Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555

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Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Energy needs for Morocco 2030, as obtained from GDP-energy and

GDP-energy intensity correlations
Amin Bennouna n, Charaf El Hebil
Physics Department, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia Marrakech, Cadi Ayyad University, Marrakech, Morocco

H I G H L I G H T S

We present several mathematical models for country-level energy intensity.

We introduce the concept of the partial energy intensity for each energy segment.

We use mathematical models that historically work best for each one.

We extrapolate the models into the future to get their forecasts.

We use these lasts to calculate forecasts of needs in terms of nal energy.

art ic l e i nf o a b s t r a c t

Article history: We present forecasts of the energy consumption of Morocco towards 2030. Two models have been
Received 18 May 2015 developed and their results compared: one based on the energy intensity (IE) and another one on a link
Received in revised form with the country urbanization rate (URB). The IE model allowed to segment energy consumption in four
5 October 2015
posts while the URB model only in two posts. For the sensitivity analysis to economic growth, three
Accepted 6 October 2015
future GDP evolution scenarios are proposed. The retrospective correlations of both models are excellent
but their future extrapolations nish in slightly different results. Through their correlation to electricity
Keywords: consumption, peak power forecasts are also presented. A forecast of the country energy intensity is
Energy consumption commented. As the average yearly increase of electricity should still be between 4.9% and 7.1% during
Energy-income correlation
20202030, the electric equipment program continuation after 2020 must soon be claried and avoid the
Energy intensity
former implementation delays. As the white combustibles needs should yearly increase between 6.3%
History and forecast
Developing country and 7.8% in 20202030, electrical equipment programs should also make provisions for the case of de-
Morocco ployment of electric cars. Butane subsidies widen the gap with other fuels and must be removed very
soon possible to reduce the growth of its consumption and energy intensity.
& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction confused with the notion of correlation which is a statistically

Economical sustainability is a critical issue for countries having
a very high energy dependence index like Morocco (495% in
19992008). More than for others, for a country so exposed to the
increase and volatility of the international primary energy prices,
the energy intensity must absolutely stay at the lowest level
possible.
1.1. General considerations
The notion of causality, related to variables having caused a
given phenomenon, is, from our point of view, often wrongly
n
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: sindibad@uca.ma (A. Bennouna).
established mathematical link between an observed phenomenon
and one or more variables. The existence of a correlation does not
necessarily mean that the variables are the cause of the observed
phenomenon, but that it adopts a mathematical behavior related
to the changes of the aforementioned variables. To analyze and
understand the behavior of the energy consumption of a given
country, macroeconomic aggregates offer a wide choice of vari-
ables chief of which is, in general, the gross domestic product, as
shown in Fig. 1. Its data are taken from the IMF, International
Monetary Fund (2010) and the US Department of Energy (2006).
Increasing energy costs and availability of more efcient
equipments for energy conversion (power plants, vehicles, light-
ing, household electrical appliances, etc.) both should moderate
the correlation of energy consumption and GDP. However, this
correlation remains strong in DCs because the process of access to
energy is incomplete (for their citizens and their production tools).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.003
0301-4215/& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
46 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555
Fig. 1. 2006 Energy and GDP adjusted for purchase power for 156 countries on left
scale in blue and its related average energy intensity on right scale in red. (For
interpretation of the references to color in this gure legend, the reader is referred
to the web version of this article.)
Electricity sold by utility (kWh/cap) Simulated Annual increase Simulated
900 kWh
800 kWh
700 kWh
600 kWh
500 kWh
400 kWh
300 kWh
200 kWh
100 kWh
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fig. 2. Evolution of electricity per capita called by the grid in Morocco (on left scale
in blue) and its related yearly increase (on right scale in red). (For interpretation of
the references to color in this gure legend, the reader is referred to the web
version of this article.)
Fig. 2 shows how, the 19952002 period was a turning point in
Morocco between two electricity consumption regimes: before
1995, it was increasing by around 11 kWh per year and per capita,
while after 2002, it went to a faster regime, increasing around
39 kWh per year and per capita, essentially (but not only) because
of the Global Rural Program of Electrication (PERG) grid exten-
sion. As this work is devoted to a segmented forecast of the
Moroccan energy consumption, the presence of such turning
points in the Moroccan past imposes to use historically well-es-
tablished correlations capable to transcend cyclical phenomena
like the one shown in Fig. 2. Its data are taken from the Moroccan
utility ONEE, Ofce National de llectricit (19962012a, 1996
2012b).
If a statistical quality index (like the correlation coefcient) of a
given retrospective correlation denes the precision of the model,
the duration of its past validity is a security for the model exten-
sion towards the future. This is why this work will use the oldest
available reliable data from Moroccan sources (from 1980 when
available, 1985 otherwise).
1.2. Quick literature overview and the positioning of this paper
1.2.1. On energy-income correlations
In a study of over more than hundred countries, Chontanawat
et al. (2008) found that the causal relationship between energy
consumption and economic growth is more pronounced in de-
veloped than in developing countries. But we hope that things
have changed in the last decade otherwise their energy efciency
policy efforts would be simply useless to reduce CO2 emissions
while continuing growing.
As Bruns and Gross (2012) have counted no less than 534
causality tests for 77 countries in 44 studies on the energy con-
sumption-economic growth nexus, it can be stated that the topic
has been intensively studied over the 35 last years, since Kraft and
Kraft (1978) article, which is recognized as seminal by most au-
thors. In addition, basing their remarks on 24 representative
publications on the topic (dated between 1978 and 2012), Coers
and Sanders (2013) have shown that a consensus on modeling has
still not emerged and that previous work to 2013 can broadly be
divided at least into:
1. Five categories of methodologies: simple causality tests, bi-
variate and multivariate Vector Error Correction (VEC) model in
addition to bivariate and multivariate panel VEC model.
2. Four categories of results: no causation, causation from energy
to GDP, causation from GDP to energy in addition to bidirec-
tional causation.
1.2.2. On energy intensity
8%
Analyzing several works, Adom (2015) highlighted two con-
7% trasting arguments concerning the effect of income increase on
6%
energy intensity:
5%
1. When dedicated to purchases of energy-using appliances, in-
4% come rises may result in energy intensity increases, except if the
3% purchase is used for energy efcient ones, where the energy
intensity may decrease. According to this argument, an income
2%
increase causes a scale effect.
1%
2. When dedicated for replacements of old equipment with en-
0% ergy-efcient ones, income rises may result in an energy in-
2015 tensity fall (income rise higher than energy use increase).
Developing countries have high economic growth rates and
Bernardini and Galli (1993) outlined three reasons why higher
income may slow down energy intensity:
1. First, rising income changes the nal demand structure, passing
through different industrialization phases.
2. Second, rising incomes or higher GDP leads to technological
progress that improves energy efciency.
3. Third, technological progress also leads to the usage of sub-
stitute equipment that is less energy intensive.
Overtime, the rebound effect argues that efciency gains may
lead to increase energy consumption.
Mixed income effects create the possibility of a nonlinear be-
havior, which opens another strand of the literature which has
focused on the nonlinear relationship between energy intensity
and income.
1.2.3. On energy-GDP studies including Morocco
Energy-income nexus of Morocco has been studied essentially
for comparison purposes with:
1. Senegal and Ghana by Adom et al. (2012) who found that
carbon dioxide emission acts as a limiting factor to economic
growth in Morocco and Ghana.
2. South Africa, by Mans (2014) who compared the links to local
green economies,
3. Other 4 North African countries by Marktannera and Salman
(2011) who argued that the identication of any energy alter-
native as superior is hardly convincing unless certain standards
of inclusive governance are met; they also highlighted the
politicaleconomic differences of energy importers like
Morocco,
4. Other 13 members of the Organization of Islamic Conference by
Gabbasa et al. (2013) who focused on their energy supply status
 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555
for sustainable development.
5. Other countries from the MENA Region:

Studying 14 countries, Omri (2013) showed that Morocco has
their lowest CO2 emissions and energy consumption as well
as the least energy consumption volatility and found that:

its energy consumption had an insignicant positive impact
on GDP and a signicant positive impact on CO2 emissions,

its GDP had a signicant positive impact on energy con-
sumption and an insignicant positive impact on CO2
emissions,

its CO2 emissions have an insignicant negative impact on
both GDP and energy consumption,

Studying 11 countries, Ozturk and Acaravci (2011) found that,
in Morocco, there is no cointegration between electricity
consumption and the income, making impossible to estimate
causal relationships within the dynamic VEC model.

Studying 24 countries, Tang and Abosedra (2014) studied the
impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political in-
stability on economic growth within the neoclassical growth
framework.
6. Other African countries:

Studying 24 countries, Wolde-Rufael (2005) found that, in
Morocco:

there was an opposite causality running from energy use to
economic growth,

energy use negatively impacts on economic growth.

Studying 24 countries, Wolde-Rufael (2006) found that, in
Morocco, there was:

a long-run relationship with GDP when electricity con-
sumption is the dependent variable,

a positive bi-directional causality (income demands more
electricity use and vice-versa).

Studying 24 countries, Wolde-Rufael (2009) conrmed that,
in Morocco, causality was reversed from energy consumption
to economic growth, to the opposite causality running from
economic growth to energy consumption.

Studying 21 countries, Eggoh et al. (2011) found that decreas-
ing energy consumption decreases growth and vice versa, and
that increasing energy consumption increases growth, and
vice versa, and that this applies for both energy exporters and
importers.

Studying 21 countries, Mandelli et al. (2014) depicted the
current energy situation of Africa, describing it as far as the
concept of sustainable development is concerned, and tried to
see if and how energy policies promoted by local players t
with this asset. They carried out overview of the energy-
related policies and action plans developed by different local
players in the African continent with the goal of providing
remarks by coupling such plans with the energy analysis.
7. Other countries, at the international level:

by Narayan and Popp (2012), who found that, in the 93
countries studied, Morocco is among the 44 having a sig-
nicant long-run causality relationships GDP to total primary
energy consumption.

by Apergis and Tang (2013) who found that, in the 85
countries studied, Morocco is among the 9 who reject the
strong support to the energy-local economic development
growth hypothesis.

by Bruns and Gross (2013), who found that in most of the 65
countries studied, the results of total energy-GDP causality
tests frequently coincide with the results of energy type
(electricity, petroleum products or Renewables)-GDP tests
and, that Morocco is among the 82% of countries for which
at least two energy-type GDP tests match with the total
47
energy-GDP test.
1.3. Positioning and limits of this paper
In the relation between income and energy consumption
shown in Fig. 1, if the average behavior is evident, the dispersal
around it is substantial because of a set of economic, climatic,
social and cultural factors, which describe the national speci-
cities. Unlike most other articles, GDP is here expressed in local
currency (Dirham, Dh) because there is no intend of benchmarking
but it is hoped from this work a local thought-provoking about the
Moroccan energy efciency policy by highlighting some of the
national problems arising in the 2030 forecasts of energy con-
sumption and its intensity.
Our results will show that, at the bottom line, it was possible to
transcend some cyclical phenomena (like the one shown in Fig. 2)
with relatively simple empirical correlative models. Of course, the
risk remains that the causality itself, between GDP and energy
consumption (and vice versa) will be missing but we have shown
that already several authors have studied this.
Doubtless, cyclical causes can describe better causality phe-
nomena but we think that, to be precise, they require multiple
hypotheses and variables as well as very big samples of time-
series data. Rather than this, a limited number of macroeconomic
variables and hypotheses will be used here but still keeping the
exigency of an acceptable long-lasting historical energy-GDP cor-
relation (2735 years back) to be used to forecast energy con-
sumption in Morocco to 2030 (18 years forward) and to extract
some comments and their consequences.
Given the limits of this article scope, we avoided the dilemma
of the chicken and the egg induced, sometimes, by the use of the
causality concept and we will limit ourselves to the correlation
one. Here, it is not pretended, neither arguing about theories of
the energy-income nexus, nor having a deep enough expertize to
do it.
2. Methods
Except when duly mentioned, all our numbers come from
Moroccan national sources: the states bank, Bank Almaghrib
(19862012), who publishes a yearly report containing the energy
consumption segments used here, or the national Direction de la
Statistique (19832010) or the national Haut Commissariat au Plan
(2015). One of the authors keeps updated what is the most com-
plete private database about energy in Morocco allowing him to
write a book on the topic, Bennouna (2011).
2.1. Global approach of the work
In this paper we will:
1. present the few mathematical models used here for the coun-
try-level energy intensity analysis,
2. introduce the concept of the partial energy intensity for each
nal energy segment,
3. use the mathematical models that historically work best on this
partial energy intensity,
4. extrapolate the models into the future to get forecasts of partial
energy intensities,
5. use these lasts to calculate forecasts of needs in terms of nal
energy segments.
2.2. Correlative models based on energy intensity (IE model)
Economical sustainability is a critical issue for countries, like
48 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555
Morocco, having an important energy dependence index. In this
view, an important aggregate is the energy intensity which must
stay at a sustainable level for the country economy.
2.2.1. Introduction
Energy intensity (I) is dened as the ratio of energy con-
sumption (E) to the value added (P) it contributes to create, the
Gross Domestic Product in our case. Energy intensity is smaller for
countries having an efcient economic activity but also for those
having an important share of services in their GNP. In the specic
case of Morocco, the primary sector generates around 16% of GDP,
the secondary 29% and the tertiary 55%. In developed countries,
competition requirements are imposed by globalization and en-
ergy intensity may tend to decrease over time, sometimes even
with a growing GDP. But this does not stand for countries (mainly
DCs) that are still in the implementation phase of the access to
energy for the benet of their citizens and their economic
production.
2.2.1.1. Power function behavior (IE-POW). In this model, it is con-
sidered that, during a given time interval, energy intensity varies
with GDP according to a power function:
I = (E/P ) = . (P Po)n
Where Po is the GDP generated without the use of energy E, is
a constant whose unit depends on the exponent n, which char-
acterizes the variation mode of I with P:
1. When n is bigger or equal to 1: energy intensity I increases at
least as fast as the income, with respectively a concave (J-shape)
or linear shape, but economic sustainability prevents such a
model to settle indenitely,
2. When n is positive but smaller than 1: energy intensity I in-
creases more slowly than income, with a convex shape, ensur-
ing access to energy without destabilizing too much the coun-
try's economy, but such a behavior is not sustainable in the very
long term, as the energy still increases faster than income,
3. When n 0, energy intensity I is constant and ensures an energy
consumption E following income: even if it looks as a perennial
model, it is not a competitive behavior in an environment of
global race for energy efciency,
4. When n is negative, energy intensity I decreases with income
and this is the most appropriate behavior to face global eco-
nomic competition and climate change challenges.
In terms of mathematical method, after a graphical visualiza-
tion of I against P:
1. For graphs apparently going to Po E0, the coefcient () and
exponent (n) can be simply extracted from a loglog re-
presentation of I against P (or even E which should vary like E.
Pn 1).
2. For graphs apparently going to Po0, we seek the Po value for
which we obtain an optimal linear t of ln(I) against ln(P Po).
2.2.1.2. Exponential behavior (IE-EXP). Although the modernization
of the productive sector and the need for citizens comfort led to
an energy intensity increasing with income, this increase cannot
continue indenitely because it would become economically un-
sustainable, especially when primary energy prices grow. The need
for mathematical models that describe correlations directing en-
ergy intensity to a ceiling naturally drives towards exponential
functions:
I = (E/P ) = I{1 exp[ (P Po)/a]}
Where I1 represents the energy intensity achieved if the model
could last innitely, Po, the GDP generated without the use of
energy E, and , a coefcient which characterizes the leading edge
of the intensity energy against GDP and having the same unit than
the GDP.
In terms of mathematical method: ln1  (I/I1) is calculated
and the value of I1 is changed until obtaining an optimal linear
behavior.
2.2.2. Retrospective partial energy intensities of Morocco (IE
MODEL)
For Morocco, there are still no ofcial series on energy con-
sumption by sector. Thus, there is no question, for the time being,
of going to a sector analysis without making risky assumptions in
the segmentation.
However, we venture in this work with an analysis of the nal
energy by applying the previous analytical behavior to partial
energy intensities, due to specic segments of the nal energy:
I = Ielectricity + Iwhite combustibles + Ibutane + Iothers
I = (Eelec/P ) + (Ewhi.comb./P ) + (Ebutane/P ) + (Eothers/P )
It will be voluntarily chosen to represent GDP in MDh (million
Dirham) or GDh (billion Dirham) 2012 constant prices, the most
telling unit for money for the more recent data used, although a
different reference year would have changed nothing. Over 2002
2012, one Dh counted for about 0.09 .
2.2.2.1. Electricity. Hereafter we call electricity the net electrical
energy called annually by the entire Moroccan power grid. We will
just take this, even if it is true that it would have been better to
consider the electricity delivered to customers; but reaching this
last would have required the grid annual performance, its yearly
uctuations and a forecast for it too. Unfortunately all contribu-
tions to the Moroccan grid performance are not known in the
terms needed for this study.
Calculated on the basis of an average thermal energy conver-
sion factor around 0.243 (2011), electric power, with its
7.438 Mtoe, is the rst post of the nal energy consumption, ex-
ceeding slightly 39.8% of the total for 2012.
Fig. 3 shows the behavior of electricity in Morocco against GDP
(blue diamonds related to the left scale), and its partial energy
intensity (red squares related to the right scale). The absence of a
plateau in the curve I(P) suggests avoiding the exponential
function model. That is why the simulations shown in the graph
are obtained after the intensity I(E) has been adjusted using I a.
(P  Po)n.
Like shown in Fig. 4, the mathematical adjustment of electricity
by the power function (n 0.531 and Po 23.5 GDh) is provided
Fig. 3. Simulation of electricity by the IE-POW model. (For interpretation of the
references to color in this gure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of
this article.)
 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555 49

Butane gas (Mtoe) Simulated Intensity (toe/MDh 2012) Simulated

2,4 3,0

2,0 2,5

Energy intensity (toe/MDh)

2005

2010
1,6 2,0

Energy (Mtoe)

2000
1,2 1,5

1995
0,8 1,0

0,4 0,5

1990
1985
0,0 0,0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
GNP (constant 2012 MDh)

Fig. 4. loglog representation: electricity on left scale in blue and white combus- Fig. 6. Simulation of butane consumption with the IE-POW model. (For inter-
tibles on right scale in red. (For interpretation of the references to color in this pretation of the references to color in this gure, the reader is referred to the web
gure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) version of this article.)

with a correlation coefcient of 99.1% despite the sharp regime are obtained after the intensity I(E) is adjusted by the behavior
change in consumption per capita at the end 1990s described I .(P  Po)n.
earlier (Fig. 2). Indeed, it is difcult to distinguish, as in Fig. 3, a Like shown in Fig. 4, the mathematical adjustment of the white
singularity between the periods before the PERG (before 1996) and fuels energy by the power function (n 0.137 and Po 0) is pro-
that which followed it (after 2002). In our view, this can only be vided with a correlation coefcient of 97.1% justifying the choice of
explained by an increment of GDP which the rural electrication the power function with Po 0.
program (PERG) had himself created, leaving this timeless re-
presentation in a continuous mode. 2.2.2.3. Butane. As being the third post of the nal energy con-
sumption in Morocco, butane represented 11.9% of the total in
2.2.2.2. White liquid combustibles. White fuels accounted for 36.6% 2011.
of total shares in 2011. With the growing shares of electricity, they Fig. 6 shows the behavior against GDP of butane energy con-
stood behind electricity since 2002, in the second position of the sumed in Morocco (blue diamonds related to the left scale) and
nal energy consumption in Morocco. simulation, after his energy intensity (red squares related to the
White fuels are primarily used in transport though marginally right scale) has been adjusted by the exponential behavior
in the agricultural pumping and generators: I1{1  exp[  (P  Po)/]}, given the shape of the curve and the
appearance of a plateau.
1. Diesel which represents 29.2% of the total in 2011 has a caloric The correlation coefcient of the adjustment reached 99.7% for
value of 1.01 toe per ton, Po 234 GDh and I1 2.69 toe/MDh.
2. Premium gasoline which represents 3.7% of the total in 2011 has
a caloric value of 1.07 toe per ton, 2.2.2.4. Other energies. We have named Other, the remainder of
3. Aviation fuels accounted for 3.7% of the total in 2011 have a the nal energy (11.4% of total nal energy in 2011) containing
caloric value of 1.03 toe per ton, fuels, mainly for professional uses and heat production, which are
4. Regular gasoline which supply disappeared since 2006 has a therefore not used in electricity power plants:
caloric value of 1.05 toe per ton.
1. Coal, which represents 4.35% of the total in 2011 with a caloric
Fig. 5 shows the behavior of white fuels energy consumed in value of 0.66 toe per ton,
Morocco (blue diamonds related to the left scale) against GDP, as 2. Fuel oil, which represents 5.64% of the total in 2011 with a ca-
well as their partial energy intensity (red squares related to the loric value of 0.99 toe per ton,
right scale). Their masses were previously converted into toe with 3. Propane, representing 1.16% of the total in 2011 with a caloric
the above mentioned typical caloric values. The absence of a value of 1.10 toe per ton,
plateau in the curve I(P) suggests, also here, to avoid the ex- 4. Natural gas, which represents 0.22% of the total in 2011 with a
ponential function model, so the simulations shown in the graph caloric value of 0.86 toe per m3.

White combustibles (Mtoe) Simulated Intensity (toe/MDh 2012) Simulated Fig. 7 shows the behavior, against GDP, of other nal energies
8 8
consumed in the country (blue diamonds related to the left scale).
In view of the decreasing shape, the simulations shown in the
2010

6 6 graph (lines) are obtained after the intensity (red squares related
Energy intensity (toe/MDh)

to right scale) has been properly adjusted by the behavior I .

2005

(P  Po)n.
Energy (Mtoe)

2000

4 4
1995

The correlation coefcient of the adjustment of these con-

sumed Other Energy reached 92.9% for n  0.504.
1985
1980

2 2
1990

2.2.2.5. Comments. By observing the concavity (or convexity) of

0 0
the blue curves of energies against GDP, it is easy to note that:
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
GNP (GDh 2012) 1. 23% of energy consumption in 2011, represented by the fuel
Fig. 5. Simulation of white fuels consumption with the IE-POW model. (For in-
thermal applications (sum of butane and Other thermal), is
terpretation of the references to color in this gure legend, the reader is referred to growing more slowly than GDP,
the web version of this article.) 2. 77% of energy consumption in 2011, represented by the sum of
50 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555

Other energies (Mtep) Simulated Intensity (toe/MDh 2012) Simulated

2,4 4,8

2010
2005
2,0 4,0

1995

Energy intensity (toe/MDh)

1,6 3,2

1985
Energy (Mtoe)

2000
1,2 2,4

1990
0,8 1,6

0,4 0,8

0,0 0,0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
GNP (constant 2012 MDh)
Fig. 8. Correlation between (urbanization  GDPm) and both electric and not
Fig. 7. Simulation of other energies consumption with the IE-POW model. (For
electric energies. (For interpretation of the references to color in this gure, the
interpretation of the references to color in this gure, the reader is referred to the
reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
web version of this article.)

related to the right scale) the linear relationship between non-

electricity and white fuels (mainly used for transport) continues
electric energy and the product of the urbanization of the country
to grow faster than GDP. Because of this, these two are the posts
(in% of the population) by the constant GDP raised to the 0.758.
of energy that could endanger the energy efciency of Morocco.
The exponent required for linearization, was also adjusted so that
the least squares straight line is optimal and the slope (10.121)
2.3. Correlative model based on a link to urbanization (URB model)
matches the actual non-electric energy consumption at year 2012
With m 0.758, the correlation coefcient of the adjustment of
This model considers that it is the combination of urbanization
the electricity reaches 99.0%.
and the countrys revenue that lead to energy consumption. Not
that the countryside is outside the scheme but that direct and
2.4. Correlative model for electricity peak power
indirect energy consumption drivers are in town. The model
consists on considering that the energy consumption is propor-
Once a year, and for a short time (in summer, since several
tional to urbanization rate and GDP in the form:
years now), the electric power demand of the Moroccan power
E = e(U x P m) grid reaches its annual maximum. This peak power is extremely
important because, to avoid power cuts, local electric power ca-
where is a constant not depending on time and the exponent
pacities plus interconnections with neighboring countries must
m are to be dened.
secure this power demand.
In terms of mathematical method: the product of the urbani-
Annual power peaks are directly correlated to the annual
zation rate and the constant GDP (U  Pm) is normalized to its
electric energy as shown in Fig. 9 which shows a linear relation-
value in the last year (2012) in order to have an abscissa stopping
ship passing through the origin.
at 100%.
The correlation coefcient of the t of the peak power as a
Initially addressed to the energy work group Prospective
function of yearly electrical energy demand is therefore 99.5% with
Morocco 2030, Haut Commissariat au Plan (2007), this model was
a coefcient 0.1779 MW/GWh per year will be used directly in our
only recently published by Bennouna (2011). Here, it has been
hereafter forecast.
updated with later data to 2005. The scope of using such a model
here is:
2.5. Temporal pattern of GDP
1. to check that it is still valid after updating,
2. to compare its extrapolations with the energy intensity model In order to make energy consumption forecast, a model for
ones (chapter 2.2.2). future GDP growth is indispensable. To do this, a retrospective
model is rst established as follows:
Here, we could split the energy consumption only in 2 parts:
electrical energy and the rest of the nal energy consumption, 1. The variation of GDP over time t, P(t), is rst smoothed, by a
referred to as non-electric. polynomial (6th degree in this case) to optimally adjust the

E = (Eelec ) + (Enon elec )

2.3.1. Retrospective Simulation of energy in Morocco (URB model)

2.3.1.1. Electricity. Fig. 8 shows (in blue diamonds related to the
left scale) the linear relationship between electricity and the
product of the urbanization of the country (in % of the population)
by constant GDP raised to the power 1.284. The exponent required
for linearization, was adjusted so that the least squares straight
line is optimal and that the slope (29.97 TWh) matches the actual
electric consumption at year 2012.
With m 1.284, the correlation coefcient of the adjustment of
the electricity reaches 99.70%.
Fig. 9. Linear correlation between yearly maximum power and electric energy
2.3.1.2. Non-electric energy. Fig. 8 also shows (in red squares consumption.
 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555 51

GNP (GDh 2012) Simulated Annual increase Simulated GNP (GDh 2012), LOW GNP GNP (GDh 2012), AVE GNP GNP (GDh 2012), HIG GNP
850 GDh 12% Annual increase, LOW GNP Annual increase, AVE GNP Annual increase, HIG GNP
2 000 GDh 4,75%

730 GDh 8% 1 800 GDh 4,50%

1 600 GDh 4,25%

610 GDh 4% 1 400 GDh 4,00%

1 200 GDh 3,75%
490 GDh 0% 1 000 GDh 3,50%
800 GDh 3,25%
370 GDh -4% 600 GDh 3,00%
400 GDh 2,75%
250 GDh -8% 200 GDh 2,50%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Fig. 10. Historical analysis of GDP. (For interpretation of the references to color in Fig. 11. Denition of three GDP scenarios used. (For interpretation of the references
this gure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) to color in this gure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Table 1
entire period 19802012 (blue diamonds related to the left scale Summary of the 3 GDP scenarios, gures in GDh.
of Fig. 10):
Scenario Average of A 20122030 2010 2020 2030
P (t ) = i = 0 ci. t i
LOW 3.8% 755 1163 1622
where ci are the seven constant coefcients of the polynomial. AVE 4.2% 755 1171 1727
HIG 4.6% 755 1178 1839
1. Calculation of the average past growth Ap(t) is obtained from the
logarithmic derivative, [dP(t)/dt]/P(t), of the above polynomial.
calculated and also shown in Fig. 11 (blue lines related to the left
The results are represented by the red curve related to the right
scale).
scale of Fig. 10 which is itself given by:
These three scenarios have no other aim than to be in con-
A p (t ) = i = 1 i. ci. t i 1/ i = 0 ci. t i tinuity with the past and to assess future energy consumption.
However, as GDP data obtained represent the input for the fol-
Fig. 10 also shows the actual annual growth (red squares related lowing forecast, we summarize them in Table 1 (in GDh, in 2012
to the right scale) and explains why we have adjusted the GDP prices):
instead of the annual growth, with its huge uctuations (mainly
due to the dependence of the agricultural GDP to rainfall). 3.2. Energy forecast IE models

3.2.1. Non-electric energy

3. Results To avoid too much graphs, we only show the planned changes
obtained with the medium scenario of the structure of non-elec-
3.1. The 3 scenarios of GDP forecasts tric energy obtained using models based on the adjustment of
energy intensity (Fig. 12). Detailed numbers are shown in Table 2.
A future evolution of the economic growth Af(t) is assumed to Note that the share of white fuels in non-electric energy would
be parabolic: increase from 59% in 2010 to nearly 66% by 2030 This, of course,
unless the introduction of electric cars in mass to disturb that
Af (t ) = d0 + d1. t + d2. t evolution would lead to transfer part of 9.4 Mtoe in 2020 or
where t is the time (year) and dj three constant coefcients 14.6 Mtoe in 2030 to electricity which is already the heaviest nal
energy position, with all what that implies in revising to the
which have to be determined with three different equations. Pla-
electrical power generation plans.
cing two constraints gives two continuity equations between Ap(t)
Because part of the rural Moroccan world is still in the process
and Af(t):
of replacing rewood by butane gas, this last is still growing of
close to 1.6 kg/capita per year as shown by Bennouna (2011). Bu-
1. continuity of A(t) in year 2012: Af(t) Ap(t),
tane gas also enjoys great popularity because:
2. continuity of its derivative in year 2012: [dAf(t)/dt] [dAp(t)/dt].
White combustibles (Mtoe) [IE, AVE) Butane gas (Mtoe) [IE, AVE) Other energies (Mtoe) [IE, AVE)
The third equation comes from growth value hypothesis at year
100%
2030. Three scenarios are developed for 2030:
2,90
2,65
2,41
2,18

80%
4,66
3,86

1. Af(t) increases up to 4.7% on 2030, the highest value of the past

3,16
2,53

period (red dotted line related to the right scale of Fig. 11, 60%
scenario HIG)
2. Af(t) decreases down to 2.7%, the lowest value of the past period 40%
14,41
11,66

(solid red line related to the right scale on Fig. 11, LOW
9,32
7,34

scenario), 20%
3. Af(t) achieves 3.7% which is the average of the previous two
extremes (discontinuous red line related to the right scale of 0%
2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Fig. 11, scenario AVG).

Fig. 12. Evolution forecast of the structure of non-electric energy (IE model, AVG
Finally, the GDP evolution for each of the 3 future scenarios is scenario).
52 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555

Table 2 110 TWh 30 Mtoe

Comparison of results obtained with the two models for the 3 scenarios. 100 TWh Electricity (TWh) [IE, LOW]
28 Mtoe
Electricity (TWh) [IE, AVE]
90 TWh Electricity (TWh) [IE, HIG] 26 Mtoe
Simulation Models GDP 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-electric energy (Mtoe) [IE, LOW]
80 TWh 24 Mtoe
Non-electric energy (Mtoe) [IE, AVE]
White combustibles IE LOW 7.359 9.320 11.472 13.587 70 TWh Non-electric energy (Mtoe) [IE, HIG] 22 Mtoe
(Mtoe) AVE 7.362 9.384 11.793 14.591
60 TWh 20 Mtoe
HIG 7.366 9.448 12.122 15.663
Butane (Mtoe) IE LOW 2.532 3.126 3.756 4.360 50 TWh 18 Mtoe
AVE 2.533 3.145 3.848 4.643 40 TWh 16 Mtoe
HIG 2.534 3.164 3.943 4.942 30 TWh 14 Mtoe
Other thermal (Moe) IE LOW 2.221 2.463 2.697 2.904
20 TWh 12 Mtoe
AVE 2.222 2.470 2.730 2.996
HIG 2.222 2.478 2.763 3.090 10 TWh 10 Mtoe
Non-electric energy IE LOW 12.112 14.909 17.925 20.851 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(Mtoe) AVE 12.117 14.999 18.371 22.229
Fig. 13. Evolution forecast of energies obtained with the IE model.
HIG 12.122 15.090 18.828 23.694
URB LOW 11.723 14.175 16.730 19.168
AVE 11.726 14.240 17.041 20.102 110 TWh 30 Mtoe
Electricity (TWh) [URB, LOW]
HIG 11.730 14.305 17.357 21.077 100 TWh 28 Mtoe
Electricity (TWh) [URB, AVE]
Electricity (TWh) IE LOW 39.178 54.272 72.211 91.046 90 TWh Electricity (TWh) [URB, HIG] 26 Mtoe
AVE 39.203 54.786 74.996 100.374 Non-electric energy (Mtoe) [URB, LOW]
HIG 39.228 55.305 77.877 110.582 80 TWh Non-electric energy (Mtoe) [URB, AVE]
24 Mtoe

URB LOW 39.259 52.959 68.821 85.278 70 TWh Non-electric energy (Mtoe) [URB, HIG] 22 Mtoe
AVE 39.280 53.371 71.002 92.438 60 TWh 20 Mtoe
HIG 39.301 53.786 73.245 100.151
50 TWh 18 Mtoe
Total nal energy (Mtoe) IE LOW 22.298 29.019 36.700 44.523
AVE 22.310 29.244 37.870 48.326 40 TWh 16 Mtoe
HIG 22.322 29.469 39.076 52.445 30 TWh 14 Mtoe
URB LOW 21.115 26.845 33.195 39.570
20 TWh 12 Mtoe
AVE 21.124 27.009 34.028 42.218
HIG 21.133 27.173 34.880 45.038 10 TWh 10 Mtoe
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy intensity (toe/ IE LOW 23.59 24.93 26.26 27.44
MDh) AVE 23.59 24.97 26.44 27.97 Fig. 14. Evolution forecast of energies obtained with the URB model.
HIG 23.60 25.02 26.63 28.52
URB LOW 22.34 23.06 23.75 24.39
AVE 22.34 23.07 23.76 24.44 3.4. Maximum peak powers obtained by both IE and URB models
HIG 22.34 23.07 23.77 24.49
Electric peak power (GW) IE LOW 6.99 9.69 12.89 16.25 Since November 2009, Morocco launched successively the
AVE 7.00 9.78 13.39 17.92
HIG 7.00 9.87 13.90 19.74
Moroccan Solar Plan (PSM, 2 GW) and the Moroccan Integrated
URB LOW 7.00 9.45 12.28 15.22 Wind Energy Plan (PMIEE, 2 GW) that will help to lower some-
AVE 7.01 9.53 12.67 16.50 what the energy dependence index of Morocco (above 95% from
HIG 7.02 9.60 13.07 17.88
1999 to 2008) using domestic renewable resources. But the in-
termittent nature of these sources can still not be relied upon fa-
cing the demand at peak hours (still in evening in the major part of
1. it is almost the exclusive energy source for cooking, the year). The best future we can hope for this renewable elec-
2. it is also used for irrigation water pumping, tricity is to be exported to Europe under any green electricity tariff,
3. above all, it is subsidized by the Compensation Fund when even importing not-green electricity in counterpart cheaper,
packaged in less than 12 kg per bottle. of course.
Fig. 15 shows the evolution curves of the yearly electric peak
It is difcult to predict to what extent the forecast related to power obtained using the linear correlation shown in Fig. 9 when
butane (Fig. 12 or others) would be amended without knowing the combining the two models with the three scenarios (Fig. 13 and
details of the expected subsidies redeployment Government plans. Fig. 14):
Other thermal energy needs represent about 2.5 Mtoe in
2020 and nearly 3 Mtoe in 2030. The natural gas plan, currently 1. LOW: 15.216.2 GW in 2030, according to the adopted model,
under design, Fdration Nationale de lEnergie (2012), has to be 2. AVG: 16.517.9 GW in 2030, according to the adopted model,
considered a substitute of part of Other thermal. 3. HIG: 17.919.7 GW in 2030, according to the adopted model.

3.2.2. Electric and non-electric energies 20 GW

Yearly maximum electric power (GW) [IE, LOW]
Fig. 13 shows the planned changes of both electrical and non- 18 GW Yearly maximum electric power (GW) [IE, AVE]

electrical parts of the energy obtained by extrapolating the models
based on the adjustment of energy intensity (non-electric being
the sum of those represented in Fig. 12). Detailed numbers are
Yearly maximum electric power (GW) [IE, HIG]
16 GW Yearly maximum electric power (GW) [URB, LOW]
Yearly maximum electric power (GW) [URB, AVE]
14 GW
Yearly maximum electric power (GW) [URB, HIG]

shown in Table 2. 12 GW

10 GW
3.3. Energy forecast URB model 8 GW

3.3.1. Electric and non-electric energies 6 GW

Fig. 14 shows the planned changes in electrical and non-elec- 4 GW

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
trical parts of the energy obtained when extrapolating the urba-
nization-based model. Detailed numbers are shown in Table 2. Fig. 15. Predictive evolution of power peaks arising from different models.
 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555 53

Actual energy intensity (toe/MDh) Simulated [IE, GNP LOW IES] Table 3
Simulated [IE, GNP AVE IES] Simulated [IE, GNP HIG IES]
Summary of results with range for each scenario of economic growth.
28

Simulation Model PIB 2015 2020 2025 2030

26
Energy intensity (toe/MDh)

Non-elec- IE and LOW 11.712.1 14.214.9 16.717.9 19.220.9

24
tric en- URB AVE 11.712.1 14.215 1718.4 20.122.2
ergy HIG 11.712.1 14.315.1 17.418.8 21.123.7
22
(Mtoe)
Electricity IE and LOW 39.239.3 5354.3 68.872.2 85.391
20
(TWh) URB AVE 39.239.3 53.454.8 7175 92.4100.4
HIG 39.239.3 53.855.3 73.277.9 100.2110.6
18
Total nal IE and LOW 21.122.3 26.829 33.236.7 39.644.5
energy URB AVE 21.122.3 2729.2 3437.9 42.248.3
16
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (Mtoe) HIG 21.122.3 27.229.5 34.939.1 4552.4
Energy in- IE and LOW 22.323.6 23.124.9 23.726.3 24.427.4
Fig. 16. Predictive evolution of overall energy intensity. tensity URB AVE 22.323.6 23.125 23.826.4 24.428
(toe/ HIG 22.323.6 23.125 23.826.6 24.528.5
MDh)
Electric IE and LOW 6.997.00 9.459.69 12.2812.89 15.2216.25
The values obtained are shown in Table 2. Extreme values peak URB AVE 7.007.01 9.539.78 12.6713.39 16.5017.9
shown in the document of the national energy strategy for 2030 power HIG 7.007.02 9.609.87 13.0713.90 17.8819.74
offer a wider range within which lie all our results, namely: (GW)

1. 12 GW, for its lowest scenario, Ministre de lEnergie, des Mines,

de lEau et lEnvironnement (2009), is below our lowest model/
scenario combination,
2. 20 GW, for its disruptive scenario, Ministre de lEnergie, des
Mines, de lEau et lEnvironnement (2009), is above our higher
model/scenario combination.
The presentation of these results could not be avoided here.
However, comparing these yearly electric peak power forecasts
with the equipment plan provided by the concerned national in-
stitutions, alone accounts for another job
3.5. Energy intensity
Fig. 16 shows the planned changes in energy intensity with the
IE models (Fig. 14) combined with the three GDP scenarios in
(Fig. 11).
Between 2010 and 2020, the 3 scenarios are similar and lead to
an average increase in energy intensity of around 1% per annum.
Between 2020 and 2030, the 3 scenarios lead respectively to an-
nual average growth of 0.8%, 1% and 1.2% per annum.
4. Discussion
IE models yielded higher values than those obtained by the
URB model predictions.
Failing to be affordable to all, most of the energy is becoming
geographically available throughout Morocco and we do not see
why a model based on urbanization (URB) would be perpetuated.
So, even if it is clear that the URB model gives results close to the
IE model, we would rather go in favor of the IE model which seems
more universal. So, rather than sweeping the URB by this simple
consideration, it is permissible to consider that both models (IE
and URB) give the extremes of a range of values, which we present
in Table 3 for each of our 3 scenarios. In Table 3, the total nal
energy is calculated by summing the non-electrical energy to
electricity, previously converted in Mtoe based on the average
thermal conversion factor of electricity in Morocco: 0.243 toe/
MWh (2011).
In essence, the models remain consistent with the spirit of
continuity scenario, called S1, of Morocco Energy Prospective
2030 of the Haut Commissariat au Plan (2007) but, ve years later,
the present work has helped to add a sensitivity analysis to eco-
nomic growth scenarios starting from the year 2012. In the Haut
Commissariat au Plan (2007) document:
1. The forecasts made in 2007 of a total energy requirement to 42
Mtoe, 43 Mtoe or our previous 42.3 Mtoe, in Bennouna (2011),
for 2030 are consistent with the results obtained with the
medium scenario (see Table 3),
2. Former forecast of 95 TWh in electricity, by the Ministre de
lEnergie, des Mines, de lEau et lEnvironnement (2009) is
consistent with our high scenario but our old forecast at 83.8
TWh, in Bennouna (2011), even based on economic growth of
4.4%, is now located near the low income growth scenario.
Fig. 17 shows the evolution of the cost of weighted average of
fossil fuels toe imported into Morocco (coal, and hydrocarbons).
The data after 1993 have been downloaded from the Ofce des
Changes (1993 to 2010) while earlier data are from El Ouadi
(2002).
The average curve of Fig. 17 started from a value oscillating
around 1240Dh/toe between 1986 and 1999 to multiply by 3 in
the last decade and reach nearly 3700 Dh/toe in 2010, an average
growth rate near to 10% in current value and 8.5% in constant
value! Even if GDP growth in Morocco has exceeded this value (6
times, all of them before 1997), its economy has never held such a
stride. Thus, with unit fuel prices growth of 8.5% weighed by 0.8
1.2% growth in energy intensity, it is difcult to imagine how the
Moroccan economy can absorb such a net energy bill increase.
Unfortunately, fuel costs are not depending on Morocco wishes,
and without inventing the gunpowder, we have to emphasize here
the urgent need for energy efciency measures to absorb, at least,
the impact of the increase in the energy intensity.
The sum of white fuels and electricity accounted for 76.4% of
the energy consumption of Morocco at the end of 2011. They must
Net cost of imported energetic products (Dh/toe)
6 000
5 000
4 000
+9,3% per y
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Fig. 17. Costs, in current value, of energy products imported to Morocco.
54 A. Bennouna, C. El Hebil / Energy Policy 88 (2016) 4555
represent the main target of any energy efciency action because if
they account for nearly three quarters of the nal energy con-
sumption, but their share is increasing respectively 1,531 and 1,137
times faster than GDP at constant prices (Fig. 4). Ideally, the energy
as a function of constant GDP should become convex, or at least
linear, to keep constant the energy intensity.
In light of future new information, we plan, every ve years, to
re-adjust historical data and update the extended resulting
forecasts.
5. Conclusions and policy implications
In essence, the prediction models adopted are not disruptive
and based on macroeconomic correlations; they turn out nally
rather simple, considering the real complexity of the problem.
5.1. Electricity

As shown in Table 3, electricity is the nal energy which will
have the higher increase between 2015 and 2030 (between
130 and 160% more). As Morocco cannot bet on the
hydroelectricity load factor neither on its stability, to avoid
substantial electricity imports during years of low rainfall. Even
if the electrical equipment program for 2020 is known:
1.
Five years before 2020, the stakeholders have still not claried
its continuation for 20202030, even if the forecasted average
increase for the period lies between 4.9% and 7.2% yearly
(calculated from extreme scenarios of Table 3).
2.
Measures should be taken to avoid past delays in its im-
plementation. In the last twenty years, each delay in the
electric equipment program has forced to import more elec-
tricity (essentially from Spain through the Gibraltar Straight
Euro-Moroccan grid interconnection) each year in which hy-
droelectricity could not cover the decit.

As shown by Bennouna (2015), the global grid efciency has lost
approximately 2% in the twenty years, between the 1990s and
the 2010s. The ideal would be to return to the situation of early
1990s, even with the larger grid. This fully justies the alloca-
tions to improve electrical network performance included in the
Program Agreement signed in 2014 between the Government
and the National Utility. If the two missing points (88.586.5%)
could be recovered it is, at current rate, almost 650 GWh of
injected net electricity which could be saved, equivalent to:
1.
Nearly 400 million Dh (44 MUS$) annually avoided coal elec-
tricity purchases from IPP,
2.
The 2013 production of the 204 MW of public wind parks
which cost nearly 3 billion Dh (330 MUS$).
5.2. White combustibles

The need for family of white combustibles should almost double
between 2015 and 2030.

There is still no scenario considering a fast deployment of
electric cars, if this happens signicantly in the country in the
next 15 years, electrical equipment programs should make
provisions for this. The counterpart of this should reduce the
need for white combustibles.
5.3. Butane and the possible arrival of local natural gas

The need for butane should increase by between 70 and
95% more from 2015 to 2030. It seems that the present
combination of formal/informal distribution channels of 3 to
12 kg butane bottles is efcient enough to face such an increase.
The most probable cause of the growth of butane needs is that
these popular sizes of bottle are subsidized and, with the prices
set for a long time (0.35 US$ per kg), the gap with other fuels
widens. Not only to ease public funds, subsidies of butane must
be removed as soon as possible to reduce the growth of its
consumption and contribute to reduce energy intensity.

Between 2012 and 2014, Morocco used 95% of its natural gas
needs for electricity generation but produced less than 5.5% of
it. Even if recent natural gas discoveries in the Gharb (about 40
ktoe per year) will change signicantly this last gure, they are
still small with respect to the national needs (21,000 ktoe). But
if natural gas discoveries continue, it is not impossible to ima-
gine, a natural gas network substituting butane gas bottles in
big cities like Casablanca or others, then, some recommenda-
tions of the Symposium on Natural Gas by the Fdration Na-
tionale de lEnergie (2012) should be very seriously considered.
In this case, scenarios with partial substitution of butane by
natural gas should be considered.
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