Chapter 6: Population and Development

6.1 Reassessing the Demographic Transition

I. The demographic transition describes the shift from high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates that has taken place over time in the industrialized countries.
A. There are great disparities in economic growth among developing countries, with
43% of the developing countries experiencing a decline in per capita gross
national income. These same countries have the most rapid growth in population.
B. The now-developed nations came through the demographic transition without
becoming impoverished because the improvements in disease control that lowered
death rates occurred gradually through the 1800s and early 1900s.
industrialization, which introduced factors that lowered fertility, occurred over the
same period. Therefore, there was never a huge discrepancy between birth and
death rates.
C. In contrast, modern medicine was introduced to the developing world relatively
suddenly, bringing about a precipitous decline in death rates, while the fertility-
lowering effects of development have been slow to arrive.
II. There are two basic theories about what developing countries can do to get through the
demographic transition.
A. If we speed up economic development in the high-growth countries, population
growth will slow down automatically, as it did in the developed countries.
B. We need to concentrate on population policies and family-planning technologies
to bring down birthrates.
C. There is wide agreement that women’s rights to health care, education, and
employment is foundational to achieving slower population growth; development
must be linked to a reduction in poverty; the existing poverty in the developing
countries should not be tolerated; and both poverty and development are a threat
to the health of the environment, and only sustainable development will prevent
further impoverishment.
III. As birthrates decline, the working-age population increases relative to the younger and
older members of the population. This relationship is known as the dependency ratio
and is defined as the ratio of the nonworking population to the working-age
population.
A. For a time, society can spend less on schools and old-age medical expenses and
more on factors that alleviate poverty and general economic growth—a
demographic dividend.
Large Families or Small?
I. The fertility transition is the most vital element in the demographic transition. High
fertility and poverty are linked. There are several main reasons why people in poor
countries tend to have more children.
 1. Security in old age. A traditional custom and need—because there is no safety net
—in most developing countries, is that old people will be cared for by their
children. Therefore, a primary reason given by poor women in developing nations
for desiring many children is to ensure care in old age.
2. Infant and child mortality. Closely coupled with the desire for security in old age
is the experience of high infant and child mortality. The common experience of
children dying leads people to try to make sure that some of their children will
survive to adulthood.
3. Helping hands. In subsistence-agriculture societies, women do most of the work
relating to the direct care and support of the family. Children are seen as a
productive asset.
4. Importance of education. In traditional, subsistence-agriculture societies,
education often seems unnecessary, and this remains the case for many children in
the developing world, especially girls. Children who are sent to school become an
economic liability, one that many in poor countries cannot afford.
5. Status of women: opportunities for women’s education and careers. The
traditional social structure in many developing countries still discourages women
from obtaining higher education, owning businesses or land, and pursuing many
careers. They are forced to stay home and work for no pay. Often, respect for a
woman is proportional to how many children she has.
6. Availability of contraceptives. Poor women often lack access to reproductive
health information, services, and facilities. Providing contraceptives to women is
a major facet of family planning. There is a strong correlation between lower
fertility rates and the percentage of couples using contraceptives.
II. Women in the developing world want to delay having their next child or do not want any
more children. Many of these women are not using contraceptives, however, because
contraceptives are frequently unavailable or too expensive.
III. The six factors supporting large families are common to preindustrialized, agrarian
societies. With industrialization and development, however, generally come factors
conducive to having small families. These factors include the relatively high cost of
raising children, the existence of pensions and a Social Security system, opportunities
for women, opportunities for women to join the workforce, free access to inexpensive
contraceptives, adequate health care, wide educational opportunities and high
educational achievement, and an older age of marriage/
IV. Poverty, environmental degradation, and high fertility drive each other in a vicious cycle:
increasing population density leads to a greater depletion of rural community
resources, which encourages couples to have more children to help gather resources.
A. Thus, it is not economic development by itself that leads to declining fertility
rates. Rather, fertility rates decline insofar as development provides 1) security is
one’s old age apart from the help of children, 2) lower infant and childhood
mortality, 3) universal education for children 4) opportunities for higher education
 and careers for women, and 5) unrestricted access to contraceptives and
reproductive health services.

6.2 Promoting Development

Good and Bad News
I. Many developing countries have made remarkable economic progress. Although the
world economy is still strongly dominated by the developed countries, the developing
countries have become more and more involved in what is now an integrated global
economy.
A. Foreign investment is playing a large role in this development, increasing fourfold
in developing countries in the last decade.
B. Tremendous social progress has been made in several developing countries, too.
C. The fertility rates of most developing countries have declined, although they are
still far from the replacement level.
II. Poverty is still widespread. The world’s poorest people suffer from higher rates of
disease, lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality, higher illiteracy, poor living
conditions, social exclusion, and powerlessness.
A. Economic growth by itself will not eliminate poverty.
Millennium Development Goals
I. The Millennium Development Goals aimed to reduce world poverty in many countries
and its various impacts on human wellbeing. The eight goals are:
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.
2. Achieve universal primary education.
3. Promote gender equality and empower women.
4. Reduce childhood mortality.
5. Improve maternal health.
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases.
7. Ensure environmental sustainability.
8. Forge a global partnership for development.
II. The Millennium Project was given the mandate to develop a coordinated action plan that
other agencies and organizations can consult as they address the MDGs. It is an
independent advisory body headed by Jeffery Sachs.
A. The core recommendation of the project is that the Millennium Development
Goals must be at the center of national and international poverty reduction
strategies. However, the window of opportunity is closing.
III. The first MDG aims to reduce by half the proportion of people whose income is less than
$1 a day. This means reducing the current 29% of extremely poor people in the low-
and middle- income economies to 14.5% by 2015.
IV. The goal that seems most achievable is goal 2, achieve universal primary education. The
goal that seems least likely to be achieved is goal 4, reduce child mortality, with the
target of reducing under-five mortality rates by two-thirds.
 V. It is the responsibility of the developing countries themselves to manage their own
economic and social development, and therefore they must take full responsibility for
creating a climate that will facilitate the partnership envisioned in Goal 8. They must
devote significant financial resources towards achieving the goals.
A. Both developing countries and donor countries will have to commit major new
outlays of funds if the MDGs are to be met. Equally important is foreign
investment and participation in global markets, which directly stimulate and help
grow the economies of these countries.
B. Most important to the poorest people is the work of various U.N. and private
organizations that directly provide assistance and funnel aid to the developing
countries.
World Agencies at Work
I. The World Bank functions as a special agency under the U.N., owned by the countries
that provide its funds. It has gradually directed more and more of its attention to
developing countries.
A. It now lends to governments of developing nations for a variety of projects at
interest rates somewhat below the going market rates. It helps governments
borrow large sums of money for projects they otherwise could not afford.
B. The World Bank has been the major single agency providing aid to developing
countries for the past 50 years.
II. The World Bank is actually five closely associated agencies. The most prominent ones
are the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International
Development Association.
A. The IBRD aims at reducing poverty in middle-income and some of the stronger
low-income countries through loans and advisory services. The IDA enables the
World Bank to provide interest-free loans to the poorest countries.
B. The International Finance Corporation works through the private sector to
promote economic development in countries that are investment risks. It also
provides substantial advice and guidance to governments and businesses.
III. Some World Bank projects have been environmentally destructive and insensitive to the
poorer segments of society. In some countries, projects have emphasized growing
cash crops for export and fostering huge mechanized plantations, while leaving the
poor marginalized.
IV. However, there has been a change in recent years in how the World Bank does business
with the developing world.
A. The Bank has helped initiate the Millennium Development Goals. It has also
adopted a new environmental policy promoting sustainable development.
V. The U.N. Development Program helps developing countries attract and use development
aid effectively. Its network also coordinates global and national efforts to reach other
MDGs.
The Debt Crisis
 I. Theoretically, development projects are intended to generate additional revenues that
would be sufficient for the recipients to pay back their development loans with
interest. Unfortunately, a number of things have gone wrong with this theory.
A. Over time, developing countries have become increasingly indebted. In order to
keep up interest payments, poor countries often have to do one or more of the
following:
1. Focus agriculture on growing cash crops for export. This clearly impacts the
country’s ability to feed its people.
2. Adopt austerity measures. Government expenditures are reduced so that
income can go to pay interest. Usually this money comes from funds for
schools, health clinics, police protection of poor areas, building and
maintenance of roads in rural areas, and other goods and services that benefit
not only the poor but the country as a whole.
3. Invite the rapid exploitation of natural resources for quick cash. With the
emphasis on quick cash, few, if any, environmental restrictions are imposed.
Thus, the debt crisis has meant disaster for the environment.
B. These are all examples of liquidating ecosystem capital to raise cash for short-
term needs.
II. The World Bank is addressing the problems of debt and poverty directly through two
initiatives: the Consultative Group to Assist the Poorest and the Heavily Indebted
Poor Country initiatives.
A. The CGAP is designed to increase access to financial services for very poor
households through microfinancing. The HIPC initiative addresses the debt
problem of the low-income developing countries. To qualify, countries have to
demonstrate a track record of carrying out economic and social reforms that lead
to greater sustainability and alleviate poverty.
B. A renewed emphasis on debt relief can be traced to Jubilee 2000, a worldwide
coalition of people and organizations concerned about poverty. Jubilee 2000
focused world attention on the problem of debt relief.
Development Aid
I. The allocation of aid often follows the interests of the donor countries.
II. Migrants typically send much of their money home—remittances, as it is called. This is a
large flow of funds, estimated at 167 billion in 2005, and is double the size of
international aid flows.
III. Some of the decline in aid is explained as “donor fatigue.” Rich countries have tired of
handling out aid packages, only to have a large percentage go into the pockets of
corrupt leaders or cover administrative costs.
A. Allocation of aid is increasingly being tied to policy reform in the recipient
countries.

A New Direction: Social Modernization

 I. Demographic experts are beginning to recognize that the shift from high to low fertility
rates in the poorer developing countries does not require the economic trappings of a
developed country. Instead, what is needed are efforts within the country made on the
following points:
1. Improving education—especially literacy and the education of girls and women.
2. Improving health—especially having lower infant mortality.
3. Making family planning more accessible.
4. Enhancing income through employment opportunities.
5. Improving resource management.
A. In all these areas, the focus should be on women. It is women who are most
relevant in determining both the numbers and the welfare of the subsequent
generations.
B. The culmination of all these factors results in social modernization.
Improving Education
I. The illiteracy rates among poor women in developing countries are commonly between
50 and 70%, in part because the education of women is not considered important and
in part because expanding populations have overwhelmed school systems and
transportation systems.
A. Providing basic literacy will empower people to glean information from
pamphlets. An educated populace is an important component of the wealth of a
nation.
II. Investing in the education of children represents a key element of the public-policy
options of a developing country and is one that returns greater dividends.
Improving Health
I. Health care in the developing world must emphasize pre- and postnatal care of the
mother, as well as that of the children. When basic health care is provided in rural
areas in the form of clinics, it is one of the most effective ways of delivering family-
planning information and contraceptives to women.
A. Reproductive health focuses on women and infants and includes the following
major elements: prenatal care, safe childbirth and postnatal care, information and
services pertaining to contraception, prevention and treatment of sexually
transmitted diseases, abortion services and care afterwards, prevention and
treatment of infertility, and elimination of violence against women.
B. Reproductive health care underpins virtually all of the MDGs. It must be
addressed particularly to the needs of young people.
AIDS
I. One of the greatest challenges to health care in the developing countries is the sexually
transmitted disease acquired immune deficiency syndrome, AIDS.
A. The global epidemic of AIDS is most severe in many of the poorest developing
countries, which are least able to cope with the consequences.
B. AIDS is now the leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa.
 II. The impact of the epidemic is horrendous for the developing world. In many societies,
AIDS is tearing apart the structure of society.
A. A policy of treatment and prevention is needed for the developing world.
B. Education and literacy are important components of combating social problems.
Family Planning
I. The poor must depend on family-planning agencies, which are supported by a
combination of private donations, government funding, and small amounts the clients
may be able to afford. The stated policy of family-planning agencies is to enable
people to plan their own family size—to have children if a when they want them.
A. Family planning often involves determining and overcoming fertility problems for
those couples who are having reproductive difficulties.
II. Family planning services include the following:
1. Counseling and education for singles, couples, and groups regarding human
reproduction, the hazards of sexually transmitted diseases, and the benefits and
risks of various contraceptive techniques.
2. Counseling and education on achieving the best possible pre- and postnatal health
for mother and child. The emphasis is on good nutrition, sanitation, and hygiene.
3. Counseling and education to avoid high-risk pregnancies. Pregnancies that occur
when a woman is too young or too old and pregnancies that follow too closely on
a previous pregnancy are considered high risk; they seriously jeopardize the
health, and even the life, of the mother.
4. Providing contraceptive materials or treatments after people have been properly
instructed about all alternatives.
A. One major goal of family planning policies is to ensure that all those who want or
need reproductive health services actually have access to them. Where women’s
unmet need for family planning is fairly minimal, fertility rates are lower. The
governments of countries that want to lower their fertility know that meeting the
unmet need for family planning services is perhaps their most crucial objective.
III. The promotion of contraceptives has proven all by itself to lower fertility rates. Those
countries that have implemented effective family-planning programs have
experienced the most rapid decline in fertility.
A. Abortion should not be used as a method of family planning. Therefore, it is
particularly important to understand that the primary functions of family planning
are education and providing services directed at avoiding unwanted or high-risk
pregnancies.
B. Encouraging and implementing family planning is the first and most important
step a country can take to improve its chances of developing economically.
C. Cutbacks in family planning services result in more unwanted pregnancies and
more demand for abortions.
Employment and Income
 I. The bottom line of any economic system is the exchange of goods and services. At its
simplest level, this entails a barter economy in which people agree on direct
exchanges of certain goods and services.
A. The introduction of a cash economy facilitates the exchange of a wider variety of
goods and services, and everyone may prosper, as they have a wider market for
what they can provide and a wider choice of what to get in return.
B. Poor communities have trouble getting startup capital because they are seen as
financial risks and generally want smaller loans than banks are used to dealing
with.
C. Microlends are short, small, and provide resources for rural people. Loans are
secured by forming credit associations—groups of several people who agree to be
responsible for each other’s loans.
II. Microlending has been found to have the greatest social benefits when it is focused on
women because they control the household. Credit associations create another level of
cooperation and mutual support within the community, particularly when the loans
are directed towards women.
Resource Management
I. The world’s poor depend on local ecosystem capital resources. Many lack access to
enough land to provide income and generally on foraging. This activity generates
income and is vital to those in extreme poverty.
A. These resources can be a safety net and employment source, but if not managed in
some way, common pool resources are liable to overuse, especially when
populations are increasing.
B. Effective strategies for managing natural resources often can be found in
traditional knowledge, which can be shared broadly with the help of appropriate
organizations.