24 Peter Schwartz

quantum theory were the result of all three. Today, we are again ripe for
a major leap in physical theory.
Among the lessons of the twentieth century in physics is that either
relativity is right or quantum theory is right but not both. We have
recently discovered that the neutrino, whose denition is that it has
zero mass, now seems to have mass, however slight. It turns out that the
universe may be expanding at an accelerating rate rather than at a stable
or decelerating rate. Planetary solar systems seem to be common. Life
might have existed once on our nearest planetary neighbor. Anomalies
are cropping up all over. New tools are abundant from super computers
to new kinds of telescopes to scanning tunneling microscopes. The result
of all of these forces for change might merely be an incremental advance
in physics. Another scenario might be a more radical leap akin to rela-
tivity. Super string theory might be just such a leap, but there are other
competing theories that lead to other scenarios at the frontier of knowl-
edge. A similar set of arguments can be made for advances in biology and
chemistry.
Do these scientic scenarios lead, in turn, to technological sce-
narios? The current ideas and anomalies in physics do suggest what is
possible and what is not. For example, there is little reason to believe
in faster-than-light travel or instantaneous matter transportation. But
there are hints that communicating faster than light, nding life else-
where in the universe, or discovering the secret to antigravity might not
be impossible. While it requires a great leap of imagination to imagine
worlds of radical change where such advances are real, it is not plausible
to put meaningful time or probability parameters on such scenarios.
They are mainly useful only in guiding basic research at the frontier.
Looking ahead we can see important scientic and technological
scenarios based on all three kinds of uncertainty.
1. One of the most important economic uncertainties of our time is
whether the Internet will trigger a global wave of growth that will lift all
boats into prosperity or cause only a few to rise to the crest while most
remain in the trough. The wave may even prove to be only a ripple. The
technology is well known, but its application is quite uncertain.
2. Over the past twenty years advances in genetics and molecular biol-
ogy have revolutionized our understanding and capabilities of biological
systems. Our scientic understanding has leapt ahead. What we will able