Kendall Miller

7th Period

Regression Project

The two data sets are comparing the number of physicians per 1,000 people in a country

and the number of deaths by malaria. I believed that there would be a correlation with this data

because physicians have the capability to provide medical care for those in need, therefore

slowing the spread of diseases like malaria. After graphing and finding a regression for these

data points, it can be said that though the regression is not the highest or most successful, there

is a direct correlation in their data. A majority of points represent the pattern of less physicians

per 1,000 people, more Malaria contributed deaths. The data also shows that in countries in

Africa, an increase of 1 physician per 1,000 people would reduce deaths by malaria by

239.99%. There were a few points that didnt follow this pattern, making a more successful

regression impossible. These countries had alternative reasons for infection with Malaria, like

proximity to other infected country. This would have altered the general shape of the data points

because the pattern would be slightly clearer. The data chosen is important because it shines a

light onto the necessity for physicians all over the world. The direct correlation between having

few doctors and many dead bodies from Malaria shows those deaths could be avoided like they

were in other countries, but there is a lack of medical personnel to accomplish it. Doctors &

future doctors would benefit from this information because it informs them where theyre

needed, and especially that they are needed. The function used to graph the correlation is a

best fit exponential function and accurately shows the grows and increase of Malaria deaths and

the decrease of physicians per 1,000 people.

The equation used for this regression is y~ab^{x} and it is an exponential function. This

type of function is appropriate for this data because the correlation of the data matches the

shape an exponential function makes, as a decrease in x causes an increase in y, and an

increase in x causes a decrease in y. The R^2 value of this regression is 0.174. This number is

very low, but there are some data points included in the graph that do not follow the common
Kendall Miller
7th Period

correlation, so these points throw off the R^2 value and make the correlation seem less than it

really is. The line made by the function makes a best fit line on the data points, and the value of

R^2 does not express its accuracy.

I believe that my conjecture is fairly accurate because access to medical care and

physicians increases the health of a population and in the case of malaria, those resources

would benefit the countries most vulnerable to the disease. Especially in Africa, even a slight

increase in physicians in the population would decrease the number of deaths caused by

malaria by more than 200%.That data was collected from the data points and that conjecture

seems accurate because of the severity of malaria in African countries. In terms of predicting

the future, this regression would not be very useful, as each point varies on the country. It could

predict the decrease of malaria deaths with the increase of physicians in a country, but that is

the extent of its prediction skills. Each country has a different set of circumstances and a

situation that makes it difficult for the regression to be reliable in predicting future outcomes.
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7th Period

This regression shines a light onto the importance of equal medical care in all countries,

as it shows that the lack of medical professionals holds a significant correlation to the large

amount of deaths by malaria in certain countries. In other countries, however, there are an

abundant amount of medical resources and absolutely no malaria related deaths per year. This

could be possible in every country, but its very difficult to eradicate malaria without the proper

care. The regression plotted and analyzed above is proof of the need for medical care in less

developed countries.