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1. Definition

Simulation is the process of designing a model of a real system and conducting experiments with
this model for the purpose of either understanding the behaviour of the system or evaluating
various strategies for the operation of the system.

2. Applications

New product development:

Determine that new product is profitable or unprofitable.

Model will be developed.
Possible values are generated using simulation model

Airline reservation:

Determine the number of reservation an airline should accept for a particular flight.
Simulation model is developed based on number of passenger and show up resulting

Design and operation of manufacturing systems:

In scheduling jobs if some complications occur such as breakdown, defective items and
etc. some complications are no problems for simulation.

Design and operation of distributing systems:

Uncertainties may arise in transportation of goods from manufacturer to consumers, by

generating random relevant probability distributions, simulation can deal with these

Financial risk analysis:

Evaluation of proposed capital investment with uncertain future cash flows, simulation
can generate thousands of alternative solution for how the investment will turn out.

Health care applications:

Evaluation of risky investment and analysis of future uncertainties.

Uncertainties such as evolution of human diseases are also determined using simulation.
3. Advantages of simulation

1. New policies, operation procedures, information flows and so on can be explored without
distrupting on going operation of the real system.
2. New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation system. Can be tested without
committing resources of their acquisition.
3. Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed up or slow-down of the
phenomenon (clock is self-control).
4. Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and important variables to the
5. Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in process, the system is
6. A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates.

4. Disadvantages of simulation

1. Model building requires special training.

2. Vendors of simulation software have been actively developing packages that contain
models that only need input (templates).
3. Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.
4. Simulation modelling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive.
5. Simulation software have output analysis.
5. Step In Simulation

There are few step of simulation:

Step 1: Problem Definition The first step to simulation is to define the objective by identifying
critical problem areas in a process. Once the problem areas are identified it facilitates data
and analysis for mapping the process steps in detail.

Step 2: Design the study - Once the objective of simulation is clear, the next step is to design the
This includes data collection, finalizing the model and the duration of the simulation exercise.

Step 3: Design the conceptual model During this stage, the first level of process mapping is
done to
understand the dependencies that exist in the process and to validate the data collected.

Step 4: Formulate inputs, assumptions and process definition In this phase, the simulation team
feeds the data collected into the model to generate the simulation. A critical step here is to
consider the
assumptions made while simulating the process. This step determines the predictability and
of the simulation model.

Step 5: Build, Verify and validate the simulation model The output of the simulation model is
to validate the model accuracy. The simulation model should be able to replicate the real world
scenario of the process as closely as possible. The final acceptance of modeling accuracy
depends on
the assumptions made and the objective of the simulation.
Step 6: Conduct the Design of Experiments (DOE) - Once the model is finalized it can then be
leveraged by conducting various What-If analyses. This needs to be done in a structured DoE
(Design of Experiment) way to ensure that all To-Be scenarios are simulated and the most
appropriate model is selected. It is important to note that the final To-Be model may not
replicate the
most optimized scenario. This is due to the fact that some process constraints cannot be excluded
real time.

Step 7: Document and present the model - Documentation is another critical step which ensures
the team is able to leverage the learning from the model in the long run.

Step 8: Define the model life cycle - Every model is true only within the process boundaries
in the first 3 steps. It is important to clearly define the boundaries of the process and when the
boundaries change, the model should be re-developed.
6. Example of Simulation : Stella

Stella is a flexible computer modelling package with an easy, intuitive interface that allows users
to construct dynamic models that realistically simulate systems. Given the combination of ease
of use and modeling power, the Stella system is ideal to interface with student investigative
experiences. In its most basic form, modeling in Stella proceeds in three steps: constructing a
qualitative model, parameterizing it, and exploring the model's dynamics.

Steps to Constructing a Stella Model:

1. Constructing a Model: To build a qualitative model, modelers first define stocks. Stocks
represent anything that can accumulate or change in number (populations, biomass, nutrient
content, water, etc...) and are related to the biological question of interest (i.e., represent the
important dependent variables and other variables that influence them). In addition to tangible,
physical accumulations, stocks can represent degrees of non-physical entities such as knowledge.
Next, users construct links to variables that affect the size of the stocks. These are usually direct
inputs or outputs modeled using flows. For example in a population, births would represent a
flow into the population. The magnitude of these flows can be adjusted by converters using links
or be affected by the size of stocks in a density-dependent manner. During this first modeling
step, students are forced to consider what the essential elements of the biological problem are,
and how they qualitatively influence one another. Their resulting models are not unlike concept

2. Parameterizing the Model: During the second modeling step, students quantify the
relationships among elements in their model. Stella allows both linear and non-linear
relationships to be expressed. Once again, students need to apply their understanding of the
biological problem to assist in this process.

3. Exploring Model Dyanamics: The last step of the modeling exercise is to explore the model
output. Modelers generate output in tabular and/or graphical form to explore quantitative or
qualitative outcomes. Also, modelers can manipulate parameters easily and perform sensitivity

We employ Stella modeling in combination with investigative exercises and experiments. The
modeling helps students develop hypotheses, explore predictions, summarize experimental
results, and extend their results to novel scenarios. Stella provides the flexibility to allow
students to model a variety of experimental systems and the power to provide for meaningful
outcomes that relate to specific biological content.
7. The Results Obtain By Using Stella Simulator

Experiment: To observe the value of the palm during and after it reap with the population
of owl (Burung Hantu) and rat.

1. Normal graph. (13000,10)

This graph shows that at the first phase of the graph, when the population of Burung Hantu is
increased, the population of Sumber Sawit is getting increased because the population of Tikus is
getting decreased. By times move, the population of Burung Hantu is getting lower, hence the
Sumber Sawit are in danger state as the population of Tikus is getting higher. At the last phase,
the balanced biological control numbers of Burung Hantu and Tikus makes the population of
Sumber Sawit increased by times to times.
2. The result obtained when the number of rat increased. (24000, 10)

Palm oil plantations have introduced the predatory owl as a natural solution to rats that feed on
the oil palm fruits, which are mashed to extract palm oil. Owls were first sighted in Malaysia in
1869 but were considered extremely rare in the country until 1970s. The first confirmed breeding
of the owls in Malaysia was recorded in 1969 on an oil palm estate in the southern state of Johor.
Since then, there has been a very close tie between the owls and the spread of oil palm
plantations, with their high rat population. As our knowledge, researchers say owls in oil palm
areas depend almost entirely on live rats for food. But in this case, we study what will happen
when the number of rats increased? When the owl population declined, having largely run out of
rat, these remaining few could set off a rat rebound.
Based on the above graph, the rat population increase, while the owl population is remained
similar to the previous graph. So, what can we conclude from these graphs is that when the rat of
a population that was too much, and the quantity of owls is scarce, it will also cause side effects
to plant oil palm. But when food resources in an area that a lot, so it will stimulate the owls for
food. And when the owls population increases indirectly rat population can be handled well.
Next, palm oil populations will not be threatened.

3. The result obtained when the number of rat decreased. (9000, 10)

The owl is a natural predator of rat, when the number of owls increases, the number of rat
decreased. This situation will effect the population of sumber sawit. As we can see on graph
above, the results shows the effection of population of rat, Burung Hantu and Sumber Sawit.
8. Conclusion

In conclusion, Stella or computer simulation system is suitable in Malaysian education. This

because there is a lot of advantages using this software for the student. Therefore, by using this
software, learning process will be more interesting. An interactive dynamic and can run easily
make the student excited to explore with this software. Stella software is also is an alternative to
attract student in any subject that required critical thinking especially in science subject.