ENGINEERING PROBABILITY

SET THEORY

Definition:
A set is a collection of well-defined objects, called elements.

Example 1.1 The following are examples of sets:

a. The months of the year that begins with letter J
b. The set of engineering drawing instruments
c. The set of PBA teams in this years PBA series

Names of set are designated by using capital letters such as A, B, . To

indicate that an element belongs to a given set, the symbol epsilon is used
and the epsilon for an element that does not belong to the set.

Example 1.2 Write the following statements in mathematical symbol.

a. 4 is an element of the set S
Answer: 4 S
b. 1 is not an element of the set S
Answer: 1 S.

Methods of Describing A Set

One way of writing a set is by listing its elements, separating them by

commas, and including this listing within a pair of braces, { }. This way of
representing a set is called the listing or roster method.

Example 1.3 Describe the given sets by roster method.

a. If A is the set of the days of the week that begin with the letter S, then
we describe A using roster method by
A = { Saturday, Sunday }
b. If B is the set of letters in the word love, then
B = { l, o, v, e }
c. Using set notation, write the set of digits that make up the telephone
number for information, 7155170
Answer: { 0, 1, 5, 7 }

Note that when we form a set, the elements within the set are never repeated
and the elements can appear in any order.

Example 1.4 {x | x is a natural number between 2 and 10} (read the set of all
element x such that x is a natural number between 2 and 10) defines the set { 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 }.
 The notation {x | x is a natural number between 2 and 10} is an example of
writing the set in set-builder notation.

Kinds Of Sets
A set A is said to be a subset of another set B if every element of A is
also an element of B. In symbol, A B.

Example 1.5 Given the sets

A = { 1, 2, 3 }, B = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 }, C = { 3, 5, 7 }
Determine if the following statements are true or false.
a. A B Ans. True
b A C Ans. False
c. C B Ans. True

The totality of elements under consideration as the elements of any set is the
universal set. We denote the universal set by the symbol U.

Operations On Sets

The union of sets A and B, denoted by A B, is defined as the set whose

elements are in A or in B or in both A and B. In symbol,
A B = { x | x A or x B }

Example 1.6 Given the following sets:

A = { x | x is a positive even integer less than 10 }
B = { 1, 3, 5, 7 }
The set A B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 } { 1, 3, 5, 7 } = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}

The intersection of A and B, denoted by A B , is defined as the set whose

elements are common to both. In symbol, A B = { x | x A and x B }.

Example 1.6 Given the following sets:

A = { 1, 2, 3 }, B = { 2, 3, 4, 5 }, C = { 4, 5 }
Find:
a. A B Ans. {2, 3}
b. B C Ans. {4, 5}

Venn Diagram

A pictorial representation of relations and operations on sets is called a

Venn diagram. It usually shows a rectangle (which represents the universal
set) that includes circles depicting the subsets.
 Example: A survey of 100 students in a particular high school revealed the following
information about their enrollment in Mathematics, History, and Pilipino:
26 take Mathematics
65 take History
65 take Pilipino
14 take Mathematics and History
13 take Mathematics and Pilipino
40 take History and Pilipino
8 take Mathematics, History and Pilipino
(a) How many students take Mathematics as their only subject?
(b) How many students did not take any of the three subjects?
(c) How many students were taking Mathematics and History but not
Pilipino?
Solution:

Referring to the Venn diagram above,

(a) n1 = 26 (5 + 8 + 6) = 7
(b) n2 = 100 (7 + 20 +19 + 5 +32 + 6 + 8) = 3
(c) n3 = 14 8 = 6

PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS

Fundamental Counting Principle:

If an event can happen in any one of p ways and if when this has
occurred, another event can happen in any one of q ways, then the number of
ways in which both events can happen in a specified order is pq.
Example: If in climbing a certain mountain, there are 5 trails that could be
followed in going to the top and 4 trails in going down, in how many ways can the
trip be done?
Solution: Since n1 = 5 and n2 = 4, there are 5(4) = 20 ways in which such trip
can be done.
Permutations:
An arrangement of objects in a definite order is called a permutation of the
objects. This counting technique is usually applied to problems about digits,
filling distinct positions and seating arrangements.
Example: Taken 3 at a time, the letters A, B, C has six permutations, namely
ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA.
Taken two at a time, it has also six permutations, namely
AB AC BA BC CA CB.

The number of permutations of n things taken r at time is given by

n!
n Pr or P(n, r ) n(n 1)(n 2) to r factors
(n r )!
Example: In how many ways can the 5 starting positions on a PBA team be
filled with 12 men who can play any of the positions?
Solution: For n = 12 and r = 5, the preceding formula on permutation yields
12!
12 P5 95,040 ways
(12 5)!
-0-

The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken n at a time is n!, i.e.

n Pn P(n, n) n! n(n 1)(n 2) 3 2 1
Example: In how many ways can four books (Math, English, History and
Science) be arranged on a shelf?
Solution: Using nPn with n = 4, we have P = 4! = 24 ways.

Permutation with Alike Things:

The number of permutations of n objects taken altogether where r1 are of
one kind, r2 are of the other kind and so on is given by
n!
n Pn
r1!r2 ! rk !
Example: The number of ways of arranging the word PHILIPPINES is
11!
11 P 11 1,108,800 ways
3! 3!

Circular Permutations:
To find the number of ways of arranging n different objects in a circle, we
first select a position for one of the objects. Then the others can be placed in
their positions in (n 1)! ways.
The number of circular permutations of n objects taken altogether is
n 1 Pn 1 (n 1)!
Example: In how many ways can 7 different trees be planted in a circle?
Solution: Since n = 7, there are (7-1)! = 6! = 720 ways of planting the 7 trees in
a circle.
Combinations:

A combination is a selection of objects with no attention given to the order

of arrangements. This counting technique is usually applied to problems about
groups, committees or collections where order of the elements is not important.

The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is given by

n!
n Cr or C (n, r )
(n r )!r!
Example: In a deck of 52 cards, in how many ways can we select 5 hearts?
Solution: The number of ways of selecting 5 hearts out of 13 heart cards is
13!
13 C 5 1,287 ways
(13 5)!5!
Combination in a Series:
The total number of combinations of n things taken 1, 2, 3, . . . . . ., n at a
time is
n C1 n C 2 n C 3 ...... n C n 2 n 1
Example: A boy has 5 coins each of a different denomination. How many
different sums of money can he form?
Solution:
5 C1 5 C 2 5 C3 5 C 4 5 C5 2 5 1 31

PROBABILITY

The sample space S for an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes
of the experiment. Any subset of a sample space is called an event. If A is a
subset of S, then the probability of the occurrence of event A is equal to the
number of possible ways in which event A can occur, i.e. n(A) divided by the
number of possible outcomes of the experiment, i.e. n(S).
n( A)
P( A)
n( S )
If A is the event that A will not occur, then
n( A' )
P( A' ) 1 P( A)
n( S )
i.e. P( A) P( A' ) 1

Example: In a family of 2 children, what is the probability of having exactly one

boy?

Solution: To answer this problem, the total number of outcomes must be listed
first. This is the fundamental sample space S.
S = {B1B2, B1G2, G1B2, G1G2}
 There are 4 possible outcomes of which only two contain exactly 1 boy.
Therefore if A is the event of having exactly one boy, then
A = { B1G2, G1B2}
n( A) 2 1
P( A)
n( S ) 4 2

Conditional Probability:

Conditional probability is the probability that a second event will occur if

the first event already happened. Symbolically, conditional probability is written
as P(A|B) and is read as the probability of event A given that event B has
occurred. The computing formula is given by
P( A B) n( A B)
P(A|B) =
P( B) n( B)
where P(AB) is the probability that both events A and B will occur.

Example: A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards. Given that the card
drawn is a face card, then what is the probability of getting a king?
Solution: Let A be the event of getting a face card and B the event of getting a
king. Thus
n( B A) 4 1
P(A|B) =
n( B) 12 3

Mutually Exclusive Events:

Two events are mutually exclusive if they can not occur at the same
time.
Let A and B be mutually exclusive events. Then
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
where P(A B) is the probability that event A or B will occur.
If events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)

Independent and Dependent Events:

Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of an

event A does not affect the occurrence of event B. Otherwise, the events are
said to be dependent.
An example of independent events A and B is when drawing a ball (A)
from an urn and after replacing the first, a second ball is drawn (B).
An example of dependent events A and B is when drawing the first ball
(A), a second ball is drawn (B) without replacement of the first.

For independent events A and B,

P( A B) P( A) P( B)
 If event B depends on event A,
P( A B) P( A) P( B A)

Probabilities in Repeated Trials:

If p is the probability that an event will occur in a single trial of an experiment and
q is the probability the event will fail to occur, then the probability that these events will
occur exactly r times in n trials is

n Cr p r q nr

Expectation:

If p is the probability of the occurrence of an event in a single trial, then the

expected number of occurrences or expectation of that event in n trials is
defined as np.

If p is the probability that a person will win m pesos, his expectation is

defined as mp. It is the average amount that he would expect to win in the long
run.
 Review Exercises in Engineering Probability

1. A certain mechanical part of a machine can be defective because it has one or more out of
three possible defects: insufficient tensile strength, a burr or a diameter outside of tolerance
limits. In a lot of 500 pieces
19 have tensile strength defect,
17 have a burr,
11 have an unacceptable diameter,
12 have tensile strength and burr defects,
7 have tensile strength and diameter defects,
5 have burr and diameter defects,
2 have all three defects.
(a) How many have no defects?
(b) How many pieces have only burr defects?
(c) How many pieces have exactly two defects?

2. How many permutations can be formed from the letters of the word CONSTITUTION?

3. How many four-place numbers can be formed using the digits from 1 to 9?

4. Find n if P(n, 3) = 6 C(n, 5).

5. How many numbers of 5 different digits, each number to contain 3 odd and 2 even digits, can
be formed 1 to 9?

6. A drawer contains 10 white balls and 6 black balls. What is the probability of randomly
drawing 2 black balls?
a. 0.15 b. 0.104 c. 0.125 d. 0.180

7. Two dice are rolled. Find the probability that the sum of the outcomes is greater than 10.

8. Nine tickets, numbered 1 to 9, are in a box. If two tickets are drawn at random, determine the
probability that both are odd.

9. A committee of three is to be formed from a group of 5 men and 4 women. If the selection is
made at random, find the probability that two are men.

10. Three balls are drawn from a box containing 5 red, 8 black and 4 white balls. Determine the
probability that all are white.

11. A bag contains 9 balls numbered 1 to 9. Two balls are are drawn at random. Find the
probability that one is even and the other is odd.

12. How many cars can be given license plates having 5-digit numbers using the digits 1 to 5 with
no digit repeated in any license plate?

13. A committee of 4 is selected by lot from a group of 6 men and 4 women. What will be the
probability that it will consist of exactly 2 men and women?

14. From a bag containing 3 white, 4 black and 5 red balls, a ball is drawn. Find the probability
that it is not red.
15. There are four balls of different colors. Two balls at a time are taken and arranged any way.
How many such combinations are possible?
a. 36 b. 3 c. 6 d. 12

16. A girl has 6 bags, 11 dresses, and 7 pairs of shoes. In how many different ways can she dress
up?

17. How many signals can a scout make out of 9 banners if 3 banners are red, 4 are blue, and 2
are white?

18. A family of four enters an airplane which has fifteen available seats. In how many different
ways can the family be seated?

19. How many groups can be made out of eight boys if the groups will consist of 1 to 8 boys?

20. Repetitions allowed, find the number of combinations that can be formed from the numbers 2,
3, 5, 8, and 9, if each combination consists of five digits?

21. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that exactly one head occurs?

22. A die is tossed. What is the probability that the number 5 shows up or a number less than
6?

23. If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find the probability that it is a heart or a diamond?

24. Two coins are tossed. Find the probability that the coins fall alike and the first coin is a head.

25. A box contains two yellow and three white balls. Two balls are drawn in succession without
replacements. What is the probability that both are yellow?

26. A building has six outside doors. In how many ways can a person enter and leave the
building by a different door?

27. Four different colored flags can be hung in a row to make a coded signal. How many signals
can be made if a signal consists of the display of two or more flags?
a. 60 b. 62 c. 64 d. 66

28. In how many ways can seven different colored beads be made into a bracelet?

29. A class consists of 5 boys and 7 girls. (a) In how many ways can the class elect the president,
the vice-president and the secretary? (b) In how many ways can the class elect 3 members of
a certain committee?

30. In how many ways can a student answer 5 out of 8 questions if he is required to answer 3 of
the first 4 questions?

31. A bag contains 3 white, 7 black, 2 red and 9 green balls. If one ball is drawn from the bag,
what is the probability that it will either be white or green?
 a. 4/7 b. 3/8 c. 1/7 d. none of these

32. A student is taking two exams, one in Calculus and another in Physics. The probability that
he will pass the Calculus exam is 0.75 and the probability that he will fail the Physics exam is
0.20. The probability that he will pass both exams is 0.65. What is the probability that he will
pass either of the exams?
33. From a bag containing 4 black balls and 5 white balls, two balls are drawn one at a time. Find
the probability that both balls are white. Assume that the first ball is returned before the
second ball is drawn.

34. A bag contains 3 white and 5 black balls. If two balls are drawn in succession without
replacement, what is the probability that both balls are black?

35. The probability of getting head or tail in tossing a coin is . If a coin is tossed 6 times, what
is the probability of getting exactly 4 heads?
a. 15/64 b. 5/16 c. 1/8 d. none of these

ANSWERS:
1. 475, 2, 18 11. 5/9 21. 1/2 31. a
2. 9,979,000 12. 120 22. 5/6 32. 0.9
3. 3,024 13. 3/7 23. 33. 25/81
4. 8 14. 7/12 24. 34. 5/14
5. 7,200 15. d 25. 1/10 35. a
6. c 16. 462 26. 30
7. 1/12 17. 1260 27. a
8. 5/18 18. 32,760 28. 720
9. 10/21 19. 255 29. 1320, 220
10. 1/170 20. 3,125 30. 24