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Issue #11
Commodities
price analysis
Global
Welcome to
Global economy
Insight #11.
In our 11th edition of Insight we take a
2
4
Global
Regional
$ $ $
7 Commodities 37.34 47.69 45.93
9 Focus Q1 Q2 Q3
12 Currie & Brown offices
Source: World Bank
www.curriebrown.com
enquiries@curriebrown.com
September 2016 2
Global
One important trend resulting directly economies of France, Spain and Italy.
from the lower tax income from oil The British referendum decision has
production is that Gulf states are now added to the uncertainty, although
adopting different ways to fund public formal exit negotiations are unlikely
spending. In tandem, several states to be triggered by Prime Minister
have also accelerated investment Theresa May before early 2017.
in renewable energies, particularly
It is only when both sides negotiating
solar, in a clear strategic attempt to
positions are known that proper
steer their economies away from
forecasts can be made about the
conventional dependency on carbon
impact of Brexit on Europe, the UK
fuels and the expensive habit of
and the global economy as a whole.
funding massive spending on capital
Prior to the referendum in June,
projects from current accounts.
the IMF and other institutions had
This new assessment of public expressed significant concern about
expenditure is reflected in the the effect of Brexit, not only in Europe
growing interest in PPP indicated by but also on the world economy. The
most governments and other public UK is a significant member of the EU,
agencies across the Gulf region. As and accounts for around 10 per cent
we report in a separate article in this of its market. A hard Brexit, whereby
publication, investors and clients are the UK withdraws without agreement
embracing PPP much more seriously on the single market and freedom of
as a means of funding major capital labour movement, would jeopardise The UK wants to
projects across the region. New numerous international trade deals sustain and strengthen
investors from Europe and East Asia involving the EU.
are moving into this market with its partnership with
The uncertainty may be compounded
greater confidence.
by planned general elections in Germany once it has
Oil aside, uncertainty continues Germany and France next year. left the EU.
to hamper the world economy as
it travels forwards and away from
the banking crisis of 2008 and the
property slump that followed. The
United States economy continues
to demonstrate recovery, especially
in the number of jobs created, but
business and consumer confidence
in most western economies has
remained cautious throughout the year.
Growth forecasts overall have
remained sluggish, although in the
case of the US that may change
depending on the outcome of the
presidential election in November.
Regardless of who wins, there will be
close scrutiny of market reaction and
also any potential policy changes.
The European economy continues
to face serious uncertainty, with
growth remaining slow in the larger
UK Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel
Source: euobserver.com Credit: Tom Evans
The new realism which is being There are other drivers aside from oil Overall the GCC region witnessed a
felt across the region, and is being prices. In some areas, there is greater 40 per cent drop in capital projects
emphasised by some administrations emphasis on those projects that during the first half of 2016, according
more than others, has been driven in demonstrate clearly-understood social to research by Middle East Business
part by the oil price shock of the last and economic value for example Intelligence (MEED). The situation is
18-24 months and a perceived need health, education and transport blamed on a combination of low oil
to re-think the type of projects planned infrastructure while in other areas prices, reduced government spending
by the public sector and the way they the change is a result of clients re- and a weaker real estate market.
might be procured and funded. prioritising construction plans.
MEED Projects
researchers found
that contract awards
amounted to US$52
billion, a US$25 billion
drop on the same
period in 2015.
Source: meed.com.
Rationalisation is the key for both The result of all this is that Saudi region. It also pinpointed flaws such
public and private sectors. Abu Arabia is setting new priorities. as weak structures concerning dispute
Dhabis International Petroleum It is making firm moves towards resolution and what it described as
Investment Company (IPIC) was diversifying energy production to optimism bias, whereby detail is
forced to write down oil assets by $6 include renewables such as solar. skirted over in favour of a general
billion and reported a loss of $2.7 As the worlds single biggest oil feeling that a project will work out in
billion for 2015. Managing director producer (reclaiming this title from the the end, whatever the problems it faces.
Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, who USA in early September) it remains
Saudi Arabia has a national
is also the United Arab Emirates committed to investing in facilities
transformation plan envisaging major
energy minister, confirmed that IPIC to support the shipbuilding and
PPP contracts across various sectors
will merge with another Abu Dhabi distribution industry, such as on the
by 2020, including transport, energy,
sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala countrys east coast, where state oil
health and education.
Development Company. The plan is company Aramco needs more tankers
to diversify the energy portfolio and to be built to meet recovering demand. In Qatar, three groups have submitted
reduce risk. bids to complete the Doha Metro
The difference is that Saudi Arabian
project following the termination of
The family-owned Al Jaber Group has officials are now looking at new ways
the previous consortiums contract
confirmed plans to raise $1.6 billion to fund investments. As we report
earlier in the year. The deal includes
from a sale of assets as part of a elsewhere in this publication, this
the completion of the Msheireb and
recovery plan aimed at reducing debt includes public-private partnerships
Education City stations.
and restructuring liabilities, according (PPP). This year, schemes including
to Bloomberg. The deal, which the Taif airport have been delayed Oman has begun the implementation
involves the disposal of property as clients struggle with the support of a public transport strategy, with
and shares, is being supported by mechanisms for collaboration with urban and long-distance buses
Al Jabers major creditors, including private investors, many of which are creating closer links between the
several banks. foreign banks. three main cities of Muscat, Sohar and
Salalah.
While the UAE continues to build, Tourism is seen as a major source of
other GCC countries continue to re- future income by most GCC states, Oman authorities, however, have
trench, with some interesting results. but many of them acknowledge put a 2,135km rail project on hold
Saudi Arabia, for example, is using that they need to improve transport following the continued suspension
the oil price downturn to re-evaluate infrastructure in order to exploit such of construction operations by Abu
its approach to all projects. The demand. In the case of Saudi Arabia, Dhabi-based Etihad Rail. The initial
results could virtually revolutionise an officials have indicated a willingness to 207km development was due to run
economy known for its comparative effectively privatise the running of their between Sohar and the UAE border.
conservatism. airports in exchange for significant The project has faced two such major
investment. delays and will not meet its original
According to Bloomberg, Saudi
2018 completion date.
Arabian government officials have The international consultancy Deloitte
indicated that as many as a third of has pointed out that far greater
current project plans worth more regulatory clarity is required from
than $60 billion could be cancelled. governing authorities across the
H. E. Mohamed Al Mazrouei
Minister of Energy, UAE
Source: arabianoilandgas.com
Price analysis
2015 2016
Commodities Unit Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Non-ferrous metals
Aluminium alloy US$/tonne 1,600.00 1,602.75 1,576.71 1,576.24
Aluminium US$/tonne 1,503.67 1,586.95 1,636.38 1,693.07
Copper US$/tonne 4,651.33 4,656.68 4,733.98 4,860.00
Lead US$/tonne 1,685.17 1,769.41 1,741.67 1,860.19
Nickel US$/tonne 8,778.33 8,695.89 9,013.90 10,487.77
Tin US$/tonne 14,711.67 15,335.68 16,805.83 18,049.40
Zinc US$/tonne 1,519.83 1,691.14 1,899.62 2,208.30
Steel
Reinforcing bars US$/tonne 328.33 351.67 466.67 400.00
Steel beams - channel US$/tonne 463.33 471.67 541.67 507.50
Hot rolled plates US$/tonne 311.67 316.67 413.33 387.50
Cold rolled coils US$/tonne 338.33 370.00 493.33 457.50
Pre-painted galvanised steel, 0.35 US$/tonne 516.67 565.83 705.00 612.50
Stainless steel HR coils 304 base US$/tonne 1,800.00 1,725.00 1,841.67 1,875.00
Energy
Crude oil US$/barrel 34.75 29.74 42.30 42.89
Diesel (Dubai only) US$/gallon 6.97 5.53 6.27 6.83
Cement
Cement US$/bag 3.47 3.57 3.57 3.56
Concrete (Dubai suppliers) AED/bag 261.33 257.33 258.67 263.50
Rubber
Rubber US$/100kg 168.01 157.12 203.11 210.71
Bitumen 60/70
Bitumen US$/tonne 503.11 503.11 503.11 503.11
Non-ferrous metal prices are derived from London Metal Exchange, whereas steel prices are derived from Middle East steel price
Indications; all based on average prices for the month.
The price of rubber is derived from International Rubber Board, based on average prices for the month.
All prices for commodities are based on bulk quantities, cash trade, US dollar.
Where ranges have been provided, an average price has been assumed for the purpose of comparison.
The rate for beams - channels has been derived from Far East/Europe/India market.
Cement prices are derived from UAE local supplier.
Crude oil price is derived from light crude brent, US market.
Diesel rates are from EPPCO.
Concrete rates AED/m3 based on the average price of concrete 45/27 from four UAE local suppliers.
Reinforcing bars are based on the average price from four UAE suppliers.
Cement rates AED/tonne based on the Dubai government cap imposed in 2008.
30.00
120.00
25.00
105.00
90.00 20.00
AED/bag
75.00
15.00
US$/barrel
60.00
45.00 10.00
30.00
5.00
15.00
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Q1
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Q4
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102 011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3,000.00
AED/gallon
10.00
8.00
2,000.00
6.00
1,000.00
4.00
2.00 -
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
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2009 2010 2011 2012 20132 014 2015 2016 Q1
2006 2007 2008 20092 010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4,500.00
Lead 50,000.00
Zinc Tin
3,500.00
40,000.00
3,000.00 35,000.00
US$/tonne
US$/tonne
2,500.00 30,000.00
2,000.00 25,000.00
20,000.00
1,500.00
15,000.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
500.00
5,000.00
-
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
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2006 2007 2008 2009 20102 011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2006 2007 2008 2009 20102 011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
tighter controls on public spending and Early attempts at PPP-style projects In Gulf countries a
reduced cash income, PPP becomes faced difficulties, and it is important
an attractive option, tapping into that both parties understand the funding gap of around
longer-term funding solutions, creating demands involved in embarking on $270 billion is expected
output-based specifications for this path. Successful PPP projects
construction and operational periods,
over the next three
result from competent pre-planning of
and developing skills in both the public clear outputs for both construction and years, with around $50
and the private sector. asset operation, followed by strong billion of that directly in
negotiation. By their very nature they
The Gulf Co-operation Council
attract leading international banks and
infrastructure.
(GCC) states have between them
many thousands of construction construction groups. Their position is (Source: Standard & Poors)