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In May and June 2010 Chinese workers organized strikes, which spread across factories in southern China. By citing
labor law protections passed in 2008, they secured tacit government approval for their labor action and got pay rises
and better working conditions from their employers. In August Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao delivered a prominent
speech warning that Chinas economy and national modernization process would be jeopardized if the country failed
to undertake systemic political reform. In October, the jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo, one of hundreds of Chinese that
signed a 2008 charter calling for constitutional democracy, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Together, these
events called attention to the prospects for social and political reform in China.
In fact, there is no indication that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will launch major political reforms in the near
term. Wens speech did, however, identify Chinas central long-term challenge: on the one hand, Chinese society is
growing more complex, demanding, and robust; on the other, its authoritarian state remains committed to
maintaining a brittle form of social and political control. In a July/August 2001 Foreign Affairs article, Chinas
Coming Transformation, we argued that emerging tensions between Chinas state and society would push forward
social and political reform because any failure to reform would intensify social conflict, jeopardize economic growth,
and undermine the CCPs ability to govern. At the same time, we warned, Chinas transformation could prove to be
longer and more tumultuous than many have expected.
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