Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD: (1.2904) New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (see graph: last target at 1.3032).

FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.2906, 1.2909, 1.2903, 1.2904, -0.0003)

1.3008 1.305
1.300
HOURLY CHARTS
1.295
1.290
1.285
1.280
1.275
1.2723
1.270
1.265
1.260
1.255
1.2454 1.250
1.245
1.240
1.235
1.230
1.225
1.220
1.215
1.210
1.2110
1.205
1.200
1.195
1.190
1.1876 1.185
1.180
21 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July
New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (see graph) and above daily channel top off Dec high.
Above channel off 1.1876 (see graph) but now back below the daily Flag off year low (bottom at 1.2944 today).
Support area at 1.2891/ .2884 (daily envelope bottom/ today’s low? + weekly Bollinger midline), with next levels
at 1.2847 (break-up hourly + daily Short Term Moving Average↑): ideal area to stay above to keep current better
tone for €.
If unable to hold, next levels at 1.2805 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.2778/ .2768 (break-up daily/ weekly enve-
lope bottom), where pause favored.
Resistance at 1.2944/ .2955 (see above/ reaction high hourly), with next levels at 1.3008/ .3010 (current new
recovery high off year low/ daily Bollinger top), with next level at 1.2974 (), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3032 (last target off 1.2454 + modified daily Standard Error band bottom), ahead of
1.3047 (daily envelope top) and 1.3075/ .3095 (61.8% 1.3819 to 1.1876 + daily Starc top/ May 10 high): tough
on 1st tests, amid overextended readings.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.2891/ .2884 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) 1.2944/ .2955 (see above)
1.2847 (see above + daily ST MA↑) 1.3008/ .3010 (current new recovery high/ daily
Bollinger top)
1.3032/ .3047(see above/ daily envelope top + see
1.2805/ .2778 (break-up hourly/ daily)
above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

USD/JPY: (86.70) New year low on move back below channel off 94.99 (see graph)
FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (86.67, 86.71, 86.67, 86.68, +0.02)
92.89
93.0

92.5

92.0

91.5

91.0

90.5

90.0

89.5
89.15
89.0

88.5

88.0

87.5

87.0
86.96
86.5

86.27
86.0

21 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

New year low scored on move below daily Uptrendline off 2009 low (90.39 today) and back below channel off
94.99 (see graph).
Resistance at .86.86/ 86.94 (reaction high hourly/ daily envelope top), with next levels at 87.23/ 87.24 (break-
down daily/ weekly envelope top), ahead of 87.55 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓) and 87.77/ 87.82 (weekly
Short Term Moving Average↓/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 88.35/ 88.50 (daily Bollinger midline/ reaction high hourly) and 89.44 (daily Downtrendline
off 94.99): tough on 1st attempts.

1st support area at 86.49/ 86.46 (today’s low?/ weekly Bollinger bottom), with next levels at 86.37/ 86.27 (daily
Bollinger bottom/ current new year low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next level at 86.06/ 85.91 (daily Starc bottom + monthly daily envelope bottom/ daily envelope bottom):
tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

86.49/ 86.46 (see above/ weekly Bollinger bottom) 86.86/ 86.94 (see above/ daily envelope top)

86.37/ .27 (daily Bollinger bottom/ new year low) 87.23/ .87.24 (see above/ weekly envelope top)
86.06/ 85.91 (monthly envelope bottom + daily Starc bot-
87.55/ 87.82 (daily ST MA↓/daily MT MA↓)
tom/ daily envelope bottom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/GBP: (.8429) Rebound off new year low puts pair back in channel off .8810 (see graph)
FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8427, 0.8430, 0.8423, 0.8426, +0.0000)
0.870

0.865

0.860

0.855

0.850
.8462
0.845
.8419

.8382 0.840

0.835

0.830

0.825

.8210 0.820

.8180
0.815

0.810

.8067 0.805

24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low puts pair back in channel off .8810 and currently back above .8382 (see graph) and
back above daily channel off .9130 (broken top at .8342 today).

1st Support area at .8418/ .8410 (break-up hourly/ daily envelope bottom), with next levels at .8398/ .8396
(break-up weekly/ daily Short Term Moving Average↑), ahead of .8390 (break-up hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8361/ .8358 (reaction low hourly/ weekly envelope bottom), ahead of .8349 (daily Me-
dium Term Moving Average↑): tough on 1st attempts.
1st Resistance area at .8442 (weekly Medium Term Moving Average↓), ahead of .8462 (current recovery high off
year low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8480./ .8485 (38.2% year high to .8067/ daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8418/ .8410 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) .8442 (weekly MT MA↓)

.8398/ .8396 (see above/ daily ST MA↑) .8462 (current recovery high off year low)

.8361/ .8358 (see above/ weekly envelope bottom) .8480/ .8485 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/JPY: (111.82) Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43 (see graph)
FOREX EURJPY=EBS (111.88, 111.89, 111.81, 111.81, -0.06)

114.5

114.0

113.43
113.5

113.0

112.5

112.0

111.5

110.90 111.0

110.5

110.0

109.5

109.0
108.83
108.5

108.0

108.06 107.5

107.30 107.0

20 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19
2010 June July

Rebound off new year low reapproached 113.43 (see graph): Resistance at 112.35/ .54 (reaction high hourly/
weekly projection band top), with next levels at 112.87 (daily envelope top), ahead of 113.15 (weekly envelope
top) and 113.40/ .43 (current recovery high off year low/ June 21 high + neckline daily Double bottom), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 113.68 (23.6% year high to 107.30 + daily Bollinger top), ahead of 114.16 (June 03 high)
and 114.40/ .50 (May 21 high/ modified daily Standard Error band top + 3rd target off 110.90: see graph): tough
on 1st attempts

1st Support area at 111.52/ .50 (reaction low hourly/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↑), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 111.22/ .15 (daily envelope bottom/ break-up hourly) and 111.08/ 110.89 (daily Long Term

Moving Average↑/ daily Bollinger midline): tough on 1st tests.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

111.52/ .50 (see above/ daily MT MA↑) 112.35/ .54 (see above)
112.87/ 123.15 (daily envelope top/ weekly envelope
111.22/ 15 (daily envelope bottom/ see above)
top)
113.40/ .43 (current recovery high off year low/ June
111.08/ 110.89 (daily LT MA↑/ daily Bollinger midline)
21 high + see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Monday, July 19, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

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accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5