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Aid Session
2
What is JDCC?
3
Meet your tutor: Emily Sycz
4
Agenda
5
PROCESS DESIGN AND FACILITY LAYOUT
CHAPTER 6
6
Process Planning
Process
Group of related tasks with specific inputs & outputs
Process design
tasks to be done & how they are coordinated among functions,
people, & organizations
Process strategy
an organizations overall approach for physically producing
goods and services
Process planning
converts designs into workable instructions for manufacture or
delivery
7
Process Strategy
Vertical integration
extent to which firm will produce inputs and control outputs of
each stage of production process
Capital intensity
mix of capital (i.e., equipment, automation) and labor
resources used in production process
Process flexibility
ease with which resources can be adjusted in response to
changes in demand, technology, products or services, and
resource availability
Customer involvement
role of customer in production process
8
Outsourcing
Cost Speed
Capacity Reliability
Quality Expertise
9
Facility Layout
Types:
Process
Product
Fixed Position
Hybrid
10
Goals
Eliminate bottlenecks
Facilitate communication
Increase capacity
Promote quality
Use space and labour efficiently
11
Process Selection
Projects/Job Shop
one-of-a-kind production of a product to customer order
Batch production
process many different jobs at the same time in groups or batches
Repetitive(Assembly line) production
produce large volumes of a standard product for a mass market
Continuous production
used for very-high volume commodity products
12
Job Shop
Characteristics:
Low quantity of high variety customized goods or services
Intermittent process (work shifts from one small job to the
next)
High flexibility of equipment and skilled workers
13
Batch Production
Characteristics:
Moderate volume/quantity and a variety of
goods/services
Process is still intermittent
Lower skill level of workers due to less variety
14
Repetitive Production
Characteristics:
Higher quantities of more standardized goods or services
Only slight flexibility of equipment and low skilled workers
Production and assembly lines (machine paced or worker paced)
15
Continuous Process
Characteristics:
Very high volume of highly standardized outputs
Almost no variety in output, no need for machine flexibility
Low skilled workers
Product usually cannot be counted
16
Characteristic Table
17
Product-Process Matrix
18
Product Process Matrix
Appliance repair
Inefficient
Emergency room
Bakery,
Theatre
Automobiles,
Carwash
19
Important Notes
20
Automation
21
Fixed Automation
Most rigid
Concept comes from Ford in the 1900s
Uses high-cost, specialized equipment for a fixed sequence of
operations
Advantages: low unit cost and high volume
Limitations: minimal variety, high cost to change
22
Programmable Automation
23
Programmable Continued
Numerically Controlled
Best used in cases where parts are processed frequently
in small batches, and mistakes are costly
There is a high costs and high level of skill
Robot
Mechanical arm,
power supply,
controller
24
Flexible Automation
25
Flexible Continued
26
Layout
27
Basic Layout Types
Product layout
arranges production resources linearly according to the
progressive steps
by which a product is made
Process layout
arranges production resources together according
to similarity of function
28
Product(Line) Layout
Assembly line
Standardized processing operations to achieve
smooth, rapid, high-volume flow
Standardized product/service, demand is stable,
divide work into series of tasks
Can arrange entire layout to correspond to
product requirements
29
Example
In
Out
30
Product
Advantages
Lower cost per unit
High degree of utilization
Minimal WIP inventory
Easier training/supervision
Simplified accounting
Disadvantages
Inflexible
Higher equipment cost
Dull, repetitive jobs
Stoppage at any point ties up whole operation
31
Process (Functional) Layout
32
Process Layout
33
Process (Functional) Layout
Advantages: Flexibility
Less vulnerable to shutdown
(from mechanical failure or absenteeism)
Lower maintenance costs
(and reduced investment in spare parts)
Disadvantages: Inefficiency
Scheduling can be difficult
(= low equipment utilization rates)
Setup, material handling, and
labour and costs can be high
Increased work-in-process inventory
34
Cellular Layout
35
Cellular Layout
Advantages:
Faster processing time
Increased capacity
Less material handling
Less WIP inventory
Reduced set-up times
Disadvantages:
Conversion to cellular is a massive undertaking
Methods: visual inspection, examination of design and
production data, production flow sequence and routing
analysis
36
Other Layout Types
Warehouse layouts
Important consideration: frequency of order
Retail layouts
Important consideration: traffic flow
Office layouts
Objective: optimize the physical transfer of information or
paperwork
New trend: create an image of openness (low rise partitions)
37
Fixed Position Layouts
Layout in which the product or project remains stationary,
and workers, materials, and equipment are moved as
needed.
Line Balancing:
Assigning tasks to workstations in such a way that
the workstations have approximately equal time
requirements
7-39
How To?
40
Line Balancing Procedure
41
Cycle Time
42
Line Balancing Formulas
OT OT
Output capacity CT
CT D
OT operating time per day D desired output rate
CT cycle time
t
N min
CT
N min Theoretical minimum number of work stations
t sum of the task times
43
Precedence Diagram
Tool used in line balancing to display elemental tasks
and sequence requirements
c d e
0.7 min. 0.5 min. 0.2 min.
44
Cycle Time/Workstations
45
Line Balancing Rules
Idle time
Percentage of idle time 100
N actual Cycle time
Efficiency 100 - Percentage of idle time
46
Example
Demand = 100 tables per day. Each day has 420 minutes
47
Desired Cycle Time = 420/100
4.2 minutes per unit
48
Precedence Network
2 1 1
1.4
A B G
H
C D E F
3.25 1.2 .5 1
49
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2
B=1
C = 3.25
D = 1.2
E = 0.5
F=1
G=1
H = 1.4
50
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1
C = 3.25
D = 1.2
E = 0.5
F=1
G=1
H = 1.4
51
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25
D = 1.2
E = 0.5
F=1
G=1
H = 1.4
52
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2
E = 0.5
F=1
G=1
H = 1.4
53
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5
F=1
G=1
H = 1.4
54
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5 2 4.2 C C 0.95
F=1
G=1
H = 1.4
55
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5 2 4.2 C C 0.95
F=1 0.95 3.25 0.95
G=1
H = 1.4
56
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5 2 4.2 C C 0.95
F=1 0.95 3.25 0.95
G=1 3 4.2 D D 3 1.2
H = 1.4
57
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5 2 4.2 C C 0.95
F=1 0.95 3.25 0.95
G=1 3 4.2 D D 3 1.2
H = 1.4 3 E E 2.5 1.7
58
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5 2 4.2 C C 0.95
F=1 0.95 3.25 0.95
G=1 3 4.2 D D 3 1.2
H = 1.4 3 E E 2.5 1.7
2.5 F F 1.5 2.7
59
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5 2 4.2 C C 0.95
F=1 0.95 3.25 0.95
G=1 3 4.2 D D 3 1.2
H = 1.4 3 E E 2.5 1.7
2.5 F F 1.5 2.7
1.5 H H 0.1 4.1 0.1
60
Example
A B G
H
CT = 4.2 min/unit
C D E F
Task Station Time Eligible Choose Revised Station Station
Time Remaining Tasks Task Time Idle
Remaining Time
A=2 1 4.2 A, C A 2.2
B=1 2.2 C,B B 1.2
C = 3.25 1.2 G G 0.2
D = 1.2 0.2 4.0 0.2
E = 0.5 2 4.2 C C 0.95
F=1 0.95 3.25 0.95
G=1 3 4.2 D D 3 1.2
H = 1.4 3 E E 2.5 1.7
2.5 F F 1.5 2.7
1.5 H H 0.1 4.1 0.1
11.35 1.25
61
Efficiency
62
Variable Task Times: Solutions
Leave some
Use buffer
idle time in
Reduce inventory Use parallel
workstations
variability between work stations
which have
work stations
random times
use higher
quality material,
do preventive
maintenance
63
Bottleneck Workstation
Bottleneck
60/hr. 60/hr.
1 min. 1 min. 1 min.
30/hr.
2 min. 30/hr.
Parallel Workstations
64
Designing Process Layouts
7-65
Example: Process Layout Design
Distance between locations (metres)
Location
From To A B C
A 20 40
B 20 30
C 40 30
A
B C
Dept. 6
D E F
68
Example
From/To A B C D E F
A - 50 100 50 80 130
B - 50 90 40 70
C - 140 60 50
D - 50 120
E - 50
F -
Example
Pair of Dept Workflow
From-To Departmental Workflows (# trips per day) 1-2 (90+35)=125
1-4 (23+41)= 64
Fro
1 2 3 4 5 6 1-3 62
m/To
2-6 54
1 - 90 25 23 11 18 1-6 50
2-5 26
2 35 - 8 5 10 16
1-5 25
3 37 2 - 1 0 7 3-6 20
2-4 17
4 41 12 1 - 4 0 4-5 13
2-3 10
5 14 16 0 9 - 3
5-6 5
6 31 38 13 2 2 - 3-4 2
4-6 2
3-5 0
70
So what do we do?
D E F
That leaves 5 in C. Dept. 3 Dept. 1 Dept. 4
71
This all means? Total Cost!
Pair of Dept. b. Distance c. Workflow (b*c*$2) Cost
1-2 (B-E) 40 125 $10 000
1-3 (D-E) 50 62 6 200
1-4 (F-E) 50 64 6 400
1-5 (E-C) 60 25 3 000
1-6 (A-E) 80 50 8 000
2-3 (B-D) 90 10 1 800
2-4 (B-F) 70 17 2 380
2-5 (B-C) 50 26 2 600
2-6 (A-B) 50 54 5 400
3-4 (F-D) 120 2 480
3-5 (D-C) 140 0 0
3-6 (A-D) 50 20 2 000
4-5 (C-F) 50 13 1 300
4-6 (A-F) 130 2 520
5-6 (A-C) 100 5 1000
72
Closeness Ratings - Muther
73
Muther Grid
74
Service Layouts
Free flow
Encourage browsing, impulse, flexibility
Grid
Customer familiarity, low cost, easy to clean
Loop and Spine
Increase customer sightlines and expose, encourages
circulation
75
Pretty Pictures
76
Design of Work Systems
CHAPTER 7
77
Job Design
78
Introduction to Job Design
Efficiency Approach
Includes specialization, methods analysis, and time standards
Rational for specialization: concentrate ones efforts and thus
become proficient at that type of work
Assembly line jobs can be monotonous and boring
Behavioural Approach
To make jobs more interesting:
1. Job enlargement
2. Job rotation
3. Job enrichment
4. Self-directed teams
79
Specialization: Advantages
80
Specialization: Disadvantages
81
Methods Analysis
Methods analysis
breaks down the job into sequence of tasks and elements and
improves it.
Basic procedure:
1. Identify the job to be studied and gather information
Ask:
Why is there a delay or shortage at this point?
How can travel distances be shortened/avoided?
Can an operation be eliminated?
Can the sequence be changes?
Can similar activities be grouped?
Would additional or better equipment help?
83
Worker-Machine Chart
Helps to see portions of work cycle
during which an operator and equipment
are busy or idle.
84
Motion Study
Purpose:
Eliminate unnecessary motions
85
Motion Study: techniques / tools
86
Working Conditions: Government Regulation
87
Working Conditions
88
Safety: Protection Against Hazards
emergency
safety devices housekeeping
equipment
thorough enforcement
training of procedures
89
Safety
90
Ergonomics
91
Work Measurement
92
Standard Time
The amount of time it should take a qualified worker to
complete a specific task
93
Stopwatch Time Study
94
Number of cycles
2 2
zs zs
n or n
ax e
z =Number of Normal standard deviations needed for desired confidence
s =Sample standard deviation
a =Desired accuracy proportion (= percentage/100)
=Sample mean
e =Accuracy amount or maximum acceptable error amount
n =xnumber of observations (= sample size)
95
Example
Determine number of observations needed to achieve a specified maximum error,
with a confidence of 95.5 percent. mean = 5.2 minutes, standard deviation = 1.1
minutes
a. A maximum error of +/- 6% of the sample mean.
b. A maximum error of .40 minute.
97
Standard Time
Standard time = Normal time x Allowance Factor
Standard time = NT .
1 Allowance %
based on time in workday
used when different tasks have similar allowances
98
Time Study Example
You want to determine the standard time for a job.
A worker produced 20 items in an 8 hour day. As the
worker was nervous under observation, it was
estimated that the employee worked about 10%
faster than normal. Allowances for the job are 25%
of the normal time.
What are the normal and standard times for this job?
99
Time Study Example Solution
Normal time = Observed Time x (Performance rating)
= 26.4 minutes
Standard time = NT .
1 Allowance
= (26.4)/(1-0.25)
= 35.2 minutes
100
Cautions on Time Studies
101
Predetermined Element Times
102
Work Sampling
technique for estimating the proportion of time that a
worker or machine spends on each activity or is idle.
103
Work Sampling
2. Notify
1. Identify worker and 3. Compute
worker to be supervisors to initial estimate
studied avoid arousing of sample size
suspicions
104
Work Sampling: determining sample
size
z =Number of Normal standard deviations needed for desired confidence
a =Desired accuracy proportion (= percentage/100)
p = sample proportion (estimate)
n = number of observations = sample size
105
Compensation
Time-based pay
Compensation based on time an employee has worked
during a pay period
106
Compensation
107
Output-based (piece rate) pay
108
LEARNING CURVES
SUPPLEMENT
109
Underlying Principles
110
The Learning Effect
111
Learning with Improvements
112
Determining Unit Times
b
Tn = T1 n
where:
Tn = Time for the n-th unit
T1 = Time for the first unit
learning%
b = ln ln 2
100
113
Example
114
Solution
= T 1 x nb
= 475 x 24(ln.75/ln2)
= 127.01 days
115
Table (Factor) Approach
Table gives:
unit value time factor
for # of units produced
in the sequence (unit
number)
total (cumulative) time
factor
for n units
116
Same Example
117
Solution
118
119
75% learning curve, Unit = 24
From table: Unit Time = .267
Total Time = 9.928
120
Calculating Learning Rate
UNIT TIME UNIT TIME
1 11 6 4.2
2 10.6 7 3.1
3 9 8 2
4 7.3 9 1.5
5 5 10 .3
121
Estimating the Rate
122
Average of Calculated Values
Cake No Time (min) Rate
1 20
2 15 =15/20 = .750
3 15
4 13 = 13/15 = .867
5 12
6 11
7 10
8 10 = 10/13 = .769
Average .795
123
We know that T1 = 20 and r = .795
124
If we were to estimate learning rate
using a given b value
learning%
ln ln 2
Remember that b = 100
125
Determine the minimum number of
repetitions to achieve a given standard
126
Cautions
127
LOCATION PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 8
128
Nature of Location Decisions
129
Supply Chain
Location factors can depend on where a business is in the
supply chain
Supplier
Near source of raw materials
Middle
Close to supplier or customer
Retail
Accessibility
Demographics
Traffic patterns
130
Formal Decision Process
131
Regional Factors
132
Foreign Locations
We worry about
Political stability
Attitude toward foreign companies
Language and cultural differences
Exchange rates and currency risks
133
Community Considerations
134
Site Related Factors
135
Why Canada?
136
How do we evaluate?
1. Locational Break-Even
2. Factor rating
3. Centre of Gravity
4. Transportation
137
1. Break-Even
138
For Example
139
Fixed Variable Total
Costs Costs Costs
140
2. Factor-Rating Method
141
Example
Operating Cost 20 7 6
Building Cost 7 5 8
Size 14 8 9
Distance 35 6 7.5
143
3. Center of Gravity
144
Center of Gravity Steps
145
Centre of Gravity
xiQi
x - bar =
Qi
yiQi
y - bar =
Qi
A (5, 8) 15
B (6, 9) 20
C (3, 9) 25
D (9, 4) 30
It considers:
Demand constraints
Capacity constraints
For multi-facility conditions
It is a special purpose algorithm of linear
programming
148
Location Analysis Software
149
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
CHAPTER 17
150
Projects
Examples:
Building construction, research, event
151
Project Phases
1. Project Initiation
Conception, feasibility study, selection
2. Planning and Scheduling
Activity breakdown, determine resources/costs/risks,
schedule/subcontract
3. Execution and Control
Purchase, monitor, adjust
4. Closeout
Ensure completion, paperwork, review
152
Project Selection Steps
153
Projects
Ethical Issues
Temptation to understate costs, withhold information,
misleading status reports, falsifying records,
compromising workers safety, approving substandard
work
154
Project Planning
Project Planning
Putting the project into work activities, figuring out
needed resources, scheduling, etc.
Quality Planning
How is quality going to be assured and controlled
Communications Planning
What information do shareholders need
Purchase Planning
What to purchase, specifications, from who?
155
Risk Management Planning
Risk Management
1.Identify potential risks
2.Analyze and assess risks
3.Work to minimize occurrence of risks
4.Establish contingency plans
156
Risk Response
Backup systems
Use a more stable supplier
Reducing project scope
Risk-sharing
Extending the schedule
Creating contingency funds
157
Project Management Tools
158
1. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
159
WBS
160
Project Scheduling
161
2. Gantt Chart
162
3. PERT and CPM
163
Precedence Network Diagram
Path
Any sequence that leads from start
to end
164
Critical path
Longest from start to end
Determines expected project duration
0 slack time
Critical Activities
Any activities on the critical path
165
Example
166
Solution
167
Activity Durations
Deterministic
Time estimates that are fairly certain
Probabilistic
Time estimates that allow for variation
PERT, will be shown later on
Time-Cost Models
Used for cost trade offs in crashing (after PERT)
168
Solution Techniques
Network Activities!
ES: earliest start time
EF: earliest finish time
LS: latest start time
LF: latest finish time
169
170
ES and EF
172
Slack
173
How can we use slack?
Slack is SHARED
If two activities on the same path have the same slack,
this is total slack available to both
174
How about we do some examples.ok!
175
Problemo
You are given this, find the ES, EF, LS, LF, critical
path, and slack times for all activities
176
Step 1: Draw it out
A F
4 8
B D
Start End
5 6
G
12
C E
7 4
177
Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF
Activity Time Pred ES EF LS LF Slack
A 4 -
B 5 -
C 7 -
D 6 B,C
E 4 C
F 8 A,D
G 12 E
ES = MAX of EF of Predecessors
EF = ES + Activity time
LF = MIN LS of Successors
LS = LF Activity time
Activity Slack = LS-ES OR LF-EF
Critical Activity if LS-ES = 0 of LF-EF =0; (if Activity Slack = 0)
178
Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF
Activity Time Pred ES EF LS LF Slack
A 4 - 0
B 5 - 0
C 7 - 0
D 6 B,C 7
E 4 C 7
F 8 A,D 13
G 12 E 11
ES = MAX of EF of Predecessors
EF = ES + Activity time
LF = MIN LS of Successors
LS = LF Activity time
Activity Slack = LS-ES OR LF-EF
Critical Activity if LS-ES = 0 of LF-EF =0; (if Activity Slack = 0)
179
Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF
Activity Time Pred ES EF LS LF Slack
A 4 - 0 4
B 5 - 0 5
C 7 - 0 7
D 6 B,C 7 13
E 4 C 7 11
F 8 A,D 13 21
G 12 E 11 23
ES = MAX of EF of Predecessors
EF = ES + Activity time
LF = MIN LS of Successors
LS = LF Activity time
Activity Slack = LS-ES OR LF-EF
Critical Activity if LS-ES = 0 of LF-EF =0; (if Activity Slack = 0)
180
Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF
Activity Time Pred ES EF LS LF Slack
A 4 - 0 4
B 5 - 0 5
C 7 - 0 7
D 6 B,C 7 13
E 4 C 7 11
F 8 A,D 13 21 15 23
G 12 E 11 23 11 23
ES = MAX of EF of Predecessors
EF = ES + Activity time
LF = MIN LS of Successors
LS = LF Activity time
Activity Slack = LS-ES OR LF-EF
Critical Activity if LS-ES = 0 of LF-EF =0; (if Activity Slack = 0)
181
Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF
Activity Time Pred ES EF LS LF Slack
A 4 - 0 4 11 15
B 5 - 0 5
C 7 - 0 7
D 6 B,C 7 13 9 15
E 4 C 7 11 7 11
F 8 A,D 13 21 15 23
G 12 E 11 23 11 23
ES = MAX of EF of Predecessors
EF = ES + Activity time
LF = MIN LS of Successors
LS = LF Activity time
Activity Slack = LS-ES OR LF-EF
Critical Activity if LS-ES = 0 of LF-EF =0; (if Activity Slack = 0)
182
Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF
Activity Time Pred ES EF LS LF Slack
A 4 - 0 4 11 15
B 5 - 0 5 4 9
C 7 - 0 7 0 7
D 6 B,C 7 13 9 15
E 4 C 7 11 7 11
F 8 A,D 13 21 15 23
G 12 E 11 23 11 23
ES = MAX of EF of Predecessors
EF = ES + Activity time
LF = MIN LS of Successors
LS = LF Activity time
Activity Slack = LS-ES OR LF-EF
Critical Activity if LS-ES = 0 of LF-EF =0; (if Activity Slack = 0)
183
Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF
Activity Time Pred ES EF LS LF Slack
A 4 - 0 4 11 15 11
B 5 - 0 5 4 9 4
C 7 - 0 7 0 7 0
D 6 B,C 7 13 9 15 2
E 4 C 7 11 7 11 0
F 8 A,D 13 21 15 23 2
G 12 E 11 23 11 23 0
ES = MAX of EF of Predecessors
EF = ES + Activity time
LF = MIN LS of Successors
LS = LF Activity time
Activity Slack = LS-ES OR LF-EF
Critical Activity if LS-ES = 0 of LF-EF =0; (if Activity Slack = 0)
184
PERT
185
Probabilistic Time Estimates
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
time time time
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What a Beta Distribution Looks Like
P(time)
P(time)
to tm te tp to te tm tp
Time Time
P(time)
to tm = te tp
Time
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Why do we Beta?
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Formulas
Expected time: te
to 4t m t p
te
6
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MORE!
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Example Time
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START: Draw it OUT!
2 3 10 3 3 15 3 5 10
A D F
258 4 8 18
Start End
B E
1 4 10 3 6 18
C G
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Table
Time Expected Activity
Estimates time Variance
Activity Pred to tm tp te 2
A ST 2 3 10
B ST 2 5 8
C ST 1 4 10
D A 3 3 15 Te(A) = 2+3(4)+10 = 4
E B 4 8 18
6
to 4m tp 2 tp to 2
Expected Activity Time te Activity Variance ( )
6 6
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Table
Time Expected Activity
Estimates time Variance
Activity Pred to tm tp te 2
A ST 2 3 10 4 1.778
B ST 2 5 8 5 1
C ST 1 4 10 4.5 2.5
D A 3 3 15 5 4
E B 4 8 18 9 5.44
to 4m tp 2 tp to 2
Expected Activity Time te Activity Variance ( )
6 6
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Table
Time Expected Activity
Estimates time Variance
Activity Pred to tm tp te 2
A ST 2 3 10 4 1.778
B ST 2 5 8 5 1
C ST 1 4 10 4.5 2.5
D A 3 3 15 5 4
E B 4 8 18 9 5.44
to 4m tp 2 tp to 2
Expected Activity Time te Activity Variance ( )
6 6
195
Paths
Path Path Path Slack Critical
Length
A-D-F-END
B-E-F-END
B-E-G-END
C-G-END
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Paths
Path Path Path Slack Critical
Length
A-D-F-END 4+5+5.5
= 14.5
B-E-F-END 5+9+5.5
= 19.5
C-G-END 4.5+5.5
= 10
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Paths
Path Path Path Slack Critical
Length
A-D-F-END 4+5+5.5 21.5-14.5 = 7
= 14.5
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Paths
Path Path Path Slack Critical
Length
A-D-F-END 4+5+5.5 21.5-14.5 = 7
= 14.5
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Path Statistics
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Path Probabilities
Z-scores
Specified length of time - Path mean duration
z
Path standard deviation of duration
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Looks familiar?
Determine probability that project is
completed within specified time
x-
Z=
where
= te = project mean time
= project standard deviation
x= proposed project time
Z= number of standard deviations x
is from mean
Note: probability that time will be within specified = area
Probability that time will exceed = 1-area
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Example
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Solution
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Simulation
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Project Execution and Control
Project Execution
Performance of activities planned
Funds spent, resources used
Project Control
Assessing progress against plans
Taking corrective actions as needed
Trend analysis generates forecasts of costs, completion time, etc.
Controlling changes
Scope creep = problem of uncontrolled changes to project scope
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Project Execution
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CRASHING
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Crashing reduces indirect, but increases direct costs
Total cost is minimized at optimum amount of crashing
Total Cost
C
O
S
T Cumulative
(direct)
cost of crashing
Expected
indirect CRASH
Costs
Shorten
Optimum
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Crashing
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Heuristic Approach
1. Reducing the length of the critical path(s)
2. Get estimates of NT and CT for each activity
3. Determine all path lengths and slack times
4. Determine critical activities
5. Reduce length of critical path by reducing duration of activities on the
path
6. Select the least cost critical activity, reduce by one time unit, and trace
that change through the remainder of the network
7. A new critical path may be created
8. When there is more than one critical path, reduce all
9. If the length of the project needs to be reduced further, process is
repeated
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Example
Activity Pred Regular Crash Regular Crash Max Crash
Duration Duration Cost Cost Possible Cost
Crashing Per Day
A - 10 8 40 50 2
B - 7 5 20 40 2
C B 5 4 98 100 1
D A,C 8 5 29 50 3
E B 12 10 8 20 2
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FIRST: Find Crash Cost/Day
Activity Pred Regular Crash Regular Crash Max Crash
Duration Duration Cost Cost Possible Cost Per
Crashing Day
A - 10 8 40 50 2 5
B - 7 5 20 40 2
C B 5 4 98 100 1
D A,C 8 5 29 50 3
E B 12 10 8 20 2
A - 10 8 40 50 2 5
B - 7 5 20 40 2 10
C B 5 4 98 100 1 2
D A,C 8 5 29 50 3 7
E B 12 10 8 20 2 6
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NEXT SET UP TABLE
Max Available 2 2 1 3 2
Crash Days
Cumulative 0 0 0 0 0
Crash Days
Total Project Cost = Normal Cost + Crashing Cost = 195 + 0 = 195
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Start Crashing
Crashing Crash Activity or Activities on Critical Path to Decrease Longest Path
by at least 1 day
Crash Activity C by 1 day, Cost = $2
Once you crash an activity as much as you can, cross it out (so cross out C)
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Crashing Crash Activity or Activities on Critical Path to Decrease Longest Path by
at least 1 day
Crash Activity B by 1day, Cost = $10
You now have two critical paths, have to crash activities on both. Crashing
B for 10 is cheaper than crashing D for 7 and E for 6 so you crash B.
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Crashing Crash Activity or Activities on Critical Path to Decrease Longest Path by
at least 1 day
Crash Activity D by 1day and E by 1 day, Cost = $13
Now all 3 are critical paths so you have to crash activities on each. B and D covers
two paths but D is cheaper. You therefore have to crash E on the final path
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Crashing Crash Activity or Activities on Critical Path to Decrease Longest Path by
at least 1 day
Crash Activity D by 1day and E by 1 day, Cost = $13
C and E are now out. We still have to crash activities on all of the paths, crash B and A.
Once you have done that you notice that B is now out of crashing days. You could no
longer crash any activities on the final critical path and are now done crashing!
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Answer the questions
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ALL DONE
THANKS FOR JOINING
GOOD LUCK ON YOUR
EXAM!!!
Heres a hideously
adorable baby sloth to
make you smile.
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