CALCULO DE MAXIMAS AVENIDAS MEDIANTE LOS METODOS ESTADISTICOS

INFORMACION DE DESCARGA MAXIMAS PARA (N = 28) AOS DE REGISTRO

Q P=Q
Q Posicion T (aos) X=
T Ao m^3/s (%) m/ Y= LogX
m^3/s m (N+1)/m Q/Qmed.
(N+1)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1956 2547.0 2997.00 1 1.961 51.00 1.205 0.0810
1957 2523.0 2996.00 2 3.922 25.50 1.205 0.0809
1958 2522.0 2986.00 3 5.882 17.00 1.201 0.0794
1959 2510.0 2944.00 4 7.843 12.75 1.184 0.0733
1960 2997.0 2937.00 5 9.804 10.20 1.181 0.0722
1961 2996.0 2927.00 6 11.765 8.50 1.177 0.0708
1962 2986.0 2924.00 7 13.725 7.29 1.176 0.0703
1963 2944.0 2905.00 8 15.686 6.38 1.168 0.0675
1964 2937.0 2884.00 9 17.647 5.67 1.160 0.0643
1965 2927.0 2788.00 10 19.608 5.10 1.121 0.0496
1966 2924.0 2737.00 11 21.569 4.64 1.101 0.0416
1967 2905.0 2731.00 12 23.529 4.25 1.098 0.0406
1968 2884.0 2713.00 13 25.490 3.92 1.091 0.0378
1969 2686.0 2706.00 14 27.451 3.64 1.088 0.0367
1970 2650.0 2703.00 15 29.412 3.40 1.087 0.0362
1971 2562.0 2686.00 16 31.373 3.19 1.080 0.0334
1972 2558.0 2650.00 17 33.333 3.00 1.066 0.0276
1973 2555.0 2562.00 18 35.294 2.83 1.030 0.0129
1974 2788.0 2558.00 19 37.255 2.68 1.029 0.0122
1975 2737.0 2555.00 20 39.216 2.55 1.027 0.0117
1976 2731.0 2547.00 21 41.176 2.43 1.024 0.0104
1977 2713.0 2523.00 22 43.137 2.32 1.014 0.0062
1978 2706.0 2522.00 23 45.098 2.22 1.014 0.0061
1979 2703.0 2510.00 24 47.059 2.13 1.009 0.0040
1980 2330.0 2497.00 25 49.020 2.04 1.004 0.0017
1981 2299.0 2453.00 26 50.980 1.96 0.986 -0.0060
1982 2291.0 2439.00 27 52.941 1.89 0.981 -0.0085
1983 2288.0 2373.00 28 54.902 1.82 0.954 -0.0204
1984 2283.0 2365.00 29 56.863 1.76 0.951 -0.0218
1985 2276.0 2330.00 30 58.824 1.70 0.937 -0.0283
1986 2497.0 2299.00 31 60.784 1.65 0.924 -0.0341
1987 2453.0 2291.00 32 62.745 1.59 0.921 -0.0356
1988 2439.0 2288.00 33 64.706 1.55 0.920 -0.0362
1989 2373.0 2283.00 34 66.667 1.50 0.918 -0.0372
1990 2365.0 2276.00 35 68.627 1.46 0.915 -0.0385
1991 2172.0 2255.00 36 70.588 1.42 0.907 -0.0425
1992 2160.0 2241.00 37 72.549 1.38 0.901 -0.0452
 1993 2149.0 2241.00 38 74.510 1.34 0.901 -0.0452
1994 2127.0 2240.00 39 76.471 1.31 0.901 -0.0454
1995 2100.0 2225.00 40 78.431 1.28 0.895 -0.0483
1996 2051.0 2220.00 41 80.392 1.24 0.893 -0.0493
1997 2045.0 2206.00 42 82.353 1.21 0.887 -0.0521
1998 2032.0 2172.00 43 84.314 1.19 0.873 -0.0588
1999 2255.0 2160.00 44 86.275 1.16 0.869 -0.0612
2000 2241.0 2149.00 45 88.235 1.13 0.864 -0.0634
2001 2241.0 2127.00 46 90.196 1.11 0.855 -0.0679
2002 2240.0 2100.00 47 92.157 1.09 0.844 -0.0735
2003 2225.0 2051.00 48 94.118 1.06 0.825 -0.0837
2004 2220.0 2045.00 49 96.078 1.04 0.822 -0.0850
2005 2206.0 2032.00 50 98.039 1.02 0.817 -0.0877
Media 2486.98 -0.0030
Desv.
Est. 294.35 0.0510
Cof.
Asim. 0.29 0.1486

ANALISIS DE MAXIMAS AVENIDAS - METODO LOG - NORMAL

PER.
FACTOR
DE PROBABILI ESTIMA ANTILOGARI Q=
FRECUEN
RETOR DAD DO TMO (Y) (m^3/s)
CIA
NO
T Aos P K=Z Y X Q = XQ
2 0.50000 0.0000 -0.0030 0.9932 2470.13
5 0.20000 0.8415 0.0400 1.0965 2726.92
10 0.10000 1.2817 0.0625 1.1547 2871.75
25 0.04000 1.7511 0.0864 1.2202 3034.63
50 0.02000 2.0542 0.1019 1.2645 3144.69
75 0.01333 2.2168 0.1102 1.2889 3205.37
100 0.01000 2.3268 0.1158 1.3056 3247.08
150 0.00667 2.4752 0.1234 1.3286 3304.20
200 0.00500 2.5762 0.1286 1.3445 3343.69
300 0.00333 2.7134 0.1356 1.3663 3398.05
400 0.00250 2.8074 0.1404 1.3815 3435.78
500 0.00200 2.8785 0.1440 1.3931 3464.62
1000 0.00100 3.0905 0.1548 1.4283 3552.04
 ANALISIS DE MAXIMAS AVENIDAS -
METODO DE GUMBEL
Q
T Aos P K
(m^3/s)
2 0.50000 -0.1643 2438.63
5 0.20000 0.7195 2698.75
10 0.10000 1.3046 2870.98
25 0.04000 2.0438 3088.59
50 0.02000 2.5923 3250.02
75 0.01333 2.9111 3343.85
100 0.01000 3.1367 3410.26
150 0.00667 3.4541 3503.70
200 0.00500 3.6791 3569.92
300 0.00333 3.9959 3663.17
400 0.00250 4.2205 3729.29
500 0.00200 4.3947 3780.56
1000 0.00100 4.9355 3939.75

OTRO
ANALISIS DE MAXIMAS AVENIDAS - METODO LOG - PEARSON
Z METOD
TIPO III
O
Q(m^3/s
T P K Y X
)
Estimad
Aos antilog(Y) Q = XQ K
o
2 0.50000 0.0184 -0.0042 0.9903 2462.96 0.0000 -0.0247
5 0.20000 0.8463 0.0400 1.0965 2726.92 0.8415 0.8415
10 0.10000 1.2692 0.0625 1.1547 2871.75 1.2817 1.2817
25 0.04000 1.7125 0.0864 1.2202 3034.63 1.7511 1.7511
50 0.02000 1.9945 0.1019 1.2645 3144.69 2.0542 2.0542
75 0.01333 2.1446 0.1102 1.2889 3205.37 2.2168 2.2168
100 0.01000 2.2454 0.1158 1.3056 3247.08 2.3268 2.3268
150 0.00667 0.0184 0.1234 1.3286 3304.20 2.4752 2.4752
200 0.00500 2.4728 0.1286 1.3445 3343.69 2.5762 2.5762
300 0.00333 0.0184 0.1356 1.3663 3398.05 2.7134 2.7134
400 0.00250 0.0184 0.1404 1.3815 3435.78 2.8074 2.8074
500 0.00200 2.7453 0.1440 1.3931 3464.62 2.8785 2.8785
1000 0.00100 2.9346 0.1548 1.4283 3552.04 3.0905 3.0905
 COMPARACION DE LOS VALORES DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS
OBTENIDOS
Q Q Q
T P Q (m^3/s)
(m^3/s) (m^3/s) (m^3/s)
observad Log - Log -
Aos Gumbel
o Normal Pearson
2 0.50000 2470.13 2438.63 2462.96
5 0.20000 2726.92 2698.75 2726.92
10 0.10000 2871.75 2870.98 2871.75
25 0.04000 3034.63 3088.59 3034.63
50 0.02000 3144.69 3250.02 3144.69
75 0.01333 3205.37 3343.85 3205.37
100 0.01000 3247.08 3410.26 3247.08
150 0.00667 3304.20 3503.70 3304.20
200 0.00500 3343.69 3569.92 3343.69
300 0.00333 3398.05 3663.17 3398.05
400 0.00250 3435.78 3729.29 3435.78
500 0.00200 3464.62 3780.56 3464.62
1000 0.00100 3552.04 3939.75 3552.04

CALCULO DE LOS LIMITES DE CONFIANZA - METODO LOG -NORMAL

t (estad.)=
Grados de libertad:50- 2 = 48
2.056
LCS
T P K=Z Y IC (Y) LCI (Y) LCI (Q) LCS (Q)
(Y)
0.012 2385.4
2 0.50000 0.0000 -0.0030 0.0151 -0.0181 2 6 2557
0.057 2618.4
5 0.20000 0.8415 0.0400 0.0176 0.0224 6 6 2839
0.082 2739.7
10 0.10000 1.2817 0.0625 0.0204 0.0420 9 0 3010
0.110 2870.7
25 0.04000 1.7511 0.0864 0.0241 0.0623 5 5 3207
0.128 2957.0
50 0.02000 2.0542 0.1019 0.0267 0.0752 6 9 3344
0.138 3004.0
75 0.01333 2.2168 0.1102 0.0282 0.0820 4 9 3420
0.145 3036.1
100 0.01000 2.3268 0.1158 0.0292 0.0867 0 8 3472
0.153 3079.8
150 0.00667 2.4752 0.1234 0.0305 0.0929 9 6 3544
 0.160 3109.9
200 0.00500 2.5762 0.1286 0.0315 0.0971 0 0 3595
0.168 3151.0
300 0.00333 2.7134 0.1356 0.0328 0.1028 3 4 3664
0.174 3179.4
400 0.00250 2.8074 0.1404 0.0337 0.1067 0 7 3712
0.178 3201.1
500 0.00200 2.8785 0.1440 0.0344 0.1096 3 2 3749
0.191 3266.4
1000 0.00100 3.0905 0.1548 0.0364 0.1184 2 3 3862

Probability Plot of C1
Normal - 95% CI
99
Mean 334.1
StDev 119.2
95 N 50
AD 0.752
90
P-Value 0.047
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10
5

1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
C1
 CALCULO DE LOS LIMITES DE CONFIANZA - METODO DE GUMBEL
Grados de libertad 50 - 2 = 48 t (estad.) = 2.056
T P K Q (m^3/s) IC (Q) LCI (Q) LCS (Q)
2 0.50000 -0.1643 2438.63 87.94 2350.69 2526.56
5 0.20000 0.7195 2698.75 98.00 2600.75 2796.76
10 0.10000 1.3046 2870.98 118.84 2752.14 2989.82
25 0.04000 2.0438 3088.59 153.52 2935.07 3242.10
50 0.02000 2.5923 3250.02 182.39 3067.63 3432.42
75 0.01333 2.9111 3343.85 199.90 3143.95 3543.75
100 0.01000 3.1367 3410.26 212.52 3197.74 3622.79
150 0.00667 3.4541 3503.70 230.54 3273.17 3734.24
200 0.00500 3.6791 3569.92 243.45 3326.47 3813.38
300 0.00333 3.9959 3663.17 261.81 3401.36 3924.98
400 0.00250 4.2205 3729.29 274.93 3454.36 4004.22
500 0.00200 4.3947 3780.56 285.15 3495.41 4065.71
1000 0.00100 4.9355 3939.75 317.12 3622.64 4256.87
 Probability Plot of C1
Normal - 95% CI
99
Mean 334.1
StDev 119.2
95 N 50
AD 0.752
90
P-Value 0.047
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10
5

1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
C1

CALCULO DE LOS LIMITES DE CONFIANZA - METODO LOG - PEARSON TIPO III

t
Grados de libertad 50
(estad.) 2.06
- 3 = 47
=
 LCS
T P K Y IC (Y) LCI (Y) LCI (Q) LCS (Q)
(Y)
- -
0.024 0.004 0.011 2377.4
2 0.50000 7 2 0.0153 -0.0196 1 8 2551.51
0.833 0.039 0.057 2616.0
5 0.20000 3 6 0.0176 0.0220 2 2 2837.10
1.296 0.063 0.083 2743.5
10 0.10000 5 2 0.0206 0.0426 8 3 3016.42
1.801 0.089 0.113 2884.5
25 0.04000 2 0 0.0246 0.0644 6 9 3230.27
2.133 0.105 0.133 2979.4
50 0.02000 1 9 0.0275 0.0785 4 7 3381.23
2.313 0.115 0.144 3031.8
75 0.01333 2 1 0.0291 0.0860 2 0 3466.54
2.435 0.121 0.151 3067.8
100 0.01000 7 4 0.0302 0.0912 6 0 3526.00
2.602 0.129 0.161 3117.1
150 0.00667 1 9 0.0318 0.0981 7 8 3608.53
2.716 0.135 0.168 3151.3
200 0.00500 1 7 0.0329 0.1028 6 7 3666.31
2.871 0.143 0.178 3198.5
300 0.00333 7 6 0.0344 0.1093 0 4 3746.79
2.978 0.149 0.184 3231.3
400 0.00250 8 1 0.0354 0.1137 5 6 3803.32
3.060 0.153 0.189 3256.4
500 0.00200 2 3 0.0362 0.1171 4 8 3846.88
3.304 0.165 0.204 3332.8
1000 0.00100 4 7 0.0386 0.1271 3 9 3980.80
 Probability Plot of C1
Normal - 95% CI
99
Mean 334.1
StDev 119.2
95 N 50
AD 0.752
90
P-Value 0.047
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10
5

1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
C1