Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

BUND: (128.04)
BUND FUT 6% SEP0 (128.03, 128.09, 128.00, 128.04, +0.14) 130.5
129.93
HOURLY CHARTS
130.0

129.5
129.10
129.0

128.5
128.18
128.0

127.58 127.5

127.0
127.12
126.5

126.0

125.5

125.0

124.5

124.0

123.5

123.0

122.5

122.0

121.5
121.60
121.0
7 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

Contract currently back below the daily Medium Term Moving Average↓ (128.79 today) and currently below daily
Bollinger bottom (128.21 today): Resistance at 128.21 (see above), with next levels at 128.54/ .57 (reaction high
hourly/ daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at 128.79/ .82 (see above/ daily Long Term Moving
Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 129.01 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 129.08/ .12 (weekly envelope top/ modified daily
Standard Error band top): tough on 1st tests.
1st Support area at 127.92/ .90 (today’s low?/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of 127.85/ .79 (last week low/ daily
projection band bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 127.58/ .56 (neckline daily Triple Tops/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

127.92/ .90 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 128.21 (see above)

127.85/ .79 (last week low/ see above) 128.54/ .57 (see above/ daily ST MA↓)

127.58/ .56 (see above/ weekly envelope bottom) 128.79/ .82 (daily MT MA↓/ daily LT MA↓)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

BOBL : (119.8500)

BOBL FUT 6% SEP0 (119.840, 119.870, 119.780, 119.850, +0.150) 121.5

121.1600

120.7800 121.0

120.5
120.5000

120.0

119.8300

119.6100 119.5

119.0

118.5

118.0

117.5

117.0

116.5

116.0

12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

Retesting 119.8300 (see graph): 1st Support area at 119.7700 (today’s low?), with next levels at 119.7450/
.7350 (daily envelope bottom/ daily Bollinger bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.7100/ .7050 (gap hourly/ modified daily Standard Error band bottom), ahead of
119.6500 (last week low) and 119.6100 (June 21 low): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 119.8800 (today’s high?), with next levels at 120.0700/ .1000 (daily Short Term Moving
Average↓/ reaction high hourly), ahead of 120.1500/ .1550 (breakdown daily/ modified daily Alpha Beta Trend
top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 120.2050 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↓ + weekly Short Term Moving Aver-
age↓), ahead of 120.2650 (daily envelope top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

119.7700 (see above) 119.8800 (see above)

119.7450/ .7350 (daily envelope bottom/ daily Bol-
120.0700/ .1000 (daily ST MA↓/ see above)
linger bottom)

119.7050/ .6500 (see above/ last week low) 120.1500/ .1550 (breakdown daily/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

SCHATZE (109.2800)
SCHATZ 6% SEP0 (109.280, 109.320, 109.270, 109.280, +0.035)
109.80
109.7250
109.75
109.70
109.65
109.5600 109.60
109.55
109.50
109.45
109.40
109.35
109.3600 109.30
109.2700
109.25
109.20
109.15
109.10
109.1000
109.05
109.00
108.95
108.90
108.85
108.80
108.8100
108.75
108.70
108.65
108.60
108.55
108.50
108.45
108.40
108.35
108.30
108.25
108.20
108.15
108.10
108.1250 108.05
108.00
7 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 May June July

Currently back below 109.3600 (see graph).

Resistance area at 109.3200 (today’s high?), with next levels at 109.3350 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of
109.3500/ .3650 (reaction highs hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 109.4050/ .4250 (daily/ weekly envelope tops): tough on 1st attempts.

1st support area at 109.2700 (today’s low?), with next levels at 109.2550/ .2500 (daily envelope bottom/ gap
hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 109.2100 (reaction lows hourly), ahead of 109.1900/ .1850 (break-up hourly/ modified
daily Alpha Beta trend bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

109.2700 (see above) 109.3200 (see above)

109.2550/ .2500 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) 109.3500/ .3650 (see above)

109.2100/ .1900 (see above/ break-up hourly) 109.4050/ .4250 (daily/ weekly envelope tops)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

US T-NOTE : (122.23+) Currently below 122.29+ (see graph)

10YR TNotes SEP0 (122.73437500, 122.75000000, 122.71875000, 122.73437500, +0.01562500)

124.0
123.24

123.5
123.01

123.0
122.29+

122.5

122.0

121.5
121.14+

121.0

120.5

120.0

119.5

119.09
119.0

118.26
118.5

25 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 June July

Drop from new high puts the contract currently below 122.29+ (see graph) and currently below the daily chan-
nel bottom off low (122.27 today).
Support at 122.20+/ .18+ (daily Medium Moving Average↑/ today’s + current reaction low off high?): ideal area
to stay above to keep current short term mood on Treasuries.
Failure to hold would see next levels at 122.12/ .11+ (break-up hourly/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of
122.09+/ .03 (potential off 122.29+): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance at 122.27/ .29+ (see above), with next levels at 122.31/ 123.00 (breakdown hourly/ daily envelope
top), ahead of 123.02 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 123.06/ .09 (reaction highs hourly), ahead of 123.16+ (daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st
attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

122.20+/ .18+ (see above) 122.27/ .29+ (see above)

122.12/ .11+ (break-up hourly/ daily envelope bot-

122.31/ 123.00 (see above/ daily envelope top)
tom)

123.02/ .09 (daily ST MA↓/ see above)

122.09+/ .03 (see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

UK GILT: drop from new high reapproached 120.10 (see graph)

LONG GILT SEP0 (120.32, 120.46, 120.11, 120.44, +0.10)

122.0
121.73
121.51
121.5

121.0

120.5

120.10 120.0
119.60
119.5

119.0

118.5
118.50
118.0
117.95
117.5

117.0

116.5

116.0

115.5

115.0

114.5

114.0

113.5

113.0

112.5
22 24 1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 25
2010 J J

Drop from new high reapproached 120.10 and retesting inverted channel bottom off 117. 95(see graph: equiva-
lent one on daily charts has its bottom at 120.54 today).
Support at 120.11/ .10 (last week low/ July 15 low), ahead of 120.00/ 119.96 (daily projection band bottom/
23.6% 114.25 to 121.73), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 119.77 (medium term reaction low hourly), ahead of 119.61/ .53 (daily Starc bottom/
medium term reaction low hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 120.88 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at 121.00/ .04 (daily Medium
Term Moving Average→/ breakdown daily)), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 121.17 (breakdown hourly), ahead of 121.44 (reaction high hourly) and 121.60 (daily
Bollinger top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

120.11/ .10 (see above) 120.88 (see above)

120.00/ 119.96 (see above/ 23.6% 114.25 to

121.00/ .04 (see above/ breakdown daily)
121.73)

119.77/ .61 (see above/ daily Starc bottom) 121.17/ .44 (breakdown hourly/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5
 Monday, July 26, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Bonds

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 6