Press Release

April 06, 2017 | Mumbai

Sugar sector balance sheets set to turn sweeter

Current decision to allow duty-free imports of 0.5 million tonne not to impact prices: CRISIL
The credit risk profiles of sugar manufacturers are likely to improve over the medium term with sugar prices
expected to remain firm over the current and next sugar seasons (October 1 to September 30). The resultant
higher profit and cash accrual is expected to be used by manufacturers to either reduce debt or invest in the
relatively more stable ancillary business of distillery and electricity co-generation.

Fresh greenfield expansion of sugar capacities is unlikely due to constraints in cane availability and sub-optimal
utilisation of some existing capacities. While reduction in debt will lead to a significant improvement in balance
sheets, higher contribution from distillery and cogeneration operations will cushion profitability during sugar
downcycles. That will make sugar producers more resilient and improve their credit risk profiles.

Says Subodh Rai, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings: CRISILs analysis of 45 large sugar companies
(including those it rates and the listed ones, which together account for nearly 30% of industry
production) indicates cash accrual will increase to Rs 5,600 crore over fiscal 2017 & 2018 on the back of
healthy sugar prices, compared with a negative Rs 1,200 crore in the past three years. Thats despite the
removal of excise incentives on ethanol, lower ethanol prices, and expected increase in cane prices in
the next sugar season. With higher cash accruals and no major greenfield capex, there could be a debt
reduction by Rs 4,600 crore, from the levels seen at end of fiscal 2016.

The debt reduction is much more significant than it seems given that working capital debt levels peak typically at
the end of a fiscal due to stocking of sugar inventory. Further, cash flows from distillery operations and co-
generation will improve overall efficiencies and insulate against fall in sugar prices. These capacities also add to
diversity in the revenue stream.

Sugar prices are expected to remain firm in sugar season 2017 (SS2017) because closing inventory is expected
to be at an 8-year-low following a fall in production in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Thats despite the
governments recent move to allow duty-free import of raw sugar of 0.5 million tonne upto June 12, 2017, and
reduction in consumption due to demonetisation. Closing inventory is expected to be 2.2 months in SS2017
compared with 3.8 months in SS2016.

Says Manish Gupta, Director, CRISIL Ratings: We expect sugar prices to remain firm in SS2018 as well,
even if production increases to ~25 million tonne or ~4-5 million tonne more than SS2017 due to better
cane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Furthermore, as the government has waited till the end
of the crushing season to allow imports of 0.5 million tonne of raw sugar into the country, we believe
imports will remain range-bound and would be towards targeting physical shortages. However, the
governments policy on import, and price control will remain a key monitorable.

The government had on April 5, 2017, allowed import of 0.5 million tonne of raw sugar at zero duty through open
general licence in order to address regional production gaps and to maintain domestic prices at reasonable
levels. The import will be based on zonal quantity restrictions.

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For further information contact:
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Tanuja Abhinandan Manish Kumar Gupta
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CRISIL Limited CRISIL Limited
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Jyoti Parmar
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
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jyoti.parmar@crisil.com

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