Stuart M.

Leiderman
"Environmental Refugees and Ecological Restoration"
Environmental Response/4th World Project
P.O. Box 1055, Concord, New Hampshire 03302 USA
ph 603.269.2139 leiderman@mindspring.com

REFUGEE" EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

adapted from part of doctoral program qualifier exam

Natural Resources Department, University of New Hampshire-Durham, June 1995

INTRODUCTION

"Please cite specific examples of how remote sensing methods could be used to monitor and document conditions
and changes leading to environmental refugees. Be very specific, citing the types of remote sensing tools to be
used, the approach(es) most likely to lead to success, and the types of environmental assessment capabilities
associated with each tool and approach. Known (published) examples may be used or a hypothetical application of
existing methods and approaches may be presented in answering this question. In what ways can standard GIS
tools help to manage the data streams that result, and can these tools/analyses provide methods to predict future
episodes of environmental refugeeism?"

My name for this new application is Refugee-Enabling Forecasts Using Global Environmental Evaluations or
REFUGEE. It is primarily intended for access by refugees and people who fear they may soon become uprooted;
the task is to include them in data gathering and Earth-systems education and then attempt to devise forecasts and
scenarios that can help identify, slow, avert or avoid disastrous triggering events and processes.

My hypothesis is that the rate and the duration of deterioration towards certain threshold values or relationships
among key ecological, economic, demographic and other variables is predictive of the triggering and timing of
refugee flows. The rate of deterioration would seem to address sudden-onset refugee episodes; the duration of
deterioration would seem to address long-onset episodes. The work would seem to be a good candidate for
gathering and integrating remote sensing data about urgent situations and managing output through a geographic
information system. If such a hypothesis holds, and can be boiled down and applied to general or regional or
ecosystem-type categories, the formula would help to prioritize endangered populations by their "estimated time to
flight"; this may be of use in strategic planning for environmental refugee prevention and relief.

II. THE RESPONSIBILITY OF SCIENTISTS IN WORLD AFFAIRS

At one time, there was an image of "scientist" as a highly-trained self-engrossed person who performed
experiments or manipulations, gathered data, interpreted results, wrote in a journal and went home at the end of a
long day to smoke a pipe. The image's emphasis was on being self-engrossed or individualistic. But, in the modern
sense, scientists are products of society, and the impetus for people to "become" scientists seems to come less and
less from personal inspiration and curiosity about phenomena and their causes and effects, and more and more
forcefully from political, social and economic incentives or obligations to achieve superiority in certain fields which
change over time...determined by others, not by the scientists.

Today, the sciences are heavily underwritten by government, institutions and industry, so that these sectors can
define and accomplish their missions and persist amid competition that is heavy and sometimes deadly. The
agendas of these sectors, occasionally overlapping, occasionally clashing, offer scientists a range of what could be
called "scientific service" which is actually a kind of limited opportunity asking limited questions about limited
phenomena of, usually, near-term interest or concern. Sometimes there don't seem to be ways to break away from
these limitations.

A watershed for scientists was reached in 1945 when atom bombs were used against civilian targets. This
strange fruit of the Manhattan Project and the nuclear weapons race that followed, caused scientists to consider the
ethical implications of their "scientific service." Later, another watershed was reached when defoliants and massive
bombing were used, again against civilians. Millions of environmental refugees were caused and entire bioregions
were destroyed or transformed. Once more, scientists paused to consider the context within which they worked,
questioned, experimented, and tried to apply the results of their labor.

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 A third watershed was reached barely fifteen years ago when the triumph and momentum of manned and
unmanned space travel was abruptly diverted towards inventing placing in orbit weapon systems and sophisticated
surveillance as defense against a nuclear first-strike threat: multiple, independently-targeted warheads on
intercontinental ballistic missiles. Again, scientists wondered about the nature of their servitude to governments,
institutions and industry.

A trickle away from this last watershed period seems to have become the science of Earth remote sensing, which
specializes in detecting and making "sense" of minute (or catastrophic) changes in planetary behavior without
necessarily being personally or intimately connected or present when the change is occurring. As a novice
researching this subject for the first time, the application of knowledge gained through remote sensing, ultimately in
the service of people who are not necessarily within government, institutions or industry, appears to exemplify an
alternative scientific direction for those bothered by the way scientific service is conventionally promoted, offered,
conducted and used in modern society.

In preparing this report, this precise thought was not found in any one article, but it is felt that something
reasonably close to it could be gathered through correspondence or interviews with many of the authors reviewed
here. Further, despite the often dense use of acronyms (an everpresent hallmark of science) the language within
articles reviewed was less of a thicket than anticipated and much of it was particularly clear and purposeful, with the
authors describing real places, common experiences, and continuing obstacles preventing them from a social
responsibility.

Regarding obstacles, there were many reports of new applications for sensing technologies originally developed
for entirely different purposes. Thus, the science practiced here came across as being creative while at same time
being highly inferential or synthetic, often out of necessity. Here are a few examples:

"Remotely-sensed data provide different information from that normally required for conventional ground-based
range condition and erosion assessment procedures. Plant species composition usually cannot be detected directly
from reflectance characteristics.... In most cases, the only data which can be obtained from satellites are a set of
vegetation indices whose values are related to percentage vegetation cover, greenness and, to some extent,
biomass.... Land degradation, therefore must be defined in terms of one or more of these indices (Pickup and
Chewings, 1994)."

"Two civilian space borne SAR are currently operating: the European ERS-1 and the Japanese JERS-1, and two
more are going to be launched: the European ERS-2 and the Canadian RADARSAT. Those satellites have
interferometric capabilities although their missions were not dedicated to SAR interferometry. Thus, their
operational observations are constrained by the limited Earth coverage and the orbital repetitivity (Rossi, 1994)."

"The type of information required for the evaluation of site-specific seismic hazard is not normally collected by
remotely sensed data.... The reason for this is that this process normally requires data on the distribution of soil
types at depth which remote sensing cannot yield. However, much of this information can be usefully stored in a
geographic information system (GIS) which can incorporate remotely sensed data.... (Murphy, 1994).

"Today remote sensing systems specifically tailored to the requirements of natural hazards detection do not exist;
the experience gained so far has been acquired, albeit at a slow pace, by addressing the issues with instruments
which were never designed for such a purpose. The case of fires in ecosystems and deforestation clearly illustrate
this situation [with the use of data from the NOAA AVHRR] (Belward and Malingreau, 1994)."

Without a doubt, there will be a trend toward launching systems that more closely provide the kind of data these
specialists seek, because 1) transforming data to make them answer totally different kind of questions is expensive,
time consuming, and can often be a gamble, and 2) certain applications, such as disaster prevention, cannot permit
too much of a gamble.

Because articles concerning research about disaster prevention and/or early warning capabilities were found at
least once in every issue of recent volumes of the International Journal of Remote Sensing, and was in fact the
subject of an entire conference proceeding, "Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing," it can be assumed that a
fraction of this science is driven by the needs of whole populations seeking to avoid or avert sudden or eventual
catastrophe.

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 Scientists who respond to this need by seeking data and communicating analyses or forecasts to promote the
general health and welfare can easily be called "socially responsible," and it is a commitment clearly evident in
some of the technical literature:

"[A] tropical cyclone warning system...is not just a matter of a meteorologist writing a warning and saying 'that's my
job done, I can go home now!'. The warning itself is only part of the system--and in many respects only a minor
part! (Longworth, 1994)"

"Remote sensing technologies have great potential to assess volcanic hazards...but these capabilities will not be
effective unless communications channels are established and continually maintained between the scientific
organizations...., the national emergency services agencies responsible for acting on the information provided, and
ultimately with the populations at risk.... What is needed are 'people channels', people-to-people linkages between
responsible individuals in different agencies who personally know each other.... Scientists in their laboratories have
a moral responsibility to see how their data are used--it is not enough to merely collect the data, to present it at
scientific meetings, and to assume one's job is done. If our data have the potential to save lives, you must make an
effort to see that they reach the right hands and are understood....(Lockwood et al, 1994)"

III. THE PHENOMENON AND PLIGHT OF ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES

There are millions of environmental refugees, people fleeing or forced by others to flee from their homelands
permanently or semi-permanently, either purely because of the effects of sudden or accumulating environmental
disasters or because of combinations of environmental and other causes including political persecution, terrorism
and warfare.

Although human life in certain natural settings has always been precarious, man-made catastrophes are
becoming pervasive. Governments and economies systematically keep forcing people in agricultural regions to
push their land to excess (in Somalia, for instance, by campaigns to raise cattle on sparse grassland for direct
export to Saudi Arabia); population growth has often been encouraged as a national security measure (as is the
historical case in Japan) only to backlash when overcrowding forces settlements into unsustainable (and in the case
of Kobe, unstable) regions; industrialization has diminished employment, substituting low-temperature labor with
energy-intensive machinery requiring combustion processes whose wastes pollute the soil, land and sky, often
beyond the threshold of habitability (as has been discovered in Eastern Europe).

Every time something or someone creates environmental refugees, there are two immediate impacts: uprooted
people and serious environmental damage. But there is also a delayed impact on refugees' destinations, because
other people probably already live there. If an episode involves thousands of refugees, the conseqwuent water and
food shortages, erosion, waste problems, deforestation, etc. can rival the effects that caused of the original episode.
Deadly conflicts and long-term animosity may be additional consequences.

IV. THE NEEDS OF ENVIRONMENTALLY-VULNERABLE PEOPLE

People can be environmentally-sensitive without having to flee. They can find alternative methods for surviving
and maintaining livelihoods, at least until conditions return to normal or don't deteriorate too rapidly. People who are
pressed to adapt for too long, such as those caught in prolonged drought or flooding, become environmentally-
vulnerable, meaning they draw down their reserves of resources, run out of ingenuity, and become weakened and
susceptible to the least additional distress. This can become an overwhelming experience and trigger decisions to
abandon their homes in search of refuge, often a great distance away. In order to survive, their decisions to move
must be made while people still have the health and capability to flee; otherwise, they'll die and not become
refugees.

All people in distress are faced with series of difficult decisions. For those becoming refugees, ultimately, the time
comes to decide whether to "stay or leave." Because no one wants to leave home unnecessarily or against their
will, it helps greatly to be able to "see" a little way into the future. Thus, "early warning" has developed as a method
for seeing a little way into the future.

A discussion of this appears in Leon Gordenker's chapter "Early Warning of Refugee Incidents" in Loescher and
Monahan (eds), Refugees and International Relations, Oxford U., 1989. Gordenker works backwards from the
secondary impacts of refugees and talks primarily about the benefits to potential refugee hosts. However, by
imagining one is about to become a refugee, the reader can see where early warning fits into the predicament of

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whether and when to flee [note: when I first read this, it felt like I was reading someone else's mail--I wondered how
many refugees read books about "what to do with refugees"]:

"The use of early warning better to prepare for the appearance of refugees seems to offer obvious advantages
over the present situation. As it is now the arrival of forced migrants often surprises and even overwhelms everyone
concerned. Even when the occasional clear warning is sounded, it may be disregarded for a number of reasons:
because of questions about its source, questions about its authenticity, lack of confirmation, contradiction of
apparently sound assumptions, or the political ramifications of reaction (p355)."

"Early warning employs authentic information relevant to the development of a forced migration. The analysis of
this information, the conclusions drawn as to the probable process of migration, and the transmission of the results
of these analyses to those in a position to respond constitutes early warning.... Early warning related to a process,
rather than an isolated event that sparks off forced migration. Any movement of people takes place over a period of
time. In some instances a long period of gestation may precede any movement (pp355-356)."

"Public awareness of a forced migration may only come after a long build-up.... A complete early warning system
should be able to compile useful information to cover refinements of the rather coarse formal definition of refugees
used in most inter-governmental co-operation. Failure to do so would gravely limit the utility of the information. A
successful system would assume the ability to make useful forecasts. The purpose of these forecasts would be to
initiate a rapid, effective quick response.... This response could be directed to the long-term causes of force
migration, with a view to preventing the misery involved in displacement....(pp357-358)."

Gordenker discusses the myriad sources of information that could constitute a database permitting early warning
of refugee episodes: "The design of an analytical scheme could draw much from the increasingly sophisticated
forecasting methods used in connection with food shortages in developing countries.... At the macro level,
forecasts of crop failures can be based on information gathered by satellite, by whole country crop forecasts relying
on statistics...and even to some extent on meteorological data.... Data gathered at the micro level include the
numbers of animals offered for sale and the appearance of family valuables on the market, and changes in the
price level of grains and other foods.... This famine forecasting technique employs concepts similar to those that
would be required in early warning of forced migrations (pp362-363)."

Then, a source was found that more directly speaks to the plight of the potential refugees than to the refugee
managers: Martin E. Silverstein's chapter "The Technology of Survival" in his book Disasters: Your Right to Survive,
Brassey's, 1992, describes the range of equipment and systems that are operational today. By now, it is probably
slightly behind the latest satellite capabilities, but is nonetheless instructive about the kind of high-technology
generally available to save lives and property:

"Massive and intricate problems call for innovative, large-scale prediction, tracking, and management
mechanisms. Fortunately, the products of civilization's second industrial revolution, the information revolution, are
at hand. Sensors that are quicker than the eye; satellites that keep watch over, on, and under the earth and its
oceans; communications networks that transmit sound and the entire electromagnetic spectrum almost
instantaneously; and computers that sort, update, and analyze data provide tools equal to the task if we install and
make logical use of them (p113)."

The eyes of polar orbital satellites scan a wide portion of the earth's surface daily. Geostationary satellites
coordinated with the earth's rotation keep a constant watch on a single continent or a cluster of countries, gathering
useful information. Their "footprints," their circles of earthly observation, overlap.... The optical resolution...is rapidly
approaching the point where the sensors can read an automobile license plate. Neither the phenomena of nature
nor the actions of people can be hidden (p114)."

"The technology of a disaster-research and -management system is most effective when it is global. The sources
of disaster and disasters themselves know no borders. We have seen that natural disasters may be born in one
hemisphere and have their worst effects in another. Industrial radiological catastrophes, such as the power plant
incident at Chernobyl, have by-products that are carried on the winds into other countries. Chemical accidents such
as the sudden dioxin explosion in [Seveso] Italy have implications that cross national frontiers....(p117-118)"

"Sensing satellites have demonstrated their capability in a number of fields. The global sensing satellite system is,
however, incomplete. The system suggested herein represents a plea for total global coverage operated on an
international level.

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 "The present system's contribution to land sciences has been impressive. The Soviet Union has developed a low-
earth-orbiting meteorological satellite, the Cosmos series.... The U.S. polar-orbiting satellites periodically monitor
weather and surface conditions over the entire globe, while another group of weather satellites remains in
geostationary orbit.... The Indian government's original satellite, INSAT, and its future companions have the
capability for weather observations and, therefore, early warning to Indian ports, ships and coastal cities of the
immense cyclones that ravage the vulnerable coasts of India.... ...Japan has an earth and atmospheric
observational satellite system. the Arab countries have mounted and maintained a cooperative strategic system,
part of which is space borne and called ARABSAT.

"The European Space Agency maintains...a common use, international system.... The Franco-American system
consists of two orbiting satellites, sensor-equipped platforms, and processing centers....

"The U.S. polar-orbiting satellites...measure and transmit to us information about the effect of the sun's energy on
the earth and our lives.... A space-borne instrument system with an advanced, very-high-resolution radiometer
(AVHRR) gathers and stores visible and infrared measurements so that land, ice, surface sea water, and cloud
conditions can be evaluated for different uses. This series of instruments has an extraordinarily high picture
resolution.... It is AVHRR that tracks fast-moving destructive weather. It also tells us about slow disasters such as
those leading to famine. It provides arid land analysis. The moisture and composition of soil are provided on each
sweep of the polar orbiter's watchful eye....(pp118-120)"

This sounds exactly like the kind of information people need to prevent them from becoming environmental
refugees. Why then, are there so many people fleeing from actual or impending disaster?

V. REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)

An instructive article was found to begin to understand how sophisticated surveillance and warning technology can
exist at the same time countries, especially poor countries, are suffering from multiple episodes of environmental
refugees. The article is Perera and Tateishi (1995) Do remote sensing and GIS have a practical application to
developing countries? (including some Sri Lankan experiences), in International Journal of Remote Sensing, 16:1,
pp35-51. Excerpts will be given, followed by the writer's reflections:

"By the end of this century, the global population will increase by another billion people, making a growing threat
to the natural resources. The situation in developing countries is critical, and only less than 10 percent of low
income countries are having an increasing annual growth rate of their forest and woodland areas. Population
control is beyond the curriculum of environmental scientists.... Newly developed satellite remote sensing and GIS
have crucial roles in this field, but the application of these sciences is showing large differences in developed and
developing countries....(p35)"

"In the 1960s, American planners and architects began to overlay maps using light tables to integrate the
resource information. This practice led to the production of a new research field, grid-cell or raster mapping
technique.... At present, remotely-sensed data and computer mapping are highly essential in environmental and
resource management studies. GIS (Geographical Information Systems) has become an integral part of such
research.... Every country wishes to use remote sensing and GIS technology for their resource management
purposes, but a clear gap naturally can be seen between rich and poor nations in acquiring, applying and
developing such technologies....(pp35-36)"

"In human geographical studies, various information gathered through archival data sources accounts for over 95
percent of the total amount of handling data.... The importance of the archival data sources have been expanded
qualitatively and quantitatively, with the beginning of the space age. Probably no combination of two technologies
has generated more interest and application over a wide range of disciplines than the merger of remote sensing
and space exploration.... The new era of Earth surface monitoring began in 1972, with...the first satellite of the U.S.
Earth observation satellite series, ERTS (Earth Resource Technology Satellite) [later renamed 'Landsat'.]

"Subsequent development in this field granted a huge amount of data to the research community, apart from the
other conventional spatial data. In the practical use, remotely-sensed images have to be linked with ground truth in
order to ascertain the relation between them and association with other spatial information. The need for such a
marriage between remote sensing and other information sources...has been made possible by the class of mapping
tools widely known as GIS.... A complete geographical information system contains tools for collecting, storing,
manipulating and displaying spatial data. From the beginning of the 1970s, the developed world has successfully
used remote sensing and GIS for resource development and management programmes (p37)."

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 In the entire literature search, this is the briefest and clearest account found that describes the interlink between
space technology (meaning "getting things out there the right distance away, in the proper orbit, etc."), remote
sensing (meaning seeing what's happening without being physically in the presence of the event or process) and
GIS (which is the capacity to assimilate different genres and scales of information indexed by time and place,
interlay them with a high degree of synchrony (also in time and place), and deliver combinations of intelligent
illustrations on demand). Alexander the Great, Napoleon and Hitler would have given half their domains to have
such a constellation of elements at their command; given that the foundation of modern civilization and dominant
ideologies rest on the prerequisite of empire-building, it is difficult to calmly read about remote sensing and GIS
without the words "RAW POWER!" jumping off the page.

However, it is essential to grasp he fact that, as designed and with the caliber of information strictly defined, the
three elements are interdependent. The failure of any one becomes a great setback to the successful performance
of the others. The writer witnessed this in the reactions of remote sensing and GIS specialists when the most recent
Landsat launch failed to achieve orbit.

Continuing with Perera and Tateishi: "Resource managers in Asia face a number of formidable land-use
problems.... The urgency of such major environmental issues as desertification, soil erosion, deforestation, drought
and locust plagues emphasizes the need for remote sensing and GIS technologies in Africa....

"Most of the problems in developing nations naturally link with the increase of the world population.... The
population in developing countries is expected to grow from 75.7 percent of the total world population in 1985 to
84.1 percent by 2025....(p37)"

"The weak contribution of the advanced technologies to development projects in the developing world is
connected directly with low national income and low resource allocation of the national education system.... Low
investment in the education system reflects a clear setback in the total academic level of the society...(p37)"

"On the technological side, remote sensing and GIS have various problems common to the entire world, but on
the application side the problems are much more severe in the developing world. These sciences which support
hardware and software have been developed mainly in the rich world over the last 30 years. Today, the developing
world is seeking to use those technologies for their planning and development programmes, although they are not
fully prepared to receive advancements mainly due to financial reasons.... For example, a database which can be
updated multi-temporarily needs the application of satellite data. The handling of such data is always a high cost
performing task. In most of the cases, obtaining digital satellite data is beyond the financial capability of the small
scale research organizations of the developing world. Geographical information systems have three important
components, computer hardware, application software modules, and a proper organizational context.... Only the
installation of the hardware, at minimum level, requires about ten thousand US$....(pp37-40)"

These passages emphasize three things: 1) weak investment in education, for whatever reasons, prevents the
use of crucial information even if it were available; 2) the information technologies that appear to be so essential to
the national development are largely products of wealthy societies, meaning their cost is generally beyond reason
for others; and 3) GIS systems have three basic elements, the least of which (the computer) is often unaffordable to
those in need. Continuing with Perera and Tateishi:

"The direct and most important barrier to the appearance of remote sensing and GIS to research activities of the
developing world is the lack of financial resources.... In most of the developing countries the per capita GNP does
not exceed the level of US$500. [note: because of extremely skewed income distribution in the Third World, per
capita GNP, like per capita income, even as shockingly low as they are, still overestimates the relative well-being of
the "average" citizen there; median per capita GNP or median per capita income would be closer to the truth, but it
is hardly ever expressed that way] Therefore, the annual budget of an individual institute, (e.g. the Geography
Department of a government university), of these countries after spending its regular expenses is not strong enough
to buy even a personal computer with a printer.... The geography departments of two leading universities, Sri Lanka
and Ethiopia, have reported the annual income of their departments as less than US$2000. In the Sri Lankan
market in 1993, a personal computer with graphic facilities costs about US$2000. Practically, it is economically
difficult to implement a GIS laboratory in most of the developing countries without foreign aids....(p40)"

"The lack of experts in handling and processing remote sensing and other data, computers and software,
designing GIS, and related technical matters has made a great limitation.... This scarcity is a serious problem in
Asian countries and in the African continent the situation is more critical... Most of the developing nations have no
strength to send their people abroad to be trained and have to be satisfied with various international training aid

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programmes....(p41)"

"The total success of the environmental and social development programmes in any society depends on the
degree of the contribution of all social sectors. Such kinds of contribution have to be achieved through a firm
circulation of information within the local society and with international societies. In most developing countries the
environmental problems and allied research related information flow among government institutions, universities,
private organizations and the general public is rather weak..... As a result of this situation, resource development
projects miss wide social and academic backing....

"In many countries, well planned environmental conservation projects, or resource management projects change
their methodologies or make alternatives in master plans due to the influence of political powers. On the other
hand, the power shift of the government among different political parties brings certain uneasy conditions and
sometimes critical changes occur in local and national level development plans. This is indirectly connected to
some of the previously discussed matters, such as weakness in information flows and general knowledge over
environmental aspects. Political changes or the behaviour of a country also make serious international effects. The
situation may lead to the opening or closure of resource flows to local universities and other institutions. As a single
example, a smooth diplomatic level discussion and compromise between Sri Lanka and India might influence the
reception of satellite data from Indian resource observation satellites to Sri Lanka (p43)."

With the foregoing comments, some of the fine structure of the barriers to full and protective use of remote
sensing and GIS begin to be seen. Reasons for refugee flows may not simply be, for example, that farmers' crops
were caught in a spell of uncompromising weather but, hypothetically, that their Agriculture Department who may
even have an inflow of climatic data, didn't know what their farmers had planted, or didn't get out the word that such
crops would likely fail if seasonal forecasts proved to be true.

The authors continue: "The total social system has to be fed with basic knowledge of the current environmental
problems, remote sensing, GIS, and the sustainable application of new technologies. This kind of basic introduction
must be reached by the general public through communication media. The possibility for such an introduction and
the required time duration are dependant on the literacy level, the size of the country the population, and the
government involvement of each developing country....

"The basic knowledge of remote sensing and GIS must be included in the general education system of developing
countries.... At the preliminary stage, these subjects can be added to the high school curriculum...as an extra
introductory course.... At least those who are studying geography at university level are taught the basics of remote
sensing and GIS, and special study courses can be introduced for final year courses....

"Technological development should...contain both new materials and optimum use of available resources. There
are very powerful PC-based image processing and GIS software on the market, such as ILWIS, SPANS, IDRISI,
PCArcInfo, ATLAS, and GEO SQL.... At the preliminary stage, hardware can be limited to a digitizer, a PC with
graphics facilities and large hard disk, and a dot matrix printer.... Digital satellite data (Landsat-MSS, -TM and
SOPT [SPOT?]) is relatively expensive but the cost of one full image scene of NOA AVHRR with 1 km resolution is
about ten times cheaper than MSS. NOAA data is suitable for studies based on large areas and as exercise data to
use with software....(pp44-46).

Thus, in the authors' words, "The total social system has to be fed with basic knowledge of the current
environmental problems, remote sensing, GIS, and the sustainable application of new technologies...." Not
achieving this means trouble for populations everywhere and environmental refugees are the classic symptom of
this trouble.

VI. REFUGEE-ENABLING FORECASTS USING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATIONS

An approach is envisioned that personally links remote sensing scientists and GIS specialists with environmental
refugee populations and with others who fear they soon become environmental refugees) and vice versa. The
refugees will be the source of "ground truth" information for trends seen from space by the scientists, and for other
data that can not be gathered by electronic sensors. This interlink will directly address and begin to eliminate the
shortcomings described above by Perera and Tateishi, and will provide scientists the opportunity to practice and
intensify their social responsibility, thus assuring the sustainability of their profession. The proposed system is called
REFUGEE, for "Refugee-Enabling Forecasts Using Global Environmental Evaluations". Two potential pilot projects
to initiate REFUGEE are suggested here:

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VII. THE "RATE AND DURATION" HYPOTHESIS

There are some general terms used to classify refugee episodes. Among them are terms such as "sudden onset"
and "slow-onset" which call attention to the time over which chains of events and processes culminate in refugee
flows. Sudden-onset episodes could relate to disastrous occurrences if a few moments in duration up to, say, a few
days, although there is no hard and fast definition. Earthquakes, hurricanes, industrial explosions contribute to
sudden-onset refugee episodes. Slow onset episodes relate to longer developments that are often normally
unperceived for most of its course, such as the buildup of groundwater contaminants in community water supplies,
sea level rise, mercury contamination of aquatic food chains, etc.

There are also terms used to describe the condition of refugees themselves as threatening developments unfold.
A term that keeps appearing is "destitute," which means that personal and collective resources to maintain health,
well-being, security, livelihood and freedom of choice to respond to changes in the overall environment (including
society) have been stripped away. Being destitute in the refugee sense is akin to being immunocompromised in the
medical sense; indeed many refugees are also immunocompromised.

Bad things happen when individuals and populations reach the "end of their rope." Internationally, especially in
industrialized countries, funds are withdrawn from government treasuries for people in officially-declared disaster
areas or for impoverished communities (oddly the numbers in both of these categories are growing). The reason
for this governmental response is minimally charitable and maximally for the maintenance of law and order.
Throughout history, when rulers turn their backs on the poor, revolutions happen. This can happen, in fact, even if
the rulers themselves have little to give in the way of material wealth and protection...which is an explanation for the
instability of governments in Third World countries.

If this is a realistic assessment, the timing of environmental refugee episodes could hypothetically depend on 1)
the rate of deterioration in living conditions and 2) the duration of deterioration, as both of these approach a state
where almost everyone could agree was intolerable, in other words, where they would have to flee. It is interesting
that, within the literature searched, there is very little on the rate of change in environmental conditions, and virtually
nothing said about what could be a threshold of intolerability. Mishra et al (1994) did observe an increase of 725
percent in salinity of a lake within their study area in northwest India; this occurred over approximately ten years.
Jacobberger-Jellison (1994) commented on small-scale environmental changes in grass cover in drought-prone
Mali, but commented, "Vegetation density is low compared with pre-drought observations, and while 'hard' long-
term-data have been elusive, direct observations by longtime residents suggest that species diversity has also been
reduced...." White (1994) generally discussed increasing human occupation of alluvial fans, where the probability of
flash floods is known to be high. Nageswara and Mohankumar (1994) commented on a range of changes
(decrease in irrigated land, increase in reservoir sediment, etc.). Rathore and Wright (1993) predict a "clear
escalation in open-cast or surface mining," an activity that is devastating to nearby communities and which often
entirely swallows up or obliterates them.

Each remote sensing database, whether it be from radar, various bands in the color spectrum, or other modes,
contains information on the historical and current quantitative dimensions of many environmental parameters. This
could conceivably be added to non-ecological data and organized through appropriate GIS to give 1) maps showing
the rate of deterioration of various indices in selected areas and 2) maps showing how close current indices are to
generally acceptable thresholds of intolerability. Both of these procedures would be backed up by anecdotal and
field measurement (or recollections) from refugees or refugee-prone populations. The result is that endangered
populations will know where they stand in reference to being at the end of their proverbial rope. This could apply to
landlocked as well as coastal populations, in rich as well as in poor countries.

VIII. DISAPPEARING ISLANDS OF THE WORLD

The writer was very intrigued by the articles of Rossi (1994) and Blyth (1994) who examined the use of synthetic
aperture radar (SAR) for water level and flood mapping research. This technique is presumably similar to that
described in Malcolm W. Browne's article, "Most precise gauge yet points to global warming: satellite data indicate
sea levels are rising around the world (New York Times, December 20, 1994, pC4).

Reading these have come after attending a startling presentation by Prof. Stephen P. Leatherman of the
University of Maryland's Laboratory for Coastal Research, and then reading some of his articles and commentary
on the future of island communities and small island states threatened by rising sea levels (see for example,
Leatherman 1992, 1994 and 1995).

8
 As technically difficult as it may be to derive maps from SAR, published photographs of its interferometric output
appear to be very persuasive, with the ability to distinguish very small differences in water level. It seems
reasonable to want to look into use of SAR interferometry and other radar techniques (all of which can apparently
penetrate cloud cover without affecting measurements) to try to estimate the time to inundation of inhabited islands,
to rank the islands' fate in some kind of time sequence (given various scenarios of interacting environmental, social
and economic influences), and to have island inhabitants supply collateral information that improves their islands
standing (giving them more time) or which worsens their island relative standing (which means critical decisions
must come sooner).

It is recognized that sea level rise alone will not determine when an island will be abandoned. Other factors
include sea level impact on the island's fresh water lens and the elevation of the lens, the possibility that stages
before actual inundation will make the inhabitants more vulnerable to storms, the economic wherewithal and the
temptation that brings to construct sea walls, the available of orderly relocation prior to actual crisis, etc. Therefore,
in this project, remote sensing would provide the sea level change data as a backstop, but other extensive
socioeconomic and political databases will have to be major GIS inputs.

IX. REFERENCES

Belward, Alan and Jan-Paul Malingreau. 1994. Detection and warnings in tropical ecosystems: fires and
deforestation. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp87-
92.
Blyth, Ken. 1994. The use of satellite radar for monitoring fluvial and coastal flooding. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural
Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp59-63.
Browne, Malcolm W. 1994. Most precise gauge yet points to global warming: satellite data indicate sea levels are
rising around the world. New York Times, December 20, pC4.
Cherlet, M. 1994. Remote sensing as an operational tool for desert locust habitat monitoring: realizations and
requirements. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp81-
86.
Defant, Marc J. 1991. Forecasting Vulcan's fury. The World & I, September, pp282-289.
Francis, P.W. 1994. The role of satellite remote sensing in volcanic hazard mitigation. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural
Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp17-21.
Girault, F. 1994. The use of numerical imagery and photogrammetric methods for the monitoring of unstable
slopes. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp51-53.
Gordenker, Leon. 1989. Early warning of refugee incidents. in Loescher, Gil, and Laila Monahan (eds), Refugees
and International Relations, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, pp355-371.
Grimes, D., A.G. Dugdale and J.R. Milford. 1990. Contribution of meteorological satellites to agriculture and
hydrological hazard warning in the semi-arid tropics. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing.
The Royal Academy, London. pp75-80.
Hunt, J.C.R. 1994. Forecasts and warnings of natural disasters and the roles of national and international agencies.
in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp26-33.
Karnieli, A. and H. Tsoar. 1995. Spectral reflectance of biogenic crust developed on desert dune sand along the
Israel-Egypt border. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 16:2, pp369-374.
Jacobberger-Jellison, P.A. 1994. Detection of post-drought environmental conditions in the Tombouctou region
[Mali]. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 15:16, pp3183-3197.
Jurgens, C. and M. Fander. 1993. Soil erosion assessment and simulation by means of SGEOS and ancillary digital
data. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 14:15, pp2847-2855.
Leatherman, Stephen P. 1992. Coastal land loss in the Chesapeake Bay region: an historical analog approach to
global change analysis. in The Regions and Global Warming. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford. pp17-27.
_____. 1994. Rising sea levels and small island states. Ecodesign, Jan., pp53-54.
_____, et al. 1995. Vanishing Lands: Sea Level, Society and Chesapeake Bay, Laboratory for Coastal Research,
University of Maryland, College Park. 47pp.
Lo, C.P. 1995. Automated population and dwelling unit estimation from high-resolution satellite images: a GIS
approach. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 16:1, pp17-34.
Lockwood, John P., Michael J. Abrams, Anne B. Kahle, and Vincent J. Realmuto. 1994. Applications of remote
sensing for the evaluation and mitigation of volcanic hazards: specific examples and recommendations. in G.
Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp54-58.
Longworth, Mike. 1994. Tropical cyclone experiences in Vanuatu. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote
Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp67-74.
Maselli, F., C. Conese, L. Petkov and M.A. Gilabert. 1993. Environmental monitoring and crop forecasting in the
Sahel through the use of NOAA [U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration] NDVI

9
 [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index] data. Case study: Niger 1986-89. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 14:18,
pp3471-3487.
Mishra, J.K., M.D. Joshi and R. Devi. 1994. Study of desertification process in Aravalli [India] environment using
remote sensing techniques. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 15:1, pp87-94.
Murphy, W. 1994. Remote sensing applications for seismic hazard assessment. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards
and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp34-38.
Nagarajkan, R., G.T. Marathe, and W.G. Collins. 1993. Identification of flood prone regions of Rapti river [India]
using temporal remotely-sensed data. Int. J. Remote Sensing. 14:7, pp1297-1303.
Nageswara Rao, P.P. and A. Mohankumar. 1994. Cropland inventory in the command area of Krishnarajasagar
project. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 15:6, pp1295-1305.
Perera, L. Kithsir, and Ryutaro Tateishi. 1995. Do remote sensing and GIS have a practical application to developing
countries? (including some Sri Lankan experiences). Int. J. Remote Sensing, 16:1, pp35-51.
Pickup, G. and V.H. Chewings. 1994. A grazing gradient approach to land degradation assessment in arid areas
from remotely-sensed data. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 153, pp597-617.
Rathore, C.S. and R. Wright. 1993. Monitoring environmental impacts of surface coal mining. Int. J. Remote
Sensing. 14:6, pp 1021-1042.
Rossi, Marc. 1994. Potential of SAR interferometry in assessment and prediction of natural hazards. in Natural
Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp39-43.
Silverstein, Martin E. 1992. Disasters: Your Right to Survive, Brassey's, Washington, D.C.
Singh, A.N. 1994. Monitoring change in the extent of salt-affected soils in northern India. Int. J. Remote Sensing,
15:16, pp3173-3182.
Soeters, R. and C.J. van Westen. 1994. Slope instability: the role of remote sensing and GIS in recognition, analysis
and zonation. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp44-
50.
Thiruvengadachari, S. and H.R. Gopalkrishna. 1993. An integrated PC environment for assessment of drought. Int.
J. Remote Sensing, 14:17, pp3201-3208.
Wadge, G. (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. 101pp.
Walter, Lewis. 1994. Natural hazard assessment and mitigation from space: the potential of remote sensing to meet
operational requirements. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy,
London. pp7-12.
White, Kevin. 1994. Assessing flood hazards in deserts using satellite imagery. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards
and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp64-66.
Williams, J.B. 1994. Direct reception of satellite data for in-country warning, monitoring and mitigation of natural
disasters in the developing world: the LARST approach. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote
Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp22-25.

X. LITERATURE SEARCH

A large number of scientific articles and were screened for their relevance to monitoring and documenting
conditions and changes leading, in the writer's opinion, to environmental refugees. The following excerpts were
selected to demonstrate the breadth of current interest and activity available from which a new application may
emerge. Each selection highlights the types of remote sensing tools used, the approach or approaches that have
been successful or would be the most likely to lead to success, any weaknesses or uncertainties found, and the
types of environmental assessment capabilities associated with each, according to the authors.
This was the writer's first ever literature search on remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS).
Where possible, an attempt was made to sort, decode and explain the large number of acronyms and technical
reporting conventions that appear to be inherent in the profession. Lacking a working familiarity with the
manipulations and analyses of data performed by the specialists reviewed, the writer paid more attention to how this
admittedly narrow range of remote sensing and GIS is, or may be capable of, directly serving the needs of actual or
potential environmental refugees. The selections are roughly grouped by types of ecological problems or threats to
human settlements.

XI. DESERTS

Grimes, D., A.G. Dugdale and J.R. Milford. 1990. Contribution of meteorological satellites to agriculture and
hydrological hazard warning in the semi-arid tropics. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The
Royal Academy, London. pp75-80:
"...With the overall programme of Local Applications of Remote Sensing Techniques (LARST), data from
Meteosat [European meteorological satellite] and NOAA [U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]
series of satellites are now used for flood prediction and drought monitoring in Africa....

10
 "Meteorological satellites give daily, global coverage in the visible (VIS), near infra-red and thermal infra-red (TIR)
bands. Spatial resolution ranges form about 1 km for the visible bands of the polar orbiting satellites to 5 km for the
thermal infra-red bands of the geostationary satellites; with corresponding image frequencies of 2 to 48 per day....
"At the University of Reading [UK], efforts have been made to develop methods for using the meteorological
satellite data for water balance studies in seasonally arid areas. This has led to operational applications in drought
monitoring and river flow forecasting in Africa....
"The most widely used operational satellite rainfall monitoring methods use TIR images to identify storm clouds
and ascribe a rain rate to these clouds. Most of these methods identify a threshold temperature such that clouds
with tops colder than the threshold can be assumed to be raining. The threshold temperature and rain-rate are
determined empirically....
"[For daily rainfall estimates over a particular location, averaging must be done on account of orbit changes.
Thus,] this restricts the satellite based approach to large catchments (larger than 10,000 [sq?] km). Furthermore,
there is a tendency for TIR rainfall values to underestimate extremely heavy rainfall. This is not a problem for
drought monitoring--but is more important if the purpose is flood warning.
"Work at Reading University has been focused on the Senegal and Nile rivers.... The satellite is better in some
parts of the season and worse in others.... Since 1992 there has been an operational flood warning system for the
Nile, based at Khartoum. The overall system was installed by Delft Hydraulics and used the TAMSAT [Tropical
Applications of Meteorology using SATellites and other data] methodology for rainfall estimation. So far the system
has operated successfully.
"Pest control. Many agricultural pests need specific soil moisture and temperature regimes for breeding. The
desert locust, for instance, requires about 20 mm of soil moisture for egg laying and hatching. This also gives
enough vegetation to support the emergent insects. Storm monitoring from Meteosat can indicate where surface
based teams can most usefully be deployed to carry out their surveys, and, if necessary, apply control measures
(Milford and Dugdale, 1990b)....
"Products from the meteorological satellites are already playing a role in mitigating the effects of drought, floods
and pests over tropical Africa. The main constraints on the extension of this work are the inability of the current
rainfall estimation methods to pick up unusual events and the poor representation of evaporation in the hydrological
and crop use models....
"Passive microwave data will become routinely available from polar orbiting meteorological satellites within the
next two or three years. This will give some information on moisture in the upper few centimetres of the soil and will
be capable of improving the rainfall estimates...."

Karnieli, A. and H. Tsoar. 1995. Spectral reflectance of biogenic crust developed on desert dune sand along the
Israel-Egypt border. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 16:2, pp369-374: "The effect of biogenic crust on imagery acquired by
spaceborne sensors is demonstrated. The crust consists mostly of microphytes such as cyanobacteria. The
macrophytes (higher vegetation) on the sand dunes are sparse and have a relatively low spectral reflectance
response. However, since a considerable portion of the ground is covered by this biogenic crust, (which has a
different spectral reflectance from that of the mobile sands), a sharp brightness contrast is created between the two
areas. It can be concluded that the well-known contrast between Sinai (Egypt) and the Negev (Israel), that has long
drawn the attention of many observers, is not a direct result of vegetation cover but is caused by an almost
complete cover of biogenic crust in the Negev, and a lack of this crust in Sinai, due largely to man's activities.
"Arid and semi-arid regions are characterized by sparse vegetation cover.... The soil background contributes a
different reflected signal than areas of dense vegetation which usually have relatively higher components....
"In the absence of a dense distribution of macrophytes (higher plants), much of the arid and semi-arid surfaces
are covered by microphytic communities of small non-vascular plants. These microphytic communities, containing
mosses, lichens, algae, fungi, cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), and bacteria, in various combinations, form
microphytic crusts over and within a wide range of soil and rock substrates....
"The Israel-Egypt political border is crossed by linear sand dunes of the same lithological unit. The border line is
characterized by a sharp contrast between the bright reflectance values from the Egyptian (Sinai) side and the dark
reflectance values from the Israeli (Negev) side.... The relative higher reflectance value on the Egyptian side of the
border has been interpreted as being caused by the severe anthropogenic impact of the Sinai Bedouin--especially
overgrazing by their black goat and sheep herds, as well as by gathering the plants for firewood (Tsoar and Moller
1986). On the other hand, the Israelian side has been under a strict conservation policy.
"Otterman (1974) observed the contrast at the Sinai-Negev boundary in the first Landsat image of the area taken
in 1972.... The contrast reported in that study was about the same in all spectral bands of the MSS, which included
two visible (500-700 nm) and two NIR (700-1100 nm) bands. It was claimed that the plant cover on the vegetated
side of the Negev does not exhibit characteristics common to green vegetation of non-arid regions. It was further
stated that green plants would have produced a Sinai/Negev contrast ratio much higher in the visible bands and in
particular in the MSS red band from 600 to 700 nm, where plant chlorophyll strongly absorbs radiation. The
contrast was therefore interpreted as effects of the dark plant debris littering the surface and shadowing (Otterman

11
et al. 1990)....
"The following mechanism is suggested (Tsoar 1990, Danin 1991): As a result of limited human and animal
activities in the Negev region, air-borne silt and clay, originating from adjacent deserts...have been deposited and
trapped by the vegetation and accumulated mainly in the interdune areas where vegetation is denser.
Cyanobacteria is also carried by the winds and once the fine material of the top layer exceeds 1.5-2 percent,
cyanobacteria communities may become established (Danin 1978). As a result of the gluey nature of the
cyanobacteria, the biogenic crust spreads with time, causing aggregation of more fine-grained soil particles,
covering areas larger than the interdune areas themselves. Finally, as in the Negev example, most of the area may
be overlaid with cyanobacteria crust and the active dunes are turned into stable sand fields. In contrast,
anthropogenic disturbance on the Egyptian side of the border prevents the crust form becoming established and the
dust from being deposited.
"Since the cyanobacteria has a lower spectral reflectance response than the pure sand (mostly above 600
nm)...the entire area of the Negev appears darker than the adjacent area in Sinai...."

Maselli, F., C. Conese, L. Petkov and M.A. Gilabert. 1993. Environmental monitoring and crop forecasting in the
Sahel through the use of NOAA [U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration] NDVI [Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index] data. Case study: Niger 1986-89. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 14:18, pp3471-3487:
"Several investigations have show that NOAA NDVI data accumulated during a rainy season can be related to
total rainfall or final primary productivity in the Sahel. However, serious problems can arise when looking for
quantitative relations to monitor and forecast crop yield from NDVI values.... The present paper proposes a
complete methodology of NDVI data processing which only utilizes NOAA AVHRR scenes from the first part of
successive rain seasons....
"The necessity for efficient, economical and real time monitoring of Earth resources is nowadays felt at a global
level, but is particularly vital in arid and semi-arid environments, which are critically dependent on meteorological
conditions to maintain their level of primary production. The most typical example of such environments is the
Sahel, which covers a wide strip of land corresponding to the transition zone between the Sahara desert to the
North and the African savanna to the South (Tucker et al. 1985)...
"Because of their characteristics of temporal frequency and spatial resolution, the data acquired by the NOAA
satellites with the AVHRR sensor at present provide the most efficient operational tool for real time assessment of
the Sahelian environment as a whole.... In particular, the use of the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI,
derived from the first two AVHRR channels has become a standard procedure, and a complete technical
methodology has been developed for it....
"Since vegetation in arid areas is extremely sensitive to the amount of rainfall, a marked correlation was expected
between NDVI and total precipitation....
"...The utilization of NDVI accumulated during as whole rainy season is generally impractical for forecasting
purposes. However, in the Sahelian area rainfall events are particularly variable in the first part of a rainy season,
and the length and intensity of this is mainly dependent on the date of the onset of rains (Sivakumar 1988, 1989). If
the rainy season begins late or with precipitation well below average there is no time for complete plant
development by the end of the season and final primary productivity is low. Thus, reasonable inferences about the
whole seasonal trend in an area could be made from the estimation of the relevant environmental situation by the
beginning of August....
"The processing sequence for the AVHRR images can be summarized as follows: [georeferencing and reduction
of the scenes, NDVI image generation, cloud masking, maximum value compositing, image normalization based on
pseudo-invariant features, temporal interpolation, computation of geographically averaged NDVI, and geographical
standardization of the original data]...
"...The major difficulty involved in the use of NDVI lies in the several environmental factors which can affect the
relation between the vegetation index and total productivity (terrain topography, soil types, different vegetation
associations and agricultural practices, etc). As seen, these influences can be partly removed by means of a
process of geographical standardization. In this way, the NDVI measured at the end of July has been found to be
strongly controlled by the precipitation of the first part of the rainy season and is also an approximate indicator of
final crop yield...."

Mishra, J.K., M.D. Joshi and R. Devi. 1994. Study of desertification process in Aravalli [India] environment using
remote sensing techniques. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 15:1, pp87-94. The Aravalli environment in the vicinity of the
Thar Desert in Rajasthan, India presents a clear picture of environmental degradation.... The approach adopted
here uses remote sensing as a tool for the study of desertification using data from Landsat and IRS-1A (India
Remote Sensing satellite).... A rigorous data analysis yields the extent of the environmental degradation which
appears to be quite alarming. Severe depletion in the area under the water and vegetation covers and accordingly
an increase in the saline and aeolinous [wind-blown] areas have been observed....
"Rapid ecological changes have taken place recently. This is due to the increase in the population and as a result

12
of the neglect and misuse of the environment. The present awakening on the role of environment has brought
some hope to the gloomy picture of environmental degradation. We now talk in terms of sustainable development
and not of the exploitation of natural resources.
"Remote Sensing is the latest technique to study, control and monitor environmental degradation. It is a more
efficient, reliable, time saving and cost-effective method than the conventional methods of land surveying. Recent
technological advancements in this field have enabled finer resolutions thereby widening the scope of its
applications....
"The intention of this study is to use remote sensing techniques to study the problem of desertification in the
Aravalli region, which lies in north-west India. Multi-spectral data from Landsat and the Indian Remote Sensing
Satellite (IURS-1A) for the period between 1975 and 1988, have been analysed. The IRS-1A (launched in March
1988) has three cameras. Each of the three cameras provide data in four spectral bands, three of which are in the
visible range (0.45-0.86 um) and the fourth in the near infra-red region. It has two linear imaging self scanning
systems, LISS I and LISS II, with spatial resolutions of 73 m and 37 m respectively. An effort has been made, in this
study, to keep the effect of the season at its minimal level. Therefore, as far as possible, the data for each year is
for nearly the same season (post-monsoon period)....
"...The satellite data has been combined with the available ground truth and hydro-meteorological data (rainfall)
for the analysis.... The Image Analyzer creates false colour images using three band data for visual displays only.
The PROCOMM-2 magnifies the imagery in the form of False Colour Composite (FCC) several times, without
significant loss in the contrast and sharpness of the original imagery. The image processing system uses the Earth
Resources Data Analysis System (ERDAS) software....
"In the FCCs shown, the water in the Sambhar lake appears black (central portion), the saline regions of the lake
(dried) bright white, the sand dunes/sheets in a yellowish-white colour and the vegetation/moisture as reddish
spots....
"There is a drastic decrease in the lake area over the years...around 66 percent [from 1975 -1986].... The
reduction in the vegetation cover...is clearly visible.... This reduction is possibly due partly to the decrease in the
moisture content of the soil and partly to the use of incorrect farming practices over the years (such as excessive
tilling of the land which results in loosening and thereby the drifting away of the top soil during the dry season)....
There is an increase in the saline regions...around the lake.... The increase between 1975-1986 is observed to be
more than 725.0 percent. The choking up of the River Medhna running along the south-westerly direction has been
observed. The decrease in the supply of water, absence of proper vegetation cover and gradual building up of
desert-like conditions are the main factors responsible for this feature. Gradual building up of the aeolinous
deposits in the eastern portion of the lake is highlighted by the presence of shining white colour on the pictures.
These are the shifting sand dunes and sand sheets which show higher reflectance because of their fine grained,
moisture-less particles. The area classified under them has also increased appreciably (around 30 per cent
increase)...."

Pickup, G. and V.H. Chewings. 1994. A grazing gradient approach to land degradation assessment in arid areas
form remotely-sensed data. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 153, pp597-617:
"Land degradation is difficult to asses in arid rangelands because of short-term variations in rainfall, landscape
diversity and the problems of sampling very large areas. This paper shows how vegetation cover index values
derived from multi-temporal remotely-sensed data can be used in association with spatial models of grazing impact
on landscapes to identify grazing-induced land degradation. The method assumes that grazing effects decrease
with distance from water and that temporary grazing impacts largely disappear as vegetation responds to major
rainfalls....
"While land degradation is often regarded as a major problem in Australia's arid and semi-arid grazing lands, little
is known of its true extent....
"Problems with survey methodology arise because the most accurate techniques involve intensive measurement
of soil or plant community properties (e.g., Froan et al. 1986). These techniques are too slow or too expensive for
use at more than a few points in the landscape yet may locations must be surveyed to represent the highly diverse
landscapes and large pastoral properties common in Australian rangelands....
"Another difficulty arises because natural processes can produce effects similar to grazing-induced land
degradation. The loss of vegetation cover which occurs, even in minor droughts, is regularly mistaken for the
effects of soil erosion yet the vegetation recovers after the rain. There are also complex spatial patterns in the
landscape which result from natural erosion....
"This paper presents the first stage of a method for land degradation assessment based on remotely-sensed data
which overcomes many of the problems associated with cost, repeatability and the need to survey large areas....
"Remotely-sensed data provide different information from that normally required for conventional ground-based
range condition and erosion assessment procedures. Plant species composition usually cannot be detected directly
from reflectance characteristics in a few spectral bands nor is it possible to recognise many types of erosional
feature such as rills, gullies or the effects of sheet flow because of inadequate spatial resolution. In most cases, the

13
only data which can be obtained from satellites are a set of vegetation indices whose values are related to
percentage vegetation cover, greenness and, to some extent, biomass (e.g., Graetz and Gentle 1982, McDaniel
and Haas 1982). Land degradation, therefore, must be defined in terms of one or more of these indices. In this
paper we use the PD54 index (Pickup et al. 1993) which is closely related to percentage cover in a wide range of
arid zone vegetation types and can be adjusted to reduce the effects of background soil differences on the cover
estimates. It is also relatively insensitive to differences in vegetation greenness which most other indices are not.
This is an advantage because variations in greenness can lead to substantial errors in estimates of percentage
vegetation cover form the commonly used indices....
"The ability to identify grazing gradients also has implications for improved forecasting of degradation risk...."

XII. DISASTERS IN GENERAL

Hunt, J.C.R. 1994. Forecasts and warnings of natural disasters and the roles of national and international agencies.
in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp26-33:
"Forecasts and warnings for natural disasters and the need for different types, including remotely sensed,
observations can be studied as three event classes: Extreme (Unstable) events, Large Fluctuating events and
Global Change events.... ...Remote sensing and satellite systems can be used very effectively..., [for example by
broadcasting] images on TV screens for conveying the seriousness of impending events, which people do not
always take seriously enough....
"We are concerned here with disasters to human communities and ecological systems which are seriously
damaged by natural events, to the extent that the communities cannot themselves adequately handle all the
consequences....
"...Extreme unstable events are phenomena that change rapidly over relatively small length scales, because they
are essentially manifestations of rapidly growing instabilities of geophysical "systems" at the Earth's surface [such as
earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tornadoes, hurricanes/cyclones], and distinct from those of the dominant
dynamical processes that take place on the longer length s[c]ales in these 'systems'....
"Whether these strong events lead to natural disasters depends very much on the vulnerability of the community,
to that particular set of events....
"...Large fluctuating events are those caused by the natural variability and chaotic behaviour of the complex
geophysical systems, on a larger scale and longer period than the extreme unstable events.... On the human
timescale, these events are usually meteorological, hydrological or oceanographic, rather than geological [such as
flooding, drought or oscillations in ocean-atmosphere temperature]....
"...Global change events [occur] over geological time as a result of astronomical and partly as a result of their own
development. The states of geophysical systems undergo large changes which in turn led to changes in frequency
in both types of natural disaster already described....
"Four main types of forecasts are required before, during and after natural disasters to provide warnings in order
to mitigate their effects on communities:
"Risk Assessment: ...from studies of past events of the underlying geophysical processes and of the vulnerability
of relevant communities at risk it is now possible to derive by calculation useful estimates of the probably of such
events occurring in particular areas and in different time intervals and recurring within given return periods....
"Forecasts for specific primary events: ...The satellite images of ocean cloud beginning to show the disc shape
characteristic of a tropical cyclone...[is an example] of the initial detection of a geophysical phenomenon that may
develop into a primary event and a 'natural disaster'.... It is [also] possible to forecast for a limited period events that
routinely occur within chaotic geophysical systems.... ...It is [also] possible to forecast the form of the natural
secondary events and the disaster consequences in relation to a specific primary event.... The essential
ingredient[s] for making these secondary forecasts are: i) Observations from the primary event and other relevant
geophysical data..., ii) Models to predict secondary events following the primary event... iii) Computational facilities
for using the data and the models, and a procedure for applying the computations to those secondary events that
are likely to lead to natural disasters. Computations are also necessary to estimated disaster consequences....
"Disasters often do not come singly, and just as often the natural conditions remain adverse, even after the
secondary events, caused by continued geological atmospheric, hydrological disturbances...."

Rossi, Marc. 1994. Potential of SAR interferometry in assessment and prediction of natural hazards. in Natural
Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp39-43:
"Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging techniques provide an excellent intrinsic geometric precision of a few
meters. However, this precision may be improved by three orders of magnitude when special conditions allow the
use of the radar wavelength (some millimetres) as a ranging tool, a technique called SAR interferometry. The
method is very accurate for small movement detection....
"SAR interferometry techniques are applied to radar images. They were introduced 20 years ago (Graham, 1974)
and demonstrated with spaceborne data at JPL [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in U.S.A.] (Zebker and Goldstein,

14
1986)....
"...The resolution in SAR images is achieved by sampling the echoes of the radar signal after reflection on the
ground. The resolution is therefore independent of the distance from the radar to the ground targets....
The radar sends and records a coherent signal, thus, each pixel in a SAR image is made up of a radiometric
value and a phase value. The radiometry is representative of the ground reflectivity at the wavelength of
observation. A conventional SAR image displays only the radiometry. The phase is a feature of the
electromagnetic microwave, which is usually expressed as an angle which rotates according to the round trip travel
time of the radar signal: the phase rotates 360 degrees each time increasing by one wavelength (5.6 centimetres for
ERS-1)[a European Remote Sensing Satellite]....
"If a second SAR image were acquired with the satellite exactly repeating the first track, then the phase difference
would directly record any displacements of the ground as the distance from the satellite to the ground changed.
The actual tracks are in fact never the same. Thus, the two SAR images have to be registered and the orbital and
topographic contributions have to be removed from the phase differences to allow the displacement
measurements....
"The phase measurements have typically an accuracy of about 10 to 20 degrees with ERS-1 data. Thus, the
ground displacements are measured with an accuracy of 1/20 to 1/40 of 2.8 centimetres, the half wavelength of
ERS-1. Therefore, one can hope to detect ground displacements with amplitude of 0.7 to 1.4 millimetres. Only the
component toward the satellite is measured....
"One of the most spectacular applications of interferometry is the ground displacement mapping of an
earthquake....
"[Tectonic] faults may generate surface ruptures during a major earthquake.... Otherwise, the two sides of the
fault may slip very slowly. The typical speed is in the order of a centimetre per year. Such small displacements are
inaccessible to conventional remote sensing techniques but are clearly detected with SAR interferometry
(Massonett et al., 1994). The only requirement is to wait a sufficiently long period of time, one year for instance, to
let the slip grow to a measurable size of some millimetres. Monitoring of fault creep...can help to detect potential
rupture regions and to model the tectonic behaviour of the ground.
"Landslides create another kind of ground displacement that SAR interferometry could measure....
"Flooding is not concerned with small displacements, but is determined by topography. The capability of SAR
interferometry to deliver a DEM [Digital Elevation Model] can help to identify the areas which might be affected by
flooding.... ...The "all weather" capability...allows DEMs to be produced in equatorial, cloud covered areas.... The
ability of SAR interferometry to produce digital elevation models with accuracy in the meter range may especially be
useful on fairly flat areas to identify the geographic extent of a potential flooding.
"Digital elevation models are used to determine the potential paths of mud or lava flows in the event of a volcanic
eruption. SAR interferometry can provide such DEMs, especially on volcanoes partially hidden by their plumes or
by a cloudy sky....
"Two civilian spaceborne SAR are currently operating: the European ERS-1 and the Japanese JERS-1, and two
more are going to be launched: the European ERS-2 and the Canadian RADARSAT. Those satellites have
interferometric capabilities although their missions were not dedicated to SAR interferometry. Thus, their
operational observations are constrained by the limited Earth coverage and the orbital repetitivity. For instance,
ERS-1 SAR data are not recorded on board, which limits the acquisition possibilities to the areas where the satellite
is in sight of a ground station. With the 35 day orbital cycle, one could have to wait up to one month to obtain a SAR
image over a given site....
The major limitation of SAR interferometry is the loss of coherence due either to the orbital geometry of the
acquisitions or to the ground surface changes....
"We assume that the coherence [also] decreases according to the proportion of targets changed in the ground
resolution cell. Some changes, such as those due to vegetation, have seasonal or daily variations. Other
causes...may be temporary (ground moisture following rain) or permanent (harvest, building)...."
[In discussion at the Natural Hazards conference, Dr. Rossi said that "about 16 hours on a 50 megaflop class
computer were required to process a 100 x 150 km area.]

Walter, Lewis. 1994. Natural hazard assessment and mitigation from space: the potential of remote sensing to meet
operational requirements. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London.
pp7-12:
"The utility and application of remote sensing to natural hazard assessment and mitigation are growing rapidly,....
Remote sensing techniques can be used in all three aspects of disaster management--vulnerability assessment,
warning, and damage assessment.... Many remote sensing applications (e.g., severe storm warning, drought
assessment) have already become operational....
"The rapid growth of the world's population and its increase concentration, often in hazardous environments, has
served to escalate both the frequency and severity of natural disasters. On the other hand, better tools are being
devised to meet this challenge....

15
 "These two considerations...gave rise, several years ago, to the proposal for an International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction. The fundamental principle of the IDNDR, which is currently being carried out by the United
Nations and its member states, is to provide a mechanism for the configuration and adoption of available
technologies for the improvement of disaster reduction.
"The purpose of this paper is to outline the use of satellite remote sensing in the assessment and mitigation of
natural hazards and to consider how these applications can be further developed.
"Developing counties generally find it more difficult to avoid disasters.... Rapid population growth and its
concentration, particularly in the urban environment, have also increased the frequency of disasters. More and
more people are living in coastal areas which are vulnerable to severe storms and storm surges.
"Broadly speaking, natural disasters can be divided into two major categories: slow- and rapid-onset. The
distinction is important in trying to match the observational frequency of a remote sensing system to operational
requirements....
"...from 1960 to 1989, the most costly disasters...were earthquakes (440,000 dead, $67 (US) thousand million
damage) followed by hurricanes (350,000 dead, $34 thousand million damage). ...The earthquake mortality is
dominated by the Beijing earthquake of 1976 which alone accounted for 242,000 deaths, and hurricane mortality is
skewed by the 1970 cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, the storm surge of which resulted in 300,000 deaths on the coast
of Bangladesh....
"Most organisations agree that, ideally, the most effective disaster management would focus first on prevention,
next on preparedness and lastly on relief. In practice, however, certain realities obviate the ideal. A cynical point of
view is that economics and/or self-interest militate against effective disaster prevention...
"Perhaps the most immediate contribution which remote sensing can make is to disaster prevention, primarily
because it imposes less stringent requirements on frequency of coverage.... Land cover and land use maps, at
ever-improving cartographic resolutions, are routinely available using satellite data....
"For disaster preparedness flood plain maps...are fundamental in producing flood warnings. In addition, real-time
input on other parameters such as rainfall (and soil moisture) are needed. Ground doppler radar data are also very
valuable for this purpose....
"Precise geodetic positioning based on laser ranging, very-long-baseline interferometry and, more recently the
Global Positioning System, has been used to map strain accumulation which may, eventually, contribute to a
capability for predicting earthquakes. Very recently, however, the ability of synthetic aperture radar interferometry to
observe and map very small earth movements has been demonstrated. Such products, obtained by precise
comparison of the return radar phase in two images taken days or weeks apart, have been used to investigate the
strain release after an earthquake....
"Using geosynchronous and polar-orbiting meteorological satellites, we can now track hurricanes and alert
coastal areas in danger....
"Disaster relief applications generally require both high spatial- as well as high temporal-resolution....
"A major consideration for development of remote sensing for disaster reduction is the extent to which operational
users can rely on a continued supply of data.. Of the types of satellites considered, meteorological satellites are
more often operational that is, there is a commitment to continually provide data with, at worst, minor interruption....
Although designed and operated to observe and forecast weather patterns, meteorological satellites have found
application in several other important disaster applications due generally to the high frequency of coverage and
moderate resolution. For example, short-wave infrared data are used to monitor vegetation and drought conditions
and the sudden vegetation growth which can give rise to desert locust swarms. Visible and thermal infrared
imagery from geosynchronous satellites are used to estimate rainfall and rainfall rates and passive microwave
systems on polar orbiting satellites yield data on soil moisture. Visible, thermal and ultra-violet data are used to
detect and track volcanic plumes which pose danger to jet aircraft....
"The greatest potential of currently operational Earth observation satellites (e.g., SPOT, Landsat) is in disaster
prevention (e.g., mapping volcanoes,...flood plain mapping, landslide vulnerability assessment) where the spatial
and temporal resolution characteristics are not limiting. In disaster warning, there have been some experiments in
which thermal state of volcanic craters has been monitored....
"The new synthetic aperture radar capability of ERS-1 and JERS-1 (and, in the future, Radarsat) will provide high
(ca. 15-20 m) spatial resolution while offering increased temporal resolution because of cloud-penetration. This
should greatly improve our capability to map the extent of flooding and the effects of volcanic eruptions and
landslides...."

Williams, J.B. 1994. Direct reception of satellite data for in-country warning, monitoring and mitigation of natural
disasters in the developing world: the LARST approach. in G. Wadge (ed). in Natural Hazards and Remote
Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp22-25:
"Remote sensing techniques can be used for a variety of practical hazard assessment and mitigation purposes in
developing countries, but are largely underutilized. The LARST approach group have developed practical and cost-
effective techniques to provide such information based on direct local reception of the data from free environmental

16
satellites. Applications include warning, monitoring and helping to mitigate the effects of many kinds of disasters
both natural and man-made: these include droughts, floods, storms, fires, pest plagues and volcanic eruptions.
"Natural hazard assessment and mitigation needs to be seen within the wider perspective of planetary
management....
"How do we ensure that useful information is available to the right people at the right time in a cost-effective and
reliable way?.... There are certain aspects of our current LARST activities which lead us to be guardedly optimistic
here. LARST stands for Local Application of Remote Sensing Techniques: the low-cost approach to receiving,
processing and using satellite data on the spot to assist with practical decision making, developed by an association
of groups led by NRI [Natural Resources Institute, Chatham, UK] and supported by ODA [Overseas Development
Agency]....
"Currently, besides the FAO [United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization] GIEWS/ARTEMIS [Global
Information and Early Warning System/Africa Real Time Environmental Monitoring Information Service]
continental/regional early warning systems, several countries in Africa are making use of LARST equipment to
receive METEOSAT [a European meteorological satellite] and NOAA [United States National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration] data to assist with early warning of potential hazards. These include i) Drought: Local
monitoring of rainstorm activity every 30 minutes using METEOSAT thermal infrared..., ii) Flood: Similarly,
METEOSAT monitoring of catchments can assist with useful flood warning..., iii) Storms: Local reception allows
severe storms to be tracked in real time...and warning alerts issued..., iv) Fires: Real-time fire monitoring by NOAA
and GOES [Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite] is eminently practical, v) Pests: ...cost effective local
monitoring of rainfall and habitat during recession periods for efficient patrolling and timely control when necessary.
Many of these pests...inhabit vast relatively sparsely populated arid and semi-arid regions where satellite remote
sensing should be by far the most appropriate monitoring technique..., vi) Volcanic [and] seismic: ...Here again the
value of remote sensing lies in its integration with other information for local response, vii) health risk: LARST is
beginning to explore how NOAA and METEOSAT data can be used to monitor rainfall and vegetation change as
proxy indicators for changes in associated disease vectors....
"Technically, a the future is glitteringly bright. Data from the new and more powerful fleets of satellites already
scheduled will enhance potential local disaster monitoring capabilities by leaps and bounds....
"If you require further information, write to the LARST group at NRI, Chatham Maritime, ME4 4TB, UK, Fax: 0634
880066/77."

XIII. DROUGHT

Jacobberger-Jellison, P.A. 1994. Detection of post-drought environmental conditions in the Tombouctou region
[Mali]. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 15:16, pp3183-3197:
"As a test of the sensitivity of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to evaluate small-scale environmental change
and post-drought recovery, a time series of TM images of the small, well-mapped region around Tombouctou, Mali
was analysed for change for the interval 1986-1988. Actual increases in vegetation measured during field work
differed for specific landforms, ranging from 5 percent on floodplain silts to a 40 percent increase in ephemeral
grass cover in stable dunes. This region is part of the Saharan-Sahelian fringe, where severe drought and
environmental degradation occurred between 1976 and 1985....
"The colour and brightness changes that occur in Sahelian environments can be divided into two functional
groups: 1) periodic changes, related to seasonal vegetation growth and soil moisture effects; and 2) aperiodic
changes, related to longer-term variations in land cover and soil condition....
"Tombouctou is...part of a region that is known to have suffered drought-related damage over the past thirty years.
Vegetation density is low compared with pre-drought observations, and while 'hard' long-term data have been
elusive, direct observations by longtime residents suggest that species diversity has also been reduced....
"...It seems that albedo [a composite indicator of vegetation cover, soil moisture and other factors related to land
condition and use (Otterman, 1974)] is the best simple indicator to monitor the relative environmental health of the
sparsely-vegetated Saharan fringe, if normalized to account for atmospheric effects....
"The apparent sufficiency of albedo as calculated here....for general monitoring of sensitive regions is important,
both because of the sensor saturation problem with TM band 5 for desert regions, and the marginal operating status
of Landsats-4 and -5 and the loss of Landsat-6. Although more sensitive monitoring of vegetation type and
phenology might be possible if all TM bands were available, the results presented here demonstrate that the
shorter-wavelength bands are sufficient to detect general vegetation cover, if not type or phenology....
"Vegetation indices (NDVI, SAVI and V-subL) were not accurate in representing vegetation trends....It is probable
that the NDVI fails because of the overwhelming contribution of soil brightness to spectral signature. The failure of
both the SAVI and V-subL may be due to uncertainties in choosing the constants and scaling factors required...."
Thiruvengadachari, S. and H.R. Gopalkrishna. 1993. An integrated PC environment for assessment of drought. Int.
J. Remote Sensing, 14:17, pp3201-3208:
"This article presents a brief overview of a software package--Integrated Database Environment for Assessment

17
of Drought (IDEA), primarily meant to provide operational assistance to the National Agricultural Drought
Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS 1990, Thiruvengadachari 1988) in the analyses and interpretation of
NDVI data derived from the NOAA [U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] AVHRR [Advanced
Very-High Resolution Radiometer] satellite sensor. It is a user-friendly, menu-driven, computer program integrating
satellite and ground databases with spreadsheets, statistical, graphical and mapping modules, thus making use of
the various utilities supported by each of these modules....
"The framework of the IDEA package is a shell written in DBASE-IV.... The shell controls and co-ordinates the
interactions between the user and the application software modules through a set of programs in such a way that
they appear as different options of a single large task....
"A weighting model was used to show relative drought proneness of the Karnataka taluks. Three ground
variables were taken into account, namely, percentage irrigation support, percentage of forested area, percentage
rainfed area and normal seasonal rainfall for each taluk. The basis for which taluk is relatively drought prone is
predicated on the following concepts: a) the higher the normal seasonal rainfall, the lower the drought proneness;
b) the higher the irrigation support, the lower the drought proneness; c) the higher the forest cover, the lower the
drought proneness; d) the higher the rainfed area, the higher the drought proneness....
"IDEA has been used in classifying taluks based on temporal characteristics of NDVI (Lloyd 1990) such as, time of
attaining threshold value (onset of greenness), maximum NDVI (peak growth), time between the threshold
occurrence and senescence (length of growing period), etc...."

XIV. EARTHQUAKES

Murphy, W. 1994. Remote sensing applications for seismic hazard assessment. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards
and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp34-38:
Remote sensing has been employed routinely in geological research to map faults and other aspects of geology.
In recent years studies of earthquake risk have used remote sensing to study fault morphology, segmentation and
activity. In addition to mapping geological structure, satellite imagery has an important role to play in the
assessment, and characterization of the ground....
"One of the principal uses of remote sensing has been the mapping of regional geological structure. Examples of
this kind of study in a seismically active area can be seen in the work of Cardamone et al (1976). Gutmanis et al.
(1985) used LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and Multispectral Scanner data to map faults in southern England. The
ability to look at texture over a wide area, and to distinguish different lithological units, has allowed investigation of
ancient and current crustal deformation....
"While remote sensing is useful for measuring fault displacements over periods appropriate to geological time,
monitoring on a year by year basis is beyond the current spatial resolutions of satellite based remote sensing.
The best 'remote' method for monitoring small crustal deformations is the use of global positioning systems or
geodetic measurements. Such techniques however fall into the sphere of surveying....
"Seismological instrumentation has only been in operation now for, at best, around 100 years. Good instrumental
coverage did not come into effect until the 1960s with the establishment of the Worldwide Standardized
Seismograph Network....
"[Evidence of] liquefaction...the complete loss of shear strength in a sand, or silty sand due to earthquake
shaking...[is] usually too small to be resolved by remotely sensed methods and are dominantly found by field
mapping. Landslides however present a better target for the evaluation of past earthquakes....
"The type of information required for the evaluation of site-specific seismic hazard is not normally collected by
remotely sensed data... The reason for this is that this process normally requires data on the distribution of soil
types at depth which remote sensing cannot yield. However, much of this information can be usefully stored in a
geographic information system (GIS) which can incorporate remotely sensed data....
"Clearly remote sensing has a powerful role to play in the location and mapping of the surface outcrop of active,
and inactive faults. However, while many current remote sensing platforms are limited by the spatial resolution, the
availability of high resolution radar imagery and high spectral and spatial resolution airborne imaging systems will
mean this limitation will disappear...."

XV. EROSION

Jurgens, C. and M. Fander. 1993. Soil erosion assessment and simulation by means of SGEOS and ancillary digital
data. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 14:15, pp2847-2855.
"This paper describes the use of remote sensing techniques and GIS applied in the field of soil erosion. Remote
sensing techniques have already been applied in this field....
"Satellite remote sensing has become more and more popular recently because of the synoptical view of large
areas...and the spectral and radiometric properties of modern Earth observation satellites.
"Since spaceborne sensors have a much poorer spatial resolution than aerial photographs they are unable to

18
show details which are relevant to soil erosion. However, we can use spaceborne satellite systems to evaluate the
long-term soil erosion rates, although we cannot study the impact of soil erosion for single events.
"By application of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)...we are able to determine the long-term soil erosion.
The land cover...is determined by a multi-temporal land-use classification of two satellite images.... The other
factors have been determined in the field...or by assistance of a digital elevation model....
"For this study system-corrected Landsat-TM data...have been purchased for the study area....
"At first the image data have been geocoded to a map 1:25,000.... This achieved accuracy of the geometric
correction and the image registration process is approximately 0.5 pixels....
"The classification accuracy is between 98 and 100 percent. very few wrongly classified pixels occurred in the
classification result....
"When all these data layers have been established in the GIS (as a map and in the data base), they can be
multiplied according to the USLE...."

XVI. FLOODS

Blyth, Ken. 1994. The use of satellite radar for monitoring fluvial and coastal flooding. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural
Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp59-63:
"In the past, satellite observations of floods have been hampered by the presence of clouds, and high resolution
satellite data have not been available in near real-time. Initial tests in the UK have shown he ERS-1 [European
remote sensing satellite] SAR [Synthetic Aperture Radar] to be a suitable sensor for flood mapping, and fast
delivery products can be obtained within hours of satellite acquisition....
"Each year, river and coastal flooding, worldwide, results in major loss of life and property....
"...The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) on the European ERS-1 satellite has been evaluated by the Institute of
Hydrology [Wallingford, UK[] for flood mapping.... For any satellite flood monitoring systems to be used to full
effect, it is essential that a good communication system with the user community be established and that adequate
training in the use of the data be given. An EC-European Space Agency sponsored project has recently been
established for flood monitoring in the Philippines....
"In terms of the numbers of people killed in disasters declared by the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance
during 1980-89, flooding is ranked 6th of the naturally occurring disasters. However, in terms of the numbers
directly affected by declared disasters, flooding is ranked 1st with almost 280 million people affected....
"The European Space Agency ERS-1 satellite carries a C-band synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) which is capable
of observation both at night and through cloud to maximise the possibility of capturing flood events. Each SAR
image covers an area 100 x 100 km which enables large river basins to be covered within a single frame at a
nominal spatial resolution of 30 m. The radar system is particularly well suited to the detection of temporal change
(such as floodwater extent) as a result of its good radiometric and geometric stability which allows time-series
images to be easily co-located and compared. Smooth water surfaces appear black on radar images because they
reflect most of the radar energy away from the sensor. This is in contrast to surrounding land features which
generally appear much lighter. Another additional advantage of using radar lies in the possibility of detecting
floodwater beneath some vegetation canopies. Whilst the ERS-1 cannot penetrate dense vegetation directly, gaps
in the canopy may allow reflectance from the water/vegetation interface often producing a bright radar return signal
(Hess et al., 1990)... Two levels of data products are relevant to flood monitoring. The SAR 'Fast Delivery' (FD)
product can be disseminated to primary user centres within 3 hours of acquisition.... The SAR 'Precision Image' is
better suited to temporal studies as the data are fully calibrated but data dissemination takes about 2 weeks.
"Disadvantages: the design of the ERS-1 microwave instruments was determined by the requirement to measure
ocean roughness and hence the selected frequency and polarisation of the SAR make it inherently sensitive to
wind-induced roughening of the water surface. For inland floodwater situations this can reduce the land/water
contrast during windy conditions and the possibility of this occurring should be kept in mind during interpretation of
radar data.... [Also]...in general the return period has been too infrequent for operational flood monitoring
purposes....
"The ability...to record floodwater extent was first tested over the River Thames, U.K, in December 1992 when an
ERS-1 overpass corresponded closely to the maximum flood level throughout much of the upper Thames River
network.... A light aircraft was used by the Institute of Hydrology to acquire a detailed photographic record of the
extent of floodwater within 2 hours of the ERS-1 overpass....
"Extensive flooding on the Mississippi River in July 1993 was first captured during a persistent cloudy period by the
ERS-1 SAR. Radarsat International, the distributors of ERS-1 data in the USA and Canada provided a number of
government organisations with processed SAR images within 24 hours of acquisition....
"As part of our ERS-1 Principal Investigator studies, the Institute of Hydrology received ERS-1 SAR images from
the European Space Agency of the extensive River Rhine floods of December 1993 and of the closely following
inundation of the Camargue wetlands in January 1994. The usefulness of time-series SAR data was evident in both
of these cases....

19
 "The EC-ASEAN ERS-1 Project has been set up as an EC/European Space Agency collaborative project with
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines to develop applications of ERS-1 radar data through 8 pilot
projects, one of the Philippines projects covering flood hazard assessment....
"...[In future launches] both Radarsat [Canada] and Envisat [European Community] will have steerable beam
SAR's...."

Nagarajkan, R., G.T. Marathe, and W.G. Collins. 1993. Identification of flood prone regions of Rapti river [India]
using temporal remotely-sensed data. Int. J. Remote Sensing. 14:7, pp1297-1303:
"River Rapti is a tributary of River Ghagra which is a major tributary of Ganga. After originating in the Central
Himalayas, River Rapti traverses the mountainous terrain and then suddenly plunges into the Gangetic alluvial
plain, where the river course attains base level of erosion.... The large scale deforestation in the lower Himalayan
ranges contribute large volumes of silt during the flood flows. When the silt laden waters of River Rapti enter the
flat Gangetic alluvial plain the diminished load carrying capacity is reflected in the large scale channel widening and
resultant channel migration.... The frequency of recurrence of the floods caused by channel migration has caused
severe hardships to populations situated along the banks of this river. If the location of possible channel migration
could be forecast, severity of resultant flood related damage could be appreciably reduced....
"Landsat MSS images acquired in years 1975, 1982 and 1983 and Landsat TM image of 1990 were used to form
a time series of flood related features of River Rapti....
"A PC-based image processing system with ICONOCLAST software was used in the digital image processing of
CCT data of 1983 and 1990.... The various landcover classes obtained include: river course, surface water
bodies..., cultivated lands, high moist areas, and vegetation. MSS band-4 and TM band-4 of 1983 and 1990
respectively were corrected and co-registered to detect changes occurring in the river courses during this period....
"Panchromatic B and W stereo aerial photographs on a scale of 1:15,000 were interpreted for demarcating the
surface water bodies, paleochannels and flood plain deposits....
"River course information from topographic sheets of 1972 and 1977 were analysed to detect channel course
changes....
"The river has abandoned its meanders and shifted towards the East.... The entire study area is filled with cut-off
meanders and ox-bow lakes. Careful mapping of these features led to the observation that cut-off meanders and
ox-bow lakes on the right bank of River Rapti are filled to a larger extent, while those along its right bank are
unfilled. This observation suggests that the river is presently shifting course towards the east....
"These results could be used in the identification of the river courses vulnerable to shift and floods. Similar studies
could be carried out elsewhere by using the same methodology.

White, Kevin. 1994. Assessing flood hazards in deserts using satellite imagery. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards
and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp64-66:
"...Using an example in southern Tunisia, this paper shows how satellite images can be used to map flood
hazards in deserts using standard image processing and GIS techniques, providing geomorphologists and
engineers with a method for undertaking large scale flood hazard surveys over desert terrain....
"Deserts cover one third of the world's land surface, and have experienced a growth in human population of 63%
between 1960 and 1974. By 1979, 15% (651 million) of the world's population lived in arid lands. This population is
increasingly urbanised, with dryland cities experiencing 4% annual growth from 1960 to 1970. Much of this
population increase concentrates on the piedmont (literally "mountain foot") zone, the surfaces that slope from
mountains (where development is limited by periodic inundation, unstable substrate, saline conditions, and shifting
dunes). Road and rail infrastructure linking these piedmont settlements also take advantage of the piedmont as a
corridor....
"Much of the piedmont zone is made up of alluvial fans, cone-shaped landforms radiating downslope from the
point where streams emerge from upland drainage basins....
"As outlined...piedmonts are the focus of mush of the development taking place in deserts. However, the
piedmont is crossed by numerous ephemeral channels, which experience intermittent torrential flows with high
energy conditions (flash floods) in response to heavy but infrequent rainfall. Some of the fastest developing areas
of the United States are located in the arid and semi-arid southwestern regions of the country where alluvial fans
occupy over 30% of the land area.... Large parts of [Los Angeles, San Diego, Tucson, Phoenix, Salt Lake City and
Las Vegas] are built on alluvial fans, and they experience frequent severe flooding causing extensive damage and
often loss of life....
"A subscene [in Tunisia] from a Landsat Thematic Mapper image....was processed... The TM3/1 ratio produces
an image of the gradually varying distribution of iron oxides... Examination of the DNs [?] in both depositional
washes and stone pavements identifies a suitable cut-off level to uniquely classify the wash areas... This produces
a map of flood risk. Subsequent processing is undertaken within a Geographic Information System (GIS)
environment...."

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XVII. FORESTS

Belward, Alan and Jan-Paul Malingreau. 1994. Detection and warnings in tropical ecosystems: fires and
deforestation. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp87-92:
"Sensors on meterological and earth observation satellites can provide regular local and global assessments of
vegetation fires and deforestation. Suitable images can be made available within minutes of satellite overpass.
These provide an up to date description of fuel condition, fire location and forest boundaries....
"Today remote sensing systems specifically tailored to the requirements of natural hazards detection do not exist;
the experience gained so far has been acquired, albeit at a slow pace, by addressing the issues with instruments
which were never designed for such a purpose. The case of fires in ecosystems and deforestation clearly illustrate
this situation.
"Tropical deforestation and vegetation fires are two hazards which, although more often man-made than natural,
have potentially disastrous consequences for humanity. The physical effects of removing the tropical forest cover
are quite profound....
"In the longer term, and from a global perspective deforestation should probably be viewed more as a disaster
than a hazard. Recent estimates are that deforestation is eliminating species at a rate on a par with the mass
extinctions at the end of the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic eras (Wilson, 1988)....
"Deforestation is also clearly implicated in the processes of climate change and global warming....
"Few terrestrial ecosystems are unaffected by fire. Deforestation fires either linked to commercial logging
operations or slash and burn agriculture are thought to be on the increase. Most of the world's savannahs are
affected by fire (in Africa alone, recent estimates are that some 75% of the savannah burns annually). 3.8 million
ha of temporal and boreal forests are destroyed by fire each year (exceptional events can far exceed this, for
example, in May 1987 fire burned 12 million ha of forest in northern China in a mere 21 days).
"...In 1990 the European Commission in collaboration with the European Space Agency established the TREES
project (TRopical Ecosystem and Environment observations by Satellite)....
"The work of the TREES project relies heavily on data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
(AVHRR) on board the United States' NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) meteorological
satellites (Kidwell, 1991). The AVHRR, despite it's name, is characterised by low spatial resolution, in the order of 1
km, but at least in theory, offers daily global coverage.... Various types of AVHRR-derived information can be
exploited for detecting deforestation features. Indeed, no single discriminator works throughout the tropics....
"Spectral contrasts between evergreen forest and the more seasonal replacement vegetation are usually greatest
towards the end of the dry (or at least drier) season...
"The AVHRR also has channels which record thermal information. Data from these too have proved of great
value in separating forest from non-forest. The greatest difference in surface temperature between the 'cool' forest
to the 'warm' open areas once again occurs during the dry season (Malingreau et al., 1989). The clearest contrast
between forest/non-forest is usually seen in the AVHRR's middle-infrared channel. This channel records a mixed
temperature-reflectance signal, hence emphasising both the temperature and reflectance increase as one goes
from forest to non-forest (Malingreau and Tucker, 1990)....
"The ability of the AVHRR to detect fires can only be described as fortuitous. This application was never foreseen
in the design of what is essentially a meteorological instrument. The middle infra-red channel use for fire detection
was originally designed for cloud top temperature measurements. Consequently, the sensor saturates at very low
temperatures, around 47 degrees C (Kennedy et al., 1994), i.e., the instrument is not capable of discriminating
between temperatures greater than this. One practical consequence of this is that very small fires can provide
enough energy to 'saturate' the sensor. Even though the spatial resolution is 1 km, savannah fires as small as 50
meters long have been detected with this instrument (Belward et al., 1993). On the negative side though, the low
temperature for sensor saturation causes problems for fire detection in 'hot' environments such as the northern
savannah/sahel margins....
"Finally on the subject of data, it is vital to remember that the analysis of low resolution data sets, such as the
AVHRR, must be validated using high resolution data provide by the Landsat and SPOT (Systeme Probatoire
d'Observation de la Terre (French remote sensing satellite)) satellites in combination with field visits....
"The authors are of the opinion that significant progress towards hazard assessment and mitigation will be
achieved only if a clear mandate is given to develop the technology in this specific direction. This should now be
considered in the context of a nascent 'environmental security' concept.

XVIII. IRRIGATION

Nageswara Rao, P.P. and A. Mohankumar. 1994. Cropland inventory in the command area of Krishnarajasagar
project. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 15:6, pp1295-1305:
"Irrigation is a vital input for agriculture. In several large irrigation projects in India, there is a tremendous scope for
greater utilization of the existing potential by taking appropriate land and water management practices.... Irrigation

21
projects in dry climatic regions are subject to a high variability of rainfall in their catchments resulting in uncertainties
over the water availability. This in turn affects the release of water on a particular time schedule and can lead to
inter-state disputes over water rights....
"Real-time monitoring is in practice only possible through satellite remote sensing. This technology makes a
significant difference to the quality of decision making for the command area development by providing objective
data that can resolve the mismatch in the information reported by the agriculture and irrigation departments and
assist in negotiating differences between contending states....
"The principal area under the supervision of the Krishnarajasagar Project includes the entire Mandya District,
Karnataka.... The greater part of the water in this command area is used for growing high water demand crops
such as sugarcane and rice instead of low water consumption crops like groundnut, soyabeans and chickpea.
"Remotely-sensed data used in the present study consisted of various scales and band combinations of Landsat-
MSS and -0TM, IRS-1A/LISS-II [India Remote Sensing satellite] and aerial photographs. Satellite data were used
for estimating the total area under irrigated crops, whereas the aerial photographs were used to evaluate the effect
of spatial resolution on the percentage of boundary pixels and the resultant accuracy of area estimation using
remote sensing....
"The dark tones observed on the red band (i.e., the 5th band of Landsat-MSS or the 3rd band of Landsat-TM),
colour changes, light-blue representing wet fallow fields and red representing green healthy crops), noted on
standard False Colour Composites (FCC) and the basic interpretation keys developed earlier were used to identify
the irrigated cropland. The acreage of irrigated cropland was measured with a dot-grid. The area irrigated by
surface water tanks was identified by blue and red colours associated with the supply area from each tank. Aquatic
weeds posed problems of delineation of the cropland. This problem was overcome by transferring the boundaries
of all the tanks in the study area from topographic maps to the interpreted map....
"The diapositives (FCC) of the 1973 pass of Landsat-MSS at 1:1 millon scale was enlarged to 1:500,000 and
1:250,000 scale using an Optical Reflecting Projector.... [The] scale [of 1:250,000] was found to be ideal for gross
estimation of the irrigated cropland... it can also be noted that while the area estimated at the district level...was
within 1.0 per cent of the area reported by DES [Karnataka State Directorate of Economics and Statistics], the
deviation was a high as 9.6 percent at taluk level.... The conclusion that emerges from the results obtained thus far
is that even if one goes for larger scales beyond 1:250,000 the accuracy of area estimates may not improve unless
the spatial resolution of the sensor is increased to resolve a mixed pixel into two separate parcels of irrigated and
non-irrigated cropland....
"A reduction [in irrigated area] of 6.1 percent using satellite data and 4.02 percent using DES data was observed
in the irrigated cropland between 19073 and 1986.... It was also found that the storage capacity of the reservoir had
decreased by about 2 percent over these years due to sedimentation (Manavalan et al. 1992). These factors,
together with an increasing trend of growing high water demanding crops such as sugarcane and rice, must have
reduced the chances of supplying adequate water to the farmers at the tail end of the canal system and therefore, a
reduction of the irrigated cropland was observed....
"Conclusions: i) Visual interpretation of false-colour composite images of satellite data of 70-80 m spatial
resolution could be used to produce accurate enough estimates of cropland under irrigation projects; ii) Sampling
techniques based on satellite data can provide a most economical and timely estimate of acreage under irrigation;
iii) IRS-1A/LISS-II sensor allows the identification of irrigated crops with a 90% accuracy; iv) Analysis of multi-
temporal data from the indigenous satellites of the IRS series allows monitoring of the regional use of the irrigated
water and thus can serve as a watch-dog for the command area management...."

XIX. LANDSLIDES

Girault, F. 1994. The use of numerical imagery and photogrammetric methods for the monitoring of unstable
slopes. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp51-53:
"The comparison and combination of high-resolution Digital Elevation Models and ortho-images generated from
multi-date stereo-photogrammetric aerial views, provides a powerful tool for the study of large ground movements,
e.g., landslides and creep....
"The monitoring of unstable slopes is based on the identification and definition of many different elements, such
as slope morphology, the morphology and size of affected areas, the apparent complexity of the movement,
geology of the site, the hydrological and climatic settings, and the historical context....
"Using interpolation software, it is possible to transform a fairly dense network of points defined by their
coordinates x, y and z, obtained from photogrammetry, into a file of elevation data according to a regular grid, called
a digital elevation model (DEM).... ...This method at present is only suitable for the study of ground movements of
great magnitude, but work is presently ongoing to make it applicable to small movements as well....

Soeters, R. and C.J. van Westen. 1994. Slope instability: the role of remote sensing and GIS in recognition, analysis
and zonation. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp44-50.

22
 "Although the occurrence of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods or hurricanes, can
be considered as unpreventable, the disastrous impact they have on society can largely be controlled through the
appropriate mitigation of their effects. Examples of this are found in the comparison of the great floods in
Bangladesh (1988), causing the death of 1410 people, with the Mississippi flood in the USA in 1993 (30 fatalities), or
the disaster caused by hurricanes in Bangladesh in 1990, with the successful mitigation of hurricane Andrew in
1992. Even more striking is the comparison between the Armenian earthquake of 1988 which, having a magnitude
of 6.9, had an estimated death toll of 25,000 to 100,000, with the recent earthquake in Los Angeles (M=6.8),
causing only 40 fatalities....
"For hazard zonation, as well as the risk assessment and the planning of relief operations the use of remote
sensing and geographic information systems is playing an important role....
"...It becomes clear that an effective application has to be built upon an integrated system, constituted by data
derived from several sources varying in sensor type, scale and time. Sequential aerial photography is essential in
the inventory of type and assessment of activity and processes. Environmental parameters and their (gradual)
changes are often best assessed and monitored by the stereoscopic study of satellite data....
"The present paper is based on an international research programme, with the ITC [International Institute for
Aerospace Surveys and Earth Sciences], the Colombian Geographical Institute (IGAC) and the French Geological
Service (BRGM) as operating agents and financially sponsored UNESCO [United Nations Educational, Scientific
and Cultural Organization], the European Union and the Dutch Ministry of Education and Science....
"...Essential steps to come to a prediction [about slope stability] are: a landslide inventory, giving the types of
landslides, their spatial distribution and their development through time, the analysis of the terrain conditions leading
to slope failures, the determination of the spatial variability of the causative factors, and the assignment of the
degree of likelihood that a slope failure will occur....
"The applicability of remote sensing data to landslide inventory depends on the spatial resolution of the images in
relation to the size of the features characterising slope failures. Comparison of the ground resolution cell of
remotely sensed images with the average values for different types of slope movements means that the scale of
1:25,000 should be considered as the smallest scale to analyse slope instability features....
"The photoscale necessary for the elaboration of a landslide inventory map implies that this technique can only be
applied at a profitable cost/benefit ratio in medium scale hazard zonations covering not too large areas....
"Stereo SPOT [Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Terre (French remote sensing satellite)] has been
successfully applied to terrain classification; creating terrain units homogeneous in geomorphic origin, lithology and
distribution of soils....
"The spectral information obtained by the multispectral sensors of earth observation satellites is particularly useful
in the mapping of the overall drainage conditions, the vegetation, land use and the human activity.... Multi-temporal
data, coupled to an acceptable spatial resolution (SPOT), opens also the possibilities for the monitoring of human
activity and the impact changes on the stability of slopes....
"The main advantage of the use of GIS in slope instability mapping relies on the possibility to superimpose a set of
factor maps and to analyse them in combination with a landslide occurrence map. Certain GIS systems allow also
for a smooth combination of digital geocoded remote sensing data with maps and other layers of data, which
implies that small scale thematic information available in remote sensing images can be related directly to the
landslide occurrence in the area obtained from large scale images or from the field....
"The other advantage of GIS is that complex computation techniques necessary in the crossing of several factor
maps and for table calculations, are feasible....
"One danger in the use of GIS is that too much emphasis is given to the mathematical or statistical data analysis
at the expense of the analysis by the expert during the data collection in the field and geared by local knowledge
and professional experience....
"The use of GIS implies on the other hand a more systematic data gathering, instead of experience-based
selective data collection. The power of the computer lies in computing and therefore the user is forced to work more
on a quantitative data input. ...All data have to be digitised, which turns out to be one of the most time consuming
and tiring jobs in the process of making a landslide hazard zonation....
"A training package has been developed, allowing earth scientists to gain experience with GIS and landslide
hazard zonation. The training package for Geographic Information Systems in Slope Instability Zonation (GISSIZ)
consists of a textbook, an exercise manual and 10 diskettes with a training data set, a tutorial version of a GIS and a
demonstration...."

XX. MINING

Rathore, C.S. and R. Wright. 1993. Monitoring environmental impacts of surface coal mining. Int. J. Remote
Sensing. 14:6, pp 1021-1042.
"...Mining in general, and coal mining in particular is one among many...activities that can produce significant
environmental impacts. Coal is an extremely valuable resource in meeting the energy needs of a growing

23
population. Paradoxically, from an environmental point of view, coal mining is a major habitat transforming activity
which has a number of detrimental environmental consequences....
"Environmental problems associated with coal mining are likely to cascade, with recent observations pointing
towards a clear escalation in open-cast or surface mining activity as compared to underground mining in the past.
In India by A.D. 2000, almost 75 percent of the total coal produced will be by open-cast methods. This is in sharp
contrast to about 75 percent of the total production by underground methods in the 1970s....
"A number of studies have applied satellite and aerial remote sensing data to investigate the environmental
impacts of open-cast mining....
"Chase and Petty (1973) was probably one of the earliest to report the utility of ERTS-1 MSS data in mapping land
disruption due to strip mining in...east-central Ohio. The study concluded that strip mines could be easily identified
on the ERTS-1 imagery without the aid of air photos or maps. Standing water could also be delineated in either
bands 6 or 7.... It was, however, not possible to identify reclamation work done near the site as it was barely
detectable on ERTS-1 imagery....
Areas under active mining or areas which have been abandoned can present special problems in digital
classification as a considerable amount of confusion is generated due to the similarity in spectral signatures of
mined surfaces and other cover types such as bare agricultural fields, barren or rocky surfaces, etc.... Anderson
and Schubert (1976) have used band ratioing (MSS band 5 and MSS band 7) successfully to delineate, map and
inventory the effects of strip mining in the Upper Potomac and Georges Creek basins of Maryland and West
Virginia.... [Later] the ratio of band 5/band 6 was found to have the least error and was subsequently used. The
average accuracy in preparing a surface mine inventory was determined to be greater than 92 percent after
comparing with aerial photographs of the area....
"Barr (1981) has provided a more holistic perception of surface mining operations by visualizing distinct stages
during a mining cycle.... It was observed that Landsat data were well suited for gathering preliminary information on
a number of environmental descriptors required for environmental impact analysis....
"...Landsat-MSS imagery was not found very suitable for large scale inventorying of mine wastes.... Peplies et al.
(1982) also found the use of Landsat data unsuitable for studying problems associated with abandoned coal
mines....
"Parks et al. (1987)...compared...the utility of MSS, TM and simulated SPOT data for studying surface mining
activity over central Pennsylvania.... Findings of this study suggested that MSS data was useful for large area
monitoring but unsuitable for identification of level 3 categories of the classification scheme [for example, to
discriminate mature from immature oak trees, dense from sparse conifers, graded versus ungraded land, and grass
cover versus tree cover]. Both simulated SPOT and TM data accurately identified level 3 categories and were
comparable to each other with TM having an advantage of higher spectral resolution over SPOT....
"...Due to the higher spatial resolution of TM, internal features of mines like haul roads, workshops, etc. were
clearly observable....
"Remote sensing in the thermal infra-red region has been particularly useful for detecting and monitoring surface
and sub-surface mine fires....
"Although thermal anomalies caused by mine fires were detectable,...areas of bare rock outcrops, which are hot
during the daytime, appeared warm on the daytime imagery creating confusion with areas of underground fires. In
contrast, water bodies appeared warm on the night-time imagery and created a similar confusion with mine fires.....
"...Repic et al (1991) have used narrow band multi-spectral video imagery to study acidity and metal
contamination (iron) at two water bodies at a surface coal mine in Clay County, Indiana, U.S.A.... The study
concludes that the yellow-green band [0.543 to 0.552 um] of the video imagery was most sensitive to pH and the
iron content of surface mine water and that it can be used to monitor iron contamination and acidity in coal strip
mine drainage areas....
"Barr (1981) has suggested that combining geological, geographical and Landsat derived information in the form
of a natural resource database holds great potential for monitoring mining areas.... Oberg et al (1992) have
monitored environmental impacts of oil shale mining in northwestern Estonia using Landsat-MSS and SPOT XS
data and have used the results of this analysis in a Geographical Information System.....

XXI. PEST

Cherlet, M. 1994. Remote sensing as an operational tool for desert locust habitat monitoring: realizations and
requirements. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp81-86:
"The Desert Locust, Schistocerca gregaria, is a recurrent major agricultural pest throughout Africa north of the
equator, the Near East and South West Asia. Significant upsurges occur usually following a sequence of
favourable rainfall, improving overall ecological conditions in remote desert areas. In these habitats, populations
can build up, gregarize and become large swarms, migrating over long distances....
"The recent plagues, from 1986-1989 and 1992-1993, demonstrated that this age-old pest is still a menacing
threat....

24
 Preventive control of locusts at an early stage of population development, i.e., upsurge prevention, is the current
policy adopted by locust-affected countries to ensure the sustainability of agro-pastoral systems in the arid areas....
Therefore, survey and forecasting operations are a vital part in the activities of the national locust units. FAO [United
Nations Food and Agricultural Organization] is assisting these by operating a global forecasting unit at the
headquarters in Rome....
"The immense geographical extent of the potential breeding areas and their location in desert regions which
negatively affects their accessibility, are serious constraints to maintaining a routine monitoring using conventional
ground and aerial surveys. Moreover, the erratic characteristic of eco-climatic events, significant for locust survival
and development, makes planning very difficult....
"Satellite based information is an exploitable source providing, on a real time basis, the necessary synoptic
knowledge on the status of the areas potentially favourable for locust breeding and development....
FAO consolidated experience and established, in cooperation with NASA [U.S. National Aeronautics and Space
Administration] Goddard Space Flight Center, the National Aerospace Laboratory of the Netherlands, and the
University of Reading, the ARTEMIS (Africa Real Time Environmental Monitoring Information System). This system
uses high frequency environmental satellite data to produce on a ten day and monthly basis images indicating
rainfall and vegetation development at a continental scale (Hielkema and van Herwaarden, 1993)....
"Locust forecasters have access to the following satellite image products: Cold Cloud Duration (CCD),...based on
Meteosat infra-red data...; Number of Rainfall Days (NRFD)...; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI):
indicates the amount of green biomass, [and] is based on NOAA AVHRR [Advanced High Resolution Radiometer]
channels 1 and 2, 4 km resolution data. These products have a spatial resolution of 7.6 km, meaning the smallest
detail is of 58 sq km (Hielkema, 1990)....
"Monitoring of vegetation status is an important asset since vegetation integrates prior climatological events.
Using the NDVI images at the low resolution of 7.6 km, it became clear very soon that this level of detail was not
sufficient to detect the relatively small patches of vegetation significant for locust development, throughout the
desert. Only major plant development can be detected at a late stage. This evaluation led to the use of the NOAA
AVHRR High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) 1.1 km resolution imagery....
"Full use of these data is hampered by uncertain reliability, especially in the low vegetation range with which locust
breeding areas are associated. Soil background reflection is an important disturbing factor....
"A study undertaken by FAO in the Tamesna area in Niger (Cherlet and Di Gregorio, 1993) proved that NOAA
HRPT data, when corrected using integrated ecological information, has the capacity to adequately monitor very
low vegetation cover in desert environments. A study on the spectral behaviour of plant associations and their
habitat soils proved that a simple model for correction of soil background can be applied....

XXII. POPULATION

Lo, C.P. 1995. Automated population and dwelling unit estimation from high-resolution satellite images: a GIS
approach. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 16:1, pp17-34:
"Methods were developed to extract population and dwelling unit data from a high-resolution multi-spectral SPOT
[Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Terre (French remote sensing satellite)] image using an integrated digital
image analysis and GIS approach for the Hong Kong metropolitan area, which is characterized by high population
densities and mixed land use located in multi-functional structures....
"The availability of accurate and timely population census data is essential to planning at national, regional, and
local levels for both developed and developing countries. Unfortunately, the conventional population census is
expensive, and is normally conducted only every ten years. In some developing countries, such regular population
censuses are not affordable. Even for the developed countries, decennial census data have to be frequently
updated to meet changing conditions brought about by natural increases and migration. Remote sensing has
provided a low-cost approach to generate population estimates. Aerial photography is particularly effective for this
purpose (Lo and Chan, 1980)....
"In previous research, low-resolution satellite images, notably Landsat-MSS images with a spatial resolution of 79
m, have been successfully employed to estimate the population of cities in China with the aid of the allometric
growth model (Lo and Welch 1977). However, for small area population estimation, only Iisaka and Hegedus
(1982) attempted to use the spectral radiance values of the four MSS bands to estimate population...
"Since 21 February 1986 when the first SPOT imaging satellite was launched, 20-m spatial resolution multi-
spectral scanner data in three spectral bands (0.50-0.59 um, 0.61-0.68 um and 0.79-0.89 um) have become
available. Because of its better spatial resolution, each SPOT image pixel covers a much smaller area on the
ground [than Landsat-MSS]...
"The study area selected for this research is the part of the metropolitan area of Hong Kong known as Kowloon,
located on the Kowloon peninsula. Kowloon has the most complex variety of land-use/cover, which provides a
genuine challenge to the population estimation methodology....
"In 1986, the Kowloon metropolitan area had a population of 2,299,458, or about 42.6 percent of the total

25
population of Hong Kong (Census and Statistics Department 1987).... Kowloon contains the highest population
density district of Hong Kong known as Mong Kok with a density of 139,000 people per square kilometer in 1986....
"The 44 complete Tertiary Planning Units (TPU) which covered the study area were first digitized with the aid of
the pc ARC/INFO programme, and then converted into the raster format for processing by IDRISI.... The IDRISI
GIS was used to extract the area of each TPU and the associated mean spectral radiance values of the three bands
of the SPOT data....
"The...method relies on the estimation of population or dwelling unit densities covering the whole TPU which
realistically exhibits a mixture of residential and non-residential uses....
"The IDRISI software package allows digital image analysis to be carried out. A supervised classification with the
maximum likelihood method was employed to classify the SPOT multi-spectral image data of the study area into
eight classes of land use/cover: 1) high density residential, 2) low density residential, 3) water, 4) industrial, 5)
vacant, 6) woodland, 7) government, and 8) recreational uses....
"Population estimated for the whole study area...[ranged from] 1,545,259 to 1,747,071. When compared with the
actual population of 1,519,525 obtained by the Census, the relative error of population estimate for the whole study
area is only 1.69 per cent....
"However, if we examine the population estimates at the individual TPU level, great fluctuations in accuracy
occur....
"...There is a tendency for all these methods to overestimate. On the whole, these methods estimate dwelling
units more accurately than population...."

XXIII. SALINIZATION

Singh, A.N. 1994. Monitoring change in the extent of salt-affected soils in northern India. Int. J. Remote Sensing,
15:16, pp3173-3182:
"A large area of barren salt-affected soils has been reclaimed in recent years in the Ganges Plains of Uttar
Pradesh, India. Increased canal irrigation in the area, on the other hand, is also leading to salinization of new areas.
A study was conducted using aerial photographs and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to monitor change in the
status of salt-affected soils in the Kanpur district of Uttar Pradesh....
"Salt-affected soils have been reported to occupy approximately 7,000,000 ha in India, a major portion of which
lies in the Ganges Plains. Mapping of these soils in some states of the Plains has been carried out recently using
satellite data.... However, the extent of these soils does not remain constant over time.... The remote sensing
technique, with its advantage of repetitive data gathering capability, has been reported to be helpful in monitoring
such changes occurring in both time and space....
"Landsat TM data...collected on 2 March 1986 were used in this study.... In some blocks, two classes of salt-
affected soils, viz. severely salt affected and moderately salt affected, could be distinguished based on the colour
variation of the image. Severely salt-affected soils have thick salt efflorescence on the surface and appear on the
FCC [False Colour Composites] as white patches of different dimensions in a magenta background of cultivated
normal soils. Moderately salt-affected soils occupy local depressions and appear light bluish-green in colour on the
FCC. Field visits were made for ground verification.... The Landsat based salt-affected soil maps...were then
transferred on to a base map prepared on 1:50,000 scale, using Survey of India topographical sheets.....

XXIV. STORMS

Longworth, Mike. 1994. Tropical cyclone experiences in Vanuatu. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote
Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp67-74:
"Tropical cyclones are one of nature's most disastrous natural events. With the assistance of the World
Meterological Organization, the nations of the South West Pacific have formed a Tropical Cyclone Committee
(TCC) whose aim is to minimize the loss of life, human suffering and damage caused by tropical cyclones.....
"...In the SW Pacific Tropical Cyclone is generic term to describe a non-frontal cyclone of synoptic scale
developing over tropical waters and having definite organised wind circulation with a[n] average wind speed at its
center of 34-47 knots, 63-87 kph or more. Thus you can have a tropical cyclone with gale force winds (34-47 knots,
63-87 kph) ..a tropical cyclone with storm force winds (48-63 knots, 88-117 kph) ...and a tropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds (64 knots (118 kph) or greater)....
"Vanuatu is a Y-shaped chain of 14 largish islands plus another 60 smaller ones...extending over some 1200 km.
Its nearest neighbours are the Solomon Islands (170 km to the north), New Caledonia (230 km to the south-west)
and Fiji (800 km to the east). Vanuatu's population in 1990 was some 155,000--the vast majority (94%) being
indigenous Melanesians (termed ni-Vanuatu).... The economy is essentially one of subsistence agriculture (mainly
copra), but in recent years has branched out into tourism, off-shore banking and meat production....
"I went to Vanuatu in 1985-1992 to take up the position as Director of the Vanuatu Meteorological Service...
"[A] tropical cyclone warning system...is not just the matter of a meteorologist writing a warning and saying 'that's

26
my job done, I can go home now!'. The warning itself is only part of the system--and in many respects only a minor
part! [There are]...surface reports...ship reports...[and] aircraft reports.... The one giant leap for mankind (well at
least those threatened by tropical cyclones) was the introduction in the mid-1960's of weather satellites...[which]
provide routine visual and IR [infra-red] pictures of cloud development plus land- an sea-surface temperature
details, usually every 3 or 6 hours....
"Weather radars do also provide detail of rainfall rates but are really confined to the more affluent nations of the
region--Australia in particular has a very comprehensive coast radar network....
"Basically therefore the SW Pacific is a data-sparse area. The same could be said of most of the tropical cyclone
development areas....
"We now come to the events of February 1987 and the (infamous) tropical cyclone Uma. This cyclone of 4-11
February 1987--was the most serious to affect the Republic of Vanuatu for some 30 years. It affected the capital
Port Vila and was of hurricane force--mean winds of 90 knots, gusts to 130 knots....
"When it became a tropical cyclone, warnings were issued to Vanuatu.... On Sunday morning devastation lay all
around. Houses and property destroyed, crops ruined, no electricity (it was to be off for 3 weeks), and worst of all,
30 people dead--mainly (as is the norm with tropical cyclones) water related....
"...We began to ask ourselves some questions. 'Who were our audience?'. Now, the population of Vanuatu was
about 150,000, with some 30,000 living in the two major townships of Port Vila and Luganville. These represented
only some 20% of the population. Thus the majority of the population, 80%, was the ni-Vanuatu living in the bush.
They were our real audience.
"Next we asked 'Do they get our messages?' We were assured by Radio Vanuatu that 'yes they did--everyone
listened to our news broadcasts'. That seemed acceptable for the time being. Next, 'Do they understand our
messages?'. 'Don't know' was the answer....
"[In meetings with people] we asked if all could receive Radio Vanuatu.... Answer 'yes'--this supported views
expressed by Director of Media Services--but when the question 'do you always listen to the midday news?' [was
asked], a different answer was received--'not always--the (short-wave) reception is frequently bad--much better in
the evening'. This came as a bit of a shock....

XXV. VOLCANOES

Defant, Marc J. 1991. Forecasting Vulcan's Fury. The World & I, September, pp282-289:
"...Predicting a volcanic eruption is a particularly inexact science because of the immense number of variables that
play a role as the mountain comes to life....
"Most volcanic eruptions are preceded by changes that can be monitored by geophysical and geochemical
instrumentation. Data from the trembling and deformation of the ground are probably the most reliable parameters
used in predicting volcanic events. There is also great promise with monitoring techniques that measure, over a
period of time, the variations in the kinds of gases that come out of a volcano, and also the rate at which they are
emitted. These gases are usually composed of sulfur dioxide, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, radon, mercury, and
helium....
"The new Global Positioning System (GPS) that uses satellites to accurately determine longitude, latitude, and
elevation has been successfully employed to monitor ground deformation. The GPS data collected from the Teshi
volcano in Japan allowed a team of Japanese scientists to locate the zone of magma migration during a series of
eruptions in July 1989....
"...Qualified scientists have made forecasts that have gone unheeded. On October 7, 1985, Italian volcanologists
completed a volcanic hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia, which had been erupting periodically
since late in 1984. On the same day, a front page article in La Patria, the newspaper of Manizales at the base of
the mountain, complained that this map would devalue real estate. Only 10 copies of the map were distributed,
even though it showed that the city of Armero had a 100 percent probability of being destroyed by devastating
mudflows called lahars. Some officials in Bogota criticized the map for being too alarming, but a public
presentation of a revised hazard map was planned for November 15.
"On the afternoon of November 13, Nevado del Ruiz erupted, spewing ash over the countryside. The local
emergency committee was informed immediately by the Red Cross and Defensa Civil. They gathered and decided
to telex alerts to police headquarters 'to prepare for mudflows and floods.' Specific instructions were given to 'sound
the alarm--if necessary--in the lower reaches of the rivers and at local Red Cross headquarters.' Local officials in
Armero were alerted by early evening but decided not to evacuate.
"At 9 o'clock that evening, at least four extremely hot clouds of ash, termed pyroclastic flows, were blown out
laterally across the glaciers at the top of Nevado del Ruiz. The immense amount of water released when much of
the ice melted picked up large quantities of ash on the 27-mile trip down the mountain to Armero.
"At that precise moment the mayor of Armero was at the local radio station, asking the 21,000 citizens of Armero
not to leave their homes. He was killed along with 25,000 other people throughout the region--70 percent of the
population. Ironically, 70 percent of the citizens of Armero died in 1845 when it was destroyed by a similar lahar...."

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 Francis, P.W. 1994. The role of satellite remote sensing in volcanic hazard mitigation. in G. Wadge (ed). Natural
Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp17-21: "Most natural hazards are clearly
identifiable phenomena. For example, floods, the commonest natural disasters, are self-descriptive, while
earthquakes invariably entail destruction of buildings by seismic waves. Volcanic eruptions, however, present far
more diverse hazards. In numerical terms, the largest number of casualties have been caused by massive
tsunamis generated by edifice failure, or sudden emplacement of erupted material into the sea. This happened at
Krakatau in 1883, and Tambora in 1815. In each case, tens of thousands of people died when tsunamis ravaged
the coasts of Indonesia....
"While monitoring of volcanoes by satellite is not yet routine, we can expect dramatic changes in our capabilities
over the next few years. Remote sensing can contribute in several ways to the mitigation of volcanic hazard....
"Several different types of satellite data are available for civilian applications: 1) High spatial resolution sensors
primarily designed for agricultural, mineral resources and environmental remote sensing surveys. These typically
have resolutions of 10-30 m and work in visible near infrared (VNIR) and short wavelength infrared (SWIR) parts of
the spectrum. An example is the American Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). 2) Synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
sensors were initially designed mostly for oceanographic work and studies of ice distributions in high latitudes, but
have many other applications, notably in topographic mapping. They have the enormous advantage that they can
"see through" the cloud cover.... An example is the European remote sensing satellite ERS-1. 3) Sensors aboard
satellites used for routine worldwide weather observations provide the most widely accessible data. These work in
both visible and thermal infra-red parts of the spectrum and have low spacial resolutions (1-several km), but
whereas high resolution remote sensing satellites typically provide coverage of an individual volcano only once
every 5-16 days, meterological satellites may provide data as often as every 30 minutes....
"Because satellites are constantly in orbit, they uniquely offer the opportunity to initiate monitoring of any volcano
in the world at short notice, or even retrospectively, using archived data sets....
"Satellite sensors scan the spectrum from ultraviolet to microwave. This means that independent parameters can
be monitored simultaneously...greatly enhancing the value of the data....
"Characterisation of the likely future behaviour of a volcano requires identification of previous patterns of its
eruptive activity.... Morphological and spectral data from satellites can be used to infer the compositions of existing
lava flows, and the gross structural or magmatic evolution of the volcanoes....
"In remote regions satellite monitoring may provide the only evidence of eruptions. Fernandina (Volcan Cumbres,
Galapagos islands) was in 1968 the site of the largest caldera collapse event on a basaltic volcano in history; some
1-2 cu km of material being engulfed. SPOT images...were used to document the collapse of the event and
subsequent eruption....
"Multispectral sensors such as Landsat TM carried aboard standard remote sensing satellites are designed to
work in the visible, short-wavelength infrared and thermal infrared. Fortuitously, these sensors are capable of
detecting emitted thermal radiation from hot sources such as volcanoes, as well as reflected and re-radiated solar
energy.
"Infrared sensors are extremely sensitive. Thus, the short wavelength infra-red detectors on the Landsat TM at an
altitude of 705 km are capable of detecting unambiguously the radiant thermal flux from a 1000 degree Celsius
source only 0.1 sq m in area.... similarly, in the thermal infra-red it is possible to detect changes in surface
temperature of a few tenths of a degree Celsius...
"If two or more bands of data are available, it is possible to derive temperature and size estimates of thermal
anomalies far smaller than the size of a pixel....
"Volcanic gas flux and chemistry are sensitive indices of the magmatic evolution of active volcanoes.... The
residence time of acid aerosols in the stratosphere is long (many months), and thus the scattering to space and
absorption of incident solar radiation.... Satellite monitoring is thus called on to track separately the silicate, gas and
aerosol components of eruption plumes....
"Remotely sensed data can be employed to help provide management information concerning volcanic hazards
before crises arise. Hazard maps can be compiled form data on the location, magnitude and frequency of previous
events and their spatial relationship to human habitation and communications....
"Rather than forecasting volcanic eruptions, most effort to date has been ad hoc, and involved 'hindcasting'--that
is, looking back at archived remotely sense data for an event.... This situation arises partly because satellite data
are currently too expensive to be routinely useful...."

Lockwood, John P., Michael J. Abrams, Ann B. Hahle, and Vincent J. Realmuto. 1994. Applications of remote
sensing for the evaluation and mitigation of volcanic hazards: specific examples and recommendations. in G.
Wadge (ed). Natural Hazards and Remote Sensing. The Royal Academy, London. pp54-58.
"A substantial percentage of the Earth's population lives in areas vulnerable to the negative impacts of future
volcanic activity. These impacts vary from the nuisance of light ashfall to the potential for catastrophic devastation
of areas presently inhabited by tens of millions of people. Remote sensing technologies offer great promise for

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mitigation of future risk in two ways: lives can be saved in the short-term by the prediction of impending hazardous
activity and by the monitoring of eruptions in progress, and risk to life and property can be lessened in the long-term
by the identification of areas and populations most at risk and by subsequent wise land planning.
"...Society's interest in volcanic hazards waxes and wanes as a function of the elapsed time since the last major
eruption.... But the hazards themselves (actual volcanic events) do not lessen, and the volcanic risks (the number
of people and value of property threatened) increase with time....
"[per Tom Simkin, Smithsonian Institution's 'world's foremost keeper of volcano statistics']: 'Human populations
grow dramatically while volcanism shows no sign of slowing down, ensuring that volcanic hazards will be a
continuing problem for the future.'
"...In vulcanology, study of past eruptive behaviour is the only basis on which to make forecasts of long-term future
behavior. Studies of volcano histories involve three basic needs: 1) accurate geologic maps showing the distribution
of the products of past eruptions, 2) information on how these products formed and the stratigraphic relations
between them, and 3) the obtaining of ages of the mapped units in order to understand the frequency of past
activity. Remote sensing tools can be used for each of these studies, primarily as an aid to careful field
investigations.
"Aerial photography has been a standard geological mapping tool for over half a century, but recent utilization of
infra-red photography has depicted features not visible in conventional wavelengths. Digital remote sensing of
thermal infra-red radiation from young volcanic rock surfaces in Hawaii using the airborne NASA [U.S. National
Aeronautics and Space Administration] TIMS sensor (Thermal Infra-red Multispectral Scanner) showed that relative
ages of flows can be determined from different spectral patterns....
"Landsat TM [Thematic Mapper (sensor on Landsat)] images have proven useful in evaluating...geologic structure
for 'first-cut' volcanic hazards studies. Satellite-derived imagery is particularly useful for reconnaissance mapping of
volcanoes which are not easily accessible, and for assessment of vegetation anomalies which may be best viewed
outside the normal visual spectrum of conventional aerial photography....
"The remote sensing community is mostly composed of academic researchers, who commonly publish
statements such as 'If anomalous thermal changes are noted, local authorities will be contacted.' In reality, few of
the remote sensing experts who are able to obtain and interpret the anomalous data know who the 'responsible
authorities' are, fewer know how to actually contact them, and almost none speak a common technical language to
converse with those who must make actual emergency decisions. Remotely sensed data are only obtained
infrequently, and are rarely looked at with any degree of urgency (unless alerted to a specific problem area). Most
hazards assessments have been made after the fact, long after the disaster has occurred.
"An exception was during the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 [on Philippines], where excellent remote sensing
resources were made available by the U.S. Air Force, because of the severe threat to major U.S. military bases....
"[An] example of failed communications, with terribly tragic results, involved the 1985 eruption of Ruiz volcano in
Columbia. the break-down of communications between Civil Defense authorities and those who obtained and
evaluated traditional monitoring data illustrates the communications problem well, even though remote sensing
technologies did not play a role in the outcome of this particular eruption. Ruiz gave over a year of warning before it
erupted in November, 1985, and volcanologists from around the world came to install monitoring systems and to
assist Columbian agencies evaluate hazards for the expected eruption. It was recognized that volcanic mudflows
(lahars) represented the most serious threat to life, and a very accurate map of threatened areas was published in
October. This showed that the city of Armero, located far to the east of Ruiz, lay directly in the potential path of
destructive lahars. When the eruption began on November 13, sirens were eventually sounded in the city of
Armero, but confusion reigned and some authorities urged citizens to not 'pay attention to false alarms.' More than
six hours elapsed from the beginning of the eruption to the time when the lahars poured into the city, but few had
heeded the conflicting evacuation warnings on that rainy night, and more than 20,000 people needlessly lost their
lives in Armero alone....
"Remote sensing technologies have great potential to assess volcanic hazards [,etc.,]...but these capabilities will
not be effective unless communications channels are established and continually maintained between the scientific
organizations..., the national emergency services agencies responsible for acting on the information provided, and
ultimately with the populations at risk.... What is needed are 'people channels', people-to-people linkages between
responsible individuals in different agencies who personally know each other....
"Scientists in their laboratories have a moral responsibility to see how their data are used--it is not enough to
merely collect the data, to present it at scientific meetings, and to assume one's job is done. If our data have the
potential to save lives, you must make an effort to see that they reach the right hands and are understood...."

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