Increasing our

national
efficiency
 Modern
management is
still based on
efficiency
Really?
Measure your
effectiveness
Increase your
success
A startup lives
in extreme
uncertainty
30 Years
Plausible Probable
Unordered Ordered
Plausible Probable
Unordered Ordered
Plausible Probable
Unordered Ordered

Coevolution Plan
Learn Analyze
The only valid model of a
complex system is the
system itself.

Murray Gell-Mann
h"p://www.ickr.com/photos/isaacmao/380257543
How we work
 Agile Cadence

Daily standup & plan the day

Weekly review full business
Biweekly demo from engineering
Monthly pivot, persevere, amplify
Quarterly review & align strategy
Yearly set strategy
 Track

The flow of work

 Track

Measure & Validated

Hunch Hypothesis Experiment
Test Learning

The flow of knowledge

Case Study
 Customer
Development
 Is there an emerging,
high-growth market for
Agile Portfolio
Management?
 Get out of
the building!
Steve Blank

and get into the

complex system
100 validation interviews
10 earlyvangelists
40 preview customers
34 builds
 Track

Measure & Validated

Hunch Hypothesis Experiment
Test Learning

The flow of knowledge

Hunch:
Agile Portfolio
Management will help us
win more deals
Experiment:
Sell an MVP preview
Experiment:
Sell an MVP preview

Vanity Metric

Month
Experiment:
Sell an MVP preview

Deals Directly Influenced

Month
requiring configuration
changes is not an
acceptable way for
releases to hit our
enterprise working
environment.
Hunch:
Agile Portfolio
Management will help us
win more deals

Validated Learning:
The MVP directly helped
us win more deals
 Pivot
Persevere
Amplify
Hunch:
Adding more developers
will help us productize
this MVP
Experiment:
Hire developers as fast
as possible
Experiment:
Hire developers as fast
as possible
Vanity Metric
Experiment:
Hire developers as fast
as possible
Feature Throughput
Hunch:
Adding more developers
will help us productize
this MVP

Validated Learning:
Adding developers
dramatically increased
feature throughput
 Pivot
Persevere
Amplify
Hunch:
Optimizing the UI will
improve adoption
Experiment:
Implement usability
enhancements
Experiment:
Implement usability
enhancements
Vanity Metric
Experiment:
Implement usability
enhancements
User Adoption by Cohorts
Hunch:
Optimizing the UI will
improve adoption

Validated Learning:
Adoption didnt improve
 Pivot
Persevere
Amplify
Hunch:
Adding features will
improve product adoption
Experiment:
Implement earlyvangelist
feature requests
Experiment:
Implement earlyvangelist
feature requests
Vanity Metric
Experiment:
Implement earlyvangelist
feature requests
Feature Usage
Hunch:
Adding features will
improve product adoption

Validated Learning:
Found the compelling
features
 Pivot
Persevere
Amplify
 We have
product-market fit
 Almost
Continuous
Deployment
Hunch:
Releasing more often will
improve quality
Experiment:
Release every day
Experiment:
Release every day

Vanity Metric
Experiment:
Release every day

Cases from Defects

Hunch:
Releasing more often will
improve quality

Validated Learning:
Smaller release batches
improved quality
 Pivot
Persevere
Amplify
Case Study
 Modern
management is
still based on
efficiency
 Agile +
Lean Startup
=
Effectiveness
Out learn and
out execute
your
competitors