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Should Malaysia look to Saudi Arabia or South Korea, or perhaps both?

Which county would Malaysia most likely be in 50 years The Republic of Korea
(South Korea) or the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia), or a combination of
both, or something altogether different?

In 2015, South Korea was the eleventh largest economy in the world (1.89%
share of the world economy) while Saudi Arabia was ranked 20 th (0.86%).
Malaysia was 33rd with 0.43% share.
While Saudi Arabia was not significantly distant from South Korea in terms of
economic size, the contributions towards the gross domes product (GDP) was
significantly different. In Saudi Arabia, the manufacturing sectors value add (as
a % of GDP) was 12.3% while high-technology exports contributed less than 1%
of the countrys manufactured exports. Total natural resources rents (as a % of
GDP) in Saudi Arabia was 41% in 2014. Although this was lower than the 52%
contribution in 2011, natural resources rents are the single biggest contributor to
the Saudi Arabian GDP. Within natural resources rents, oil rents in particular
formed the single biggest contributor to GDP at 39% in 2014, falling from 49% in
2011.
The value added from the manufacturing sector (towards GDP) in South Korea
was around 30% between 2011 and 2015, with high technology exports
constituting around a quarter of manufacturing exports. Unsurprisingly, South
Korea derives no revenue from natural resources or oil.
Malaysia currently is somewhere in between these two countries. In 2015,
Malaysias manufacturing sector value added was 23% of GDP with high
technology exports constituting 43% of total manufacturing exports. Natural
resource rents (as a % of GDP) fell from 11% in 2010 to 8% in 2014 while oil
rents (as a % of GDP) fell from 6% in 2010 to 4.8% in 2014.
Conventional wisdom argues that human capital development and innovation are
the source of long term economic growth which conventional wisdom also
believes is the most important objective for any state or society.
While it is difficult to measure innovation and human capital development,
accepted proxies indicate that South Korea (as expected) outperforms Saudi
Arabia and Malaysia in these areas. In 2014, South Korea had 6,899 researchers
and 1,241 technicians in R&D per million people, while Malaysia had 2,052
researchers and 212 technicians per million people, respectively. Interestingly, no
data was available in this indicator for Saudi Arabia.
South Korea invested 4.3% of its GDP in R&D in 2014, while Malaysia invested
1.2%. The total number of patent applications registered in Saudi Arabia from
2010 to 2014 was the lowest among the three countries. Malaysia had 34,600
during this period while South Korea had 27 times that applications in the same
period.
The Human Development Index (HDI) for Saudi Arabia and South Korea are
better that that of Malaysia. South Korea and Saudi Arabia are both in the very
high human development index level while Malaysia is in the high human
development category. South Korea is ranked 18 (index: 0.901) while Saudi
Arabia is ranked 38 (index: 0.847) in 2016. Malaysia meanwhile was placed 59
with an index of 0.789.
Conventional wisdom also suggests that political leadership has significant
implication on the nations long term prospects.
On 17 April 2017, South Korean prosecutors indicted ex-president Park Geun-hye
on corruption charges that could potentially send her to jail for life. She had been
impeached in December 2016 when the members of parliament voted by a huge
margin to impeach her over a corruption and cronyism scandal. Park Geun-hye
had become South Koreas first female president in a landslide victory in 2012.
South Koreas democracy and its institutions performed the required tasks as it
removed its president through a democratic process.
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy ruled by the Al Saud family. The
government bases its legitimacy on its interpretation of Sharia and the 1992
Basis Law. The Basic Law sets out the system of governance, rights of citizens
and powers and duties of the government. The law also provides that the Quran
and the Sunna of Prophet Muhammad serve as the countrys constitution.
What type of economy and which model of governance will Malaysia have in 50
years?

*all data from World Development Indicators

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