Technical Memorandum

TO: D. Mark Nesbit, P.E.

Resident Engineer
Warrenton Residency
FROM: Troy Austin, P.E.
Senior Traffic Engineer
Culpeper District Traffic Engineering
DATE: March 20, 2017
SUBJECT: Rt. 29 Crash Review
Southern Fauquier County, VA

Purpose
At the request of Warrenton Residency Staff and due to a recent fatal crash and citizen concerns,
a review of Rt. 15/29 was conducted to determine appropriate countermeasures.

Requests included:
Reduced Speed Limits
Removal of Flashing Yellow Arrows installed in the Fall of 2015
Installation of in lane rumble strips on signal approaches

Crash Review Parameters

For the purpose of this crash history review, the corridor of Rt. 29/15 was reviewed from 500
south of the Rt. 29 Business connection in Remington (in Culpeper County) to 500 north of the
intersection of Rt. 29/15 and Rt. 844 (S. of Opal). The time frame for data collection used was
1/1/2011 to 12/31/2016 to encompass a full 5 year review.

In addition, each connection to Rt. 29/15, i.e. VDOT maintained side streets, private side streets,
and cross-overs, were reviewed with a 500 buffer radius for both Rt. 29/15 northbound and
southbound.

Review Results
For this corridor, there are 13 intersections as identified in the VDOT Roadway Network System
(RNS). The total crashes, fatal crashes, injury crashes, and property damage only (PDO >$1500)
has been summarized in Table 1.
Table 1

Total Fatal Injury PDO

Location
Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes
Corridor (excluding Intersections) 84 0 28 56
Rt. 29/Rt. 29 Bus (Remington-Culpeper) 13 0 7 6
Rt. 29/Rt. 651 (Freemans Ford) 46 2 24 20
Rt. 29/Rt. 29 Bus (Remington-Fauquier) 13 0 4 9
Rt. 29/Rt. 28 61 1 32 28
Crossover North of Rt. 28 1 0 0 1
Crossover South of Rt. 661 6 0 1 5
Rt. 29/Rt. 661 23 1 13 9
Rt. 29/Pinewood Lane 6 0 1 5
Rt. 29/Wotton Lane 7 0 5 2
Crossover South of Rt. 663 6 0 3 3
Rt. 29/Rt. 663 21 0 13 8
Crossover North of Rt. 663 7 0 3 4
Rt. 29/Rt. 844 7 0 3 4
Total 301 4 136 161

In addition, Table 2 summarizes whether the crashes occurred on the corridor or at an

intersection while Table 3 summarizes the percentage of each type of crash in the corridor.

Table 2
Fatal Injury
Crashes PDO
Crashes Crashes
Crashes
Location Total % Total % Total % Total %
Not at Intersection or Crossover 84 27.9 0 0.0 28 9.3 56 18.6
At a Crossover 20 6.6 0 0.0 6 2.0 14 4.7
At a Signalized Intersection 107 35.5 3 1.0 56 18.6 48 15.9
At an Unsignalized Intersection 90 29.9 1 0.3 46 15.3 43 14.3

Table 3

Rear Angle Head Side Road Non- Other Deer Other

End On swipe Departure Collision Animal
Percentage 29.9% 20.3% 1.3% 5.3% 18.3% 2.3% 3.7% 18.6 0.3%
%

The crash and Injury rates for the corridor for the years of 2013, 2014, and 2015 have been
provided in Tables 4. The Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) has been weighted
accordingly in these calculations. The most recent historical rates for the Culpeper District and
for the Commonwealth of Virginia have been provided for comparison. The AADT for each of
these years has been summarized in Table 5.

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Table 4
Crash Rates Historical Crash Rates (2013)
(100 Primary Roads
Mill./DVMT)
Length # of # of Crash Injury District State District State
Year
(Miles) Crashes Injuries Rate Rate Crash Crash Injury Injury
2013 54 35 94.16 61.03
2014 6.47 51 43 87.55 73.82 125.62 122.51 66.36 68.74
2015 62 35 102.48 57.85

Table 5
Length
Segment 2013 2014 2015
(Miles)
Culpeper/Fauquier County Line to Rt. 29/15 Bus North
2.17 26,000 27,000 28,000
of Remington
Rt. 29/15 Bus North of Remington to Rt. 28 0.30 29,000 30,000 30,000
Rt. 28 to Rt. 17 (Marsh Road) 4.00 23,000 23,000 24,000

Summary

Speed/Corridor as a Factor
From the crash data reviewed, the corridor from the Culpeper/Fauquier County Line to Rt. 17,
Marsh Road has a lower crash rate for primary roads than other primary roads in both the
Culpeper District and the Commonwealth of Virginia based on the current published crash rates
(2013). The corridor also has a lower injury rate than the District or State rates for 2013 and
2015. The injury rate for 2014 is approximately 11% higher than the 2013 injury rate for
Culpeper District and approximately 7% higher than the 2013 injury rate for the Commonwealth.
As shown, the injury rate in 2015 for the corridor was lower than the rates in both 2013 and
2014. Based on the trends identified, it is anticipated that once the AADT volumes for 2016 are
analyzed, similar results will be experienced.

Approximately 65% of all of the crashes reviewed occurred at intersections. Of the intersections,
7 were unsignalized and 2 were signalized. The 2 signalized intersections accounted for 35.5%
of all of the crashes and 41% of all of the injury crashes. Furthermore, between 1/1/2011 and
12/31/2016, 4 fatalities occurred in this corridor. Three of the 4 fatalities occurred at the
signalized intersections.

The crash data suggests that vehicle conflicts created by intersections are the primary cause of
crashes in this area and not solely speeds of the vehicles. Given the rural nature and character of
Rt. 15/29 in this area with limited and sparse driveways/intersections, a speed study would not
likely result in recommendations for changes in speed limits. The current 60 MPH Speed Limit
was established in August of 2005 following action by the General Assembly to allow roads of
the character and nature of Rt. 29 to be elevated from 55 MPH to 60 MPH.

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Flashing Yellow Arrow/Protected Permissive Phasing
On 10/29/2015, a Flashing Yellow Assembly was installed on the mainline of the Rt.
29/Freemans Ford traffic signal based on an engineering evaluation that the addition of a
permissive phase was appropriate for this intersection given volumes and geometric features.
Between 10/30/2015 and 12/15/2016 there were 15 crashes at this intersection: 8 Rear End, 3
Angle, 2 Road Departure, and 2 Deer. Of the 3 Angle crashes, only 1 involved a vehicle turning
left with a Flashing Yellow Light.

On 11/5/2015, a Flashing Yellow Assembly was installed on the mainline of the Rt. 29/28 traffic
signal to replace the existing 5-section head assemblies. The study of this intersection showed 6
angle crashes as a result of left turning permissive movements prior to installation. Between
11/6/2015 and 11/27/2016 there were 16 crashes at this intersection: 11 Rear End, 1 Angle, 2
Road Departure, and 2 Deer. The Angle crash involved a vehicle turning left from Rt. 28 with a
Green Light being hit by a vehicle traveling north which disregarded the traffic signal. There
have been no reported crashes at this intersection attributed to the Flashing Yellow Assembly
showing that, thus far, there has been a 100% reduction in left turn angle crashes that were
targeted by this improvement and that safety has been enhanced by their installation.

In reviewing the types of crashes in this corridor, 50.2% of the crashes were either Rear End or
Angle crashes, which are the predominate type of crashes that occur at intersections.
Furthermore, 29.9% of the crashes were Read End which are the predominate type of crash at
signalized intersections. The Flashing Yellow Assemblies have increased the green time of the
mainline at each of these intersections. Without the Flashing Yellow Assemblies, there will be
more stoppage on the mainline which will result in not only higher congestion, but likely
additional Rear End crashes. It should be pointed out that during this timeframe, there were 2
fatal crashes at the intersection of Rt. 29 and Freemans Ford Road, both of which were Rear End
crashes and not associated with permissive left turn movements.

Transverse Rumble Strips

In lane rumble strips, according to published studies, have had mixed to minimal effectiveness in
rural areas. Positive results have generally only been shown on local roadways in more urban
settings. According to the FHWA clearing house on crash modification factors, many studies
actually showed increases in crashes after application. Further, as local examples, these have
been installed on Rt. 29 Northbound approaching Vint Hill Road (Rt. 215) in Fauquier County
and on both approaches to Shelby Road (Rt. 662) in Madison County. Crash patterns at both
locations have seen no change with their application and have shown no positive impact for the
cost. Given the high traffic volumes on Rt. 29, installation and maintenance of in lane rumble
strips would be costly and life cycles would be short, especially after snow events. At this time,
these are not recommended for consideration.

Further Comment/Analysis
With over 30% of all of the corridor crashes occurring at the 2 signalized intersections, data
suggests that signal removal and/or alternative intersections should be considered as the most
effective ways to improve safety in the corridor. The great multi-mile distance between signals
and rural nature of the roadway do not coincide with driver expectation for traffic signals.

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Often Road Departure crashes are associated with speed. From 2011 through July of 2016, 16
crash reports denoted that the posted speed limit was exceeded in this corridor. Of these 16
crashes, 6 were DUI crashes and 3 were driver fatigue/sleeping related. It should be noted that in
this corridor, there was a higher percentage of Deer/Other Animal crashes than Road Departure
crashes.

Improvements that have been initiated or are planned in this area include:

Advance signal ahead signs have been added on both Rt. 29 approaches to Freemanss
Ford Road in an effort to further alert drivers to the presence of the signals ahead.
Coordination is taking place with law enforcement by adding a median crossover on Rt.
29 between Rt. 651(Freemans Ford Road) and Rt. 29 Bus (James Madison Street) to
provide a location for speed enforcement.
Edgeline rumble strips are planned for the entire corridor their installation has been
delayed by lack of contractor bids on recent contract lettings.
High Visibility Backplates have been added at both Freemans Ford & Rt. 17
intersections, Rt. 28/29 needs rebuild to easily accommodate this improvement
A full rebuild of the Rt. 28 intersection signal is being planned to add High Visibility
Backplates and remove signal poles from medians
Additional capacity is being designed for the Rt. 28 approach to Rt. 29 by adding a dual
left configuration to reduce delays
Additional capacity is being designed by adding side street right turn lanes for both
Freemans Ford (Rt. 651) approaches to the signal at Rt. 29 to reduce delays
Additional capacity is being designed by adding a right turning taper for the SB Rt. 29
approach to Kings Hill Road (Rt. 657)