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1 INTRODUCCION
Poblaci
on.
Muestra, muestreo.
Objetivos de la inferencia estadstica.
Metodos parametricos y no parametricos.
Estadstico.
Distribuci
on muestral de un estadstico.
X1 + X2 + . . . + Xn x1 + x2 + . . . + xn
X= ; x=
n n
E(Xi ) = Xi =
X1 + X2 + . . . + Xn 1 1
E(X) = E = (E(X1 ) + E(X2 ) + . . . + E(Xn )) = (n)
n n n
X = E(X) =
2
Var(Xi ) = X i
= 2
X1 + X2 + . . . + Xn 1 1 1
Var(X) = Var = Var(X1 ) + 2 Var(X2 ) + . . . + 2 Var(Xn ) =
n n2 n n
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 2
2
1 2 2
= E (X )2 = Var(X) =
=n X
n2 n
2
2 N n
X = Var(X) =
n N 1
X
Z=
/ n
2 pq p(1 p)
P = E(P ) = = p ; P2 = Var(P ) = = =
n n n
2
N n pq N n
P2 = =
n N 1 n N 1
X1 X2 = X1 X2 = 1 2
12 2
2
X 2
= X 2
+ X = + 2
1 X2 1 2 n1 n2
La variable tipificada:
(X1 X2 ) (1 2 )
Z= q 2
1 22
n1 + n2
P1 P2 = P1 P2 = p1 p2
p1 q1 p2 q2
P2 = P2 + P2 = +
1 P2 1 2 n1 n2
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 3
E(S 2 ) = S 2 = 2
Demostraci
on:
n n n n
X X 2 X X
(Xi X)2 = (Xi ) (X ) = (Xi )2 2(X ) (Xi ) + n(X )2
i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1
n
X n
X
= (Xi )2 2(X )n(X ) + n(X )2 = (Xi )2 n(X )2
i=1 i=1
Pn n
!
X)2
i=1 (Xi 1 X
2 2 2
E(S ) = E = E (Xi ) nE (X )
n1 n1 i=1
n
!
2
2 1 X
2 2 1 1
E(S ) = X nX = n 2 n = (n 1) 2 = 2
n1 i=1
i
n1 n n1
Definici
on alternativa:
Pn
02 i=1 (Xi X)2
S =
n
2 n1 2
E(S 0 ) =
n
Muestreo sin reemplazamiento:
2 N
E(S ) = S 2 = 2
N 1
Pn
S2 i=1 (Xi X)2
(n 1) 2 =
2
n
X n
X
(Xi )2 = (Xi X)2 + n(X )2
i=1 i=1
n 2 2
(n 1)S 2
X Xi X
= +
i=1
2 / n
(2n = 2n1 + 21 )
Entonces, la siguiente variable aleatoria obedece a una distribucion 2 con (n 1) grados de libertad:
S2
2n1 = (n 1)
2
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 4
2.6 EL ESTADISTICO t
X
t=
S/ n
(X )/ (X )/(/ n) Z
t= = p =q
(S/)/ n S 2 / 2 2
n1 /(n 1)
S12 /12
F =
S22 /22
S12 S22
2n1 1 = (n1 1) ; 2n2 1 = (n2 1)
12 22
2n1 1 /(n1 1)
F =
2n2 1 /(n2 1)
3 ESTIMACION DE PARAMETROS
Estimaci
on de par
ametros poblacionales.
Estimador
Propiedades de un estimador A de un parametro poblacional :
1. Insesgado:
E(A) = A =
2. A1 m
as eficiente que A2 :
2 2
A 1
< A 2
3. Consistente
2
lim A = ; lim A =0
n n
Estimaci
on puntual y por intervalos de confianza.
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 5
E(X) = ; E(S 2 ) = 2
Distribuci
on binomial de par
ametro p. Estimador: proporcion de exitos P . Insesgado pues:
E(P ) = p
Distribuci
on de Poisson con par
ametro . Estimador:
Pn
i=1 Xi
=
n
3.1.2 El m
etodo de m
axima verosimilitud
Funci
on de verosimilitud:
El estimador de m
axima verosimilitud es el valor de que hace maxima L:
d ln L 1 dL
= =0
d L d
Distribuci
on binomial:
1p ; x=0
f (x, p) = px (1 p)1x =
p ; x=1
n
Y
L= f (xi , p) = pf (1 p)nf
i=1
ln L = f ln p + (n f ) ln (1 p)
d ln L f nf
= =0
dp p 1p
f
p(n f ) = f f p p(n f + f ) = f p=
n
Distribuci
on normal N (, ):
n
Y 1 (xi )2
L= e 22
i=1
2
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 6
n
(xi )2
X n n 1 X
ln L = ln 2 ln = ln 2 ln 2 2 (xi )2
i=1
2 2 2 2 2
ln L 1 X
= 22 (xi ) = 0
2
Pn
X X
i=1 xi
(xi ) = 0 xi n = 0 =
n
ln L n 1 1 X
= + (xi )2 = 0
2 2 2 2 4
Pn
2
X
2 2 i=1 (xi )2
n = (xi ) =
n
L1 = f1 (X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ) ; L2 = f2 (X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn )
A) Distribuci
on normal:
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 7
P X z/2 < < X + z/2 =1
n n
X
P z/2 < < z/2 =1
/ n
I = X z/2
n
S
I = X z/2
n
S S
P X t/2,n1 < < X + t/2,n1 =1
n n
S
I = X t/2,n1
n
s
P (1 P )
I = P z/2
n
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 8
s
I = z/2
n
A) Poblaciones normales:
s
12 22
I = (X1 X2 ) z/2 +
n1 n2
s
S12 S22
I = (X1 X2 ) z/2 +
n1 n2
(X1 X2 ) (1 2 ) (X1 X2 ) (1 2 )
Z= q 2 2
= r
1 2
n1 + n2 2 n11 + n12
,s
(X1 X2 ) (1 2 ) (n1 1)S12 + (n2 1)S22 (X1 X2 ) (1 2 )
T = =
2 (n1 + n2 2)
r q
Sp n11 + n12
2 n11 + n12
(X1 X2 ) (1 2 )
P t/2,n1 +n2 2 < q < t/2,n1 +n2 2 = 1
Sp n11 + n12
r r
1 1 1 1
P (X1 X2 ) t/2 Sp + < 1 2 < (X1 X2 ) + t/2 Sp + =1
n1 n2 n1 n2
r
1 1
I = (X1 X2 ) t/2,n1 +n2 2 Sp +
n1 n2
(X1 X2 ) (1 2 )
T = q 2
S1 S22
n1 + n2
2
S12 S22
n1 + n2
f= (S12 /n1 )2 (S22 /n2 )2
2
n1 +1 + n2 +1
s s
S12 S22 S12 S22
P (X1 X2 ) t/2,f + < 1 2 < (X1 X2 ) + t/2,f + =1
n1 n2 n1 n2
s
S12 S22
I = (X1 X2 ) t/2,f +
n1 n2
p1 (1 p1 ) p2 (1 p2 )
p21 p2 = +
n1 n2
s
P1 (1 P1 ) P2 (1 P2 )
I = (P1 P2 ) z/2 +
n1 n2
ESTADISTICA, CURSO 20082009 10
(n 1)S 2
P 21/2,n1 < < 2
/2,n1 =1
2
!
21/2,n1 1 2/2,n1
P < 2 < =1
(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
!
(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
P 2 < 2 < 2 =1
/2,n1 1/2,n1
" #
(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
I= ,
2/2,n1 21/2,n1
Desviaci
on tpica:
"s s #
(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
I= ,
2/2,n1 21/2,n1
S12 /12
P F1/2;n1 1,n2 1 < < F/2;n1 1,n2 1 =1
S22 /22
S12 2 S2
1 1
P 2 < 12 < 12 =1
S2 F/2;n1 1,n2 1 2 S2 F1/2;n1 1,n2 1
S12 2 S2
1
P 2 < 12 < 12 F/2;n2 1,n1 1 =1
S2 F/2;n1 1,n2 1 2 S2
S12 S2
1
I= 2 , 12 F/2;n2 1,n1 1
S2 F/2;n1 1,n2 1 S2
3.2.5 Determinaci
on del tama
no de la muestra
l = 2z/2
n
P (X < < X + ) = 1
2 2
= z/2 n = z/2
n 2