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Sector: Cement
Year End: June
Consolidated/Stanalone: Standalone
Current Shares (Mn): 323.38
Current Price (PKR): 148.76
Target Price (PKR): 503.19 Jan-00
BALANCE SHEET
Cash & cash equivalents 45 15 24
Trade debts - 6
Inventory 63 66
Investments - -
Other working capital assets 347 402
Current assets 425 498
Fixed assets 3,904 3,785
Intangible assets
Investments 200 200
Other non-current assets 54 43
TOTAL ASSETS 4,583 4,526
Creditors 178 238
Other working capital liabilities 7 7
Dividends payable - -
Short term borrowings 221 175
Current maturities: long term debt 115 134
Current liabilities 521 599
Long term debt 518 408
Deferred liabilities - -
Other long-term liabilities 251 169
TOTAL LIABILITIES 1,290 1,176
Minority Interests - -
Preferred shares - -
Shareholders' equity 3,294 3,350
TOTAL SOURCES 4,584 4,526
Check OK OK
SUPPLEMENTARY DATA
Period end shares (mn) 263 263
Weighted average shares (mn) 263 263
Capital employed 4,148 4,067
Net Debt 839 693
Enterprise Value 40,022 39,876
RATIOS
EPS - rec (0.42) 0.22
EPS - rep (0.42) 0.22
DPS - -
BVPS 12.51 12.72
PER (354.28) 691.06
EV/EBITDA 277.16 108.74
P/BV 11.90 11.70
Div Yield 0.0% 0.0%
ROCE -0.7% 3.8%
ROA -2.4% 1.2%
ROE -3.4% 1.7%
Gearing 0.25 0.21
Turnover Growth #DIV/0! 45.9%
EBITDA Growth #DIV/0! 153.9%
Net Profit Growth #DIV/0! -151.3%
EV/ton -
EPS-period end
Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05
A A A A A A A
18 6 3 2 2 2 2
3,947 3,794 4,185 4,224 5,034 13,464 19,167
8,314 8,169 9,054 9,041 12,046 28,271 42,789
- - - - 9 125 190
195 304 317 190 - 617 2,383
130 119 47 278 569 786 646
25 36 46 32 - - 82
598 638 739 753 931 2,143 4,752
948 637 739 753 931 3,671 8,053
- - - 230 498 859 1,436
102 106 118 114 126 141 208
393 290 339 444 1,774 7,530 11,801
1,443 1,033 1,196 1,541 3,329 12,201 21,498
- - - - - ### -
- - - - - ### -
4,567 4,576 4,868 4,818 7,012 14,807 23,623
6,010 5,609 6,064 6,359 10,341 27,008 45,121
2,304 2,560 2,990 2,682 1,705 1,263 (2,332)
227 - - - - - -
165 - - - - - -
(108) - (118) 216 (68) 530 438
284 - - - - - -
(109) Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509
81 - - - - - -
Err:509
256 - - - - - -
(81) - - - - - -
(101) - - - - - -
- - - - - ### -
- - - - - - -
27 - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- Err:509 44 Err:509 Err:509 - Err:509
27 Err:509 44 Err:509 Err:509 - Err:509
OK Err:509 39 Err:509 Err:509 859 Err:509
2 2 58 61 59 3 557
20,321 25,883 30,534 31,439 31,766 31,077 37,190
46,045 60,122 68,927 69,749 72,976 71,651 81,744
326 289 233 156 85 13 8
1,615 242 - 176 265 265 265
2,864 3,607 6,188 6,267 6,302 - -
0 - - - - - -
6,352 7,688 9,098 9,642 10,696 3,624 3,846
11,157 11,826 15,519 16,241 17,348 3,903 4,119
1,516 1,059 1,478 1,563 1,653 53 5,130
173 204 264 351 429 3,300 -
10,018 7,897 6,042 3,573 2,740 3,745 5,315
22,864 20,986 23,303 21,728 22,170 11,000 14,565
- ### - - - - -
- ### - - - - -
25,724 34,239 38,392 38,311 41,209 40,631 50,196
48,588 55,225 61,695 60,039 63,379 51,632 64,761
(2,543) 4,897 7,232 9,710 9,597 20,019 16,983
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
(1,578) (2,382) 772 729 (1,456) 305 (12)
- - - - - - -
Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- ### - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509
Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509
Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509
43,083 43,822
(26,471) (23,434)
16,612 20,388 -
(2,064) (2,197)
14,548 18,190 -
(34) (21)
(57) (340)
14,456 17,829 -
(3,112) (2,900)
11,344 14,929 -
- - -
11,344 14,929 -
- - -
11,344 14,929 -
- - -
11,344 14,929 -
- -
11,344 14,929 -
3,234 2,910
2,587 3,234
8,519 18,551
2,078 2,113
1,639 1,667
- -
7,364 7,490
19,600 29,821 -
31,937 33,240
76 76
40,198 41,501
91,811 104,638 -
3 3
127 127
- -
257 257
4,484 3,990
4,872 4,378 -
5,454 5,454
- -
5,521 5,521
15,847 15,353 -
- -
- -
59,798 71,322
75,645 86,675 -
16,166 17,962 OK
- 14,929
- 2,197
122 62
- 12,942
Err:509 Err:509
- 21
- 12,963
- (21)
- -
- -
- -
- 12,942
- (2,910)
Err:509 Err:509
Err:509 Err:509
Err:509 Err:509
323 323
323 323
69,993 81,023
1,676 (8,850)
49,781 39,256
2014E
35.08
35.08
10.00
16.4%
4.24
6.7%
3.00
<---- QUARTERLY DATA----->
1,007
(595)
- 412
(54)
- 358
(8)
18
- 368
(80)
- 288
- -
- 288
- -
- 288
- -
- 288
- 288
- -
- -
- - - 288
- - - 54
- 145 (464) 92
- 145 (464) 434
- (5,013) (3,010) 2,081
- - - 5
- - - 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
24,747 24,628 25,724 26,251 29,286 31,046 34,239
1,480 1,218 1,547 1,771 1,633 1,535 3,550
70 209 326 377 347 501 289
316 287 - - - - -
2,285 2,244 2,864 3,091 4,015 4,614 3,607
1,790 2,140 1,615 832 1,082 1,369 242
5,941 6,098 6,352 6,071 7,077 8,019 7,688
9,362 8,553 8,329 8,906 10,468 10,712 6,633
1,627 1,662 1,516 1,334 1,174 1,071 1,059
219 163 173 185 194 204 204
17,149 16,476 16,370 16,496 18,913 20,006 15,584
2 2 2 58 58 61 60
2 2 2 58 58 61 60
37,244 36,573 37,951 38,392 37,635 38,171 37,912
3,218 2,157 2,358 233 236 168 156
302 487 319 - - 182 319
- - - - - - -
5,881 5,282 5,216 6,188 7,331 7,523 -
204 - 167 - - 10,335 9,550
9,605 7,926 8,060 9,098 9,959 10,335 9,550
6,633 6,550 6,550 4,300 1,454 1,651 1,651
1,171 1,262 1,363 1,478 1,589 1,651 1,651
217 241 251 264 280 302 3,844
17,626 15,979 16,224 15,140 13,281 14,305 13,394
61 59 59 59 59 - 3
58 57 57 61 31,766 31,775 31,555
38,310 39,523 40,049 40,805 72,976 72,821 73,504
156 129 164 87 85 52 58
176 242 265 265 265 1,594 265
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
9,642 10,903 12,036 11,788 10,696 10,306 9,538
9,642 10,903 12,036 11,789 11,046 11,952 9,862
1,563 1,563 1,563 1,595 1,653 1,775 1,961
351 377 397 418 429 448 434
3,573 2,797 2,751 2,738 2,740 2,815 2,970
13,215 13,700 14,787 14,527 15,868 16,990 15,227
3 3 3 2 59 557
31,344 31,077 30,839 30,578 37,073 37,190
72,602 71,651 73,823 74,002 79,431 81,744
86 13 12 5,195 3,947 3,572
265 265 265 - 265 265
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
6,835 3,624 3,578 5,195 5,004 3,846
7,187 3,903 3,856 10,391 9,216 7,684
2,361 53 3,809 0 4,425 5,130
493 3,300 51 50 54 -
3,313 3,745 4,187 677 4,673 5,315
13,354 11,000 11,903 11,118 18,369 18,129
Terminal Value
growth rate for FCFE
Total PV 162,681
Shares 323.30
Price/share ###
Equity 90%
FY20 Debt 10%
837
419
223 WACC 12.66%
Terminal 4%
1.29
13,575
6,788
3620
20.99
59.50
81.79
15
Lucky Cement Company Limited
Amounts in PKR Mn 1,915 2,180 1,971 1,584
Target Price 587
Year ending 30th June Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03
VOLUMES
CAPACITY
Clinker Mn Tons 1.320 1.320 1.440 1.440
-Pezu 1.32 1.32 1.44 1.44
-Karachi - - ### -
Cement "" 1.390 1.390 1.510 1.510
-Pezu 1.39 1.39 1.51 1.51
-Karachi
PRODUCTION
Clinker Mn Tons 0.819 0.824 0.731 1.054
-Pezu 0.82 1.35 1.35
-Karachi
Cement "" 0.857 0.826 0.784 1.087
-Pezu 0.83 0.78 1.09
-Karachi
CAP UTILIZATION 61.7% 59.4% 51.9% 72.0%
-Pezu
-Karachi
INVENTORY
Clinker Mn Tons
Cement ""
SALE
Clinker Mn Tons
- Local ""
- Export ""
Cement "" 0.837 0.821 0.785 1.102
- Local "" 0.837 0.821 0.785 1.102
- Export ""
Local Despatches
Pezu
Karachi
Exports
Pezu
Karachi
Dispatches 0.840 0.820 0.780 1.100
-Pezu 0.840 0.820 0.780 1.100
-Karachi 1.119 - - ### -
SALES
Export Sales-Actual
Export Sales "" - - 9 78
PKR/USD 51.80 58.40 61.40 58.50
Cement Prices
Ex-Factory PKR/Bag 193 188 208 177
Power Mix
Pezu
- Own Generation
- N. Gas
- FO
Karachi
- Own Generation
- N. Gas
- FO
Fuel Required for Power
- N.Gas MMBTU/Kwh 8,530 8,530 8,530
- FO grams/kwh 194 194 194
Fuel Consumption for Power
- N.Gas MMBTU
- FO Kgs
Richard Bay
Calculated Fuel
Differential
BENCHMARK PRICES
Coal (FOB) USD/Ton 36 39 39
Coal (C&F) "" 43 47 47
Coal (C&F) PKR/Ton 2,523 2,874 2,738
Furnace Oil ""
Ex- Arl "" 7,289 11,181 10,985 12,937
Ex - Kemari "" 7,079 7,409 10,907
Natural Gas PKR/MMBTU 321 331 341
RDF PKR/Ton
INPUT COSTS
Coal PKR/ton 421 479 456
Furnace Oil - Pezu PKR/ton 1,034 1,016 1,196
Furnace Oil - Khi 655 685 1,009
RDF PKR/ton
Natural Gas (For Power) PKR/KWh 2.74 2.82 2.91
FO
-Pezu PKR/KWh - 2.17 2.14 2.52
-Karachi PKR/KWh - 1.38 1.44 2.12
FIXED ASSETS
INCOME STATEMENT
0% 0% 0% 2%
Gross Sales 3,228 3,082 3,256 3,808
Local 3,228 3,082 3,247 3,730
Export - - 9 78
Government Levies (1,172) (879) (1,278) (1,618)
Agent Commission
Net Sales 2,049 2,203 1,978 2,190
Cost of sales 1,609 1,788 1,537 1,742
Opening Finished Goods 8 41 56 51
Cost of Goods Manufactured 1,642 1,803 1,532 1,709
Opening WIP 50 51 127 61
Manufacturing costs 1,643 1,879 1,466 1,706
Salaries, wages and other benefits 83 77 97 98
Raw Material 37 44 36 54
Packaging Material 200 199 154 224
Fuel and Power 1,021 1,301 825 951
Stores and spares consumed 83 53 96 93
Repair and maintenance 6 5 15 14
Depreciation & Amortisation 162 161 194 210
Insurance 27 19 26 36
Provision for slow moving spares - - ### -
Earth Moving Machinery - - ### -
Vehicle running - - ### -
Communication - - ### -
Mess Subsidy - - ### -
Transportation - - ### -
Traveling and conveyance - - ### -
Inspection fee for Electrical installation - - ### -
Rent, rates and taxes - - ### -
Printing and Stationary - - ### -
Other expenses 24 20 23 26
Closing WIP (51) (127) (61) (58)
Closing Finished Goods (41) (56) (51) (18)
Own Consumption Capitalized - - ### -
Gross Profit 440 415 441 448
Adminstrative Expense 41 50 45 39
Salaries, wages and other benefits 14 18 19 19
Depreciation & Amortisation 2 2 ### 3
Others 25 30 24 17
Selling & Distribution Expenses 16 19 21 18
Salaries, wages and other benefits 8 9 9 ###
Freight charges - - ### -
Depreciation & Amortisation - - ### -
Others 8 10 12 9
Other Operating Expenses 12 14 16 18
WPPF 12 14 16 18
Others - - - -
Other Operating Income 0 - 1 -
Gain on Disposal of Fixed Assets - - 1 -
Others 0 - - -
EBIT 371 332 360 373
Depreciation & Amortisation 165 162 195 213
EBITDA 536 494 555 586
Financial Charges 124 65 53 29
Interest & Markup 104 55 46 24
Others 20 10 7 5
Profit Before Taxation 247 267 307 344
Taxation 18 11 10 115
Current 10 10 11
Prior 7 88
Deferred 16
Profit After Tax 229 256 297 229
BALANCE SHEET
Assets
Non-Current Assets
Net PPE 3,729 3,588 4,182 4,222
Intangibles
Long Term Investments 200 200 -
Other Long Term Assets 18 6 3 2
Total Long Term Assets 3,947 3,794 4,185 4,224
Current Assets
Stores and Spares 214 246 329 326
Inventory 104 193 131 115
Trade Debts 16 44 16 5
Short Term Investments - - ### -
Other Current Assets 234 249 154 107
Cash 52 49 54 40
Total Current Assets 620 781 684 593
Total Assets 4,567 4,575 4,869 4,817
Equity
Paid up 2,450 2,450 ### 2,450
Retained earnings/reserves 1,126 1,198 1,340 1,171
Total Equity 3,576 3,648 3,790 3,621
Non-Current Liabs
Long Term Loans 291 184 221 100
Deferred Taxation - - ### 230
Other Liabilities 102 106 118 114
Total Long Term Liabilites 393 290 339 444
Current Liabs
Trade Creditors and Other Payabes 248 179 329 253
Taxation 25 36 46 32
Accrued Interest - - ###
Current portion of long term loans 195 120 ### -
Short-term borrowings 130 119 47 278
Dividends Payable - 184 197 190
Total Current Liablilities 598 638 739 753
Equity and Liabs 4,567 4,576 4,868 4,818
CASH FLOWS
Net Income
D&A
Working Capital
Capex
Cash flow from operations
Interest expense
Net debt
FCFF
Interest expense
Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE)
Dividends
Net Cash Flow
Starting cash
Ending cash 52
check
Cash 2% 3% 2%
Trade Debts 1% 0%
Inventory 9% 7% 5%
Stores and Spares 11% 17% 15%
Other Current Assets 11% 8% 5%
Total Current Assets
Net PPE 3,588 4,182 4,222
growth in PPE
Long Term Investments
Other Long Term Assets 172% 212% 193%
Total Long Term Assets
Total Assets
Industry Dispatches
-Local
-Exports
Lucky cement Share
-Local
-Exports
Price 457.00
EPS 0.79 0.92 0.71
EBITDA/ton 602 707 532
EV - Non core 148,407 148,513 148,757
EV- core 148,401 148,510 148,755
EV/EBITDA 300.42 267.59 253.85
Debt/EBITDA 1.36 1.41 1.73
PER 577.27 497.58 645.34
Retention Price/ton 2,683 2,520 1,987
COGS/ton 1,982 1,711 1,390
Opex/ton 82 82 49
EV/ton 180,764 189,189 134,989
EBITDA margin 22% 28% 27%
Gross Profit 19% 22% 20%
ROA #REF! #REF! #REF!
ROE 7.02% 7.84% 6.32%
D/E 0.15 0.16 0.21
Cost of debt financing
P/BV 33.06 31.11 31.42
Div Yield
1,613 1,831 2,305 1,907 2,135 2,790 2,492
2.13 2.55 5.99 7.88 8.28 14.22 9.72
Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10
26 26 26 26 ### 26 ###
39 39 39 39 ### 39 ###
14 14 14 14 ### 14 ###
980 980 980 980 ### 980 ###
41 56 48 50 82 117 79
49 67 58 60 98 140 94
2,832 3,989 3,448 3,641 6,120 11,017 7,922
- - 3 6 7 9 11
- - 208 370 421 707 963
- - - - ### - ###
2 ### 2 2 ### 58 61
5,034 13,464 19,167 20,321 25,883 30,534 31,439
0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 15% 30% 13% 1% 0% 1%
187% 249% 331% 419% 726% 616% 617%
6% 1% 6% 3%
4.27% 1.77% 2.18% 4.35% 3.78% 3.77% 4.50%
21.59 10.64 19.53 19.70 15.27 16.58 9.05
852,500,000
118,403
118
2,968 3,473 3,447 3,746
12.27 20.97 30.15 35.08 46.17 42.89 48.98 52.78
Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18
0.996
4% 1% 7% 3%
5.831 5.932 6.107 6.512 6.805 6.994 6.595 6.690
3.121 2.572 2.767 2.964 3.081 3.116 3.348 3.432
2.710 3.360 3.340 3.548 3.724 3.878 3.248 3.258
26 ### 26 26 26 26 26 26
39 ### 39 39 39 39 39 39
14 ### 14 14 14 14 14 14
980 ### 980 980 980 980 980 980
95 ### 83 83 83 71 71 71
63 ### 63 63 60 51 51 51
44 44 38 38 38 33 33 33
27 27 27 27 26 22 22 22
- - - - - - -
- ### - - - - -
-3% -5% 4% 2%
108 107 85 77 65 60 64 66
130 128 102 93 90 85 89 91
11,135 11,256 9,883 9,535 9,027 8,893 9,607 10,223
-34% -23% 2% 2%
61,750 85,797 84,944 86,098 57,208 44,021 44,908 45,813
59,898 78,933 78,149 79,210 52,632 40,499 41,315 42,148
510 510 524 648 817 800 800 800
7,527 6,851 5,859 5,263 4,512 4,447 4,804 5,112
15 15 16 13 13 12 11 -
1,304 1,316 1,521 1,292 1,293 1,200 1,200 -
1,140
90 1,208
3,969 6,782 9,749 11,344 14,929 13,871 15,838 17,120
0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
647% 6870% 75% 82% 73% 71% 72%
2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4.95% 5.55% 6.08% 6.46% 6.61% 6.55% 2.75%
17.52 13.98 13.82 13.89 13.89 13.89 13.89
- - - -
-4% -4%
6.795 6.911 0.420 0.920 0.583 0.280
4.795 4.990 0.338 0.766 0.478 0.279
1.999 1.921 0.082 0.154 0.105 0.001
3% 3%
6.795 6.911 0.421 0.499 0.583 0.693
3.521 3.616 0.288 0.356 0.403 0.509
3.274 3.295 0.133 0.143 0.180 0.184
7,815 8,176
391 409
58 58
6,818 7,095
26 26 26 26 26 26
39 39 39 39 39 39
14 14 14 14 14 14
980 980 980 980 980 980
80% 80%
0% 0%
20% 20%
137 137 89 89 89 89
- - 32 32 32 32
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
111 111
- -
51 51
- -
95% 95%
5% 5%
2% 2%
68 70 52 52 52 52
93 95 63 63 63 63
10,873 11,559 3,758 3,763 3,773 3,784
2% 2%
46,736 47,678
42,997 43,864
800 800 265 265 265 265
5,437 5,780
9.09 9.27 - - - -
8.36 8.53 - - - -
320 347 - - - -
1,155 1,214
433 435 110 115 112 119
509 511 162 162 162 162
352 352 - - - -
3,170 4,304 - - - -
4,927 6,984
1,281 1,362 - - - -
- -
- - - - - -
#REF! #REF!
(665) (668)
133,044 133,576
21% 20%
64,141 68,543
50,510 54,918
13,631 13,625
(11,376) (12,356)
(758) (824)
52,007 55,363 1,493 1,819 2,049 2,693
23,961 25,737 964 1,088 1,310 1,711
201 210
23,969 25,745
715 743
23,997 25,775
1,395 1,510
2,175 2,395
3,680 4,012
13,253 14,170
1,962 2,098
120 128
632 634
64 62
122 132
310 335
94 101
11 11
42 44
6 7
9 9
- -
5 5
13 14
104 108
(743) (773)
(210) (218)
1,403 1,494 25 34 34 41
0 0 0 -
` 0 0 -
22,796 24,275 482 668 678 808
665 668 94 95 97 131
23,461 24,943 576 763 775 939
5 - 9 15 32 27
0% 2% 3% 3%
0% 0% 41% 114% 79% 88%
238% 407% 383% 331%
#REF! 0% 0% 0%
0.63% 0.57% 0.55% 0.68%
37.89 63.21 44.00 58.42
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
2,175 1,785 1,823 1,883 1,946 1,997 2,329
26 26 26 26 26 26 26
39 39 39 39 39 39 39
14 14 14 14 14 14 14
980 980 980 980 980 980 980
13 26 26 26 26 26 26
52 46 48 54 61 71 100
63 56 58 64 74 85 120
3,801 3,390 3,514 3,909 4,463 5,187 7,516
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
3,078 2,363 3,292 3,789 3,652 3,548 4,665
2,160 1,812 2,484 2,390 2,656 2,607 3,481
36 17 32 57 59 124 145
- 0 67 562 0 3 1
- 0 67 562 0 3 1
851 497 791 1,415 721 573 682
187 208 226 262 236 243 243
1,038 705 1,017 1,677 957 816 925
171 167 186 339 154 96 97
- - - - - - -
2 ### 2 ### 2 ### 2
19,102 19,920 20,042 20,321 20,580 22,519 23,505
329
263 263 - 329 -
23 23 25 29 30 32 34
2% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
52% 76% 65% 43% 23% 30% 29%
249% 365% 367% 419% 455% 603% 749%
1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
0.98% 1.04% 1.13% 1.29% 1.15% 1.08% 1.03%
44.59 97.62 51.67 65.12 72.26 108.74 53.36
109.86 146.94
6,152 6,221
- -
2,461 2,617
3,691 3,604
66.16 74.08 79.53 79.56 80.71 83 84
346 371 353 357 377 387
351 360 346 334 260 260
117 127
5,200 5,200
731 579
700 700
52 52
3,717 3,869
186 193
64 66 64 56 53 51 51
4,242 4,300
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
2,767 2,728 2,964 2,919 2,607 2,484 2,293
26 26 26 26 26 26 26
39 39 39 39 39 39 39
14 14 14 14 14 14 14
980 980 980 980 980 980 980
95 95 95 95 95 95 95
90 90 90 90 90 90 90
26 26 26 26 39 39 39
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
5,094 5,715 6,692 6,700 7,223 6,042 6,074
3,851 3,371 4,152 4,473 4,523 3,808 3,784
1 - 1 2 23 1 2
461 1,425 1,614 1,448 1,930 1,416 1,062
257 260 264 262 362 342 344
718 1,685 1,878 1,710 2,292 1,758 1,406
(220) 321 504 172 240 155 143
- - - - - - -
2 ### 2 ### 58 58 61
25,883 27,263 28,605 29,063 30,534 30,662 31,484
1,294
1,294
58 61 64 67 72 75 74
5% 6% 4% 31% 15% 3% 4%
14% 11% 14% 15% 18% 18% 16%
14% 23% 12% 19% 17% 19% 18%
82% 97% 72% 49% 47% 60% 55%
49% 37% 17% 19% 13% 16% 18%
2,378 1,380 1,342 458 1,415 128 818
25,881 27,261 28,603 29,061 30,477 30,605 31,423
10% 5% 5% 2% 5% 0% 3%
8% 9% 8% 7% 5% 6% 4%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5% 4% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3%
726% 820% 628% 591% 616% 627% 626%
-1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1%
0.99% 0.95% 0.92% 0.90% 1.19% 1.12% 1.09%
50.83 83.60 44.34 70.06 60.44 68.20 64.72
26 26 26 26 26 ### 26
39 39 39 39 39 ### 39
14 14 14 14 14 30 30
980 980 980 980 980 ### 980
95 83 83 83 83 ### 83
90 90 63 63 63 ### 63
38 38 38 38 38
39 39 27 27 27 27 27
- - - -
- -
121.85 117.39
- - - - - 175 179
325 331
200 203
445 440 374 389 413 396 330
478 443 446 456 480 490 361
410 437 304 306 312 305 305
1,257 1,410 1,412 1,628 1,948 1,775 1,720
1,338 1,504 1,508 1,724 2,050 1,895 1,848
1,171 1,316 1,320 1,508 1,794 1,658 1,617
- - - - - - -
#REF!
###
(402)
31,715
53 41 59 60 84 122 90
2 ### - - - 2 0
2 2 - - - 2 0
822 692 926 949 1,229 1,733 1,784
347 378 373 401 403 394 402
1,169 1,070 1,299 1,350 1,632 2,127 2,186
120 151 144 150 118 106 81
- (88) 32 58 122
656 578 726 735 1,014 1,494 1,506
7% -7% 7% 8% 9% 8% 12%
1,294 ###
1,294 1,294
33%
323 323 323 323 323 ### 323
4.00
76 78 80 78 81 86 87
8% 5% 4% 6% 7%
13% 12% 15% 14% 11% 8% 15%
12% 9% 20% 22% 15% 17% 18%
57% 62% 84% 76% 98% 84% 76%
16% 18% 22% 19% 18% 12% 12%
83 (128) 6 (183) (111)
31,506 31,378 31,384 31,201 31,090 31,707 32,024
0% 0% 0% -1% -0.36% 1.0%
4% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 85%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 90%
5% 3% 4% 4% 4%
578% 617% 698% 770% 739% 647% 20%
1% 1% 1% 1% 0.44% 0% 2%
1.10% 1.20% 1.19% 1.29% 1.30% 1.24% 1.27%
44.71 34.24 72.68 79.02 54.72 60.90 64.05
7.50
5.17
2.34
16%
26%
2.688 1.267 -
2.688 1.267 0%
1.430 1.504 1.599 1.422 1.365 1.642 1.650
0.863 1.006 1.035 0.860 0.915 0.990 0.999
0.567 0.498 0.564 0.563 0.450 0.652 0.651
0.863 1.003 1.013 0.860 0.915 0.976 0.999
0.454 0.492 0.505 0.427 0.510 0.512 0.544
0.409 0.511 0.508 0.432 0.405 0.464 0.455
0.567 0.504 0.557 0.586 0.526 0.594 0.651
0.175 0.118 0.195 0.215 0.206 0.154 0.198
0.393 0.386 0.362 0.371 0.321 0.440 0.452
1.430 1.507 1.570 1.446 1.441 1.570 1.650
0.628 0.610 0.700 0.642 0.716 0.666 0.743
0.802 0.896 0.870 0.804 0.725 0.904 0.907
55%
-94.46 89.13 82.13 -23.30 92.86 28.19 48.61
7,791 8,640 9,526 8,774 8,673 10,253 10,178
4,692 5,617 6,065 5,180 5,549 6,077 6,284
4,597 5,706 6,147 5,157 5,642 6,105 6,332
8 (21) 66 (55) (78) 1 54
3,186 2,955 3,313 3,672 3,110 4,148 3,792
3,194 2,934 3,379 3,617 3,031 4,148 3,846
88 91 92 95 96 98 99
402 422 438 438 441 453 464
342 362 378 380 390 390 400
60 ### 60 58 51 63 64
6,841 7,245 7,560 7,600 7,800 7,800 8,000
944 999 1,043 1,048 1,076 1,076 1,103
500 ### 500 400 400 400 400
68 72 76 152 156 156 160
3%
5,329 5,673 5,942 6,000 6,168 6,168 6,337
266 284 297 300 308 308 317
64 65 65 68 70 65 60
5,629 5,889 5,991 6,429 6,737 6,364 5,911
20 20 20 20
92 92 90 91
44 44 43 44
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
2 2 2 2
88 88 86 87
26 ### 26 26 26 26 26
39 ### 39 39 39 39 39
30 ### 30 30 30 30 30
980 ### 980 980 980 980 980
83 ### 83 83 83 83 83
63 ### 63 63 63 63 63
38 38 38 38 38 38 38
27 27 27 27 27 27 27
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
107.85 105.00 96.14 88.05 85.16
108 105 96 88 85 86 81
129 126 115 113 110 111 106
11,384 11,416 10,633 10,689 10,602 10,844 10,478
- - - - - - -
0 2 (3) 87 66 43 39
1,865 2,279 2,649 2,579 2,652 3,114 3,476
403 469 450 452 452 472 508
2,267 2,747 3,099 3,031 3,104 3,586 3,985
89 125 (41) 19 47 49 (39)
186 400
1,511 1,669 2,097 2,014 2,276 2,692 2,767
1,940 2,587
- ### - - 1,940 - -
40% 50%
323 ### 323 323 323 323 323
6.00 8.00
91 96 103 109 116 118 127
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
15% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
433 435 438 51 52 52 52
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
1.28% 1.50% 1.45% 1.47% 1.48% 1.50% 1.64%
60.60 56.40 49.68 48.74 54.75 61.24 51.84
7.89 8.23 - - - - -
5.78 6.44
2.12 1.79
15% 16%
27% 28%
20 20 20 20 20 ### 20 ###
92 92 90 91 92 ### 90 91
44 44 43 44 44 44 43 44
7.5 7.5 7.5 8 7.5 ### 7.5 ###
5.5 5.5 5.5 6 5.5 ### 5.5 ###
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
88 88 86 87 88 88 86 87
- - - 0 - - - -
- - - 0 - - - -
73 82 79 75 71 65 62 60
98 107 104 100 96 90 87 85
10,080 11,399 10,789 9,838 9,615 9,088 8,746 8,649
19,363 - - 0 - - - -
12,044
23 - - 68 67 65 67 65
5,227 5,281 5,384 5,436 5,505 5,540 6,034 5,540
59 59 62 - - ### - -
5,309 5,339 5,446 5,503 5,572 5,605 6,101 5,605
3234 2,910
- 2,587 - 0 - 3,234 - ###
1 50%
323 323 323 323 323 ### 323 ###
10 9.00
135 135 144 154 162 162 174
1% 1% 1% 0 1% 1% 1% 1%
5% 5% 5% 0 5% 5% 5% 5%
30% 30% 30% 0 30% 30% 30% 30%
52 53 53 53 54 54 54 54
1% 1% 1% 0 1% 1% 1% 1%
2% 2% 2% 0 2% 2% 2% 2%
1.64% 0.90% 1.19% 2.90% 1.64% 1.63% 1.63% 1.63%
81.01 75.69 43.53 51 66.35 69.72 50.67 54.75
- - - 0 - - - -
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 ###
92 92 91 91 92 92 90 91 ###
44 44 44 44 44 44 43 44 44
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8 ###
5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6 ###
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
75 88 87 87 88 88 86 87 87
26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 ###
39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 ###
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 ###
980 980 980 980 980 980 980 980 ###
71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71
51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 ###
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
58 60 61 62 63 63 64 64 65
83 85 86 87 88 88 89 89 90
8,530 8,823 9,016 9,212 9,411 9,505 9,709 9,806 10,015
- - - - - - - - -
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4,332 4,308 4,358 4,346 4,752 4,843 5,058 5,150 5,220
557 552 546 541 331 330 165 165 165
4,890 4,860 4,904 4,886 5,083 5,173 5,223 5,315 5,385
0.97 0.97 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29
65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 ###
5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 ###
- - - - - - - - -
5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
7,039 7,109 7,179 7,250 7,429 7,529 7,632 7,736 7,843
72,717 76,232 79,787 80,100 84,080 88,053 92,201 92,545 96,826
65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
13,251 13,320 13,391 13,462 13,641 13,741 13,843 13,948 14,055
3,234 - - - 3,881 -
- 2,910 - - - 3,234 - - 1
50% 50% 2
323 323 323 323 323 323 323 323 ###
10.00 12.00 -
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 0
55 55 55 55 56 56 56 57 57
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
1.63% 1.63% 1.63% 1.63% 1.00% 1.00% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75
- - - - - - - - -
PKR mn
Dispatches (mn
Net Sales
COGS
Gross profit
EBITDA
PBT
PAT
EPS (PKR)
Source: Global Research
52.60 55.33
13.08 13.22 13.42 13.56 13.76 13.90 14.11
2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
20 20 20 20 20 20 20
91 91 91 91 91 91 91
44 44 44 44 44 44 44
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
87 87 87 87 87 87 87
26 26 26 26 26 26 26
39 39 39 39 39 39 39
30 30 30 30 30 30 30
980 980 980 980 980 980 980
71 71 71 71 71 71 71
51 51 51 51 51 51 51
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
65 66 66 67 67 68 68
90 91 91 92 92 93 93
10,116 10,330 10,434 10,654 10,760 10,986 11,096
- - - - - - -
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5,315 5,387 5,485 5,559 5,660 5,737 5,841
166 166 166 166 166 166 167
5,480 5,552 5,651 5,725 5,826 5,903 6,007
1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29
65 65 65 65 65 65 65
5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540
- - - - - - -
5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
7,952 8,063 8,177 8,293 8,411 8,532 8,655
101,186 105,606 105,255 109,818 114,463 119,172 119,116
65 65 65 65 65 65 65
14,164 14,275 14,389 14,505 14,623 14,744 14,867
- - 4,851 - - - 4,851
2 3 4 5 6 7 7
3 4 5 6 7 8 8
323 323 323 323 323 323 323
- - 15.00 - - - 15.00
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
57 57 58 58 58 59 59
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75
- - - - - - -
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 20 20 20
91 91 91 91
44 44 44 44
8 8 8 8
6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2
87 87 87 87
26 26 26 26 26 ### 26 26
39 39 39 39 39 ### 39 39
30 30 30 30 30 ### 30 30
980 980 980 980 980 ### 980 980
71 71 71 71
51 51 51 51
- - - -
- - - -
69 69 70 70
94 94 95 95
11,327 11,441 11,678 11,795
- - - -
0 0 0 0 -
5,920 6,027 6,109 6,220 (1,071)
167 167 167 167 167
6,087 6,194 6,276 6,387 (903)
- - - - -
65 65 65 65 65 ### 65
5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 ### 5,540
- - - - - #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 5,605 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- - - - - - -
- - - - - #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
8,781 8,909 9,040 9,174 672 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
123,978 128,928 133,946 134,205 124,846 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- - - 4,851
7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
323 323 323 323
- - - 15.00
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
0 0 0 0 0 0
59 59 60 60 60 61
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
54.75 54.75 54.75 54.75 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
132 134
646 652
591 597
55 55
11,812 11,941
2,008 2,030 - -
591 597
177 179
9,036 9,135
58 58
7,643 7,758
26 26 26
39 39 39
30 30 30
980 980 980
660 Coal Project
Cap Utilization
Production mn tons
Sales mn tons
COD Feb-14
Cap Utilization 0.80 ### 0.85
Production mn tons 0.72 0.72 0.77
Sales mn tons 0.706 0.706 0.750
50 MW Wind Farm
Iraqi Market Cement Consumption
Lafarge FY14 19
Tasluja Plant 2.3 Iran Exports 9 (63% of Irani Exports)
Bazian 2.5 Net 10
Karbala 1.8
6.6
Total Installed Cap 32.5
Workable Capacity 11 2012
Additonal Capacity Expe 11.3 2013/2014 SinceGap
Supply 2003inthe Iraqi cement
souther Iraq sector has been
split into two categories. On one side are the
Total 22.3
former state-run plants and on the other side are
new private operators. Lafarge acquired two
Expected Demand 2015 35
plants post-2003 and took over the running of a
third in 2008. Other private operators include the
Al-Rawi group, which operates three plants and
Current Demand 24 MASS Global, which commissioned its first kiln
Supply 16 at Sulaimaniah in 2010 and a second in 2011.
Also under private ownership is the Sinjar
Cement Plant, owned by a consortium of family
members.
Hammam Al Ali
Mosul
-I
Hammam Al Ali
Mosul
- II
Private Group Sinjar Sinjar
Southern Cement Najaf Najaf
State Co. Al Kufa Kufa
Muthana Muthana
Samawa Samawa
Lafarge Bazian
(Leased from Gov.) Sulaimaniah Sulaimaniah
Bazian Sulaimaniah
Kerbala Kerbala
Irani Market
Capacity Mar-00
90 90 90 90
9,770 10,167 10,579 11,009
488 508 529 550
11 11 10 10
1,194 1,243 1,117 1,162
60 62 56 58
The country is currently producing around 16 million tonnes of Iran exports 8 10Mt/yr of cement
cement and consuming around 24m tonnes, with around 80 per
almost half of Iraq's total cement c
cent of its cement imports coming from Iran. Frances Lafarge
is the market leader in Iraq with 50 percent market share, and consumes 19Mt/yr of cement. Iran ex
there are three or four Chinese cement manufacturers, in cement to Iraq between 21 March 20
addition to from three to four (sic) government-owned cement 2014
plants.
1957/1973/19
Jan-00 Dry Oct-08 Oct-08 - -
86
0.143
0.135
Iran exports 8 10Mt/yr of cement to Iraq, supplying
almost half of Iraq's total cement consumption. Iraq
onsumes 19Mt/yr of cement. Iran exported over 8Mt of
ement to Iraq between 21 March 2014 and 21 August
2014
Theoretical capacity
3200t/day 1.0Mt/yr
1000t/day 0.5Mt/yr
6400t/day 2.0Mt/yr
6400t/day 2.0Mt/yr
600t/day 0.2Mt/yr
2500t/day 0.8Mt/yr
3200t/day 1.0Mt/yr
700t/day 0.23Mt/yr
1200t/day 0.38Mt/yr
6400t/day 2.0Mt/yr
700t/day 0.23Mt/yr
6000t/day 1.9Mt/yr
5500t/day 1.76Mt/yr
550t/day 0.18Mt/yr
6400t/day 2.0Mt/yr
7200t/day 2.3Mt/yr
7000t/day 2.2Mt/yr
6400t/day 2.0Mt/yr
16,500t/day 5.3Mt/yr
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 1QFY17 2QFY17
3QFY17 4QFY17
Revenue Assumptions:
Factor Comment
Cement Sales Price Increase by 0.5% every quarter after from FY16
Dispatches Growth Increase by 4%YoY for local
Decrease by 4%YoY for exports
Current Retention PKR 345/bag assumed for FY15
Cost Assumptions
Coal Increase by 5% from FY17
FO Decreasing by 23% for FY16 and increase by 2% going forward
Gas Price 23% increase by this year then flat
WHR-KHI starting from 4QFY15
WHR-PEZU starting from 1QFY16
WHR-KHI
WHR MN kwh 40
Savings PKR mn 318
After TAX 213
per share 0.66
WHR PEZU
WHR MN kwh 40
Savings PKR mn 320
After TAX 214
per share 0.66
6.6 0.696
FY12 A FY13 E FY14 F FY15 F FY16 F
Revenue 33,323 37,810 43,083 43,822 43,152
Gross Profit 12,721 16,756 18,690 20,078 22,303
EPS (PKR) 20.97 30.15 35.08 39.12 42.95
DPS (PKR) 6.00 6.00 8.00 8.00 10.00
Price 410
Shares 323
3mo ended 3mo ended
PKR mn
Jun13 Jun14 Mar14 Jun14
Net Sales
10,076 11,628 15 11,880 11,628 (2)
COGS
5,567 6,628 19 6,698 6,628 (1)
Gross profit
4,509 5,000 11 5,182 5,000 (4)
S&D
655 824 26 1,012 824 (19)
Other Income
39 345 792 217 345 59
Fin. Cost
(39) 6 n.m 8 6 (25)
PBT
3,516 4,060 15 3,910 4,060 4
Taxation
749 901 20 886 901 2
PAT
2,767 3,159 14 3,024 3,159 4
EPS (PKR)
8.56 9.78 9.36 9.78
DPS (PKR)
8.00 9.00 8.00 9.00
Source: Global Research
Jun13 Jun14
76 34 (55) 34 136
44% 43%
Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05
Liability
-Accelerated tax depreciation
Asset
-Provision for gratuity and other benefits
-Other
-Unabsorbed tax losses
Dispatches
- Local
- Export
Accounting Depreciation
-Local
-Export
Tax Depreciation
-Local
-Exports
Taxable income/(loss)
Tax Loss carry forward (1,760)
Financial Reporting
Property, Plant and Equipment
Opening Balance
Additions/(Deletions)
Transfers in/(out)
Depreciation Charge
Ending Balance
Tax Reporting
EBITDA
Depreciation
Finance Cost
Taxable Income
Tax
Net Income
Other Income
Dividend Income
Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Jul-05 Jul-05
3,941
3,681 3,514
1,457 1,388
1,0
1Q'10 2Q'10 3Q'10 4Q'10 1Q'11 2Q'11 3Q'11 4Q'11 1Q'12 2Q'12 3Q'12E
YoY
29%
19%
50%
-1%
91%
-29%
109%
337%
89%
89%
C
Retention Pric
8.00
7.50
7.00 100%
6.50
6.00
80%
5.50
5.00
Capacity
4.50 Capacity Utilization
60%
4.00
3.50
3.00
40%
2.50
2.00
1.50 20%
1.00
0.50
- 0%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 A FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E
Pkr Cement Prices/bag
400
350
300
250
150
100
50
-
Lucky Cement
Current Price Pkr 71.17
Market Capitalization Pkr Mn 23,014.60
Shares Mn 323
FY97 FY98
Production Mn tons
Cement "" 0.20 0.56
Pezu "" 0.20 0.56
Karachi "" -
""
Balance Sheet
Cash Pkr mn 45 15
Short Term Investments "" - ###
Trade Debts "" 37 -
Inventory "" 34 63
Stores and Spares "" 131 114
Other Current Assets "" 119 233
Total Current Assets "" 366 425
Net PPE "" 3,992 3,904
Long Term Investments "" 200 ###
Other Long Term Assets "" 63 54
Total Long Term Assets "" 4,255 4,158
Total Assets "" 4,621 4,583
Trade Creditors and Other Payabes "" 261 178
Accrued Interest "" - ###
Dividends Payable "" - ###
Short-term borrowings "" 135 221
Taxation "" 2 7
Current portion of long term loans "" 13 115
Total Current Liablilities "" 411 521
Long Term Loans "" 603 518
Deferred Taxation "" - ###
Other Liabilities "" 195 251
Total Long Term Liabilites "" 798 769
Total Liabilities "" 1,209 1,290
Paid up "" 2,450 ###
Retained earnings/reserves "" 963 844
Total Equity "" 3,413 3,294
Total Liabilities + Equity "" 4,622 4,584
Income Statement
Gross Sales Pkr mn 638 1,791
Local "" 638 1,791
Exports "" - ###
Sales Tax ""
CED "" 244 776
Discount ""
SED ""
Net Sales "" 393 1,010
Local "" 393 1,010
Exports "" - -
Cost of Sales "" 311 944
Fuel and Power "" 198 554
Depreciation "" 38 128
Packaging Material "" 54 123
Raw Material "" 4 20
Stores and Spares "" - 31
Insurance "" 7 27
Salaries Wages and Benefits "" 15 58
Other "" 8 27
Gross Profit "" 82 66
Distribution Cost "" 4 11
Staff Salaries and Benefits "" 3 4
Export Logistics and Other Charges "" - ###
Depreciation "" 0 -
Communication "" 1 3
Other "" 0 4
Administrative Expenses "" 31 47
Staff Salaries and Benefits "" 6 14
Communication "" 5 3
Other "" 20 33
EBIT "" 47 8
Depreciation and amortization " " 43 136
EBITDA " " 90 144
Finance cost " " 71 124
Other Income " " (1) -
Other charges " " - ###
WPPF " "
PBT " " (25) (116)
Taxes " " (2) (5)
Current year " "
Prior year ""
deferred ""
PAT "" (27) (121)
Effective Tax Rate -8% -5%
EPS (0.10) (0.46)
Dividends declared
Dividend deducted from equity
Dividend Payout
Common Shares( Mn) 245 ###
Weighted shares 263 ###
DPS
Adjusted DPS
BVPS 14 13
Market Capitalization
Div yield
Payout
Cashflows
Net Income (27) (121)
D&A 43 136
Working Capital (102)
Cash flow from operations (87)
Interest expense 81
Capex (48)
FCFF (54)
Net debt 103
Interest expense (81)
Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE) (32)
Dividends
Equity Issued
Net Cash Flow (32)
Starting cash 45
Ending cash 45 13
-
Current Price 73
EPS Pkr (0.10) (0.46)
EBITDA/ton Mn Pkr/ton 0 268
EV 18,552 18,685
EV/EBITDA 206.13 129.40
Debt/EBITDA 8.34 5.91
PER
Retention Price/ton 1,873
COGS/ton 1,296 1,751
Opex/ton 146 107
Finance Cost/ton 54 94
EV/ton 34,650
EBITDA margin 23% 14%
ROA -0.6% -2.6%
ROE -0.8% -3.7%
D/E 22.0% 25.9%
Long term debt to equity 17.7% 15.7%
Net Proift Margin -6.9% -12.0%
Gross Profit Margin 21% 7%
P/BV 5.62 5.82
Cost of Sales
Pezu
FO utilization 100% 100%
Coal utilization 0% 0%
RDF utilization
Karachi
FO utilization 0% 0%
Coal utilization 0% 0%
RDF utilization
Coal
Energy Content Kcal/kg 6,500
FOB USD/ton -
Freight " " -
Ex- Karachi Cost Pkr/ton -
Import duty " " -
Sales Tax " " -
Transportation " "
Pezu -
Karachi
Effective Price " "
Pezu -
Karachi
Cost/ton of clinker " "
Pezu #DIV/0! -
Karachi
FO
Energy Content Kcal/kg 9,750 ###
Ex- ARL (Pezu) Pkr/ton
Sales Tax
Transportation Pkr/ton
Karachi
Gas Utilization
FO utilization
Gas/unit MMBTU/KWh
Gas/cost Pkr/KWh
Sales
Cement Prices Pkr/bag 178
Pkr/ton 3,560
Staff Pkr Mn 6 14
staff % of administrative cost 30%
Communication Pkr Mn 5 3
communication % of admn cost 6%
Other Pkr Mn 20 33
other % of admn cost 70%
14%
13 24 52 49 53 40 1,000 141
24 52 49 53 40 1,000 141 2,065
(1) (1) 1 2 - 6 2 1
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
- - -
14 16 19 21 18 20 24 104
35% 12% 19% 11% -14% 11% 20% 333%
- - - - - - - 70
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 67%
38 41 50 45 39 46 61 107
-19% 8% 22% -10% -13% 18% 33% 75%
11 14 18 19 19 25 29 62
29% 34% 36% 42% 49% 54% 48% 58%
2 4 4 3 3 4 4 4
5% 10% 8% 7% 8% 9% 7% 4%
27 27 32 26 20 21 32 45
71% 66% 64% 58% 51% 46% 52% 42%
36 58 72 78 86 98 108 119
20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90% 100% 100% 100% 100% 85% 85% 85%
15% 15% 15%
110 95 ### 95 83 83 83 83
65% 65% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
35% 35% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
90 83 ### 83 63 63 63 63
65% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
35% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5 5 6 7 7 5 6 8
5% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2%
``
FY15E FY16E 1Q'05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06
10% 10%
7.19 7.19
2.30 2.30
4.89 4.89
1,232 1,250
1,446 1,577
131 141
6.69% 6.49%
30% 30% 21%
2,884 3,111 - - - - -
2,778 3,001 34 34 35 44 23 25
466 474 34 34 35 44 23 25
2,438 1,814 - - - - - -
2,586 1,878 - - - - - -
2,270 1,751 - - - - - -
0% 0%
85% 80%
15% 20%
2,599 1,887
2,436 1,769 - - - - - -
812 590 - - - - - -
18,677 13,560 - - - - - -
17,053 12,381 - - - - - -
2,586 1,878 - - - - - -
2,361 1,714 - - - - - -
62,420 63,678 - - - - - -
5,762 5,878 - - - - - -
466 474 34 34 35 44 23 25
525 539 51 49 51 64 34 35
399 409 - - - - - -
63 63
95% 95%
5% 5%
554 573
27,053 26,337 - - - - - -
2.13% -2.64% - Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518
7,050 7,550 - - - - - -
353 378 - - - - - -
5,507 5,933 - - - - - -
275 297 - - - - - -
112 116
16% 16%
1,919 1,744
6,333 6,656
6,333 6,656
102 107
62 62
5,119 5,989 6 5 6 7 6 6
17% 17% -100% -17% 20% 17% -14% 0%
4,863 5,689 - - - - - -
480 583 13 15 20 13 16 23
22% 22% #REF! 15% 33% -35% 23% 44%
168 204 - - - 29 - -
35% 35% 0% 0% 0% 223% 0% 0%
10 12 - - - 4 - -
2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 31% 0% 0%
297 361 - - - 32 - -
62% 62% 0% 0% 0% 246% 0% 0%
-
2,049 2,693 3,078 2,363 3,292 3,789 3,652 3,548
329
329
1.25 - -
25%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
172% 0% 101% 0% 73% 0% 0% 0%
- - - - - - - -
26 28 771 707 719 763 1,087 1,182
26 28 426 404 422 438 409 423
- - 345 303 297 325 678 759
- - 426 364 380 427 706 792
- - 197 173 176 203 644 723
- - - - - - 5,098 5,721
- - - - - - 4,654 5,223
- - - - - - 706 792
- - - - - - 644 723
90 90 90 90 90 90
65% 65% 65% 65% 90% 90%
35% 35% 35% 35% 10% 10%
- - - - - - - -
Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
1,755 1,765
3,089 2,962
3,089 2,962
61 61
51 49
20 48 22 27 25 37 32 31
-13% 140% -54% 23% -7% 48% -14% -3%
- 62 - - - - - -
0% 129% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
- 4 - - - - - -
0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
- 45 - - - - - -
0% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
52 122
30 38 49 35 36 46 44 114
1,294
1,294
- - - - - 4.00 - -
28%
- - - - - - - -
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 4% 4% 4% 6% 0% 0%
0% 0% 6% 5% 4% 8% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
- - - - - - - -
1,409 1,806 2,365 2,779 1,754 1,506 1,447 1,572
460 453 469 421 424 436 454 462
949 1,353 1,896 2,358 1,330 1,070 992 1,110
993 1,441 1,982 2,477 1,399 1,126 1,041 1,166
907 1,316 1,809 2,262 1,277 1,028 951 1,065
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
95 95 95 ### 95 95 95 95
65% 65% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
35% 35% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
90 90 90 ### 90 90 90 90
90% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
- - - - - - 3,344 2,900
Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 Err:518 #DIV/0! -13.28%
- - - - - - 5,051 4,284
- - - - - - 253 214
16%
500
2%
- - - 3,871 2,529 2,597 1,501 -
- - - 6,802 4,182 3,893 2,267 -
- - - 340 209 195 113 -
30 38 49 35 36 46 44 114
-3% 27% 29% -29% 3% 28% -4% 159%
- - - - - - - -
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
- - - - - - - -
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
- - - - - - - -
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
13% 4% 3% 0% 3% 0% 0% 9%
1,294 1,294
1,294 1,294
- 4.00 4.00
80 78 81 86 90 90
41% 33%
- - - - - - 2,417 2,441
1,795 1,961 1,987 1,902 2,161 2,128 2,417 2,441
541 506 421 436 457 441 507 507
1,254 1,455 1,566 1,466 1,704 1,687 1,910 1,934
1,309 1,520 1,638 1,525 1,765 1,760 1,980 2,005
1,196 1,388 1,495 1,392 1,611 1,607 1,808 1,831
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0%
95 83 83 ### 83 83 83 83
85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
90 90 63 ### 63 63 63 63
95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
68 77 59 99 56 59 62 65
-40% 13% -23% 68% -43%
- - - - - 22 23
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 35%
- - - - - 1 1
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2%
- - - - - 38 40
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% 62%
0% -5% 0% 0% 2% 4% 2% 2%
5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14
59 59 2 2 2 2 2 2
33,707 34,380 34,837 35,360 35,890 36,429 36,975 37,530
43,315 44,281 45,303 44,946 46,418 47,533 48,325 48,024
3,616 3,598 3,629 3,719 3,972 3,993 3,831 3,923
102 98 93 89 86 82 78 75
- - - - - - - -
6,256 5,943 5,646 5,364 5,096 4,841 4,599 4,369
- - - - - - - -
162 161 162 166 178 179 171 176
10,137 9,800 9,531 9,339 9,331 9,095 8,679 8,542
402 400 403 413 441 444 426 436
1,914 2,009 2,110 2,215 2,326 2,442 2,564 2,693
460 458 462 474 506 508 488 500
2,776 2,867 2,975 3,102 3,273 3,394 3,478 3,628
12,912 12,668 12,506 12,441 12,605 12,489 12,157 12,170
3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234
27,169 28,380 29,563 29,271 30,580 31,811 32,933 32,620
30,403 31,614 32,797 32,505 33,814 35,045 36,167 35,854
43,315 44,281 45,303 44,946 46,418 47,533 48,325 48,024
1,540 1,491
1,540 1,491
4.76 4.61
30% 30%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83
85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
68 72 75 79 83 87 92 96
24 25 26 28 29 31 32 34
35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
42 44 47 49 51 54 57 60
62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
38,093 38,664 39,051 39,441 39,835 40,234 40,435 40,637
49,514 50,858 52,448 52,261 53,679 55,156 56,518 56,397
4,190 4,289 4,517 4,545 4,646 4,748 4,808 4,907
72 69 67 64 62 59 57 55
- - - - - - - -
4,151 3,943 3,746 3,559 3,381 3,212 3,051 2,898
- - - - - - - -
188 192 202 203 208 212 215 220
8,600 8,493 8,532 8,371 8,296 8,231 8,132 8,080
466 477 502 505 516 528 534 545
2,827 2,969 3,117 3,273 3,436 3,608 3,789 3,978
534 546 575 579 592 605 612 625
3,826 3,991 4,194 4,357 4,544 4,740 4,935 5,148
12,427 12,484 12,726 12,727 12,841 12,972 13,067 13,229
3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234 3,234
33,853 35,140 36,488 36,300 37,604 38,950 40,217 39,935
37,087 38,374 39,722 39,534 40,838 42,184 43,451 43,169
49,514 50,858 52,448 52,261 53,679 55,156 56,518 56,397
1,446 1,577
1,446 1,577
4.47 4.88
30% 30%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
85% 85% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 20% 20%
83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83
85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 50
35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
63 66 69 72 76 80 84 88
62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
3QFY16 4QFY16
108.01 109.36
1.25% 1.25%
8.00% 8.00%
10% 10%
1,938 1,938
1.94 1.94
1,744 1,744
1.74 1.74
872 872
0% 0%
0.87 0.87
872 872
0.87 0.87
0% 0%
50% 50%
50% 50%
90% 90%
1.80 1.80
0.57 0.57
1.22 1.22
68% 68%
1.74 1.74
0.87 0.87
0.87 0.87
103% 103%
4,939 5,962
1,335 1,344
1,669 1,680
7,788 7,839
1,324 1,351
17,055 18,176
40,838 41,043
2 2
40,840 41,045
57,896 59,220
5,007 5,039
53 51
- -
2,754 2,616
- -
224 226
8,037 7,932
556 560
4,177 4,386
637 642
5,371 5,588
13,408 13,519
3,234 3,234
41,254 42,467
44,488 45,701
57,896 59,220
3,534 3,401
12,555 12,628
6,715 6,715
5,840 5,913
926 926
436 436
67 67
11,126 11,199
5,286 5,286
5,840 5,913
7,836 7,968
5,471 5,563
329 331
945 959
472 479
66 66
66 66
290 304
198 199
3,290 3,231
1,525 1,586
31 32
1,449 1,507
8 8
8 8
31 32
149 157
52 55
3 3
92 97
1,615 1,488
476 481
2,091 1,969
54 52
1 1
97 89
1,465 1,348
147 135
- -
- -
1,319 1,213
10% 10%
4.08 3.75
1,528
323 323
4.73
138 141
30%
1,319 1,213
476 481
69 147
1,864 1,840
35 34
(679) (685)
1,219 1,189
(129) (133)
(35) (34)
1,055 1,023
1,055 1,023
3,884 4,939
4,939 5,962
- -
4.08 3.75
1,199 1,129
22,149 20,994
11 11
1.69 1.73
6,379 6,421
4,493 4,568
960 999
28 27
12,699 12,036
19% 18%
2.3% 2.0%
3.0% 2.7%
7.9% 7.4%
11.9% 10.8%
30% 29%
4,493 4,568
3,136 3,189
189 190
542 550
271 275
38 38
38 38
166 174
113 114
70% 70%
4% 4%
12% 12%
6% 6%
0.84% 0.83%
0.84% 0.83%
3.70% 3.82%
3% 2%
3,136 3,189
3,136 3,189
498 499
2,638 2,691
2,827 2,884
2,449 2,497
0% 0%
100% 100%
0% 0%
80% 80%
20% 20%
900,000 900,000
900,000 900,000
900,000 900,000
6,500 6,500
137 138
27 28
17,756 18,110
2,841 2,898
2,663 2,716
888 905
20,420 20,826
18,644 19,015
2,827 2,884
2,582 2,633
9,750 9,750
72,370 72,732
9,982 10,032
1,447 1,455
63,836 64,155
5,893 5,922
57,397 57,684
101% 101%
9,184 9,229
66,581 66,914
1,148 1,154
58,545 58,838
5,404 5,431
5,790 5,819
92% 92%
3,500 3,500
7,458 7,606
1,918 1,956
498 499
567 567
430 431
83 83
85% 85%
15% 15%
63 63
95% 95%
5% 5%
2,145 2,145
0.22 0.22
13.46 13.53
0.01 0.01
6.09 6.09
609 609
6.83 6.83
420 420
8,400 8,400
6,715 6,715
7,700 7,700
385 385
6,061 6,061
303 303
16% 16%
500 500
2% 2%
5,286 5,286
6,061 6,061
303 303
5,840 5,913
6,696 6,780
6,696 6,780
108 109
62 62
50% 50%
50% 50%
1,525 1,586
4% 4%
1,449 1,507
95% 95%
149 157
52 55
35% 35%
3 3
2% 2%
92 97
62% 62%
1.00% 1.00%
1.50% 1.50%
6.00% 6.00%
12% 12%
15% 15%
70% 70%
2% 2%
0.50% 0.50%
1% 1%
45% 45%
1.5% 1.5%
50% 50%
5% 5%
2% 2%
6% 6%
FY98 FY99 FY00
Inflation rate 5.7% 3.6% 4.4%
PKR/bag 178 203 210
Growth of prices 14% 4%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08
3.5% 3.1% 4.6% 9.3% 7.9% 7.8% 12.0% 20.8%
202 226 211 201 212 268 217 245
-4% 12% -7% -5% 6% 26% -19% 13%
Other Charges
13%
Inflation rate
Growth of prices
FY09 FY10
11.5% 11.7%
352 286
43% -19%
Before After
Revenue per Bag 308
COGS per Bag 180
EBITDA per Bag 142
Delivery Cost per Bag 53
PAT per Bag 86
Jun May
Local 336,983.00 311,297.03
Export 223,763.00 212,279.66
0.99
0.54
Apr
335,176.18 0.98
213,316.52 0.65
TP 307
CY14 PAT 11,784
EPS 36.48