Monthly Commodity Markets Roundup

Apr 2012

Markets performance
Units Apr 2012 % chg % chg
(MoM) (Year to
date)
Index
Vegetable oils
SBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 54.66 -0.80% 4.93% > Market performance
CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,471.00 1.11% 9.32%
RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,167.50 -0.21% 8.60% > Market perspectives
SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,230.00 4.41% 7.89%
Sunoil, Ex NWE /T 1,340.00 3.88% 11.67%
Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch 997.00 1.22% 3.64%
> Market visuals
/T
CPO, cif, Rotterdam Price seasonality
/T 1,175.00 0.00% 12.98%
CSBO degummed, Ex NWE 995.00 2.05% 4.52%
Spreads Corner
/T
Softs and Plantations Traders positions vs. price
Sugar 11 @ ICE 21.17 -14.33% -9.14%
Macroeconomic gauge
USc /lb
Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 312.90 -3.93% 18.79%
Price charts - Agriculture
Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 2,263.00 1.98% 7.30%
Price charts - Energy
Coffee C @ ICE USc /lb 177.95 -2.47% -21.56% Price charts - Indices
Tea, Best BP1, Kenya US$/Kg 3.53 8.28% 22.57% Price charts Currency & Treasury
Energy and Metals yield
Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 104.87 1.80% 6.11%
Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,663.88 -0.26% 6.40%
Silver spot US$ /oz 30.95 -3.94% 11.77%
Copper @ LME US$ /T 8,400.00 -0.53% 10.53%
Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,119.00 -0.33% 4.90%
Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,062.50 3.13% 11.79%
Indices
DJIA 13,213.60 0.01% 8.15%
FTSE 100 5,737.78 -0.53% 2.97%
Strait times 2,978.57 -1.06% 12.55%
S&P GSCI 684.88 -0.56% 6.20%
Currencies
US Dollar Index 78.7760 -0.29% -1.75%
GBP / USD 1.6231 1.38% 4.48%
EUR / USD 1.3240 -0.77% 2.28%
USD / JPY 79.7800 -3.64% 3.69%
USD / SGD 1.2370 -1.61% -4.61%
USD / MYR 3.0232 -1.22% -4.60%
USD / BRL 1.9080 4.51% 2.43%
 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Market Perspectives

Soybean oil
Soybean prices rallied in Apr with renewed fund buying interest that was fueled by supply side concerns.
Other oilseed prices followed.
World soybean production for MY 11/12 is currently projected at 240.2 million tons, up 3% year on year.
Crush demand is projected at 223.3 mln.T, up 1.2% y/y. Consequently ending stocks are expected to
decline by over 19% to 55.5 million tons from previous year level of 69.1 million tons.
Uncertainty over MY 11/12 soybean crop size from Argentina and Brazil still persists. The same will be
keenly monitored as they reach final stages of harvesting. Argentina production is currently anticipated in
the region of 41.5-42 million tons vs. USDAs latest estimate of 45 mln.T. It was the prime factor that
pushed up soybean and meal prices in Apr and traders await USDAs May monthly bulletin for more
concrete evidence on this.
Though bean oil futures were the first to hop on to the bull rally on evidence of increase in consumption for
biodiesel production at origins itself, it lost to meal subsequently. As a result, its share in crush revenue has
declined to 39% by the end of Apr from 47% prevailing early in Jan2012.
For the new MY 12/13, little growth in acreage under oilseed plantings could be expected as was
suggested by planting intentions survey in US and in Canada. We need to wait for more data to flow in to
get clear view.
Soybean plantings kicked off with good pace in US with almost 12% of crop estimated to have been
planted by end April 2012 vs. 5% in the corresponding period previous year.
Weather development in US and in key oilseed growing regions of Northern hemisphere shall be major
factors to drive prices in the coming period.

Global oilseed production Global soybean production, demand and stock trends, in mln.T

qty in mln.T 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 % chg y/y

soybn prodtn & consmptn, in mln.T

Prodtn
50 100 150 200 250

Soybean 211.6 261.1 264.2 240.2 -9.11%

soybn ending stocks, in mln.T

Likely to be crush demand
Brazil 57.8 69.0 75.5 66.0 -12.58% reduced

60
othr consmptn
Argentina 32.0 54.5 49.0 45.0 -8.16% further. stocks
Rapeseed 57.8 61.0 60.5 60.3 -0.28%

40
Cottonseed 41.2 39.1 43.5 46.5 6.80%
Sunflower seed 33.5 32.2 32.9 39.4 19.59%

20
Peanut 35.1 33.7 35.6 35.4 -0.48%
Palm Kernel 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.3 5.82%
0

0
Copra 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.5 -7.97%
Total 396.8 445.1 455.3 440.6 -3.24% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US soybean cumulative exports for MY 2011/12 China, cumulative soybean imports in the MY
45 Imports likely to increase in 60.0
Projected exp for 2011-12 at 35.108 mt 2007-08 the coming months
40
accumulated exp in mt

2008-09 50.0
cumulative imports in mln.T

35 2009-10
2010-11 40.0
30
2011-12
25
30.0
20
2011-12 2010-11 15 20.0
5 yr avg 5 yr min
5 yr max 10
10.0
5
0 0.0
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

-2- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012

Soybean to corn price ratio US Soybean oil stocks, monthly, in bln.lbs

Source: Reuters, USDA, trade asscociations and Pacrim research

Palm oil
Palm oil prices traded firm in the first half of month, however retreated in the second half on ease in supply
side concerns.
Though palm oil production growth is forecasted to slow down at major origins in the current year on
account low biological yield cycle, more confirmatory evidence along with higher export demand is required
for prices to regain the bullish momentum.

Global vegetable oil production, consumption and stocks World vegetable oil ending stocks and stocks to use trends
units in mln.T 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 y/y 11/12 over 10/11
Production 140.6 147.3 153.0 5.65
14

Palm oil 45.9 48.0 50.7 2.74

20
eight veg oil eight veg oil
Palm kernel oil 5.5 5.6 5.8 0.28 SBO SBO
8 10 12

veg oil stocks to use, in %

Palmoil Palmoil
ending stocks, in mln.T

Soybean oil 38.8 41.1 41.7 0.60

15
Rapeseed oil 22.3 23.5 23.4 -0.02
Sunflower oil 12.1 12.2 14.1 1.90
Coconut oil 3.6 3.8 3.6 -0.27

10
6

Cottonseed oil 4.6 5.0 5.4 0.38

Groundnut oil 4.7 5.1 5.2 0.01
4

5
Consumption 138.4 145.2 150.8 5.65
2

Food and Feed use 107.9 112.4 115.5 3.13

Industrial use 30.4 32.8 35.3 2.52
0

0
Ending stocks 13.5 12.7 12.6 -0.13
Global veg oil stocks to use ratio 9.7% 8.8% 8.4% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Jan-Mar, in mln.T Malaysian palm oil (crude and processed) monthly stock trend.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Line, 1.959M
Price
4.2
3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.941 Total palm oil stocks
1.6M

3.4 3.63.684 3.6

3.2 3.2 3.4 1.2M
3.1 3.1
2.8
Line, 977,622, Line, 981,618
Price
Processed palm oil stocks

Crude palm oil stocks 1M

800,000

600,000

400,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Production Exports 2000 2010

Source: MPOB, USDA, Reuters and Pacrim research

-3- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012

Sugar

Sugar prices slumped in April as production for MY 12/13 is forecasted to increase from major producers.

Brazilian sugar production for MY 2012/13 is forecasted to increase by 4.5% year on year to 37.8 million
tons. Production from main producing Center South region is projected at 33.1 million tons vs. 31.3 million
tons produced in previous year. Production from other major producers like India, Thailand, Russia and
Australia also expected to increase. Given the current expectations, global sugar production might increase
by 3%-3.5% y/y, though less than previous year growth of 4.2%, is higher than prevailing expectation of 2%
consumption growth.

Expected increase in supplies seen weighing on prices. However, weather developments in Brazil and
other regions in the coming period will be closely monitored which might support corrective pull backs.

Global sugar production vs. consumption, qty in million tons. Stocks

increased following higher production growth vs. consumption growth Sugar production forecast for MY 12/13 in major countries
for 3 consecutive years.
180 85% 2010/11 2011/12 P 2012/13 F % yoy
Brazil 38.4 36.2 37.8 4.56%
productn & consmtn, in mln.T

130
65% India 26.7 28.8 29.8 3.30%
80 China 11.2 12.3 13.1 6.50%
45%
Thailand 9.7 10.4 10.9 4.18%
30
Mexico 5.5 5.7 5.5 -3.54%
25%
-20 Russia 3.0 5.5 5.1 -8.18%
% chg yoy

5% Pakistan 3.9 4.3 4.1 -4.65%

-70
Australia 3.7 3.9 4.5 15.38%
-120 -15% Sub-total 102.0 107.0 110.6 3.35%
1999/00 '01/02 '03/04 '05/06 '07/08 '09/10 '11/12
Sub-total as % to
Production Consumption % prodtn yoy % cons yoy
world production 63% 64%
Sugar: World stocks to use ratio vs. price Sugar whites premium over raw, in US$ PMT
Stocks to use Annual avg price $300 $1,000

35% 35 Whites premium Sugar5 @ LIFFE Sugar11 @ ICE

$900
sugar white premium over raw, US$ PMT
sugar 11@ ICE, price in USc/lb

$250
30% 30 $800

sugar price, in US$ PMT

$700
25% 25 $200
stocks to use (%)

$600
20% 20 $150 $500

15% 15 $400
$100
$300
10% 10
$200
$50
5% 5
$100

0% 0 $0 $0
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 11/12 F-98 F-99 F-00 F-01 F-02 F-03 F-04 F-05 F-06 F-07 F-08 F-09 F-10 F-11 F-12

Source: USDA, Reuters and Pacrim research

-4- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012

Cocoa
Cocoa bucked the trend in softs group and stayed firm in April.
It attracted new buying interest as production for MY 2011/12 (Oct/Sep) was projected to decline by 7.9%
year on year to 3.961 million tons. World grindings were projected to grow by 2% to 3.992 million tons
during the same period, there by a resulting in production deficit of 71 TMT compared to a surplus of 341
TMT experienced in the previous season.
Cocoa grindings in EU and North America for first quarter in 2012 came in better than trade anticipation
and extended underlying support to prices.
Weather in Ivory Coast as it harvests mid crop that runs from Apr-Sep will be closely monitored. Though
traders were concerned about output following deficit rainfall during the period Nov-Mar2012, subsequent
rainfall helped to alleviate the fears.

World cocoa production, grindings and surplus / deficit trends Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast, MY (Oct-Sep) wise
5000 500
4500 400
production & grindings in '000 MT

surplus/deficit, in 000 MT
4000
300
3500
3000 200

2500 100
2000 0
1500
-100
1000
500 -200

0 -300
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11

Production Grindings Surplus/deficit

Cocoa quarterly grindings in EU Cocoa quarterly grindings in North America

400 60% 150 60%
EU grindings, '000 MT

grindings, '000 MT

300 50% 50%

100
200 40% 40%
50
100 30% 30%

0 20% 0 20%

-100 10% 10%

y/y chg %

y/y chg %
-50 North America
-200 0% % y/y NA 0%
EU % y/y EU -100
-300 -10% -10%

-400 -20% -150 -20%

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cocoa butter ratio in EU and Asian region

Source: Industry associations, ICCO, Reuters and Pacrim research

-5- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Market Visuals
Price seasonality
SBO at CBOT, price in USc /lb CPO at BMD, price in MYR/T

70
year year
4000
60 2006 2006
2007 3500 2007
50
value

2008

value
3000 2008
2009 2009
40
2010 2500
2010
2011 2011
30 2000
2012 2012
1500
100 200 300 100 200 300
day of year day of year

SB at CBOT, price in USc / bushel Corn at CBOT, price in USc /bushel

1600 year year

700
2006 2006
1400
2007 600 2007
1200
value

value
2008 2008
500
2009 2009
1000
2010 400 2010
800 2011 2011
300
2012 2012
600

100 200 300 100 200 300

day of year day of year
SBM at CBOT, price in USD / short ton Wheat at CBOT, price USc / bushel

450
year 1200 year
400 2006 2006
2007 1000 2007
350
value

value

2008 2008
300 800
2009 2009

250 2010 2010

600
2011 2011
200
2012 400 2012

100 200 300 100 200 300

day of year day of year
Sugar at ICE, price in USc / lb RSS3 (Natural Rubber) at TOCOM, price in JPY / kg

35
year 500 year
30 2006 2006
2007 400 2007
25
value

value

2008 2008

20 2009 300 2009

2010 2010
15 2011 200 2011
2012 2012
10

100 200 300 100 200 300

day of year day of year
Source: Pacrim research

-6- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Spreads corner
Soybean crush margin, US$ per ton of soybean processed Corn processing margin, margin in US$ per bushel of corn processed
3.0 3.5
100
80 2.5 3.0

Margin, in US$ per bushel of corn

Corn and Ethanol market prices

60 2.0
2.5
40
margin in US$ / T

1.5
2.0
20
1.0
0 1.5
0.5
-20 1.0
0.0
-40
-0.5 0.5
-60
-80 -1.0 0.0
Brazil Argentina China US

S-07

J-08

S-08

J-09

S-09

J-10

S-10

J-11

S-11
M-08

M-09

M-10

M-11

M-12
D-07

D-08

D-09

D-10

D-11
-100 Margin per bushel of corn, with out DDG Margin per bushel of corn, with DDG revenue
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Ethanol, in USD/gallon, RHS Corn, US$ per gallon of ethanol, RHS

Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

SBO vs. Palm olein Brent crude premium over WTI, Brent @ICE vs. WTI @ NYMEX

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-7- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Traders positions vs. Price
250
Soybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT

20 40 60 80
Speculative Net Speculative Net

1400

60
Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

price, USc/bushel
150

price, USc/lb
50
'000 lots

'000 lots
1000

40
50

30
0

600
-50

-40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX

350

140
100 150 200

Speculative Net Speculative Net

30
Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

price, US$/barrel
250
price, USc/lb
25

60 80 100
'000 lots

'000 lots
20

150
50

15

50
0

10

40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX

450
1800

20 30

Speculative Net Speculative Net

250

Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

price, USD / t.oz

price, USc / lb
350
1400
100 150 200

0 10
'000 lots

'000 lots

250
1000

-10

150
600
50

-30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE
200
80

Speculative Net Speculative Net

400

Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

price, USc / bushel

60
600

price, USc / lb
200 300

150
'000 lots

'000 lots
20 40

100
400
100

0
-20

50
0

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: CFTC and Pacrim research

-8- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012

Macroeconomic gauge
Unemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Manufacturing index in US, GBP, JPY, Germany and China (% y/y)

Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence

Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %

Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research

-9- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Price charts - Agriculture
CPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous
CPO BMD 3 month conti new (3,495.00, 3,505.00, 3,464.00, 3,471.00, -34.0000) SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (55.1300, 55.2800, 54.2600, 54.5200, -0.66000)
4500
70
4000 65
60
3500 55
50
3000
45
2500 40
35
2000
30
1500 25
20
15 EMA 200 SMA 15 EMA 200 SMA
40 EMA 1000 15
40 EMA
Stoc 9 Stoc 9 100

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,490.25, 1,503.75, 1,480.25, 1,497.75, +1.00000) 1700 CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (652.250, 665.500, 644.000, 659.750, +6.75000)
800
1600
750
1500
700
1400 650
1300 600
1200 550
1100 500
1000 450
900 400
800 350
700 300
600 250
15 EMA 200 SMA 500 200
40 EMA 15 EMA 200 SMA
40 EMA 150
Stoc 9
Stoc 9

50 50

0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous
RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (313.000, 316.000, 311.900, 313.900, +1.00000) 550 SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (21.2800, 21.4300, 20.7700, 20.9500, -0.27000)
35
500

450 30
400
25
350
300 20
250
15
200

150 10
100
15 EMA 200 SMA 15 EMA 200 SMA 5
40 EMA 40 EMA
Stoc 9 100
Stoc 9

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous
WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (645.000, 649.750, 633.750, 633.750, -8.50000) 1400 COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (87.3700, 87.7100, 85.1100, 87.5100, -1.72000)
1300
1200 200
1100
1000
900 150
800
700
100
600
500
400 50
300 15 EMA 200 SMA
15 EMA 200 SMA 40 EMA
40 EMA 200
Stoc 9 100
Stoc 9

50 50

0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-10- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Price Charts Energy and Metals
Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,
LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (104.930, 106.430, 103.880, 106.160, +1.23000) 150 NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (2.19000, 2.38500, 2.15000, 2.37100, +0.18500)
16
140 15
130 14
120 13
12
110
11
100
10
90 9
80 8
70 7
60 6
50 5
4
40
3
30
15 EMA 200 SMA 15 EMA 200 SMA 2
40 EMA 20 40 EMA 1
Stoc 9 Stoc 9

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.

gold (1,661.94, 1,671.20, 1,644.50, 1,660.10, -1.33997) 2000 silver (31.2800, 31.3900, 30.5600, 30.8900, -0.33000)
1900 50
1800 45
1700
1600 40
1500
1400 35
1300
1200 30
1100
1000 25
900
20
800
700 15
600
500 10
400
15 EMA 200 SMA 300 15 EMA 200 SMA 5
40 EMA 200 40 EMA

Stoc 9 Stoc 9 100

50 50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT COPPER USD (8,385.00, 8,440.00, 8,377.00, 8,440.00, +25.0000) 3MT ZINC DLR (2,050.00, 2,068.00, 2,047.00, 2,053.00, +12.5000)
10000 4500

9000 4000
8000
3500
7000
3000
6000
2500
5000
2000
4000
1500
3000

2000 1000
15 EMA 200 SMA 15 EMA 200 SMA
40 EMA 1000 40 EMA 500
Stoc 9 Stoc 9 100

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,104.00, 2,127.00, 2,097.00, 2,123.00, +15.0000) 3500 3MT LEAD DLR (2,155.00, 2,182.00, 2,145.00, 2,180.00, +40.0000) 4000

3500
3000
3000

2500 2500

2000
2000
1500

1000
1500

15 EMA 200 SMA 15 EMA 200 SMA 500

40 EMA 40 EMA

Stoc 9 Stoc 9

50 50

0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-11- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Indices, weekly charts
DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US
Dow Jones INDU AVERAGE NDX (13,228.30, 13,338.70, 13,174.60, 13,279.30, +51.0000) 14500 S&P 500 NDX (1,403.26, 1,415.32, 1,394.00, 1,405.82, +2.45996) 1600
14000
13500 1500
13000
12500 1400
12000 1300
11500
11000 1200
10500
10000 1100
9500 1000
9000
8500 900
8000
7500 800
7000
700
15 EMA 200 SMA 6500 15 EMA 200 SMA
40 EMA 6000 40 EMA

Stoc 9 100 Stoc 9 100

50 50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore

FTSE 100 INDEX (5,777.11, 5,819.00, 5,728.87, 5,812.23, +35.1201) STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (2,966.53, 2,982.14, 2,966.53, 2,978.57, -3.01001) 4000

6500
3500
6000

3000
5500

5000 2500

4500
2000
4000
1500
3500
15 EMA 200 SMA 15 EMA 200 SMA
40 EMA 40 EMA 1000
Stoc 9 Stoc 9 100

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,403.52, 2,415.75, 2,350.40, 2,396.32, -10.5400) BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (17,195.50, 17,359.20, 17,187.30, 17,318.80, +184.602)
6000
20000
5500
5000
4500 15000
4000
3500
3000 10000
2500
2000
1500 5000

15 EMA 200 SMA 1000 15 EMA 200 SMA

40 EMA 40 EMA

Stoc 9 100 Stoc 9 100

50 50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)

S&P GSCI INDEX (684.150, 689.040, 680.380, 687.606, +3.15704) Volatility Index (17.0400, 17.4900, 16.0100, 16.6000, +0.28000)
900 90
850 85
800 80
750 75
70
700
65
650 60
600 55
550 50
500 45
450 40
35
400
30
350 25
300 20
250 15
15 EMA 200 SMA 200 15 EMA 200 SMA 10
40 EMA 150 40 EMA 5
Stoc 9 Stoc 9

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-12- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012
Currencies, weekly charts
US Dollar Index spot GBP / USD
US DOLLAR INDEX (78.8000, 78.9770, 78.6030, 78.8640, +0.15500) UK pound sterling (1.62710, 1.63010, 1.61840, 1.62180, -0.00470) 2.15
110 2.10
2.05
105 2.00
1.95
100 1.90
1.85
95 1.80
1.75
90
1.70
1.65
85
1.60
80 1.55
1.50
75 1.45
1.40
15 EMA 200 SMA 70 15 EMA 200 SMA 1.35
40 EMA 40 EMA 1.30
Stoc 9 Stoc 9

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

EUR / USD USD / JPY

EuroDollar (1.32390, 1.32830, 1.32030, 1.32360, -0.00160) Japanese yen (80.2600, 80.3800, 79.6200, 80.0700, -0.17000)
1.60 125
1.55
120
1.50
1.45 115
1.40 110
1.35 105
1.30
100
1.25
1.20 95
1.15 90
1.10
85
1.05
1.00 80
15 EMA 200 SMA 0.95 15 EMA 200 SMA 75
40 EMA 40 EMA

Stoc 9 Stoc 9

50 50

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

USD / SGD USD / MYR

Singapore dollar (1.23730, 1.23860, 1.23420, 1.23570, -0.00110) Malaysian ringgit (3.03700, 3.03700, 3.02040, 3.03150, -0.01000)
1.80
1.75 3.7
1.70
1.65 3.6
1.60 3.5
1.55
3.4
1.50
1.45 3.3
1.40 3.2
1.35
3.1
1.30
1.25 3.0
15 EMA 200 SMA 1.20 15 EMA 200 SMA
40 EMA 40 EMA 2.9

Stoc 9 Stoc 9 100

50 50

0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

10 year treasury yield, American region 10 year treasury yield, EU

Line, 1.9418, Line, 2.0350, Line, 6.2300, Line, 10.7100 Yield Line, 1.640, Line, 3.000, Line, 5.536, Line, 2.072, Line, 5.842 Yield

16 6.5
Italy
14 6
Spain 5.842
Brazil
5.536
5.5
France
12
5
10.71
10 4.5

Mexico 4
8
3.5
6.23
6 33
US
4 UK 2.5
Canada Germany 2.072
2
2
1.9418
2.035 1.64
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-13- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Apr 2012

Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sources
we believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as
a recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.

-14- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd