2015

SUSTAINABLE MEGACITIES:
vulnerability, diversity,

SUSTAINABLE MEGACITIES: VULNERABILITY, DIVERSITY, AND LIVABILITY

and livability
The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study
Forum with the theme Sustainable Megacities:
Vulnerability, Diversity and Livability was held in Bogor,
Indonesia, during 16-18 March 2015. This event was
attended by academicians, researchers, goverments,
practicioners, NGOs and communities, both Indonesian
and foreign participants.

The plenary lectures were delivered by four keynote

speakers, which include the Minister of Agrarian and Spatial
Planning, Deputy Governor of Jakarta Province, Head of
Megacities and Global Environment Project RIHN Japan
and Scientific Director of Future Cities Laboratory SUSTAINABLE MEGACITIES:
vulnerability, diversity,
Singapore ETH Centre. This conference was attended by 92
presenters and 150 participants.

and livability
IPB INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION CENTER
Bogor, 17 - 18 March 2015

ISBN. 978 - 602 - 14437 - 7 - 4

Organized by
Co-organized by Sponsored by
Inter-University Reasearch Institute Corporation
National Institutes for the Humanities
Research Institute for
Humanity and Nature

Supported by: savepuncak.org | Jaringan Komunitas Ciliwung | Hotel Salak The Heritage
 Proceeding Book

THE 5th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF

JABODETABEK STUDY FORUM

SUSTAINABLE MEGACITIES:
VULNERABILITY, DIVERSITY AND LIVABILITY

IPB International Convention Center (IICC)

Bogor, Indonesia. 17-18 March 2015
ISBN:978-602-14437-7-4

CREDIT

Proceeding. The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum

Sustainable Megacities: Vulnerability, Diversity and Livability

Crestpent Press, Bogor, Indonesia

Editor
Dr. Ernan Rustiadi
Prof. Dr. Shin Muramatsu
Dr. Alinda FM Zain
Dr. Janthy T. Hidajat

Copyeditor
Candraningratri Ekaputri Widodo, PhD
Febri Sastiviani Putri Cantika, S.P.
Novida Waskitaningsih, M.T

Layout and Cover Design

M. Nurdin
Januar Sena

First edition, April 2015

Copyright 2015, Crestpent Press. All rights reserved.

Proceeding. The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum

Sustainable Megacities: Vulnerability, Diversity and Livability
Bogor, Crestpent Press, 2015
x + 300 page: x cm

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page iii
Steering Committee
- Dr. Ernan Rustiadi (Bogor Agricultural University)
- Prof. Dr. Shin Muramatsu (The University of Tokyo/Research Institute for Humanities and Nature)
- Prof. Dr. R. B. Singh (University of Delhi)
- Prof. Dr. Tommy Firman (Bandung Institute of Technology)
- Dr. Alinda FM Zain (Bogor Agricultural University)

Organizing Committee:
Dr. Janthy T. Hidajat (Chairperson)
Dr. Candraningratri Ekaputri Widodo (Secretary)
Dr. Ami A Meutia; Dr. Umar Mansyur; Kengo Hayashi, PhDc.; Andi Syah Putra, M.Si.; Rezky
Krisrachmansyah, M.T.; Annisa Hasanah, S.P.; Cindy Aliffia, M.Si; Febri Sastiviani Putri Cantika ,S.P.;
Herwita Andriamasari, S.P, Lutfia Nursetya Fuadina, S.P.; M. Nurdin, S.Kom.; M. Ridha Ichsan, S.T.; M.
Yogie Syahbandar, S.T.; Novida Waskitaningsih, M.T.; Nusrat Nadhwatunnaja, S.P.; Yanti Jayanti, S.P; Tri
Wahyuni Wulandari, Amd.; Januar Sena, Amd; M. Arifin; Saepul Amri.

Secretariat:
Center for Regional System Analysis, Planning and Development (CRESTPENT/P4W)
Bogor Agricultural University. IPB Baranangsiang Campus,
Jalan Raya Pajajaran, Bogor 16143, Indonesia
Phone/Fax: +62-251-8359072

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page v
 Foreword
More than half of the worlds population now lives in urban areas. Rapid urbanization in Asian developing
countries over the past half century has been followed by excessive urban population concentration in
very large urban agglomerations, so called as megacities. The UN defined megacity as a metropolitan area
(urban agglomeration complex with more than 10 million inhabitants. The number of megacities in the
world has increased from 10 megacities in 1990 with 153 million of population or 7 percent urban
population of the world to become 28 megacities in 2014 with 453 million populations or 12 percent
urban population of the world. The United Nations expected that by 2050 about 66 percent of the worlds
population will live in cities (UN, 2014).

The rapid growth, high population density and high consumption rate of residents in megacities has led to
a wide range of local and global socioeconomic and environmental impacts which requires attention from
the global community. Therefore, it will significantly affect the future prosperity and sustainability of the
world. The Greater Jakarta or Jabodetabek is experiencing continuous growth that seems to be an
unstoppable phenomenon and at the same is facing various problems that may not have been
experienced by other major cities in the world. The result of many studies showed that the carrying
capacity of the environment, especially land and water in Java Island where Jabodetabek lies, is already
overshot. However, given the relatively rapid growth of Mega Urban Jakarta, it is possible that Jakarta will
grow to be the world's largest megacity.

Amid the global concern on the negative impacts of the continuing megacities growth on global
environment, the Center for Regional System Analysis Planning and Development (CRESTPENT/P4W),
Bogor Agricultural University (IPB) has established Jabodetabek Study Forum since 2001. This Study Forum
has conducted biennial international seminar on complex mega-urban issues on Asian megacities as well
as urbanization and urban-rural linkages in Asian countries. The biennial conference has a tradition of
organizing two types of paper presentations, namely scientific papers and community papers. This years
conference will also open a session for local government officials. This proceeding book covers papers
from nearly all the presentations delivered during the conference.

We hope that this proceeding book will be able deliver the aims of the conference: to recognize multi-
dimentional aspects, perspectives and knowledge on megacities; to communicate and facilitate
experiences, policies, and studies related to challenges of continuing development of Jabodetabek and
Asian Megacities, as well as solutions to address these challenges; and to bring up common understanding
on the development of Jabodetabek and Asian Megacities.

Bogor, April 2015

Organizer

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page vii
 Content
Foreword ............................................................................................................................................. vii
Content ................................................................................................................................................. ix
Greetings ...............................................................................................................................................1
Greeting from Chairperson of Organizing Comittee ..........................................................................3
Dr. Janthy T. Hidajat
Greeting from the Chairman of Jabodetabek Study Forum ...............................................................5
Dr. Ernan Rustiadi
Greeting from the Director General of Reseacrh Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN),
Japan...................................................................................................................................................7
Professor Tetsuzo Yasunari
Opening Remark from the Rector of Bogor Agricultural University (IPB) ..........................................8
Professor Herry Suhardiyanto
Keynote Speeches ................................................................................................................................11
Towards and Integrated Jabodetabek Area .....................................................................................13
Ferry Mursyidan Baldan
The Future Jakarta: Planning and Governance.................................................................................17
Sutanto Soehodho
Asias Megacities will Save the Earth! Megacities and Sustainability ...........................................21
Shin Muramatsu
Sustainable Asian Megacities: Emerging Urban-Rural Landscapes ..................................................25
Stephen Cairns
Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN)..............................................................................29
Study on Multi-Functionality of Urban Lakes (Situ and Waduk) in Jabodetabek - focused on
water purification and flood mitigation effect -...............................................................................31
Koshi Yoshida, Emika Matsumoto, Ryunosuke Hariya, Kenji Tanaka
Desakota, or Just a Kota? Transformation of Suburban Kampungs in Jakarta ................................41
Tsuguta Yamashita, Kengo Hayashi
Involution: A Strategy of Kinship Based Living Spaces To Deal With High Density Population in
Urban Kampung A Case Study in Kampung Cikini, Jakarta, Indonesia.............................................52
Meidesta Pitria, Yuki Yoshikata, Akiko Okabe
Determinants of Residential Satisfaction and the Role of Transport Mobility in a Developing
Megacity: Evidence from the Jakarta Metropolitan Area ................................................................63
Ryosuke Abe, Hironori Kato
JABODETABEK Local Government .........................................................................................................81
Setu Front City of Cibinong Raya: An Idea for Protecting and Promoting Urban Development
in Capital of Bogor Regency..............................................................................................................83
Syarifah Sofiah, Tika M. Effendi, K. Septyo Pramudito
Land-Use Cover Change ......................................................................................................................101
Analysis of Land Cover Changes Impact to The Runoff Coefficient and Peak Discharge in
Upper Ciliwung Watershed Using Multi-Temporal Images........................................................... 103
Ardila Yananto, Nuril Umam
Analysis of Land Use and Cover Changes In Ciliwung and Cisadane Watershed In Three
Decades ......................................................................................................................................... 111
Yuliana Arifasihati and Kaswanto

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page ix
 Land-Cover Changes Analysis in Ciliwung Watershed Upstream for Flood Risk Reduction..........116
Annisa Hasanah, Bambang Sulistyantara, Indung Sitti Fatimah
Land Use Change Prediction for Spatial Planning Consistency in Jabodetabek.............................122
Diyah Novita Kurnianti, Ernan Rustiadi
Land Use Prediction of the Development Potential and Conversion Direction of Agricultural
Land in Bogor District .....................................................................................................................133
Herwita Andriamasari, Wahju Q. Mugnisyah, Aris Munandar
Delineation of Sustainable Paddy Field Areas in Java Case Study: Bekasi Regency and
Sukabumi Regency .........................................................................................................................140
Sigit Santosa, Ernan Rustiadi, Budi Mulyanto, Kukuh Murtilaksono, Widiatmaka, Noer Fauzi Rachman
Peri-Urban Agriculture Dynamics and Its Impact on Run Off and Soil Erosion in Jabodetabek
Metropolitan Area..........................................................................................................................149
Didit Okta Pribadi, Derek Vollmer
Spatial Modelling for Prediction of Built Up Area Development Using Land Change Modeler
Analysis and Land Potential Index Approach (Case Study Bogor City)..........................................157
Zidni Farhati Silmi, Sri Lestari, Lintang Dwi Candra
Spatial Planning Audit of Tugu Utara Village and Tugu Selatan Village, Puncak Area, Bogor
District ............................................................................................................................................167
Lutfia Nursetya Fuadina, Ernan Rustiadi, La Ode Syamsul Iman
Spatial Prediction for Build Area Increasing in Suburban Bogor by Using Cellular Automata .......176
Dwi Santy Ratnasari and Puspa Kusumawardani
Spatio-Temporal Land Use and Cover Change Analysis in Southern Region of West Javas
Watersheds ....................................................................................................................................185
Bhre Wijaya Aroengbinang and Kaswanto
Understanding Self-Organization, Urban Transformation, and The Spatial Planning System in
Greater Jakarta Area, Indonesia.....................................................................................................192
Yovi Dzulhijjah Rahmawati
Urban Diversity ..................................................................................................................................211
Significance of Betawi Pekarangan as Cultural Identity Towards Development of Megacity
Jakarta ............................................................................................................................................213
Pranawita Karina Nursyirwan, Wahju Q Mugnisjah, Nurhayati H S Arifin
The Perils of Tourism Growth in A World Heritage Site: The Case of George Town, Penang.......218
Badaruddin Mohamed, Shida Irwana Omar, Siti Zulaiha Zainal Abidin
The Use of Satellite Imagery Analysis for Identifying Gentrification Phenomenon: A Case
Study of Tembalang, A Suburb of Semarang City...........................................................................228
Imam Buchori, Pangi
Community and Vulnerability .............................................................................................................239
Dialectic of Modernity, Spatial Articulation, Capitalism, and Rationalization of Action of Local
Community (Case Study in The Fringe Area of Daya Sub-District and Surrounding Areas,
Makassar City) ................................................................................................................................241
Batara Surya
Residential Area in Suburban Indonesia Today: Conflicts and the New Pattern of Residential
Segregation ....................................................................................................................................255
Pitri Yandri
Role of Community in Urban Forest Management: Case Study of Sangga Buana, South
Jakarta ............................................................................................................................................270
Kurnia Novianti, Angga Sisca Rahadian
Small Step toward Wet Organic Waste Management at The Community Level in Bogor ............281
Darmono Taniwiryono
The Community Building Codes in High Density Slum Settlement ................................................285
Joko Adianto

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page x
 The Role of Public Space Improvement for Enhancing Citizen Happiness Study Case: Bandung
City................................................................................................................................................. 297
Meta Indriyani Kurniasari, Hanfie Vandanu, Karima Nadya Putri Saefulloh
Vulnerability and Adaptability of Traditional Community in Facing of Disaster (Case Study:
Naga Village in Tasikmalaya District)............................................................................................. 314
Indarti Komala Dewi
The Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction.............................................................323
Application of Weather Modification Technology for Flood Mitigation in DKI Jakarta ................ 325
Ardila Yananto, Ibnu Athoillah, Budi Harsoyo
Climate Vulnerability in the Area of Jakarta, Depok and Bogor .................................................... 336
Armi Susandi, Mamad Tamamadin, Saut Sagala, Dodon
Coastal Hydrodynamics and Sedimentation Study of The Jakarta Giant Sea Wall ....................... 342
Velly Asvaliantina, A. Bagyo Widagdo, Widjo Kongko
Coastal Flood in North Jakarta : Damage Estimation and Adaptation Strategy Due to Climate
Change........................................................................................................................................... 350
Andrian Irwansyah, Eka Intan Kumala Putri, Sahat Simanjuntak
Participation of Local Communities and Civil Society Organizations on Coping Land
Subsidence in Jakarta .................................................................................................................... 357
Erlis Saputra
Potency of Climate-Related Disasters in The Area of Jakarta, Bogor and Depok Based on The
Rainfall Prediction ......................................................................................................................... 374
Armi Susandi, Mamad Tamamadin
Responding to Changing in Climate: Who act the most in Greater Jakarta? ............................... 381
Syarifah Aini Dalimunthe, Intan Adhi Perdana Putri
Side Scan Sonar Application for Surficial Sediment Characterization and Geological
Interpretation at Eastern Jakarta Bay............................................................................................ 389
Taufan Wiguna
The Alternative Optimalisation Land Use Planning and Agrotechnology to Develop Water
Resources at Mahat Hulu Watershed ........................................................................................... 394
Firman Hidayat
The Use of Precast Concrete System in Road and Bridge Infrastructure as Technological
Innovation Towards To Green Infrastructure................................................................................ 405
Pingkan Nuryanti
Energy Issues in Spatial Planning ........................................................................................................413
Toward Energy Planning in Jakarta: The Potential Role of Provincial Government...................... 415
Nusaiba Adzilla, Tessa Talitha, Delik Hudalah
Infrastructure and Transportation ......................................................................................................429
A Dynamic Model of Environmentally Sustainable Transport: A Case Study of Megacity
Jakarta ........................................................................................................................................... 431
Ahyahudin Sodri, Iwa Garniwa, Raldi Koestoer
ICT and Its Role on Transportation Problems Case of Jakarta-Bekasi, Indonesia........................ 441
Rini Rachmawati, Silvia Shelly Adelina
Management Strategies of Public Transportation Systems in Bandung Metropolitan Area
(BMA): Institutional Point of View................................................................................................. 448
Nandi
Seeking Paths for Transit-Oriented Development in Jakarta: Local Perception on Station-
Area Development......................................................................................................................... 459
Candraningratri Ekaputri Widodo, Tetsuo Kidokoro, Takashi Onishi
Sustainable Transportation Management for Non-Bus Public Passenger Transport (Angkot) in
Bogor City ...................................................................................................................................... 478
Umar Mansyur

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page xi
Globalization, Formal Economy and Informal Economy.......................................................................497
Foreign DIrect Investment and Regional Dvelopment in Jakarta Metropolitan Area...................583
Silvania Dwi Utami
Linking The Urban Young Middle Class and Megacities Malls in Greater Jakarta..........................594
Intan Adhi Perdana Putri, Andini Desita Ekaputri, Vanda Ningrum
Supermarket Pekarangan : Centre of Local Agricultural Products in Order to Advance
Economics and Bring Society to Loves Local Agriculture Products ................................................601
Ade Brian Mustafa and Sarliyanti S.
Planning and Governance ...................................................................................................................609
Analysis Development Of Border Areas In Kapuas Hulu Regency (Development Index (based
on the available facilities and infrastructures) and Economic) ......................................................611
M. Yogie S, Atang Sutandi, Muhamad Ardiansyah
Concept of Tourism Development Strategy in Semarang Municipality .........................................619
Ray March Syahadat, Priambudi Trie Putra, Pranawita Karina Nursyirwan, Rizki Alfian, Moh. Sanjiva Refi
Hasibuan
Factor Determining The Success of Metropolitan Institution: An experience from BKSP .............627
Citra Fadhilah Utami, Ika Puspita Pancawati
Identification of Institutional Condition in Urban Fringe Settlement Area of Jabodetabek to
Address the Degradation of Environment and Institutional Fragmentation using Interpretive
Structural Modelling ......................................................................................................................634
Janthy Trilusianthy Hidajat, Santun R.P. Sitorus, Ernan Rustiadi, Machfud
Policy Approach in Technopoles Development as The Future Region: Case Study
Technopoles in Pekalongan............................................................................................................643
A.Husni Y. Rosadi
Study on Urban Settlement Management in The Central Part of Central Ciliwung Watershed,
Bogor ..............................................................................................................................................655
Prita Indah Pratiwi, Debora Budiyono
The Identification of Tourist Destination in Jakarta That Related to The Promotion Program,
Moda and Transportation System..................................................................................................668
Priyendiswara Agustina Bela
The Politics of and Leadership in Metropolitan Governance: The Case of Jakarta, Indonesia .....683
Bakti Setiawan
Green City, Green Development and Ecosystem Service .....................................................................691
Availibility of Green Open Space Analysis to Create a Sustainable Green City Area in Bekasi
Using Remote Sensing Techniques ................................................................................................693
Carolina Ajeng Sukmawati Putri, Nurwidya Ambarwati, and Olga Ayu Dewantari
Ciliwung Botanical Garden : Restoration of Upstream Ciliwung Based on Agrotourism...............697
Syah Deva Ammurabi, Hafizh Abdul Aziz, Kartikasari
Ciliwung River Planning as Green Corridor to Rejuvenate The River for Sustainable Urban Life
(Study Case: Settlements in Lebak Kantin, Sempur-Bogor) ...........................................................702
Rizky Rahadian Ramdhany
Composition of Aquatic Plant and Riparian Vegetation in Several Urban Lakes in Megacity
Jakarta ............................................................................................................................................711
Riky Kurniawan, Cynthia Henny, Ami Meutia
Diversity of Tree Species: A Silver Bullet for Greener Megacities in Java, Indonesia ....................720
Andini Desita Ekaputri, Ismayadi Samsoedin
Dynamics Model of Low Carbon City by Green Building Implementation.....................................728
Mesi Shinta Dewi, Setyo S. Moersidik
Ecological Approach for Urban Design in Ciliwung Riparian, Bogor ..............................................738
Presti Ameliawati, Anggi Mardiyanto
Ecological Landscape and House Models at Ciliwung River Side Settlement, Bogor City..............747
Irawan Setyabudi

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page xii
 Greenery and Blue Open Spaces Management in Water Sensitive Cities of Jabodetabek........... 759
Hadi Susilo Arifin, Kaswanto, Nurhayati HS Arifin
Native Trees Improve The Quality Of Urban Green Open Space .................................................. 771
Tati Budiarti
Potential of City Parks in Reducing Urban Pollutants................................................................... 776
Rina Dwica Desyana, Emy Junatan Muakhor, Priambudi Trie Putra
Urban Aesthetic Concept Through Structuring of Landscape Road Element For Identity of
Sustainable City Case Study: Intersection of Bank Indonesia Roundabout and Hotel
Indonesia Roundabout .................................................................................................................. 783
Yusi Febriani and Daisy Radnawati
Urban Resilience : Roadmap Towards Jakarta as Green Metropolis in 2050............................... 792
Rulyan Ali Parinduri
Appendix: Conference Pictures...........................................................................................................809

Proceeding Book - The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page xiii
 ANALYSIS OF LAND COVER CHANGES IMPACT TO THE
RUNOFF COEFFICIENT AND PEAK DISCHARGE IN UPPER
CILIWUNG WATERSHED USING MULTI-TEMPORAL
IMAGES

Ardila Yananto
Engineer, Weather Modification Technology Center, Agency for Assessment and
Application of Technology (BPPT)
Ardi.geo@gmail.com

Nuril Umam
RS-GIS Specialist, CV. TechnoGIS
Nurilgeo@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Land-use cover change has been responsible for altering the hydrologic response of watersheds
leading to impacting river flows. Various water resources project planning and this
implementation require information extent of the value from these changes on watershed
hydrology. Flood that has been regular event in DKI Jakarta, ciliwung watershed has become
major supplier of the runoff. The main objective of this research is to analysis of land-use cover
changes impact to the runoff coefficient and peak discharge in upper ciliwung watershed. In
addition, this research aims to predicting land cover changes in the future and these impact to the
runoff coefficient also peak discharge in upper ciliwung watershed. This research used integration
of Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing based on raster model. Calculation of
peak discharge used Chow method an for estimation the runoff coefficient used Cook method.
Identification of land-use cover changes using Landsat 7 ETM+ acquired in 2001, Landsat 5 TM
acquired in 2005 and 2009, and Landsat 8 OLI that acquired in 2014. To predicting land cover
changes in the future in upper ciliwung watershed used Cellular Automata-Marcov Chain method.
Results this research indicated that land-use cover changes in upper ciliwung watershed from
2001 until 2014 has increased runoff coefficient value from 0.62 becomes 0.66, an increase of
4.3%. Based on land cover changes prediction until 2019, these coefficient runoff value increased
to about 5.78%. These value also proportional to the increased value of peak discharge at the
same rainfall intensity.

Keywords: land cover changes, runoff coefficient, peak discharge

INTRODUCTION

Based on disaster data, hydro-meteorological disasters there is first rank (53.3%) of the total
disaster that have occurred in Indonesia. Of the total hydro-meteorological disasters, 34.1% of it is
flooding. This condition can occur because various factors. Geological characteristics, geographic
and morphologic of Indonesia became a factor that can not be separated. Based on morphological
conditions, flooding can be cause be the relief of the Indonesia landscape that are very varied.
Flood hazard area is exacerbated by the land use change that does not attention to water catchment
areas, even for today the utilization of forest area are often encountered. Deforestation and forest
land use change is cause reduction of the land capability to absorb rain water or other precipitation
processes. As a result, most of the water does not enter into subsurface but stagnant or moreover
becomes runoff.

Proceeding Book The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page 103
The increase of population from year to year, making the land needs of the people will increase..
Land Requests and needs are continually growing can lead the people to do the land conversion
from foresh or crop land to build up area. If related to the hydrological cycle, land use changes will
affect to the land capability to keep the water to seep into sub surface system so that besause the
land use change the water that falls to the surface cant be absorbed and will becomes surface
runoff. Surface runoff can quickly enter the river then became runoff and will more quickly to
downstream. Lag time from upstream to downstream is more quickly so that when river capacity is
exceeded will cause flooding.

Anticipation for the impact and the greater hazard is very necessary as a result of significant
landuse/cover changes. Analysis of landuse change in a few years and predicted the landuse
changes in the future can be the basis of considerations the policy-making about land use, regional
planning and assessment of the environmental degradation impact that may occur in the future. In
this case the time series of remote sensing data as well as cellular automata method that can be
used to predict landuse/ cover changes can be applied to determine the changes of peak discharge
within a few years and also for the future based on the prediction of landuse/ cover changes that
particular in upstream Ciliwung watershed.

Figure 1. Upstream Ciliwung Watershed

(Source : SRTM image)

Upstream Ciliwung watershed area is approximately 148.76 km2. Most of the watershed area is
located in Bogor regency. Lowest terrain elevation in this watershed is about 342 m and the
highest terrain elevation is about 2937 m, and the type of river flow is dendritic-parallel. With
these characteristics, the runoff from upstream Ciliwung watershed will greatly influence for the
downstream water condition especially DKI Jakarta.

METHODOLOGY

This research used integration of Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing based on
raster model. Calculation of peak discharge used Chow method an for estimation the runoff
coefficient used Cook method. Identification of land-use cover changes using Landsat 7 ETM+
acquired in 2001, Landsat 5 TM acquired in 2005 and 2009, and Landsat 8 OLI that acquired in
2014. To predicting land cover changes in the future in upper ciliwung watershed used Cellular
Automata-Marcov Chain method.

Cellular Automata-Markov Chain

One of the Geographyc Information Science application that has been developed to construct a
model is by using Cellular Automata (CA), which is a form of spatial simulation (geosimulation).
CA modeling is used to determine the dynamics an object / phenomenon and these dynamics
interpreted as a form of change (Almeid et al, 2002; Liu, 2001; Deliar 2010). An automaton (A) is

Proceeding Book The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page 104
realized in a limited set of states S = {S1, S2, S3, ..., Sn) and a set of transitions (T). So that A
geometrically equal to () which is influenced by the condition of S and T.

A ( S, T )
Application of CA in the geographical context is not only expressed in the S and T, but there are
other factors that stimulate A, that is condition of neighborhood. Neighborhood conditions will
affect the A, then forming a spatial relation. With the neighborhood factor that affecting A, then
geometrically an automaton can be formulated into more detail, which is composed by automaton
(A), state (S), transitional (T) and neighborhood factor (N).

A ( S, T, N )

discription :
A = automaton
S = state
T = transition rules
N = neighborhood

Figure 2. Cellular Automata concept

(Source : Deliar, 2010)

Rasional Method

The amount of flow is proportional to the flow coefficient (C), is proportional to rainfall (I) and
the watershed area (A), (Chow, 1964 in T Gunawan, 1992). So that the peak discharge in rational
method is formulated as:

Q = 0,278 . C . I . A

In which :
C : No dimension
Q : Peak discharge (m3/second)
I : Rainfall (mm/hours)
A : Watershed area (km2)

Runoff Coefficient (C)

The method used is a Cook method that uses 4 parameters, that is infiltration, slope,
vegetation, and the flow density. Analysis of all parameters use weight score base pixel values
that have been reclasify. Scoring basis can be seen in the table below :

Proceeding Book The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page 105
 Table 1. Basis for determining runoff coefficient (C)

Watershed Watershed caracteristics that can generate flow

characteristics
100 % (extreme) 75 % (Tinggi) 50 % (Normal) 25 % (Rendah)
Slope/Relief, with Slope >30% Slope 10-30% Slope 5-10 % Slope 0-5%
Slope 3D analyst (40) (30) (20) (10)
(W)
Infiltration (W), There is no Slow absorbing Clay material Other soil or land
derived from the effective ground water, clay with infiltration that able to absorb
image cover, a thin layer material or soil similar with water quickly
interpretation and of soil, infiltration with low prairi soil
soil map capacity is infiltration
negligible capacity
(20) (15) (10) (5)
Land cover, derived There is no Vegetation About 50 % of About 90 % of
from image effective ground cover lower to the watershed watershed covered
transformation or cover or the like moderate, there covered by trees by trees or the
multispectral condition is no or grass same type
classification (W) agricultural
crops and lower
land cover.
(20) (15) (10) (5)
Flow density (W), >8 km/km2 3,2 -8 km/km2 1,6 3,2 < 1,6 km/km2
by comparing flow km/km2
length with (20) (15) (10) (5)
catchment area
Sumber : Cook method (Gunawan, T., 1991 with modification)

Figure 3. Flow chart of research

Proceeding Book The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page 106
RESULT AND ANALYSIS
The results of this paper are divided into several main sections, that is the calculation of runoff
coefficient, land cover change predictions for the future, and the determination of peak discharge
changes in a few years that mainly caused by land cover changes.

Runoff Coefficient Calculation

The calculation of runoff coefficient were calculated using Cook method and for processing runoff
coefficient used weight sum tool in. The processing this data based on raster model. In Cook
method, parameters used as the basis for calculating the runoff coefficient are all taken from the
physical parameters, that is slope, land cover, infiltration, and flow density. Where parameter that
can affected significanly to runoff coefficient values every year is land use/cover. Land cover
including dynamic parameters because always changing from year to year, while the slope,
infiltration, and flow including the static parameters because these variables will not changed in a
long time period. Therefore in this research, the land cover changes become main aspect of
research because it most affects to the peak discharge changes from year to year. That if the value
of the peak discharge exceeds the threshold of the capacity of river or dam could cause of
flooding.

a b

Figure 4. Parameter static of runoff coefficient, consist of slope (a),flow density (b),
and infiltration (c)
(Source: data processing)

Dynamic parameter as one of the parameters of the runoff coefficient is taken from land
cover. In Cook method, land cover that mean is more emphasis on the percentage of
vegetation. In this research, the percentage of vegetation cover is taken through the NDVI
image transformation, then the result classified into four classes, that is built up area, lower
vegetation, moderate vegetation, and highly vegetation. Assumptions used in the Cook
method associated with land cover is higher vegetation cover the soil's ability to store water is
also higher so that runoff generated would be lower. Based on time series image processing
can be seen that land cover change from the vegetation becomes non vegetation or built up
area from year to year has increased, so this is will influence of runoff value in upper
Ciliwung watershed.

Proceeding Book The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page 107
Years Land Cover Runoff Coefficient (%)

2001

2005

2009

2014

2019

Figure 4. Land cover and runoff coefficient calculation from 2001, 2005,
2009, 2014, and 2019
(Source : data processing)

Proceeding Book The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page 108
 Table 2. Land cover changes for each years
Land Cover Area (km2)
Land Cover
2001 2005 2009 2014 2019

Highly Vegetation 45.53 42.13 41.84 39.64 38.34

Moderat Vegetation 41.25 43.67 42.54 41.21 40.98
Lower Vegetation 50.67 49.84 48.66 47.32 46.38
Built up area 13.10 14.91 17.50 22.38 24.85
Total 150.55 150.55 150.55 150.55 150.55
(Source: data processing)

Land cover changes and the result of runoff coefficient calculation in upper Ciliwung
watershed using Cook method represented in Figure 4. For land cover in 2019, resulting from
land cover prediction cellular automata-marcov chain model based on land cover in 2009 and
2014. The calculation of runoff coefficient value is done by using the parameters that had
been prepared previously, that is slope, land cover, infiltration and flow density. Processing of
Runoff coefficient value using raster model, so that the final runoff coefficient value resulting
from runoff coefficient average of each pixel. Consecutively runoff coefficient value in 2001,
2005, 2009, 2014, and 2019 is 0.6243, 0.6318, 0, 6536, 0.6674, 0.6821. An increasing the
runoff coefficient value from year to year in general is affected by land cover changes in
upper Ciliwung watershed.

Rainfall Data

Rainfall intensity values that used in this research based on design rainfall for 100 years from
rainfall data Katulampa station, Bogor regency. Upper Ciliwung watershed there at an altitude 342
mdpal, while the highest point of the flow at an altitude 2937 mdpal. The length of the main river
on Ciliwung watershed is 25.94 km, this mean that slope of upper Ciliwung watershed is 10% or
0.1. So that can be known that the time of concentration (Tc) in upper Ciliwung watershed is 0.52
hour. The results of rainfall calculation (I) for some return period representated in Table 3.

Tabel 3. The results of rainfall calculation (I) for some return period

Return period (years) R24 rainfall (mm/hour) Tc (hour) I (mm/hour)

2 40.56 0.52 25.378
5 46.80 0.52 29.419
10 49.57 0.52 31.201
25 52.69 0.52 33.096
50 54.42 0.52 34.240
100 56.16 0.52 35.304
(Source: data processing)

Peak discharge Calculation

The peak discharge calculation is done by determining the runoff coefficient (C) from five
different years and also based on the calculation of rainfall intensity calculation (I) for specific
return period. Where the value of peak discharge analysis for each year by specific return period is
represented in the Table 4.

Table 4. The value of peak discharge based on determining runoff coefficient (C) for five years
and rainfall intensity calculation (I) from some return period

Return period Peak Discharge (m3/s)

(years) 2001 2005 2009 2014 2019

2.00 663.10 671.06 694.22 708.87 724.49

Proceeding Book The 5th International Conference of Jabodetabek Study Forum | Page 109
 5.00 768.68 777.92 804.76 821.75 839.85
10.00 815.24 825.04 853.51 871.53 890.72
25.00 864.76 875.15 905.34 924.46 944.82
50.00 894.65 905.40 936.64 956.41 977.48
100.00 922.45 933.53 965.74 986.13 1007.85
(Source : data processing)

From the table it can be seen that the peak discharge from year to year continues to increase.
Increasing the peak discharge value each year is proportional to the change of runoff coefficient,
which in this case land cover parameter become a major factor. Peak discharge that may occur for
2 year return period is between 650-725 m3 /sec, for a 5 year return period is between 760-840 m3
/sec, for a 10 year return period the greatest peak discharge range between 820-900 m3 / sec, the
peak discharge that can occur within 25 years return period is 860-950 m3 /sec, the biggest peak
discharge can occur in 50 year return period is 890-980 m3 /sec, and the biggest peak discharge
can occur in a 100 year return period is 900-1010 m3/ sec. But neet to be underlined that the
greatest peak discharge each time based calculation, there is not necessarily happened. It is
considering that the calculation also prediction is primarily concerned with the rainfall value that
can occur in an interval or a specific return period.

CONCLUSIONS
As a conclusion of this paper there are some things that need to be underlined related to this
research, that is :

1) Although not have a big impact, each land cover change will affect to the peak
discharge value that may occur in a watershed.
2) Spatial flood modelling not only be done with vector data, but also can be done with
the raster data model.
3) Based on analysis of data processing, consecutively runoff coefficient value in 2001,
2005, 2009, 2014 and 2019 is 0.6243, 0.6318, 0, 6536, 0.6674, 0.6821.
4) Peak discharge in upper Ciliwung watershed that may occur in 2 year return period
ranged between 650-725 m3 /sec, while the peak discharge that may occur in 100 year
return period can range up to 900-1010 m3 / sec.

REFERENCE
[1] Gunawan, T, Penerapan Teknik Penginderaan Jauh Untuk menduga Debit Puncak Menggunakan
Karakteristik Lingkungan Fisik DAS, Institul Pertanian Bogor, 1991.
[2] Hardjowigeno, Sarwono, Ilmu Tanah, PT Mediyatama Sarana Perkasa, 1987.
[3] Hadisusanto, Nugroho, Aplikasi Hidrologi, Jogja Media Utama. 2011.
[4] Kuehn,F., Albiol,D., Cooksley,G.,Duro,J., Granda,J., Haas,S., Hoffmann-Rothe, A., Murdohardono,D.
Detection of land subsidence in Semarang, Indonesia, using stablepoints network (SPN) technique,
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[5] Lillesand/Kiefer, Penginderaan Jauh dan Interpretasi Citra, Gadjah Mada University Press, 1993.
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[8] Windarto, Joko, Flood Early Warning System Develop at Garang River Semarang using Information
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