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Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 1 OF 5

TOPIC : 7.0 PROBABILITY

SUBTOPIC : 7.1 Events and Probability

LEARNING
OUTCOMES :
understand the concept of experiments, outcomes,
sample spaces, events and random selections.
find the probability of an event.

vs

Before a kickstart for a semifinal


Malaysia Cup Football match between
Pahang and JDT, both of the captains
will choose either Head or Tail when
the referee throw a coin. What is the
chance for Pahang getting a Head?

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

DEFINITION

Experiment a process when performed, will result


in one and only one of many
observations

Outcomes the observations made from the


experiment

Sample space the collection of all the outcomes

Event a collection of one or more of the


outcomes of an experiment

Compound a collection of more than one outcome


event for an experiment

EXPERIMENT OUTCOMES SAMPLE SPACE


Tossing a coin once

Tossing a coin twice

Rolling a dice one

Taking a driving test

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 1

List the sample space when tossing a coin twice.

Solution
Tree Diagram

Table

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Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space.

Intersection of Two Events

The intersection of A and B represents the collection of all


outcomes that are common to both A and B.

Union of Two Events

Formula: P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)

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Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Complementary Events

The complement of event A, denoted by A is the event that


includes all the outcomes for an experiment that are not in
A.

Mutually Exclusive Events

Event that cannot occur together called mutually exclusive.


For two mutually exclusive events A and B,
A B {} P A B 0
P( A B) P( A) P( B)

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Exhaustive Events

Outcomes are exhaustive if they combine to be the entire


sample space or equivalently, if that at least one of the
outcomes must occur whenever the experiments performed.
If E1 E2 ... En S , then the events E1 , E2 ,..., En are
referred to as exhaustive events.

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

PROBABILITY

Probability is a measurement of the likelihood that an event


will occur. In any random experiment, there is always an
uncertainty as to whether a particular event will or will not
occur.

number of posibble outcomesin A


P( A)
total number of outcomesin the sample space
n( A)
n( S )

There are four basic probability laws.

(a) The probability of an event A always lies in the range 0


to 1, that is if A is an event,
0 < P(A) < 1

(b) The probability of an event A that cannot occur is 0.


It is called an impossible event.
P(A) = 0

(c) The probability of an event A is a certain to occur is 1.


It is called sure event.
P(A) = 1

(d) If A is a complement of event A.


P(A ) = 1P(A)

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

A glass jar contains 6 red marbles, 5 green marbles, 8 blue


marbles and 3 yellow marbles. If a single marble is chosen
at random from the jar, what is the probability of choosing
a red marble?

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Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

On a single toss of a dice, find the probability of obtaining


(a) 4
(b) an odd number
(c) an even number
(d) a number less than 4
(e) a number greater than 4
(f) an odd or an even number

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

In a junior school class of 28 pupils, 7 are in both sport


team and the school band. There are 16 pupils involved in
sports teams and 10 in the school band. Find the probability
that a pupil is chosen at random
(a) is only in the school band
(b) is in either a sports team or the school band
(c) is in neither a sports team nor the school band

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 5:

In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls.


On a unit test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a
student is chosen at random from the class, what is the
probability of choosing a girl or an A students?

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 6:

Abu has a set of eight cards numbered 1 to 8. A card is


drawn randomly from the set of cards. By using a Venn
diagram, find the probability that the number drawn is
(a) 8
(b) not 8

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 7:

There are 12 bulbs in a box, 3 of which are defective. 1 bulb


are selected at randomly from the box and replaced.
Another bulb is taken from the box.
(a) Draw a tree diagram
(b) Hence, find the probability if
(i) both bulb are defective.
(ii) at least one bulb defective
(iii) both bulb are good.

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 8:

One student feels that the probability of him getting a


1
grade D in statistics test is and the probability of him
8
1
failing in that test is . What is the probability of him
16
getting a better grade than D?

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 2 OF 5

SUBTOPIC : 7.1 Events and Probability

LEARNING OUTCOMES :
understand mutually exclusive event.
apply additional rule in probability.

Union of Two Events

P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)

Mutually Exclusive Event

P( A B) P( A) P( B)

Example 1:

If P(X) = 0.4, P(Y) = 0.2 and P(X Y) = 0.1, find P(X Y).

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

If P(A) 0.3 , P(B) 0.4 and P( A B) 0.1 , find


(a) P( A B)
(b) P( A B)'
(c) P( A B' )
(d) P( A' B)

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

A total of 765 persons have multiple jobs in a city. Of them,


260 are female, 289 are married and 172 are female and
married. Find the probability that a randomly selected
person with multiple job is female or married.

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

There are 100 matriculation students of whom 20 applied


for UPM, 15 applied for UTM and eight applied both UPM
and UTM for their first degree. If a student is chosen at
random, find the probability that
(a) the student applied for UTM
(b) the student applied both UPM and UTM
(c) the student applied for either UPM or UTM

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 3 OF 5

LEARNING OUTCOMES :
apply the additional rule of probability

Mutually Exclusive Events

When A and B are mutually exclusive event, P(A B) 0.


Hence, P(A B) P(A) P(B) .

Example 1:

If C and D are two events where P(C) = 0.1, P(D) = 0.2 and
P(C D) = 0.3.
(a) Determine whether C and D are two mutually exclusive
events.
(b) Find P( C' ) and P( C' D' ).

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

Five graduates of equal ability apply for a vacancy. Only one


applicant will be successful. The applicants are Adam,
Bukhari, Cindy, Devi and Emelda. Find the probability that
(a) Emelda will be successful
(b) Adam or Cindy will be successful

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

A bag contains 5 blue balls, 6 pink balls and 8 green balls. A


ball is drawn randomly from the bag. Find the probability
that the ball selected is
(a) pink
(b) pink or blue

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

The following table gives a two-way classification, based on


gender and employment status of a group of youths in a city.

Employed Unemployed
Male 240 80
Female 250 30

(a) If a youth is selected at random from the group of


youths, find the probability that the youth is
i) unemployed
ii) employed
iii) a female

(b) Are the events employed and unemployed


mutually exclusive?

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Probability of Three Events

S
A B

PA B C P( A) P( B) P(C ) P( A B) P( A C ) P( B C ) P( A B C)

S
A B

Mutually exclusive events

PA B C P( A) P( B) P(C )

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 5:

A population of 100 women is divided into three categories;


working women (A), degree holders (B) and married women
(C), as shown in the Venn diagram below.

S
A B

A woman is selected at random. Find the probability that:


(a) she is a working woman
(b) she is a working woman and with degree
(c) she is not married but working and with degree.

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 6:

In a group of 75 students, 16 students are taking


Statistics, Chemistry and Psychology; 24 are taking
Statistics and Chemistry; 30 are taking Statistics and
Psychology, 22 are taking Chemistry and Psychology; 6 are
taking only Statistics; 9 are taking only Chemistry and 5
students are taking only Psychology.

(a) What is the probability that a student is not taking


any of the three subjects?
(b) What is the probability that a student is taking
Chemistry?

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 4 OF 5

LEARNING OUTCOMES :
understand conditional probability.
apply the multiplication rules in probability.

Will you come for the club activity if the


day is raining???

Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability that an events will


occur given that another event has already occurred.

If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability


of A given B is written as:

P(A B)
P AB
P(B) ; P(B) 0

And read as
the probability of A given B has already occurred

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 1:

1 1
The events A and B are such that P(A) = , P(B) = and
3 4
1
P(A B) =
2
Find :
(a) P( A B)
(b) P( A B' )
(c) P( A B' )

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

1 1
If A and B are two events with P(A) = , P(B) = , P(A B)
4 3
5
= . Find
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(a) P(A B)
(b) P( B A)
(c) P( A B' )
(d) the probability that exactly one of A and B will occur

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

In a college, 12% of the students are left-handed, 15% of


the students wear glasses and 3% are both left-handed and
wear glasses.
(a) Given that a student wears glasses, find the probability
that the student is left-handed.
(b) What is the probability that a left-handed student also
wears glasses?

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

TWO WAY TABLE/ CONTIGENCY TABLE

Example 4:

Car Models Male Female


Alza 55 45
Myvi 30 26
Axia 23 21

An employee is selected at random from a company. Find the


probability that the employee is

(a) a female
(b) a male given the employee owned an Alza
(c) a female who owned a Myvi
(d) a male who owned an Axia or a female who owned an
Alza.

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 5: (use TWO WAY TABLE)

A total of 120 students of a private college ride 3 types of


motorcycles; Yamaha, Suzuki and Honda to campus. From
the total, 75 riders are males. Out of 50 students who rides
Yamaha, 30 are females. There are 30 males who rides
Suzuki and 5 females who rides Honda. If a student who
rides a motorcycle to campus is chosen at random, find the
probability that the student

(a) rides a Yamaha or a Suzuki


(b) is female or rides a Suzuki
(c) rides a Suzuki given the student is female
(d) is male who rides a Suzuki or a female who rides a
Yamaha

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

EXERCISES

1. A box contains eight milk chocolates and seven plain


chocolates. Jannah chooses a chocolate at random and
eats it. She then chooses another chocolate. Draw a
three diagram, hence find the probability that:
(a) the first chocolate is a milk chocolate and the second
is a plain chocolate
(b) the two chocolates are different ( one plain and one
milk)
(c) the milk chocolate, given that plain chocolate is chosen
first.
(d) the plain chocolate, if the first chocolate is milk
chocolate

2. Thirty Mathematics professors out of 100 who are


examined were found to be over weight (W). Ten of
them had high blood pressure (H). Only four of the
professors who were not over weight had high blood
pressure. Find the probability that a Mathematics
professor will not have high blood pressure if he is not
overweight.

3. A card is chosen at random from a set of twenty-five


cards numbers from 1 to 25. What is the probability
that the card chosen is a multiple of 4, given that it is
greater than 15?

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 5 OF 5

LEARNING OUTCOMES :
apply the multiplication rule in probability

Independent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence


of one does not affect the probability of the occurrence
of the other.
From Conditional Event;

P( A B) P( A B)
P( A | B) P( B | A)
P( B) P( A)

P( A B) P( A | B) P( B)
P ( B | A) P ( A)

If events A and B are independent, it means that the


outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the
other, then

P( A | B) P( A) and P( B | A) P( B)

So, we arrive at the and rule for the independent events

P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B )
P( A B) P ( A) P ( B )

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 1:

D and E are two independent events such that P(D) = 0.3


and P(E) = 0.4 . Find
(a) P(D E)
(b) P(D E)

Solution

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Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

Two events C and D are independent. P(C) = 0.4 and P(D) =


0.25. Calculate P(C D).

Solution

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Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

Probabilities for event A and B are P(A)=0.4 and P(B)=0.33


respectively. Find P(A B) ,
(a) if A and B are mutually exclusive
(b) if A and B are independent

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

There are 60 students in the sixth form of a certain school.


Mathematics is studied by 27 of them, Biology by 20 and 22
students study neither Mathematics nor Biology.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected student
studies both Mathematics and Biology.
(b) Find the probability that a randomly selected student
studies Mathematics but does not study Biology.

A student is selected at random,

(c) Determine whether the event studying mathematics is


statistically independent of the event not studying
Biology.

Solution

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Mathematics QA 026
Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Problem Solving

Example 5:

The probability of a worker to have job satisfaction is 0.85


if he/she is given a satisfactory bonus and 0.45 if not given
a satisfactory bonus. Its found that 90% of the workers
are given a satisfactory bonus. By using a tree diagram,
find the probability of
(a) a worker has job satisfaction
(b) a worker is not given a satisfactory bonus, given he has
job satisfaction.
(c) a worker is not given a satisfactory bonus, given he
does not have job satisfaction.

Solution

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