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Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018

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Safety Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci

Trends in motor vehicle crash mortality in Europe, 19802007


Chiara Orsi a,, Paola Bertuccio b, Anna Morandi a, Fabio Levi c, Cristina Bosetti b, Carlo La Vecchia b,d
a
Centro Interdipartimentale di Studi e Ricerche sulla Sicurezza Stradale, Dipartimento di Scienze Sanitarie Applicate e Psicocomportamentali, Universit degli Studi di Pavia,
Via Bassi 21, 27100 Pavia, Italy
b
Dipartimento di Epidemiologia, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via La Masa 19, 20156 Milan, Italy
c
Unit depidmiologie du cancer et Registres Vaudois et Neuchtelois des Tumeurs, Institut de mdecine sociale et prventive (IUMSP),
Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois et Universit de Lausanne, CHUV-Falaises 1, 1011 Lausanne, Switzerland
d
Dipartimento di Medicina del Lavoro, Universit degli Studi di Milano, Via Commenda 10, 20122 Milan, Italy

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Recent trends (19802007) in mortality from road trafc crashes in European countries, and, for compar-
Received 16 August 2011 ative purposes, in the USA and Japan were reviewed. Data came from the World Health Organisation
Received in revised form 29 November 2011 database. Age-standardised rates, at all ages and at 1524, 2564, P65 years, were computed. Joinpoint
Accepted 6 December 2011
regression analyses to evaluate signicant changes in trends were performed. In the European Union as a
Available online 29 December 2011
whole rates declined from 20.2 in 1987 to 13.5/100,000 in 2007 in men, and from 6.3 to 3.7/100,000 in
women; European Union rates remained lower than USA, but higher than Japanese ones. In 2007, the
Keywords:
highest male rates were in Lithuania (36.7/100,000), the Russian Federation (35.2), Ukraine (29.8), and
Road trafc crashes
Mortality
Latvia (28.5), and the lowest ones in the Netherlands (6.2) and Sweden (6.9); the highest female rates
International comparisons were in the Russian Federation (11.3), Lithuania (9.7), Belarus, Latvia, and Ukraine (around 8), and the
Trends lowest ones in Switzerland (1.7), the UK, and Nordic countries (around 2). Mortality from motor vehicle
Joinpoint regression crashes declined in northern and western European countries and though to a lesser extent in south-
ern European countries, too. Mortality trends were also favourable in the Czech Republic and Poland since
the mid 1990s, whereas they were still upwards in Romania and the Russian Federation. No trend was
observed in Hungary and Ukraine. Trends were consistent in various age groups considered. Thus, addi-
tional urgent and integrated intervention is required to prevent avoidable deaths from motor vehicle
crashes, particularly in selected central and eastern European countries.
2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction In several high-income countries, the fall in death rates from


motor vehicle crashes has been one of the most favourable changes
Road trafc deaths, disabilities, and injuries are a major global in mortality from any cause. These declines in mortality reect a
public health issue. Worldwide, the number of people killed in road large number of advancements in road safety policy, distribution
trafc crashes each year is estimated around 1.3 million (World and crashworthiness of the eet, road network characteristics, as
Health Organisation, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). In addition, well as human behaviour and attitudes, including alcohol drinking
between 20 and 50 million people globally are estimated to be (Page, 2001).
injured or disabled each year. This paper presents recent trends in mortality from motor vehi-
In the European Union (EU) with about 500 million inhabit- cle crashes in Europe, and, for comparative purposes, in the USA
ants and 230 million motor vehicles a total of 1200,000 injuries and Japan.
and 34,500 deaths occur every year from road crashes (European
Commission, 2011a). In the USA, there were 33,808 deaths in
2. Materials and methods
2008, in a population of 309 million inhabitants with 256 million
registered motorised vehicles (National Highway Trafc Safety
We abstracted ofcial death certication data from road trafc
Administration, 2010).
crashes over the period 19802007 for 33 European countries, plus
the USA and Japan, from the World Health Organisation (WHO)
database as available on electronic support (World Health
Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 0382987552; fax: +39 0382987570. Organisation, 2011). The WHO database included all deaths from
E-mail addresses: chiara.orsi@unipv.it (C. Orsi), paola.bertuccio@marionegri.it
road crashes, independently from the time elapsed since the crash.
(P. Bertuccio), amorandi@unipv.it (A. Morandi), Fabio.Levi@chuv.ch (F. Levi), cristina. Estimates of the resident population, based on ofcial censuses,
bosetti@marionegri.it (C. Bosetti), carlo.lavecchia@marionegri.it (C. La Vecchia). were derived from the same WHO database. Besides the United

0925-7535/$ - see front matter 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2011.12.008
1010 C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018

Men 0-85 yrs Women 0-85 yrs


30 15

USA
25
Japan
Death rate/100 000

Death rate/100 000


EU
20 10

15

10 USA 5
Japan
5 EU

0 0
1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-07 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-07
Calendar period Calendar period

Men 15-24 yrs Women 15-24 yrs


60 25
USA
50 Japan
20
EU
Death rate/100 000

Death rate/100 000


40
15
30
10
20 USA
Japan
5
10 EU

0 0
1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-07 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-07
Calendar period Calendar period

Fig. 1. Trends in age-standardised (world population) mortality rates from motor vehicle crashes per 100,000 men and women in the European Union (EU), the USA and
Japan, at all ages and at age 1524 years, 19802007.

Kingdom as a whole, England and Wales, and Scotland were also where a signicant change in the linear slope of the trend (in a
considered separately. For Portugal data were available up to log-scale) is detected (Kim et al., 2000). The analysis starts with
2003, for Belgium up to 2004, for Slovakia, Spain and the USA up the minimum number of joinpoints (e.g. 0 joinpoints, which is a
to 2005, for Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, the Russian Federa- straight line on a log scale), and tests whether one or more join-
tion and Ukraine up to 2006. The EU was dened as the 27 member points (up to 3) are signicant and must be added to the model.
states as in 2007, excluding Cyprus, whose data were not available. We then estimated the annual percent change (APC) for each of
In a few countries, data were missing for one or more calendar the identied trends by tting a regression line to the natural loga-
years; no extrapolation was made for missing years. rithm of the rates using calendar year as the regressor variable [i.e.,
During the calendar period considered, three different Revisions given y = a + bx, where y = ln(rate) and x = calendar year, the APC is
of the International Classication of Diseases (ICDs) were used estimated as 100  (eb 1)].
(8th ICD code = E810823, 9th ICD code = E810819, 10th ICD
code = V01V99). Since no major changes were introduced in the
procedure of coding of road trafc crashes, classication of deaths 3. Results
was recoded for all calendar periods and countries according to
the 10th Revision of the ICD (World Health Organisation, 1992). In the EU (as in Japan) rates decreased, particularly since 1990
From the matrices of certied deaths and resident populations, in both sexes, whereas in the USA rates declined up to the mid
we computed age-standardised rates 1 at all ages and in three sep- 1990s, to level off thereafter in men, but not in women (Fig. 1).
arate age groups (1524, 2564, P65 years), on the basis of the Similar trends were observed at all ages and in younger population
world standard population (Doll and Smith, 1982). (age 1524 years).
To identify signicant changes in trends for 18 selected major Table 1 gives the overall age-standardised mortality rates from
countries, we performed joinpoint regression analysis using the motor vehicle crashes per 100,000 men and women in 33 European
Joinpoint software from the Surveillance Research Program of countries, plus the EU, the USA and Japan around 1987 (1985
the US National Cancer Institute (National Cancer Institute, 2011). 1999), 1997 (19951999) and in 2007, and the corresponding per-
The analysis identies the best tting points (the joinpoints) cent changes in rates. In the EU overall, between 1987 and 2007
rates declined from 20.2 to 13.5/100,000 men, and from 6.3 to
3.7/100,000 women; corresponding declines were from 25.5 to
1
An age-standardised rate is a weighted average of the age-specic (crude) rates, 21.0/100,000 men, and from 10.4 to 8.5/100,000 women in the
where the weights are the proportions of persons in the corresponding age groups of a
standard population. This allows to reduce the potential confounding effect of age and
USA, and from 14.9 to 6.5/100,000 men, and from 4.4 to 2.3/
to compare age-standardised rates computed using the same standard population 100,000 women in Japan. In 1987, among European men the high-
(Doll and Smith, 1982). est rates were in Portugal (40.2/100,000), Latvia (37.1), Lithuania
C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018 1011

Table 1
Overall age-adjusted (world population) mortality rates from motor vehicle accidents per 100,000 men and women in selected European countries, the European Union as a
whole, Japan and the USA, around 1987 (19851989), 1997 (19951999) and in 2007, and corresponding percent changes in rates.

Men Women
1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change 1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change
deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997 deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997
Austria 26.40 16.88 11.73 530 36.05 30.51 7.49 5.34 3.23 172 28.70 39.51
Belarus (1995, 19971999) 22.00 25.39 26.45 1427 15.40 4.17 5.42 7.15 8.05 493 31.77 12.64
Belgium (2004) 25.81 20.92 16.81 923 18.95 19.63 8.71 7.02 4.36 275 19.37 37.94
Bulgaria 16.46 14.08 18.67 803 14.46 32.60 5.57 4.45 5.41 267 20.08 21.49
Croatia 28.29 21.72 22.16 539 23.22 2.00 7.61 5.85 5.28 139 23.19 9.73
Czech Republic (19861989) 13.35 20.18 15.96 949 51.17 20.88 4.27 6.29 4.67 299 47.55 25.74
Denmark (2006) 17.33 14.49 7.97 231 16.40 45.02 6.75 4.58 3.05 93 32.18 33.49
Estonia 27.36 34.65 22.41 165 26.66 35.34 8.08 7.92 5.61 52 2.06 29.18
Finland 15.81 12.89 11.60 352 18.48 10.04 6.35 4.32 3.91 115 31.90 9.65
France 24.41 18.39 11.01 3519 24.63 40.15 8.45 6.36 2.95 1124 24.68 53.65
Germany (2006) 16.45 14.65 8.81 3946 10.92 39.83 5.73 4.99 2.77 1413 12.91 44.53
Greece 27.05 28.65 21.86 1395 5.90 23.71 8.20 8.53 5.60 381 4.04 34.28
Hungary 23.88 22.28 20.09 1163 6.67 9.82 7.38 6.27 5.47 366 15.02 12.82
Iceland 13.90 13.35 9.79 17 3.97 26.65 6.33 4.16 0.54 1 34.34 87.01
Ireland 18.41 15.82 9.54 231 14.08 39.70 5.84 5.38 3.04 74 7.86 43.44
Italy 21.05 18.32 14.33 4669 12.97 21.77 5.86 4.98 3.16 1162 15.10 36.51
Latvia 37.06 42.70 28.51 361 15.22 33.23 9.57 11.57 8.23 125 20.87 28.88
Lithuania 34.37 33.72 36.69 665 1.88 8.79 9.81 9.59 9.67 212 2.16 0.76
Luxembourg (2006) 32.84 20.81 11.71 30 36.63 43.71 8.38 6.75 3.70 10 19.46 45.20
Malta 7.06 7.94 5.18 13 12.47 34.77 1.68 1.25 1.20 3 25.90 3.81
Netherlands 12.09 10.19 6.21 575 15.70 39.08 4.79 3.63 2.29 224 24.19 36.90
Norway 13.06 11.83 7.81 203 9.44 33.96 4.75 3.89 2.34 68 18.04 39.99
Poland (19951996, 1999) 23.03 26.52 21.09 4644 15.16 20.48 5.39 6.85 5.83 1420 27.16 14.90
Portugal (2003) 40.23 28.29 25.72 1561 29.68 9.07 9.48 7.47 6.81 436 21.20 8.92
Romania (1989) 13.09 17.58 21.61 2724 34.27 22.93 4.34 5.99 6.67 920 38.10 11.44
Russian Federation (2006) 25.23 29.98 35.24 27,850 18.82 17.54 6.64 9.49 11.31 10,391 42.91 19.25
Slovakia (2005) 25.69 19.32 594 24.81 6.49 5.33 170 17.94
Slovenia 32.22 25.58 22.56 256 20.60 11.82 8.61 7.03 5.49 63 18.34 21.88
Spain (2005) 24.79 20.10 15.51 3876 18.95 22.84 7.35 5.84 3.82 1020 20.51 34.60
Sweden 12.45 7.67 6.86 367 38.35 10.54 4.93 2.96 2.27 132 39.92 23.54
Switzerland 20.19 12.30 7.55 325 39.09 38.60 5.96 4.00 1.69 90 32.91 57.82
Ukraine (2006) 24.08 18.61 29.82 7527 22.71 60.25 6.01 5.11 8.08 2358 15.06 58.11
United Kingdom (UK) 12.86 8.22 7.87 2559 36.08 4.25 4.49 2.76 2.20 832 38.50 20.49
UK, England and Wales 12.44 7.94 7.57 2195 36.22 4.55 4.36 2.63 2.09 712 39.56 20.52
UK, Scotland 15.32 10.14 8.71 233 33.81 14.10 5.31 3.64 2.48 79 31.38 31.86
European Union 20.23 17.15 13.51 37,101 15.21 21.24 6.32 5.32 3.72 11,360 15.79 30.22
USA (2005) 25.54 20.55 20.98 33,546 19.54 2.13 10.39 9.51 8.53 14,171 8.51 10.25
Japan 14.89 13.17 6.50 5559 11.56 50.66 4.40 4.33 2.25 2709 1.62 47.99
a
In the last available calendar year

(34.4), Luxemburg (32.8), and Slovenia (32.2), and the lowest ones Romania, Russia, and a few other CEE countries, particularly in
were in the Netherlands (12.1), Sweden (12.5), and the UK (12.9). the young (age 1524 years).
In European women the highest rates were in Lithuania (9.8), Table 5 shows the joinpoint analysis for motor vehicle crash
Latvia (9.6), and Portugal (9.5), and the lowest ones in the Czech mortality in men from selected European countries over the period
Republic, Romania, UK, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway (be- 19802007, at all ages and at age 1524 years over recent calendar
tween 4 and 5). Declines in rates, particularly over the last decade, years. Mortality declined in men from northern and western
were observed in most European countries, the major exception European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands,
being Romania, Russia, and a few other countries of Central and Sweden, Switzerland and the UK) and though to a lesser extent
Eastern Europe (CEE). In 2007, in men the highest rates were in in those from southern European ones (Italy, Greece, Portugal),
Lithuania (36.7/100,000), the Russian Federation (35.2), Ukraine with somewhat more favourable declines in younger men. Mortal-
(29.8), and Latvia (28.5), and the lowest ones in the Netherlands ity trends were also favourable in the Czech Republic and Poland
(6.2), and Sweden (6.9). In women, the highest rates were in the since the mid 1990s, whereas they were upwards in Romania
Russian Federation (11.3), Lithuania (9.7), Belarus, Latvia, and and the Russian Federation, and no consistent pattern was ob-
Ukraine (around 8), and the lowest ones in Switzerland (1.7), the served in Hungary and Ukraine. In several countries, however,
UK, and Nordic countries (around 2). trends were not linear. Thus, in France, Italy and Sweden they were
Table 2 gives the rates for the population aged 1524 years. upwards in mid-late 1990s, particularly among young men, in
Corresponding gures at age 2564 years and age 65 years and Spain they increased in the 1980s, in Germany rates were stable
over are given in Table 3 and Table 4, respectively. Geographical between the mid 1980s and the mid 1990s, and declined only
patterns and time trends in mortality from motor vehicle crashes thereafter, and in most CEE countries as well as in Russia there
in various age groups were similar to those for the whole popula- were substantial rises around the late 1980s/early 1990s.
tions. Thus, in all age groups rates in 2007 were higher in the Baltic Corresponding analysis for women is given in Table 6. Although
countries, the Russian Federation and other CEE countries for both rates were lower than those in men, trends were consistent with
sexes, while the lowest ones were in northern European countries. male ones in most countries, with favourable patterns in western,
Declines in rates were observed consistently in all age groups, but, northern, but also southern Europe, and upward pattern in
as for overall mortality, unfavourable patterns were observed in Romania and Russia.
1012 C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018

Table 2
Age-adjusted (world population) mortality rates from motor vehicle accidents per 100,000 men and women aged 1524 years in selected European countries, the European Union
as a whole, Japan and the USA, around 1987 (19851989), 1997 (19951999) and in 2007, and corresponding percent changes in rates.

Men Women
1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change 1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change
deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997 deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997
Austria 60.96 41.47 25.78 134 31.97 37.83 13.45 10.71 7.27 36 20.37 32.12
Belarus (1995, 19971999) 33.24 32.88 32.54 269 1.08 1.04 6.62 9.58 11.43 88 44.67 19.32
Belgium (2004) 54.05 41.15 34.90 228 23.88 15.19 13.23 11.91 6.88 43 10.02 42.21
Bulgaria 19.36 16.28 28.24 150 15.89 73.43 6.02 6.29 12.28 61 4.53 95.15
Croatia 34.99 33.17 41.16 123 5.22 24.09 8.97 9.02 10.08 28 0.56 11.82
Czech Republic (19861989) 19.81 31.13 28.46 202 57.16 8.56 4.89 9.05 6.13 40 85.29 32.29
Denmark (2006) 35.47 30.96 20.19 63 12.74 34.78 8.99 6.98 6.40 19 22.40 8.33
Estonia 37.02 48.74 44.78 48 31.66 8.12 10.16 9.97 7.79 8 1.84 21.86
Finland 28.87 18.54 19.51 66 35.80 5.26 8.56 6.29 9.07 29 26.54 44.25
France 49.09 37.45 22.37 901 23.72 40.28 13.91 10.90 4.96 194 21.62 54.52
Germany (2006) 38.11 35.96 18.72 927 5.64 47.95 10.67 11.43 5.60 262 7.18 50.99
Greece 47.35 49.34 43.29 296 4.20 12.27 11.80 11.68 9.13 57 1.00 21.80
Hungary 35.02 24.38 22.78 152 30.38 6.57 9.09 8.36 7.41 47 7.93 11.40
Iceland 28.50 22.47 12.55 3 21.18 44.16 13.87 8.63 0.00 0 37.76 100.00
Ireland 36.73 31.22 19.09 60 14.99 38.85 8.65 8.02 4.92 15 7.30 38.67
Italy 37.77 35.78 27.36 859 5.26 23.53 8.52 8.54 6.86 200 0.19 19.67
Latvia 56.91 62.27 33.28 61 9.40 46.55 12.19 18.62 10.46 18 52.73 43.83
Lithuania 47.72 48.30 53.91 148 1.21 11.63 11.00 14.49 11.34 29 31.74 21.77
Luxembourg (2006) 84.88 37.33 20.10 6 56.02 46.16 20.75 18.84 10.78 3 9.20 42.78
Malta 19.69 14.59 9.81 3 25.90 32.78 2.46 2.23 3.33 1 9.47 49.52
Netherlands 23.23 20.66 13.27 134 11.07 35.77 7.56 6.09 3.94 38 19.43 35.38
Norway 34.04 23.48 12.86 39 31.01 45.26 8.93 6.60 2.42 7 26.08 63.36
Poland (19951996, 1999) 28.24 34.66 29.47 930 22.72 14.96 4.79 8.78 9.36 270 83.18 6.54
Portugal (2003) 61.84 46.78 39.56 289 24.35 15.44 9.54 10.58 9.28 62 10.80 12.22
Romania (1989) 7.40 14.19 24.11 401 91.79 69.86 2.66 5.58 8.31 128 109.40 48.94
Russian Federation (2006) 34.82 39.06 44.84 5620 12.15 14.80 8.02 13.81 16.29 1929 72.28 17.97
Slovakia (2005) 31.17 23.05 104 26.06 8.08 6.34 26 21.55
Slovenia 51.09 42.21 46.47 64 17.39 10.10 14.32 11.64 8.08 10 18.71 30.64
Spain (2005) 42.23 32.95 27.74 754 21.97 15.81 11.79 8.89 6.72 171 24.59 24.37
Sweden 28.03 12.32 14.58 88 56.06 18.34 8.68 4.43 4.19 24 48.98 5.41
Switzerland 43.95 22.79 14.42 67 48.14 36.74 10.76 6.88 2.45 11 36.05 64.45
Ukraine (2006) 37.40 23.45 38.70 1496 37.29 65.04 7.65 6.95 11.66 419 9.23 67.79
United Kingdom (UK) 28.36 17.63 16.57 696 37.83 6.04 7.04 5.08 4.35 170 27.83 14.39
UK, England and Wales 27.98 16.97 15.79 588 39.36 6.95 6.99 4.89 4.15 144 30.01 15.20
UK, Scotland 28.76 21.62 20.43 70 24.83 5.51 7.19 6.05 5.07 16 15.95 16.23
European Union 37.57 31.33 24.12 7764 16.60 23.01 9.57 8.86 6.50 1961 7.39 26.65
USA (2005) 53.64 38.59 37.36 8169 28.06 3.19 19.52 16.78 15.11 3069 14.05 9.95
Japan 31.78 22.89 9.75 660 27.98 57.41 5.54 5.69 2.79 179 2.60 50.87
a
In the last available calendar year.

Table 3
Age-adjusted (world population) mortality rates from motor vehicle accidents per 100,000 men and women aged 2564 years in selected European countries, the European Union
as a whole, Japan and the USA, around 1987 (19851989), 1997 (19951999) and in 2007, and corresponding percent changes in rates.

Men Women
1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change 1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change
deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997 deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997
Austria 26.12 16.59 12.59 283 36.49 24.09 6.33 4.77 2.99 70 24.64 37.29
Belarus (1995, 19971999) 27.94 36.69 38.56 983 31.34 5.08 5.70 8.73 9.27 255 53.28 6.20
Belgium (2004) 26.86 23.79 19.93 527 11.43 16.22 8.51 7.00 5.08 135 17.72 27.45
Bulgaria 21.39 19.38 24.06 504 9.40 24.18 5.84 4.39 4.79 109 24.85 9.07
Croatia 37.26 26.10 26.50 312 29.94 1.50 7.53 5.32 4.23 49 29.29 20.49
Czech Republic (19861989) 14.95 25.66 20.28 601 71.64 20.96 4.02 6.52 5.12 154 62.34 21.56
Denmark (2006) 15.76 13.94 7.79 116 11.49 44.13 6.21 4.52 2.17 33 27.13 51.97
Estonia 33.39 48.22 26.56 88 44.45 44.93 8.87 9.34 5.57 21 5.32 40.35
Finland 14.88 14.66 13.36 191 1.43 8.91 6.27 4.01 3.52 49 36.09 12.24
France 26.86 20.76 13.08 1994 22.72 36.98 8.65 6.64 3.00 489 23.30 54.73
Germany (2006) 15.25 14.56 9.81 2161 4.49 32.65 4.60 4.25 2.55 571 7.48 40.00
Greece 31.55 35.02 25.30 772 11.01 27.75 8.10 9.25 5.67 168 14.18 38.65
Hungary 28.59 31.64 28.87 797 10.65 8.74 7.52 6.99 6.32 185 6.97 9.58
Iceland 10.33 15.09 12.42 10 46.12 17.68 5.19 3.29 1.20 1 36.64 63.60
Ireland 17.78 16.96 10.05 121 4.60 40.76 5.12 5.43 2.55 29 6.11 53.16
Italy 22.63 19.91 17.18 2678 11.99 13.74 5.99 5.18 2.90 471 13.52 43.97
Latvia 44.69 59.34 41.71 241 32.79 29.72 10.01 12.76 10.01 64 27.44 21.49
Lithuania 43.26 45.54 50.32 422 5.26 10.52 9.79 10.01 10.89 102 2.19 8.80
Luxembourg (2006) 30.17 26.16 17.39 22 13.27 33.54 6.84 6.17 3.73 5 9.77 39.62
C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018 1013

Table 3 (continued)

Men Women
1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change 1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change
deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997 deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997
Malta 5.85 9.27 5.55 6 58.52 40.11 0.87 1.16 1.08 1 33.79 7.19
Netherlands 11.14 10.10 5.99 264 9.32 40.70 4.12 3.15 1.93 85 23.68 38.62
Norway 10.11 12.38 8.98 112 22.46 27.42 3.80 3.52 3.14 38 7.33 10.96
Poland (19951996, 1999) 30.29 35.91 28.18 2936 18.57 21.54 5.17 6.63 5.79 613 28.23 12.74
Portugal (2003) 48.04 33.21 31.63 879 30.86 4.77 9.32 6.98 6.83 196 25.08 2.19
Romania (1989) 18.02 24.60 28.96 1697 36.53 17.74 4.47 6.25 7.08 426 39.67 13.30
Russian Federation (2006) 33.17 42.27 50.62 18,573 27.43 19.75 6.88 10.54 13.20 5337 53.09 25.27
Slovakia (2005) 35.15 28.18 411 19.85 6.58 5.95 92 9.50
Slovenia 38.41 31.23 26.29 153 18.69 15.82 7.56 6.27 3.66 21 17.13 41.59
Spain (2005) 29.65 25.06 18.79 2316 15.48 25.02 7.13 6.09 3.88 467 14.48 36.36
Sweden 11.60 8.91 7.84 194 23.21 11.95 4.38 2.87 2.46 61 34.54 14.14
Switzerland 18.25 12.81 7.88 163 29.85 38.46 5.12 3.54 1.71 34 30.85 51.67
Ukraine (2006) 30.86 26.41 42.77 5022 14.42 61.96 6.09 5.82 9.37 1243 4.49 61.20
United Kingdom (UK) 11.45 8.46 8.93 1388 26.13 5.67 3.72 2.40 1.89 308 35.52 21.17
UK, England and Wales 10.95 8.23 8.66 1193 24.84 5.26 3.55 2.27 1.81 262 35.97 20.34
UK, Scotland 15.08 10.44 9.53 126 30.75 8.72 4.76 3.41 2.08 29 28.37 38.92
European Union 22.01 19.92 16.57 21,762 9.52 16.79 5.96 5.25 3.67 4925 12.00 30.13
USA (2005) 26.86 22.96 25.17 19,362 14.53 9.62 9.97 9.63 8.95 7034 3.35 7.08
Japan 13.35 13.29 7.04 2464 0.45 47.06 3.96 3.90 1.93 722 1.67 50.49
a
In the last available calendar year.

Table 4
Age-adjusted (world population) mortality rates from motor vehicle accidents per 100,000 men and women aged 65 or more years in selected European countries, the European
Union as a whole, Japan and the USA, around 1987 (19851989), 1997 (19951999) and in 2007, and corresponding percent changes in rates.

Men Women
1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change 1987 1997 2007 No. of % Change % Change
deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997 deathsa 1997/1987 2007/1997
Austria 38.73 21.73 16.25 101 43.89 25.24 17.72 9.39 6.94 63 47.03 26.11
Belarus (1995, 19971999) 26.59 25.94 28.93 136 2.41 11.52 10.48 10.85 12.19 123 3.46 12.43
Belgium (2004) 36.57 26.76 18.40 151 26.84 31.24 16.36 11.75 8.13 88 28.17 30.86
Bulgaria 26.98 22.09 22.91 125 18.15 3.75 11.32 8.86 9.84 89 21.73 10.99
Croatia 43.83 40.44 29.27 89 7.74 27.61 14.95 13.88 10.15 53 7.13 26.91
Czech Republic (19861989) 30.41 30.14 21.80 134 0.90 27.66 12.28 12.63 8.46 88 2.85 33.02
Denmark (2006) 32.77 23.73 12.26 49 27.58 48.33 14.90 10.90 5.75 32 26.84 47.26
Estonia 42.06 30.26 32.36 26 28.04 6.93 19.79 9.42 13.35 20 52.40 41.70
Finland 37.51 30.54 21.91 83 18.58 28.25 15.32 10.15 5.28 31 33.73 47.97
France 32.10 22.70 11.84 536 29.27 47.86 14.34 10.38 5.21 369 27.61 49.83
Germany (2006) 23.84 15.19 11.27 778 36.31 25.78 11.88 6.89 4.84 518 42.05 29.73
Greece 41.12 46.06 29.42 298 12.00 36.12 17.88 19.54 10.50 137 9.27 46.25
Hungary 50.98 37.89 29.91 185 25.68 21.06 19.60 12.93 11.15 120 34.07 13.73
Iceland 30.72 14.34 14.82 3 53.32 3.30 13.44 6.61 0.00 0 50.82 100.00
Ireland 32.58 22.93 17.56 42 29.61 23.42 13.34 11.67 6.52 22 12.47 44.11
Italy 45.70 33.55 18.42 1039 26.59 45.09 13.43 9.88 5.74 453 26.43 41.91
Latvia 52.01 43.73 39.41 52 15.93 9.88 20.57 17.78 13.40 38 13.58 24.63
Lithuania 56.66 42.42 42.07 76 25.14 0.84 25.98 17.05 18.23 67 34.39 6.91
Luxembourg (2006) 26.39 17.69 8.58 2 32.97 51.50 11.25 6.61 3.23 2 41.24 51.15
Malta 9.85 11.36 14.97 4 15.41 31.79 10.47 3.29 2.06 1 68.59 37.41
Netherlands 26.51 19.07 13.64 161 28.05 28.49 11.33 8.56 5.50 82 24.41 35.83
Norway 19.01 19.74 14.80 44 3.83 25.04 9.82 8.50 5.22 21 13.46 38.61
Poland (19951996, 1999) 40.92 40.20 33.57 671 1.75 16.50 16.83 17.09 13.17 467 1.55 22.95
Portugal (2003) 68.53 45.50 47.16 353 33.60 3.65 23.24 15.46 12.48 144 33.49 19.27
Romania (1989) 25.87 30.22 39.16 529 16.80 29.58 11.40 12.55 15.35 311 10.08 22.28
Russian Federation (2006) 29.11 29.97 38.19 2450 2.94 27.42 13.54 14.45 17.54 2480 6.69 21.39
Slovakia (2005) 41.91 29.08 67 30.60 14.16 9.97 41 29.58
Slovenia 54.80 43.53 29.33 36 20.56 32.63 20.47 17.36 12.85 25 15.19 25.95
Spain (2005) 36.91 29.44 22.80 724 20.25 22.54 14.00 10.88 7.40 340 22.27 32.02
Sweden 20.28 13.13 10.48 81 35.27 20.18 9.66 5.87 3.67 42 39.29 37.42
Switzerland 36.82 20.79 14.14 83 43.54 32.00 12.79 7.70 3.70 41 39.81 51.99
Ukraine (2006) 26.79 20.16 32.53 817 24.74 61.38 10.28 7.33 11.66 586 28.68 59.07
United Kingdom (UK) 18.55 10.51 8.00 388 43.36 23.88 10.46 5.82 4.43 303 44.42 23.90
UK, England and Wales 18.11 10.20 7.79 341 43.70 23.58 10.29 5.74 4.37 265 44.20 23.92
UK, Scotland 22.00 11.81 8.45 32 46.33 28.41 11.90 6.55 4.62 29 44.93 29.47
European Union 32.83 24.80 18.17 6691 24.48 26.72 13.62 9.88 7.12 3893 27.44 27.95
USA (2005) 29.38 28.74 28.08 4658 2.16 2.30 15.22 15.42 13.02 3082 1.28 15.53
Japan 33.44 34.28 18.16 2310 2.50 47.02 15.53 15.92 9.60 1740 2.49 39.68
a
In the last available calendar year.
1014 C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018

Table 5
Joinpoint analysis for mortality from motor vehicle accidents in men from selected European countries, at all ages and at 1524 years, 19802007.

Country Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4


Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC
All ages
Bulgaria 19802007 0.12*
Czech Republic 19861994 1.32* 19942007 0.51*
Denmark 19801999 0.21* 19992006 0.75*
France 19801996 0.68* 19962000 0.11 20002007 1.21*
Germany 19801987 1.42* 19871991 0.78 19912006 0.62*
Greece 19801995 0.26* 19952007 0.73*
Hungary 19801987 0.10 19871990 4.03* 19901994 2.77* 19942007 0.16
Italy 19801987 0.88* 19871991 0.25 19912007 0.42*
Netherlands 19801988 0.74* 19882000 0.12 2002007 0.59*
Poland 19831987 1.16 19871990 4.89* 19901993 2.10 19932007 0.52*
Portugal 19801986 1.98* 19861991 0.46 19912000 2.34* 20002003 2.65
Romania 19892007 0.19
Russian Federation 19801987 1.33* 19871990 7.12 19901996 2.02 19962006 1.09*
Spain 19801982 3.25 19821990 1.45* 19901993 2.68 19932005 0.31*
Sweden 19801989 0.12 19891995 0.96* 19952000 0.63* 200,02,007 0.38*
Switzerland 19801994 0.94* 19942007 0.47*
UK 19801990 0.18 19901994 1.07* 19942007 0.01
Ukraine 19811986 1.41* 19861989 5.39* 19891999 2.02* 19992006 2.20*
1524 years
Bulgaria 19802003 0.04
Czech Republic 19861992 2.78* 19922007 0.34*
Denmark 19802006 0.67*
France 19801996 1.47* 19961999 1.43 19992007 2.32*
Germany 19801986 3.77* 19861995 0.30 19952006 1.95*
Greece 19801983 5.80 19832007 0.41*
Hungary 19801987 0.01 19871990 5.10 19901996 4.07* 19962007 0.11
Italy 19801988 1.09* 19881991 3.92 19911994 2.90 19942007 0.77*
Netherlands 19801987 1.65* 19872000 0.16 20002007 1.22*
Poland 19831987 1.58 19871990 6.09 19902007 0.99*
Portugal 19801986 3.36 19861991 3.14 19911999 4.70* 19992003 1.91
Romania 19892007 0.51*
Russian Federation 19801986 1.97* 19861989 8.34 19891996 1.66 19962006 1.10*
Spain 19801982 5.43 19821990 3.75* 19901994 5.41* 19942005 0.11
Sweden 19801988 0.26 19881995 2.63* 19952001 1.17* 20012007 0.66
Switzerland 19801990 1.37* 19901994 3.95 19942007 0.70*
UK 19801998 1.04* 19982007 0.20
Ukraine 19811986 0.73 19861989 7.78 19891997 3.98* 19972006 1.88*
*
Signicantly different from 0 (p < 0.05). APC, annual percent change.

Fig. A1, reported in Appendix A, shows joinpoint regression vehicles, and on the other hand, the decrease of the political weight
analysis graphs, corresponding to Tables 5 and 6. of road safety and the decrease in police enforcement. In Hungary,
for instance, from 1987 to 1990 there was a deteriorating trend,
mainly due to the change of the political and social systems; from
4. Discussion 1991 to 2000 there was an important reduction in fatalities (more
than 50%), probably due to the introduction of safety measures,
The major nding of the present report is the decline in mortal- such as the First National Road Safety Programme (European
ity rates from motor vehicle crashes between 1980 and 2007 across Commission, 2011b); from 2001 to 2006 there was a deteriorating
Europe both in men and women at all ages. Between 1987 and trend again mainly due to the increase in speed limits outside
2007 the overall fall in the EU was 35% in men and 41% in women. built-up areas; from 2007 until now there was a great decrease
Mortality has long been decreasing in most northern and western in fatalities, mainly due to consistent road safety measures and
European countries, whereas trends were somewhat variable in to the economic recession (Holl et al., 2010).
countries of southern Europe and particularly of CEE. Rates were Similarly, in Germany the upward trends between the mid
higher among young people and among men as compared to 1980s and mid 1990s are largely due to the re-unication with
women. the former German Democratic Republic (Winston et al., 1999).
In most high income countries of North America and Europe, The fall in mortality rates in the EU overall and in many coun-
declining trends in mortality have started in the 1970s, but favour- tries can be explained by multisectoral strategic plans that have
able trends were larger over most recent years. Further, recent been implemented. In fact, the inclusion of road safety in the polit-
trends became favourable in middle-income countries of central ical agenda and the subsequent implementation of several road
and eastern Europe, as well as in Spain, Portugal and Greece, safety interventions have reduced the number of deaths in road
although mortality has showed upward trends in the 1990s (La trafc collisions (Koornstra et al., 2002; Novoa et al., 2011). The dif-
Vecchia et al., 1994). ferences in trends across European countries are at least in part
The inconsistent trends in CEE countries around the 1990s are attributable to different adoption of road safety policies and their
due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the consequent effectiveness. In fact, building capacity for systematic safety man-
socio-economic changes. The political and social changes have as agement is a long-term process that in western and northern coun-
a consequence, on one hand, the increasing number of motor tries has developed over an extended period of motorisation: some
C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018 1015

Table 6
Joinpoint analysis for mortality from motor vehicle accidents in women from selected European countries, at all ages and at 1524 years, 19802007.

Country Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4


Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC
All ages
Bulgaria 19802003 0.08* 20032007 0.41
Czech Republic 19861995 0.37* 19951998 0.45 19982002 0.19 20022007 0.45*
Denmark 19802006 0.17*
France 19802001 0.21* 20012007 0.48*
Germany 19801987 0.45* 19871990 0.23 19902002 0.16* 20022006 0.37*
Greece 19801996 0.06 19962007 0.34*
Hungary 19801987 0.10 19871990 4.03* 19901994 2.77* 19942007 0.16
Italy 19802007 0.12*
Netherlands 19802007 0.14*
Poland 19831987 0.28 19871990 0.96 19902007 0.11
Portugal 19801995 0.07 19952000 0.87* 20002003 0.93
Romania 19892007 0.05
Russian Federation 19801987 0.20 19871991 1.12* 19911996 0.20 19962006 0.34*
Spain 19801982 1.10 19821989 0.44* 19891993 0.50 19932005 0.14*
Sweden 19801990 0.02 19901994 0.41 19942007 0.07*
Switzerland 19801982 0.40 19821985 0.76 19852007 0.21*
UK 19802000 0.14* 20002007 0.02
Ukraine 19811985 0.28 19851990 0.71 19901999 0.43 19992006 0.58
1524 years
Bulgaria 19802003 0.07
Czech Republic 19862001 0.38* 20012007 0.73*
Denmark 19802006 0.21*
France 19801996 0.42* 19961999 0.52 19992007 0.86*
Germany 19801983 0.15 19831986 1.24 19861998 0.11* 19982006 0.76*
Greece 19801984 1.26* 19842007 0.14*
Hungary 19801987 0.01 19871990 5.10 19901996 4.07* 19962007 0.11
Italy 19802007 0.06*
Netherlands 19802007 0.22*
Poland 19831987 0.31 19871991 0.70* 19912007 0.11*
Portugal 19801995 0.16 19952003 0.47
Romania 19892007 0.22*
Russian Federation 19801987 0.15 19871990 1.78 19902006 0.33*
Spain 19801983 0.46 19831989 1.23* 19891994 1.12* 19942005 0.07
Sweden 19801990 0.12 19901994 1.08 19942007 0.00
Switzerland 19802007 0.45*
UK 19802007 0.15*
Ukraine 19811985 0.24 19851990 0.98* 19901999 0.50* 19992006 0.73*
*
Signicantly different from 0 (p < 0.05). APC, annual percent change.

of the countries with lower mortality rates, such as Sweden, the medical and mechanical assistance, re brigades) in the best con-
Netherlands and the UK, have put into legislation models in which ditions to effectively shorten the communication chain between
effective partnerships are the key method of delivering road safety the crash and the rescue, thus minimising the post crash collateral
plans, setting targets and introducing other safety performance losses. Various studies worldwide have shown that death was
indicators (Belin et al., 1997; Koornstra et al., 2002; Wegman and potentially preventable in a large proportion of those who died
Elsenaar, 1997). In most CEE countries, in contrast, systematic as a result of road crashes before they reached hospital (Mock
safety management is generally weaker and needs to be strength- et al., 1997; Hussain and Redmond, 1994). In most European coun-
ened (Laamme and Diderichsen, 2000). Such strategies addressed tries an eCall in-vehicle emergency service has been improved. It is
different elements of the trafc system: vehicles, road infrastruc- aimed at reducing the effects of crashes by allowing the communi-
tures, rescue, medical treatments, and road users and human cation between an In Vehicle System and a corresponding infra-
factors. structure of Public Safety Answering Points (2010/40/EC)
There is evidence that vehicle-centred safety during the period (European Commission, 2011c).
considered has appreciably contributed to the observed declining Improvements in medical treatments have also contributed to
trends, though quantication of each single measure remains elu- the declines in mortality from road trafc crashes (Anonymous,
sive (Anonymous, 2011; Evans, 2003; Koornstra et al., 2002). 2011; CRASH-2 Collaborators and Intracranial Bleeding Study,
As regards road infrastructures and road design, stakeholders 2011). The importance of early rehabilitation has also been proved,
responsible for (or interested in) improving road environment though best practise in treatment programmes has yet to be iden-
and reducing crash mortality have developed solutions which tied (European Transport Safety Council, 1999), and several coun-
reduced the number of view obstructions, improved the line- tries need to increase the capacity of their health care systems to
of-sight and the conditions of roadways for vulnerable road users provide adequate rehabilitation to survivors of road trafc crashes.
(Akerman et al., 2000; Federal Highway Administration, 2010; It is more difcult to determine whether the observed decrease
Fischer et al., 2010; Jacobsen, 2003). is also due to changed road users drive attitudes: the human fac-
Another important aspect is the efcacy and reduction of criti- tors (age, sex, experience, tness, emotion, health, alcohol/drugs,
cal assistance times in attending road emergencies and the capacity of reaction, . . .) still remain the most common cause of
improvement in functional communication mechanisms that can road crashes (European Union and IRU 2007; European Association
put all the actors of the rescue chain (police force, road operators, of Motorcycle Manufacturers, 2009; Magazz et al., 2006;
1016 C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018

Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark


40 40 50

Deaths per 100 000

Deaths per 100 000


Deaths per 100 000
40
30 30
30
20 20
20
10 10 10

0 0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Calendar year Calendar year Calendar year

France Germany Greece


70 70 60

Deaths per 100 000


Deaths per 100 000

Deaths per 100 000


60 60 50
50 50 40
40 40
30
30 30
20
20 20
10 10 10
0 0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Calendar year Calendar year Calendar year

Hungary Italy The Netherlands


60 60 40
Deaths per 100 000

Deaths per 100 000


Deaths per100 000

50 50
30
40 40
30 30 20
20 20
10
10 10
0 0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Calendar years Calendar year Calendar year

Poland Portugal Romania


50 100 30
Deaths per 100 000
Deaths per 100 000

Deaths per 100 000

90
40 80
70 20
30 60
50
20 40
30 10
10 20
10
0 0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Calendar year Calendar year Calendar yeasr

Russian Federation Spain Sweden


60 60 40
Deaths per 100 000
Deaths per 100 000
Deaths per 100 000

50 50
30
40 40
30 30 20
20 20
10
10 10
0 0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Calendar years Calendar years Calendar years

Switzerland UK Ukraine
60 50
Deaths per 100 000

Deaths per 100 000

60
Deaths per 100 000

50 40 50
40 40
30
30 30
20
20 20
10 10 10
0 0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Calendar years Calendar years Calendar years
Men 15-24 years Men 0-85 years Women 15-24 years Women 0-85 years

Fig. A1. Joinpoint analysis for mortality from motor vehicle crashes in selected European countries, at all ages and at age 1524 years, 19802007.
C. Orsi et al. / Safety Science 50 (2012) 10091018 1017

Marchetti et al., 2009; Orsi et al., 2009; Petridou and Moustaki, have long been favourable. This conrms that effective counter-
2000; Robb et al., 2008). measures exist and that there is scope for future improvements.
High rates in men and in the young are consistent with previous As the human factors are a major cause of road crashes, preven-
investigations (Alvarez and Fierro, 2008; Kim et al., 2006; Valent tive measures have to focus on road users. Strict restrictions of
et al., 2002). In fact, young age, inexperience and risk taking behav- alcohol drinking should be endorsed. Lifelong training interven-
iour contribute to the high risk of young drivers. Men, especially in tions, not only in the driving schools, are needed. Opportunities
their younger age, have higher rates of crash involvement than for road education in order to understand how each road user
women, even when corrected for exposure factors (Cerrelli, 1998). operates and functions in trafc should be created.
Alcohol is an important cause of road crash mortality, though It is also important to carry out real world crash analyses with a
quantication of its role remains open to discussion (Laapotti common standard for in-depth crash analysis in order to give the
and Keskinen, 2008; Ricci et al., 2008). Over the last decades, alco- responsible stakeholders a tool for better assessment and improve-
hol drinking has substantially declined in France, Italy and other ment of the situation and harmonise global legislation. A common
southern European countries, but not in northern, western, and understanding and approach of crash analysis could support a vi-
eastern Europe (La Vecchia, 2001; Bosetti et al., 2007). This may ex- sion of zero deaths.
plain at least part of the excess mortality in the CEE countries, Specic focus is required for urgent intervention to prevent
while reecting the stricter embracement of policies against avoidable deaths from motor vehicle crashes in selected CEE coun-
alcohol in drivers in northern Europe (Marks and Williams, 2007; tries, where deaths rates remain excessively high.
Britton et al., 2003).
Another important aspect that could also explain, at least in Acknowledgements
part, the differences in trends across European countries is the
different level of motorisation across countries, conrming the This work was conducted with the contribution of the Italian
Smeeds law (Smeed, 1949). Countries with lower mortality rates Association for Cancer Research, the Swiss League Against Cancer
(for example the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK) have among and the Swiss Foundation for Research Against Cancer.
the highest level of motorisation while the worst performing
ones have the lowest ones.
Use of international data requires homogenous denitions to Appendix A
derive meaningful comparisons, but several countries still do not
comply with the international denitions of injuries, crashes, and See Fig. A1.
casualties recommended by the 1968 Vienna Convention (United
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