Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Media Contacts:
Lucha Ramey Randy Escamilla
St. Mary’s University San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
(210) 431-4377 or (210) 416-8399 (210) 913-3999
lramey@stmarytx.edu randye@sahcc.org

San Antonio & Nation NOT Headed for

Double Dip Recession
SAN ANTONIO – In a mid-year economic update given this morning at a SABÉR
Research Institute event, two local economists presented data that shows that neither
San Antonio nor the nation is going into a double dip recession as indicated by some
economists.

The findings were presented by Steve Nivin, Ph.D., SABÉR chief economist and
director, and Keith Phillips, Ph.D., senior economist and policy advisor for the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas-San Antonio Branch. Nivin and Phillips updated their economic
projections and findings first presented back in January.

Today Phillips re-emphasized that the national recession is likely over, although
government debt problems in Europe highlight that markets are still fragile.

“A negative yield curve has preceded every recession since the mid-1950s and it is
currently quite positive, indicating a very low chance of recession over the next four
quarters,” said Phillips. “We may see some slower growth throughout the rest of the year
and into 2011, with the average forecast in the Blue Chip Survey predicting between 3
and 3.5 percent growth for the nation.”

Phillips calculated the probability of recession, based on his analysis of the yield spread
(the difference between the 10 year and one year interest rates on government
securities). In his presentation, he showed that they indicate a very low probability of a
double-dip recession over the next fours quarters.
Back in January, Phillips projected about 1 percent employment growth for Texas, but
now says that seems to be too low. He is now projecting between 2.5 and 3.0 percent for
2010, and 1.5 to 2.5 percent for 2011.

Nivin, who is also an assistant professor of economics at St. Mary’s University, projected
in January an employment growth for San Antonio for the year between 2 and 2.5
percent. Nivin said today that he thinks that still may be attainable. San Antonio’s
employment growth has been about 1.1 percent, on an annualized basis, and Texas was
2.9 percent.

“While San Antonio’s employment growth has lagged behind the State and other major
metropolitan areas (Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin),” said Nivin, “it is likely due to the
fact that our economy did not experience as large of a decline during the recession
resulting in a smaller rate of growth during the recovery. However, I believe my
projections in January are still attainable, and I do not foresee the San Antonio economy
going into a second recession.”

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About The SABÉR Research Institute:

The SABÉR Research Institute is an economic development think-tank dedicated to
researching regional economies and their development. The Institute is committed to
providing expert counsel and research to organizations such as city government and
businesses, and is an alliance between St. Mary’s University and the San Antonio
Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. To learn more about SABÉR, please visit
www.saberinstitute.org.

About the San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce:

Founded in 1929, the San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce is the first and one
of the largest Hispanic Chambers in the country. The SAHCC is the principle resource
and advocate for Hispanic businesses and Hispanics in business. The SAHCC’s
objective is to inspire and foster Hispanic leadership and entrepreneurship in the San
Antonio community. The SAHCC is the first Chamber in San Antonio to be accredited by
the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and is the only Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
accredited in the United States. For more information, visit www.sahcc.org.

About St. Mary’s University:

St. Mary’s University, as a Catholic Marianist University, fosters the formation of people
in faith and educates leaders for the common good through community service,
integrated liberal arts and professional education, and academic excellence. St. Mary’s
University is ranked fourth in the West Region for quality and value in the “Great
Schools, Great Prices” category of the U.S. News & World Report’s 2010 edition of
“America’s Best Colleges.” To learn more about St. Mary's, visit www.stmarytx.edu.