00 mi piace00 non mi piace

16 visualizzazioni38 pagineprobability

May 25, 2017

© © All Rights Reserved

PDF, TXT o leggi online da Scribd

probability

© All Rights Reserved

16 visualizzazioni

00 mi piace00 non mi piace

probability

© All Rights Reserved

Sei sulla pagina 1di 38

LECTURE 1 OF 5

LEARNING

OUTCOMES :

understand the concept of experiments, outcomes,

sample spaces, events and random selections.

find the probability of an event.

vs

Malaysia Cup Football match between

Pahang and JDT, both of the captains

will choose either Head or Tail when

the referee throw a coin. What is the

chance for Pahang getting a Head?

1

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

DEFINITION

in one and only one of many

observations

experiment

outcomes of an experiment

event for an experiment

Tossing a coin once

2

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 1

Solution

Tree Diagram

Table

3

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

outcomes that are common to both A and B.

Formula: P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)

4

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Complementary Events

includes all the outcomes for an experiment that are not in

A.

For two mutually exclusive events A and B,

A B {} P A B 0

P( A B) P( A) P( B)

5

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Exhaustive Events

sample space or equivalently, if that at least one of the

outcomes must occur whenever the experiments performed.

If E1 E2 ... En S , then the events E1 , E2 ,..., En are

referred to as exhaustive events.

6

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

PROBABILITY

will occur. In any random experiment, there is always an

uncertainty as to whether a particular event will or will not

occur.

P( A)

total number of outcomesin the sample space

n( A)

n( S )

to 1, that is if A is an event,

0 < P(A) < 1

It is called an impossible event.

P(A) = 0

It is called sure event.

P(A) = 1

P(A ) = 1P(A)

7

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

marbles and 3 yellow marbles. If a single marble is chosen

at random from the jar, what is the probability of choosing

a red marble?

8

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

(a) 4

(b) an odd number

(c) an even number

(d) a number less than 4

(e) a number greater than 4

(f) an odd or an even number

9

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

team and the school band. There are 16 pupils involved in

sports teams and 10 in the school band. Find the probability

that a pupil is chosen at random

(a) is only in the school band

(b) is in either a sports team or the school band

(c) is in neither a sports team nor the school band

10

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 5:

On a unit test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a

student is chosen at random from the class, what is the

probability of choosing a girl or an A students?

11

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 6:

drawn randomly from the set of cards. By using a Venn

diagram, find the probability that the number drawn is

(a) 8

(b) not 8

12

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 7:

are selected at randomly from the box and replaced.

Another bulb is taken from the box.

(a) Draw a tree diagram

(b) Hence, find the probability if

(i) both bulb are defective.

(ii) at least one bulb defective

(iii) both bulb are good.

13

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 8:

1

grade D in statistics test is and the probability of him

8

1

failing in that test is . What is the probability of him

16

getting a better grade than D?

14

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 2 OF 5

LEARNING OUTCOMES :

understand mutually exclusive event.

apply additional rule in probability.

P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)

P( A B) P( A) P( B)

Example 1:

If P(X) = 0.4, P(Y) = 0.2 and P(X Y) = 0.1, find P(X Y).

Solution

15

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

(a) P( A B)

(b) P( A B)'

(c) P( A B' )

(d) P( A' B)

Solution

16

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

260 are female, 289 are married and 172 are female and

married. Find the probability that a randomly selected

person with multiple job is female or married.

Solution

17

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

for UPM, 15 applied for UTM and eight applied both UPM

and UTM for their first degree. If a student is chosen at

random, find the probability that

(a) the student applied for UTM

(b) the student applied both UPM and UTM

(c) the student applied for either UPM or UTM

Solution

18

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 3 OF 5

LEARNING OUTCOMES :

apply the additional rule of probability

Hence, P(A B) P(A) P(B) .

Example 1:

If C and D are two events where P(C) = 0.1, P(D) = 0.2 and

P(C D) = 0.3.

(a) Determine whether C and D are two mutually exclusive

events.

(b) Find P( C' ) and P( C' D' ).

Solution

19

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

applicant will be successful. The applicants are Adam,

Bukhari, Cindy, Devi and Emelda. Find the probability that

(a) Emelda will be successful

(b) Adam or Cindy will be successful

Solution

20

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

ball is drawn randomly from the bag. Find the probability

that the ball selected is

(a) pink

(b) pink or blue

Solution

21

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

gender and employment status of a group of youths in a city.

Employed Unemployed

Male 240 80

Female 250 30

youths, find the probability that the youth is

i) unemployed

ii) employed

iii) a female

mutually exclusive?

22

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

S

A B

PA B C P( A) P( B) P(C ) P( A B) P( A C ) P( B C ) P( A B C)

S

A B

PA B C P( A) P( B) P(C )

23

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 5:

working women (A), degree holders (B) and married women

(C), as shown in the Venn diagram below.

S

A B

(a) she is a working woman

(b) she is a working woman and with degree

(c) she is not married but working and with degree.

24

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 6:

Statistics, Chemistry and Psychology; 24 are taking

Statistics and Chemistry; 30 are taking Statistics and

Psychology, 22 are taking Chemistry and Psychology; 6 are

taking only Statistics; 9 are taking only Chemistry and 5

students are taking only Psychology.

any of the three subjects?

(b) What is the probability that a student is taking

Chemistry?

25

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 4 OF 5

LEARNING OUTCOMES :

understand conditional probability.

apply the multiplication rules in probability.

day is raining???

Conditional Probability

occur given that another event has already occurred.

of A given B is written as:

P(A B)

P AB

P(B) ; P(B) 0

And read as

the probability of A given B has already occurred

26

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 1:

1 1

The events A and B are such that P(A) = , P(B) = and

3 4

1

P(A B) =

2

Find :

(a) P( A B)

(b) P( A B' )

(c) P( A B' )

Solution

27

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

1 1

If A and B are two events with P(A) = , P(B) = , P(A B)

4 3

5

= . Find

12

(a) P(A B)

(b) P( B A)

(c) P( A B' )

(d) the probability that exactly one of A and B will occur

Solution

28

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

the students wear glasses and 3% are both left-handed and

wear glasses.

(a) Given that a student wears glasses, find the probability

that the student is left-handed.

(b) What is the probability that a left-handed student also

wears glasses?

Solution

29

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

Alza 55 45

Myvi 30 26

Axia 23 21

probability that the employee is

(a) a female

(b) a male given the employee owned an Alza

(c) a female who owned a Myvi

(d) a male who owned an Axia or a female who owned an

Alza.

30

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

motorcycles; Yamaha, Suzuki and Honda to campus. From

the total, 75 riders are males. Out of 50 students who rides

Yamaha, 30 are females. There are 30 males who rides

Suzuki and 5 females who rides Honda. If a student who

rides a motorcycle to campus is chosen at random, find the

probability that the student

(b) is female or rides a Suzuki

(c) rides a Suzuki given the student is female

(d) is male who rides a Suzuki or a female who rides a

Yamaha

31

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

EXERCISES

chocolates. Jannah chooses a chocolate at random and

eats it. She then chooses another chocolate. Draw a

three diagram, hence find the probability that:

(a) the first chocolate is a milk chocolate and the second

is a plain chocolate

(b) the two chocolates are different ( one plain and one

milk)

(c) the milk chocolate, given that plain chocolate is chosen

first.

(d) the plain chocolate, if the first chocolate is milk

chocolate

examined were found to be over weight (W). Ten of

them had high blood pressure (H). Only four of the

professors who were not over weight had high blood

pressure. Find the probability that a Mathematics

professor will not have high blood pressure if he is not

overweight.

cards numbers from 1 to 25. What is the probability

that the card chosen is a multiple of 4, given that it is

greater than 15?

32

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

LECTURE 5 OF 5

LEARNING OUTCOMES :

apply the multiplication rule in probability

Independent Events

of one does not affect the probability of the occurrence

of the other.

From Conditional Event;

P( A B) P( A B)

P( A | B) P( B | A)

P( B) P( A)

P( A B) P( A | B) P( B)

P ( B | A) P ( A)

outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the

other, then

P( A | B) P( A) and P( B | A) P( B)

P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B )

P( A B) P ( A) P ( B )

33

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 1:

and P(E) = 0.4 . Find

(a) P(D E)

(b) P(D E)

Solution

34

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 2:

0.25. Calculate P(C D).

Solution

35

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 3:

respectively. Find P(A B) ,

(a) if A and B are mutually exclusive

(b) if A and B are independent

Solution

36

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Example 4:

Mathematics is studied by 27 of them, Biology by 20 and 22

students study neither Mathematics nor Biology.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected student

studies both Mathematics and Biology.

(b) Find the probability that a randomly selected student

studies Mathematics but does not study Biology.

statistically independent of the event not studying

Biology.

Solution

37

Mathematics QA 026

Topic 7: Probability Lesson Plan

Problem Solving

Example 5:

if he/she is given a satisfactory bonus and 0.45 if not given

a satisfactory bonus. Its found that 90% of the workers

are given a satisfactory bonus. By using a tree diagram,

find the probability of

(a) a worker has job satisfaction

(b) a worker is not given a satisfactory bonus, given he has

job satisfaction.

(c) a worker is not given a satisfactory bonus, given he

does not have job satisfaction.

Solution

38

## Molto più che documenti.

Scopri tutto ciò che Scribd ha da offrire, inclusi libri e audiolibri dei maggiori editori.

Annulla in qualsiasi momento.