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Improving final settlement predictions of the

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DOI: 10.1680/geng.10.00089

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Geotechnical Engineering Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers

Improving final settlement predictions of http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/geng.10.00089

the observational method Paper 1000089
Sasar and Haeri Received 28/06/2010 Accepted 16/04/2012
Keywords: land reclamation/geotechnical engineering/field testing &
monitoring

ICE Publishing: All rights reserved

Improving final settlement

predictions of the
observational method
j
1 Mohammadhasan Sasar MSc j
2 S. Mohsen Haeri PhD, DIC
Geotechnical Engineering Graduate, Department of Civil Professor, Director of Geotechnical Engineering Studies and Research
Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran Centre, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of
Technology, Tehran, Iran

j
1 j
2

Preloading is a popular technique in ground improvement works on soft compressible soils. Observational methods
such as the Asaoka or hyperbolic methods are widely used in practical applications to assess final settlement and
the degree of consolidation during preloading. In this paper it is argued that the major cause of inaccuracy in the
final settlement predicted by the Asaoka method, especially in the early stages of preloading (short assessment
periods), is neglect of the effects of creep in Asaokas solution. This may also be the cause of the lack of agreement
between observational methods and the piezometer method at higher degrees of consolidation. In this paper a
method is proposed that can improve ultimate settlement predicted by the Asaoka method, by considering the
effects of creep. By applying this method to two sets of settlementtime data available in the literature, it was
found that the final settlements can be estimated with greater accuracy compared with the Asaoka method, even
in the early stages of consolidation. Additionally, the proposed method can predict future settlements accurately.
The degrees of consolidation predicted by this method showed good agreement with pore pressures recorded in
piezometers.

Notation loading, usually accompanied by some sort of vertical drain

Cc index of primary compression ( e/log ) (e.g. sand drains or prefabricated vertical drains), is a popular
C index of secondary compression ( e/log t ) technique in this field. This method entails placing a sur-
ecreep reduction in void ratio due to creep charge load, usually by building an embankment, on the
ep void ratio at end of primary consolidation ground surface, and removing the surcharge when the pre-
e0 void ratio at beginning of primary consolidation specified degree of consolidation has been achieved. Thus
H total thickness of preloaded layer assessment of the degree of consolidation is a necessary part
S total settlement at any time during consolidation of this method.
Sc settlement due to secondary consolidation (creep) only
Sp settlement due to primary consolidation only Boundary and initial conditions, such as the initial pore water
ST total settlement at end of primary consolidation pressure, drainage path length and coefficient of consolidation,
t time are usually difficult to ascertain (Asaoka, 1978). For example,
ti time at ith interval since end of preloading period thin layers of permeable material such as sand lenses, which are
(i 0, 1, 2, . . ., n) likely to remain undiscovered in geotechnical explorations, might
xi settlement at t t i (i 1, 2, . . ., n) substantially decrease the drainage path length (Wheeless and
Xi settlement due to primary consolidation only at t t i Sowers, 1972). Hence analytical solutions of the consolidation
(i 0, 1, 2, . . ., n) equation for settlement prediction are known to be inaccurate.
Therefore observational techniques, such as the Asaoka method
1. Introduction (Asaoka, 1978) or hyperbolic methods (Tan, 1993, 1995) are
Before vital facilities are built on soft compressible soils, widely used in practical applications (e.g. Arulrajah et al., 2003;
ground improvement works are normally required; and pre- Bo et al., 2003).

1
Geotechnical Engineering Improving final settlement predictions of
the observational method
Sasar and Haeri

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1.1 Asaokas observational method
Asaoka suggested a procedure applicable to consolidation pro-
blems with or without vertical drains. Assume that we have n + 1
settlement readings at a constant time interval of t (x0 , x1 , . . .,
x n ) caused by placing a constant external load on a clay layer.
Figure 1 shows an example of such settlementtime data, in
which seven settlement readings after the end of the preloading
period (the end of placing the surcharge) are plotted against time
at a constant time interval of one month. Asaokas solution then
shows that n plotted points (x k , x k 1 ) for k 1, 2, . . ., n, will rest
on a straight line with coordinates (xi , xi1 ). Subsequently, the
intersection point of this line with the 458 line marks a stable
state in which both x k and x k 1 match the final settlement at the
end of consolidation. Figure 2 shows the Asaoka plot for the
Load: t/m2
settlementtime data of Figure 1. The best-fitted line to the data
points in Figure 2 intersects the 458 line at (0.59, 0.59), which
indicates that Asaokas method predicts 59 cm of settlement at
the end of consolidation. Hence the idea of the Asaoka method is
based on observational procedure, in which future settlement is
predicted using past observations. This method is particularly
effective for settlement prediction, because the coefficient of
consolidation, the depth of the clay layer and other boundary
conditions of drainage and load are assumed to be unknown.
A brief literature review, however, reveals that with the Asaoka
method good predictions are usually possible after 60% consoli-
dation has been achieved (Bergado et al., 1991), but that the
prediction is dependent on the time interval t, and on the
assessment period (Arulrajah et al., 2004). The assessment period
refers to the period of time after placing the surcharge during

8 which settlementtime readings are recorded. The settlement

time data in Figure 1, for example, are presented for a period of
4 assessment of 6 months after the preloading period.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 Additionally, the degree of consolidation predicted by piezo-
Time: month
meters is only in good agreement with the Asaoka method in the
01
early stages of consolidation. For example, experience from land
02 reclamation projects on marine clay has indicated that, as the
assessment period increases, piezometers show a lower degree of
03 consolidation compared with field settlement predictions (Arulra-
Settlement: m

jah et al., 2004).

04
In this paper it is argued that the main cause of the inaccuracy in
05
the final settlement predicted by the Asaoka method for short
06 assessment periods (lower degree of consolidation) is neglect of
the effects of creep. This may also be the cause of the lack
Figure 1. Typical plot of settlementtime data of agreement between observational methods and piezometer
method at higher degrees of consolidation. A method of enhan-
cing settlement prediction by the Asaoka method, even in the
07 early stages of preloading, is proposed in this paper.

06
1.2 Creep
05 In the field of land reclamation and clays, creep is usually defined
y 07263x 01624 as a continuous reduction in volume of the soil under constant
Settlement (i ): m

04 effective stress (Bjerrum, 1967). Creep can happen as a result of

gradual readjustment of clay particles to more stable equilibrium
positions, or gradual lateral displacements (shear distortions) that
03
occur in thick layers subject to shear stress (Terzaghi, 1953).

02
Regardless of the micromechanisms that cause creep (Bassett,
1978; Feda, 2004), most researchers assume a linear relationship
01 59 cm
between creep settlement and log time.

0 Hypotheses pertaining to creep are grouped into two categories

0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
(Yin, 1999). The first group assumes that secondary consolidation
Settlement (i 1): m
(or creep) occurs only after primary consolidation is over. The
Figure 2. Asaoka plot for settlementtime data of Figure 1 second group of theories considers that creep occurs during the
whole consolidation process. One of the shortcomings of the one-

2
Geotechnical Engineering
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dimensional consolidation theories of Terzaghi (1925) and
Mikasa (1963) is the neglect of the effect of creep in either form.
The one-dimensional consolidation theories of Terzaghi and
Mikasa form the basis for the Asaoka method. Therefore the
Asaoka procedure generates a straight line only if the soil
behaviour fulfils the assumptions of one-dimensional primary
consolidation theories. As a result, if creep does not occur, or
occurs only after the primary consolidation is over, then the data
points in the Asaoka plot would fit on a unique straight line after
application of the constant surcharge load. However, as will be
demonstrated later, the measured points do not fit on a straight
line. Hence the second group of hypotheses concerning creep
seems to be the more realistic approach.
2. Selected methodology
The one-dimensional consolidation theories of Terzaghi and
Mikasa neglect the effects of creep. One way to avoid this
problem would be to use a more sophisticated consolidation
theory that allows for creep settlements during the consolidation
process, and then deriving the settlementtime relationship again
in a similar manner to Asaoka. The result of such an approach
would probably be too complicated for practical purposes. Thus,
as a different way to deal with this setback, the present authors
prefer to extract creep settlements from the monitored time
settlement data. The resulting dataset of primary consolidation
settlement over time (referred to as the P dataset in this paper)
can be used to make more accurate predictions.
2.1 Calculating creep settlements
Primary and secondary (creep) consolidation are assumed to start
simultaneously. Therefore, if S is the settlement at time t during
consolidation, then S Sp + Sc , where Sp is the settlement due to
primary consolidation only, and Sc is the settlement due to creep.
In order to calculate the amount of creep, it is assumed that it can
be determined by the secondary compression index, C , and the
degree of compression (Mesri and Rokhsar, 1974). Hence
ecreep C log t the available data on the coefficient of primary compression of
1:
e0  e S
 02
2: e0  ep S T
Thus the settlement of the preloaded layer due to secondary
compression is
H 3S C H 3S
Sc 3 3 log t 3 C 9 log t
3: ST 1 e0 ST
In which
Improving final settlement predictions of
the observational method
Sasar and Haeri
C
C 9
1 e0
Using Equation 3, the amount of creep settlement during primary
consolidation can be calculated at any given time. As can be
seen, ST on the right-hand side of Equation 3 is not known:
therefore it must be solved iteratively.
In natural deposits, it can be assumed that creep from previous
loadings is over, and the current settlements are due only to
primary and secondary consolidation of the new loading. But in
the case of reclaimed land or a remoulded laboratory specimen,
the soil is already under secondary consolidation, and creep-
inducing micromechanisms such as the rearrangement of particles
are taking place during the time under consideration (Bassett,
1978). Moreover, in the field, creep can also occur as a result of
gradual lateral displacements. Hence complete removal of creep
settlements is not expected, even after eliminating the creep
settlements estimated from theories usually developed by the help
of laboratory tests on confined specimens (i.e. Equation 3).
However, a rather more reliable set of data is hoped to be
achieved, which fits better to the assumptions of the Asaoka
method. This can be best illustrated through an example.
3. Example calculations
Many research papers relating to the preloading technique contain
settlementtime graphs. In this paper settlementtime data from
two such research papers have been considered: for the Ska-
Edeby test field in Sweden, test area No. IV, details of which are
presented in Hansbo (2005); and for a pilot test site (test site
A2S-71) in the Changi East reclamation project in Singapore
(Arulrajah et al., 2004).
3.1 Ska-Edeby test field
The depth of clay soils at this site is reported to be 12.2 m.
Unfortunately, the coefficient of secondary compression and
initial void ratio were not given in the report. Therefore, based on
Time: years
001 01 1 10 100
0
Settlement: m
04
06
Monitored timesettlement data
Timeprimary consolidation
08
settlement data
10
12
Figure 3. Monitored and P datasets for Ska-Edeby test field
3
Geotechnical Engineering Improving final settlement predictions of
the observational method
Sasar and Haeri

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12 12
y 08885x 00964 y 09062x 00902
R2 09968 R2 09982
10 10

08 08
Settlement (i ): m

Settlement (i ): m
06 06

04 04

02 02
45 45
Predicted final settlement 086 m Predicted final settlement 094 m
0 0
0 02 04 06 08 10 12 0 02 04 06 08 10 12
Settlement (i 1): m Settlement (i 1): m
(a) (b)
12 12

10 y 09145x 00868 10 y 09227x 0083

R2 09989 R2 09991

08 08
Settlement (i ): m

Settlement (i ): m

06 06

04 04

02 02
45 45
Predicted final settlement 102 m Predicted final settlement 107 m
0 0
0 02 04 06 08 10 12 0 02 04 06 08 10 12
Settlement (i 1): m Settlement (i 1): m
(c) (d)
12 12

10 y 09262x 00812 10 y 09311x 00785

R2 09993 R2 09995

08 08
Settlement (i ): m

Settlement (i ): m

06 06

04 04

02 02
45 45
Predicted final settlement 110 m Predicted final settlement 114 m
0 0
0 02 04 06 08 10 12 0 02 04 06 08 10 12
Settlement (i 1): m Settlement (i 1): m
(e) (f)
Figure 4. Asaoka plots for monitored timesettlement data of
Figure 3. Time interval 1 year. Surcharge duration: (a) 10 years;
(b) 15 years; (c) 20 years; (d) 25 years; (e) 30 years; (f) 45 years

4
Geotechnical Engineering Improving final settlement predictions of
the observational method
Sasar and Haeri

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clayey soils in Sweden, and suggested ranges of C /Cc (Mesri,
1973), a value of 0.015 for C9 is deemed suitable for this clay.
The monitored settlementtime graph is reproduced in Figure 3,
using a solid line.
The Asaoka plots for the monitored timesettlement data of
Figure 3 are sketched in Figure 4 using t of one year and
assessment periods of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 45 years. It can be
seen in Figure 4 that, as the consolidation process continues, and
more data points are introduced into the Asaoka plot, the
predicted ultimate settlement increases. Note that the best-fitted
line to the data points on the Asaoka plot is quite sensitive to the
number of data points used.
The effects of time interval and assessment period on the
estimated final settlement have been well described in more detail
by Arulrajah et al. (2004).
4. Extracting creep settlements
It is assumed that the settlement of a preloaded layer due to creep
can be obtained using Equation 3. In other words, if xi is the
monitored settlement at t t i , then, according to Equation 3, the
creep-related portion of the settlement is
ti
Sc xi log
4: t0
Table 1 summarises the equations of the best-fitted lines to the
Asaoka plots sketched for the P dataset of Figure 3, using the
same time interval and assessment periods as the Asaoka plots in
Figure 4. The predicted final settlements due to primary con-
solidation (intersection point of the best-fitted line with the 458
line) are also presented in Table 1.
The reduced variation in the predicted final primary settlement in
Table 1, compared with Figure 4, shows that the best-fitted line is
relatively independent of the assessment period, especially
beyond 15 years. As a result, the predicted final settlement due to
primary consolidation can be assumed to be insensitive to the
assessment period. This means that this settlement can be
predicted with better accuracy, even in the early stages of
preloading.
5. Shape of the best-fitted curve to Asaoka
plots
Since the P dataset conforms better to the assumptions of
Terzaghi theory, it fits on a unique straight line on the Asaoka
plot. This unique line can be defined using
6: X i AX i1 B
in which A and B are constants. Substituting Equation 5 in
Equation 6 and rearranging gives

in which
7: xi axi1 b
HC 9

ST
in which

Hence, if Xi is the settlement due to primary consolidation only

at t i , then 1  log t i1 =t0
aA
8: 1  log t i =t0
ti
X i xi  xi log for i 0, 1, 2, . . ., n
5: t0 and

Thus, if we have n + 1 settlementtime readings,(xi , t i ) for i 0, Assessment Best-fitted line R2 Predicted

1, 2, . . ., n, then Equation 5 gives n + 1 primary consolidation period: settlement:
settlementtime data points, (Xi , t i ) for i 0, 1, 2, . . ., n. years m

10 y 0.8582x + 0.0540 0.995 0.38

As stated before, ST in Equation 5 is unknown: hence, by
15 y 0.8755x + 0.0507 0.997 0.41
assuming an initial value of say 1.3 m for ST , the data for primary
20 y 0.8844x + 0.0488 0.998 0.42
consolidation settlement against time, or P data, can be created
25 y 0.8932x + 0.0467 0.998 0.44
using Equation 5 for the Ska-Edeby test field. If the predicted
30 y 0.8969x + 0.0458 0.998 0.44
final settlement, which is assessed later in this paper, is different
45 y 0.9011x + 0.0447 0.998 0.45
from the assumed value for ST , then a new value for ST must be
assumed and the calculations must be repeated. The P dataset for Table 1. Summary of Asaoka plots using timeprimary
the Ska-Edeby test field is plotted in Figure 3 using a dashed consolidation settlement data from Figure 3
line.

5
Geotechnical Engineering Improving final settlement predictions of
the observational method
Sasar and Haeri

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B 050
b y 0897x 0046
9: 1  log t i =t0 045
R2 1
040

Equation 7 shows the true shape of the curve on which the 035

Settlement (i ): m
monitored settlementtime data points lie on the Asaoka plot.
030
The term a decreases slightly at the beginning, but then remains
essentially the same. The term b, however, increases notably 025
during the entire consolidation process, and might cause serious
020
error if Equation 7 is replaced by a straight line. In Figure 5, the
non-dimensional parameters a/A and b/B are plotted against time. 015

010
6. Predicting final settlement Primary settlement
In order to demonstrate how the data for primary consolidation 005 45 degree line
settlement against time can be used to assess the final settlement
0
and degree of consolidation, the best-fitted line for the assessment 0 005 010 015 020 025 030 035 040 045 050
period of 30 years is selected from Table 1. The first settlement Settlement (i 1): m
reading is then used as a starting point, and by substituting it in
the equation given in Table 1 for 30 years, the next settlement Figure 7. Asaoka plot for P data of Figure 6
reading is reproduced, and so forth. In other words, by substitut-
ing Xi (the primary consolidation settlement at t t i ) in the
mentioned equation, Xi1 (the primary consolidation settlement at t t i1 ) can be obtained. The data reproduced in this manner
are very close to the former P data, but without the imperfections
130
that cause a slight scatter in the data points in the Asaoka plots.
The advantage of this method is that now the data can be
125
reproduced for any desired time duration. In Figure 6 the P data,
120 reproduced in this manner for 125 years, are plotted against time.
Figure 7 shows the Asaoka plot for these data.
a/A, b/B

115
a/A
Theoretically, 100% primary consolidation is never achieved.
110 Hence, as can be seen in Figure 7, the data points will continue
b/B
to draw near the 458 line, but they will not intersect with it.
105 Therefore, in order to set an end to the primary consolidation, a
degree of consolidation of 99.999% is selected as a benchmark
100 for the end of primary consolidation. Reproduction of the data in
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36
Time: year Figure 6 showed that this benchmark is reached after approxi-
mately 125 years.
Figure 5. a/A and b/B against time
The total settlement at any given time could be evaluated by
rearranging Equation 5 to give
Time: year
 
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1
0 xi X i
10: 1  log t i =t0
02

04
Settlement: m

In other words, by using Equation 10 and the (Xi , t i ) data

06
Timeprimary consolidation presented in Figure 6, the total settlement at any given time can
08 settlement data for 125 years be obtained. The total settlements obtained from Equation 10 are
Timetotal settlement data also plotted in Figure 6 against time. In this paper this dataset is
10 for 125 years
referred to as timetotal settlement data or T data. The total
12 settlement obtained in this manner after 125 years is 1.298 m,
which means that the primary assumption about final settlement
14
was acceptably correct. Figure 8 shows that there is good
Figure 6. Data reproduced for 125 years for Ska-Edeby test field agreement between the T dataset and the monitored time
settlement data for 45 years.

6
Geotechnical Engineering Improving final settlement predictions of
the observational method
Sasar and Haeri

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Time: year Pore pressure: kPa

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0 0
After 14 years
02 After 25 years
25 After 45 years
Surcharge load 27 kPa
Settlement: m

04

Depth: m
50
06
75
08

10 100

12 Monitored timesettlement data

Timetotal settlement data for 45 years
Timeprimary consolidation settlement
data for 45 years
Figure 8. Monitored, P and T datasets for 45 years for Ska-Edeby
test field
Note that the new creep-added data (the T data) will no longer
rest on a straight line on an Asaoka plot.
7. Comparison of degrees of consolidation
In order to evaluate the outcome of the proposed method, the
predicted degrees of consolidation obtained from this method are
compared with those evaluated by pore pressure readings in
piezometers. The pore pressures in the clay layer at the Ska-
Edeby test field, test area No. IV, are reproduced in Figure 9. The
piezometric data in Figure 9 yield degrees of consolidation of
54%, 68.7% and 78.7% respectively for 14, 25 and 45 years after
preloading.
With the proposed method, however, the degree of consolidation
at any given time can be obtained by dividing the corresponding
settlement from the T data by the predicted ultimate settlement,
1.3 m. Therefore the new method predicts degrees of consolida-
tion of 58%, 73% and 83% respectively for the same time periods
after preloading.
The predictions from analysing the monitored timesettlement
data with the Asaoka method can also be compared with the
results of the piezometric method. Based on the monitored time
settlement data of Figure 3, the degree of consolidation in the
125
Figure 9. Pore pressures after 14, 25 and 45 years of preloading
in Ska-Edeby test field
Ska-Edeby test field is well above 60% after 30 years of
preloading, and the predicted ultimate settlements in Figure 4
seem to be converging to a constant value at this stage. Hence the
period of assessment of 30 years is quite suitable for the
monitored timesettlement data to be analysed with the Asaoka
method. If shorter periods of assessment were used, the results
obtained from the proposed method would not change notably;
because, as demonstrated earlier, the equation of the best-fitted
line in Table 1 is fairly stable for different assessment periods.
However, since the Asaoka method is very dependent on the
assessment period, its results would change, and the gap between
the results of these two methods would widen.
Nevertheless, the final settlement predicted by the Asaoka
method, using 30 years of monitored timesettlement data, is
1.1 m (see Figure 4). Since the monitored data indicate 0.74, 0.95
and 1.09 m of settlement for 14, 25 and 45 years respectively
after the end of placing the surcharge, the degrees of consolida-
tion are respectively 67%, 86% and 99%. These results are
summarised in Table 2. As can be seen in this table, the obtained
timetotal settlement data agree much better with the piezometric
method.
In practical cases, if the monitored timesettlement data for 30
years are available for use in the Asaoka method, then the
settlement after 45 years is still not known. Hence the Asaoka

Monitored Settlement Degree of consolidation: %

settlement: m from T
dataset: m Piezometric method Proposed method Asaoka method

14 years after preloading 0.74 0.76 54 58 67

25 years after preloading 0.95 0.95 68.7 73 86
45 years after preloading 1.09 1.09 78.7 83 99

Table 2. Comparing predicted and measured degrees of

consolidation for Ska-Edeby test field

7
Geotechnical Engineering Improving final settlement predictions of
the observational method
Sasar and Haeri

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method, unlike the proposed method, cannot predict degrees of
consolidation beyond the duration over which the settlement
time data are monitored.
Since ST must be evaluated iteratively, this whole process may
seem cumbersome, but for the purpose of this paper a spreadsheet
program was prepared to carry out the entire calculations in a
reasonably short time.
8. Changi East reclamation project in
Singapore
The same methodology is applied to the settlementtime data of
test site A2S-71 in the Changi East reclamation project. Figure
10 shows the monitored timesettlement data up to 12 months
after the end of the preloading period. The thickness of the clay
layer for this site is reported to be 35 m, and the C 9 secondary
consolidation coefficient (estimated in the same manner as
before) is assumed to be 0.007. The data for primary consolida-
tion settlement against time can be obtained using Equation 5.
The Asaoka plot for primary consolidation settlement against
time was drawn using a time interval of 28 days and an
assessment period of 12 months. The equation of the best-fitted
line to the Asaoka plot is then used to obtain timeprimary
consolidation and timetotal settlement datasets in a similar
manner as before. These data series are also shown in Figure 10
for the time period of 12 months after preloading.
consolidation process was much shorter, it might appear that
secondary consolidation has a negligible effect. Nevertheless,
even in this case better final settlement predictions and better
degree of consolidation estimations (more compatible with the
piezometric data) were achieved. Table 3 presents the degrees of
consolidation for 12, 24 and 32 months after the end of
preloading calculated using the piezometer method, and the
predicted degrees of consolidation for the Asaoka and proposed
methods.
Equation 3 was obtained for a clay layer under constant surcharge
load. The poor agreement between the monitored timesettlement
data and the obtained timetotal settlement data during the
preloading period (when the surcharge is being gradually applied)
indicates that Equation 3 probably does not provide a good
estimate of creep settlements when load is being applied
gradually. Timetotal settlement data show noticeably higher
settlements during this period.
By reproduction of the P and T datasets for the A2S-71 test site,
the proposed method predicted that the defined benchmark for
the end of primary consolidation would be reached approximately
8 years after the end of the preloading period resulting in a final
settlement of 1.84 m. Using the same time interval and assess-
ment period, the Asaoka method would predict a final settlement
of 1.72 m for the site.

Since vertical drains were used in this site, and the whole 9. Conclusion
The possible role of secondary consolidation in the miscalcula-
Time: day tion of final settlement by the Asaoka method has been illu-
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 strated. Without any adjustments to the timesettlement data,
0
Monitored timesettlement data prediction of the ultimate settlement with the Asaoka method is
02 Timetotal settlement data in error, especially for the early stages of preloading. As the
04 Timeprimary consolidation
loading proceeds, and more timesettlement data are acquired,
Settlement: m

settlement data
06 the ultimate settlement predicted by the best-fitted line to Asaoka
08
plot approaches the actual value of ultimate settlement.

10
End of surcharge It was argued that settlement due to creep starts from the
12 placement period beginning of the consolidation process, and increases with time.
14 Because of the presence of creep, the timesettlement data points
Figure 10. Monitored, P and T datasets for 12 months after end do not stay on a straight line on the Asaoka plot. As more data
of preloading period for A2S-71 test site points are introduced to the Asaoka plot, they tend to incline the
trend of the fitted line towards the actual ultimate settlement.

Monitored Settlement Degree of consolidation: %

settlement: m from P
dataset: m Piezometric method Proposed method Asaoka method

12 months after preloading 1.32 1.35 79.7 73.2 76.7

24 months after preloading 1.54 1.57 83 84.2 89.2
32 months after preloading 1.66 1.67 86.2 87.9 96.3

Table 3. Comparing predicted and measured degrees of

consolidation for A2S-71 test site

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 Geotechnical Engineering
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Author copy for personal use, not for distribution
Deriving the Asaoka equations again, using more sophisticated
theories that do consider creep settlements, might be very
complicated. Therefore it was assumed that the timesettlement
data can be made to fit better to the assumptions of the Asaoka
method instead. This was accomplished by eliminating creep
settlements from the timesettlement data. By applying the
discussed method to the data available in the literature, it was
concluded that all timeprimary consolidation settlement data
points on Asaoka plots remain on approximately the same unique
straight line from the beginning, and appear to predict the
ultimate settlement due to primary consolidation only. (Primary
consolidation settlement data are monitored settlement data minus
settlement due to creep.)
The creep settlements were then reincorporated into this dataset,
and the final settlement was estimated with greater accuracy. It
was shown that with this method, unlike the traditional Asaoka
method, the ultimate settlement could be estimated with higher
accuracy, even in the early stages of consolidation. Additionally,
the proposed method, unlike the Asaoka method, can predict
degrees of consolidation beyond the duration for which the
settlementtime data are monitored.
The degree of consolidation obtained by the Asaoka method is
not in good agreement with the piezometric data, except in the
early stages of consolidation, when creep settlements are small.
This also seems to be the result of increasing creep settlements.
The degree of consolidation assessed with piezometric data seems
to be more reliable; because pore pressures are assumed to be
dependent on the primary consolidation only, regardless of the
amount of secondary consolidation occurring during the consoli-
dation process. By applying the discussed modification, the
predicted degrees of consolidation are in better agreement with
the piezometer method.
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