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JOURNAL OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, Vol. 2, No. 2, (2004), pp.

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JOIM 2004
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STRUCTURAL VERSUS REDUCED FORM MODELS: A NEW


INFORMATION BASED PERSPECTIVE
Robert A. Jarrowa, and Philip Protterb

This paper compares structural versus reduced form credit risk models from an information
based perspective. We show that the difference between these two model types can be char-
acterized in terms of the information assumed known by the modeler. Structural models
assume that the modeler has the same information set as the firms managercomplete
knowledge of all the firms assets and liabilities. In most situations, this knowledge leads
to a predictable default time. In contrast, reduced form models assume that the modeler
has the same information set as the marketincomplete knowledge of the firms condition.
In most cases, this imperfect knowledge leads to an inaccessible default time. As such, we
argue that the key distinction between structural and reduced form models is not whether
the default time is predictable or inaccessible, but whether the information set is observed
by the market or not. Consequently, for pricing and hedging, reduced form models are the
preferred methodology.

1 Introduction Jarrow and Turnbull (1992), and subsequently stud-


ied by Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), Duffie and
For modeling credit risk, two classes of models exist: Singleton (1999) among others. These models are
structural and reduced form. Structural models viewed as competing (see Bielecki and Rutkowski,
originated with Black and Scholes (1973), Merton 2002; Rogers, 1999; Lando, 2003; Duffie, 2003),
(1974) and reduced form models originated with and there is a heated debate in the professional and
academic literature as to which class of models is best
a
(see Jarrow et al., 2003, and references therein). This
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell
debate usually revolves around default prediction
University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
b and/or hedging performance.
School of Operations Research, Cornell University, Ithaca,
NY, 14853-3801, USA.

Corresponding author. Johnson Graduate School of Man- The purpose of this paper is to show that these mod-
agement, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA. els are not disconnected and disjoint model types
E-mail: pep4@cornell.edu as is commonly supposed, but rather that they are

SECOND QUARTER 2004 1


2 ROBERT A. JARROW AND PHILIP PROTTER

really the same model containing different infor- understood in terms of its implication, this con-
mational assumptions. Structural models assume sensus supports the usage of reduced form models.
complete knowledge of a very detailed information In addition, without the continuously observed
set, akin to that held by the firms managers. In firms asset value, the available information set often
most cases, this informational assumption implies implies that the firms default time is inaccessible,
that a firms default time is predictable. But, this is and that a hazard rate model should be applied.
not necessarily the case.1 In contrast, reduced form
models assume knowledge of a less detailed infor- An outline of this paper is as follows. Section 2
mation set, akin to that observed by the market. In sets up the common terminology and notation.
most cases, this informational assumption implies Section 3 reviews structural models, and Section 4
that the firms default time is inaccessible. Given this reviews reduced form models. Section 5 links the
insight, one sees that the key distinction between two model types in a common mathematical struc-
structural and reduced form models is not in the ture. Section 6 provides the market information
characteristic of the default time (predictable versus based perspective, and Section 7 concludes the
inaccessible), but in the information set available paper.
to the modeler. Indeed, structural models can be
transformed into reduced form models as the infor-
mation set changes and becomes less refined, from 2 The setup
that observable by the firms management to that
which is observed by the market. Credit risk investigates an entity (corporation,
bank, individual) that borrows funds, promises to
An immediate consequence of this observation is return these funds under a prespecified contractual
that the current debate in the credit risk literature agreement, and who may default before the funds
about these two model types is misdirected. Rather (in their entirety) are repaid.
than debating which model type is best in terms
of forecasting performance, the debate should be Let us consider a continuous time model with time
focused on whether the model should be based on period [0, T ]. Given on this time interval is a filtered
the information set observed by the market or not. probability space {(, G, P), (Gt : t [0, T ])}
For pricing and hedging credit risk, we believe that satisfying the usual conditions, with P the sta-
the information set observed by the market is the tistical probability measure. The information set
relevant one. This is the information set used by (Gt : t [0, T ]) will be key to our subsequent
the market, in equilibrium, to determine prices. arguments. We take the perspective of a modeler
Given this belief, a reduced form model should be evaluating the credit risk of a firm. The informa-
employed. As a corollary of this information struc- tion set is that information held by the modeler.
ture, the characteristic of the firms default time is Often, in the subsequent analysis, we will be given
determinedwhether it is a predictable or totally a stochastic process Yt, that may be a vector valued
inaccessible stopping time. process, and we will want to study the informa-
tion set generated by its evolution. We denote this
Surprisingly, at this stage in the credit risk litera- information set by (Ys : s t).
ture, there appears to be no disagreement that the
asset value process is unobservable by the market Let us start with a generic firm, that borrows funds
(see especially: Duan, 1994; Ericsson and Reneby, in the form of a zero-coupon bond promising to
2002, 2003 in this regard). Although not well pay a dollar (the face value) at its maturity, time

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STRUCTURAL VERSUS REDUCED FORM MODELS 3

T [0, T ]. Its price at time t T is denoted The time 0 value of the firms debt is
by v(t, T ). Let this be the only liability of the firm.  T 
Also traded are default free zero-coupon bonds of all v(0, T ) = E Q [ min (AT , 1)]e 0 rs ds . (2)
maturities, with the default free spot rate of inter-
est denoted by rt . Markets for the firms bond and Assuming that interest rates rt are constant, and that
the default free bonds are assumed to be arbitrage the diffusion coefficient (t, , x) = is constant
free, hence, there exists an equivalent probability (that is, the firms asset values volatility is constant),
measure Q such that all discounted bond prices this expression can be evaluated in closed form. The
are martingales with respect to the information expression is
set  {Gt : t [0, T ]}. The discount factor is
t v(0, T ) = erT N (d2 ) + At N ( d1 ) (3)
e 0 rs ds . Markets need not be complete, so that
the probability Q may not be unique. where N () is the cumulative standard nor-
mal distribution function, d 1 = [ log (At) +
(r + 2 /2)T ]/ T , and d2 = d1 T .
3 Structural models
This is the original risky debt model of Black and
This section reviews the structural models in an Scholes (1973) and Merton (1974), where the firms
abstract setting. As mentioned in the introduction, equity is viewed as a European call option on the
structural models were introduced by Black and firms assets with maturity T and a strike price
Scholes (1993) and Merton (1974). The simplest equal to the face value of the debt. To see this,
structural model is used to illustrate this approach. note that the time T value of the firms equity
The key postulate emphasized in our presentation is: AT min (AT , 1) = max (AT 1, 0). The
is that the information set {Gt : t [0, T ]} that the right-hand side of this expression corresponds to
modeler observes contains the filtration generated the payoff of the previously mentioned European
by the firms asset value. Let the firms asset value be call option on the firms time T asset value.
denoted by At . Then, Ft = (As : s t) Gt .
Because the BlackScholes and Merton model has
Let the firms asset value follow a diffusion process default only occurring on one date, the model has
that remains non-negative: since been generalized to allow default prior to time
T if the assets value hits some prespecified default
dAt = At (t, At )dt + At (t, At )dWt (1)
barrier, Lt . The economic interpretation is that the
where t , t are suitably chosen so that expression default barrier represents some debt covenant vio-
(1) is well defined, and Wt is a standard Brownian lation. In this formulation, the barrier itself could
motion. See, for example, Theorem 71 on page 345 be a stochastic process. Then, the information set
of Protter (2004), where such equations are treated. must be augmented to include this process as well,
i.e. Ft = (As , Ls : s t). We assume that in the
Given the liability structure of the firm, a single event of default, the debt holders receive the value
zero-coupon bond with maturity T and face value of the barrier at time T . Other formulations are
1, default can only happen at time T . And, default possible.2 In this generalization, the default time
happens only if AT 1. Thus, the probability of becomes a random variable and it corresponds to
default on this firm at time T is given by the first hitting time of the barrier:

P(AT 1). = inf {t > 0 : At Lt }. (4)

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4 ROBERT A. JARROW AND PHILIP PROTTER

Here, the default time is a predictable stopping rates are stochastic. Using the simple zero-coupon
time.3 bond liability structure as expressed above, this
more general formulation includes the models of
Formally, a stopping time is a non-negative ran- Shimko et al. (1993), Nielsen et al. (1993),
dom variable such that the event { t} Ft Longstaff and Schwartz (1995), and Hui et al.
for every t [0, T ] (see Protter, 2004). A stopping (2003). Generalizations of this formulation to more
time is predictable if there exists a sequence of complex liability structures include the papers by
stopping times (n )n1 such that n is increasing, Black and Cox (1976), Jones et al. (1984), and
n on { > 0} for all n, and limn n = Tauren (1999).
a.s. Intuitively, a predictable stopping time is
known to occur just before it happens, since it is From the perspective of this paper, the key assump-
announced by an increasing sequence of stopping tion of the structural approach is that the modeler
times. This is certainly the situation for the struc- has the information set generated by continuous
tural model constructed above. In essence, although observations of both the firms asset value and the
default is an uncertain event and thus technically a default barrier. This is equivalent to the statement
surprise, it is not a true surprise to the modeler, that the modeler has continuous and detailed infor-
since it can be anticipated with almost certainty mation about all of the firms assets and liabilities.
by watching the path of the assets value process. This is the same information set that is held by the
The key characteristic of a structural model that we firms managers (and regulators in the case of com-
emphasize in this paper is the observability of the mercial banks). This information set often implies
information set Ft = (As , Ls : s t), and not that the default time is predictable, but this is not
the fact that the default time is predictable. necessarily the case.

Given the default time in expression (4), the value


of the firms debt is given by 4 Reduced form models
 T 
v(0, T ) = E [1{ T } L + 1{ >T } 1]e 0 rs ds . This section reviews reduced form models in an
(5) abstract setting. Reduced form models were orig-
If interest rates rt are constant, the barrier is a con- inally introduced by Jarrow and Turnbull (1992)
stant L, and the assets volatility t is constant; then, and subsequently studied by Jarrow and Turnbull
expression (5) can be evaluated explicitly, and its (1995), and Duffie and Singleton (1999), among
value is others. As before, the simplest structure is utilized to
illustrate the approach. The key postulate empha-
v(0, T ) = LerT Q ( T ) sized here is that the modeler observes the filtration
+ erT [1 Q ( T )], (6) generated by the default time and a vector of state
variables Xt , where the default time is a stopping
2
where Q ( T ) = N (h1 (T )) + A0 e(12r/ ) time generated by a Cox process Nt = 1{rt} with
N(h2 (T )), h1 (T ) = [ log A0 (r 2 /2)T ]/ an intensity process t depending on the vector of
T , and h2 (T ) = [ log A0 + (r 2 /2)T ]/ state variables Xt (often assumed to follow a diffu-
T (see Bielecki and Rutkowski, 2002, p. 67). sion process), i.e. Ft = ( , Xs : s t) Gt .
Intuitively, a Cox process is a point process where
Returning again to the more general risky debt conditional on the information set generated by
model contained in expression (5), note that interest the state variables over the entire time interval

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STRUCTURAL VERSUS REDUCED FORM MODELS 5

(Xs : s T ), the conditioned process is Poisson The value of the firms debt is given by
with intensity t (Xt ), see Lando (1998). In reduced
v(0, T )
form models, the processes are normally specified   T 
under the martingale measure Q . =E 1{ T } + 1{ >T } 1 e 0 rs ds . (8)

In this formulation, the stopping time is totally Note that a small, but crucial distinction between
inaccessible. Formally, a stopping time is a totally the pricing expression (5) in the structural model
inaccessible stopping time if, for every predictable and the pricing expression (8) in the reduced form
stopping time S, Q { : () = S() < } = 0.4 model is that the recovery rate process is prespec-
Intuitively, a totally inaccessible stopping time is ified by a knowledge of the liability structure in
not predictable, that is, it is a true surprise to the structural approach, while here it is exoge-
the modeler. The difference between predictable nously supplied. This distinction is characteristic
and totally inaccessible stopping times is not the of a reduced form model to the extent that the
key distinction between structural and reduced liability structure of the firm is usually not contin-
form models that we emphasize herein. uously observable, whereas the resulting recovery
rate process is.
To complete this formulation, we also give the
payoff to the firms debt in the event of default, This formulation includes Jarrow and Turnbull
called the recovery rate. This is usually given by (1995), Jarrow et al. (1997), Lando (1998), Duffie
a stochastic process t , also assumed to be part of and Singleton (1999), Madan and Unal (1998),
the information set available to the modeler, i.e. among others. For example, if the recovery rate and
Ft := ( , Xs , s : s t). This recovery rate pro- intensity processes are constants (, ), then this
cess can take many forms [see Bakshi et al. (2001) expression can be evaluated explicitly, generating
in this regard]. We assume, to be consistent with the model in Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) where the
the structural model in the previous section, that debts value is given by
the recovery rate is paid at time T .  
v(0, T ) = p(0, T ) + (1 )eT (9)
We emphasize that the reduced form information  T 
set requires less detailed knowledge on the part of where p(0, T ) = E Q e 0 rs ds . Other extensions
the modeler about the firms assets and liabilities of this model include the inclusion of counterparty
than does the structural approach. In fact, reduced risk, see Jarrow and Yu (2001).
form models were originally constructed to be con-
sistent with the information that is available to the
market. 5 A mathematical overview

In the formulation of the reduced form model pre- This section relates structural models to reduced
sented, the probability of default prior to time T is form models by concentrating on the information
given by sets held by the modeler. We claim that if one
changes the information set held by the modeler
Q ( T ) from more to less information, then a structural
 
= E Q E Q (N (T ) = 1 | (Xs : s T )) model with default being a predictable stopping
 T  time can be transformed into a hazard rate model
= E Q e 0 s ds . (7) with default being an inaccessible stopping time.

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6 ROBERT A. JARROW AND PHILIP PROTTER

To see this, we imbed the different approaches into A method proposed by Duffie and Lando (2001)
one unifying mathematical framework. is to obscure the process A by only observing it
at discrete time intervals (not continuously) and
Let us begin with a filtered complete probability by adding independent noise. One then obtains
space (, G, P, G), where G = (Gt )t0 . The infor- a discrete time process Zt = At + Yt , where Yt
mation set G is the information set available to is the added noise process, and which is observed
the modeler. On this space, we assume a given at times ti for i = 1, . . . , . Since one sees
Markov process A = (At )t0 , where At represents Z and not A, one has a different filtration of
the firms value at time t. Often one assumes that observable events: H = (Ht )t0 G, where
A is a diffusion and that it solves a stochastic dif- Ht = (Zti : 0 ti t), up to null sets. Here,
ferential equation driven by Brownian motion and need not be a stopping time for the filtration H.
the Lebesgue measure. For simplicity, let us assume One is now interested in the quantity
exactly that; i.e.
P( > u | Ht ).
 t  t
At = 1 + (s, As )dBs + (s, As )ds. However, for this example, Duffie and Lando
0 0 assume a structure such that they are able to show
that is still a stopping time,
 t but one that is totally
In a structural model, one assumes that the modeler
inaccessible with 1{t } 0 (s, )ds a local mar-
observes the filtration generated by the firms asset
tingale. Colloquially, one says that the stopping
value F = ( (As : 0 s t))t0 from which one
time has the intensity process = (t )t0 .5
can divine the coefficients and . Consequently,
F G.
The reason for this transformation of the default
time from a predictable stopping time to an inac-
Default occurs when the value of the firm crosses
cessible stopping time is that between the time
below some threshold level process L = (Lt )t0 ,
observations of the asset value, we do not know
where it is assumed that once default occurs, the
how the asset value has evolved. Consequently, prior
firm cannot recover. While this default barrier can
to our next observation, default could occur unex-
be a stochastic process, for the moment we assume
pectedly (as a complete surprise). Under this coarser
that it is a constant. We then let
information set, the price of the bond is given by
= inf {t > 0 : Xt L}. expression (8) with the recovery rate L. Here, the
structural model, due to both information obscur-
Default occurs at the time . The stopping time ing and reduction, is transformed into an intensity
will then be G predictable. based hazard rate model.

As an alternative to the simple model just described, Kusuoka (1999) has proposed a more abstract ver-
it is reasonable to assume that the modeler does not sion of the DuffieLando model where the relevant
continuously observe the firms asset value. Indeed, processes are observed continuously and not dis-
there appears to be no disagreement in the literature cretely. In this approach, Kusuoka does not specify
that the asset value process is unobservable [see espe- where the default time comes from, but rather he
cially Duan (1994) and Ericsson and Reneby (2002, begins with the modelers filtration H G and a
2003) in this regard]. Then, given the modeler has positive random variable . He then expands the
partial information, the question then becomes how filtration progressively so that in the expanded
to model this partial information? filtration J G the random variable is a

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STRUCTURAL VERSUS REDUCED FORM MODELS 7

stopping time. (The interested reader can consult both remains below zero for a certain length of time
Chapter VI of Protter (2004) for an introduction and then doubles in absolute magnitude. Under this
to the theory of the expansion of filtrations.) This circumstance, the default time is totally inaccessible
filtration expansion is analogous to adding noise and the point process has an intensity, yielding an
to the asset value process as in Duffie and Lando. intensity based hazard rate model.
Unfortunately, Kusuoka makes the rather restrictive
hypothesis that all H martingales remain martin- The approach of etin et al. involves what can be
gales in the larger filtration J, thereby limiting the seen as the obverse of filtration expansion: namely
application of his model. filtration shrinkage. However, the two theories are
almost the same: after one shrinks the filtration, in
Another variant of introducing noise to the system principle, one can expand it to recover the orig-
is that proposed by Giesecke and Goldberg (2003), inal one. Nevertheless, the mathematics is quite
where the default barrier itself is taken to be a ran- different, and it is perhaps more natural for the
dom curve. (This is usually taken to be a horizontal default time to be a stopping time in both filtra-
line of the form y = L, but where the level L itself tions, and to understand how a predictable default
is unknown, and modelled by making it random.) time becomes a totally inaccessible time when one
The modeler cannot see this random curve, which shrinks the filtration.
is constructed to be independent of the underlying
structural model. Since the default time depends A common feature of these approaches to credit risk
on a curve that cannot be observed by the modeler, is that for the modelers filtration H, the default
the default time is rendered totally inaccessible. time is usually not a stopping time, nor does it
Nonetheless, Giesecke and Goldberg still assume change in nature from a predictable stopping time
that the firms asset value process is observed con- to a totally inaccessible stopping time. One can now
tinuously, making their structure a kind of hybrid consider the increasing process 1{t } , which may or
model, including both reduced form elements and may not (depending on the model) be adapted to H.
strong assumptions related to structural models, In any event, a common thread is that 1{t } is, or at
namely that one can observe the structural model. least its projection onto H is, a submartingale [see,
e.g. Protter (2004) for the fact that its projection is
etin et al. (2004) take an alternative approach to a submartingale], and the increasing process  of
those papers just cited. Instead of adding noise to its DoobMeyer decomposition can be interpreted
obscure information as in DuffieLando, or begin- as its compensator in H. Since is totally inac-
ning with the investors filtration and expanding it cessible,  will be continuous, and  t usually one can
as in Kusuoka, etin et al. begin with a structural verify that  is of the form t = 0 s ds, where the
model as in DuffieLando, but where the modelers process then plays the role of its arrival intensity
filtration G is taken to be a strict subfiltration of under the filtration H.
that available to the firms managers. Starting with
the structural model similar to that described above, Thus, the overall structure is one of filtrations, often
etin et al. redefine the asset value to be the firms with containment relationships, and how stopping
cash flows. The relevant barrier is now Lt = 0, all times behave in the two filtrations. The structural
t 0. Here, the modeler only observes whether models play a role in the determination of the struc-
the cash flows are positive, zero, or negative. They ture that begets the default time; but as the informa-
assume that the default time is the first time, after tion available to the modeler is reduced or obscured,
the cash flows are below zero, when the cash flow one needs to project onto a smaller filtration, and

SECOND QUARTER 2004 JOURNAL OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT


8 ROBERT A. JARROW AND PHILIP PROTTER

then the default time (whether changed, obscured, model because it requires the continuous observa-
or remaining the same) becomes totally inaccessi- tion of the firms asset value, which is not available
ble, and the compensator  of the one jump point to the market, while in the models of Duffie and
process 1{t } becomes the objectof interest. If  Lando (2001), Kusuoka (1999), and etin et al.
t
can be written in the form t = 0 s ds, then the (2004), the information sets assumed are those
process can be interpreted as the instantaneous available to the market.
rate of default, given the modelers information set.
Which model is preferredstructural or reduced
formdepends on the purpose for which the model
6 Observable information sets is being used. If one is using the model for risk man-
agement purposespricing and hedgingthen the
In the mathematical overview, we observed that a reduced form perspective is the correct one to take.
structural models default time is modified when Prices are determined by the market, and the mar-
one changes the information set used by the ket equilibrates based on the information that it
modeler. Indeed, it can be transformed from a has available to make its decisions. In marking-
predictable stopping time to a totally inaccessible to-market, or judging market risk, reduced form
stopping time. From our perspective, the differ- models are the preferred modeling methodology.
ence between structural and reduced form models Instead, if one represents the management within a
does not depend on whether the default time is pre- firm, judging its own firms default risk for capital
dictable or inaccessible, but rather on whether the considerations, then a structural model may be pre-
default time is based on a filtration that is observed ferred. However, this is not the approach one wants
by the market or not. to take for pricing a firms risky debt or related credit
derivatives.
Structural models assume that the modelers
information set G is that observed by the firms
managersusually continuous observations of the 7 Conclusion
firms asset value At and liabilities Lt processes.
In contrast, reduced form models assume that the The informational perspective of our paper implies
modelers information set G is that observed by the that to distinguish which credit risk model is appli-
market, usually the filtration generated by a stop- cable, structural or reduced form, one needs to
ping time and continuous observations of a set of understand what information set is available to
state variables Xt . As shown in the previous section, the modeler. Structural models assume that the
one can start with the larger information set G, information available is that held by the firms
modify it to a reduced information set H, and trans- managers, while reduced form models assume that
form a structural model to a reduced form model. it is the information observable to the market.
In the review of the literature contained in the previ- Given this perspective, the defining characteristics
ous section, using this classification scheme, we see of these models is not the property of the default
that the model of Giesecke and Goldberg (2003) timepredictable or inaccessiblebut rather the
is still a structural model, even though it has a information structure of the model itself.
totally inaccessible stopping time, while the mod-
els of Duffie and Lando (2001), Kusuoka (1999), If one is interested in pricing a firms risky debt or
and etin et al. (2004) are reduced form models. related credit derivatives, then reduced form mod-
Giesecke and Goldbergs (2003) is still a structural els are the preferred approach. Indeed, there is

JOURNAL OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SECOND QUARTER 2004


STRUCTURAL VERSUS REDUCED FORM MODELS 9

consensus in the credit risk literature that the market Black, F. and Cox, J. C. (1976). Valuing Corporate Securities:
does not observe the firms asset value continuously Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions. Journal of
in time. This implies, then, that the simple form Finance 31, 351367.
Cetin, U., Jarrow, R., Protter, P., and Yildirim, Y. (2004).
of structural models illustrated in Section 3 above
Modeling Credit Risk with Partial Information. The
does not apply. In contrast, reduced form models Annals of Applied Probability, forthcoming.
have been constructed, purposefully, to be based on Duan, J. C. (1994). Maximum Likelihood Estimation
the information available to the market. using Price Data of the Derivative Contract. Mathematical
Finance, 4(2), 155167.
Duffie, D. (2003). Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, 3rd ed.
Acknowledgment Princeton U. Press.
Duffie, J. D. and Lando, D. (2001). Term Structure of
This author is supported in part by NSF grant Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information.
Econometrica 69, 633664.
DMS-0202958 and NSA grant MDA-904-03-1-
Duffie, D. and Singleton, K. (1999). Modeling Term Struc-
0092 tures of Defaultable Bonds. Review of Financial Studies
12(4), 197226.
Ericsson, J. and Reneby, J. (2002). Estimating Structural
Notes Bond Pricing Models. Working Paper, Stockholm School
of Economics.
1
An example would be where the firms asset value follows a Ericsson, J. and Reneby, J. (2003). The Valuation of
continuous time jump diffusion process. Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Tests. Working Paper,
2
For example, this could be easily modified to be the value of SSE/EFI No. 445.
the barrier paid at the default time . This simple recovery Giesecke, K. Default and Information. Working Paper,
rate process is selected to simplify expression (6) below. Cornell University.
3
If the asset price admits a jump, then the default time usu- Giesecke, K. and Goldberg, L. (2003). Forecasting Default
ally would not be predictable. From the perspective of this in the Face of Uncertainty. Working Paper, Cornell
paper, however, this would still be called a structural model. University.
4
Recall that the formulation of most reduced form models Hui, C. H., Lo, C. F., and Tsang, S. W. (2003). Pricing
takes place under the martingale probability measure Q . Corporate Bonds with Dynamic Default Barriers. Journal
5
It is not always the case that the compensator of a totally of Risk 5(3), 1739.
inaccessible stopping time has an intensity. Having an Jarrow, R., Lando, D., and Turnbull, S. (1997). A Markov
intensity is equivalent to requiring that the compensator has Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads.
absolutely continuous paths. When this happens is an open Review of Financial Studies 10, 481523.
question, and a subject of current study. See pages 191193 Jarrow, R. and Turnbull, S. (1992). Credit Risk: Drawing
of Protter (2004), and also Zeng (2004) for preliminary the Analogy. Risk Magazine 5(9).
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on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk. Journal of
Finance 50(1), 5385.
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