of their oil and provide benefits for its members. Its
entrance into the oil market has given Middle Eastern countries the ability to
negotiate with foreign countries and has ultimately affected how countries all over
the world buy and sell oil. OPEC has humble beginnings which began when Middle
Eastern countries wanted to form a cartel that would control the price of oil to make
them rich. This led them to employ different strategies to control the output of oil
into the global economy. One of the strategies they use to accomplish this is cutting
production costs to raise the amount of money that people pay for each barrel.
Since OPEC owns almost a third of the oil market, a price increase of large sizes has
major effects on almost every country. People are worried that these production
cuts will create high oil prices that will last for a very long time, but history has
shown us that this is not the case because other oil producing countries will offset
OPEC was founded in September 1960 in the city of Baghdad Iraq. The first
founding members were Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela who
represented the Middle East and South America. After its founding many other
countries from Africa and Southeast Asia joined the organization. The reason the
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 3
founding members made the alliance was so that they could change the price of oil
to acquire more income from their oil fields (Brief History, par. 1). Since they wanted
to rig the price of oil they are considered to be a cartel which is a group of
producers of a product or material that come together to fix prices in their favor.
Unfortunately, the oil market was not very receiving and made it very hard for OPEC
to change prices because oil distributing companies didnt take them seriously and
more importantly because each country only wanted the prices to change in their
favor. Some oil companies would announce their support for OPEC, but then would
make special deals with the different countries that were members of OPEC. These
rivalries among the countries in OPEC made every one of the time to think that
About 10 years after the founding of OPEC, their persistence finally started to
pay off because oil was finally becoming the major resource that everyone wants
just like today. It was this new found hunger that the world had for oil that pushed
OPEC into its Golden Age. The oil producers were now the ones controlling the
prices, no longer could oil companies demand that they would only buy oil at a
curtain price. At the time OPEC held 80 percent of the worlds oil, so many of these
companies either had try and look for a better deal from a small producer or if they
wanted more oil they would have to do business with OPEC. OPECs golden age took
place from about 1974 to 1978, and started at Tehran Iran, when the countries in
OPEC met and had a long discussion about how a huge increase in the price of oil
would impact the global economy. According to Wagner (2009), they finally agreed
to raise their price to 11.65 dollars per barrel when at the time the price was only
5.12 dollars per barrel (Wagner, pg. 50). Finally, the countries in OPEC experienced
four really good years of income from oil. The biggest issue was that the people who
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 4
became very rich didnt use the money to stabilize the economies in their countries.
Instead it was an era where many elaborate palaces, weapons, and cars were
bought. It finally ended when OPEC could buy anything else because they had
spent around 69 billion dollars and were in debt by 2 billion dollars. Since oil was
such a lucrative industry more people had started digging up their own oil. This
meant that OPECs share of the oil market had shrunk to only 40%. Although, the
biggest issue that this organization had never overcame was the fact that its
members couldnt work together and always tried to find ways to improve only their
own profits.
Before OPEC had the ability to influence the price of oil they had to figure out
its decisions about why and how much they try to change oil prices, it is important
to look at how they work together. Sadly, Middle East countries have always had a
hard time agreeing with each other because each country had its own plan to
become the richest nation. This squabbling among themselves continued to the
point where on August 2, 1990 Iraq sent troops to Kuwait to take it over. Saddam
Hussein was hoping that by taking over Kuwaits oil fields they could pay off their
debt after the eight year Iran and Iraq war. Wagner (2009) mentions in her book
that the scary truth was if Hussein had been successful, Iraq would have had control
over twenty percent of OPECS production and twenty-five percent of the worlds
reserves (Wagner, pg. 58). Seeing what would happen if Saddam took Kuwait, the
U.S. decided to protect its best interests by defending the country from invasion.
Most importantly, the nations of OPEC felt threatened by Iraqs move because not
only was a member attacking another member which would hurt oil prices, but it
threatened each countrys right to be a separate nation. If one country in OPEC took
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 5
control over other countries what would stop them from taking more countries in
OPEC until it was only one nation? Thats why OPEC supported Kuwait by increased
production to compensate for the loss by Iraq and Kuwait. Still this shows how much
influence OPECs oil production has on the other countries because despite their
effort to sustain the production levels the price of oil still started to climb at an
unnerving rate.
To see what OPECs price cuts does to other countries we can see how
America has been affected since we rely on so much of the worlds oil. Jennifer
Weeks (2012) mentions that during the 1970s, oil consisted of 34 percent of the
energy used in America, which is much bigger than any other form of energy. The
reason why America relies so heavily on oil is because the culture and economy
makes it immensely more convenient for people to use cars as their primary form of
transpiration. In fact, 94 percent of vehicles at the time used oil to get around
(Overview, para. 5). Over the last four decades politicians in America have been
voicing their opinion on how to rely less on imported oil. One strategy many political
figures use is to push for more relaxed oil exploration laws so that we can drill more
oil domestically. The biggest issue is that a lot of the oil fields in America are
becoming depleted making oil harder to get to, which would lead to the increase of
oil prices. So until a solution was found, oil continued to be imported especially from
Middle East countries. Although, this decision has caused problems for America
because they are so heavily invested in the political outcomes in the Middle East.
They quickly learned not to choose sides in a war against the ideals of the countries
aligned in OPEC.
Of course, OPEC doesnt live in a vacuum and only sell oil to nations in the
Middle East. They play a big hand in affecting the economies of even the biggest
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 6
nations like The United States of America. In the 1970s America was starting to rely
heavily on oil as cars and other gas vehicles were becoming more popular. Also at
the time, there was another conflict between the Arab nations and Israel where
America decided to back Israel by giving them weapons and ammunition because
the Soviet Union were backing the Arabian nations. Naturally, a large amount of the
countries involved with OPEC were either one of these Arabian nations fighting
Israel or they supported them. So this lead to the first discussions about using oil as
an economic weapon. They finally came to the agreement that because America
was providing weapons they would have to suffer the consequences by cutting the
amount of production they would sell America. Soon after that they also agreed to
raise the price of oil by 70 percent to 5.11 dollars a barrel (Wagner, pg. 43). This
caused America to fall into the biggest oil crisis in its history. In fact, it was so bad
that people had to either set an appointment or were only allowed to go to the gas
station on curtain days of the week. After a year of rebuilding its supplies, American
officials had oil reserves build to protect against any production cuts in the future.
This specific scenario demonstrates that when the members of OPEC are brought
together by a common goal, they can have a giant impact on the nations it is
dealing with.
cutting the amount of oil they are producing by 1.2 million barrels of oil each day.
This news was very surprising to many people because production cuts at this
magnitude hasnt been done since 2008 (Chappell, para. 1-5). One of the possible
reasons for the large gap between when they made this decision was because each
of the countries only wanted to raise prices for their benefit, so they could never
agree on an outcome. OPEC also managed to negotiated with another of the worlds
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 7
oil producing powers which is Russia. They agreed to cut their rate of production by
about 300,000 barrels of oil a day. These production cuts are significant because
they will affect everyone. When a lot of oil producing countries, like OPEC, cut the
amount of oil they are producing, people will pay more for the oil they have because
there is less of it in circulation. OPEC says its goal with this deal is to bring stability
to the oil economy which is always changing due to the unpredictable amounts of
oil that countries produce. Although based on OPECs history and the strategies
they use to control the market, they are most likely also trying to control the price of
At the beginning of OPECs existence, their goal was to raise the price of oil to
acquire more money from selling petroleum. As they found out soon after it was
hard for the countries to come to an agreement on the price they should change it
too. Instead, they found their best strategy was to use sanctioning, which is when
they refused to sell oil to countries they are in conflict with. OPEC found that it can
use its oil production as a weapon to give them leverage in many situations like war.
and the financial state of that country. This means that sanctioning can also backfire
hurting OPEC in the process if they dont do it at the right time. Van De Graf (2013)
explains in his article that sanctioning can be a double edge sword because if they
stopped selling to a specific country they would lose a little bit of money because
they arent selling as much. It also can raise the price of oil because not as much oil
is being put into circulation (Van De Graf, pg. 160). Oil producers are not the only
ones who can refuse to sell oil to other nations. It also works the other way around if
a petroleum buyer refuses to buy oil from a source. A great example of this is
represented in Van De Grafs article on how Americas sanction on Iran affected the
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 8
economy. Since America didnt by oil from Iran they had a net loss of 40 million
dollars that year. The biggest discovery though wasnt that they sold less oil, but
because Iranian banks werent getting as much money from the oil producing
companies. After a few attempts at sanctioning OPEC found a new strategy would
allow them to have more control and influence over their income.
OPEC produces almost a third of the worlds oil which means that they have a
lot of influence over the market. Come to find out along with trying to control prices,
OPEC also plays a big role in stabilizing the oil market. They do this by imposing
quotas on each of the countries within OPEC to accomplish this goal. Quotas are just
like goals that they set for each country so that they can predict the amount of oil
that each country should produce. They do this for multiple reasons, the first of
which is because this helps them control production of oil so that if one of the
countries started slacking they could easily raise the quota to help pick up the
slack. Secondly, by having better control over its output it allows them to predict
the amount of barrels that theyll sell so that they know how much countries will
pay for their oil. Unfortunately for OPEC, since all of the countries are always trying
to take advantage of each other, a lot of them have a hard time meeting their
quotas. In 2015, researchers Linab, Omojub, and Okonkwoc, said that Saudi Arabia
uses a strategy called the tit-for-tat strategy. Since Saudi Arabia is the biggest oil
producer in OPEC they are able to meet their quota and produce extra reserves.
These reserves are then used to pick up the slack of any of the other countries that
arent meeting their quotas (Overview of OPEC market stabilization strategy, para.
3). This use of quotas has allowed OPEC to stabilize its output of oil even if a
country doesnt meet their quota because it is in the middle of a revolution, which
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 9
has happened more than once. OPEC uses a lot of different strategies to get better
Especially with the recent events people think that OPEC has full control over
the oil market. So this begs the question what impact has OPEC had on the price of
oil? To start, OPEC revolutionized the way countries buy and sell oil from producers.
Before, countries had to pay the money that oil suppliers decided was best and oil
producers, like the countries in the Middle East, would only be paid for what the
suppliers thought the oil was worth. Although once OPEC entered the scene all of a
sudden oil was a competitive product. Now oil suppling organization have to look for
sources from all around the world to find the best seller. An article from Robert
Barsky and Lutz Kilian (2004) about how oil prices affect countries health, make a
point about how cartels like OPEC play a role in the global economy by stabilizing
and sometimes stimulating the market (Conclusion, para. 1). This means that
because OPEC holds such a large amount of the worlds oil reserves, it has the
power and responsibility to influence the wellbeing of countries that buy their
organization OPEC aims to work with its founding countries to unify their output and
stabilize the oil market. So throughout OPECs existence they have revolutionized
and played a hand in stabilizing the global oil market. Due to the recent production
cuts, people are worried that OPEC has full control over the market and will raise
Now since OPEC holds a lot of the worlds oil reserves, they should be able to
have a lot of control over the oil market, right? Well not exactly, because research
has shown that in spite of OPECs strategies to control oil prices, they rarely are able
to make major changes to the oil market. For example, OPECs sanctioning of oil
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 10
from the U.S. had a huge impact on Americas economy, although other than that
the organization hasnt managed to directly influence the oil supply of any other
countries. OPEC is considered a cartel which means they should be playing a big
role in determining the price of their product. According to Jeff D. Colgan (2014),
who wrote an article about the limits of OPEC in the global oil market, in order for a
cartel to be successful at controlling the price of the market it needs to set hard
production goals (Introduction, para. 2). In OPECs case, they havent even been
able to complete the easy goals that they set for themselves because the countries
dont always meet their production quotas. If OPEC isnt controlling prices like how
that people say they are, then why do they still exist? The answer is because the
organization gives its members political benefits. It has been found that countries
with OPEC status have more ambassadorial representation from other countries,
meaning other countries are paying more attention to them. So OPEC may not in
practice be able to directly control the oil market because of the instability of the
Middle East and because they are unable to meet their set quotas. So what does
this mean for OPEC today and how they interact with the nations who buy their oil?
As stated before, OPEC may not have as much control over that oil market
today than most people think. Although, OPEC still holds almost a third of the
worlds oil reserves. At this point in time if OPEC is not able to meet the production
goals than it will have a hard time influencing the price of oil. The sad truth is;
OPEC is slowly losing in the race to provide the best deal on oil which has made
them less appealing to other countries. One of the biggest reasons for this is
because of the civil war in Syria and the American troops in Iran have made the
consistency of their supplies very unreliable. This makes it harder for OPEC to set
aggressive quotas because its members can be unreliable due to war and political
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 11
the petroleum market. He also adds that one of the reasons OPEC could be losing
control over the market is because other countries like Russia are drilling in new
fields which means that OPEC has more competition (Conclusion, para. 2). What this
means for OPECs future is that they need to start working together to meet their
quotas so that they become more competitive in the market. Luckily for them, oil
fields all over the world are starting to run dry meaning companies need to pay
more money to get to the oil that is miles deeper. This gives OPEC an edge where
most of the countries suppling the oil still have plenty of oil left in their fields.
This year OPEC nations came together and put aside their differences to
agree on one of the biggest production cuts in years. These production cuts could
have repercussions for many nations with especially, America. Although, this time
weve learned from our mistakes and have reserves to absorbed the sudden
changes in production. Still if history hasnt shown us anything its that OPECs
control over the petroleum market hasnt been as much as people fear. That means
that the same people shouldnt worry about the price of oil in the long run because
even though the price might go up a little, they will eventually stabilize over time.
Even if OPEC dont have that much control over the market, they still hold a lot of
the worlds reserves, and petroleum fields in other countries are starting to dry up.
Never the less, in order to stay competitive OPEC needs to engage with other
nations and cultures to ensure that they can keep up with the change that happens
in the world.
Reflection
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 12
This topic was very fun to research and learn more about how OPEC allows
Middle Eastern countries to do business with organizations and countries from all
over the world. I liked that I was able to share about why OPEC is still relevant and is
making an impact on even my life. Having the bibliography and progress report
assignments were also a great help because it kept me on track so that I knew
exactly how much time I had to research and write it. Of course, it wasnt all smooth
sailing from beginning and end. What I mostly dislike about how my paper turned
out was that it turned more into a general economy paper than I wanted. On the
plus side I think I did a good job tying in numbers with information that is relevant to
the Middle East and how diverse the market is. I wouldnt be surprised if a lot of
student have a hard time with sources just like I did. Although, I found great
resources online that had a lot of papers written about OPEC and found some books.
All in all, I learned a lot about OPEC and how the countries of the Middle East are
Bibliography
The question that this source is trying to answer is if OPEC has lost its control
over global oil prices. It explains that over the years OPEC countries dig up
much more oil than they are going to sell, so they store it. That way if the
prices went up they had reserves to introduce into the economy, thus
lowering the price of oil. Although, it has been found that, like in 2004, other
countries like Russia started getting into the oil producing game. With more
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 13
competitors to OPEC they found that they were losing dominance over the oil
reforming fossil fuel subsidies, and the nexus between trade. He has a lot of
all over the world. In his article he includes many references that he acquired
to make his conclusions about the state of the OPECs grasp on the global
economy.
This source expands on my topic because it talks about how differences in
countries objectives has made OPECs control sloppy. Some of the countries
in the alliance have large deposits of oil like Saudi Arabia who is one of
OPECs major producers, but it also has a lot of countries that dont produce
nearly as much. This causes the countries that dont produce a lot to have
large recessions when oil prices become too high. This leaves big producers
like Saudi Arabia picking up their slack which in some cases cant be dont
Barsky, R, Kilian L. (2004). Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s. Journal of
This source discusses the impact of oil shocks in the Middle East on the global
macro economy. Backed by research from many academic sources this article
talks about how it looks like there is a trend between when oil prices rise and
the economy goes into a rescission. It all starts in the Middle East where
usually wars and political divide causes prices to go up. That is one of the
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 14
reasons why OPEC was founded, to help reduce oil shocks in the Middle East
shocks in the Middle East and a global recession, but it is not the oil shocks
alone that cause this. In the end it a bunch of different economic factors that
cause global economic resections, although oil shocks are one of those
factors.
The author of this article is Robert Barsky, who is a senior economist and
regions all over the world. To back up his findings, Barsky lists references
from other creditable papers from professionals who analyses the cause and
shocks in the Middle East affect the economies of other countries. Oil shocks
can be caused by many factors but usually occur due to the Middle Easts
political instability. Wars play a big role because as civil wars and terrorist
groups fight for land they acquire different oil fields. This change in ownership
can cause prices for oil in the Middle East to rise. It has also been observed
that the rise in oil prices matches the global economy. For example, in
America when prices rise other industries have a harder time producing more
products which creates a chain reaction that can lead to a major recession.
Chapell, B. (2016, November 30). OPEC Agrees to First Cut in Oil Production Since
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/30/503863756/opec-agrees-
to-first-cut-in-oil-production-since-2008
This source is about how OPEC has very recently agreed on cutting the
amount of oil they are producing. Their plans are to cut production by 1.2
million barrels every day starting January 1st of 2017. One of the surprising
things about this report is that Russia has also agreed to cut their production
hiccups, but since Indonesia imports a lot of oil form OPEC it has decided to
sit out the production cuts. This source states that these production cuts will
of experience in finding the right facts for new events and telling them. Bill
Chappell is heavily invested in NPR and their online platforms. He has put in
years of editing, producing, and writing articles on the events that happen all
over the world. Although, this source is not a primary source it is still reliable
because it has quotes from people who were actually at the event where
recent even that will prove to change the way we see oil prices today. OPEC
has lowered production because it will create more demand for OPEC from oil
causing people to pay more money for their oil. As well as create more
demand and profits for OPEC, this source talks about how OPEC is also trying
Colgan, J. D. (2014). The Emperor Has No Clothes: The Limits of OPEC in the Global
This source talks about whether OPEC actually has a hold on the oil market.
The author Colgan states that people believe that OPEC is a cartel. A cartel is
control the prices. The thing is to control prices the group members need to
have a large share of their respected economy. For OPECs case, they dont
make enough of the worlds oil that by holding back they can drastically
change the price of oil. That begs the question that if OPEC cant really
control prices than what is the alliance good for? The author answers this by
saying that OPEC makes political benefits by being able to interact with
security, and how it relates to energy politics. He also has a large list of
well as the global economy. This article explains that contrary to what others
think OPEC doesnt have as much control as people think. The author
mentions that it had a role in the oil crisis of 1973, but that after that its role
production in the Middle East to get the most income for the countries
Linab, B., Omojub, O., Okonkwoc, J. (2015). Will Disruptions in OPEC Oil Supply Have
Permanent Impact on the Global Oil Market. Renewable and Sustainable Energy
influence on the global oil economy. It explains that OPEC uses a quota
strategy on its members to grow their income. This means that OPEC agrees
on an amount of oil that each country has to produce to meet their quota.
Deciding this allows OPEC to control the prices in and outside the Middle East.
For example, they can require countries to produce a lot of oil. This will lower
the price of Middle East oil which means other countries will stop buying oil
in China. Linab is a part of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy,
Omojub works with the China Center for Energy Economics Research, and
Okonkwoc at the Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE). These
authors work in the field of energy in the worlds economy and have written
many articles on it. The sources are filled with research gathered from other
the production of its many different counties to control a large quantity of the
oil economy. For example, Saudi Arabia is one of the major producers of oil in
meet their quotas. That means it plays a major role in stabilizing the price for
In this source OPEC gives a summary of theyre history. It talks about how in
1960 OPEC was founded to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum
producers. OPEC then begins to compete with the other oil producing
companies at that time. When prices rose in the 1970s OPEC had its first
countries apart of OPEC fell into deep economic troubles. Up till now OPEC
has been working to agree on and help maintain policies to keep income
themselves. Like according to the web page OPECs objective is to work with
the member countries to make fair and stable prices for oil producers,
return to those investing in the industry. It also talks about how in the wake of
rising oil prices they were able to come together and help stabilize the
This book describes the oil market and how the Middle East dominates one
third of that market. It also talks about OPECs founding and how they
negotiated with other oil companies on oil prices. Then it touches on how
OPEC decided to raise prices themselves leading America into an oil crisis.
From their it discusses OPECs golden age and how their control over the oil
has led to war between nations in the Middle East as well as other countries
outside. Lastly it talks about what OPEC is doing today and why that has
written extensively on the Middle East and international policies. She has a
B.A. in political science from Duke University and M.A. in government from
the College of William and Mary. The book was edited by Peggy Kahn, a
that, the book includes a bibliography and notes of the information that she
has found.
This source is good for my topic because it explains the financial and ethical
decisions made by the OPEC and how it has affected the economy. For
example, in 1973 Israel was trying to protect from Syria who was trying to
take over the country. Of course, America had sided with Israel where as a
majority of the countries in OPEC were with Syria. So OPEC decide to limit the
amount of oil it sold to the U.S. and raise the price by 70% to $5.11 per
barrel. This put America in an oil shortage causing gas stations to have to
only let curtain people fill up at certain day of the week. This shows how war,
economy, and governments has allowed us to fill our cars with gas when we
want and has changed the lives of those living countries that produce oil.
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 20
Weeks, J. (2012, June 22). U.S. oil dependence. CQ Researcher, 22, 549-572.
This source discusses U.S. oil supplies and how we are dependent of
foreign oil from places like the Middle East. The article explains that ever
since the 1970s the presidents have been trying to find a way to rely less
use less, others say we need to drill more in our country. The problem is
America produces very little of the worlds oil but consumes more than 20
percent of it.
Jennifer Week the author of this article has an A.B. degree from Williams
College and master's degrees from the University of North Carolina and
has written many articles on the subject. In this source she has also
energy problems are related to the middle east. Jennifer Weeks discusses
how political powers in America want to lower the price of oil by drilling
energy security in this country it doesnt matter if we get most of our oil
from our own resources or from the middle east because oil prices are
determined on a global scale, the key is using less oil in general. Dealing
with countries in the middle east can lead to problems like the oil crisis of
1970 when OPEC decided to cut off supply to America because it was
aiding Israel.
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 21
Van de Graaf, T. (2013). The "Oil Weapon" Reversed? Sanctions Against Iran and
This article is focused on one of the main strategies used by OPEC and many
source. This article uses Americas sanction of oil from Iran to study the
effects that it has on the economy. In Iran the sanction of oil has slowed down
the amount of revenue that the country is receiving because its economy
sanctions are that it can changed the way oil is bought from other countries
has been a part of multiple groups dedicated to the study of global energy
studies done on the topic of Irans economy and Americas oil sanction.
This source expands on how OPEC and other countries use oil like a weapon
to hurt or help each other. The article talks about how sanctioning can be a
double edged sword sometimes. With the example of the sanction on Iran, it
hasnt affected their ability to sell oil that much because they still have some
major buyers. According to the research in this article the part of the
sanction that is hurting Iran is the sanction of banks and insurance. Its
CAN OPEC INFLUENCE HOW MUCH WE PAY FOR GAS? 22
interesting to see how sanctioning has affected countries in OPEC and their
buyers.